Democratic backsliding in Ethiopia

Democratic backsliding in Ethiopia is ongoing, most notably under the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Since he assumed power in April 2018, Ahmed has played a crucial role in reforms in Ethiopian politics and the reversal of policies implemented by the former ruling party, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). Abiy immediately gained public approval and international recognition owing to liberalized policymaking, including in media outlets, gender equality, internet freedom, and privatization of the economy. Further, he was also warmly praised for ending the 20-year conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, for which he was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize—being the first Ethiopian to earn the title. In 2019, Ethiopia received a score of 19 out of 100 in the Freedom in the World metric, a significant improvement from previous years, although it is still characterized as "Not Free". In December 2019, he formed the Prosperity Party by the dissolution of EPRDF and merged all its ethnic-based regional parties while the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) refused to obey, resulting intense face-off with the federal government. He promised to hold a free and fair upcoming election; however, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, deterioration, and other security and logistics issues, the election was postponed indefinitely in mid-2020. Opponents called this action a backdrop to "reconsolidate dictatorship" and "constitutional crisis". On 9 September 2020, the Tigray Regional election was held in what the federal government deemed an illegal election. According to the electoral commission, the TPLF won 98.2% of the 152 seats that were contested. The federal government and the Tigray authority's relations were aggravated by late 2020, culminating in the Tigray War.
Domestically, democracy has been eroded since the rise of armed conflicts in the country. Abiy's government declined to execute public order, and political persecution sporadically appeared by 2021. As of June 2022, 18 journalists and dissidents were jailed for allegedly disseminating misinformation to "undermine his government". By 2021, 46 journalists were detained, making Ethiopia the worst jailer in Africa, with many subjected to forced disappearance.
Short after assumption as Prime Minister in 2018, Abiy Ahmed overwhelmingly praised by international community and gained unprecedented support by Ethiopians and diaspora community for democratic reforms including releasing political prisoners mostly journalists imprisoned by former ruling party, the EPRDF, encouraging gender equality in his cabinet, liberalizing banned media outlets and internet censorship, and lifted state of emergency imposed in October 2016 in June 2018. Some argued that Abiy would resolve public discontents of the government by bringing political changes that fulfill democracy and freedom of people. The Parliament accepted female nominees including the first female President Sahle-Work Zewde in the Federal Supreme Court, and Abiy requested the dissents of the former ruling party to return from the United States in order to run an electoral commission. Freedom in the World report by Freedom of House compared Ethiopia's ascension of political rights and civil liberties to Malaysia rose 12 to 19, while Malaysia rose 45 to 52.
For his effort to settle 20-years conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea and among "increasing women's rights", Abiy was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. The Nobel Committee's announced Abiy's reform "efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation," including his "reforms that give many citizens hope for a better life and a brighter future." Abiy used "Medemer" rhetoric which means "summing" to refer political centralization in favor of Ethiopian nationalism and breakup of ethnic federalism that permeated since 1990s rule of former ruling party. Hence, he published the first book of the same name in October 2019. Abiy described by his words "Medemer, an Amharic word, signifies synergy, convergence and teamwork for a common destiny. […] In essence, Medemer is an act of peace that seeks the unity of our common humanity."
In November 2019, Abiy dissolved EPRDF and merged all ethnically based regional parties to form his Prosperity Party in December 2019. The Afar, Somali, Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz, Harari, Gambela and the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People's regional parties were merged to the Prosperity Party while the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) only refused to merge and is the main opponent of Abiy's government. He promised that the party would promote liberal democracy and give opportunity for private sector. The Prosperity Party was criticized by Somali Regional government to TPLF cause. On 14 August 2021, former Vice President of the Somali Region, Abdifatah Mohamoud was detained by unidentified security officers in Addis Ababa and sent him to Jijiga, where arbitrary detained and released that day. According to him, the detention was enforced by Somali Region President Mustafa Mohammed Omer assisted by the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS). This fueled an opposition to the party and the installation of Mustafa in president had caused Somali political instability.
Abiy pledged to hold free and fair election in May 2020, but due to logistic and security concerns, the election postponed indefinitely with many opposition parties and some critics called it "constitutional crisis". The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) announced on 31 March that the election was postponed as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and were unable to organize the polls on time which scheduled the date on 29 August. Opponent called the postponement as a backdrop of "reconsolidate dictatorship". The board chairperson Birtukan Mideksa announced in mid April that only half of 50,000 polling stations were operational except for Afar and Somali Region, which haven't functional stations at all. On 9 September 2020 election of Tigray Region, the Tigray regional government did not recognize Abiy's national election which he deemed "illegal", and believed his condemnation was "meaningless" and his constitutional term would terminated in October 2020.
According the head of Tigray Region electoral commission, Muluwork Kidanemariam, the vote was conducted without further violence or complaints and people were rejoiced and peaceful with over 97% turnout. In an interview with state media, Abiy's dismissed the election as "no legal basis" and are "null and void" and called it "shanty election". In response, the Tigrayan authorities accused Abiy's federal government of breaching self-rule rights granted under Article 39 of the Constitution while the federal government asserted constitutional mandate for political rights to conduct election under Article 55.
On 21 June 2021, parliamentary and regional elections were held under the country's unrest as well as the condition of COVID-19 pandemic. Observers such as the African Union, the Eastern Africa Standby Force and necessarily the local Ethiopian civil societies did not informed the cases. The election were held in 436 parliamentary constituencies out of 547 with those 111 constituencies expected to held on 6 September including Benishangul-Gumuz, some parts of Western Oromia, Somali and Harari Region, and several zones in the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People's Region due to irregularities and affected by fault in ballot paper. The election was deemed a democratic improvement since past elections while NEBE faced considerable logistical challenges. The Property Party landslide won 410 seats out of 436 in the federal parliament, exceeding his term into five years.
Abiy's government was accused of purge of opposition groups, as of June 2022, 18 journalists, YouTubers and members of Fano movement were jailed, 4,500 people were arrested in Amhara Region. The Amhara Region Prosperity Party alleged that the some of its members were suspended due to implementing long-term loan to assist their leaders and employees by negotiating with financial institution.
In 2019 World Press Freedom Index complied by Reporters Without Borders, Ethiopia's press freedom was improved significantly lowering from 150 to 110 out of 180 countries. Addis Ababa based journalists Berihun Adane who published to mentor at Berera newspaper told "This paper exists because of Abiy's reforms. But now we are witnessing the same thing that has happened after every regime change: first there are lots of new magazines and newspapers, then the government starts to crack down on them." Activist Jawar Mohammed accused Abiy Ahmed of increasing "authoritarianism" following claimed house invasion by security forces in his building resulting the October 2019 protest in Addis Ababa.
Since the start of the Tigray War, Ethiopia's freedom of press downgraded by rank. In 2021, 46 journalists were detained which makes Ethiopia the worst jailers in Africa. On 3 May 2022, the state funded Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) released a statement of journalist Gobeze Sisay whereabout after plainclothes officers arrested him on 1 May.
Press watchdogs and human rights groups actively describing Abiy's government "increasingly intimidating" the media as well as harassing opponents to propel unrest in regions and demanded to release 16 journalists and media personnels after the new wave of arrest in Addis Ababa. Tamerat Negera, the founder and managing director of online media, Terara Network has been arrested on 10 December 2021 in alleged dissemination of false information; the federal government took the November 2021 state of emergency as advantage to detain him without trials and charges. He also accused for "commiting a variety of offense" though without collected evidence so far, and numerous charges were opened that took 100 days. On 10 March 2022, the Oromia Supreme Court ordered the prosecutors of Oromia Attorney to extra charges Tamerat for 15 days if reasonable indict is available. The judges transferred him to Sabata Daliti police station in the Oromia Special Zone. He was released on 5 April 2022 with bail of 50,000 ETB.
Abiy's administration is noted for religious intolerance and persecution, commonly due to doctrinal and political dominance in the country. The Meskel Square controversy occurred when the Addis Ababa City Administration, without consent, took ownership over the square. Since 2020, the government has planned to build a vegetable and fruit market under the guise of the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the mayorship of Adanech Abebe, the square’s ownership was disputed between Orthodox and Protestant adherents. Abebe claimed that taxpayers built the square in Addis Ababa. The Ethiopian Orthodox said that it would provide documents for ownership from a "faithful individual who passed it on to the Ethiopian Church before several decade ago". In early 2022, clashes occurred between Ethiopian Orthodox and Protestant Christians over the Addis Ababa City administration's decision to designate Meskel Square for secular use, banning religious celebrations outside the Church.
After the Ethiopian Orthodox Church banned illegally ordained archbishops on 22 January 2023, sporadic violence against Orthodox Christians began, particularly in early February. On 4 February, clashes in West Arsi Zone and Shashamane erupted when Abune Paulos, appointed by the "Holy Synod of Oromia and Nations and Nationalities," visited Shashamane, resulting in three deaths. The Church appealed to organize peaceful demonstrations but the Ethiopian Joint Security and Intelligence Task Force restricted the demonstrations, citing intentions to "create unrest" among the faithful.