, 1865-04-11
(Ftom tie Spectator March H.
THE PROBABILITIES OF A
WAR WITH AMERICA.

The idea that the United States will,
the moment peace is proclaimed, declare
war on Great Britain is rapidly becoming
fixed. The Times proclaims or refGtes it
in every successive edition, the Lords al
lude to it in every debate, the Premier
deprecates any chance word which may
by possibility bear on it, the Stock Elk
change credits it till the funds droop with
every Northern victory, and it influences
almost avowedly the distribution of the
fleet. No idea could be more dangerous,
for none is more capable of realizing IL
self. Let the people Of this country once
get it fairly into their minds that war
with America is a mere question of time,
that there exists at Washington a fixed
resolution TO attack US whenever oppor-
tunitv serves, that the ruling men Of the
Union are determined to advance |untena-
bIe claims in order that we may resist
them, and We shall soon have a party
among Us clamouring for war. Indeed
we are not certain that the nation viii
not be clamouting, for when America is
concerned, when the dream is not Of a To-
cal war, but Of a conflict waged over
earth wherever ship can swim, of com
IuCICt HUI u IlltN III dIt NuuILSIS al once,
and colonial capitals to be defended in
the FIVE sections Of the globe, an armed
neutrality is scarcely more endurablc
than 4 war. Had the panic terror of
France lasted three mouths longer, had it
produced only expenditure instead of an
army Of volunteers, we should have had
war with France, war embraced almost
with eagerness as a relief from the into
lerable suspense, The constant cxnecta-
ton Of any catastrophe eEcites in all
brave men a wish to meet it, a desire to
see the worst that they may realize it,
and realize with it their power of
resistance, and beneath the English ten
dency to panic, a tendency born chiefly Of
q fear lest our prosperity should be too
great TO last. lies a daunlless courage.
The ruling class is just as likely 10 make
a deadly charge On America out Of sheer
pluck and determination 10 be quit Of
vague apprehensions as to wait quietly
the turn OF events, WoHId, we verify be-
lieve, make If, but that its leaders, like
all men trained in the ariStocratic school.
have an acquired faculty of patience. All
admit nevertheless that a war between
England and America would be one of
the greatest calamities which could hap
pen to civilization, would partake in many
ways of the character of a civil war.
would and could result in nothing save
mutual and useless exhaustion of men,
and ships, and treasure. It is we'll there
fore to examine for a moment frankly and
freely the probabilities, the real chance
as statesmen estimate chances of Ameri-
ca declaring war upon Us, or which is the
same question, persisting in demands inc
: vitality leading to war.
Let US take the probabilities in favour
of war first. There is no doubt whatever
that,the American people, or rather that
class of them whose opinions alone we
hear, think they have a real grievance
against this country. We have, they say,
preserved a neutrality which has been in
practice advantageous to the South, our
merchants have broken the blockade, o
manufacturers have kept "rebels'' suppli-
ed with arms even to The extent of fur
nishing at least two Blakesly guns, our
press has talked of recognition, and our
rnlerS have acknnrinh rod tt~ahal,, han:-