The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1852-06-23
Expected Commercial Crash In the Unite,


Prom the London Globe. June
Prudent men, who know tho dangers Of CONNER
cial prosperity. are beginning to look for the first
signs of a coming crash in the United States It's
nvariable foreIuDner-a general extension of credit
hey ond what due regard TO the casualties affecting
the fulflment Of all commercial engagements would
seem to warant-has been broadly apparent for
SOME time The occurrence of some such casualty
of sufficient magnitude to produce movement Of
dists in any Of the great centres Of credit, is
alone wanting to bring about close comparison of
pending engagements with the means Of meeting
them. The result of such comparison, made, as it
would be, in a spirit much less sanguine than that
in which many such engagements have been, and
are being, entered into, would probably end in
marking, pretty accurately. the present Deviation
if any, from the line of legitimate and prudcntsp
lation. 1t is not purpose to excite ALARM but to
forestal it. 1t is to the want Of such comparison
VIC ailude to, made in time, that pecuniary diff
cuties. individual and national are VIGOROUSLY and
almost invariably due. Whence-nore especially
nothing is yet in view indicative Of imminent
hanger. or Of difficulty in Withdrawing gradually
al without loss itom ventures not sonndly based
such present discussion Of he suhi,ct may prompt
timely attention, ard avert any occasion for
dlarm, is now more than at any other time, likely
prove profitable. And our interest in the
mercial condition of the United States is than
Sufficient to justify its careful examination hero.
In some respects the monetary speculatons of the
United States resemble those Of the same country
prior TO the disastrous panic Of 1897; but they have
character of their own distinctive enough to de-
prvc the particular precedeas Of any special value
rs warning Tho native produce Of tho country
has lately been both abundant Ind in good demand.
The consequent rapid accumulation Of capital in The
hands OF IN cutcrp-ising people, in country afford
mr. extraordinary facilities for enterprise, and cs
pccially prompting to forms of investment in which
capital becomes fixed, and not susceptible OF ready
conversion, must always be source of danger
Tho reason is apparent not only in tho uncertainty
attending all attempts to bring the future within
the range Of present calculation. but more striking
~ in the aptitude of individual SPECTATORS when
looking beyond the means within their own COM
nahd, to count upon funds aireody rcckoned upon
by others. AS soon promise to pay is made, the
tulilment of which is not probable, thore is
danger. But speculation does not proceed f4r
before promises arc made which are not even in
tended to be fulfilled Tho spcculator in shares ia
company, for instance, often taEos more than he
hopes TO pay up hoping, instead, to sell ut n
premium to somebody with more capital. Bat
larger capitalists do not wait to take up the
ventures of the smaller i'll numbers great enough
to render such hopes reasonable; and not
being found when looked for, or pressed by
numerous competitors for their aid, tho too san
gune originators OF the speculation or those VINO,
with means sio,ilarly defective. nave been induced
to take thor Places compelled 20 stay eNpend-
which the faith OF its consistence With the
Of the country had come to beregarded as
pro tanto, proof Of prosperity AT the .nd OF the
last ear the railways in in the United States
at the end of twenty years from the inc when their
construction there was begun-had total longth OF
1854 miles. And we are told that those now in
Of construction, extend to 10000 mites tail
ways in America are made quickly as well as
cheaply. Being made quickly, the capital required
for their construction is rapidly called up and Is,
therefore, anything but unreasonable to aesume,
from these figures alone, that the capital required
to be sunk in railway works and plant within the
next three ycars-and the sinking Of which ciunot
be interrupted except at loss, the mere contempa-
tion Of which would produce panic in the SHIRE
markets. equal TO the amount 50 spen. during the
preceding twenty years. And this. assuming that
tue lines already in progress of construction
alone proceeded with, and no Others begun till they
are completed; assumption not consistent with
the circumstances which have led 10 his
extension Of works yielding nothing, though pro.
missing much.
Another element Of danger is observable in the
Californian trade. This resolves itself mainly no n
sendpg Of all the necessarios and comforts of life
from the eastern to the western coast OF tho CONT
nebt. in exchange for gold. Wbe ,ncr the gold OBJ
tanned pays or the commodtiee consumed in bringing
it into the Darko., is question rot yet answered
Assuming that il does the immediate effect may be
allowed 10 be an increased demand for these COM
modies and, so far as the demaod may be continu-
Gus, new and legitimate source Of profit TO their
producers It's Interior effects moro questioua-
bic But now the Californian trade mas evil
IDENTITY incidental effect not conducive to the
safety OF the American commerce. Those who do
no. go 10 the " diggings' yet share. more or less
consciously the dreams and the fsversh desire to get
rich il haste which carrying many thousands
there in person. The diggers are served with the
means Of life by others, who through that service
share their game, with much also of thoir uncer-
tainty In short, the whole trade, and every opera.
ton In it. fiom the manufactures aud warehouses Of
Boston, New York, and New Orleans, to the stores
OF San Francisco and the pacers, shares the specu
lativc character Of the actual search for gold And
thus the gambling sprit always ready, whore money
If p'enufu,, TO tako the lead in the commerce OF
America, liz, at IN unlucky moment, prompted to
dangerous activity by an influence too and TOO
insidious in us operation TO be easily detected
guarded against.
The effect is seen in an exaggerated estimate not
only OF present income but of the endurance aud
probable growth Of that income and aocurnuia
GEOGRAPHICALLY visible in the publ. he'd aggregate
of railway epgago ments. hut similarly existing,
though less visible, elsewhere-of promises to pay
based upon these exaggerated estimates A sober
comparison Of the promses with tho MEANS made
now, for prudence sake, would either say any IN
crease Of the former or confirm their now suspccted)
expediency. In any event. time must soon force