New-York daily tribune., 1855-08-29
THE GuEss-WORK CENSUS.

The Ut ESS-
We published some days since what purpOrted
to be the result of the recent Census go far as the
number of inhabitants in the various Wards In this
City 1t is unfortunate for the cred! Of statistics
generally that these returns are manifestly ncor
rect that 80 far from being exact record of the
number Of persons in the city, it is so wide of the
truth that we look with some confidence for the
discovery Of important errors in adding up or
transcribing the figures.
BY this Census the City is allowed population
Of 624 I79, which is an increase of los, 64 since
1880 This is growth of a very little more than
u per cent in five years, or less than four and
quarter per cent per annum. But the truth is that
within ten years five new Wards have been added
in that part of the City above Fourteenth-street
This section is now said to have population of
2Oa 600, against 1130e0 in 1850. Here is an in-
crease of "a per cent for the five years. The
same territory in l545 had population of $4,000,
showing an increase from AS to so of 10000,
which is equal to 1l3 per cent. Now, whatever
figures may show it is we'll known TO all who have
visited the upper Wards that the extension of the
City there has been almost miraculous Hills
have disappeared, valleys are filled up, pasture
lands have given place to parks dozens OF streets
have been opened or extended, railroads and stage
lines cross and recross what were three years ago
desert places, and block after block of large and
valuable tenements have risen like magic. Stimu-
lated by the real estate speculstions of 1883,
the upper portion of the leland was all alive with
builders, and is now so changed from its appear
anoe in 1e45 that even citizens look upon the
metamorpbosis as more like dream.w0rk than
reality. 1t has been estimated by good judges that
this part of the City has gained in population
about 100000 within the five years; yet the
Census allows but 90 900. The idea that pOpula-
ton here has not increased so fast since 1850 as
it did during the preceding five years is not tenabe.
A comparison of the election ballots cast at diff
ferent periods would show similar results but the
aggregate vote is somewhat irregular For in-
stance in 1853 there we're only $4,000 votes cast,
while in 1852 there were $1,000, and in 1851,
6O,OOO The valuation Of property, though not
perfect basis of estimate, will also throw some
light upon the progress of the City in numbers.
In 1850 the gross taxable valuation was 1885,
0,OcO in 1855, $is7 100000; increase in five
wears. S2O1 900, 0OO-equal to 20 per cent for the
FIVE years-while the ratio of taxation has in
creased even still greater. That the taxable prop
erty should increase at the rate Of IA per cent
year, and the population only per cent is pO-
sitiop of figures rather difficult to reconcile.
The growth Of schools, one Of the glories of
the City, is another argument against this Cea-
sue. The number of children taught in the five
years preceding 1850 was 433, 900, or an average
of $4,000 year. In the five years preceding
1855, there were taught 100000, or 10000
year-an increase Of nearly 40 per cent In the
course of some very careful estimates connected
with their charge, the Board of Education in
their last report set down the population of the
City for this year at ESQ, ,l95, which is very
low estimate.
We have, however, one other test to apply to
this guess. work census, and one which Is infall-
bic, and no. TO be dsputed-we mean the Bills
of Mortality 1t is hardly necessary to state
that the ratio of mortality in any community
taken for periods of FIVE or ten year,, shows a
very limited range, varying not more than three
or four per cent, and when excluding epidemics
scarcely so much. Now the ratio of deaths in
this City, based upon recent enumerations, was,
in 1926, ore death to al inhabitants; in 1910,
one TO 40; in 1e45, one TO 80; in 1850 (including
the cholera of lsi9), one to 334. The average
Of these proportions is one death for every %
citizens. Promising that tie last year Except
slight touch of cholera) was one Of ordinary
good health, and the present one remarkably 80,
We apply tie test 10 the Census return under
consideration, and find that the number of
deaths must have been one to every 234 inhab
itants If this were true, we might we'll be
alarmed at such frie htf0l destructon-a ratio Of
mortality seldom exceeded by the most fearful
scourging Of fever or cholera. 1t needs but
this single application Of the return OF
deaths to show that the figures OF the
Census Cannot be trusted, and that from
hundred and fifty 10 I wo hundred thousand resi-
dents have been omitted in making up the
return. On the basis Of the mortality of 1850,
the most unfavorable one since 1905 We should
have this year a population Of 100000, while
on the average Of the last three census periods
il would be about q hundred thousand mora.
The cholera in 1854 vould slightly modify these
ccmpsri,on'. but not to any great eKteat. Tas