Arkansas true Democrat., 1860-09-22
Prophecies of the Gazette.

In it's last issue the Gazette tells us to "vote for Bell to defeat Lincoln" This we are to understand is the main reason why we should vote for Bell. Let us now examine Mr. Bells chances. If we prove that he has no chance at all our neighbor is in honor bound to come out for Breckin ridge or Douglas to defeat Lincoln. - The choice between these two should be determined by the {. best chance' rule. The probability is--and political specula- tions are probabilities not possibilities that Lincoln will carry Maine, New Hamp- shire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Is land, Connecticut, Ohio, Michigan, Wis consin, Iowa, Minnesota, New York, h. diana and Ilinois-an electoral vote of 13S.
 Mr. Breckinridge will carry South Caro- lima, Georgia. Florida, Alabama, Missis- sippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, Ten nessee, Kentucky, Oregon, California, Vir- ginia, North Carolina, New Jersey and Delaware-a total of 127 electoral votes.
 MT. Douglas may get Missouri.
 MT. Bell may possibly get Maryland.
 This leaves Pennsylvania to be disposed of. It's 27 votes can elect either Lincoln or Breckinridge
 We will now give the facts upon which we predict the probability of the above re- suit The calculation is made upon the supposition that there will be no further s' fusions." Douglas and Bell fusons can not vary the result, but fusion of these two with the friends of Breckinridge in doubtful States might It is we'll known that in New York Douglas and Bell have already fused, but still they do not think they can carry the State, and consequently they have offered to divide literally with the friends of Breckinridge and form complete fusion ticket-a forced admission of their inability to defeat Lincoln without the strength of Breckinridge. If the pro- position is accepted, and the fusion com pleted, the State may be carried against Lincoln and that will insure it for Breck- inridge. A similar result might follow Tn Illinois, Indiana and Pennsylvania. Such fusion would undoubtedly elect Breckin- ridge and Lane before the people, Ten votes in New York and ten in Pennsylva- nia would insure his election.
 If a complete fusion is not carried out in New York, Pennsylvania, illinois and Indiana, Lincoln will be elected before the people. This is our opinion.
 From the showing we have made it IS evident that MT. Breckinridge Is much stronger than Douglas or Bell. From the partial showing of our cotemporary Breck' inridge is certain of three States, South Carolina, Mississippi and Arkansas. We recently heard one of the ablest Bell elec- tors in this State-admit on the stump, that he would carry Georgia. lie IS as certain of Texas as he is of South Carolina. Il he does not carry Oregon and California | they WILL go lOf IiliSohh' two tickets in Florida-one for Breckin' ridge and one for Bell. That State IS surt for him. Douglas recent visit to srgIni' l and North Carolina has weakened his cause 1 in those States. If he has any strength 1T those States it is in the ranks of the oppo s;tion. The true democracy every wheF'
 
 at the South are for Breckinridge--witl very inconsiderablc exceptions. There ' only one possible chance to defeat Lincoln that is by complete fusion ticket ai above indicated, and the result will be t secure the election of Breekinridgs am Lane. Let the South be true to her cand' dates and we will force a fusion of all wh really desire to preserve the Union wi'l the constitutional rights of the South intact and whose object is not to break down 'h democracy and to secure offices under Alb [ Lincoln