The daily exchange. [volume] (Baltimore, Md.) 1858-1861, 1858-03-03

figure than 100000 bales, which is diminution
from last years receipt of 10000 bales. On these
data we estimate the supply from the United States
at $500, 900
East Indies 1000
Brazil, Egypt &C. 300, 900
100000
PROBABLE CONSUMPTION IN 1858.
The consumption of Cotton differs from its pro-
duction in being influenced solely by moral and not
physical causes, such rosts, floods, drought, &C.
These do not affect the demand, but war, revolution
and financial changes increase diminish it accord
ing to the duration and intensity of their operation
There is this remarkable difference the produc-
ton and consumption respectively. A failure in the
supply from natural causes, seldom affects it more
than from hive to ten per cent. in season. 1t
mas required two successive short crops to reduce
the product II per cent. from the yield of lS556-
But the reduction of demand from financial crcum-
stances exclusively within the short period of two
months from the middle of October to the middle of
December was, in Great Britain, 80 per cent, the
price falling in higher proportion, and in the
United States upwards of so per cent.
The wars in the East will have limited and per-
maps temporary influence the demand but the
monetary reyulsion which has swept like a whirl-
wind over Europe and the United States will have
consequences OF more general and permanent
character. The limitation and curtailment of cred
1t, and the consequent dminution of purchasing
power In the great body of consumers of Cotton
goods must affect the demand for the raw material
TO an extent that viii most materially influence its
value. Any estimate to consumption and pl ices
in Europe during the present year. must necessari-
~ De conIcctural In higher degree than in periods
IN Whlch there are fewer changes in the value of
money. These changes constitute more than ever
disturbing element. In few weeks prices fell
with rapidity that has rarely marked any previ-
Gus alteration in relation of demand and supply
and these alterations have not vet worked ont ali
their full consequences.
Independently, however, Of any general causes
which may influence prices, oscllating above or
below certain point, which must be assumed as
that to which they will constantly gravitate the
great object of present anxiety is to know at what
standard they will finally settle and adjust them
selves We must in the absence of any but con
jectura data, look to probabilities when these tran
STORY circumstances have spent their force To
what do probabilities lead, then as relates to the
consumption? The undue stimulus being measure
bly, withdrawn, which was found in excessive credit,
we are bound to bring the consumption within mar
row limits, not losing sight of the causes which
impaired to it an unusual impulse. These were
1ree trade, cheap money, inventive power and ex-
tended intercourse. These will continue to
operate, but modified by circumstances, such as
high price of the raw material, diminished demand
for goods and yarn, &C. The motive to produce as
we'll as the ability to consume will receive serious
check, at least for the present year. We must be
influenced in our calculations by views of moderate
Improvement and gradual amelioration.
At what point then shall we fix estimate of
the consumption, which will be representative on
probable grounds Opinions vary here much more
considerably than relates to the supply Should
the crop of the United States of the present year.
DaleS, ana not De ulSpr0p0rtOn-
atey pressed on the market, it is reasonable
clude that the average price in Europe would be
equivalent to Cd. in England for Middling Upland.
as that standard of value which would not unduly
stimulate or check consumption This is, however,
matter of conjectura inference, well as the ex-
tent OF consumption Opinions differ regards
the British consumption from 100000 to 200 900
bales. We presume that it will range between 3d.
O0O to 900 bales weekly. 1t appears not material
whether the highest or lowest figure is adopted, in
view OF the large of the supply the
sumption. We will, for the moment, assume the
consumption in Great Britain to be $4,000 bales
weekly, or for the year, say
1900, 900 bales
The consumption on the continent of
Europe will not suffer so large
proportional diminution. In Ger
many, although there was a great
er prostration of commercial con-
hdence than in any ether part of
Europe, in the latter portion of
1s47, still, owing to the great in
crease OF manufacturing power in
that country, consumption will be
better sustained than in Great Bri-
tain the United States. In
France, the diminution will be
comparatively limited. We have
deducted from the consumption of
the Continent, therefore, about Is
per Ct from the average of the
m, last three years, $4,000 bales
The consumption of the United States
will have been reduced much more
than IN any other part of the world
where Cotton is extensively con-
sumed. 1t is estimated at nearly
two-thirds less than last year.
There has been large destruction
OF manufacturing capital and gen.
era closing of factories. The ex-
ports to the northern ports have
fallen short of those of last year to
the time, 800, $50 bales, six
months OF the season having elaps-
ed. For these the con
sumption of the United States can
not be supposed to exceed 100000 bales
Making the total consumption 3O5O,O0O bales
Comparing with these data the entire
supply with the total consumption
for 1858, assuming the stock in Eur
ope to have been 625 900 on the first
of January, 1858, lin Great Britain
452 000and on the Continent IL, 500,
the following would appear to be
the result as the probable excess of
the supply beyond the consumption
on the 3lst December, 1858. Stock
, IN Europe January l, 1855 $4,000 bales
Supply from the United States 2.90O,O0O g
" East Indies 700 600 {.
:" Brazil, Egypt &c. 100000
Total Supply 4,525,O0O
British Consumption 900, 900 bales
Continent OF Europe $4,000 %
United States 100000 % 1850 900 bales
Excess of supply beyond consump-
tl0n 1,475000 90
So that, if the consumption should be increased
from one to two hundred thousand bales and the
supply lessened in the RATIO the margin of
excess is sufficiently ample to any increase ON
the one side or dimnuton on the other, or both
combined, that can be supposed.
Tables of the consumption and supply for the last
thirty years, embracing average periods of five |
years, show that for years, between 1928 and
1878, there was increased rate of consumption
OF between | and ? per cent, while in the sub
sSeqnent period of ten years the consumption |
diminished from three-eighths to four per cent, |
the rate of increase being nearly the same for the
last as compared with the first nariod