The evening telegraph. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1864-1918, 1867-10-21
Political Prospects.


.rs,oined in every election that has occurred
during this year, amounting to positive defeats
In Connecticut. California, and Pennsylvania,
and loss equivalent to defeat IN Ohio make
n necessary to survey the whole neld, ana
consider dispassionately What PouIloat oVuise
AZ country is likely tO-take, what probability
- is of The restoration of the Democrats to
'aov-er and what effect such an event may
have upon the country.
Tbo actnal losses of the Republicans are
Governor in each of the states of Connecticut
and California, seven members OF the House
of Representatives, and two United states
Senators. The dimnutiOn OF the Republican
majority in the States which have thus far
voted. as compared with last year, is in round
numbers lO7, 900, viz.:-l6,000 in Maine, 1900
In New Hampshire; 2700 in Vermont, 1000 in
Rhode Island, 1900 in Connecticut, 10000 in
Pennsylvania, 40, 600 in Ohio, 900 in Iowa,
and $4,000 in California, There is every
reason to suppose that the States which hold
elections in November will increase this figure
TO 200 600, or about one-halt Of the entire Re
publican majority in the Northern States.
The result of the election in New York may
easily be foreseen. The Democratic majOrities
in New York and Brooklyn will be reduced
nearly 10000 by the light vote, but the Re.
publican maioTites in the interior (amouuting
last year TO 100000 will be reduced by 30, 600
or &C, 600. In each of the counties of Albany,
Rensselaer,, and st. Lawrence there will be
Republican loss of some 1000 votes, in each of
a dozen strong Republican counties, such as
Allegheny, Cayuga, Chautauqua Onondaga,
etc., there will be loss of 1000 votes or more,
and a smaller loss in almost every other
county. This leaves the Democratic ticket
majority in the State of from 1000 to Is 900,
which, unless some unexpected change occurs
before the election, it is tolerablY certain to
have.
These unfavorable results, however, are by
no means conclusive indications of the pros
pect for 1868. The Democrats have made no
actual gain in votes, except in Connecticut.
Their victories have been won in consequence
of the apathy or temporary disgust of Repub-
loans. Ofcourse it is impossible for the Re-
publican party to act so unwisely as to drive
into the opposite ranks those who have this
year simply stayed at home. But, unless
great follies are committed New York and
Indiana are the only large States which can
be doubtful in 1865; and the Republican can
didate is sure to carry $50 of the 247 electoral
votes now recognized. If the South is recon-
structed on the Congressional plan (and its
vote upon any other basis will not be counted),
the Republican majority will be increased.
Supposing however, that by the detection of
Pennsylvania and Illinois, as we'll as New
York and Indiana, a Democratic President
should be elected, with House of Represen-
tatives in sympathy with him, the Republi-
cans have "a of the "a Senators antil 1871
beyond doubt, with moral certainty of re-
tanning 80 until 1873 and a certainty that may
fairly be called absolute of retaining II Sena-
tors until that time.
1878, thirteen until 1871, and of those who
retire in 1869 six are from the States of Maine,
Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Rhode
Island, and Vermont, which no one can pre-
tend to consider doubtful, and one from Ten
nessee, who will be chosen by the present
Legislature within few days. OF the Sena-
tors retiring in 1871 seven are from Iowa,
Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts,, Michigan, Min
nesota Ca Johnson mani, and Rhode Island,
which are not doubtful States, besides two
from New Hampshire and Tennessee. Our
figures are, therefore, inside the bounds of
reasonable certainty. If the Southern States
are restored, it will be with at least ten Re-
publican Senators (from Alabama, Florida,
Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina)
out of the twenty to which they will be enti-
tied, and probably more.
Thus it appears certain that the policy of
Congress cannot be reversed for six years to
come except by change OF views within the
lines of the Republican party or by some act
of revolutionary violence. Against the latter
danger we are protected for at least another
year by the fortunate circumstance that the
%overnors of all the great central States, hav-
ing at their command all the available militia
force of the country, are thoroughly in
sympathy with Congress, and would bring
powerful and well-organjzed body of troops
to its aid in case OF any outbreak. This con-
sideration has made the result in Ohio, where
alone governor was elected this month, one
of great Importance. If the Democratic can
didate had been elected there, Mr. johnson
might have felt much more disposed to try
issues with Congress than he will feel now.
The moral effect of defeat this fall is, upon
the whole likely to be healthy to the Repub-
hcan party. Its leaders will surely see the
necessity of greater discretion, of using wiser
means to attain the desired end of abandoning
schemes of local and private advantage, and Of
concentrating all the power of the party upon
the main issues. The last point has become
plain to them, and it is cleapthat some minor
issues are to be abandoned. Whether Penn
sylvanians can reconcile themselves to the
obvious determination of the West to resist
any further increase of the tariff and whether
the West can refrain from tampering with the
currency to the ruin of the East, are questions
yet undetermined. A wise forbearance upon
all questions uneonnected with reconstruction,
and vigorous enforcement of the policy o1
reconstruetion already inaugurated, will yet
give the Republicans victory in 1868.
II, as we hear is the general wish of the
party IN the West, and of a large portion OF
~ In the East, Mr.. Pendleton is to be the
Democrauc candidate in 1868, the national
Creult Wlu pe at stake in the contest, even
Mr.. PendletOn's financial tbeories ara M
doubtedly popular within his own marty and
may please some thOughtless Repnblicans in
the West where comparatively little of tbe
national debt is held The manarars of a.,