New-York daily tribune., 1864-04-15
THE COTTON CYCLE.

THE COTTON CYCLE.
The Cotton question may be regarded as one
of the paradoxes of the age. One by one the
theories by which its supremacy was maintained
have been exploded. As they disappeared from the
circles of discussion, others rose up to take their
place, and these having been in turn discovered
to be equally fallacious, they too have been aban'
doned. The South based her confidence in the
Cotton supremacy on the figures in DE Bows
Review. The figures lied, even if De Bow did
not He proved to the Shareholders that cotton
conld be grown nowhere but in the South, al
least in quantity sufficient tocompete with them.
This was undoubtedly De Bows honest con-
yiction; and he repeated his views so cOntinu-
ally. without contradiction, that the cotton
growers believed him implicitly. The North
adopted them-her people saw that England,
our only competitor, had failed in all her efforts
to produce a cheap staple in India. The entire
commercial world accepted the, dictum of De
Bow. This dictum became the anrnating i'm
pulse Of the Rebellion. If cotton could be
grown nowhere but by American Shareholders
then foreign nations would be compelled to aid
them in Rebellion for the sake of obtaining it,
The proposition was not only very simple one,
but all believed in it, while the shareholders
acted on it. Rebellion. however. has shown Its
absurdity. I
One important item in the Slayeholding Pro-
gramme was overlooked-the power Of the
North TO stop the cotton export, and the conse.
quent rise Of price in Europe to point high
enough TO stimulate cultivation throughout the
tropics In l56l England imported !, 2jG, ,954, ,736
mounds. of which 1876 G40. 900 were American,
while India did not contribute single bale. In
1909 the American supply sank to 1884, 900
pounds. and that from India rose from nothing
to 392, ,65i, ,525 pounds. In the same year Egypt
and Brazil contributed s., 900 pounds more
than they had supplied the previous year. In
l-63 the import from India is believed to have
fully equaled 47O, ,0OO, 900 pounds, and that from
Egypt and Brazil to have reached llO,OOO,OOO.
These may be regarded as astonishing results
when it is remembered that of the whole British
import of ,390, ,93s, ,752 pounds in loGt, all but
about I27 100000 were the product OF TINS
country. Cotton growing in India had never
been a failure, neither in Egypt nor Brazil,
because the staple has been successfully culti-
yated there from time immemoral But its
transmission to England was simply question
Of priee-the American STAKEHOLDER undersold
all other growers. The price has now risen TO
a point which makes il profitable for every
collon-gowing country to seek a European
market The estimated receipts Of England
alone for 1864, amount to over 1000, 900, 900
pounds exclusive of the United States
This vast revolution was no part Of DeBow's
theory. He pronounced it an imposSbility; but,
discovering It's fallacy he not only Acknowledged
and abandoned it, and seeing that it knocked
away the solitary prop on which the Rebellion
rested, he counseled that it be given up. The
fact has been again demonstrated that great wars
almost invariably change the localities in which
the prime staples Of the earth are produced. 1t
was so with coffee, indigo and others; and now
cotton is to be added to the list. The. whole
machinery of these commercial revolutions Is
exceedingly simple. An interruption OF supply
produces scarcity; scarcity enhances prices;
high prices stimulate production, and production
in new regions supplies the scarcity produced by
interruption Of the process in older ones. These
vast revolutions have proved in some cases TO be
permanent, in Others only temporary. The
great problem as to whether this country can re-
gain and hold fast to the cotton supply of Europe,
remains to be solved.
In the infancy of Rebellion it was generally
conceded that the Shareholders had voluntarily |
abandoned their monopoly, and sent 1t begging
for adoption by other countries. This conclu- |
sion was distinctly expressed in these columns,
and events have shown it to be correct. The
Shareholders, as a class, are passing away, and
tho cotton monopoly falls from their grasp. |
The question is-Who will receive the inher- |
tancef 1t is among the curiosities of this re-
markable transition that tho public mind was
fixed in the belief that the Shareholders and the
South were one; that none but the former could |
produce cotton; that they were everything and
that The sol was nothing; in short, that if they
refused to produce it, or were otherwise pre-
vented from doing So no cotton could be grown. |
II is now seen to be delusion. The Slave |
holders disappear, but tho South remains just
where il was-the soil is fertile, the labor still
there the world still clamorous for cot
ton. For the moment the monopoly has
slipped from her grasp. II originated with
slavcry-can it be recovered and perpetuated