New Orleans daily crescent. [volume] ([New Orleans, La.]) 1851-1866, 1856-02-15
a-l N=a 'o-arE
Lycernl Lectures.

Dr. B. A. Gould, of Cambridge, Mass, delivered
the Introductory lecture of the series, at Lyceum Hail.
last evening, to large and appreciative audience.
His subject was The Theory of Probabilities y and
we regret our inability to give than skeleton
of the discourse. Commencing with the announce |
ment of the evenings address, he stated that in the
two succeeding lectures he should treat Of the relation
astronomy bears to other sciences, and its past his
tory and of the advance of astronomy in the last
century.
The theory of probabilities is both intellectual and
mathematical, while Others occupy only single posi-
ton and is needfu for political and exact philoso-
ply. In its nature it is definite and typical of pure
mathematics, both in cause and result. In vulgar
usage chance is the phrase standing instead OF this
theory but there is no such thing as chance: all
things are foreordained and work by rule in accord
ance with law Therefore the theory of probabilities
is science 1t is our ignorance that turns facts into
mere probabilities; education clears away the
"chance" and leaves behind a science.
If we could know things by their causes, however,
even this science would be exact and scientific.
When we speak of certainty we only mean very
high degree of probability and yet few see the con-
necton subsisting between them The difference is
abundantly exemplified. The barbarian speaks of
the SUMS rising tomorrow, only because he never
knew it not to rise the scholar speaks of it because
| he knows the laws that render its rising certain
Mathematical progression was advanced as showing
more clearly this point and the noble act of thmble
rigging in which because the little jokerf has been
found for certain number of times to turn up under
certain thimbe, the ignorant expect it will continue
to do so constantly Certainty is-what all things
to all men. Moral certainty is no certainty whatever
Mathematical certainty is the only one that is really
certainty The growth of Washington's name in the
garden beds, when sowed by him, was an illustration
gernane to the point Certainty admits of no doubt
whatever. Probability is where there is preponder
ance of chances upon one side wherefore the proba-
bilty of thing happening are greater or less to us,
in accordance with knowledge. The difference
between subjective and objective probabilities well
exemplied in the purchase Of lottery ticket when
there is probability of gaining prize, to very
many improbabilities. The idea of chance is result
of ignorance. Actually there are but two things-the
is and the is not known only to omniscience but
: man has made step towards distinguishing between
them by the theory of probabilities.
Lapace was the great expounder of this theory
which moraiss and Neutrality-suspicious. have been puzzled
to define. A named Banks, of Bishopsgate
street, London ran express with news of the fight
of Waterloo and made n fortune by it. Who calls
this gambling? There are insurance companies or
lfe buildings, ETC., taking the probabilities of theil
not being burned. But they proceed upon theory
formed from facts, and cannot be termed gambling
When we have grounds for general opinion, ever
though not exact it is knowledge and not gambling
which is without knowledge. In the game of head:
and tails, the probabilities are that each will come W
fifty times in one hundred but there is knowledge
to that effect. Insurance offices go upon the laws
? Jn,r
tic gambling booths. Life insurance is no risk, but
certainty, derived from knowledge and calculation
of probabilities. This was shown by recapitulatiol
of the assurances and losses of Boston Insurance Com
panies for IA years. The probabilities of life too
regulated by rules. The census reports, it was re
Marked could be better made by the theory of prob
Abilities than by actual taking down.
The probabilities of marriage considered, in
pleasantly ludicrous manner, showing that all singh
people had chance Of matrimony left even if as oil
as Joice Heth. The number of dead letters in TIL
Post-0fficc, number of DEATHS etc. all prove q lay
where none is known to exist and kind of reguarit
+ even in rregllarity.
l. The nebuar hypothesis of Tycho Brahe and Il
n Vener were noticed in their bearings upon the sui
ject also the speed of cames and weight of planets
d ascertained by the means of probability. By thi
in means, Prof. Bache fixed his tidal theory. BY thi
~ MEANS the of business having surveyed the el
of operations, governs and regulates his conduct
loses once or twice, but gains majority of times
q makes fortune Babages, suggestions and phlose
phy are accordant with this theory proven by hi
s. own words
he Remarlng that the highest forms of the theory
= yet untouched-its application tomoral theory, etc.
the lecturer closed his very clear, compact and col
densed discourse which repeatedly appl auded
he those who listened to it.
o. Our skeleton is necessarily imperfect, but contain
general outline of the address, and should be su
cient to induce all who can to attend its successors.