New-York daily tribune. [volume] (New-York [N.Y.]) 1842-1866, 1861-09-13
THE PROSPECTS FOR COTTON UNDER THE
AMERICAN DIFFICULTY.

Froa Tas london Times, .i.g 30.
Coming events" l. 10 said, " cast their shadows
before them;" but tie Interpreters ot prophecy tel
us the shadow il seldom understood TIL tie event.
The shadow has one form, tie event another. l. 80
happens that for the last twenty years We have all
been daikiy limiting az The possible failure OF TIC Cot
ton Crop, and it, momen.ous consequences on Bul.h
industry and prosperity. Perhaps it might come IA
might come by the sudden self manclation Of the
slayes Perhaps nj y,it be al war with the Amer
leans and Sighting with closed Custom. lousoe FER
haps the New Englanders might one day iulhi thelr
ofrepeaed threats Of taking up eli the cotton WOOL
and workn., it themselyes, 20 Ms To do without US
altogether All tbc pamphlets and species about the
cultivation Of cotton IN INDIA have begun, as mat
Ter of course with sOme sinister auguries OF this
sort hut as time continued TO battle them, IT was
bop,d that the prophets OF i'll would stil prophecy In
vain. ia Justice however, 70 the British puths Il
must BE said that the probable stoprage oi the cot
ton pnpply had become DOE " their hIet IDEAS ana
a recognized motive Of legislation. 1t BIAS told IN
Iadian railways and lIdiIn measures. But IN the
numerous conecures de ~ TO the probable form o.
this cotton failure which was 20 certain 20 come, we
cannot remem that this precise form was once suS
rested The event mas distanced human Ingenuity
Nnbody IMAGINED that in the year 1901 should
the Northern aud Southern States OF America engaged
in war 80 fierce and implacsble that they ran the
rrk Of all suffering or inconvenience go long as they
could nfic much on one another. Ii Is quite eyl-
dent that by not d.porug OF tie cotton crop the South
and of public revenue and II ID equally evident that
the Northern States must suffer as much An eabor-
ate and stringent tarl proves how much they depend
upon customs but the instant they hinder exports they
strlke a blow at their imports. The policy Of both
-des therefore in gard the cotton crop simply
snicdal. Such il the actual shape Of the calamity
which our pro- hes and wise men have been so long
bogglug st. i, doomed indistincy through the haze
of the New World. OF course, they will boast that
they saw il coming, and Of course the world will
reply, "It was not that you led US to expect"
But now that the caamit. has come and stares MS
in the face, how we TO deal with II In the first
place. will the Americans really be able TO keep their
ut home snd prevent il from finding its way to
its old consumers by channel or another War has
always proved an i'll match for trade which is much
the more prompt ingenious, and versatile Of the two
Ngpsleon could never exclude us from the markets Of
the Continent, though be occupied II with his legons
and kept watch bsef at our very doors. Tariffs and
bockhdes only gave premium and occasion 10 the
smuggler and, If the war were only sae TO last, we
can imarine no surer way of making a fortune than
setting about 10 battle is Customh0u and is
cruisers IL is needless 10 ask how the thing will
be done, for done ii will be; and the only con-
sequence will be somewhat diminished sup
Div, somewhat higher price, and q proportionate
stimulus to the Indian and West African cotton
growers. This, however, only goes to show that
the calamity will be one Of degree. The war has
raired the price o. cotton very coniiderably, ana
30 far tells manufactures and all the dependent
classes and interests. What are they TO do The
millowners il is sad, generally intend TO meet the
present emergency by not lighting up this next
Winter and, meanwhile capitalists are emphaticslly
invited TO maintain the price OF cotton by holding
buying il, though the fact OF such invitation being
given lie at least suspicious capitalists commonly
keen. sighted enough when an investment il in ques-
ton. The consumption and export, thus far, little
lees than they were latt year. and all goes on very
much AZ usual This may only be another proof of the
blindness Of those best qualified 70 interpret the signs
OF the times. When we hear ~ do, year after
year and day after day. of great mercantile houses
breaking down suddeny under the pressure Of political
causes long in operation, and sill longer antic ated
We can only suppose that commerce runs IN current
that cannot be easily changed disturbed, that the
routine OF business does Lot teach men large view Of
and consequences. Immense failures, comprising
respectable and od-eslabllshed houses, with
spondeuts all the world prove undenably that
are not to 20 to the ordinary London countng-house
for any insight into the future, be that future
near and ts import disastrous. When prophecy
fails il has done in this neance, and etill does,
can only think il the wsest TO take the safest
side. AB was pointed out by correspondent in our
City Article Of Wednesday, there was u time
when were better prepared for such emergency,
and when the events Oh the other side r enlrely
agreed with preeent venience. The supply
and the consumption Of the last two years have been
unexamped. All the markets glu ted with cotton
goods We are expecting un immense increase from
Iuda and the extraordinary step of the detention of
the years cotton crop in the United States need
have other effect than 10 reduce eonsum ion for
one year to two-thirds Of the late average. With one
year notice it il considered We may easily make our
selves safe for the future
The great fact we have TO deal with ia one inde-
pendent of tariffs, Of blockades, of combinations
among merchants manufacturers, aud OF every arti-
flee for stemmng meeting the tide of calamity 1t
is the great fact Of the war itself. That war must
employ, both aides toy Their, at least halt million
men, There is not far from that number already un-
der arms, and the cry is continually for more men.
The apology for every is the OF reserves
to relieve the long-ensged, to protect the guns, to
save the position from being outtlanked aud TO keep
up the numbersto the programme. Battles to decide
the future Of whole continent and TO figure IA
n York papers vany boosted among the decisive Vie
tories Of the world not TO be fought with division