The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1859-11-07
Our Buffalo Correspondence.
ra BUFFALo, Oct 20, 1859.
u.-.y~A.... -. A cs~s. Er..I.o.

ENMt5 rt BUFFALO, Oct. ZS 1901
Spoculations on the State Election.
Within the last ten days have mingled pretty freely
with the voting classes Of all parties in different parts Of
tho State, being III my way (not say inclipation)
Just well rot to do So have improved tho opportu
nifty afforded me To to conclusion as TO what
viii be the result Of the election. win remark that If
much experience in such matters in former years BIO
considered preparing TO judge with some accuracy
may be able to give an opinion not altogether without
value. ,asAe N u fHtrNsA
In the first place. the key question s how many votes
win be cast by the Know Nohings for the Utica mixed
aCke,a must DO conceded that If they cast certain
number they will carry the day. What must be that
number and viii they get i9 Let us examine the ques
ton Nominay the republicans set out with some II 600
ahead Of the democrats but really not many for
the that the republican vote Of last fall obtained
through extraordinary exertions such they will not
be able to make this fall, while the democrats IL is
ceded besides having the advantage of some fortous
circums that having their influence the
vass are making more enVl. ana Sse gcng Denea
mnished vote In the rural districts which will take more
from the republicans than the democrats, whose great
vote is in the Cities and which always comes out In
Short the "Quakers are not going To vote in large num-
This OF things has the effect TO eqazc the repu
hcan and democratic columns those parties pretty
nearly the race and make it easier for the
Utica ticket with comparatively small number Of votes,
70 win the race Iconcade then and must be the con-
Cuson of every well informed that twenty thousand
votes cast for the Utica ticket will beyond any sort OF
doubt decide the contest. This conclusion would hold
good allowing the strength OF the other two parties
70 be the ast fanothng taken from the repub
beans, nothing added to the democraswhch is the very
best that the republicans canhopc for taking the State rs
u whole.
Me Utica ucke answer that there cannot be tho pos
sbility Of doubt Of II; and II is my conviction after
careful survey personally made, OF much of the field,
that will be upwards Of 10000 Two weeks or ten days
ago might not with safety have been certainly
stated not then settled what the Know Nothngs
would do for there for time much doubt whether
they would not refuse altogether the Utica ticket and
scatter themselves among the other parties or STAY at
home To some extent this will unquestonab!y be the
now, but it is rendered certain that more than ty
per Of the Know Nothing vote of last fall Isl 000
will be for the mixed ticket, which, everybody
sec, settles the matter What will become Of the ba-
lancer The answer furnishes no hope Of changed re-
suit If anything, the large share OF the remaining
30 600 will 60 the democrats. The drift unmsake-
atmosphere as he goes among the people have heard
many good judges say that while two weeks ago the
test between the Utica ticket and the republicans
b now between the Utica ticket and the democrats.
There indefinite number Of voters OF all sorts, for
variety Of reasons, besides the Know Nothings who
willing tho Utica ticket succeed, and at the same
time many Of them prefer to see the democratic vote turn
out the largest This class Of voters though perhaps not
very numerous, will quietly cast their weight so as TO
make it felt on the result.
have dwelt on the Know Nothing vote simply because
for at least il is the key to the canvass and no man
who will see things they will close his eyes to the
hlE The conclusion to which have thus arrived has
been after somewhat extensive and an altogether un
and aftersa look nj the hands around the board For
the Know Nothngs Gin spite Of themselves may be
and it is difficult to say how in so short time they
going fool them away. lam aware that some republican
leaders place the Know Nothing vote as low 10 900
II 200 But this is delusion have seen careful can
vass by ,untes based in good degree on the most
liable ntormatonas reliable as either Of the other par
ties can have concerning their strengtwhch seems
to place 80 900 the lowest figure to which the Know
Nothing vote possibly fall II is much more likely to
be above than below. The estimate OF small Know No
thing vote has predcated in good degree, on the
expectation that their ballots would not be thoroughly dis
trbuted in the several counties think know that such
expectation il wholly groundess and that the contingency
of lack of ballots has already been guarded against,
thorough distribution having taken place. II y un-
and Union republicans Of several of the other
States take deep interest In tho success OF the
Utica ticket clearing the way for union OF the OPP
position in tho Presidential field. This, indeed IS the
chief thing that has been brought to bear 70 give the
Know Notbngs here life and motive and has changed the
state Of things so far as they are concerned within the
last days. They animated wholly by the Presdcn
tal aspects OF the canvass and as they pave come to
comprehend that they do hold the balance &C power aud
that its ia this at this time makes them power
and once Of consequence their and strength
have grown. And here will say that the recent prescn
Of the subject by the HERALD in strong light has
had considerable effect in developing the state OF the
canvass have described cannot therefore, see how,
as the case now stands, the result is to be changed,
without it is through the sudden diversion, by an
arrangement among the leaders leaders %. Of enough OF
the democrats. Things as strange as this have
before occurred in State politics. and such thing
consider not all improbable. Now, the of the
Utica ticket would be direct personal defeat Of and
preliminary verdict against Mr. Seward and the Weed
Regency: loud declaration and proof in advance that
Mr. Seward carry New York. while the Of
the democrats could be treated as being only general
result not at all affecting Mr. Seward to be viewed in
tho Presidential aspects To Mr. Weed, as the guardian
of Mr. Stewards interests the question, as he must
see IT, brought home whether s better for the Utica
r democratic ticket to succeed republican success being
out Of the question The republican managers must
discover that they are to be beaten The only question for
shem to decide is by whom shall II beP
A Better Plan for the Defence OF Arsenals