Vermont watchman and State journal. [volume] (Montpelier, Vt.) 1836-1883, 1848-03-16


money market, must perpetuate this state of
things
Sir, have been comparing the estimated re-.
ceiptS 70. the current year with those of the last
have remarked that in these calculations the
data are derived from the results Of the past, from
the estimates Of previous years and have re-
marked, further, that during the year 1S47 a
great part Of the receipts consists Of returns
which properly belong TO former period. Now,
ask, on what ordinary calculations, in view Of
these circumstances, the honorable Secretary
raises his estimates of the receipts from twenty
four, the actual receipts last year, to thirtyone
millions Of dollars? What considerations fur
nish basis for such calculation?
have taken some pains to ascertain how the
honorable Secretary arrives at it. 1t is this =
he takes IN the first place the receipts for the
first quarter, for the months of July, August and
September. These are precisely the months in
which we are getting returns for our breadstu1s.
He hen proceeds to tell US that, assuming the
revehue on the first quarter to be an average of
the year, the proceeds from customs for the
whole year will amount to forty five Millions
1t is enough TO say of this calculation that the
honorable Secretary himself dscards il as the
basis OF an estimate. Being dissatisfied with
this result, he proceeds to ascertain the relative
proportion of the revenue of the first quarter of
the year as compared with the revenue Of the
year for a series of years. He thus ascertains
lldI tiie hist quarter is te HOSt productive, anu,
by reducing his estimates in proportion he brings
his calculations down to forty-mions instead Of
forty live. But he is still dissatisfied. The
next step is to ascertain the revenue for the five
months next previous TO the LIST of December,
l547, which he tells us amounts to $l5,506257,
or little over $3000,000 per month. Estimat-
ing the revenue for the twelve months at that
rate (mokng probably an allowance for n" 80.
, y. p,vuucuveness OF the first q1arter) he would
make the revenue Of the year amount to $685.
100000 But he is not satisfied with this
What next? He ascertains the receipts for the
last two months of the five, viz; October and
November, to be S2,20O0O0 per month; and es.
Inmates the receipts for the residue OF the fiscal
year at that rate To this he adds the actual re-
ceipts OF The first quarter, and it gives about
S3l 100000 for the year, as will be seen by the
following tables
Actual receipts for the five months
ending December |, lS47, $l5506,257
Receipts for the first quarter as per
annual report deducted, ll,lO6,257
Leaves for October and November, 100000
(Or an av. of 2, 200 900 per MOI
EstTg 9 mo. at that av. 100000, 19,S00,0O0
Add actual receipts of first Or. 11,IO6,257
Gives for the year, 3O9O6,257
Here you have the basis of the estimates Of
the honorable Secretary.
Now, the Secretary finds his receipts rapidly
declining because the importations are declin-
ing. 1t appears, as heretofore stated, that the
receipts for the first quarter of the current year
amount to Sll, 1O6,257, or equal to 3,702, 065 per
month. The receipts for October and Novem-
Der are equal 10 $22OO,000 .per month Thus
we have falling off during the first five months
OF the fiscal year from S3,7020S5, for July, Au
gust and September, 10 100000, the average
OF October, or falling off 100000 per month";
is 1t not apparent to every Senator who hears
Inc that this decline must continue? Is it not
apparent that there is an overstock of goods in
the country, and is 1t not well known that the
scarcity of money has induced importers to coun-
, termand their orders for goods? Sir, we have it
from the very best authority
{ Under these circumstances, although there
may be great influx of revenue during the first
quarter of the year, it is apparent that it is the
mere effect Of the accumulation of revenue in
that quarter, for the reasons | have mentioned.
The very fact that your imports, and, consequent
t y your revenue, are increased in one portion of
the year, must lead you to expect that it will de-
cline in the other portions.
, Now, ask, on what principle is it expected
? that the amount of the revenue from imports this
year will exceed that of the last? Sir, the true
rule OF comparison would be to take the fiscal
? year, and that for the very reason that have
/ already assigned. The tariff of 1916 covers the
{ fiscal year ending LIST of July ls47, although it
{ went into effect in December, because the pay
f ment OF duties was in great measure suspend
: ed during the intervening time between the pas
sage OF this act and the time OF it's going into op
Grafton. Well, sir, will not pursue this branch
: of the subject.
+. What is The next ground of the honorable Sec
/ retary's estimates? He estimates three and
half millions as the proceeds of the sales of the
a public lands. Well, sir, during the past year
a your sales did not reach two millions and half
: Upon what theory, then, is il that the Secretary
estimates one million more from the receipts for
public lands than was actually received last year
q have yet to learn. 1t is point which am not
: prepared to discuss, because can see no reason
at all for such an estimate; and unless reasons
J, are presented from some other quarter shall
i. still be incredulous. | deduct therefore, one
million from the estimated receipts from the pub
s lie lands, because the estimate exceeds all ex-
perience, and because no reason has been as
# signed, and none in my Judgment can be as
= signed for it. That makes eight millions to be
= deducted from the Secretary's estimate of reve-
nue. for the current year lS47-o, and to be added
e to the estimate of deficiency.
Il The next item is an over estimate of the reye-
: nue. from the customs for the year ending June,
1919. have very little to say in regard to this
merely refer to the fact that the revenue hav-
i ing fallen of, | cannot perceive upon what cal
= culatlon II Is that, IN tue peculiar condton OF
the country, the revenue from the customs is to
o rise 10 81 millions for the ensuing year. The
present state of the country renders 1t impossible
: and as to any change, have not seen the slight
h est prospect of it. Well, sir take the Secreta-
!. ry's estimates, and must deduct eight millions
r from his estimated receipts from customs for the
!. year ending June, lS49. l then take the esti-
:, mate of the receipts from public lands for the
a coming year, which he has given to us as three
c millions, and ask upon what basis does this es-
o innate rest? Do we not all know that We have
' granted land bounties to soldiers to the ex-
5 tent Of at least seventy thousand, which will
d cover twelve millions OF acres OF your public
4 lands? Your average sales are but two and a
4 half millions annually, and you have actually
thrown into the market in bounties to your SOL
diers enough to cover at this average an amount
b of sales for five years Now, under these cir
5 cImstances, when land warrants are thrown a.
broad over the country sufficient to cover five
9 years sales, we are presented with grave cal
0 cuaton OF an increase of million of dollars
7 from this source. Time may possibly bring this
, about The Secretary Of the Treasury may De
able to further than the rest ofus; but wheth'
/ er it may be brought about or not, IN my humble
4 Judgment such an estimate is not TO De consider