Port Tobacco times, and Charles County advertiser. (Port Tobacco, Md.) 1845-1898, 1846-03-26
COAI M u MIC TON.
PROGRESS OF POPULATION-No. H.

geOmetrlcal law of pTogressIon, taken on the
scale and in the manner in achich the COM
mittee haze employed them, will give any
thing like accurate results for the progress
sive population of any community, small or
large"
The first thing to be noticed, is the mar
rowness of the foundation on which they
have erected SO prodigous an ediice. Sys-
TENS are usually built on great number of
settled data, carefully collected, connected
and compared; and even the slenderest
theory might be expected to rest on at least
four corner.stones of fact. But the COM
mittee have raised theory on one solitary
fact! This fact is, that during the last half
century the white and free-black population
have increased or decreased to given ex-
tent. Hence they infer that a relative in
crease or decrease in the same proportion
will take place respectively in the next two
half-centuries also, confidently remarking
that 'Eno man can refute their estimates, be-
cause they have already proved themselves
true for the last fifty years" But their in
ference is as manifest a non sequitur from
the premises as was ever penned. Why,
eUery Thing that happens ''proves itself true"
for that one time, by the very fact of its
happening but an event must occur often
and uniformly before it can be regarded as
zaac. Otherwise every accident would be
but the commencement Of a series of peri
odical occurrences, and a miracle itself,
which is onl y an exception, would be the
first link in an endless chain of repetends.
Had they divided the last so years into 5
periods of 10 years each, and shown that
in each Of those 5 periods, and with some
thing like uniformity, certain law of in
crease or decrease had proved itself true
with the whites, and a certain other law
with the free blacks through the several
counties of this State, they would then have
had five past events on which to predicate
the future-fve fixed facts, each illustrating
and strengthening the other. But when
from one unsupported fact in the past the
committee infer two facts for the future,
their reasoning is as if we should say ::
There was three-days' snowstorm at the
close of the last winter; therefore there
will be three-days' snowstorm at the close
of every winter till the year 1910. The
correctness of this inference no man can
confute for it has already proved itself
true by the experience of Che last winter J"
But to proceed. An arihmetical law of
progress is in no case applicable to the in
crease or decrease of population or, if ever,
it is only temporarily and by pure chance.
This will be made obvious by reference to
any series Of censuses for any city, county,
or State in this or in any nation. For in
stance, the popular increase in England for
three successive periods Of 10 years each
from 1901 to 1881 was-1st, 100000 );
I'd, 1,710,000; Sd, $4,000: that Of Wales,
lst, 10000; I'd, 100000; Sd, $4,000: that
of Pennsylvania, for 5 periods, from 1890
to 1S4O-1st, 10000; Cd, 2O9,OOO; Sd,
$4,000; 4th, $4,000; 9Th, $4,000: that
Of Virginia, LIST, $4,000; Cd, $4,000; Sd,
$1,000; 18th, $4,000; 9Th, 38000: and
finally that of Maryland, 1st, $4,000; I'd,
$4,000; Sd, $4,000; 4th, 10000; 9th, 49,,
900. These instances, taken entirely at
random, sufficiently prove that population
does not increase by the law Of arithmeti-
cal progression-that is, by successive and
equal additions. In fact the progress of
population is, of its own nature, an increase
upon an increase, and is evidently analogous
to the law of Compound Interest, which is
nothing more than geometrical progression
by lower or higher ratio. But although
this is the natural law of increase with the
human species, when unimpeded by sur
rounding causes, it will not do to estimate
the increase of any community without
great consideration of the circumstances of
the case. Attention must be paid to the
extent of emigration or immigration, to the
condition of society, to the natural capabi-
ities Of the soil, and to many other points.
1t would be very incorrect to apply one and
the same rate Of increase to the infancy and
age of young city or newly-settled
State. Their first growth springs mostly
from immigration, and rises in geometri-
cal ratio SO rapid that, were ii long contin-
ued, there would be no room left for ano-
her footprint on the soil. The applica-
ion of the same princi pie for a series of
periods would soon conduct us to absurdi-
tIes of the same stamp, but Of more mon
~lrous growth, than those which the COM
nittee have arrived at. They conclude that
Baltimore will have swelled in less than a
century to 500 times its present size, and
contain more than six times as many free
negroes alone as was the entire population
ever assigned to Rome by the most extra