The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1846-11-02

ing again out of order-that is, cut.
The safest way is for no holder of flour, &c, 10
sell Until he sees the Extra Herald.
The Cotton Crop OF the United States-The
Production and Consumption.
There is at present every indication of an ex-
tensive speculative movement in cotton, both in
this country and in,Europe. Prices have already
reached n very high point, and II becomes mat
ter of much importance to all classes, whether
they will continue to advance, whether they have
reached their maximum, or whether there is any
probability OF any reduction from the present
standard The settlement of these points would
be very desirable thing; but there are many
conflicting accounts that it is impossible TO reach
any satisfactory result
In relation 10 the growing crop, the season has
advanced sufficiently TO settle the fact that the
yield will be several hundred thousand bales be-
low the average of the last three years, and prices
for the raw material, therefore, depend solely
upon the extent of the demand for consumption.
In anticipation of short supply, spectators will
of course monopolise as much as possible, and
may Tor a time have very great influence upon
prices such an influence of itself, cannot but be
temporary, and will soon run itself out but this,
in connection with demand for actual consump-
ton, beyond the supply, must have tendency to
initiate prices very rapidly, and to sustain any in
hation which may be produced.
In relation to the supply of the raw material, it
becomes necessary TO examine all the sources
from which receipts can be expected, for the pur-
pose of settling upon some estimate of supply, in
comparison with the probable consumption. We
have received many communications from ano-
fipU he dam md
ply; but as there is such an immense interest at
stake regarding this staple, and as these com
munications come from parties Interested in
favor of, and against high prices we have
made it rule to refuse giving place to any of
them. The two great parties in speculation, use
every effort to give currency to their own views;
the shortcrop operators, and the long crop opera
tors, appear equally sanguine of the strength of
their position, and it is very difficult to get at
correct result, amidst the movements of these ri
val interests. Very great allowances should he
made for reports emanating from any quarter,
and if spectators abroad would be more careful
in crediting statements, even from private cores
pondents on this side, there would not be so ma
NY explosions among this class of operators, and
the business would not be subject to those ruinous
fluctuations, which have ever characterized it,
We do not feel disposed at present to hazard
aoy opinion in relation to the supply of the raw
material in this country. There is very little
doubt but that the yield will be less than that of
the last crop, but how much less no human being
can tell. The mania for putting forth estimates,
long before the plant has matured, has done a
vast deal ofinjury, and lead many into specula-
tons which they would otherwise have avoided.
1t gratifying, however, to see, even at this late
day, that all estimates are looked upon with sus-
pcion, and spectators in Europe place very little
reliance upon them.
High prices for cotton bring out every bale
in the hands of producers. In times of scarcity,
the picking is very thorough and that which would
in other season be hardly worth collecting, is care
fully gathered and sent to market. In this way
the supply proves tosbe much larger than the con-
dition of the growing crop would warrant us in
believing Every one engaged in the trade must
recolect the "storm cotton" which was so plenty
, in the market about three years since, and we
have no doubt there will be something similar
among the receipts of this crop. While high
prices bring out everything in the shape of cotton,
they have tendency to check consumption,
which goes great way towards cfsetting the
effect Of short crop. Our accounts from Eng
land of the 4th of October, state that the weekly
consumption of American cotton for tie two
months previous TO that time, had been about one
thousand bales less than it had been previous to
that time, and that the manufacturers were using
more Surat than they were in the habit of doing.
The manufacturers were producing thinner and
lighter goods, and were in every way more eco
nomcal in the use OF the raw material. We have
no doubt the consumption throughout Great Bn-
TAI will he in he "a lses
than last There are other things tending
TO reduction of the consumption OF cotton in
Europe, besides high prices for the raw material,
and that is the high prices for breadstufis and
provisions This will require an advance in the
price of labor, to place the consuming classes
upon level with their past condition, or a reduc-
ton in the time of labor. A great decrease in the
home consumption of British manufactures, will
be the result OF the present state of things, which,
in connection with the abundant supply OF ia
brics already in all the foreign markets, must
have tendency to restrict the manufacture OF
cotton goods this year, very materially.
In view of all these facts we come to the con-
cusion that there causes operating against the
consumption of cotton, which will tend to mode
rate prices and prevent speculation from running
riot. The supply OF the raw material is likely TO
DO fully equal to the demand for consumption,
even in the event OF our crop proving to be much
less than that of last year. BY referring to our
last files Of English papers, we notice consider
able stress placed upon the large supply OF
Surat cotton in warehouses in India. Ii is stated
by some, that nearly three entire crops have ac-
cumulated there, in consequence of the former
low price of the American cotton, and its supe-
rior ceanlness-by some, the amount is stated at
6O0,Oo0 bales, and 10y others larger figures, run
ming up to 100000 bales Reference is also
made to cargoes, expected in England, from adj
vices which went forward three months ago
this will have material effect on the stock in
Liverpool, and consequently on prices.