The Ottawa free trader. [volume] (Ottawa, Ill.) 1843-1916, 1860-08-11
The Vote of PENNSYLVANIA this Fan.

In 1896 the Democratic vote in this
State was 23o, 'I2; the Republican a.
800; the American S2,202 Total 400 937
democratic over Republican, S2.S0y, over
American, l+9, ,5I4: over both, 6u1 The
Republican minority on the popular vote
was l6J,OlI Now divide the increase OF
votes in the State at the election over that
of 1856 equally between the two parties,
and the Republicans must induce $500
of those who voted against them in 1886,
to change their votes in their favor in 1860,
to carry the State Lv majority vote
When we take into account the great pop
ularity of voung Fremont at that tiuI.,
and the coldness with which the nomiua-
ton Of Lincoln has been received. and his
conceded unpopuiarityin the state we think
no sane man can expect the Republicans
to obtain q ma orty of the votes cast this
fall Their partial success in the State
elections since 1886 has been owing ell
tirely TO local causes and divisions in the
Democratic party. These local causes Will
have but little influence in Presidential
contest, and the divisions in the Demo
cratic party have been in great measure
healed by the nomination of Mr. Douglas
Those who have voted against the party
in their State elections, since 1856. on ac-
count OF the unpopularity of Mr. Buchan-
an and his Administration. will now vote
for Mr.. Douglas, who also opposed the
measures of the administration, which
were unpopular with them. Under these
circumstances il is safe to calculate that
the Republican party will not increase
their vote on Lincoln above that which
they gave to Fremont more than their
share Of the increased vote OF the State -
Estimate this increase at ID per cent on
the vote Of 1896. and 1t amounts to GJli
give the Republicans one half, 3i5I, and it
increased their vote, taking 1876 a| bl-
SIS, to lji TO which viii leave them 50
800 below ma aiOritv III the STATE. This
is estimating their vote a. high. ~ think.
as il can be claimed to reach under any
c;rcun-tauces ~ it allows them - retain
their entire vote for Fremont. II more poru
lar candidate than Lincoln. and gives
them onc-iIali OF Tia" increased vote OF the
Statr. We doubt ii th. most ardent Re
puhiicaus will clam more than this
The only question, then. for II, further
TO examine l., viii the III 40 votes which
the Republican candidates may possibly
obtain in PENNSYLVANIA lie plurality? 1t
will be seen that 3l6.i3l vote are left
from which one Of the three other ca"di-
dates in the field must obtain larger vote
.
/ The vote for Mr.. Fillmore in $50 was =,
POP Mr.. Fillmore had been President
of the United States for nearly two years.
He was an able statesman, and an upright
honest man His administration was very
popular in Pennsylvania, not only because
Of his integrity and executive ability, but
because he favored the protection of the
iron manufactures, in which that State
has much capital embarked, and great in
terests involved. Take into the account
the fact that there Is no prospect Of Ia"
election OF Mr.. Reil, as all must admit that
mis- name cannot possibly 90 INTO the
3 House of Representatives should the eiec
ton 20 there Is Il not reasonable to estl
mate that his vote rhis fall, under these
. circumstances. VIII not exceed ipVJur-
The chances certainly are that If perfect
union i not formed between the support
ers OF the Union candidates and those o;
bIr. Douglas, their votes will fall short o!
/ $4,000. rather than exceed that figure -
The broad, conservative, national prIncl
pies of the Democracy who have nonlina
! wild, those OF the un,on party than tll22
avoweA principles of either the other
] candidates, and there being no hope o.
{ the election of Mr.. Bell. the Union men
must. in accordance with their professions
and noble Union sentiments, support Mr.
/ Douglas.
I In accordance with this estimate there
, remains 216, 43l votes to be divided be
tween Mr. Douglas and Mr Breck enriige
II we are 10 Judge from the vote of Penn
~vlvau!a in favor of Mr. Douglas in the
Nationa! Conveution-if we are To form
an estimate Of the preference Of the De
nocratic party from public meetings and
h.. h. "a.
intelligent citizens from every part %. the
State with whom We have couver-el. Mr.
BRECKENRIDGE with all Mr.. Buchauaus in
tiuence and patronage cannot r-ce We owe,
one-fourth OF tl.e Democratic vote o; IT,,
State
To avoid all appearance Of rnfairncs
and want OF candor, we will estimate It a
one-third. which VIII be % IA votes 4
there is no other candidate to divide til,
Democratic vote Mr. Douglas viii receiy,
lSi2S,. This will BE- -, So over Mr. Lin
coin. and give him tn. electoral vote q
the State with a utIrgin OF 80 U)J 10 cove
CONTINGENCIES.
Ii the Republicans claim that thcy car
draw from the 10000 votes estimated I,
MIR. Bell sufficient to carry the state fo
Mr.. Lincoln. we answer that Nh DpuGia
Will stand Il better chance for those vote
if Mr.. Bell is dropped than Nr. L;ncoll
will If Mr.. Bell should poll large
vote than We have estimated. we thiuI
the increase will come from the Repubii
. can rank>-frOm those who are alarmed q
the John Brown raid, disgusted with Mr.
Summers ftnatici>m. and who rrcmble tol
the perpetuitv Of the Union, rather thar
from conservative { mon Democrats. On
the other side we are OF opinion that Nh
breckenridge will not receive 10000 vote
in the State This will place the vote o
Mr. Douglas beyond the reach of Mr. Lin
coin, and give the electoral vote of th'
State to him beyond ncradyenture. A.
goes the Key State so goes the Union
is an old saving. Pennsylvania has sci
dom if ever, voted ior un unsuccessf,!
candidate.
For DouGL,s-The DGiy Times, Of A
bar,y y y which has claimed to be indie