The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1859-06-10
The Relation of War 10 rr.as-A Word or

The Relation OF War 20 Tra<le--A Word OF
Caution to Our Msrchants.
There is no subject upon which more crude
notions are emitted by the selfstyied commercial
journals of this country than that of the relation
between war and the Interests Of trade, and the
probable effect of the present war in Europe
upon American commerce.
With GOODNESS and selfcomplscency that 10
refreshing to behold, they take up one after an
other several of the items that enter into the ag
gregate Of our trade, and with an owl-like CRAWL
ty pronounce their fiat, which to their pigmy
view settles the whole question. To them the
vast complications of the effect Of war upon pro-
due ion, consumption, exchange Of commodities,
c-eoi, aud capital, are nothing. Thus they argue
thss our agricultural interests cannot be injured
py war. because If war lessons producers In Eu-
,ope the deficiency arising from that cause must
be supplied by US; forgetting that every nations
power Of consumption depends upon its pow
er of production and its facilities for ex-
changing commodities. They insist that war
cannot lessen the number Of ships requir-
cd 10 transport our produce to Earope-9yo,
that our shipping must prosper-nnmind-
full that war, by drying up the employment of
shipping in other branches Of trade, may increase
tie concurrence Of tonnage to the employment
offered by our commerce. They opine that war
may greatly diminish the foreign production Of
manufactured goods, and thus advance the price
Of our own fabrics, ignoring the potent fact that
unless the war RACES at the very scene Of foreign
manufacturers for instance, Lyons and Man
chester, which Is not very probability cutting
off some of the consuming markets it must In
crease the supply Of foreign manufactured goods
to our own, which will not be very likely to en-
bance the price Of our domestic fabrics. And,
finally, they believe that, because the public
securities Of European governments have de-
clihed largely in value, every European holder
ties, which fact, they think, will have an i'm
mensely beneficial influence on our monetary
affairs.
In thus reasoning, too, they show very little
reflection on the motives that really influence
human action. Il is not necessary to refer to the
limited knowledge possessed by the greater part of
the people of Europe Of America, three thousand
miles distant of American affairs and of Ameri-
can securities The latter, except among very
limited circle, do not enjoy very good general
reputation in Europe, nor even very general
good reputation at home. But the idea that be
cause European securities have experienced
large depreciation at home, the people who hold
them are going to sell out stocks that they have
known all their lives, and invest in others that
they know nothing about, is utterly fallacious
In the first place, though the market values Of
the securities have declined, the promised rate Of
dividend is the same Then. IF the holder were
disposed to sell, he must make up his mind to
submit to large sacrifice in his invested capital
in order to turn it into money, and then consent
to an equal sacrifice Of his yearly income in
seeking inves ment at higher prices in securities
which may command the general confidence.
But beyond this it is not characteristic of the
human mind to accept large sacrifices Of slow
ly accumulated property by forcing sales ut
time of sudden and unusual depression. Agitated
by varying fears, it chngs to every hope, and, re-
flsing to throw away In one moment the gains Of
half lifetime, it hugs the idea that
things will come round again. A thou
sand Influences come to assist this
hope: old confidence, the remembrance of re-
lisiously paid dividends long continued, preju-
dice, the pride of national faith, ignorance Of
other investments and, above all, the doubt In
spired in these by the fact Of the decline Of the
fayorite and cherished securities Who shall
convince the holder Of deprecated securities
that al other bonds are not Just as liabe TO de-
cline as his? The truth is, that general de-.
cline in European securities may In some degree
affect ours who in the European markets and
repel Investments from them.
It's thus that those who cry out that we are
going to have such good times here misjadge
the true relation Of war to the interests of trade
The truth is that the complications of cause and
effect are SO great that no man can obtain all
the data necessary to a knowledge Of the re-
suits. We can only reason on them in a general
way. We know that in a time Of war the CAPT
tai that stimulates commerce in time of peace
is turned into new channels that many Of the
peaceful pursuits are stopped, that new sources
Of business created, in the shape of contracts
supplies for the army, loans for excessive gov
eTmens eApenuitufc, anu 81 Iortn, WmAe Tue
old systems Of trade and finance, with
their extended credits and obligations to mature,
wither and decay; that the exchange Of commo-
dities is attended with new dangers, new doubts,
new expenses Of insurance and of carriage, and
the probability Of great losses, accompanied
with vague hope Of great profits. These in
fuences diminish the sum Of commerce and its
average reward. So connected are the ralni6ca-
tions Of trade that the injury Of part rebounds
to the prejudice Of oil.
Let US now look at some of the signs that
mark the course Of the tide of trade in Europe
and in this country. An article from London
paper, which We reprint in another column
closes its remarks on the quarterly returns Of
british trade with some s;rn;scant f,nts Tho