Document: NUREG-1555
Document ID: edddea47-82cf-4080-b446-54a1ee9f97cc
Document Type: esrp
Title: FACTORS AFFECTING GROWTH OF DEMAND
Source: NUREG-1555
Source URL: https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr1555/initial/
Revision Date: 2007-10
Chapter: 8
Section ID: 8.2.2
CFR Part: 
CFR Title: 

Content:
. (c) Calculate the annual compound growth rate in kWh sales and peakload for the last 15 years and compute the increase or decrease in growth rates during the period. (2) Identify those elements that could have contributed to diminished growth. The list should include the following ` increases in energy efficiency ` higher prices of electricity ` economic recession ` milder than usual weather. (3) Estimate the relative effects of energy efficiency, price, recession, and weather on diminished growth using the following analyses: (a) Compare the real rate of change in the average price of a kWh of electricity in the service area in the last 15 years and contrast with the real rate of change nationally. (b) Compute the real rate of change in the gross regional product for the relevant service area (or geographic approximation) in the last 15 years with the real rate of increase in gross national product. (c) Review peakload growth in the last 15 years (adjusted for temperature) and discuss positive or negative effects on observed growth rate. (4) Consider the effect of substitution on growth using the following analyses: (a) Review the importance of oil and gas in the relevant service area relative to their availability. Consider any curtailments or denials to new customers (residential, industrial, and commercial) if they exist. Determine the relevant service area’s dependence on fossil fuels and the ratio between demand and available supply. (b) Identify trends in new homes (all-electric versus other), purchases of new appliances (electric vs. other), and shifts in industrial energy and commercial energy requirements. Determine if electricity is capturing or losing an increasing share of the new and replacement market, and the reasons for the increasing or decreasing share. (5) Determine the extent to which the future substitution between electrical energy and fuels such as oil and natural gas may tend to increase or decrease the demand for electric power and thus