The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1862-07-21

probably continue active throughout the season,
and hence that supply Of foreign exchange
will be created which will be fully adequate
0 meet the reduced demand from the foreign i'm
porters. If this expectation be fulfilled, bills
must fall to par or thereabouts. 1t is not likely,
however, unless startling and decisive trumphs
should be achieved by the Union arms, that gold
will decline with bills. Gold has risen not much
In consequence of the export inquiry as from the
distrust prevailing at home, which has induced
large number Of merchants and bankers to hoard
So long as the war lasts and the result remains un-
determined, this tendency will continue to exist.
1t is therefore by no means unlikely that we may
witness gradual decline in the price Of exchange,
accompanied by steady or even an advancing mar
ket for gold. That such condition Of things would
lead to importations of gold from Europe is too
clear to need demonstration. The moment ex-
change falls to or near par, while gold remains at
premium Of ten to twenty per cent, there will be
q handsome profit on importations Of specie from
Europe, and it will be imported. At
the present time European merchants
can do an excellent business by open
ing credits in London and Paris for the pur-
chase of food, merchandise and stocks here, and
their agents are embarking in the business active
ly. 1t will not be long, however, before the copi
GUS exports which are going forward yield q
supply Of exchange in excess Of the wants of i'm
porters. II, then, gold is maintained at premium
while bills decline, European bankers will cease
to open credits, and will send over the specie in
bulk for sale here, proceeds to be RENTED in pro-
duce, merchandise or stocks. This calculation
may be overset by renewed expectations of Ameri-
can stocks from Europe. For three years the Eu-
how IL, ota he
home for sale, and buying few or none. Within
the past three months the sales of American stocks
in our market for European account have been
enormous. The trade tables for the fiscal year
1912 show an import aggregate Of $l44 900 000,
against an export aggregate of $l63 900 900, show
ing balance of about $l9,OO0,000 in our favor.
This calculation refers exclusively to the
port of New York; but the returns from
the other ports will not vary it mate
rally. Had it not been for the return of Anne
rican stocks from Europe, we should have been
large importers of specie from Europe in settle
ment of the balance of trade in our favor. That
we are exporting instead of importing gold is due
to the heavy exports of American stocks from
England and other parts of Europe. How long
this may continue no one can tell. Within the
past year certain speculative bankers in London,
assisted by the London Times, have frightened q
large number Of European holders Of American
securities into selling, and have realized large
profits by the operation. At the present time
the premium on bills and gold here blocks the
game Of the spectators. But if exchange should
decline the traffic might revive. 1t is believed
however, by our leading bankers that most Of the
"loose stocks y held In Europe have already been
disposed of, and letters from London state that
parties interested in American securities have at
length awakened to the shameful swindle prac-
tised on them by the London Times and its coad-
tutors among the bankers, and are not disposed to
be further victimized.
The following table shows the course Of the
stock market for the past week and month";