The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1853-12-01
European Prospects.

coming so imminent that speculation on its re-
suits assumes an immediate interest and prac-
teal character. 1t is certain that Europe has
seen in her past history. no war that can be
taken as type of the one which may break ont
il the year 1854. Neither in respect of the in
terests involved, nor of the aims sought by the
contending parties, can we find any period in
the past which comedies with the present era.
This is at once apparent from glance at the
policy Of the various Powers who may be en-
gagged in the struggle. Russia desires the con-
quest of Turkey; territorial expansion is the
Cars object. Louis Napoleon looks to the re-
alization OF his uncles ambitious schemes he
sees in general war opportunities Of once
more carrying the French frontier across
the Rhine and if he takes leading part
it will be with this view. Great Britain's
sole desire is the preservation Of the statu
quo. She has no notion Of adding fresh bur-
thens to the load of debt under which she now
staggers. On the contrary, her interests de-
mand peace policy if possible in order that
her vast commerce shall be undisturbed. If
she seeks anything beyond this, it can only be
the possession of the route to India and the
addition of Gambia to Corfu and Malta Turkey
obviously demands nothing beyond the preser-
walton of her dominions. Harrassed on the one
side by the disafection of her Asiatic subjects,
and invaded on the other by Russia, she would,
so soon as the first fire of indignation has
passed, be very glad to escape from the melee
on any terms, provided her dominions were left
undiminished. Finally, the popular element in
Europe, which must be regarded as separate
and distinct power Of itself, independent of and
hostile to all the reigning dynasties hopes for
some general convulsion, in which it may seize
an opportunity of putting forward its peculiar
claims, and asserting its rights in opposition to
the established despotisms.
Such being the elements out Of which the
combatants in any coming struggle will be
composed and such their various designs and
aspirations. it is interesting to weigh the
chances of each, and to inquire which out of
the number will be successful in gaining its
ends, and which will be compelled 10y others
10 relinquish its hopes. AT this early period
If is hardly possible to predicate anything with
certainty. The fortunes of war may give
strength to the weakest, and impose forbearance
on the strong To say, where there is anything
like show Of equality between the combatants,
that success is sure to attend one side or the
other, is TO court a refutation by events There
are, however, some results now expected which
may safely be regarded as less probable than
others; among those which are least likely to
occur is in our opinion, the accomplishment Of
democratic revolution We think that out Of
the whole number the popular party among the
masses Of Europe is the least assured Of gaining
its ends.
Every reason in fact. tends to show that the
leaders who tailed so ingloriously in ls4s have
still more scanty prospects of success just now.
Then there was chance for the Louis Blancs.
the Kossuths, the Mazzinis: thrones were tot
tering, kings were abdicating: the masses were
intoxicated with the magnitude and moment Of
the commissions that were shaking Europe. A
single eagle eye might have seized the right
moment for action-a single hand of iron might
then possibly have laid the foundation of a
solid European republic. Now, on the contrary
the chances Of the European democracy are in
fnitely slender. All the established govern
ments are strong They have large standing
armies, ready equipped for active service. The
bulk Of that large category Of Europeans who
love revolution for the excitement Of the
thing, and the hopes Of plumber in the melee.
now find sufficient food for their restlessness
and their lawless propensities in the prospect of
foreign wars. The middle and moneyed classes
are directly opposed 10 any revolution
airy movement and, above all. France which
has always been the cradle Of revolutions in
Europe. must now be ranked among the une.
quivocal foes OF the Kossuth and Mazzini party
France is entirely in the hands Of one man
and that mans greatest claim to glory is the
skill and tact with which he has managed the
masses. Those whom no popular leader could
rule for month he has curbed with his iron
will, and now leads them like sheep. lie made
them raise bin to the Empire and while be
riveted on their necks the most thorough des-
potism this age has seen, lie actually persuaded
them that he was the democratic representa-
tive Of democratic people. At this moment
the masses in Paris call him the democratic
Emperor Sc long as they do so-and Louis
Napoleon Is not likely to suffer any change in
This respect-the French cannot be expected to
contribute any forces 70 the revolutionary
army.
Looking. in fact at the prospect Of general
commissions in Europe-at the isolated position
and pacific designs Of Great BIitain-it seeus
beyond doubt that the one thought now up
pcrmost in Louis Napoleon's mind must be tle
realization Of bis uncle's schemes These were
Effected, almost IN every instance, Ivy selling the
popular aspirations for liberty as handle, and
afterwards converting Intervention into con-
quest Napoleon the Great always encouraged
popular movements in bis own country until he
had conquered haH Europe. Should the Turk
ish war spread To Central and Western Europe