The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1857-12-29


gether out of existence.
The Commercial Prospect for tAe Year.
The stockgamblers, spectators AID bank
rupts as well in the United States As in Europe
are once more "a furious with the HERALD for
publishing the truth about the ststc Of com
mercial affairs as they were in the days when
we predicted the revulsion, and they, for the
best Of reasons, insisted that no such thing was
possible We persevered in our course then in
spite of the censure Of our neighbors; we can
hardly be expected not to do SO now, when they
have so much less interest in the matter They
will consult their own welfare best by studying
not abusing the HERALD.
In this view, we recommend to their atten-
ton the speech of the Hon. Mr.. Disraeli, which
we published on Sunday and which is the ablest
of all the speeches on the subject pronounced
in the British Parliament. Ideas which
have been more than once put forward
in these columns-that the revulsion flowed
simply from the over-speculation based on
the production of gold; that the banks
had no more to do with it than the mer-
chants, both being equally culpsble Of over
trading; that no remedy in the shape of lcgsla-
ton is feasible-are urged by him with very
remarkable power and felicity. 1t isapparent
that he has made q thorough study Of the sub
jeet, not only in its European but in iss Ameyi-
can phase also.
He sets down the failures in England at $225y-
00e,00G, up to 18th December; very considera-
bly, more than the aggregate amount Of the fail
uresin 1877, 1887, and 1925. We presume that
il weuld be fair to add at least as much more
for failures en- the continent, and to say $780,
a whole; not including some 100000, OOo'in-
volved in failures in this country. These
figures which of course are rough approxiraa-
TONS may serve as guide to the merchant and
the legislator. They would perhaps be more
accurate if the merchants who failed here were
all to publish statement Of their affairs as IL
done in England
Disraeli, rightly ascribi1g the revulsion to
the undue expansion of CT edit, seems to see,
though he does not mention in precise
terms, the only possible cUse-general
Liquidation Just at the moment when
one expects him to points out the neces-
sity Of general conversion of property and
liquidation of debts, he enters into an elabo-
rate discussion Of the duties and obligations of
the Bank of England. In realty, the Bank of
England is oS very Osaall consequence in this
matter; the roint to which mems eyes now re-
auire to be directed il that the only way out of
the revulsion,--in this country as in England
hyI sr,,sI aAr hall darr hoar
insisted upon, ere long, in the British Parlia-
ment. In this county, it is now, pretty gene
rally understood.
The understanding thereof furnishes the key
10 the commercial prospects of Tire yer. We
business in 1858, with two classes of
houses; yours houses, which have Just started,
Dr. houses whch,were Too obscure to be serious
y involved in the revision; and old and large
houses which, being deeply involved, ere now
tc liquidate, and get free. The clear
and obvious prospect Of these two classes of
houses is dramatically opposite. The young
houses, with no membranes to weigh them
down, and no troubles to embarrass- them, go
into the market at time when propersy and
merchandise are depressed, and are able to buy
we'll; their means are naturally small, and they
are cautious the banks are more dispoeed to
help them than older and more uncertain firms;
they are in a position to rise with the gene
raj recovery, and to avail themselves
Of the whole rebound that must pro-
ceed from the recuperative energies of
the country. In word, their prospects are
good. With caution and energy, they have
fair opportunity. On the other hand, the pros
pect of the old and embarrassed houses is very
1t is not reasonable to sup
pose that property and merchandise will be in
any hurry to recover from the depreciation
which hes commenced. On the contrary, 1t IL
natural That that depreciation should continue.
A fall il one large class of merchandise involves
falls in, Others just as one failure leads to
others. Thus one set OF assets is seriously dmin-
ished. Nor is that other set OF assets-debts
due in the country-likely to prove more
available From oil that We can learn, the
country merchants are not, as y rule, offering
to pay as much o. fifty cents on the dollar.
Proposals for extensions for one, two and three.
years are quite common. Altogether the pros
pect is very poor for the collection of country
debts; and between this, and the depreciation
of property, the old houses which have been
deeply involved in the revulsion are likely to
lind II very difficult business indeed to effect a
general liquidation.
As the year progresses, the gulf between shese
Two classes Ut merchants viii be broadly de-
fined; the two will appea, in striking contrast
until, aztec u greater or less period Of struggle
the older and more embarrassed houses give up
the contest and disappear altogether. Until
that takes place we must expect to hear the cry
of hard hines pretty generally and loudly ut
tered. For while ths young and rising houses
will parsue their course in peace and quiet,
making no noise and no show, the older houses
will all the air with their complaints, and the
report of their failures, as they go down one by