New-York daily tribune. [volume] (New-York [N.Y.]) 1842-1866, 1859-09-10


received in the favorable Of the les, three weeks
has been derived from the more encouraging state.
ments Of present aud prospective busiress on the
Western Railways Much OF this rests upon substan-
tia foundation for there can be no doub, that in the
movement Of very aburdan. crop, and in the partial
reyysl Of the general business OF the West the rail
ways Of that section of the country, and TO fair eI
tent their connecting lines to receive some bene.
fit. We apprehend, however, that in this crude view
Of the subject, there degree of e1aggeration and
msconception which is likely to lead superficial OBJ
servers very much astrsy and it may not be unworthy
Of the attention of those who incline to investigate the
matter 10 take all of the facts into oref considera-
ton. The first shock to the prosperity Of our
Railways, and especially to that Of our ~ e.rn roads
vas received from The panic of 1857 out its fl effects
were rot vi,ibe until the Autumn Of ls5sthe roads
having tie surplus Of q large crop to move after &
partial relief bad been experienced in money matters
The great decline in earnings therefore, com neuced
at tia. period and rendered more striking by the
crop failure Of 1873 which reduced the business of
that Autumn and the Sprirg Of 1883 TO points which
bsrely suiced TO pay running expenses and interest
on the best roads OF the West. The period at which
this poverty Of business most decidedly illustrated
may be fixed at September, 1853, and the statistical
inquirer will find from this date up to August 1852
very serious decline in the figures, following the
comparison through 1858 ard 1889. We find,
therefore, in this examination that the Autumn
Of 1853 was most deplorsbe in its exhibit of railway
earning, and it is With that business that are nov
beg inning to make comparison. The result OF L AZ
business was, .s we are already informed by ofcia
statements, scarcely more than enough to pay eI-
4 - - L., ID oh
less upon those Of the eecond class. The Galens
Road earned between and y cent on its stock,
under the most liberal construction of its business
The Michigan Central barely earned its Interest and
sinking fund; and the Michigan Southern earned con-
sderaby less than nteres. and sinking fund, ncuiing
unpaid interest on floating debt. 1t is with such
year then that We are about to enter upon com
psrison. With crop of magnificent abundance,
commencing it's movement TO the seaboari
we are to chronicle increased earnings as the
autumn progresses, and to draw therefrom
the Arguments in favor Of recuperation in the value
Of the stocks. The consequence will be- probably
that in witnessing any improvement at all, we shall
lose sight Of the fact that the comparison IL made
with very poor business and thus the fruition
of favorable change, which is 10 fact bat in It's IN
cpency. This is very natural but at the same time
over sarguine expectations and disappointed hopes.
Let US examine the facts. The West has a prolific
harvest bnt cereal products rule at low prices a. the
seaboard The crops must come forward, however,
for the West is in debt and lie in want of supplies of
Eastern fabrics and Of Eastern imports. The rich
harvest of grain is pushed forward to the Lake
by rail, for it can go by no other means
Of transportation so conveniently and once forwarded
t,f l,,g
igation closes. We are thus assured of a very fair
increase of business the roads west and south Of
the lake ports which seek water outlets for cereal
products, and consequently we may count with toll
cradle certainty upon increased traffic returns upon
the Gslena, Rock leland Illinois Central, Chicago
Burlington, and Quincy and other roads enptying
their business into the lake ports. Upt the middle
of November We may look for such resuts-but at
that time the improvement will probably have
reached its climax for the season. The roads
east Of Chicago have much less favorable pros
poets. The Michigan Central and Michigan South
ern, contendipg for through business, will not
only have TO compete with water transportation,
but they will this year share business with two rival
lines-the Fort Wayne and Chicago, and Detroit snd
Milwaukee roads-the former shortening the distance
between NewYork and Chicago nearly 100 miles, the
latter making direct communication by way Of the
Like, avoiding the detour TO Chicago. We shall
therefore witness, probably, an increase in business
on the roads west and south Of Chicago and Milwaukee
while in those east Of those Lake ports and especially
n the Michigan Central and Southern roads it is ex-
remely doubtful if We have any important increase.
In this Improvement in business, upon such lines as
he Galena and Rock Island for example, viii the COM
osrison be made judiciousyl Probably not FIR
already upon mere anticipation the stocks advanced
rom to 10 y cent, and in the heat Of speculation no
'ne asks the nature of the improvement, nor upon
What it is established. Stripped OF the poetry with
which speculation always clothes the facts we fnd
hat people calculate upon profits which are not as
ured, and rush into the speculative arens with blind
reduity, making no allowance for the poverty of the
past IN their anticpations of the future this position
d matters are We now progressing. The great point
et ms to be- to ;cetsn whether any gain in business
an be realized at all but TO the nature of the in
il is upon fair earnings of the pre-
nous year, or whether il IA gain upon the most |
miserable traffic which the rosds ever had-does not
appear to be taken into account. The assumption of
lie speeulator il, that upon the first turning of the
lde OF business, the Western roads are to lump At
nee from adversely 10 high state of prosperity but
he alscy of this calculation W il be demonstrated be-
ore the year closes. We have great faith in the re-
operative capacities Of many of the Western rail ~ays
md is gratifying 10 witness the commencement of
N improvement in business but il serves no good |
purpose TO exaggerate their immediate prospects, aod
o convey al impression that return TO fair profits
nd good dividends is TO follow at once from the mode
ate Improvement Of this autumn over period of I'm.
xampled depression in railway business. When the |
ever Of speculation has its course and the facts
re fairly ard ntelgenty examined, i. will be found,
e think, that false hopes have been excited upon |
spgune and superficial calculations.