New Orleans daily crescent. [volume] ([New Orleans, La.]) 1851-1866, 1861-01-26


On this assumption, crop of 81 to millions
would afford worry scanty supply, even with sta
tionary consumption; it would reduce the reserves
OF stock very low, but not so low to Justify eX-
tremely high prices, if the following crop promised
to be good one, for it must be remembered that
splnners could use up the very liberal stock they
hold at present. while an earlier delivery of next
Crop stimulated by high prices, might also inter
pose to prevent the above deficiency being visible
in the Liverpool stock at the close of next year. 1t
seems therefore thGt crop Of 81 to millions,
while requiring strict economy in the consumption
and warranting somewhat higher prices than ex-
st now, would not threaten cotton famine unless
followed by another deficient yield.
But this view of the question which was adequate
month ago, is now obscured by the momentous
issues arising out of the political crisis in America
The secession from the Union of large number of
the Southern States is now fully expected, and it
is feared that in various ways it may seriously
affect the supply of cotton. AS already observed,
it is commonly thought in the States that slave
labor will be diverted to some extent next season
from the production of cotton to that of corn and
provisions, view that seems reasonable enough
within certain limits; while an uneasy feeling ex
lists lest the negro population should be tempted to
some outbreak amid the ferment of political STRIFE
This latter contingency, if realized, would produce
disastrous effect on the cotton trade, and might
bring about that famine Of the material so
often dreaded, but never yet encountered in Ian
cashre 1t seems clear, however, that such
catastrophe is highly improbable, but the bare
chance, remote though it be, cannot be overlooked
ana may commune 10 exert an appreciate lullu-
ence on prices.
It seems, therefore, fair to assume that the mar
ket derives additional strength from the political
aspect Of America, though it is impossible at this
date to estimate the degree to which this influence
may affect it. Our money market, however is
likely to keep unsettled throughout the year. Our
specie reserves must be kept low through the pay
ments requisite to adjust the balance of trade dis
turbed by the large imports of breadstuffs, and it
is not unlikely that periods of great stringency
may be felt during the coming year. With such
state of the money market, very high prices for
cotton must always be fraught with danger.
In conclusion, may remark with respect to the
supply of cotton from India, that well-informed
parties do not anticipate much above average
indeed, there is to look for larger ship
ments than last year, beyond what ia due to the
attractive power of high prices. If prices rule
very high it is possible that the arrivals of Surat
cotton in the latter half of the year may be heavy,
as in 1857, but as in that year, they would come
too late to tighten the pressure of consumption
American cotton. During the first six months of
| the year, it is certain chat the arrivals of Indian
cotton will be light, and the supply no more than
sufficient to provide for the present restricted de-
mand.
| On the whole, therefore. it seems reasonable to
| conclude that the year 1861 will be one of much
uncertainty to the supply, and much fluctuation
| in the price OF cotton. The chance seem to be in
favor of high average of value, and possibly at
some season of the year of dangerously high prices.
| 1t presents many points of resemblance to 1857
| but it is to be hoped that this analogy may not
To hoiI