The evening telegraph. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1864-1918, 1866-03-17
the GREAT COTTON QUESTION.

SOuIh-HOw Much Cotton Can bo Raised
E-speeuIRttOns as 90 Probable Prices.
From the NesO orleans Times.
Cotton has become a word to coniure with
Plutus whispers II on Change and the whole
commercial world becomes excited. Many there
are who think OF nothing else. They talk of the
feecy fabric when awake, dream of it when
asleep turn it now into greenbacks, now into
gold and now build with II all sorts of castles
In the air. The cotton crop of 1860 was 1885, s07
bales, Of which about one-fourth was consumed
IN TINS country, leaving the balance, worth at
the old dt.ie bet't1n price about one hundred and
sixty miliens of dollars, to take the place OF
specie in our foreign exchange. 1t is not won
deriul, then, that cotton is regarded as pro-
duct OF great importance, and that in the future
as in the past, 1t is expected TO occupy u prom.
nent position in our industrial and commercial
statistics.
Much speculation exists as to the probable
crop of 1866. Some look for crop of three
mllions of bales, while others again are far
more moderate in their estimate, placing the
prospective crop at million or million and
half. These differences Of opinion arise from
the different views entertained touching the
productive value of free and slave labor. Some
think that the freedman will De more effective
than the slave as an agricultural producer
while others imagine that he Will be almost
worthless.
On this subject we have been favored with
some calculations, made by "a keen statistical
friend OF ours, which we think are well worthy
of beng seriously pondered. The data cannot
certainly be questioned, and all of our readers
are at liberty TO Judge for Themselves OF the cou
. illusions arrived at. II the figures and dedUC.
tions which we are about TO offer tend in any
manner to barmonize commerce, and check the
wild mania OF hazardous speculation, our ann
Will be accomplished.
Numerous correspondents, who appear to be
interested i'll lowering the price of cotton now
held by the producers of the South, coolly state
that al the negroes have gone to work with
energy, and that consequently the cotton crop
of the present year cannot be less than 2,5OO,OOO
or 100000 bales. Persons who make such
4 statements cannot have visited the outskirts of
4 this and other Southern cities where negroes by
I thousands cOngregate, and are living in com
parative iCleness and destitution. There are IN
T this city at present not less than 5000 negro
men and women, who have drilted hither from
the rural districts in order to enjoy the
. imaginary ease and pleasure of city iife.
similar story may be told Of every city and town
" from the Potomac TO the Rio Grande, and the
= total number thus drawn away from agricultural
M employments is indeed enormous.
According to our friends statistical table there
were about 1000, 600 slaves in the South at the
commencement OF the war. 1t was the custom
+ in ancient times to estimate one-tenth of every
nation or tribe as warriors or persons capable OF
r. bearing arms Taking this as basis OF calcula
ton, there were at the beginning of the war
n 4O0, 600 negro men between the ages OF eighteen
= and lorty-ive years. OF that number 100000
entered the army Of tie United States, but the
sword and disease reduced their ranks to 600.
Since the close of the war many OF these have
been disbanded and gene 20 the North and West.
Il
200, 900 who aid not enlist, some perishe1 in the
Confederate service while engaged IN erecting
forts and digging trenches; 100000 are now to
be found in towns and villages throughout the
South, employed on board of steamboats,, in
hotels, or playing the part of independent freed
men. OF the balance, $4,000 removed into the
States where cotton is not produced, and $4,000
n remained at home on the old plantations, and
E5lmost Of them may now be found in the field at
3H work.
N Turning to the opposite SEX we find 400, 600
II bet cen the ages OF eighteen and iorty-6v
IA years. And how shall we account for them?
81 Go, inkshedding Bohemian, to the coast OF Caro-
lima and Georgia. Follow the train OF General
She1man's grand march from the sea to Atlanta.
y Savannah Jackson, Baton Rouge, Monroe,
II Shreveport, Alexandria, and this city. Visit
X the graveyards in our towns and villages, and
ask who sleep there. 1t will be easy to account
for the disappearance of 100000 NEGRO women
n poor, ignorant creatures, who left their homes
to follow triumphant armies, but perished Of cold
hunger, and fatigue ere the bliss of freedom be-
came theirs. We are speaking now of grown-up
women. The children who followed them tell
N by the wayside and slumber in unmarked, un.
81 consecrated graves. To seek guarantees for their
promised freedom. $4,000 have gone North, East,
u and West, and l25, 900 are about towns, cities,
and villages washing, cooking, or following far
less Creditable occupations This would leave
100000 effective female lsborers in the rural dis,
4 tricts. OF boys and girls between the ages oil
ten and eighteen years, there are, perhaps,
Il 100000, half of whom are either employed or
N are loltering about towns and villages. We
Il have, therefore, OF available cotton raisers:-
Negro men, ......................,, 75Ol
Negro women. l50,0Ol
Negro boys and girls r!s...................... oOOC
Total al.......................... .285 OO(
n We must now take into consideration the
numbet of white persons who will devote theii
attention to cotton raising. In the cotton State;
n there were about 250,000 white mon at the com
mencement of the war, who, il so inclined
b Imight have devoted their attention to the rails
- ing of cotton. OF this number 100, 900 have
e peen killed or disabled during the war; but theil
places have to some extent been supplied by the
growth of boys We think that 1t would be
large estimate to allow 100000 white laborer:
for the cottonafields during the present season.
If so, we have total effective torce of 486, ,OO(
cotton rasers.
The next question is how much cotton car
II we reasonably expect to be raised per hand
Statistics show that in l840 with force Of 600 600
laborers, our crop was 1900 600 bales, or three
bales per hand. When the laboring force
II doubled between 1850 and $780, the crop proved
to be 100000 bales, equal TO 81 bales per hand
= What, then sha be our estimate Tor tue presen
year? We must remember that there is a scarcit
of stock and agricultural implements; tina
fences gin-houses, and hGbitations need repair
that food must be provided; that much or tn
rich cotton lands along the Mississippi are no
" yet redeemed from overflow by the rebuilding o
broken levees. Our dependence for crop mus
rest chiefly upon the highland farms which ar
far less productive than those of the lowlands
= All things considered, we cannot expect NOR
than three bales per hand, which would yielC
M l, 400, 900 bales in ALL Now. If it be contende
that this estimate is below the mark, the reade
4 will please remember that we have made II,
calculation for the labor which must necessaril
be devoted TO ether crops-sugar, tobacco, AM
,& rice for instance-nor of that which will b