The republic. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1849-1853, 1852-11-13
From the London Spectator. October %.

and Paris in Berlin, Brussels, and Rome--in New
York and Washington--to say nothing also OF
Cape Town and the Australian pitals-is Concern
ing itself and the prospect of general war. The
continental veterans OF the last war, the Germans
and Austrians especially, are speaking a. II their
old experience were rising to premium. and they
are aying down the Law as 10 the probabilities of
such occurrence with great vivaci,y They are con-
sidering the probable results OF this or that combi
nation when the outbreak may happen. Louis Ma
poleon, they say, will not be able to stick to peace
by his own will; his army and encourage will force
him into hostilities. A war between France and
England would he pleasing to Austria, especially If
Prussia joined England; then Austria might make
war in Germany, and strengthen her own empire.
We attach no great importance to the speculations
Of cid gentlemen whose political views are based
mainly upon the state OF affairs thirty or forty
year. ago, and who find great dihculty In bring
ing the understanding of 1915 to bear upon 1852 or
1853. The general tendency, however, to talk Of
subject, although Of no great moment at any
particular place or time, becomes clearly signiti-
and many countries. II people in places go far
apart as those which we have mentioned, for two
or three years persevere in discussing war as an
imminent probability, it 10 all but certain that they
are moved by some common impulse resting upon
reality. II a Viennese general, an Italian patriot,
a Cape rebel an Australian colonist, cute Van
kee, q French adventurer, and London trader,
all find their minds inclined TO run upon the same
idea, there must be some real and solid fact at the
bottom, upon which they all really stand, and Of
which they are conscious II does not matter that
the fact may lie below the surface, may be vague
and difficult for us to scruiinize and describe. We
all feel it is there; it is he common cause of the
| common thought in so many different communi.
ties and understandings. The general concur.
renee. therefore, Of superficial signs, indicates that
this war talk has in 1t reality; that this war 10
thing to BIZ, at no very distant day. ...
But If war is TO fall upon the world, what does
It involve? What are the main points at stake If
Europe should be involved in general CT ntest?
This is q question which concerns US not remotely,
not lightly; because In the brief interval allowed
between that event, which all concur in expecting,
the position of our own country in the conflict
the things in which it takes a most lively inter-
est-may be materially influenced. I'D str
The hrst thing that appears to us to be at stake
10 freedom The freedom of Europe il pre- emf
nently at stake, especially according to our Eng
lish understanding Of the word. Although the
modern idea to the rights of the people preva.
lent upon the whole in England, and in tnosc
countries which have been endeavOring to copy
her institutions 10 ofcompa ratively recent growth,
yet fnr some century or two, even more, Europe
has upon the whole been adopting civil rather
than a military form of government II is so me
times said that this progress Of civil freedom is
endangered and checked by outbreaks like those
of 1913; and, fact, it may be 80; but, as mat
ter of logic, the result 10 not creditable either to
the state Of intelligence in Europe to the moral
courage of those who support constitutional free.
dom. .. ....r.. ..5-.
The excess of all uneducated populace and its es!
pecial friends have logical force against the
merits Of regulated liberty; as little the
free dom Of any sort. 1t 10 the business Of those
who uphold regulated liberty to see that their doc
trines he maintained in the face Of both extremes;
and it argues little for the conviction, the moral
courage, even the practical intelligence of men,
when they finch from maintaining their princi-
pies at the time when those principles most
peremptorily challenged The revolution Of lS4S,
and the reaction OF lS49, were exactly the times
when the uphOlders Of constitutional freedom
should have used their utmost exertions; and it
was exactly at those times that they most cope.
cially drew back from their opportunity The
struggle has been left to the extremes. One ex
treIne has vahquished; arbitrary rule has pressed
with such iron force on the populations, that
chronic rebellion is maintained by counter
irritation; and In the case OF a general war, it
ia probable that provocatives Of the same kind,
on both sides, would be sufficient pre,eucc for
increase to the aggressive spirit Of arbitrary
rule. Immense arinTes have been formed for the
maintenance Of that rule; they are all now en-
gagged in practical encroachments; period Of
general disturbance would give them the opportu-
nifty Of extending those Entertainments and con.
frIning them. Although none Of US can deter
mine the ultimate results OF general commotion
in Europe, the fret result seems tolerably certain
the establishment Of military machinery az the
ordinary rule of government. An illustration of
that Is seen in Northern Italy, where even munich
pal affairs ADM nstered by the soldiery Of the
empire. If freed I'm s at stake, therefore, in the
next European war, the most obvious danger
which threatens is the general establishment of
military administration. atrJ x ,' 1"i" .eEg@
has at stake, in case there should be any general
conflict, Ia her commerce. This ia assailed in
many ways. Her intercourse with countries quite
willing trade with her might Of course be stopped
by any power able to intercept that intercourse,
especially If England failed, by the popularity of
the position that she might assume, to- engage on
her aide the good will Of any such community.
signiGed their desire to extend commercial rela-
tons with this country, and we know their re-
sources tor that purpose are ample. But In the
case Of war it might be quite possible for Austria
to intercept even the existing trade of England
with both these countries. Her commerce. al sea
would be much more manifestly endangered. The
Australians airea Iy perceive that; and in the Aus
tralian newspapers, as well as in private letters
brought by the last mail. we find sombre reflex
Of the reports from Europe that war might pro.
badly break out. The Australians are alarmed for
their own produce trade, for the gold traffic, for
merce in any form. Freights and insuranees, they
say, will rise. OF course they would The long
voyages, even more than the short, would be men,
anced by state Of the world which should loose
the maritime power and privateers against our
trading ships. a.aN S. v-gnas 81 IA, safra1fa. !.
In these respects England stands in periecuy
different condition from what she did before. At
time her sailors were exclusively her own; but
since that period great progress has been made in
manning with English sailors the navy ola foreign
countryside navy OF the American Republic. At
a more distant period it was highly amusing for
British privateers to intercept Spanish argosics
bearing COLO 10 EUROPE NJ tne pTc6eDt Jay TIC
great argosies are the English; and amusing az it
might be to bring Spanish gold ship into London
or BRISTOL the countenances in London and BristOl
would look very blank at hearing that an English
gold ship had been carried into New York or Brest.
Yet the contingencies by no means impossible.
Much, indeed, would depend upon the question,
who were our enemies our foes. Some we need
scarcely fear; others would turn the scale aganst
us, or for us.in immense proportions. Tho un
derwriters would be able to tell the mercantile
equation of dangers like these, but they could not
form the estimates until they knew tho distribution
of animosity or amity. .,.'
Using the word in a very high sense. commerce
would be attacked stl more vitality and in another
form, and the Australians forcsee it A general
war would put stop to graion-emigratio
| to Australia, emigration to America. A general
war, in other words, would stop the outlet of
people and the inlet Of wealth that is to say
II we had arrayed against US strong maritime
powers. This check to emigration would have it's
effect not only upon US at horne, il would iDjure
our colonies and our remote dependencies; il would
exasperate them, and our relatives and allies might
be Disguised as TO acc value in longer alliance.
general war in Europe might materially affect
the political geography of tt,e British empire. but
much, as we have said before, would depend upon
the distribution of animosy or amity. The insur-
ance brokers could not exactly furnish the mer-
camille equation for this contingency the states
man may have come idea both Of its Importance