The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1848-10-22
RArrBrr's Horxr., NEW YoRx, Oct. 10, lS48.

OF ONO ana l'c1nSyfcdStd-IheU dfceM ctdtc
Eleet,ons-1Ne Retur,ls, accompanied Uith the
Reports of our Recent EXPLORATIONS anecdotes,
on the Hay, ofthe Neto York Herald.
The pending Presidential canvass has become,
al the eleventh hour, one of the most interesting
in the history of the country. The contest is "a
pidy concentrating Its elements INTO distinct
Cass and Taylor fight. Extraneous questions, and
outside factions, are merging as rapidly into the
two great parties OF the day There is every reason
TO believe that General Cass cannot be elected
without the votes of Ohio and Pennsy lvania, and
that, with the loss of either of those States, he is
defeated On the other hand, CT General Taylor
should get the vote of South Carolina, or should
the vote of South Carolina be cast for some indie
pendent candidate, there Is possibility that
General Taylor may be elected without either the
vote of Ohio or Pennsylvania. And It is by no
means certain that South Carolina will vote for
either Cass or Taylor, If we take II for granted
that the opinion OF Mr.. Calhoun is 10 operate. as
heretofore, in controlling the decision of the State.
Mr.. Calhoun stands aloof. He has objections 10
both Taylor and Cass, and his position is one OF
armed neutrality. With all the indications of the
late elections and all other evidences OF public
sentiment taken together, the aspect OF the cam
paIgn has most decided approximation TO Tay-
lor's election.
Ourrecent exporatonsin OHIO and Pennsylvania.
in advance of the late elections, have fallen short OF
an absolute ful6ment only from causes which no
man of either party, IN el'her Stale, prepared
10 take into the estimate.
At Philadelphia, distinguished politician of the
whig party, engaged all the season in the duties of
the Campaign, gave II as hisjudgment that If John
ston was defeated onybyiour or five thousand, the
State could be saved to Taylor. On the other hand,
leading democrat, in the councils of the State,
believed that Longstreth would be elected by $4,000
majority. AT Philadelphia, therefore. we split the
difference, and put down the probability of Long
streth's election by 10000 majority. AT Harris
burgh, we had more deliberate consultation with
wings, democrats, and tree sollers, the first and
most intelligent politicians OF their respective par
ties, and the result was, the summing up OF evil
dence justiyipg reduction of Longstreth's proba-
blemajority, to four or five thousand
AT Pittsburgh, we found a large and efficient or
ganlZatlon, and our consultations were especially
directed to ascertain their strength, their opinions,
and their course of action, as the best method of
arriving at a safe conclusion. The results Of these
conferences detailed in our letters from Pitts
two including, also, the following extract of our
letter from Hagerstown, OF September 27:-
OPINIONS or TAYLOR DEMocRAr We met to-.
day with an intelligent Taylor democrat, the very
He considers that Johnston is certain Of election
and that Taylor will get the State. VIM. Biger the
candidate Of the northern radical democracy for Go
vernon, superseded by Longstreth, and that has
given great dissatisfaction, well the Baltimore
doings, to the democracy Of the northern counties
with the 5000 or 5000 majority they viii get in Phila
deiphia city and county, they viii carry the State
That, said he, Is my decided conviction The agrees
the Taylor ranks and the election will show that do
not stand alone.
in the east of the certainty of Longstreths election
by eight ten thousand but every days researches
tend strengthen the impression that the Governors
election will be a we'll contested fight, and II Long
streth succeeds by three four thousand it may be
accounted great victory.
From our Pittsburgh letter Of Sept. 30
The whig candidate for Governor has put himself
boldly forward as an advocate of soil He will secure
the abolition vote; he will secure il the information
of the compromising in Wilmot's district be correctly
portion Of the democratic barnburners he will
the mass of the natives The Governors election in
lS47, shows the following result -
Plurality of Governor skunk. .......... Ii 916
Native vote for Reigart .....,. II POI 90.
peductins the sSotionsts and the natives from the
democratic plurality of AT, and adding them to the
wings of '4S and allowing in other respects the par
ties stand the same the wings have to tt
elect their Governor majority Of 5000 against them
But Skunk was, perhaps, more popular man thar
Lopgstreth then there is Get forth the detection
Of T. bar nburners and there assertions in
the iron counties. the tariff question. And it Ii
these incidentals which alarm the Pennsyiranian
the wings.
There is on the other side counteracting steadi-
nees Of action among the democrats in the mass,
warrantipg the presumption that neither any all
these combined elements of subtraction and defec
ton will further than the immediate loss, affect the
unity ofthe party It is evident that the fight is on
the side of the democrats to hold their own while the
object of the wings and their expectations to in
crease their vote to majority.
Giving to Johnston the native and abolition vote,
have shown that he has but 5000 majority to
come; and If the assertions from the democrats on
the tariff question and upon the Wilmot rupture shall
but subtract but 5000 votes in all the State, from
Longstreth, then the wing candidate will be elected.
But opinion is, that he viii not get these 5000
votes We may be deceived. Causes, unanticipated d,
and provided for-causes silently operating upon
the minds of the peoPle-an increase to one party
from the thousands Of young who will cast their
first votes this fall and relative loss to the other
a rainy day-a Of these causes or any of them, may
sect the result by thousands Of votes, either upon
one side the other. But, from the lights before
from the testimony Of preceding elections, and from
the apparent temper Of the people to the extent
elected Governor; though our estimates and our
evidence will not allow him more than 1000 or 1000
majority.
party, TO show positively expressed opinion OF
PENNSYLVANIA based upon better data, and APP
proxima,ing closely to the result, as the opinion
above expressed. No man supposed that Paynter
would get larger vote than Longstreth- no man
can believe that Paynter got single wing vote
and vet he is elected by some two thousand ma
jority; so that in the face of all the doubts OF the
canvass, we only fell short thousand votes Of
the actual votes cast OF the two parties, amounting
IN the aggregate 10 perhaps 900 600 ballots pOlleC
IN the election.
With all the new elements thrown into this can
vass, and the new and doubtful complexion giveI
TO The contest, we challenge any man to show
deliberate opinion given, more nearly approachin!
the result than that OF ours OF the Both OF Septem
Der last.
As regards the election OF November, il mus
first be ascerianed what the free soilers Of Penn
sylvania rnie nd to do They have force Ill AL
leeheney county which they estimate al 3,00t
votes: that county gives some 2 200 wing maorlt,
they claim vote of thousand in Erie, another
strong wing county, and they expect some thou
sands Of the Quake To unite with them IN and
around Philadelphia. With all these materials
subtracted TO very large extent from
The wing party, At the free soilels can preserve
their separate strel 9Th for Van Buren,, the most
that The wings can hope from the movement, Is
that the subtraction OF the barnburhers from the
democrats, will neutrali:e the loss OF the two
parties on this question. But there is prosp,cI
tina, the fee solleis will be almost entirely alb.
sorbcd by the wings and democrats and as the