New-York tribune., 1867-03-23
NEW VAR CLOUDS IN EUROPE.

NEW WdR CLOUDS IN EUROPE
The conclusion of military treaty between
Prussia, Bavaria, and Baden, seems to have
alarmed the French Government The import
anco of that treaty is fully understood in Paris.
Able writers on military affairs who are regarded
in French literature as An authority. have made
the calculation that the French Government will
need at least five years for raising its army to
the number (about t900,000) which Prussia, IN
union with the South German States, will have
all ready next year. There is moreover, this
great difference between the German and the
French armies, that the minor German States
accept on the whole cheerfuly the stringent
military law of Prussia, regarding it as indls-
pensable for completing the unity OF Ger
many, while in France the popular dlssatistac-
ton with the army reorganization bill has been
so strong IA to compel the Government to
promise modification. In such circumstances
it is natural that the Germans should feel elated,
and that the French Government should ser1-
ousy contemplate the possibility of having to
act on the defensive against Prussia.
The Cable dispatch in this mornings issue
announcing that Napoleon favors Confedera-
ton of France, Holland, Belgium. and Switzer-
land, against Prussia. has, therefore, grave
significance. Among the larger powers of Eu-
rope there il none OH the alliance of which
France could depend in the case of great
war. In England no Ministry would dare to
propose a participation in Continental war.
Italy sympathizcs more with Prussia than with
France, and lthe Italian Government would
find il difficult to resist the popular demand
should be embarrassed by foreign war. AZ
regards Russia, France cannot easily make
as many concessions to that Power ~ the
Prussian Government has done. Prussia If
understood TO leave to Russia entire lib
erty of action with regard to Turkey, and
TO have refused, recently, to protest against
the incorporation of the Kingdom of Poland
IL France refrains from entering n solemn pro-
test against these measures. she does 40 WIN
unconcealed reluctance; and ~ for coming 10
full agreement with Russia on the Eastern
and the Polish questions, that is almost impos-
sible Austria. in fine. il fully aware that she
has TO fear more from Prussia than from
France. ANY territorial compensation that she
can possibly obtain for her losses since 1859
she must expect in South Eastern Europe, and
it is therefore. significant fact that since the
appointment of Baron Won Beust TO the Prime
Ministry the former friendship of Austria for
Turkey has been exchanged for open efforts TO
court the friendship of Russia.
If France desired allies against Prussia none
other were left than those minor Governments
referred to in the Cable dispatch of yester-
day. All these Governments are filled with
fear at the ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Of Prussia. The
press of Holland and Belgium, in particular,
have shown hostility against Prussia well
calculated TO call forth aggressive designs If
none existed before. 1t would not be surpris-
ing if Napoleon had offered to these States to
enter into a military relation TO France similar
10 the one in which the South German States
find themselves with regard TO Prussia. Nor
can it be doubted that the Governments of the
three small States mentioned would be glad to
be assured of the patronage of Power like
France. But will not the fate of Hanover warn
them against committing themselves to an
alliance which Prussia, in case of a war, could
not fail to regard and to treat as an act of
| hostility
1t is apparent that the relation of Prussia to
its Western neighbors already constitutes a
serious complication. This complication be-
comes more serious in proportion to the
greater progress that is made in the consoli-
daton of German unity There is, moreover,
an immediate cause of dispute, which may
ut any moment be used by either of the
opposite parties for bringing on a conflict
the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. This
country formerly belonged to the German
Confederation and was at the same time sub
ject to the King of Holland. Prussia con-
sented to release the Dutch Province of Linz
burg, which likewise belonged to the German
Confederation, from all connection with recon
structed Germany, but insisted on her right to
garrison the fortress of Luxemburg, which is
one of the strongest on the French frontier.
Holland has not yet dared to oppose this de-
mand though she does not conceal her wish
to order the Prussians out. An alliance be-
tween France and Holland would, therefore,
be almost sure to create very unpleasant rela-
tons between these two Powers on the one
hand and Prussia on the other. ..
The Government is making active nrenara