Wilmington journal. [volume] (Wilmington, N.C.) 1844-1895, 1859-07-29

Can. under CIRCUMSTANCES be ADMITTED.
of American It is obvious therefore, that Surats must
come into larger consumption to readus equilibrium
between the two classes This process may be brought
about partly by the improved style of the new crop oco
ton stimulating larger demand but suspect some
nducement must also be offered in the shape of relative
y lower prices than exist at present By these
we believe that the consumption of Surats which, per
hap does not exceed at present 5000 bales per week.
will be- raised for the remainder of the year to 5000
bales per week. and that the consumption of American
cotton may thus De kept down 81 900 bales per week.
while otherwise it might have reached $4,000 bales. We
will assume then that the consumption for the remain
der of the year will be divided as follows:
Consumption of american cotton q, 600 600 bales
Brazil, Egyptian, &c ', J, 49,. -. 1000
Gross weekly consumption, ........ 600 bales.
We have now lastly to consider the probable amount
OF export. In the early port of this season very
large amount of American cotton purchased chiefly
for Russia and the shipments consequence have been
very heavy up to this date so that the amount of that
class exported is at present 10000 bales in excess of
last year. when the total attained the large amount of
l50000 bales. 1t would not be safe, however TO take
the actual shipments thus far criterion of the pro-
babe export for the year The outbreak of war on the
Continent gave great blow to this branch of trade
and if the political relations of Germany continue so
unsettled they at present. the export to that quar-
ter will not prove large. In Russia however, there has
been great expansion of trade and her requirements
ABOVE
but she has already obtained large supply directly
from the States and UiG England, her wants for the
remainder of the will probably be moderate The
small amount of cotton bought in this market for export
since the commencement of the war; also lends counte
to this view and were it not for the anomalous
position of the Havre market, should anticipate
lighter export henceforward than occurred last
But at that port the panic in the beginning of the year
induced such caution that it has failed to secure
adequate supply of cotton and must draw largely from
EnCrIon and Iatn in thn IN
exhaustonIof stock. Its position may be described in
single sentence The stock in Havre, on the oath June,
estimated at 10000 bales less than last year, with
very little more to receive from the States while the
consumption is proceeding on very large scalebeng
10000 bales per week for the first five months this
year, against average Of 5000 bales per week last
year. But before the cotton began to arrive, the
stock at Havre last year was reduced to less than three
weeks consumption it is obvious therefore, that large
supplies must be drawn from Liverpool to provide for
the French consumption till the next crop becomes
available On these grounds are disposed to think
that the export of American cotton for the remainder
OF the season will keep up to that of last yearsay at
the rate of 1000 bales per weekbringng the total up
to 100000 bales. -.
In Surat cotton the export thus far is also $4,000
bales ahead of last year. If through the influence of
heavy supplies the price of this description rules cheap
for the remainder of the season. the export may proba
bly, keep up to 5000 bales per week, rather larger
than the average of last year On this supposton the
export of Surat cotton from Liverpool for the year will
amount to l44,00O bales against 1000 bales last
year. In longstaped cotton will allow the same
port for the remainder of the that has taken place
already, viz: 10000 bales and we are now able to es
innate the stock that the foregoing hypothesis will
remain in Liverpool en- the 3lst December.
Bales. Bales
Estimated supply of American cotton i, 900
EUnort OOV 900 27 weeks 900
Probable stock of American cotton 3lst Dec.. 10000
Estimated supply Of surat cotton. n........, 35O,OOO
ESpsGHp'l0n' ESport sSS0 SSS 5000 27 weeks $4,000
Probable stock of Surat cotton, 3lst Dec. 1874 600
Estimated supply of Brazil and Egyptian. 10000
Export .,o'o rei "eeA 1900 1860 1l8OoO
Probable stock of Brazil Egyptian &C. ...... $4,000
Stock of all sorts in Liverpool 3lst Dec 1859 1856 900
If this view proves correct it appears that we shall
conclude the year, with aggregate stock, substantial
y the same as last year, but very differently divided the
proportion OF American cotton being relatively very
SMALL and nearly 100000 bales less than at the end of
1858. This scarcity will also be felt the from the
unusual amount of rubbish comprised in the existing
Stock much of which will doubtless survive to the end
of the year, and proong existence most disasteu to
holders.
1t would seem therefore, from the present aspect of
the cotton trade that the position of the market is good
and warrants the existing currency We have the broad
fact before us that crop OF three millions and three
quarters has been than absorbed by the world for
stocks will be lighter at the end than the beginning of
the year and this too takes place under state of war
fare which appears to indicate that, if peace were
stored crop of four millions would be disposed of next
year.
On the other hand it must not be forgotten that an
extension Of the present might affect trade far
njuriousy than it has hitherto done. If Germany be-
came involved and her ports bockaded the channels of
consumption would be greatly obsructed, and much ad
ditional supply thrown back Liverpool while
tive interference of this country in the struggle would
utterly derange the whole course of the trade and affect
prices in a way that it is impossible to conjecture.
There appears, then, to be three courses which the
market may pursue, according to political Developments
If the is localized to Italy, and matters continue in
stat" quo, which the view Of the question have
here adopted, the market rests sound basis, and
present prices to be justified but if peace
restored before the end of the year, such impulse
would be given to the trade that consumption would
again oustp supply unless the crops next year proved
enormous but, thirdly, an uerior extension of the
war, which is far from improbable might block up the
natural avenues Of trade, and completely change the
character of the market so that the whole, the
motives for caution still remain in full force, and the
present scale of prices though warranted in
cia vew is too high to be elastic and leaves small scope
for profitable trade MERCATOR.
Liverpool, June 30, 1859