The Ottawa free trader. [volume] (Ottawa, Ill.) 1843-1916, 1857-07-04
The Grain Observation-Disclosures.

The Grain Trade---Crops--Pro
There is no subject on which we should
venture an opinion with more diffidence,
than in reference to the probable state OF the
grain market for a month or day hence
The market is subject to SO many influences,
aside from the plain matter OF supply ana
demand, that if we could have accurately al
hand the precise figures Of the one and the
other, no sac prediction still could be made
as to the probably ruling prices. To-day,
taking the market speculations Of the New
York and Chicago papers, and Geographic
dispatches as a criterion, we should say
grain, and particularly corn, threatens to 60
downward; tomorrow, likely as not. We
should conclude, taking the same reliable
sources Of information IS q guide, the
chances would look favorable for q rise
The crops all over the country, to-day, are
said to look favorable for heavy yield-er-
20, corn, &C., must come down. But is this
SO? In this vicinity, and throughout North
ern Illinois, and the same may be said OF the
entire northwest, corn unquestionably has
"set" well. But everywhere it is late-at
least month behind last year. Very little,
if any corn in Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio,
Northern Indiana, Illinois, New York, or
Northern Pennsylvania will mature-or be
out Of the reach Of frost, before the LIST of
October. Now, with what certainty can any
one calculate on escaping frost to that late
period? There is certainly not more than
one year in half dozen that We do not, as
far north as La Sale county, have heavy
frosts before the first Of October. The sum-
mer thus far has been unusually cold. To-
day, the Sd of July, we find wooden clothes
not only comfortable, but essential, and this
morning hot stove was anything but disa-
creeable. Cold summers invariably bring
early frosts, say our weather prophets
These "signs," so ominous Of failure OF
the destruction Of the growing crop Of corn,
are regarded as so "sure" by our leading
farmers, that we know TO our certain know
ledge that a number of them have deter
mined to keep back the larger portion OF
their last years crop until late in the season.
But many influences, besides the pros
poets of the growing crop, as we said be-
fore, often affect present prices Simulta-
neou>ly with slight decline in New York,
the foreign steamer reports in Liverpool
"corn buoyant"-" wheat buoyant," &C.
Then the decline is greater in Chicago than
in Nav York, and what may account for
this, We have Z statement like the following
in the commercial article OF the Democrat on
Wednesday:
Since our last weekly review the feature
Of most particular moment which has trans
pred, in reference 10 the general trade of
the city, is the failure Of large number Of
small and some heavy grain dealers to meet
their contracts at maturity. \ very unwise
and unsafe course appears to have been
taken in trade by some half dozen corn deal
ers, who, surprising that the amount of corn
in the whole country was a large as usual
in proportion to the demand and increase of
trade. and that the price would fall to its
usu i minimum, sold very much more than
they had possessed themselves Of As n ma
tural consequence, when the time for dciive-
~ came the sc short sellers, known IN COM
merci Il circles as the bear party, came up
minus the corn, land as many Of them were
not men of great means minus the cash to
nav for their forfeiture of contract. Some
of them are utterly bankrupt themselves in
consequence Of this action, besides injuring
their friends End their reputation as business
men.
So the Chicago market has been affected,
not exactly OH account Of the supply or
scarcity Of money, OF the supply or demand
of grain, but by the discontinue OF the
"bear party" What does that mean? Eve
~ intelligent reader knows what is meant
by the bears and bulls" in Wall ST., New
York They are gamblers in stocks. The
bulls labor to run up stocks, and the bears
to pull them down. A bear agrees June 4th
to deliver $50, 900 Erie on the 18th Of July
to a bull at Co. Until the date arrives he is
resorting TO every trick to run the stock
down below that figure. If on the 4th of
July, Erie is worth less than SO, the bull
pays bear the Observation-Disclosures, bear
pays bull the difference. Neither party has
at any time owned or meant to buy or deli
yer a dollars worth Of stock. 1t is mere
bet on the price of certain stock on that
day.
Now of late years this kind of gambling
has been extended to breadstufis, and with
in year or two the gamblers have got into
Chicago. Thus. in that market, the Press
informs US:
Immense transactions take place where it
is neither expected nor desired that deliver
les shall be made-the whole thing being
managed by the payment OF differences y
sells 100, 900 bushels, more or less. OF corn
or wheat to B.. to be delivered at some fu-
ture time specified in the contract. A does
not owr O solitary bushel Of the commodity
which he purports to sell in such large
quantities, nor does he expect to become the
owner of any at any future time 1t the ar
ticle should be higher in the market when
the contract natures, he pays TO Il the dit
ference between its market value and the
price agreed upon-ii lower, u pays the diff
ference TO A.
II will be seen at once that sellers on time
are deeply interested in keeping the market
price down to lower figure than that of
their contract, while buyers are equally IN
terested in putting it above. And here the
war commences. All the appliances avail
able 10 the two classes are at once resorted
TO 10 effect the desired object. One party
under estimates the foreign demand, over
estimates the surplus in the country, and
goes beyond what fats will warrant as I"
the promise Of the growing crop. The other
party. equally active, and with mere sue
cess. flor il is easier to create panic on an
assumed scarcity than on an asserted sur
plus products of the country) magnifies the
foreign demand, asserts the strong proba-
bility Of home scarcity, and predicts all
kinds of disasters TO the growing crop. Con-
tracts covering, in the aggregate, millions OF