The New York herald., 1866-09-25
TIE COTTON SUPPLY.



From the Bombay Gazette, August 81
When the American shut OF the supply OF cotton
frJm that continent Indian came into
demand, and the price with the increased demand
From fourpence TO tweny-four pence per ponnd the
staple advanced with scarcely check fall IL prices
Immediately, that shippers in Bombay had itle or
nothing to fear from falling prces and ALL nearly all
the shipments resulted In large profits For three years
this was the state OF the cotton trade In Bombay;
of small risks and large profits. Bombay became i'm
menscly rich, money decreased in value aud there
general prosperity. With the close OF the aud the
opening Of tho American ports Indian cotton began to
fall arully but steadily Aud during receding prices
versed; heavy risks and heavy losses Even now
though singular good fortune has attended upon Indian
cotton maintaining prices far above what must be
garded their normal limit, the tendency upon tho
whole is downward And as the few exceptional cir
cumstances which yet remain to give more than ord
nary vitality to the Indian cotton trade removed
or borne away by tho increasing supplies from other
quarters, prices will, in all probability, continue 10
recede until they reach that limit Mt which the
Indian ryo afford to undcrse his competitors This
limit Is believed to be about hundred rupees per
candy.
The Indian seller has been able TO keep MP prices
penny pound above the quotations of the Liverpool
market, and this has given all the risks and losses
shippers OF the staple. Tho trade has become spccn-
lnve trade depending solely for profits upon rising
market, when, we have shown the market upon the
gence from home and from America, and that intci-
gence has IN nine cases out OF ten proved iusory To
this il must be added shippers helped deceive
themselves by believing what they wished TO believe.
During rising prices, dealing in cotton trade of
good luck; drrns falling prices, it trade Of Ill
luck. Under both conditions 1T q specula-
tive trade, and trade in which tho true CONNER
cai man would join with much caution. Sue
cesses came before the reverses, and perhaps was
not an easy matter 10 persuade that with the
OF the American war prices must down; und it
not an easy matter TO keep down the prices OF cotton in
Bombay while men could be found ready 10 purchase
upon calculations based upon European or American in.
tegcnce. i might be supposed that no true
tile man would buy at high prices Ia falling market.
But how stands tho fact People in Bombay were de.
ceived, and they deuded themselves.
IL. D,,.
temporary rise 10 tue price o. cotton consequent ON the
suspension OF the war in Europe. dealers should be
induced TO reener trade which has proved disastrous
to all who have touched the staple during the last twelve
months The price OF cotton in Bombay has ruled high
snce September last SO high Ia fact to be prohbory
to purchasers FOR sellers here have demanded a least
penny per pound IN excess OF latest quotations There
could be nothing IN this state of the market TO induce
dealers to purchase except the temptations which
from anticipated advances in prices These aniicpa.
lions have not only rot been reazad but prices have
frequently gone down in the interval, carrying wi h
the men who trusted to lckle fortune and 10 the
most reliable information. Dealers have become the
dupcs Of their own cupdity, bindcd against
The voice oI reason. II has apparently been forgotten
that FOR every man wh0so information dealer might
safely rely tbe-o are ten whosa aud object it Is
hts And IL should not he wondered that those who
encourage false confidence do secure n greater num-
bcr OF believers than those who have speculative
object 10 serve; for as already remarked, readily
believe what they wish. In all true honesty
prevails; In all speculative trade rogucry predo,ninacs
IL must be so for n trde the clearer the ring
Of honesty perceived the greater the credit and the
moro sure the success I'M speculation vicons practices
succeed best because they made to operate the
nDwasy and the crcdnlous In endeavoriny TO become
quickly rich without labor prone to forget the
chances that against them and mainly upon
those that are favorable Thus fnd the intelligence
a an insufficient supply Of American cotton September
last received all over India with Confidence and rejoicing
md the occasion taken 10 make heavy purchases in Rom
bay at prices which had already advanced at least
per TO- beyond the Liverpool quotations after that in
teing nee had Influenced the home market The result
OF this confidence is apparent Al the time OF max
ing these purchases tho belief that surats' must an
fellow in tho dcluson that n some respects purchasers
IN Bombay were their deceivers and not that only
forced up the price OF the staple far beyond tho point
OF safety But the false impressions aid originate in
inda; we must search for the first breath Of the inte
sence OF failing supply OF coon in America itself To
give another exainpc:-The other day the intelligence
passed through the cotton world tha. three largest
cotton pr2tucn. Stntes Of America bad been
Inundated aad that The supply oil cotton from those states
would fa considerably short Of what sad pean eSpcc ed
ih intelligence has been received with implicit faith
anu Is treasured up IN the hearts Of intend to
iy theIf luck once moro In september next AZ present
mere ar. nc srelssc..ans ~ sgt.el worth mentioning,
st II may be supposed that intelligence transmitted 10
England aud India thus early could not influence the
price of cotton Ia India. and must therefore be reliable
intelligence. may b. or may not be true that three
cotton growing states haze been partially inundated
hut whether not the touch has been given the
speculative match by the intelligence, and tho Bombay
market will be Influenced n due season There arc The
chances ~ profits on tho '.ruost reabic niornacn'
from America, and there specufaors In India sui-
cien TO do the work OF the American aud at the
The tnofous and the doubting will not long 10 wait
ing for encouraging intelligence, snce there are hun
dreds men wh0sc special business u Is 10 s'rig the
market Let any man who cares 10 satisfy himself
upon the point sit down TO think all that might be
said by spccoas advocate in favor OF rising prices dur
ing ths approaching and no will find difficulty
IN accomplishing his task and above all speoous advo
oates perhaps ibe American Ineiigcnccr stands unri
vailed. when The almighty dollar is the object Of ambition
The inelliS iSenee OF defective supply of cotton from
America during the past has not been verified to
the extent which supposed and the ..nunda-
IA.
tion. But there IS nothing in the past and pre-
sent prices OF cotton 10 bring the trade within the
limits OF commerce. The dspropofiion Of the pre-
waiting prices between Bombay and Liverpool must make
the risk TO all shippers except speculatcr prohibtory,
and unless cotton be purchased In tho Bombay
market during tho approaching season Al prices which
are likely TO leave margin of pronf, without counting
the chances Of rise In prices In consequence OF any
unknown supposed failure In the supply OF cotton
from Amcnra, Il 10 not probable that mercantile
will have anything 10 do with trade which at
present conducted (buying In the dearest and selling IN
tho cheapest markc bids fair to bring ruin upon all who
may engage in It.
II must be remembered that the ryot aud the middle
man the wealthy this side OF India In the
present time and that they chiefly instrumental In
maintaining Bombay prices and thus rendering the
trade extremely risky 70 all but themselves