Columbus Democrat., 1849-11-24
From the Charies.on Mercury.
CotIom--Tfs PrOsPeots-- Demand and
Supply.

From the Charles-On Mercury,
CotIom--IfS PrOspeots--D Demand and
Supply.
The late intelligence from Europe, quoting an
extensive demand, aud an advance in the price
of fcoon, is cheering to the prospects Of the plan
ter, and promises continuance of lair prices tor
lSe future. The Importance of the cotton trade,
the probable demand and supply, and the future
course of prices, are SUBJECTS exciting deep anN-
iety and careful investigation ahroad-and Ger
tainy from their important bearing on the pros
periIy Of the South, should be not less sub
ject of examination with U.s. A fair inquirl
then, into some important facts affecting future
prices, will show we think, that present rates are
only legitimate, and that even somewhat higher
NAV be expected.
We will first view the subject in its general
aspect, remarking that the examination will be
confined to American Cotton, as by its prospects
all other kinds will be governed. The crop Of
last year, the largest ever made, amounted TO
9729000 bales. For every bale ofths there
has been demand, and that not OF a speculative
character, but to meet the actual wants of con-
sumption.
! Let US then examine first what will be the pro
bable supply for the coming season;
| The stock on hand in Northern and South.
ern seaports on lst Sept, was l4273lb.
/ In the interior towns of the South 24,lo6
Admitting the present crop as one,lourih
of ls ST year and it will be 2,0l7,500
Total supply to Sept. lst 1850 2,2l4,420b.
| We have estimated the crops al but one>iouuh
short. which we think full estimate, considering
the accounts received fiom all sections OF the
I Cotton growing country. Hence, il is evident
that if the demand of this season equals that OF
last, the supply will fall short Of it by 100000
I bales.
The next inquiry is, what will be the probable
| demandl
Our home consumption will require, viz:
For Norhe manufactures $4,000
For Southern and Southwestern do 100000
Foreign--For France and Continent 800 600
Great Britain l,000000
Total demand 2.25C 900
We have estimated the consumption of the
northern manufactures at the amount OF last year,
from the fact that their progress hitherto has been
! little Influenced by short crops, or advanced prl.
ces and a fair inference is that il will be the
same this year. For the southern manufactures
we have also allowed the same as last year, not.
withstanding their extraordinary increase of late
would Justify the expectation of enlargement this
year. For France aud the Continent we have
estimated the demand at 100000 bales, suppo.
sing that tho advance in prices would lessen II
! 100, ,0GuElales, admitting that high prices vii
diminish her consumption OF the cotton Of the u.
/ s. 80 900 bales. With these admissions, and
reducing the probable demand to the sma lest
! limits, we find that it would still be more than
sufficient TO absorb all the stock in our seaporls
and interior towns on the ls Of September last,
aud the entire crop that is likely to come To mar.
ket up to The 1t Sept. 1850
But as Great Britain Is our principal customer,
and has hitherto controlled prices, aud their iG-
tnre course will be scnsibly Influenced by her ac.
ton, a short review OF the prospects of our cot
ton in her market is of primary Importance. In
the foregoing estimate we have put down 600,
600 bales as the portion she is likely to obtain;
and to get even this she must enter the Ii is with
competitors, whose wants require more than the
half Of our CROP and whose necessities are as
great comparatvely,as hers. Less, she cannot do
without--even granting that her consumption de.
creases 100000 to 100000 bales OF our cotton.
in consequence Of advance in prices.
/ The accounts up to October 18th, state the
stock of American cotton ia Liverpool al $40, 266
bales. At the present rate Of her consumption,
it would be sufficient but for twelve weeks, aud
! leave little or no stock on hand on the | st Of Jan.
Al. ~, -. ,..,1tr
our ports from the lst oI Sept. to the 18th OF Noy
is ived before the Isl of Jan, not more than
10000 bales can be added to the stock in Liver.
pool; for up to this period, since the first Of Sep
but %, 600 bales has been shipped to Great Bri
tain, and il is not likely that it will exceed 10000
bales by the 18th ofNov. Thus Great Britain
| will begin the coming year with smaller stock
/ Of American cotton in Liverpool than since the
/ year 1885, when the average price OF Upland IN
Liverpool was SID, and advanced aferward;
to llsd, and with less probable supply
in proportion to her consumption, than has evel
| existed
4 But it may be said that our data are mere sup
positions, and cannot be reasoned upon as facts
''Shor, crops" it is said, "are synonymous viii
short consumption" and all calculations are ial
IaciOus which assume that tie consumption vii
90 on as before, under an advance Of 40 TO 50 pc
cent in prices. All calculations ofthis kind must
! in their nature, be partly speculative: but tha
short crops are synonymous with short consump
ton, the history ofcotton falsies. Under th'
short crops of lS29-'3l-'35 consumption steadil
increased, and only decreased under those 0
1888 and 40; thus being three to two agains
the truth of the assertion. " e do not bring il
the short crop Of lS47, because consumption wa
affected by other causes than the relation Of de
mand and supply. Regarding the position tha
advance in prices musht check consumption, il 1
at all times difficult to fix the height to whcl
they must 90 to have this effect. But the pas
history of cotton would show that present price
in Liverpool may be considerably advanced, eve'
upto Sgd, without affecting consumption. Du
IL ,