The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1852-01-06
The President's Chances.

When the first intelligence of the coup in Paris
reached Germany. many took it for granted that
the Tuileries or vincinnes. The majority would
have decided for Vincennes as the more probable of
the two, believing 1t impossible that the French
nation could throw off republic as easily, and
Germans will rightly underst and the history of
the French nation unless they clearly understand
the contradictions Of the French national charac.
ter The French have twice had republic, and
have never attained to free commune free
municipality. Their talent for organization dis
plays isef in small things and great, and in their
hands everything takes q form that can be quickly
moved ut the word Of command. This spirit
anima:es the whole nation and all parties. The
widest revoutionists themselves began by ere at
ing a hierarchy, and, at least for the moment,
subjecting them selves blinily to it. The prosecu'
tion of the conspirators of Lyons gave the most
striking proofs of this Every revolutionist served
from below upwards they were frs. leaders of
sections, then presidents Of arrondisse MEMS were
admitted then-if they succeeded in attracting at
tontion to tkemselves-into the committee of the
department, and thence into the Central Co nmt-
tee. Whoever knows how to command the French,
him they follow with a. instinct of dis cpline, and
understand perfectly Every public authority may
feel quite certain that its subaltern officials vii
allow the dignity Of their office lose nothing in
their hands They all act with an i'm perative air;
none viii tolerate either objection or contradic-
ton; every gendarme. every sentry, every dill
gence conductor seek opportunities OF making
their authority seen or felt. Command-obey;
obey-command; if there is anyb body who can give
France the parole, there it stands in rank aud file be-
fore hi and shoude its arms. 1t would mar ch with
The Bourbons, with the Orleanists, with the Ma.a-
doris Of the National" with the Burgrsves, with
the Bonapartists. The President, perhaps, has
the best chance Of all those; during three years of
that sharp and critical Partisan atmosphere, he
has not, as q personality been quite worn out; and
his name still works wonders on the Bourse and
among the blouses.
The Republic began with very little self conf
dence. It kept the Bourbons in exile, and drove
the Orleans family across the frontiers. And yet,
even before the conflict Of June, the sovereign As
sembly did not venture to refuse to revoke the de-
cree Of Punishment against Louis Napoleon. What
can have fixed the French the reputation of being
difficult to govern! In 1913 had they not three
masters at once-the Committee Of Public Safety,
the Jacobin Club, and the Convention Had not
each Of those bodie men in the departments who
willingly received thor orders and executed them
three oshep hs
fusion always arises from everyb wanting to COM
mand. The restless blood Of the French creates
every day new fashion, and in certain course of
time must have change Of rulers. One must be
pushed forward that others may find places behind
MIN. Gems novarnna rertIm cpplid, Caesar called
them. Had they been ten times more softly bed led
under Louis Philippe, he could not make them for
get that for eighteen years things had worn the
same aspect, the official hierarchy the faces.
He could not but fall not for any special error, but
because he had not fallen long before. The OPP
does not feel he recognises the power Of the State
in tie schoolnaster and the rural guard and if
toe socialists ever get the opportunity Of "organi-
7ng," they will maintain society at the cost Of the
State, and feed the citizens through State officers,
in State establishments.
Before resolute man, who is believed able to
command, the French will bend. Yet the coup
sl'6tat of the 18th B-umaire was q more perilous
a.terap. than the present imitation Of il: The re-
publican leaven was then still active, and the
yoang General Bonapacte had rather dazzed the
public than created any belief ia his ;more solid
qualities. The fame of his two rivals Massena and
Mo,eau had increased, while the public confidence
had been rather SD aiken than gained by the fantas
ii, campaign on the Nile. II had been remarked
tbs his imitation of Alexander was affected, like
his after passage Of the AlPs-a movement Of cues
tionsble military value, though as a State effect,
cleverly calculated And yet all went off SO easily
and smoothly that Napoleon had only to show him
self with few of his epauetted slacedonians to be
congratulated on his success, and to find people on
all sides, "fllcing themselves his disp Tue
governm emit had ct that time generals on whom
it could safely rely; the army Of tie Rhine passed
for strongly repuoi can, and the troops 10 Egypt
were deeply enTsged at the desertion OF Napoleon,
after VIII ose departure the discipline o? the army
became completely dissolved. IL was then also
attempted to justify the conq f(tat by tie alega.
iion Of conspiracy; and probably the parties did
conspire, but only against the impending usurpa.
ton they began to foreeee.
but, 1t is asked-how will Louis Napoleon
maintain himself since the first notabilities a1d
CeleDrlGes OF France nave CtHucLutV CObJt
IN the one scale is the triunsirate, Napoleon, ST.
Arnaud, MagDan; in the other, Theirs, Mole.
Changarnier, Berryer, Dupin, Leon fauche!,
Iocqueville, Dafaure, Barrot, Cavaignac, Lamosi-
ciere, not to mention the suFernumeraries. . fm-
possible lie can maintain himself it is said: per.
baps it is even stii more incredible that Theirs,
Tocqueville, Berger, Changarnier, and the others
Will be able TO recover themselves and gain the
ground fem the staff Of Napoleon the republ.
sans Of to day and yesterday will have enough to do
in turning themselves into Impcriaists Of the l7sd
main; in making the queue, their places will natur.
ally be behind the NonGpartists II this sspears
bitter or insupportable it should be re nhcred that
the French have for every political situation much
more elasticity than the Germans.
The German republican, il thai traceless Hy-
perboroan be yet worth speaking Of, and the quiet
dependent On the Frankfort consultation, have let
The destiny or ISIS and lSl0 pass over them. They
dreamt tney actually lad faith. 10 was their hope
that Germany would ieal2e this constitution, IL
was their i cal, and therefore they Cow mo pas
sion when It's impossibilty represented 20 them,
when doubt was xpressed as to the fitness Of the
J.rI'c f''''. ROY tnemselyes they desired n0tning