If Juan went to the party, it is highly unlikely that Maria would have enjoyed the party. But in fact it turned out that Maria did enjoy the party; therefore, it is highly unlikely that Juan was at the party.
Question: The pattern of reasoning in the argument above is most similar to that in which one of the following?
Options:
A. According to the newspaper, all eight teams in the soccer tournament have an equal chance of winning it. If so, then we will probably lose our goalie, since if we do lose our goalie we will probably not win the tournament.
B. Kapinski, our new neighbor, is probably friendly, for Kapinski sells insurance and most people who sell insurance are friendly.
C. If the lottery were fair, the person who won the lottery would not have been likely to win it. Thus, since this person would have been likely to win the lottery if it were unfair, the lottery was probably unfair.
D. If Clarissa missed the bus today, it is quite unlikely that she would have gotten to work on time. So, it is quite unlikely that Clarissa missed the bus, since she actually was at work on time today.
E. This year's election will probably be fair. But Popov probably will not win unless the election is unfair. So, Popov will not win the election.
Answer: D