Weekly national intelligencer. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1841-1869, 1853-11-05
sPEcULATIoNs ON THE PROSPECT OF WAR.
FROM THE LONDON TIMES or OCTOBER IL.


FROM THE LONDON TIMES or OCTOBER IT,
Inc chances Of peace in Eastern Europe appear
oao'ate with almost equable variation from day to
uay out may be said think that there is more Of
reality on the former side than on the latter and though
one can venture beyond speculation the course OF
events we are still disposed rely with some confidence
on favorable conclusion. For the prospects Of war Il
may be stated that declaration Of hoslitiss has nov
been actually made subject only condition which Is
not hKey 10 De wanting Prince Gortschakof has been
summoned to eyacuate the Principates and has been
appraised in the of the Sultan that in the case ~
refusal or of delay beyond the space Of fifteen DAYS wa
must positively ensue. His obedience to this summons
would involve such unconditional surrender of all fo
which the Car has been auGacousy eonendine that 4
cannot be reasonably anticipated and hostiites there
FORE between Russia and Turkey must be expected 10
commence according TO this calculation by the 9th Of
the present month Such inference to leave lit
tie for hopes of different result but NAV be ar
gued nevertheless, on more careful review of crcum-
stances, that there is still preponerance of probability
on the side of peace.
Asnegotiaons for the evacuation of the Principaties
by pacific agreement actually in progress may pos
sby happen that the result may be accomplished before
the expiration of the appointed term and Prince Gorts
chako may withdraw his troops, not in compliance with
the Turkish summons but in pursuance of European
compact This perhaps not altogether likely but there
viii yet be reason to presume that hostes if de-
cared IN accordance with the proclamation Of the Sultan
may not assume serious aspect be carried such
point as to interfere with the efforts of diplomacy eff
feet an adj usment Russia is at this moment engaged
with two distinct parties-wth the Turks directly and
with Europe indirectly; and it is possible that her
actions with the Turks may reach the length of least
nominal war without incrruptng her negotiations with
Europe Ii the latter, moreover be brought to a
successful arrangement the former will be included pso
fdco in the result for it is degree probable that
any thing which may between Prince Gorschakof
and omar Pasha would be permitted affect materially
understanding between the Four Powers and the Gar
This desirable understanding it is sought nc
compsh by fresh note in which the conditions regarded
as indispensable to the security OF Europe be
pressed in language beyond the reach of
Ii the assent Of the Car be obtained to such in
strumen. the dispute viii be at end, for the terms
above referred to identical with those which the Otto
man Porte has demanded for ITSELF and difference
therefore, will any longer remain. The views of the
Turkish Government known for they have been ex-
pressed in its notifications of the original Vienna
note the views of the Western Powers known also and
are declared to be in accord wi those of Turkey There
is consequently further danger of any disagreement
between Europe and the Porte and the only outstanding
party is the Car But Onutz the Gear protested his
readiness to close in substance with these very cond
tions provided only they could be submitted his Gov
eminent in unobjectionable form The work of the
negotiaors therefore, should only be easy plain
for they know exactly the conditions which required
by two OF the parties, and will not be rejected by the
third.
In the interim our intelligence from Constantinople
induces to believe that the fanatcsm of the Ottoman
population is in degree subsding and that the
solutions of tho Divan less liable than formerly
to the readers mind that this improved tranquility may be
due in great to the departure of the
bulent spirits for the banks of the Danube the
assurance produced the popular mind by the late de-
claraon of the Sultan. SO marked however has been
the changes and small has been the necessity for that
naval force which contemporaries dspatching in
such haste to the Bosphorus that Lord Sraford at
one moment on the point of sending back to the fleet the
two steamers which he had summoned to the capital
are any apprchension entertained of local outbreaks
anatical instructions At the time it will be
gfi,r II ~
some present obstacles to pacific settlement it may be
the of much future disturbance lift is based upon
any confident anticipation of approaching struggle
The Sultan has virtually given pledge for the
men of hostites by the ih instant at the latest and
if this pledge remains unsatisfed the result may prove
unweleome TO those who know what is meant by pro-
mise of but who much to the
rency of notes and " notifications. This contingency,
however, is only Of secondary importance.
We may now carry specuations step further and
observe that if the medators should fail in their
present endeavors hoscs should be prosecuted to
any practical effect by the Russian Ottoman forces
there is TO hope that the may be for time
confined to the comparatively safe localities Of the Lower
Danube the Black Sea, without any general conagra
ton OF Europe is plain from the dispositions eyinced
by the Austrian and Prussan Governments that those
States will lend aid to Russia in her designs but that
on the contrary, they win far support the Western
Powers to promote the preservation of peace upon
terms consistent with European security We do not lay
any great stress upon the announced reduction Of the
Austrian army, though it least be inferred from
this resolution that the Court Of Vienna does anci
pate any such extension of hostties would involve its
own forces in the contest OF Prussia somewhat
may be said for it has been declared that she will give
for the future active medintve character to
neutrality; n statement which can only mean that she
viii address herself without of war; seeing
that right be done in substantial concurrence with the
objects Of France and England.
Under these circumstances and considering that nego-
tinons will be pending all the WHILE il impos-
sibe that hostlites may be proclaimed and partially
prosecuted between Turkish and Russian troops the
Danube in Crcassa without involving Euro pc
in the perls Of the struggle The winter too is rapidly
advancing and the other restraints which may be imposed
on the begerents viii be largely increased by the effects
Of the season.