The daily phoenix. [volume] (Columbia, S.C.) 1865-1878, 1866-03-18
The Coming Cotton Crop.

JunuS fOppe. ANDERSON y. d.
The Coming Cotton Crop.
Much has been said and written
respecting the amount of cotton that
would be produced in the United
States the present year. Some writer's
have put it rs high as two-thirds Of
crop, while others have contented
themselves with half crop. Our
estimate is 100000 to 1900, 900
bales-what we term little over the
fourth of q crop-the fourth of the
crop of 1861, which we set down at
100000 bales. This is a high figure,
and may possibly be little over the
mark.
In proof OF the correctness of our
estimate, we will state few incon-
testible facts. Louisiana, Arkansas,
Mississippi, West Tennessee and
Alabama have been the great cotton
producing regions. They have been
relied on for over three millions of the
crop. What is their condition now :?
In the rich and productive territories
of Louisiana, Mississippi, West Ten
nessee and the valley of the Tennes-
see in North Alabama, what of African
labor was left by the Federal army is
completely demoralized, and is COM
posed of the old and infrm, the
women and children. The larger half
Of the labor that cultivated the crop
of 1860-'61 are absent. Some are
dead, some are in the army, and
many have congregated in the towns
and cities, seeking employment more
agreeable to them than field labor.
In South Alabama it is thought
African labor is in better trim. There
the absent from field labor are not so
numerous, but from the best informa-
ton we can gather from the produc-
tive sections of South Alabama, Afri-
can labor is much demoralized, and
those who have contracted for planta-
ton service cannot be relied upon for
more than half of the service they did
perform while in slavery. Even there
one-fourth to one-third of the labor
ers are absent from plantation service.
In Georgia, we are satisfied not
more than the third of the crop of
1861 can be relied on. Planters will
make an effort, and possibly large
surface will be planted with cotton,
but we believe the labor cannN
be relied on in the crisis of the
crop, and as consequence grass will
become master of the situation, and
much will have to be abandoned.
In South Carolina, as also in Geor-
gia, the valuable sea island lands are
in possession of the negroes, and but
little can be expected from that quar-
ter. En- the interior OF South Caro-
lima, African labor has been greatly
demoralized by the presence of negro
troops, so much so that but little
labor will be got out of those even
who contract, and but little cotton
can be looked for from that State.
These are facts we'll known to all
who are acquainted with the condi-
ton in which the war had left the
cotton region, and the disposition of
the negro as q reliable laborer under
the present system.
We have been induced to write
this article from having seen hume
rous speculative opinions sent abroad
by correspondents and commercial
firms whose opinions heretofore were
entitled to credit, but whose present
want Of knowledge of the situation"
totally units them to be reliable ad
visers. When the planter could con-
troll the labor at command, he knew
precisely how many acres of land he
could plant and successfully cultivate,
and it was an easy matter to estimate
from former data-the seasons being
equal-within few thousand bales
Of the amonnt OF cotton that would
be produced.
Such is not the case under the
changed labor system. We are salts
fed that not only the prospective. crop
has been largely over-estimated, but
that the stock of old cotton on hand
in this country has also been over
estimated. These are matters of Sc
rious import to our people in a pecu-
mary point. Ever since the erroneous
estimates have been going forward,
cotton has manifested downward
tendency abroad, and many on This
side Of the water have sustained he; w
losses. We do not charge any one
with having Intentionally misrepre-
sented in this matter-we have more
charity for them. But we do charge
them with ignorance OF the true state
Of the situation.
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