Daily union and American. [volume] (Nashville, Tenn.) 1865-1866, 1866-04-06
THE GREAT CoTroN QUESTION

From the New Orleans IInes.I
Much speculation exists as to the probable
crop Of 1866. Some look for crop of three
millions of bales, whilst Others again are far
more moderate in their estimate, placing the
prospective crop at a million or a million
and half These differences of opinion
arise from the different views entertained
touching the productive value of free and
slave labor. Some think that the freedman
will be more effective than the slave as an
agricultural producer, while others imagine
that he will be almost worthless.
On this subject we have been favored with
some calculations, made by keen statistical
friend of ours, which we think are well
worthy of being seriously pondered. The
data cannot certainly be questioned, and all
Of our readers are at liberty to judge for
! themselves Of the conclusions arrived at. If
| the figures and deductions which we are
about to offer tend in any manner to har-
monte commerce, and check the wild mania
| of hazardous speculation, our aim will be
accomplished.
Numerous correspondents, who appear to
be interested in lowering the price of cotton
now held by the producers of the South'
coolly state that all the negroes have gone
to work with energy, and that consequently
the cotton crop of the present year can not
be less than 100000 or 100000 bales.
Persons who make such statements can not
have visited the outskirts Of this and other
Southern cities, where negroes by thousands
congregate, and are living in comparative
idleness and destitution. There are in this
city at present not less than $4,000 negro
men and women, who have drifted hither
from the rural districs in order 10 enjoy the
imaginary ease and pleasure OF city life. A
similar story may be told Of every city and
town from the Potomac to the Rio Grande,
and the total number thus drawn away from
agricultural employments is indeed enor-
nous.
According to our friends statistical table
there were about 100000 slaves in the
South at the commencement OF the war. 1t
was the custom in ancient times to estimate
one-tenth of every nation or tribe as war
riors or persons capable Of bearing arms.
Taking this as basis of calculation, there
were at the beginning of the war 100000
negro men between the ages of eighteen and
forty-fve years. OF that number 100000
entered the army Of the United States, but
the sword and disease reduced their ranks
to 100000 Since the close Of the war many
have been disbanded and gone to the North
and West The remainder are in the army
still. OF the 100000 who did not enlist,
some persisted in the Confederate service
while engaged in erecting forts and
digging trenches; 100000 are now to be
found in towns and villages throughout the
South, employed on board of steamboats,, in
hotels, or playing the part of independent
freedmen. OF the balance, $4,000 removed
into the States where cotton is not produced,
and $4,000 remained at home on the old
plantations, and most of them may now be
found in the field at work.
Turning to the opposite sax, we find 400,-
600 between the ages of eighteen and forty
five years. And how shall we account for
them? Go, ink-shedding Bohemian, to the
coast Of Carolina and Georgia. Follow the
train of General Sherman's grand march
from the sea to Atlanta. Go to Mobile,
Nashville, Memphis, Vicksburg, Savannah,
Jackson, Baton Rouge, Monroe, Shreveport,
Alexandria and this city. Visit the grave
yards in our towns and villages, and ask
who sleeps there. 1t will be easy to account
for the disappearance of 100000 negro wo-
men-poor, innorant creatures who left their
homes to follow triumphant armies, but per-
ished of cold, hunger and fatigue ere tie
bliss of freedom became theirs. We are
speaking now of grown-up women. The
children who followed them fell by the way
side, and slumber in unmarked, unconsecra-
ted graves To seek guarantees for their
promised freedom, %, 600 have gone North,
East and West, and 125, 900 are about towns
cities and villages, washing, cooking, or fol-
lowing far less creditable occupations. This
would leave 10000 effective female labor
ers in the rural districts. OF boys and girls,
between the ages of ten and eighteen years.
there are, perhaps, 10000, half of whom
are either employed, or are lettering about
towns and villages. We have therefore, Of
available cotton raiSers
Negro I0.UUO
Negro women. ,OOO
Totnl............................. $4,000
We must now take into consideration the
number of white persons who will devote
their attention to cotton raising. In the
cotton States there were about 100000
white men at the commencement of the
war, who, if so inclined, might have de-
voted their attention to the raising of cot
ton. OF this number 100000 have been
killed or disabled during the war, but their
places have TO some extent been supplied
by the growth Of boys. We think that it
would be large estimate to allow 100000
white laborers for the cotton fields during
the present season. If so, we have total
effective force of ass, 900 cotton raisers.
The next question is-how much cotton
can be reasonably expected to be raised per
hand When the laboring force doubled
between 1850 and 1860, the crop proved to
be 100000 bales, equal to q bale. per
hand. What, then,. shall be our estimate
for the present year? We must remember
that there is a scarcity of stock and agriCul-
tural implements; that fences, gin-houses
and habitations need repair that food must
be provided; that much of the rich cotton
lands along the Mississippi are not yet re-
deemed from the overflow by the rebuilding
Of broken levees. Our dependence for a
crop must rest chiefly upon the highland
farms, which are far less productive than
the lowlands.
All things considered, We cannot expect
more than three bales per hand, which would
yield l, 400 bales in all. Now if it be
contended that this estimate is below the
mark, the reader will please remember that
we have made no calculation for the labor
which must necessarily be devoted to other
crops-sugar, tobacco and rice, for instance
nor that which will be turned to mechan-
les and stock raising. These employments
will certainly absorb all that remains Of the
physical, laboring power which the South
ern States can at present boast. With all
these facts before US, it would be vain to eI-
pect cotton crop Of more than million
and half Of bales.
Let not the commercial and manufacture
ing world be deceived by the loose calcula-
tions of Freedmen's Bureaus or interested
spectators. Nor will lido to base an argu-
ment on the amount on hand at the close OF
the war-that was made up from the saw
ings and hidings during.ive long years from
the torehman and the plunderer. The few
bales that the planter now has he should not
sacrifice at existing rates. He need not be
frightened by nightmare crop Of three mil
lion bales. No such crop will be produced
either this year or next. What will be pro-
duced in 1868 we will not pretend to say. 1t
is enough at present. to know that we cannot
raise crop exceeding 100000 bales this
year, and as the demand for our staple will
be much greater than the supply, the price
will assuredly advance. We stake our pro-
fessional reputation on the correctness of
our general conclusions in the premises.
GEN. JOHN c. DRECKINRTDGE.
The Petersburg Express Of yesterday con-
tains the following: We have intelligence
direct from Toronto, Canada, where General
Breckenridge is now residing. He saystha