The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1859-04-30

Five, placing no faith IL the friendship of thoae
whose interests do not accord with our own, and
to lose no opportunity Of irjuring them without
ostensihly br, 0king our treaties with them
This is the policy that guides the moyemenig Of
both Emperors against Austria, and which irsti-
gated the now proposed Congress to settle the
Italian question. The scheme Is trap for Aus
tria, and she VIII not 90 into 1t. She prefers
war as the only refuge from the destiny foretold
for her by her own Metternich, using the words
of Louis XIy-"After me the deluge' The
deluge is approaching for Austria, and then
perhaps we may see what the Russo French
alliance has in store for England and Turkey,
unless, indeed, as is more probable, revolution
stops the mad career Of the despots.
"Ihe Good Time Co,ning--What VIII Pre-
vent a NcvalsioRs
Everything around is indicative of prosperity,
of immense operations in trade, and of 'a good
time coming" Even the "freedom-s hriekers"
chime in with the general jubilaton over present
plenty and bright prospects before us Having
lost bleeding Kansas" as an issue, they are
laboring to find something in its stead, and they
seize with avidity upon the prosperous condition
of the country as pretext for the revival Of an
old issue-long since dead and gone-a protec-
tive tariff, to save us from another revulsion like
that which followed the immense expansion Of
1856 and 1S57-the ebb of adversely which,
succeeding to the flowing tide Of prosperity, left
SO many Of our merchants high and dry upon the
strand. But the idea of tariff, high or low,
causing or preventing revulsion, is preposterous
in the extreme. Prosperity and revulsion, ex-
pansion and contraction, move in cycles by laws
Us fixed and certain as those by which the
heavenly spheres move in their orbits; and in
every country they return periodically as day
and night, heat and cold, winter and summer,
spring and fall, the neap and high tides, the
growing and the full, the waning and the new
moons. The evil day may be delayed, and it
may be mitigated when it comes; but that is
about all that human power and human legisla-
ton can accomplish. That high or low tariff
has no effect on the rise Or fall of the business
barometer-no influence on the fluctuations Of
trade--is evident from the fact that under the
same tariff the greatest imitation and the greatest
collapse, the greatest expansion and the greatest
depression, have taken place in recent years A
tariff, therefore, has nothing to do with these
results.
The recuperation of business is complete.
The increase within the last few months is i'm
mense. The spring trade is in full blast, and all
goes merry as marriage bell. But the expan-
sion is not yet at the unhealthy point. The i'm
ports, il is true, largely exceed the exports for
the present. condition which would undoubted-
ly be ruinous if it were to continue. But it will
not continue, and the equilibrium win soon be
restored The present excess of imports over
exports is easily explained. From the time of
the panic in 1857, the majority Of consumers
were compelled to live economically they either
bought less goods than before, or ceased to buy
at all, wearing out all their old clothes till now
they havescarcely shred left. Everybody wants
new clothes. With the return of business, there
fore, not only is the former demand for dry goods
equalled, but eXceeded-the wants are really
greater now than before. Then, the mannfactur-
ers and wholesale houses know this very well,
and in their excessive competition they flood the
market beyond the demand. Goods are sent
hero speculation by English houses which
were never ordered, and these are included in
the imports, and contribute to swell up the ag-
gregate. Yet the amount is by no means what it
was in lS57-then IL was $3.50, 100000. For 1859
it is estimated at about s2s0,0OO,OOO. Next year
the demand will probably be diminished, large
quantities of the goods on hand will remain un-
sold, and importation will be checked Thus the
excess will work its own cure without any sensi
BILE revulsion.
But we are reminded that the city banks are now
expanded in an extraordinary degree. That is
quite true. Their expansion is greater appa.
ren,ly than Immediately before the panic in
1867. But it is only in appearance. The
expansion Of New York banks at this period in
1857 was $113,39l, &c. and in August it ran up
to 1922 100000. Their loans at present amount
to nearly $lSo,O00,O00. But the money lent by
the banks to our government for temporary pur-
poses, amounting to from eighteen to twenty
millions Of dollars, to supply the deficiency in
the revenues, which fell of in consequence Of the
depression in business, must be taken into the
sion is reduced to the normal condition. aud the
banks are In as healthy state as can be expect
ed in country where the credit system so large
y prevails. The government security is as
good to the banks as gold. The increase of bust
pess filing the Treasury, and Mr.. Buchanan will
perhaps leave it as full as he found it.
The Treasury notes will therefore be redeemed
as the imports increase, and the money lent to
the government will thus be thrown back into
the vaults Of the banks. Aud here is the danger
Already they know not what to do with the
specie they have Last week, as appears from
our report in Tuesdays paper, the increase in the
specie OF our city banks amounted to 100000,
and the deposits increased by $S7S while their
loans only increased $4,000. The exchanges
at the Clearing House were the largest since
August, 1857 amounting to nearly s29 900, 600