The republic. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1849-1853, 1851-04-04
From the ChrIssten Evening Nsps.
Probabilities OF . Money Crisis.

The question Of probable crisis in pecuniary
affairs appears to divide the opinions of the in
differs OF money articles for the newspaper press
in greater degree now than at any similar
period. One class Of these writer's presumes
that our heavy European importations will soon
lead to large expectation of our coin. Bot
another class rebuts this presumption by the
fact that, If our imports are large. Is the
aggregate value of our exports. One description
Of reasoners draws attention to the circumstance
that the recent European investments in American
stocks-amountiDg now to one hundred and fifty
millions of dollars-may be recalled at almost any
moment in specie. But another points to the coun-
tsrvaing circumstance that q current OF hard mo-
Il
supposed to be countcrbalanced by another in an
tagonism oit. should all fail 10 Offset the
export of our dollars and eagles, the ssnguine
speculators-the optimists in money aftairs--fall
back on the California discoveries. They find here
the solution Of all doubt or difheulty-the counter
action of all tendencies to commercial collapse and
noneyed revuision The only reply that can be
made to this rebuting statement 10. that the sur
face gold may be sooner exhausted than is implied
in this argument, it being admitted that mining for
gold will greatly restrict the supplies.
Here, then, seems TO be the limit Of speculation
the turning point of reaction. No one, according
TO this reasoning, expects recoil whilst the banks
have stream OF gold entering their vaults in one
direction, when flowing out at another. The spe.
one side favorable to an indefinite expansion of
credit The paper superstructure receives more
than correspondent extension, il the reply on the
other side, against such extension.
In this state of the controversy there appear to be
no common principles TO which appeal may lie of
acknowledged authority. The gold discovery has
set aside precedent and upset tradition. The rule
which assigned some fixed duration to speculative
movement, IL now regarded as among the rem
nants of commercial superstition. Mercantile cy-
tcles, which were thought to limit adventure and
bring speculation to pause, are placed among
those deceptive annlogies by which time is sup
posed to enter as an element in reasoning on COM
mercial phenomena.
Now, in all this there is little too much of daring
confidence. It were perhaps presumptuous to in
dicate the sohe sohere the reco is 10 take place
whether il will be the autumn Of 1851 the spring
of l852-whether the shores of the eastern Pacific
or those of the western Atlnntic-whether England
or the United States is to be the eliminating point
Of new moneyed crisis and convulsion. Still, sup
posing the political waters TO remain unrufiied.
tending to commercial quietude, there are guiding
principles great notwithstanding against
coming mischief, which should not be cast into
shadow. There analogies of which we cannot
safely be oblivious. Among the cautionary max
inns which are taught by lessons Of commercial
history, is the constant tendency to a rebound,
from prolonged expansion of credits, by innp-
preciable circumstances, counteractve Of all influ
ence from gold discoveries.
Among these elements Of disturbance are the
panics produced by the fall in value of any of the
great staples of commerce. Such panics are indc-
pendent of political contingencies They COM
mence frequently in Insignificant causes, and
spread by cOntagion over. large surface. Were
want of confidence to arise in any of the leading
departments of mercantile adventure, amount
of gold received in the United States from Califor
MIA could countcract or arrest the mischief. The
oscillations in the commercial balance which now
occur, to give temporary disturbance to the mo-
ncy market, would be lost in that wider vibration
which 50 often gives token Of moneyod crisis The
inference therefore, is, that there is limit to that
speculative action, which, in the new supply of
gold, rejects analogy and refuses to take counsel
Of the past. 1t appears to be the dictate Of pru-
dence not to build up to higher elevation the su-
perstructure Of credit, when the signs betoken
what may end at any moment in convulsion.