New-York daily tribune., 1861-08-23
TIE COTroa COMPLICATION.

"A On the first of October following lha'
= Se.i ,yss estimated to reach l,75O,Voo' "nho
.,,sons belieyed it would ce much less Ao'
ni-D! .,rt;nued TO reach England OF trosF
sood and drouth in the Cotton States iildioN''pe
,bort crop. Speculation became ac''o' 'oo
ot,v ,slss were enormous, and prices went up
..n,b foures Az the season advanced however,
,u,, gradually dawned upon the trace 'lu
,,rew1 tnen began TO suspect that the cI't'
..ood of beipg short would be unusually ia'so'
prices reeeded, and the majority OF dealers uo,
,,irsd operating. At length the import Teachea
fse highest estimate Of the entire crop, anu 'pa'
lang before the season had closed. IL ""0
den, that the crop was far larger tnan ""' OD'
had supposed. In fact, as suosequep'g
,.;raa II reached the Unprecedented nsuie "
. 0s0 O00 bsles. Prices fell, there was Pei''''
elut. and speculators lost imnen'e f'"'' VI '''!
Su.lsn6 was for once puzzled TO know "hS' 70
A. ,,,;.b sncb deuge of cotton. What with the
losses made by manufacturers VINO nao '''u :"
heavy stocks at bigh prices when q soor' supply
xos considered CERTAIN and those mace ny spec
ul,tors who bought for a rise, added to the lai'
IN warns and fabrics the panic IN the whole cot
ton interest was tremendous. Some had Deeh
ruped, while few escaped unharmed.
Meanwhile q similar alarm took possession oi
the cotton growers. They saw that too much
bad been produced. Their newspapers were
filed with communications from planters depfe-
eating any increase of cultivation, and suggest
ing plaGs for keeping down production. one OF
them declared that some check should he
"even to production, it having already reached
"to fearful amount" Another asserted that
rs cotton melted the planter only four cents,
while, strangely enough, niggers were higher
tSan ever they were producing it at loss.
fhird rested on the pleasing certainty shat no
moro cotton laud could be brought into culture
In Mississippi, as the privilege OF bringing ne
grOes into that State would expire in 1915. Ii
was on oil sides admitted that too much had
been grown. The low price of all articles OF
consumption, and the high prices OF cotton IN tie
early part Of the season, had given unnatural
stimulus to production. For once, both the ole
and new world had too much. 4 cotton g!ut
was as productive Of panic as q cotton famine.
These are strange facts to be paraded now.
But such mutations belong TO the history ol
every staple used for tue maintenance either ct
human life OF human industry. 1t is OF such
that some men rise into mllLOnaires while others
sink to beggary. England, now needing twiee
tie cotton she aid in lS44, begins August with
q stock of only l0S7, eco bales in store. Her
present reduced consumption ia ttli !aree enough
10 consume it 70 rapidly, tbat in December her
mills must stop. These are the figures and con-
clusioDs Of her latest cotton circulars, looking 10
this country rs tho fountain Of supply. They
refer 10 peace being made, and count the bales
hat may run the blockade as nothing. COnsld-
tring both chances hopeless they weigh the
probabilities of extra supplies being obtained
elsewhere. One authority says that price will
70 far to settle that part OF the question. When
cotton has been very high in Liverpool as it
uow is, India never failed to yield up her treas
ares. Price attracts capital aud labor. Last
rear, India supplied England with 5G4, coo bales;
lhs year, she has already furnished 622, OCO, and
s looked TO for 100000 in all. But for
various reasons given, this increase is held TO be
Insufficient to FL up the great Cup in the Ameri-
can supply, as the more cotton India shiqs to
England, the more cloth does ste take 10 return.
The surplus one way is equalized by exsess in
inother. This authority sees 10 remedy for the
impending crisis, but for oil England to work
her spindes only hali.tme, trusting TO the future
for something better to turn up. This cOurse
will carry her working.peOple through the VIM
Ter. The same authority scouts the idea of
England going to war with us for the cake Of
rottOn, remembering that it would be cheaper to
feed her idle woIkmen than to lose tie Ameri-
can market, or TO again encounter fleets Of
American priyateers.
Other EDglish authorities, after canvassing the
whole field, come to very nearly the same con-
elusoD. The danger which alarms them is
present and immediate. The future they con.
tider clear. Enable them 10 get over but q
liDgle year Of scarcity, and they consider them
selves sale. The Manchester Cotton Supply Re-
porter for July and August is emphstic this
pont So far from British spIners seeking to
drive the Government into forcing eur blockade,
and getting cotton for them at the cost Of war,
their organs show that it is referred to only as
On imposFibilty. al they print ard say goes TO
preye that tteY have made up their minds to do
without American cotton, and, having 50 re-
solved, they are casting about how best to
accomplish it. The recent speech OF 5ir. Bright
Is entirely cOnfrnstory Of these views. II Man
chester does not demand Of the Government to
raise the blockade, the lntter win hardly volUn-
beer the undertaking. They row admit that
the Rebellion must be crushed, or, if not, that
DO peace can be expected until after the effort
ba. Ixno a.. 4 Ill