The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1846-04-29


CosrnxRcur REVIEW After the depression Of
the last three months, il is not to be wondered at
that there is tendency In the commercial world to
receive with something more than hope, any sign,
however small, OF an approaching revival OF trade.
The prevailing inactivity is undoubtedly due to a
combination Of causes, some OF which, as always Is
the case, will not be thoroughly understood till they
are examined with the greater GOODNESS and fuller
information OF the future. Foremost stands the
high price Of TODD, here and on the continent The
delay of the measures proposed by the Legislature
for mitigating the evil, by making its duration and
ultimate effect IN this country very uncertain adds
to this cause the utmost exaggeration OF which 1t is
susceptible. lmprovident speculation in railway
schemes, and the consequent diversion OF capital
from its ordinary channels, comes in aid OF the dis
tress and is also helped in its effects by the legsla
ture some eight or ten millions OF the floating
capital Of the country being thrown by law into the
hands of the Bank of England, there to await the
issue of further legislation. Thus the incubus
which now presses upon the energies OF the country
assumes practically the aspect OF an ordinary dis
turbance OF mercantile operations by general rise
in the price oil food, with the uctuatlon and uncer-
tainty always attending such disturbance, and the
REIMBURSEMENT Of commercial affairs upon a new
footing, enormously aggravated by the concurrent
decline of a speculative mania, and the announce
ment and protracted postponement In Parliament OF
measures which must ultimately pass. and when
they do may be expected materially to affect all COM
mercial transactions OF an extensive character.
But the immediate cause OF suffering, and the one
most universally felt and complained OF, is the un-
certainty that hangs over the future. No man can
see the probable issue OF any new engagement, or
even of those by which he is already bound So
far existing circumstances have occurred before,
experience Is guide But they are all bound up IN
shall venture to predict the event OF that? In such
state OF things, even the certainty that Parliament
will do nothing for three weeks a relief. Accord
inQly, with the near approach of the Easter holi-
days, we see here and there throughout the
country partial resumption OF activity. But
this must not be mistaken tor more than it Is There
s time when men must cease to hold large stocks
in the hope of recovery Of prices The expediency
OF holding is question of tme, for even under the
most favorable circumsta nces Its cost IL measured
by the interest OF the capital it locks up He who
bears up under given pressure tor three months,
while relief may never be ten days OH, may, and
probably will, give way at once before the prospect
of certain delay for even three weeks. But the fall
Of prices, and the temporary inactivity which en-
under such circumstances, Is no cause for con-
graduation 1t 10 but another movement In the down.
ward course. 1t marks stage in IT, but not Its ter
mination In short il proves, not that the pressure
diminishing, but that can bear II no longer.
The result may, and probably will, be TO relieve
markets for the present. and BY adjusting the stream
OF commerce more nearly to its narrowed channels
to restore an apparent equanmty; but, as to those
Immediately concerned, the operation is rather TO
be described as an abandonment OF hope than as a
revival of it, The truth is, that with the exception
OF some few transactions, such as purchases for ex-
por,prompted by considerable reduction Of prices,
made to get rid Of accommodating stocks, the markets
OF the great manufacturing districts in the north and
west OF England are more generally and truly de-
pressed than they have been at any time since the
commencement OF the present year.
We need scarcely say that the change apparent in
the last weekly account published by the Bank OF
England, showing an increase In the circulation OF
about ES86 0OO after constant decrease extending
over the previous seven weeks,is no symptom what
ever of revival of trade Ii Is one OF the most con-
stent features of these accounts TO exhibit such an
increase shortly before the period for the payment
Of dividends and after the circulation had reached its
lowest point of the current quarter. In the present
instance, the increase has been postponed rather
beyond the usual period. And any comparison OF
the present amount of the circulation with Its
amount at past and corresponding periods, only fur
nlshes additional evidence of the extent and sever
iy of the existing depre ssion. II, for instance, we
take the returns made immediately previous TO the
quarterly payments OF dividends, since the result OF
the harvest gave the first check to the commercial
prosperity OF last year, we find that though there
has been very large increase in the amount ad
vanced by the bank upon securities, there has been
progressive dImiIuton in the amount OF her notes
(and post bllls) in circulation =
Cir. inclu- Total Sec'ties Secfies other
diurB in Banking IAN