Memphis daily appeal. [volume] (Memphis, Tenn.) 1847-1886, 1860-02-04
THE PROSPECTS OF OoTrON FoH
1850.

mn NvAeA - StAAoN hOh
Prem ne LrerposI FsstI
The characteristic features Of the cotton
trade, dgring the past twelve months, have IN.
doubtedly been the uneNampled prosperity Of
the manufacturing interest on the one hand
and the increase nthe production Of the raw
material on the other. At tBis time last vear
much unsasiRsss was felt BY importersin pros
poet Of an estimated crop Of $4,000 and II
the FINAL result had boen f~oreseen in eoniane
ton with the outbreak Of a continental war,
Few persons would have v~entursd to base their
operations on SO high a price a. Sd. = n for
middling Orleans Alta ater date, when peace
ives restored, and the magnitude Of the last
crop more nearly ascertained, the conidenes
Of holders was founded in a great measure
upon the supposed damage sustained By the
present crop at the outset, and the probability
that il would fall short Of the last. Had L
then been foreseen that the year would con
elude with toe current estimates Of 4,25o,OO0,
every one would have predicted a great de-
! cline in price.
These depressing influences have been sur
mounted, however, througa the extraordinary
5u9yancy Of trade in an the centers OF manu.
featuring industry.
The absorption Of cotton has almost kept
pace with tie supply, ard the little surplus
that has been added 10 the stock Of raw ma
"NAH-H "" 1A"@aHM 4@HA ANAA III NaEh u AAE
rapid development Of consumption all over the
world, aud the unusually wide margin OF profit
On the Manufactured article.
At this period it is interesting to inquire
whether another year Of prosperous trade will
again countsract the effects OF heavy supplies,
and leave 90 smalla surplus at the close as not
10 warrant a change En- The standard OF price,
which has for the last two years, with won
derfuliy little deviation, been supported for
"a. per pound for middiing Orleans.
In examining the relations Of supply to de-
msnd it is Of coarse nsedful in the first place
70 accept some estimate Of the American
crop task which in tie present state Of
public opinion Is extremely difficult, for sell
dom, II ever, have the current estimate va
ned more widely than they do at present.
Between the extreme views advocated By re-
spectacle authorities there is a margin Of at
least half a million Of bales, for there are still
a few persons well entitled to credit who be-
lieye the yield to be less than last years, while
many are confident that it viii be found to sx-
coed tour and a quarter millions, perhaps con
siderahly. From America the estimates are
now with few exceptions, above four million
OF bales, and Il an average Of opinion there
could be struck it would probably be about
100000 bales. In England the feeling is de-
cldedly less sanguine, and very many Of the
best Informed parties stu regard -four millfSh
- 49, a-AAAAAN At AA1A uE dAL4lLLEln now
ever, TIA. the leaning even here Is now in ia
ror OF a somewhat larger amount.
Now, ueannot be doabted that public opinion
on this point has been chiefly governed by the
enormous receipts at the ports, and that atten-
ton has been almost wholly withdrawn from
the unfavOrable auspices under which the crop
started. L IL almost forgotten that in the
months Of May and June The young plant was
unisersaly reported "a be late, and that great
AnmaRn unu aNH.--H - A. -
overflow. On the 18th Of NAV, Messrs. W.
P. Wright & Co. write as follow: The
weather at tie South has been uufavorable for
The growing crop, the high water in the Ms
sissippl continues and muJh damage is being
done. The cotton plant is certainly two weeks
later than last year, anit the standbv no means
good" On the 3lst Of Nav, Messrs. NeiW
Brothers write as follows " We are now re-
ceiving very favorable accounts OF the weather
from nearly al quarters, but the Information
we get with regard to the progress Of
he inundation, confirms 81 that has been said
as 70 the extent Of damage done ; il is con-
ceeed by al, to be consider ably greater than
that OF last year, which, from the relative
small increase in The deliveries az New Orleans
compared to Tie Other ports, can not have been
less than 100000 bales. Whether such a loss
can again be easily spared viii depend on the
future weather for growth. The general eron
ts now doing well, though the l~ateness Of ia
start cannot be fully recovered without an sx-
uaordinaIy favorable season hereafter.
These extracts convey a pretty correct no
ton OF tie tone Of public opinion then. Il
was universally conceded that the crop bad 4 1
bad start, and that a very late picking season /
vas requisite to produce a large yield. From
June to the end Of October, the weather was
remarkably me, and scarcely a complaint vas
heard, and the lateness Of the start was ann
posed to be recovered, putting the crop on
parity as to e~arliness with the previous one
but, on the 30h Of October, a killing frost
vas reported 10 have stopped the growth OF
the plant, and thus deprived II Of the eonditfon
to be essential 70 an abundant Weld
namely, a late picking season. The misshie =
Gus influence Of that frost is now generally
denied, though it is scarcely disputed thai 4
checked the growth Of the plant-two opin ous
nat cannot be easily reconciled, and The de-
s~truetion BY overflow, 80 generally believed in
May has long since passed into oblivion. Tbe
snormous movements Of The crop, and TIE cen
raj test mony from the interior ast II tie abun-
iant production, have entirely ovsrruled tbeSe
considerations, and produced the present STATE
y public opinion on this SUBJECT. Under
hese circumstances, il seems scarcely safe 70
olow public opinionto its full extent, as thcre
to be a strong presumption that il leans
eKaggerstOn, and. therefore. viii
as the basis Of this statement. an as
umed crop Of 100000 bales, ss being. .oD
be whole that view which commands ID. (,
argest amount OF Intelligent support in this J
And here it NAV be as well to make :
FOR casualties, such as 10 ; bv ire I
aipwrecks, et--S which amounted last wear h .
bout 5000 bales, and which 1 will put at the :
ame hgure this season, leaving the erop !
-neuy available for consumption 100000 !
sles. Z
Il is nov desirable to glance for a moment D
I. the probable distribution Of this erop: and !
FORM a Just opinion on this subject. il q
lrdly necessary 10 20 further back than last y
'ason, Which afforded a fair criterion Of the :
requirements Of the various con- :
lining countries under the action Of a pros- q
lrous trade On the one hand, and an abundant =
'pply on The other. Bolh these conditions =
likely to be renewed this year, and he y
iy important difference is, that last season y
e equilibrium was somewhat d~eranged By r
war, which, il is hoped, nav not y
repeated in the present. y
OF the last crop Of 3.s50,O0 bales. ASA 600 ~
round number were distributed smoRg ths o
nsuming countries, and the remaining 10000 =
les were either added % stock in ports. Or .
b through accidents, etc. OF the amount ~
ported, England received 2,020,O00 bales. or 70
Z per cent; The Continent 100000 baler. 20
"a PR cent; and North American spip. -
rs 5000 bales, or 20 per cent. There seems y
bano reason 10 suppose that the division Of y
E present crop viii differ materially from the r
u. u Is no doubt true that, up to the Tres al.
6 time, TIE shipments 10 England show an ~
Increase upon last year, while those ~
continent are considerably less, and The c.
Of Northern SINNERS about the n
ne. But the movements Of the crop, ID
early date, are no test whatever Of its
mate d~iyisioni the varying aspect Of the
'erent markets, and the ftful currents Of
nmercisl speculation, cause the greatest IL
ln the earlier stage Of distribution, q,
he the latter division usually restores the a.
There is no doubt that from In
y to the end OF the season, The shipments 10 III
continent wiIl rapidly gain in relation to To
gland. on
Z Enropean naliHrs r~nntinne aettled- the a,