The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1851-02-06

TO HE EDITOR OF THE HERALD.
IN the 4, ,tuns Of the 2lst INST. there is
letter from Boston, signed N. M, in reply 10
statement Of mine on the hog trade OF the West,
and To which that paper refers as full reply there-
to; but which, on examination, proves 10 be inii
only as respects words and assumptions for which
there is no foundation IN fact. The writer, II Is
true, uses figures but in doing so he gives very
conclusive proof that even figures may lie. The
statement in his letter of the number OF hogs packed
at various points in Missouri and Illinois, may
have been gwen in good faith on his part, but il Is
quite certain that the party IN the West who iur.
hshed II as an exposition OF the whole seasons
packing at those points, made representation CAL
culated 10 deceive He must have known, when
he furnished il, that even then the quantity packed
al ST. LOUIS was more than $1,000, while nearly
all the packers were still at work-the number be-
ing now up TO $4,000, and hogs still arriving freely.
Adsices just received state that the total packing
at that point will reach 100000, against 10000
lest year, tnot l35, 600, as stated BY N. M OF
the places named, ST. Louis Is the only one have
the means of checking; but il is fair TO assume that
the other figures gwen are equally incorrect.
Again, he says that I" the falling oil in Tennes-
see still greater, not onethlId OF last years sup
ply being calculated on y In disprooi OF which the
telegraph report from Cincinnati, OF the 9Th, states
thai the number of hogs already packed in Ohio,
Indiana, kentucky, and Tennessee is So, 900,
against l,E5000 last year, while packing Is stil
gong forward. However cssirou., too, las have
already SAID in my former leiter,) one might be 10
ascertain the plumber of hogs packed throughout
the West, at hi, period of season like the pre-
stnl, il would be found quite impossible TO get
~ the truth, Us the unusually high prices paid
viii proiract the season much beg ond the ord-
nary nmc OF closing, while the returns received
are not 10 be depended on, inasmuch as II Is the
obvious interes; oi thoae who have gone into stock
at such prices, in the belief Of short supplies, 10
gain currency tor thai opinion even after the cir
cumstances on which it was founded have COM
pletely changed. In confirmation OF this remark,
would quote the instance ol a circular published
by the late Mr.. Winchester, Of Boston, at the
close OF The packing season OF lSiS-'i9, (which
Afforded some parallel 10 the present yeAr,) in
which, after giving returns from the various pack
ing points of the West, showing very deficient
supplies Of hogs, lac gave II as his opinion that the
total quantity packed would fall very much short
of the previous seaEon while the result proved that
a larger number had been packed than IN any pre-
vous year, the receipts Of pork at New Orleans
having been $4,000 barrels, against 356, 900 IN the
previous season. In this case, too, the in'osma-
ton was collected with considerable trouble aud
expense BY Mr.. Winchester, who would not be
charged, by any peTson that knew him, with
putting forward statement in the truth OF which
he did not fully believe. ". M. disputes the cor
rectnsss Of my position that the quantity of hog
products wanted this year will be less than last,
and calls IT a mere assumption. lie has shown IN
his letter mat assertions and assumptions are very
easily made, when he gives the comforting assn.
rance that the people in England evil have
American lard, at remuneratng prices TO shippers"
whatever the rates here may be; but those who
make shipments Of present rates, IN the faith Of
his assurance, may Ind that such predictions are
much mor. easy Of utterance than Of fuhlment. A
very wide distinction, in my opinion, Is TO be made
between mere puesses and calculations based on
the expected continuance Of principles which have
always been found 10 operate in the same direc-
ton, the two principles on which found my
opinion on the subject now under review, being,
fret, that a continued high range OF prices during
the packing season Will always bring out an un.
look d. for number Of hogs; and second, that high
prices will decrease consumption when other arti-
cles can be used az substitutes.
would egain allude TO the decrease exports
under high prices, N. M having conveniently
overlooked the facts stated in my former letter
his head, as regards the small shipments 10 Great
Britain during the past four months, relatively
with former years. The succeeding months, too.
will chow still greater falling off, inasmuch as
the hogs packed in the Eastern ports which, for
some years past, have been prepared for and
shipped TO the English market, are this season be-
ing put up in mess pork and other forms, to meet
the present home demand, thus enabling the hold
ers Of old pork TO nurse over their stocks for the
high prices which are se confidently expected TO
prevail as the season advances.
Wih respect 10 lard (Which appears 10 be ".
NJ. s pet artice), the product Of TINS season may,
and probably will be, less than last but AT any
higher rates than the average OF last year, the
quantity produced will be more than adequate TO
the demand-the assumptions that Great Britain
will take as much, or more, and tn there will be
a greatly increased home demand, whatever the
rrice OF lard may be, being equally fallacious. ~
"a grounds the latter expectation on the present
high value OF sperm oil but IL is well known that
he demand tor lard oil Is much more affected by
The price Of whale ell than of sperm and whale
OIL 60 Tar from bearing high value, as com
pared with last year. is likely TO be much
barrels against 2O7Ooo barrels imported last
ytar, in view Of which the price has already
ALLEN since the lat December last from &c to t0c,
With the prospect Of still farther decline. His