The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1863-01-19
FINANCIAL AND COMMERCIAL.

ending yesterday was $2,745,576 add to which
N,074iN of dry goods entered at the port, and
the product il 50 ,sl9.700. Against this we ex-
ported 50 ,752,4o7 Of produce and merchandise and
sl44l,S7S OF specie-in the aggregate "a, 1914 ESQ.
1t is thus apparent that nothing in the condition
OF our foreign trade can justify premium on
gold. On the contrary, we mist be--as the trade
tables for 1862 pnblished.a few days since
show clearly enough-creditors Of the world at
large, and more likely, under ordinary crcum-
stances, to draw specie from Europe than to send
specie tllither. Still! so long as the war lasts it
must be expected that gold will continue to flow
outward, independently OF the course of trade.
So many OF our merchants are imbued with TO-
reign views regarding the collapse of our finances
and there Is so much uncertainty and fear with
regard to the future, that this unnatural drain of
specie cannot be avoided. The first Indication Of
peace will be followed by an active movement Of
bullion hitherward from Europe.
Money was in pretty fair demand last week at
about G per cent on call. Banks and bankers are
now exactng margins Of 20 and 25 per cent on
stccks-a wise precauton, IN one point of view,
but very silly proceeding if designed to arrest
the speculative fever which has broken ont. The
course OF the money market cannot be otherwise
the lender who viii have to 90 in search of bon
rover. Money is accommodating in the bank vaults,
and must continue so to accumulate.
Gold advanced last week TO l4s, closing at about
l46A yesterday. The immediate future Of the gold
market depends so exclusively upon speculation
and the accidents Of the war that no one can ven.
ture to predict how it will rule from day to day.
The amount Of money invested in speculatons for
fall ~, oI,nlI.
employed in specializing in stocks. Men of
every degree, profession and antecedents
may be seen from noon to two p. M.
IN William street looking after their "fyer"
of ten gold" Exchange rose with gold to 1927
1853 last week. A fair amount Of business was
done at these rates for the steamer of yesterday.
Rumors have again been current during the past
week that attempts would be made at Washington
to check the advance in gold by legislative mea-
sures. We trust that nothing so foolish will be
tried. Any attempt to Illustrate the operation Of
memorable laws of finance must lead to failure and
mischief. Let the gold speculation run its course
If the rebellion is crushed gold will fall some day
as rapidly as it rose, and the keen spectators who
bid it up day by day on the corner Of Exchange
place will need some smartness to preserve ves-
tige Of their gains.
The financial future s the great problem of the
day. Gold has risen fifteen per cent in fort.
night, or, in other words, the national currency
has deprecated ten per cent since New Years.
| Where 10 this depreciation to end! How high will
gold rise, and how low will the currency fall? Are
| the legal tender notes t6 follow the example Of
the old continental notes, and the French assig-
mats, and become worthless, Shall we see boots
| selling ut SIS pair? How shall q man manage
to save himself from ruin in the impending crisis
Of the national finances? These ore question.
which engross the mind Of every merchants
banker, capitalist and moneyed man in the country.
No one can assume to answer them oil, with any
degree of confidence. But there are q few points
| which can be readily decided, and they may as
sst individuals in forming opinions on the pros
| pect for the future. The financial policy OF the
| government may now be considered as settled;
| the expenses of the war must be defrayed
by the use Of paper money. Loans are still
talked Of in Congress and at the Treasury
Department. But in intelligent financial circles
1 IL is well understood that no loan can be nero-
tiated at any rate of interest until one of two
| things has taken place-either the overthrow of
the rebellion or the saturation of tile country with
legal tender paper II is open question whether,
| If legal tender paper became SO abundant as to
SELL for instance at rs cents the dollar for gold
| people would, without victories, have confidence
enough in government to subscribe, even in depre
ciated government paper for public loans. A
! Richmond gold rose last summer to 800; but the
subscriptions to the funded loans of the rebel con.
federacy were no larger than when it was selling
| at 200. Within week we have witnessed an ad-
| vance in gold OF ten per cent, and a simultaneous
! fall Of eight per cent in United States SKIES 1t
follows that il is by no means certain that even a
saturaton of the North with legal tender paper
would insure the negotiation Of loans, independ.
emily Of military successes, rs the very depreciation
of government paper would discredit government
bonds. In aword. there is no possible chance ofnew
government loans being successfully negotiated,
under any circumstances, until the military situa
ton has essentially changed, and the entire ex
pcnses OF government, over and above the product
ofinternal and externalaaxes, must ifpaid at ALL be
betrayed by repeated issues Of legal tender paper
IL IL not worth while TO stop to inquire how far the
bank scheme Of The Secretary of the Treasury might
alter the situation, that scheme, though recon.
merded W the ingenious but supcrannuated
iinencicr Mr.. Robert ). Walker has not the phos,
of a chance of being adopted by Congress Nor is
ii necessary to examine whether the gratutous
payment OF interest on Treasury notes would HELM
The case: FOR il is obvious that. unless the notes
circulated rs money, the army and the public
creditors would not receive them, and IL they were
used as money tic payment OF interest upon them
would only clog their circulation, and deyove upon
the Treasury y slaecsssare expense. Assuming
.s.s government will be compelled to pay all cx-
pfnses ~ lcga tender paper during the year 1898,
- " other ~crk, to issue, say 5000 900
IS -uch paper H. what point viii gold
is,' ~ w'ai depth will the national
emi'fcf decline These ques,.,hs may DC en-
aL.''ifd eiihcr ny the light Of preccde-s OF On
hasis Of theory. We know that an iss,. :"
s2o0.0y0,OOs o. paper assisted ~ The defeat be-
fore Richmond, caused gold to rise 10 us in July
last, and that the expectation Of further issues has
now caused IL 10 advance TO l4s. At Richmond
unlimited issues of paper put gold TO $40 last sum.
neF, AMI il s ncs selling, If the Richmond papers
Ia.