Burlington free press. [volume] (Burlington, Vt.) 1827-1865, 1846-09-18
From the Edingburgh New Philosophical journal.
Arago on the Weather.


is it possible in the present stntc of our knowl-
edge, to forctel what Weather il will be mt a
given time and place Have we reason, at
all events. to expect that this problem will
one day be solved BY Mr. Arago, Perpetual
Secretary of the French Academy of Scen-
ccs, &c, &c.
Engaged AS J am, both from inclination and
duty, in meteorological studies. | have often
asked myself if we should ever bc able, by a re-
ference to Astronomical considerations, TO de-
tcrmne, a year in Alliance, what shall be the
state. in given place, OF the annual temper
allure. the temperatures each month"; the guam
titles of rain compared y, th The ordinary mean,
the prevailing Winds &c.
have already laid before the readers of the
Annuaire the results of the Investigations I'M
dcrtaken by the natural philosophers and astro-
nolncrs, regarding the influence of the moon
and OF comets on the changes of the weather.
These results clearly show, in my opinion that
the influences of both these bodies arc almost
insensiblc, and, therefore, that the prediction of
the weather can never be branch of astronomy.
properly so called. And yet our satellite and
comets have. at all periods, been considered as
preponderating stars in metcorology.
Since the publication Of these opinions, have
regarded the problem in another aspect. have
considered whether the operations of man. and
occurrences which will always remain beyond
the r,nco of our foresight, mGht moi hp of such
II nature as to modify climates accidentally, and
in very sensible manner. in particular with
regard to temperature. already perceive that
facts will answer in the affirmative. | should
have wished, however, not to publish this re-
suit till after ! had finished my investigations !:
o"' n".. ,a''N om, ua. i.;I,T.. ~ n;a'
tho nrnJ;c,;nn. which b,vo eyorv voor hnen ,t-
tributed to me. both in France and in other
countries. Never has word escaped INV lips.
either in private or in the course which have
delivered for upwards ofthrty wears never has
a line published with my consent. authorized
any one to imagine it to be nv opinion that it is
possbc. in the present state of our knowledge.
to announce. with any degree of certainty. what
weather it will be year. a month, week. |
shall even add. single day. in advance MAY
the indignation have felt at seeing multitude
of ridiculous predictions appear under INV name
not constrain me- by the force of reaction. to
give an exaggerated degree of importance to
the disturbing causes have enumerated AT
present. believe that am in condition to de-
ducc from my investigations the important re-
suit which now announce. Whatever NAV be
the progress of science, never will observers
vino are trlist-wortllv. and careful of their re-
putation, venture to foretell the state of the
weather.
] repeat that the readers Of the Annuaire
ought not to expect 10 find here a complete in.
vcstigation of the problems which have taken
M. My sole intention is - Law before them a
few facts, which, taken in competition with those
which Shaii annlyzg IN second notice, ap
I pear to me 10 read To TINS conclusion.
Ba~ee" "haf hmhS NE hedn temperatures o
yearS end months rary in or ciinates
| The metcorolorical state of pivon nl,ce i.
much loss variable Than those woud he lodi tr
| brlicyc who udue of I, bv their pcrsonal scnsa
t;nns. bv yaruc rccollections. or the condition
of tbc crons Tins at paris tho moan tom
pcrnture of wears r,nrcs within vcrv narrow
limits.
/ The animal mean ,emrera,urc of Paris from
lsO6 to 1890; inclusive has becn canal to 10 :
3 ccn,ipr,dc G1o + Fairy The greatest n
d annual means dons moi cxceed the gencro
mean by more than : q 70 az y the low
est Of the mean animal temnera,ures has hoo,
found below the uonc,al mean only bv : A
(oo 5F0 As far as relates to mean unnua
Temperatures. systematic mcteorolopists have
therefore. no need of foresight 10 nrcdct onl,
slirh, pertnrbations. Thc causes ofdisturlanc,
will satisfy all tho nbenomepa if they can nro
ducc. more or less : & of centgrade yaria
tion. (ao.7 ' u N's '''''' '"''''
II is no, the same with rccard 70 the months
The differences bo,,vnon rho General means an,
the Martial means. cx,cnd in January and DE
cember. to 4 and ccntigrade degrees. re
toqo FN
In consequence of tbese variations. if w
co,npsre the extreme temneratures of each mont
with the moan mr. normal temperatures of all TN
| shall find