The Camden journal. [volume] (Camden, S.C.) 1836-1851, 1849-11-14


that of the last. the supply will fall short Of it
by 100000 bales.
The next inquiry is, what will be the pro.
bable demand?
Our home consumption will require, viz:
For Northern Manufactures, $4,000
4" Southern and Southwestern do. 100000
Foreign--for France and the Continent 100000
Great Britain, 100000
Total demand, 2,25O,OOo
We have estimated the consumption OF the
Northern Manufactures at the amount of last
year, from the fact that their progress hitherto
has been little inhuen need by short crops or ad-
ranced prices. and fair inference is that it will
he the same this year. For the Southern man.
ufactures we have also aowedthe same as last
year. notwithstanding their extraordinary in
crease of late would justify the expectation Of
enlargement this year. For France and the
Continent. we have estimated the demand at
100000 bales, supposing that the advance in
prices will lessen it 100000 bales. For Great
Britain, we have put down 100000 bales, ad-
mitting that high prices will diminish her con.
sumption of the Cotton of the United States
$4,000 bales. With these admissions, and
reducing the probable demand TO the smallest
limits, we find that il would still be more than
sufficient 10 absorb all the stock in our seaports
and interior towns on lst Sept. last, and the en-.
tire crop that is likely TO come to market up 10
lst Sept, 1850.
But as Great Britain is our principal custom.
er, and has hitherto controlled prices, and their
future course will be sersibly influenced by her
action, a short review Of the prospects OF our
Cotton in her market is Of primary Importance.
In the foregoing estimate we have put down
100000 bales as the portion she is likely to
obtain from present crop. More she can
not well obtain; and 10 get even this. she must
enter the lists with competitors, whose wants
require more than the halt of our crop, and
whose necessities are as great comparatively,
as hers. Less she cannot do wihou-even
granting that her consumption decreases $780,.
600 to 100000 bales of our Cotton, in couse-
quence Of advance in prices.
The accounts up TO October IL, states the
stock of American Cotton in Liverpool at 349,.
266 bales. Atthe present rate of her consump.
tion, It would be sufficient but fortweve weeks,
and leave little or no stock on hand on the lst
January next. Allowing that all the Cotton
shipped from our ports from lst September TO
18th November is received before The lst Jan
uary, not more than $4,000 bales can be added
TO the stock in Liverpool for up to this period,
since lst September, hut %, 900 bales have been
shipped to Great Britain. and it is not likely
that it will exceed 10000 bales by 18th No.
vember. Thus Great Britain will begin the
coming year with smaller stock OF American
Cotton in Liverpool than since the year 1924.
(when the average price Of Upland in Liver.
pool was lid, and advanced afterwards to
i 5.sd,) and with less probable supply, in
proportion 10 her consumption, than has ever
existed.
But it may be said that orr data arr mere
suppositions. and cannot be reasoned upon as
facts. "Shor crops" it is said, "arr Synony.
NOUS with short consumption" and all calcula.
tions are ial!acious which assum" that the con-
sumption will 90 on as before, unde an advance
OF 40 to so per cent. in prices. All calcula.
tions of this kind must, in their nature, he part.
ly speculative; bnt that short crops are synon.
ymous with short consumption, the history of
Cotton ialsifes. Under the short crops Of
1S29-'3l-'3S consumption steadily increased,
and only decreased under those Of 1888 and
40: thus being three TO two against The truth
Of the assertion We 10 not bring in the short
crop of ls47, because consumption was affected
by other rauscr than tho relation ni d.uLlnl and
supply. Regarding the position that advance
in prices must check consnnpinD, it is AT all
times difficult to fix the height 10 which they
must 90 to have this effect. But the past
history Of Cotton would show that presrn: pri
ces in Liverpool may he considerably aIvanrcd
even up II 8 la. without affecting ron .r,,np.
ton. During ,h' yalr> fo", 1923 10 l-.!". ...-
average price -. gogh J"3a>i Caroa ~ Live.
pool was 5 =. I3i, ~ J., H. ri. a.1
yet consumpiion steadily alvan""I IN al
vance TO 5 Led IN the I;vrrprnl ,na"i,. we
believe, would be no check The rise in The
price of the manufactured article wouM soon
compensate for the advance in the raw material
1t is, however, questionable whether Great
Britain can lessen her consumption, and grt on
with even larger supply Of our Cotton than
we have allowed, or than sh" can possibly oh
tain. The old cry of" working short inc.''-
"suppies from India, -" unremunr rating
prices for her manufactures &C., will no
doubt be resorlrd to for lhr purpose ot reducing
prices: but sh" cannot 2aYt' Is game success
fully now. S'rn irnm"rY r"nt!ivanrcS rr,n>,
soon be alirr fh"" rl.,,,'n" ! Tho r'"r".'
at stake iS"f t." ... .'.':~' :, ,a2...l.
ed on ~" =
alvarr. e..
pr,,,r.