The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1860-07-16
ange during the past month";

1t will be noticed that all the speculative stocks
are considerably higher than they were week ago.
The volume of business transacted at the Stock Ex
change during the past week very large indeed;
probably in fthat Of any previous week since
the crisis. The revival of speculation and the i'm
provement in prices mainly due to the prospect
of an unusually large crop in the Northwest,
which must obviously have the effect Of swell
ing the traffic receipts Of all the rail-
roads.of that region, and also Of those which lead
from that region to the seaboard. 1t is understood
that leading houses in the grain trade have taken
active share in the speculation for the rse their
sources of information enable them to estimate the
future business of the Northwest In advance Of
other branches of trade, and thus far the result has
fully rewarded their sagacity.
The theory of the leading bull operators is
that the public, appalled, by the disasters Of 1878
set altogether too low value upon railway pro-
perty; from one extreme they rushed into another,
and refused to touch, at twenty-five cents on the
dollar, property which, three years before. was
considered cheap at par. They argue that az rail-
ways IN England are found to pay fair profit
on an average cost of 5000 900 mile, rail-
ways in the United States (where trade is
more active and travelling more universal
than Ia any part Of Great Britain) ought to
pay handsomely on their average cost Of t4o, 900
s45, 900 mile. And they say that If, during the
flush times Of 1856. railroads in the West paid
ands per cent in dividends, the same roads may be
expected to pay 10 and Is per cent during the flush
times which pretty TO be witnessed in 1851
and 1862. We present their views to the public
for what they may be WORTH the bears at present
do not seem TO have any opinions.
II seems pretty certain that, as matters stand,
some of the popular railroad shares lower than
their earnings and the market value Of money
would seem TO warrant. II il hardly worth while
to mention any particular stock; but to take as an
example, New York Central, which II generally
conceded to be one Of the most generally popular
stocks on the list, II can hardly be doubted but
that it will hereafter pay handsome income on
its present cost. How much II viii divide in
August is matter Of doubt. Some look for 3,
some 81, some a per cent dividend. But that
the road has earned per cent, and that the traffic
is steadily on the increase, no competent person
who has studied the subject can fairly doubt. II .
per cent be paid, the balance on hand viii be
equal to 2 per cent? II the dividend be 4per cent;
per cent or nearly quarter Of million, win be
reserved for contingencies IL n impossible 10 deny
the progressive productiveness Of such property
without concedng the general decline Of the coun-
try.
Nearly Or much may be said Of most Of the
Western roads. All those which are well located
will earn profits this fall. The prospect is that
all-with the exception Of a few which do not lie
in the natural channels of business-wiil do well,
and that speculation viii carry the stocks as far
beyond their proper value as they are now below
II.
The prospect involves an obvious danger. AS
soon as the existing roads begin TO pay large divi
dends, competing lines will be built. Already we
hear loud stories about that monstrous scheme, the
Great Western broad guage railroad, which some
infatuated Englishmen said TO be ready 70 build.
II need hardly be remarked that the railroad sys-
tenn between the seaboard and the West IL fully
ample for all the business which offers or II lhcy
80 offer for many years. The Great Western Rail-
road Is not needed II cannot reasonably be cx-
pected TO pay in an average series Of year,. II
wi however injurc the existing lines of road, and,
without supporting itself, viii deprive them Of
trafc which they need. II is by such enterprises
that the railroad system Of the North is kept con-
stanily in doubt and discredit.