New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1867-01-17
BUSINESS PROSPECTS FOR 1867.


II,
baen ssnployed 60 Gil void created 10y he war, the
hino nosi needed ior the country is tho conviction
tNot n is entering period of severe financial tla'
end tbot NO contrivances OF legislation can aycrtlI
As vet It refuses 10 look this unwelCome fact ia
The face But we must come 20 this point IL Is 'ic
only solid groundwork on which we have 20 S'ai'o
We arc not going to pass from a tremendous war 20
n State of peace without shock. Ii Is MOI III 'n'
nature OF things II has not been our own eN
II has not been the experience OF other n"tiohS'
have only 10 reflect that we have Just loS' "
for the products Of our industry who mas SN"i'V'
five hundred six hundred seven hViIdio"
dollars annually, 10 know that mat loSS VIZ -
ort IN the market and that that elut must De i"i-
i,,sd ~, fan in prices and that this fall OF prices
n,,st bring stanation 10 trade for nobody buys on
e.n,oe ,osrtetl loss to all vendors, and ruin TO
many This cessation OF demand OIL
itself creates pressure, IeVuslon'
oollaDse a break down in the mercantile "orlo
here is no help for it except in the substitution Oh
new customer OF new customers TO take the place
nj the old Bnt these never come fast enough III
tho natural order to prevent such results Ana tns
their avoidance is impossible. his country ana
every country, must experience them III suoii
i,ansition ne that through which arc passing
And what the nation has need 10 40 Is 10 rouse Ish
from the vain delusion the toIpor and soth of the
essential difficulties and sacrifices that nhere IN our
condition, and moro especially must it discard the
belief that the miserable eXpedient OF an excessive
and irredeemable paper circulation can DO made an
efficient means of relieving the country from the Dur
hens imposed and the conditions created 10y On eN-
bensive and cxhaustingwar
II is So difficult 20 say anything about paper money
that has not been said before that one inyountauy
shrinks from the topic. The man who could invent
brief sol of terms exposing at once the virtues ana
vices of an excessive paper circulation showing wheh
and where IL is good and when and where u Is Dau'
would be public benefactor. The public mind Is
always in haze ON the subject and as 1t cannot OF
wllnot study the question Though instructive essays
a. soe,ns essential that some formula of the truth
should be invented to bore through and let daylight
In mon tho general understanding. Then there
ia this unhappinoss. In their attempts
10 elucdate the subject, even our best ana most
Thoroughly grounded writer's advance very misty ana
eauiyocal positions, while those who know nothing
about the subject are always darkening counsel by
words without knowledge. Let not this remark De-
taken as reproach To say one knows nothing OIL
finance is no more than 10 say that he knows nothing
of law or surgery. II is reproach to the man who
has no taste or talent for either or who has never
made either study.
But eyen IL theory is discarded our experience is
amply sufficient to show that our paper money
aystem lie fountain Of mischief. We know thatt
prompts speculation and supports it in way most
injurious to consumers that it deranges regular
trade that il is the food Of the gamblers ofStbe
Stock Exchange and that it involves every knd'of
business in paIIexty 1t makes the return OF rcgu-
lar industry uncertain and by so doing discourages
its exercise It's fluctuations in its relations to gold
and silver constantly disturb prices, and are daily
end hourly nuisance by making every act OF trade
m
IL we may not undertake the tedious task Of expos
inQ errors and endeavoring to define specifically
what Ia difficult Of brief definition we can at the
least hold fast to few clear ideas Of what our paper
circulation has not done and cannot do. We have
already seen it has not created the individual wealth
accumulated during the war, and we know it cannot
create consumers. 1t is poweTless to couneract the
mighty laws Of supply and demand, even to the OK
tent OF maintaining exorjtant prices. as has been
shown in the fall of leading articles OF consumption
already enumerated.
The difficulty Is that even these simple truths
ignored. People see a great growth OF individual
wealth along with the expansion of the paper ciIcu
latiOn aud they viii insist seeing in the two nothing
but cause and effect. They oppose the contraction
of the currency Oh the ground that if il is contracted
business will be reduced and prices fall. They are
not conented with this buigo further and hold that
if the currency is not diminished, that trade VIII not
suffer and prices will not fall. And herein is their
vital mistake, What is wanted to keep trade active
aud business good and prices high, is demand and
consumption. and this is just what paper money is
powerlcss TO furnish Unless the demand FOR com
moditics is kept up, trade must slacken, business
must decrease, and prices must fall Thus If this ma
ton is not going to much aud destroy much
of the products of industry in peace it has done in
war. these results sure to happen This, it would
seem. mast be apparent to everybody Whether
there il any dmunitiOn of the circulating medium
not it is inevitable that must have period Of de-
preston and prostratiOn. Upon this period We are
only Just beginning to enter As yet there is
whelniug pressure upon Congress for relief, and
there may not be during this session. But it is sure
to come D the end win a tremendous clamor, The
new system of National banks will furnish lever
ago such as was never yet brought to bear Onthst
body IL is not the habit Of Congress TO resist great
pressure and IL is TO be proved that its character has
undergone a change On the assumption that paper
money has done the country much good it. viii nat
urally be urged that it should have more At the
least II will be insisted that it shall have less
Aud when it is seen, it viii be- that prices con-
tinue to fall and that trade.gets more and more de
pressed this inevitable result Of transition from
state OF 70 state Of peace win be still pointed
TO az an evidence OF the necessity of the remedy pro-
posed.
II il were not for the mischief arising from delay
itight he worth while TO wait The progress of events
under the present inflated state Of the currency,
without enforcing any Of the plans for its dininu-
ton. for tho purpose of demonstrating that we
not DO saved nom loss and depression and saenatOn
arising from diminished demand and the fall Of
prices. through the agency of adcpreciaed currency.
But tho country cannot afford this loss of time sim
ply to refute false ideas and erroneous theories.
In brief th(snatiou beq 1,se.r IT. Z. ,.1;ol,