The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1858-06-11

FALL TRADE PRosPECrs.-It is now time to
form some sort of judgment with regard to the
prospects of the coming fall trade. Five months
Of sae year nave passed, and the public have
their wcsk-in the shape Of commercial stats.
tics-before them. The bank statements and
the rates of exchange have been long enough
uniform to justify calculation for the future.
People know what has been and what is; q
very little reflection will show what is coming
at least during the next few months.
1t is certain that during the past five months
the reduction in imports, as compared with the
corresponding period of last year. is equal to
Bot less than eighty millions Of dollars. The
decline at this port alone is $54,000,0o0; and
other ports have. declined in still greater
ratio. 1t may be said, then, that the country
contains, at the present moment, eighty mil
lions lees foreign goods than it did in June,
1857.
The means of the nation are not less. Though
breadssu1s are not commanding as high figures
as they did some time ago, the quantity pro-
duced this year will be larger SO of the other
staples. Cotton, Notwithstanding the decline,
will be yielded so largely by the South that the
net product Of the crop will be probably more
in dollars than that Of last year. Farm produce
and other articles Of export are plentiful, and
are not likely as q rule to sell at unremunera-
tive prices. The capacity of the ople, as an
aggregate, to buy foreign produce, is greater
than it ever was before.
The decline that has taken place in the ex.
ports Of the nation since May is almost wholly
confined to the specie line OF every thing else
there has been exported the usual quantity.
But the specie, OF which the usual amounts
have been regularly received from California,
has been retained here: whence it follows that
the banks Of New York, Boston, Philadelphia
and New Orleans contain considerably more
than twice their usual share. The Sub Treasury
is bare, it is true; but the banks are full
Thus while continued and profase production
are calculated to enable the farmer to buy at
least as much as usual, double the usual guam
tity Of means in the bank Golfers affords q safe
basis for double the old amount of mercantile
business at the great mercantile centres.
Again: we have by this time thoroughly ex-
perienced the wholesome effects Of the crisis.
All unproductive enterprises have been stop
ped. No new railways are being constructed.
No money is being laid out for the benefit of
future generations. No mercantile houses are
carrying on ruinous and dishonest trade; for
the houses in this line have just been swept
away. The whole commercial and financial
world is in the most wholesome condition, with
but few engagements, with little business, with
plenty Of caution, and clean books.
1t was the opinion of many that, when the
specie began to increase in the banks above
twenty millions, trade would suddenly start up,
and by March that everything would be under
full sail as before. This expectation proved err
roneous; it mado no allowance for the chas.
tening effect of the crisis, or for the retrench-
ment which people were practising. Our re-
coyery has taken fully seven months; quite
long enough, considering the amount of actual
damage done by the reyulsion, to be considered
slow and gradual.
On the whole, then, considering the want Of
goods which must exist at present in the coun-
try, the means Of the farmers and country
storekeepers, the ample facilities for trade af-
forded BY the condition of the banks at the
financial centres, and the healthy and sound
condition of the mercantile community through
out the country there seems every reason TO
suppose that the fall business will not only be
large but will be one of the largest that has
ever been known.