Tornado outbreak and floods of April 2–6, 2025

From April 2–6, 2025, a slow-moving weather system caused both a widespread and major tornado outbreak as well as causing historic and life-threatening flash flooding that affected much of the Southern and Midwestern United States. On April 2, a tornado struck Owasso, Oklahoma, causing damage to homes. A significant tornado struck Nevada, Missouri, removing roofs from homes and injuring at least one person. An EF2 tornado struck Pilot Grove, Missouri, destroying a manufactured home and tossing cars. The tornado sirens in the town did not sound due to a malfunction, though no-one was hurt. A large, multiple-vortex tornado of at least EF3 intensity moved through the city of Lake City in Arkansas, prompting the issuance of a tornado emergency. At least one person was killed by a tornado that struck Advance and Delta in Missouri, leaving significant damage to homes. In the early morning hours of April 3, a tornado of at least EF3 intensity struck the city of Selmer, Tennessee, while another supercell produced a significant tornado near Slayden, Mississippi, prompting the issuance of another tornado emergency. Near La Grange, Tennessee, six people were killed and 21 others were injured when a tornado destroyed a mobile home.
So far, at least 62 tornadoes have been confirmed with surveys ongoing. Due to multiple rounds of severe weather hitting the same areas as well as staff cuts at NOAA, some tornado surveys had to be delayed for several days.
Starting on March 28, 2025, the Storm Prediction Center began monitoring the risk of a severe weather event on April 2. Following a lack of expected severe potential the previous day, strong moisture return and the development of an upper-level system was discussed, with a 15% risk for severe weather being outlined over much of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The next day, as forecast models came into greater agreement about the mode and timing of the system, a 30% risk was introduced over parts of Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, with forecasters describing that confidence existed for "a widespread, potentially substantial severe event". On March 30, the forecast was expanded to include parts of Texas, Louisiana, and Michigan in the risk area, as forecasted shear would support a primarily supercell-focused storm mode.
Three days out from the event, on the morning of March 31, an enhanced (3/5) risk was outlined over an area overlapping the previous 30% zone, now also including small parts of Oklahoma, Iowa, and Alabama, while now covering the majority of Kentucky, Illinois, Arkansas, and Indiana. The system, now described as a negatively-tilted trough, was expected to produce a widespread outbreak of severe weather over the region. A large warm sector over the Great Lakes region, a powerful jet streak of 100 kn (120 mph; 190 km/h), and an intense cold front, were all expected to contribute to the event, with the forecast outlining the risk for significant tornadoes, strong wind, and large hail. A higher risk category for the forecast was discussed over the middle Mississippi Valley, fueled by the threat of "multiple long-lived significant supercells", but was ultimately decided against due to a lack of confidence in how the storm system would develop throughout the day.
An outlook on April 1 introduced a moderate (4/5) risk over small parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, and Indiana, driven by the threat of "significant to intense tornadoes", as outlined in updated model guidance. Due to significantly less uncertainty regarding the development of the storms, the Storm Prediction Center issued a high risk (5/5) convective outlook over southern Illinois, eastern Missouri, western Kentucky and Tennessee, eastern Arkansas, and extreme northwest Mississippi for "multiple EF3+ tornadoes".
A mid-level trough was positioned over the central United States and will move northeastward, while at the surface, a strong surface cyclone will move through the upper Mississippi Valley, accompanied by a jet streak ejection of 120 knots (140 mph; 220 km/h), while a cold front moves through much of the region. A moist airmass was moving into the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley region, which was expected to rapidly destabilize throughout the day while convection along the cold front continued. MLCAPE, a measure of atmospheric instability, was forecast to reach 2,500–3,500 J/kg in the middle Mississippi Valley, while a rapid ejection of the mid-level jet will bring strong ascent into the warm sector, conducive for intense storm development. The initiation of discrete storms was initially expected to occur east of the cold front inside of an unstable airmass, a region expected to – around 4 to 7 p.m. CDT – harbor around 400 m/s of storm-relative helicity in the first 3 kilometers of the atmosphere, alongside deep-layer shear of 60 knots. These conditions will be conducive to the development of discrete tornadic supercells, the strongest of which were expected to be capable of producing intense (EF3–EF5) tornadoes. Multiple intense tornadoes were forecasted throughout the evening. More supercells, potentially producing tornadoes, were outlined as a risk in the southern Ozarks and lower Ohio River valley.
More supercells, focused on the threat of strong winds exceeding 70 mph (110 km/h) and large hail exceeding 2 in (5.1 cm) were expected to develop in the region extending from Texas through the Great Lakes region, which were expected to develop bowing line segments producing further severe wind gusts as storms develop. Atmospheric recovery across the Red River valley in Texas may support further supercells producing large hail after the main event concludes in the region.
Linear convection from the previous day persisted after midnight, with embedded supercells within the line posing a threat for tornadic activity due to the strongly sheared and destabilizing atmosphere over parts of Kansas and Missouri. At 2 a.m., a surface-based cold front was still present, positioned from central Kansas towards Texas' southern plains, moving southeast. As moisture entered central Oklahoma, fueled by a strong southwesterly jet and steep mid-level lapse rates, the capped environment would erode, which would create an environment conducive towards surface convection, including supercells capable of producing large hail and tornadoes. Later on, at 4:30 a.m., as the line had migrated further east ahead of the cold front, forecasters noted that the potential for embedded supercells capable of wind, hail, and tornadoes, was increasing over much of Missouri and bordering regions of Kansas, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Shortly before 7 a.m., storms had been moving across Oklahoma, with a storm in the northeastern part of the state attaining a supercellular structure, producing a brief tornadic debris signature in the vicinity of Tulsa and Rogers counties. The line of storms moved parallel to the cold front into a region with an atmospheric capping inversion, which reduced the threat of further organization. Over central Missouri, a "somewhat messy storm mode" near the cold front moved towards an area marked by a relatively stable and capped atmosphere, which reduced the risk of severe hazards by 7:17 a.m.
Elevated storms had developed over parts of Ohio and Illinois, which produced a minor threat for hail and damaging winds throughout the later morning hours Further south, in northeastern Texas and surrounding areas, storms had begun forming on a pre-frontal confluence in an area with a minor capping inversion and moderate instability levels around 2500j/kg. As these storms developed, the hazard of hail and strong tornadoes was noted by forecasters, despite the uncertainty of timing and ability to overcome the cap.
The day prior to the outbreak, the Storm Prediction Center outlined an Enhanced (3/5) risk over much of Arkansas and bordering regions of Oklahoma, Texas, and Missouri, as a surface cyclone was forecasted to develop over northeastern Texas or southeastern Oklahoma, which would move to the northeast, moving a warm sector into much of Arkansas and into far southern Missouri. Diurnal heating, alongside a growingly unstable atmosphere, strong shear, and forecasted storm-relative helicity values of 400 ms over the region, were forecasted to support supercells, potentially producing strong tornadoes. Elevated convection along a cold front moving over Texas was also forecasted to pose a threat for large hail. A second outlook that day outlined a Moderate (4/5) risk over much of the same regions, with forecasters now outlining MLCAPE instability values between 2500 and 3500 j/kg over a frontal zone, which was expected to develop strong supercells capable of potentially strong tornadoes as the evening progressed. A conditional threat for strong, long-tracked tornadoes was also outlined ahead of the frontal zone. Despite weak forcing ahead of the frontal zone, strong MUCAPE instability values of 3000 to 4000 j/kg were forecasted to be conducive to the threat of discrete supercell development and the hazard of intense to violent tornadoes.-->
A large, multiple-vortex wedge tornado of at least EF3 intensity prompted the issuance of a tornado emergency as it touched down and passed near Lake City late on April 2. The tornado initially formed east of Jonesboro. It tracked northeast, destroying five homes and narrowly missing the city of Monette. This area had previously been hit by an EF4 tornado in December 2021. The tornado also prompted the issuance of two tornado emergencies for Monette and Leachville. NWS surveys have paused due to severe weather. Preliminary information.
A tornado struck Jeffersontown and Eastwood on April 2, causing damage to multiple businesses and apartments in Jeffersontown. A two-story daycare building had its roof ripped off, and five businesses in a strip of offices lost their roof. The headquarters of Papa John's, an American pizza restaurant chain, suffered minor damage from the tornado. Further damage occurred to a building for J&J Transportation, where most of the building was destroyed and "at least 10" tractor trailers were damaged. Despite significant damage in Jeffersontown, the National Weather Service office in Louisville announced that surveys would be delayed until early the following week. WLKY reported that the event was most likely a tornado, and that FEMA had been deployed to Jeffersontown.
A large tornado of at least EF3 intensity prompted the issuance of a PDS tornado warning as it struck the city of Selmer, killing at least six people. NWS surveys have paused due to ongoing severe weather.
A large and destructive wedge tornado struck the towns of Slayden, Mississippi and Grand Junction, Tennessee, prompting the issuance of the second tornado emergency of the outbreak early on April 3. Debris was reportedly lofted 20,000 feet (6,100 m) into the air. A preliminary survey assigned this tornado an EF3 rating; surveys have been suspended due to severe weather.
Multiple rounds of severe storms produced widespread flooding in parts of Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, and Tennessee. In the state of Michigan, around 2–3 in (51–76 mm) of rain fell, breaking records. Fort Wayne, Indiana picked up over 1 in (25 mm) of rain, ending the second longest 1+” drought on record. Multiple flash flood emergencies were issued including one in Memphis on April 5 during the afternoon and the first ever issued for Little Rock, Arkansas in the morning due to persistent storms.
In La Moure, North Dakota, a COCORAHS observer reported a 48-hour snowfall total of 12 in (30 cm) between April 2 and 3. Around 3–5 in (7.6–12.7 cm) of snow fell in west central Minnesota.
Municipal siren tests in Columbus, Ohio and Little Rock, Arkansas were canceled on April 2 due to expected severe weather. Ahead of the storm, Kentucky governor Andy Beshear issued a state of emergency ahead of the April 2 tornado outbreak and flooding in the state. He stated that no fatalities had been confirmed in the state.
After the storms, The Y'all Squad, headed by weather presenter, YouTuber, TikToker, and Internet personality Ryan Hall, deployed aid trucks to Tennessee and Arkansas.
Following staff cuts to NOAA, the National Weather Service office in Louisville, Kentucky, announced they would not be conducting tornado damage surveys until early the next week after the outbreak. On April 4, Bloomberg and Axios reported that the website of the National Severe Storms Laboratory, which runs forecast models, and various other websites and systems used in the delivery of warnings, were set to be shut down at midnight on April 5 as a result of contract terminations at NOAA and a directive to NOAA to cut all IT-related spending by 50%. This was later pushed back to July 31, following a renewal of a contract with Amazon Web Services.
The National Weather Service Office in Memphis issued a Public Information Statement on April 4, announcing that due to the lack of bandwidth caused by high staff workloads, the issuance of severe weather statements for non-severe storms would be suspended temporarily, ahead of that day's severe weather event. The posting of local storm reports was also put on hold due to a "tremendous backlog", with the decision being made to have reports be posted in bulk to avoid outdated information in a "chaotic operational environment".