The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1860-11-05

export that win tell against the average has. been
that Of October 27-s347 $3.50. 1t must % expected,
if he usual course Of trade be rot interrupted that
o ecie viii soon begin to f0W Southwark to move
the cotton crop. At this time Of year sight ex-
change on New York generally sells at New Or
leans at discount; at our latest dates the rate
was only discount, at which figures it will not
pay to ship gold to the South. Should the South
ern banks and bankers persevcre in Withholding
cotton bills, as they appear to be doing at
pres ent, the usual Southern drain Of specie from
the North win be checked, and our banks will ac-
cumusse coin even faster than was anticipated.
The ub-Treasury balance continues to increase,
owing to payments on account Of the loan. tstood
yesterday at IS 63s, 1853, against siss7 o03 at the
close Of last week, and s4563 407 at the cores
ponGing date last year. Adding the Sub Treasury
balfnce to the specie reserve in the banks, i ap
pears that there is at present about s2s 900 600 in
specie in the city, against abSdt "a, $50 600 at the
corresponding date last year.
1t is generally expected that the banks may shcw
an increase of loans tomorrow Their last are
rage was 1928 1852 826. an increase of sl,459,l2t
from the week previous. At the corresponding
date last year the banks had loaned $40 lls 0'7.
Inc Cuiriiiiutul WHICH NO uIUeuCeu III AuBuSt
seems 20 have reached its limit; both the specie
and the deposits are increasing, and it is not
unreasonably presumed that the banks will avail
themselves of the opportunity to earn dividends.
Much of course, will depend on the movement Of
politics. Should any outbreak take place at the
South interfering with the ordinary of trade,
and impeding the collection of debts due TO the
North, the banks will owe it to themselves to pur-
sue a strictly conservative course They would
feel crisis more severely than any other interest.
They would be the first to suffer if confidence were
rudely shaken, and If the large debt now due by
Southern TO Northern houses were not collected,
the bulk of the loss would fall on them. They will
doubtless keep the contingency ever in view. and
so direct their to suffer as little as posi-
BILE, whatever happens.
Money closed yesterday with more lively de-
mand than had been noticed for some time.
Lenders got Ga for call loans; short paper, how
ever good, would not pass under Ga a 7, and long
paper was hard of sale at Z 8. The advance in
the market is due TO the uneasiness now prevailing
in many minds with regard to the future Should
Lincoln be elected, man can tell what shape the
indignation and the apprehensions of the South
may take, and the commonest prudence suggests
that while the danger lasts there should be ex-
pansion of credit. In the event of an outbreak at
the South, and the stoppage of the cotton supply
nothing could save our mercantile community from
a terrible panic, or from losses which in many cases
would probably be fatal These are not times to
trust TO credit or to rely upon precedent. Many
houses which weathered successfully the storms of
1887 and 1867 would go down like chat before the
first breath Of a Southern insurrection and civil
war.
The foreign exchange market was duh all last
week, but at the close some of the leading bankers
advanced their rates. At the closing of yester-
days mail the principal drawers were asking 1857
for sterling, and 5.l7a for francs; hear how
ever, of no transactions above 1851 for sterling,
and few in francs above 5.lsl. The supply of cot
ton bills continues scant, and had the Saturday
steamer been favorte packet, drawers would pro-
badly have been enabled TO advance rates sub
stantially. Some produce bills are offered at l07
a !. The downward course Of foreign exchange
appears to have been checked for the present by
the dminuton in the supply of cotton bills from the
South If anything should occur 10 deprive this mar
ke Of its usual winter supply OF Southern bills ex.
change on Europe, instead Of falling, as was not
long ago expected to the point at which New
York could import specie from London would rise
again, and We might witness the singular anomaly
Of heavy specie shi nnents in December and Janu.
airy. This will depend upon the issue Of the pend
ing political struggle. The course which is now
being pursued by the Southern banks IL persevered
in after the election Of Lincoln, as it probably will
be, cannot but tend directly TO prevent remittances
Of cotton bills North.
The following table will show the movement, of
The stock market during the past week and
month
Of O. oct Is OF 90 oct 81 No A