Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1860-02-01

LECTURE AT THE SMrfHsoNfAN--The lecture Of
VI. Gould on Chance, Probability, and Acct.
Dent, at the Smithsonian Institute M ouday even
was largely attended This subject the lecturer
remarked, occupied the singular paradoxical posi-.
;ts opiaia cence az once purely mathematical In
nsoo ollsa1' nature, and development He then
proceeded to call the attention of the auditory TO
cursory survey Of the measures characters re-.
sui" ana promises of the calculation Of nance
ne davancing knowledge and understanding of
dlnerent names. 1t once called the art Of
conjecture" 1t was then called the doctrine of
~ nance and since called the theory of "Proba-
ohly' But under all these various names there
Were the same fundamental laws the same fnnd.'
mental constructions. The only difference wa.
that we were i'm the habit of calculating rather
probability to the word sscbance Tba,e ',,ns e
indeed, no such thing as "chancen with thss
hllosoPher, except In the of probability -
h1ssd means to him the result of Influences, Of
whose whose. history he Is as yet ignorant and in pro-
Porton as the sphere Of his knowle is ENLARGED
~ c,e 'ne sources OF his uncertainty dried up
sbi ho.e VINO had not devoted special study to the
suoJec', conid not analyZe, without surprise the
nature OF that idea which they denoted bv the
.efm certainty" There was very LITTLE true CO..
AMY I'm the world; and as it was generally known
that 1t was simply strong probability or moe f.
qtentiy probability that seemed strong. withont
IN reality being 20. He then proceeded by several
iSess STUthhlns Illustrations to demonstrate this
Ioea. what Is known under the name of moral
certainty Is no certainty at all but smply degree
OF moral conviction arising from the probablitiss
so extreme as to maxi il doubtful as TO wbetbe,
me thng exists at all Certainty in is strict sense
ara not admit of degree Probability niobt he
however OF an intermediate degree between abso
lu'e certainty on the one hand and no probability
al all on the other. Automatically EXPRESSED
Information was commonly called :. probable''
"heh us probability amounted TO more than q
piooaDliity and improbable when its proba-
blilty Is less than reality. What was probability
as as iar as they We're concerned, depended upon
shelr knowledge. and upon that alone 1t was
rom this point Of view that they considered the
so-calied Instrument of chance"
After referring to chance practised I'm lotteries
anu other ways. where the chances of obtainiup
the thfng sought were not over one in a hundred
Ne remarked that moraists and Neutrality-suspicious.
hao been frequently perplexed In their endeavors
70 oehne gambling. All agreed that man did
wrong To rlsk his property for the die on the card
OF "hlch he knew nothing; but, when assuming
him 10 possess knowledge as to that card his
crime becomes tenfold greater, because then, in
s'eao OF lis being gambling, it was committing
oase ana Wllful fraud. Apply this to the occur
renee OF daily life, and where was the difference
oe'ween him who bet on the speck on the card and
ne wne Oct on the rise and fall of stock of mer
chahdise and the like? The lecturer then pro-
ceeoed 10 show that there was no moral dis.inc
ZION between the operations of many of our most
prominent and wealthy banking establishments
insurance Offices and business places of varions
descriptions. and the worst kind of gamblino If
was gambling, and you could not draw tie line
of moral distinction. ''o