, 1866-04-27

Sl53,476 ,O44, and it is Increasing now at
o fearful rate.
1t. is unpleasant to have to write in
this way of the prospects of trade in
America but the alarm in all CONNER
cial circles here makes it necessary that
the warning should be given. America
now is overstocked with goods prices
are falling, merchants are panic-stricken,
failures are frequent, and will become
more frequent the Protectionists, to
relieve themselves, are using all their
enormous power to have the tariff of
duties on foreign goods increased !; the
political strife in Congress has killed
every measure devised by Secretary
M'CuIloch for the financial relief of the
country, and the uncertainty Of the fu-
ture has paraIyzed all domestic trade
channels. 1t appears that the crash Is
coming, and that the revuIsion a return
to the specie basis must certainly bring is
almost upon us.
In order to pay American debts abroad,
people naturally look to the expectation
Of cotton, and are anxious to have the
annual cotton crop restored to lis old
volume. [ have already sent information
abroad on which reliable factors here
estimated the probable crop for 1866 at
l,S00,0 900 or, possibly, 100000 bales.
In the past few weeks, however, there
has been some revision of estimates, but
the general tendency among those WHO
have studied the matter is 10 adhere to
the estimate Of 1890. 900 bales. The
New England manufacturers, who desire
to unIuIy deprcss the market, are cir
c|ulating reports and estimates that The
crop for 1866 will reach 100000 or
100000 bales. On the other hand,
however, the Secretary Of the Treasury,
who fer some reason 10 spite OF iIs error
last wear, persists in making small! esjI-
mates, has given out that but 100000
bales will be raised, lie has made no
official statement to this effect, but has
permitted the publication in Washington
newspapers Of letters addressed to him
from Southern planters arguing that the
crop cannot exceed ], COOS 600 bales. The
New York Tribune prints letters S.aej &
that the crop viii reach 100000 bales,
while the NeU Yorh Duly NeWS thinks it
will be 1000, 600 bales. The editor Of
De BoiS'S RerjeW, who has just comp,et-
ed a tour through the cotton States, es-
Inmates the CROP at but 1900, 900 bales
and says
'These figures are not likely to be
increased by anything that is now TO
happen, and may be greatly reduced
by the ignorance, neglect, or desertion
of the labouring forces, which, judging
from the experience of all other coun-
tries, is more likely to occur than not,
and reduce the crop to 1000, 600 or
1900, 900 bales. No account is taken in
the calculation of the application Of
white labour to cotton, beyond what was
applied to it before the war"
The Columbus Sun, an influential
journal in the interior of Georgia, esti-
mates the crop at from 100000 to
1900, 900 bales. The Ne,0 Orleans Times,
the journal of largest circulation at that
great Southern port, estimates that the
number of cotton producers in the South
has been reduced by the fortunes of war
from 100000 in 1860 to 485, 900, and
upon this states the crop at 100000
bales. Messrs. Neill, Brothers, and Co.,
of New Orleans, universally regarded as
reliable cotton-factors, in their circular
of March 6 consider that a yield Of from