The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1859-09-16

II VIII, we trust, wake up some Of our c0ntem-
poraries who are content to 90 to sleep ON the
small results which they have achieved.
Treasury Estimates and tho Facts.
IL Is beginning to be discovered at the Tres
sury Department that the country Is recovering
from the depression Of 1878, and that Mr..
Secretary Cobb's estimates are not entitled T.
as much reliance as might be wished. Il seens
that both the receipts from customs and the az
penditure for the public service are turnins
out very differently from his predictions In :
word, that Mr.. Cobb's estimates for the current
fiscal year are about as wide Of the mark as his
estimates for 1868 subsequently proved. The
discovery curiously illustrates the rapid reco-
very of the country and the singular foresight
of the Treasury Department.
On the 9Th Of December, 1857, Mr.. Cobb sent
to Congress his estimates for the fiscal year 1855.
of which FIVE months had then elapsed In
Guiding the balance in the Treasury, which
amounted to SIT ,7l0,ll4, he estimated the Or
binary receipts of that year from customs,
lands and miscellaneous sources, at the sum Of
$75,389, 1884. When the accounts of the year
were made up, a year afterward, it turned
out that these receipts had only amounted
to SCI, 983,9S3, and that the government
had only been enabled to pay its way
by the issue Of Treasury notes. Mr. Cobb had
made too little allowance for the economy.
forced and voluntary, which was observed By
the people at large after the crisis of 1861.
The importations, and consequently the customs
receipts, proved much less than he had ex-
pected.
Presently the tide turns. After two years Of
inaction and stagnation people begin to revive.
Enormous cotton and grain crops restore pros
perity to the South and West, and diffuse life
and commerce throughout the country Busi-
ness springs up as rapidly as it had succumbed;
the importations again begin to be enormous,
and people consume more foreign fabrics than
they did in 1857. Once more the event falsi-
fes Mr.. Cobb's predictions.
On the 9th of December last the report of tho
Secretary of the Treasury announced that the
estimated revenue for the current fiscal year
QS59-6O) was 69,O63,29 including s56,O0O,-
600 from customs, and $7,O63,298 balance In
hand on July l., 1859; the estimated expendi-
ture, S73, $780, lat; and the consequent deficit at
the end of the year S4,075,s4s. The year has
now begun and enough of the course of trade
is seen to show that both receipts and expendi-
lures will vary widely from these estimates,
and that the balance at the end of the year
will probably be a surplus, and not
deficit. 1t Is estimated that the great crops Of
the West and South will enable the people to
take Of foreign goods this fiscal year $780,
100000 worth, which, at the average rate of
duty, would yield the Treasury sum OF
s624OO, 900, not S56,OOO,0OO as stated by Mr..
Cobb. The expenditures it now appears, will
not exceed s63, BOG, O0O instead of S73,139,147:
and by this showing, there should be balance
of nearly Sl4,O0O,0o0 in the Treasury on lat
July, 1860, instead Of deficit of 81 100000.
The prospect is cheering indeed, and should
redouble the caution of those whom periods Of
great imitation and great prosperity so fire.
quently lead into danger. Now is the time for
prudence, or next year We may have new re-
vuision growing out Of the very prosperity Of
the country. Now is the time for Stockholders
in banks, railroads. and corporate institutions
Of all kinds, to look closely after their mana
gers, and to scrutinize narrowly expenditures
and enterprises Of all kinds, for that great con-
servative agent poverty, is fast disappearing.
and we are on the threshold of period that
will tempt men to indulge in all kinds of specu-
lation and all kinds of extravaganza As il il
with farmers, who, as they well know, seldom
go to ruin except when their farm produce
is very high in price, it is with the people aS
large-the hour of prosperity is the moment Of
danger. Let those who saw and those who
suffered by the crisis Of 1857, see to it that the
crops Of 1859, and the immense
results which are being gradually developed
throughout the land, prove not the forerunner
Of another such catastrophe.
And, in the meantime, perhaps the Treasury
Department at Washington will do well, before
making any more estimates like those for 1865
and those for 1860 to consult some discreet and
experienced New York merchant and inquire
Of him what the prospects Of trade may be- II
would be very sad to see the public faith per-