Baltimore daily commercial. [volume] (Baltimore, Md.) 1865-1867, 1866-04-27
THE NEXT COTTON CROP.

whether most of those assuming to be best
posted have not been from the first seriously
at fault in their estimates; and that heavy
losses must be the consequence to many be-
fore the true facts are reached. 1t seems
plain that from the first moment Of throwing
open the Southern ports, the calculations as to
quantity have been, steadily, far too small
Whilst million to fifteen hundred thousand
bales has generally been the outside figure of
what would come forward, it now appears that
about two millions of bales have already been
realized, and this at a period in the season
when it may be expected that more besides
will yet be developed, still further deranging
the views of the majority of spectators who
seem all this time to have been confidently
looking for the supply to cease.
Remembering that most of these short est.
mates have emanated from men like Mr.. De
Bow, whose views have been extensively
quoted as well based, because of their sup
posed thorough acquaintance with Southern
resources; that these views must have been
unduly clouded by thorough want of faith in
the new order OF events at the South, and we
thus have the undoubted cause of their mac
Curacy; the conviction that with the old sys-
tenn of working upset, nothing approximating
former success in production could be o..
tanned. We believe that the South is pretty
certain to dlsappoint people all around. We
are learning now how much of wealth in the
way of raw cotton was locked up in the South
through the war, despite the loss and derange.
ment of labor, and parallel herewith, the scot.
ton burning exploits, based upon orders issued
from Richmond; and we have yet to learn how
much OF a stimulus to the producing classes
white, as well as black down there's the
present enormous high price-comparative
such as must multiply production, and bring
everybody that can WELD the hoe into the field
TO strike for a good return.
Besides, 1t could not but be the fact that so
soon after the close of the war, with all the
facilities for compiling accurate statistics de-
ranged or destroyed, all attempts at true esti-
mates must have been mere guess work. The
receipts at the chief cotton ports; he CORES
pondence OF factors with their principals; the
gatherings periodically of planters at the cities
to which they were in the habit Of consigning
their produce, and so on, was ended; and IN
place OF this, we had a few newspaper cores
ponuents traversing at wide distances the cot,
ion region, throwing out bold coniectures, but
sadly wanting in pretty much all that could
enable the world at large to form right con-
illusions
Even the shrewdest capitalists at the North
we happen to knOw-have been sadly mis-
ied-msLed to their serious loss-even bv the
best Informed agents they could send on
special missions to learn something reliable as
t" the stock on hand; and now with the market
declining heavily under the pressure 10 sell,
the quantity actually available, we have in the
held new set Of guessers at the coming crop;
and again the estimates appear ridicuIouslv
low, when all the facts are to be considered in
the case.
Let it be noted that the old fallacy taught in
order to keep white men out of the cotton
helds, has been so thoroughly exploded by the
hundreds of thousands of Northerners who
nave recently campaigned in the South that
with such of those as have seen in the chance
10 cultivate cotton good return, such falIacv
mas no force whatever. Remembering that
the cultivation of cotton was considered as
paying when 'middlings, "uplands," brought
no moreo than seven to eight cents, and what
must be the stimulus to such of the Ipoor
whites as the war has left, who in the olden
time depended upon their cotton patches for
any ''store goods or other Injuries thew
might hope to obtain? All these are of course
Ia the held, along with heavy reinforcements
from the North, besides; and although large
numbers OF the larger plantations are bereh
OF their labor and broken up so far as cultiva-
non by single proprietor is in the case, vet
rented out into small holdings, the whole will
inevitably swell the stream of production to
an extent such as will astonish the hitherto
believers in small estimates, when the product
comes forward.
We have been led to these remarks unon ,
SUBJECT OF vast interest, when we consider its
direct bearings on our financial future, by
very sensible article in the Mobile Nationalist.
futtng little faith in what has so generally
been advanced as to the probable results of
the coming season, the following are the
writer $ conclusions, after consultation with
intelligent minds from every portion of the
South:
l. mere may be one-third less colored people on
the plantations than before the war: but there ara
enough more white people working, and so much
Aess land proportionay planted in corn sugar rice
&c that there in the cotton fields certainly NOT
less than threequarters the force there was in 1880
:. That while there is certainly mpcb less land
Planteu IMAM formerly it is mostly corn sugar rice
to0dccos &C.. that have been neglected and that at
least hree-tourths much land is planted in cotton
as before the war
o. ina' "hlle IN some few the freedmen are
MOT uoihs we'll they are generally doing more and
DETER WORK tnan when they were held as slaves
4. we cannot tell how much stock. &c. has heen
destroyed but every planter we have seen ia sot;sf
that he has enough, will DO able to prooure II to
cultivate and save his own
D. Inc land has had a rest from cotton for several
years, and, consequently. every agrcuIturst knows
that it must be in condition to produce an increased
crop per acre.
o. We have known many planters to give dismal
accounts from distant States and districts which thev
nad not seen; but We have yet to see one who does
not report matters progressing much more favor
ably In his own neighborhood than he had believed
possible N~
T. having been raised in Georgia, we are as well
ACQUAINTED with the negro as most of his traducers
anu VIC feel confident, from our knowledge Of his
character and from the testimony and experience of
Others that the freedmen will work faithfully to The
eho OF inc season, Disappointing the arcakers as
Nucn merely as they have already done BY going 80
generally TO work ~ OWING ~
O. LIZ Go'.on. raising capacity Of the South had
been regularly increasing before the WA. u,;1 80
crop came to exceed 100000 bales and VII, -
stock, and machinery enough, would eycead that
amount now. 'A1t
From the foregoing premises we cannot sea how =
viii be possible for the forthcoming crop to ia
low 100000 bales, and should not be surprised r. :;
should reach 100000. "
We have come to these conclusions with regret for
We believe that no greater calamity could befaIl the
South than 100000 bales crop of cotton carrying
the price down, as it viii be sure to do, below the
actual cost. at present high prices. of raising it.
We give place to these conclusions with
thorough satisfaction, as foreshadowing a de-
gree OF national prosperity, material adva nee
towards the Reconstruction of the South,
such as will go far to adjust matters before an.
other year rolls around. We were prosperj NO
in the olden time; and with foreign exchans, es
provided for, the national credit sustained, and
other GOOD THINGS in nrosneot +bro,oL Al i