New Orleans daily crescent., 1860-07-02
asIxEsrDENTxAL CHANCES.

may be said OF his honesty IS politicians nm
aoabtedly very shrewd and sagaeious parsonage
Ia his calculations of the future. Belonging to no
party, and owning no allegiance to any, he takes
his positions, either upon enc side or the other,
just as it may happen to suit his interest or his
fancy. But he almost always manages to be upon
the winning side. He finds out, in advance, how
the political current Is rnnning, and takes pains
to- drift along with that current rather than to
struggle against il. With the exception of the
last Presidential contest, when he took sides for
Fremont, (and be then did not miss the mark very
farD he has, we believe, always been in the inter-
est Of The successful party in every Presidential
election we have had since the establishment of
bis Journal.
Oh the day after the disruption of the Baltimore
Convention The Herald had an article on the sub
ject, from which the following is an extract:
Substantially, Mr. Douglas Is confined as Presi-
dential candidate to the Northern States; for
doubtless the Seceders' Convention will put up
ticket on their Southern Rights platform, which
will carry all the Southern States that are not
carried BY the Bell and Everett ticket. This ticket
has now very good prospect Of carrying, not
only Maryland, but Delaware, North Carolina,
Tennessee, Kentucky, and even Old Virginia,
which, thus far, has never failed as the Southern
bnlwark Of the Democracy.
ton had nominated Breckenridge and Lane but
the force Of It's declarations and predictions is not
weakened By that circumstance. The usual sa-
gacity Of tile Herald i apparent in these specula
ticns concerning the issue Of the contest.
II Is undoubtedly true, Ia our opinion, that Mr..
Douglas candidacy is confined, as the Herald
says, substantially to the Northern States The
indications in The South are against the probability
OF his carrying single Southern State. That he
viii get o large vote in some of them is evident
but not large enough to give him the plurality.
With the Democracy generally voting for Breekin-
ridge, aud the Opposition voting for Bell and
Everett, MIR. Douglas vote in all the Southern
States bids fair to be the smallest of the three.
In the North. IL Is scarcely TO be expected that
Doueas viii obtain many electoral votes, with tile
Democratic strength divided between himself and
Brecknridges True, Douglas will get nearly oa the
individual Democratic votes. from present indica
tons. and Breckenridge but very few. But in those
states-and they comprise nearly all the North
where the whole conservative vote. when anited,
il exceeded by the Black Republican. il s folly to
expeet that Douglas can succeed when that vote
is divided between himself, Breckenridge and Bell.
Mr. Douglas, then, has no chance of an election
ID the Presidency by the people-nor. indeed. has
Mfr. Brecknridge. If the Southern people were
for him, that would not alter the case
because the vote Of the South Is insufficient, Of
itself, to elect President. Thirty.two Northern
votes, Id addition to those Of the united Ssutb are
required to elect. Where can Mr. Breckinridge ob-
tain thirty.two Northern votes even sunnos;ny him
Io carry THE entire Soutls OREGON ana California
CONT seven. and That 4 an IL witch tbere Il I'm
east prospect. If the United Democratic marty
,annot carry New York ana pennsylvania ana
New Jersey and Illinois Al has feen ,rovea II the
ast three ~ four STATE elections how ~, Rreck.
nridae hone 10 carry Them n anv ona III tbem
Willie Douglas ssbtracts from hin, perl,ans ninety
,sr cent 81 she whole strength of the nartvs
But Breckinridge cannot carry ali of the South |
srn States. He could not il Ii were straieht-out
contest between himself ana BeIl-stilI less when
70 large portion of the Democratic vote Il
diverted 10 Douglas. BY what process. then. can
he election Of Breckenridge BE nossiblv 8pured
pats If the whole South be ipsnficient Il elect
him how al, he be elected viii, 4 nrasnact ~ ~
Herald wen saws. If lie states IL MARYLAND Nortb
Carolina. Tennessee Kentnckv Dalawara an5
even VIRGINIA /, eonr ~ All, 4, -
tha iivision If tbe sont,ern Den ,ots =.
tween nouuIas and RE lsinridgaa )
in ta present state If affairs ali H. clarces -
h f. vor If tbe alac,;on If r;nco,r r6a NJ, I.
i tl,a e,ectoraI collaoa ia 80 ~ ,ao
ma ;,,r;f,, ~ t,,e solo ;s 1so ~ ~
Iore has 4 n bsr M pay r. s,eet and !,
,,,ara 5nool,, oss r..
ayu;a ana at Is alsctsa n -
~ J,sa,,s - ~,
,,aetsd M sso,:s
~ 10, = s, u
- ~
!, ,s - M
,;cnt III. ,Ias,,s e ss -
ya .,ast;o,, ta, I. tt;s.
- uyssa1t eond;snr - t,,;,,,, 4; ~
pltinp inevital,lv II i Blaclr renuhl;ca, ,r;r
4 yvhetIe, the,e salI no - ts ,,,,,sa..a
IN iI martina ,,rf n o,,s ~,
lld Everatt thersF,y ssenrinr the suceess ~ mo-.
t tta
q sectidnalIsts. This i. now. the naked ;ssra
To otler solution of the diftienlty i ,cticabIe
careely any other il possible.
Ift tl,e Sontl. then nn;te nnon Rail ann r,v.,s,t
,hs will tive them l2o votes ID start with N tba
forth. sirailar combination of Democrats Whios
nd Americans upon Bell and Everett win defest
ireoln We honestly believe. ii at least .l,aIf
he States az 4hat aecfion. IF tha cartsst ~
owed dawn simnlv Ia Bel and Eyerett "a ana s;,a
i'd Lincoln and Hamlin 81 the other-.and III
icket Of fhc former BE sustained ~ In the cop.