The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1850-10-01


ture and validity of the pleas by which they have
attempted TO deceive their own conscencies, and
| TO Gelude Others.
Speculation In Cotton.
From the London News. Sept Is
Whether commercial Tevulsions be be not as
necessary and inevitable as are the fux aud eiux
| oftbe tide, form a curious and doubtful question.
Cer'sin is, that in addition to those which are su-
perinduced by purely political causes, and which
can never be clearly foreseen or thoroughly guard
ed against, they make their appearance IN the Of
binary course of atlairs, if not at periods exactly
regular at least in cycles, of which, 1t s not difficult
| TO determine the average extent. In Whatever
shape they MAY present themselves, they are pretty
| generally found TO spring either from egregions
mscsculations on the part of producers or dealers,
| or from an extensive arrangement of the money
market, causing sudden and violent huctuation in
! the quantity and value OF money. Difficult though
| il be accurately TO determine the principles which
regulate them, they are usually found preceded by
| symptoms and followed by results bearing an anal
| egg, If not resemblance 10 each other. A close
attention to these, the part of our business men,
| wonld go far towards TIE dissemination of that
| sound information respecting the laws OF trade
| which would greatly mitigate the severity OF COM
mercial revusIons. No one can attenuyely read the
signs CT the times without observing that the phe
nomena which generally usher in those periods
/ of impetuous prosperity, sure to be followed by
seasons OF ruinous reaction, now rife ia the COM
merciil atmosphere; and that superintendent capital,
with restricted field of employment, is the most
| prominent feature IN our present commercial con-
diii0n. IL is true that onr exports and imports are
unusually large, showing healthy state of trade,
but so also are our accumulations, notwthsian ding
| the recent wholesale destruction Of capital by the
railway mania. This is shown by the presen.
cheapness of money, the best evidence of its abun-
dance. Low rates of interest cannot long continue
| without quickening the ingenuity of capitalists,
| with view 10 devise some mode or other for the
profitable investment of capital all but proftless,
whilst circulating in the ordinary channels OF
trade. Such state OF things has been the prelude
to reckless speculation before, and will be so again,
until the science of trade is reduced to its guiding
| principles, and universally understood. Even al
| ready there are unmistakeable signs that men are
dispose forget the terrible teachings of the last
few years. and every condition TO period Of active
speculation to be fulfilled, except that of de-
| termining the precise drecti IN which II should
| take. Already are men considering what the next
mania will be, and anxious to discover the actual
| form OF that, the shadow of which seems already
TO rest On the monetary world, so as TO dive early
into the vortex and realize fortunes on the ruin OF
| those wbo may follow. II is not surprising that
the present state of the cotton market should ar
| rest the attention and excite the cupioity of many
| who are in this temper. The limited extent of the
stocks on hand, the frmness and still upward ten
dency OF prices and the unfavorabe prospects, real
| or supposed, OF the growing crop in the U aited
Sates have, for some time past drawn attention 10
cotton, as furnishing good material for spec1laton.
| Many are convincing themselves that present
prices are but the prelude 10 much higher rise in
price, and that a sure road to rapid fortune would
be TO purchase cotton and postpone realizing. IL
| any attempt Is made 10 reason with such, they
point, in refata;ion of all doubts to the stocks in
Liverpool and in the American seaports, TO the ".
propiiious season with which the growing plant has
had TO contend, and 10 the probabilities which ex.
| Isl of not only steady, but even an increased de.
| msnd for the mills. IL is on these grounds that
they rest their hopes Of being able s:e day, not
lar distant, 10 feallze at prices the attainment Of
which would be heavy blow to their expecia-
tons, from the check which they would necessarily
| give 10 consumption. II any evidence were want
| ing Of the madness characteristic Of excessive
speculation, il would be furnished in the partial
tnr0 In Ivan u boz ,rAt
! mania. Of the ordinary connection between cause
and effect is no, our purpose, At present. TO de-
ny the grounds on which the saoguine cacula-
| tons OF many are based. We do not question the
limited extent Of the stocks on hand, both here
and in America, as indicated by the serious falling
| oil which has taken place in the expor, from the
American ports 10 Great Britain. As compared
with the corresponding period OF last year the de-
| crease isnot far from half million Of bales, or
about four months consumption But there is fortu-
n9stely, now some ground for questioning the un-
growing crops. Some weeks ago the prospect in
| this respect was gloomy cnodgh, but our more re-
cent intelligence is calculated TO dispel much Of
| the apprehension which then existed. Unfavosa-
bic iidings still reach us from the Atlantic States;
but the reports are now, on the whole, much more
cheering nom the great cotton growing regions to
the westward, from which the largest supplies arc
| now obtained. There is still time for adverse
weatherto do lie work, but favorable change hsd
taken place in many Of the cotton growing ds,ric.s
| before the plant had been irreuievably injured.
There is also some ground for doubling the accu.
racy OF the calculation, in as far as il is based
| upon an anticipated increase Of demand on the part
o. the tpinners. u Is supposed by many that
third less OF the raw material has been
consumed this year than last, there must
have been corresponding decrease in the num-
Der OF Yards of cloth manufactured such would I'M
doubedly have been the case, had The goods manu-
featured continued Of the same weight and texture
as before. But this has not been 40 with a very
great PROPORTION ct them. For many months the
high price Of cotton rendered the weaving OF coarse
hfIuled n 10 M In ri
mills end partially suspend the operations Of others
But this interruption TO business was, in many
cases, accompanied by change in machinery,
liner class Of goods, the price Of which would be
less affected by the fluctuations occurring in the
cost of the raw material. The consequence
is that, unless very low price for cotton
should occasion a return 10 the manufacture Of
heavy bodied goejs, IL will he some time ere any
marked incre ace takes place in the dem.ad for cot.
ton, seeing that much less IL now actually consumed
than was consumed this time last year, by the same
number Of mills. Nay more, We are inclined 10
think that the demand, for cone time, so far from
Increasing, Is Likely 10 decrease, hen we consider
what may be anticipated as the natural result of
the largely increased exports this year 10 America
Notwithstanding this, We are no, so much surprised
Ut prefent prices, considering the lowness 81 the
eochs and the extent OF the present demand. Bat we
would warn holders against suffering their cupdiy
To make them too retentve of Their Stocks aud the
public from being tempted by existing prices and
prospects 10 rush headlong into what may seem =
promising speculation For be IL remembered that 1
the history OF cntion specuations is rife ia warn
ing as II Is IN encouragement. II fortunes have |
been suddenly made, so have fortunes been ire |
irievably wrecked by il. Those who recoeci the |
bubbles OF lS25, can easily recall the event TO /
which coiioe speculation figured amongst then. /
They can also trace the resemblance between the |
circumstances which led TO IL, and thcse which are
DOW seducing many 10 contemplate its repetition.
The cotton SPECULATION ~ Is2j originated in the /
belief that the stock in hand Yves low, that the
growing crop was deficient, and that the demand, |
both a. home aud abroad, was not only great, bst
increasing. But II turned out that the stock In
hand was high that the growing crops were sbun.
dant, and that neither the BRUSH nor the cont-
mental demand was unusually great. The conse-
quences were dreadful. The ground which
thousands had rushed madly into the speculation,
ly hAnc