Nashville union and American. [volume] (Nashville, Tenn.) 1853-1862, 1860-10-10
Regent Theories in meteOroIOgv-AS series
of Severe winters Predicted.

OF severe winters Predicted
The last number of the North British Reuie,o has
an article on "Recent Theories in MeteorolOgy,"
in which are noticed some of the speculations
theories connected with meteorOlogy which have
lately attracted attention. but especially the period
icity Of Seoere tonters. The theory that the solar
spots have dece1idl period, seems TO be established
BY number of independent continuous observa-
tons. And although NJ. HOfrath Schwartz, whose
table of observations from 1924 to $780, the writer
in the ReUielo quotes traces sensible connection
between climatic condition and the number of spots"
General SabiIe has made the remarkable discovery
that there is decennidl period exactly correspond
ing with the solar period in the greater frequency
duration and occasional magnitude of the magnetic
disturbances when the suns disc is most obscure by
dark spots. ..I.. ..EE %
In continuing the study of these phenomena, NJ
Wolf has collected, from nearly four hundred vol
umes. all the observations Solar spots from the
time of Fabricius, Calico Scheiner, to Schwabe :;
and he has found, by means of sixteen different
epochs established by the minimum and the max
mum of Solar spots that the mean duration of these
| spots is llll1 plus O.O3S years.
So that nine periods exactly equivalent to a
| century. NJ. Wolf has also found that in each
century the years 600, ILL., 22.22, $685. 4444 55.-
ST. 6667, 7778 $3.50. correspond to the Tuinmum of
sun spots. 1t appears by Schwabes table. that in
1888 the number of sun spots was 49, with l39 days
free from spots and in 1874 it was 81 with III day
| free, while the maximum years were 1925 225
groups of spots and no days free from them 1887,
and no days free. -....... .....-r.F
Mr.. Wolf has studied the connection between the
weather and the spots the sun, and declares the
result to be in accordance with the opinion of Sir
William Herschel "that the years in which the spots
are more numerous, are also drler and more fertile
| than others; the years with few spots being more
moist and stormy" Mr.. Wolf has added another
interesting fact that the borealis and earth
quakes predominant strkingly when the solar spots
| are most numerous The reviewer concludes from
| sbo bn hu
tensve observation, the character of the seasons
may be predicted with at least degree of GER
| tanty.
The recent and important attempt however to
establish meteorological law the authority of
historical facts and direct observations, by NJ Renou
| in the memoir "On the Periodcity of Severe Win.
| tiers" has been made the principal subject of the
article in the review. NJ. Renou is Secretary to the
Meteorological Society of France; and he has GER
tainy rendered it very probable that rigorous win
tiers occur in groups at certain distance from each
| other NJ. RenOu defines a rigorous winter as one
which ought to give rise at Paris TO minima of tenn
perature from deg. Fair to Zero and of mean
temperature kept up during the month at several
/ degrees below 81 deg, the freezing point The
simultaneous freezing of the Seine and the Pc, of
the Rhone the lakes of Venice or the ports of the
Mediterranean, which must be the result of a con-
| tinued cold of more than deg, are the necessary
| characteristics of a rigorous winter.
On examining meteorological registers, published
at different epochs N. RenOu found that severe win
tiers were very unequally distributed, but that in
place of occurring in an arbitrary manner, they
formed natural groups four to six, surrounding
| winter more rigorous than the rest, to which he
gives the name of central luiRe. BY uniting these
| groups he discovered the law of their distribution
namely, that they were reproduced after an inter
val of little more than fOrtyOne years. Occasion.
ally however, the period is effaced, rather mask
ed, the cold distributing itself over great number
of short less rigorous and more separated winters
but an average, the great winters occupy space
of twenty twenty-One years, leaving another
equal interval without remarkable winters.
| We can not in this abstract, follow the calcula
tiOns of NJ. RenOu with any Particularly his results
being the object we have in view. The year 1896
was, in his observation, central winter. The pc
riOd which ought to follow is that Of 1871 In 1855
60 reached the first winter of this group; "and
the colG' says NJ. Renou, "Ot the 18th and 10th De
cember falls too completely under my prediction &c
make me delay the publication of this note. | shall
not be surprised if at the next return of cold the
thermometer at the observatory descends lower
than in December. We shall have, after this win
ter. one, probably two rigorous winters, increas
ing in severity to a central winter, which will bC
toward 1871 then decreasing series, even to 1881
| Rigorous winters, according to NJ Rcnou, may
extend themselves indefinitely toward the pole bu
they do not effect the equatorial regions, excepting
perhaps, in modifying in small degree, the temper
allure OF some months and IN producing more co
plous rains and stronger winds. Their influence
seems to stop the thirteenth degree of latitude
a remarkable limit, which is nearly the limit o.
winters properly so called and which divides eact
hemisphere into two equivalent parts. ut is pro
bable," says NJ. RenOu, that in the half that ha:
winters each country will be visited in its turn will
a rigorous winter; and in this case the eartf
ought to be thus visited in fortyone years, the win
ter ought to extend itself each time over the eighty
second part of the globe, a surface equal Il
twelve times that of France This, indeed, Is near
ly the extent which great winters seem to embrace
They appear to occupy a space little elongated
from the northeast to the southwest; and am lee
to believe that they propagate themselves from thC
east to the west so as TO through the northern
hemisphere in twenty or twenty-one years and ther
through the southern hemisphere in the same time
and while we have only ordinary winters. The es
sentally maritime character, however. of the south
ern hemisphere ought to render its severe winters
less distinctly marked than they with u.s.