176-10036-10145 JFK ASSASSINATION SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION FORM AGENCY : NARA RECORD NUMBER : 176-10036-10145 RECORD SERIES : National Security Files AGENCY FILE NUMBER : ORIGINATOR : CIA FROM : TITLE : CIA Information Report DATE : 9/24/1963 PAGES : 6 SUBJECTS : DOCUMENT TYPE : CLASSIFICATION : RESTRICTIONS : CURRENT STATUS : DATE OF LAST REVIEW : 9/10/2000 OPENING CRITERIA : . COMMENTS : National Security Files, Box 200: Vietnam,9/22/63-10/6/63, CIA Reports. Box 2.
PAL EE Sa A . ew fe is _ | , CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY wa . This matecial containy information affecting the Nationat Defense of the United States within the meaning of the Espronage Loews, Title 18, U.S.C Secs 793 and 794, the frensmission of revelstion of which in gay manner fe an uneuthernwed Berson is peohibited by taw. CLASSIFICATION _ DISSEVINALIORVGOHTROLS S-E-C-R-E-T . ~RELK NO FOREIGN DISSEM COUNTRY ‘SOUTH VIETNAM —BRUBECK report No. TDCS -3/559,975 —CHASE SUBJECT TRAN KIM TUYEN PREDICTS DIRE PROSERURSSS=Sa} are pistr. 2) SEPTEMBER 1963 FOR THE DIEM REGIME IN SOUTH VIBENAMJNGAN | Tonkeow™ RECEDENCE ROUTINE | FILE COPY _KILDUFF | | DATE OF SEPTEMBER 1963 _ELEIN REFERENCES IN 25166 INFO. . ~KOMER PLACE & SINGAPORE (17 SEPTEMBER 1963) _ PARROTT DATE ACO. SAUNDER APPRAISAL SEE BELOW a DAL NEEECEELD REPORTNO. FSS-13408 - tHIs Is UNEVALUATED INFORMATION. SOURCE GRAOINGSARE-DEFIE TIVE. APPRAISAL OF CONTENT IS TENTATIVE. APPR WITH DUE RECOGNITION TO THE FACT THAT TRAN KIM TUYEN Is DEFINITELY ANTI-RECIME, y ,HIS VIEWS ARE CCNSIDERED OF INTEREST BECAUSE HE KNOWS AND UNDERSTANDS NGO DINE - | NEU INDIMATELY . 1. SUMMARY. TRAN KIM TUYEN, EXILED WITHOUT HIS FAMILY TO A CONSULATE POST IN CAIRO, CLAIMED ON 17 SEPTEMBER 1963 THAT IF THE DIEM REGIME IN SOUTH VIETNAM CONTINUED FOR SIX MORE MONTHS, ALL WOULD BE LOST; THEN NOT EVEN A COUP D'ETAT COULD SAVE VIETNAM. IF A NEW REGIME. IS INSTALLED FAIRLY SOON » HOWEVER, IT MIGHT HAVE A FIGHTING CHANCE,. BUT WITH NGO DINH NHU'S SKILLFUL DIVIDE AND CONQUER TACTICS FRAGMENTING THE OPPOSITION, IT IS. UNLIKELY. TUYEN CLAIMED THAT _ NHU IS NOW TRYING TO DELUDE AMERICAN AMBASSADOR HENRY CABOT LODGE, JR., INTO BELIEVING THAT THE REGIME PLANS REAL REFORMS AND THAT ITS FAULTS HAVE BEEN | EXAGGERATED BY ITS ENEMIES AMONG THE AMERICAN OFFICIALS IN SAIGON. TUYEN'S FRIENDS, SUCH AS LIEUTENANT COLONEL PHAM NGOC THAO, INSPECTOR OF STRATEGIC HAMLETS ATTACHED TO THE PRESIDENCY, ARE IN DANGER AS CLASSIFICATION — DISSEMINATION CONTROLS a GRouP | fecladed trom outonesine _ §-E-C-R-E-T NO FOREIGN DISSEM a rare [on Tacs [ war [ne [as Toso] wn [wre [ve [on] or Tome Toe To De oe TZ | BINFORMATION EVITA TELEGRAM. oe“ «61Kb  oBsOLETE PREVIOUS EDITIONS. (15-20
CLASSIFICATION — DISSEMINATION CONTROLS ‘an re NO FOREIGN DISSEM - TPS 29/9799 | (When Filled In) 1S: MOUNT ING AMONG YOUNG BUDDHISTS, STUDENTS, AND “JUNIOR ARMY OFFICERS; GENERAL TRAN VAN DON AND. SEVERAL COLLEAGUES | REALIZE THEY PLAYED INTO NGO DINH NHU'S HANDS BUT ARE NOW HELPLESS, AS THE SITUATION - DETERIORATES, EXTREMISTS FEARING THE CONSIDERABLE RISKS OF A COUP ATTEMPT, WILL TURN TO ASSASSINATION PLOTS IN DESPERATION. THIS WOULD LEAD TO RETALIATION BY LOYALISTS AGAINST AMERICANS AND TO HOPELESS CIVIL WAR. | 2, UP TO THE TIME OF DR TUYEN'S HURRIED DEPARTURE ON 12 SEPTEMBER, THE GOVERNMENT OF VIETNAM .(GVN) WAS TRYING TO RESTORE APPEARANCES OF NORMALCY AND TO PORTRAY ITSELF AS LABORING UNDER DIFFICULTY OF COMMUNIST PLOTS AMONG STUDENTS AND BUDDHISTS, UNDER NGO TRONG HIEU,: KNOWN NOW AMONG THE. SAIGON POPULACE AS "THE POPE OF THE FALSE - ~ BONZES", THE GVN HAS PLACED DOCILE BUDDHIST PRIESTS AND MONKS IN - ALL, PAGODAS, HIS TALK OF RELEASING ARRESTED STUDENTS AND LIFTING MARTTA LAW HOWEVER IMPRESSED MANY WESTERNERS, THE LIFTING OF MARTIAL LAW | ¢ 1S PURELY NOMINAL; -MANY OF THE ALLEGEDLY. "COMMUNIST -STUDENT PLOTTERS" __ MANHANDLED AND ARRESTED WERE YOUNGER BROTHERS AND SONS OF. PROMINENT GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS.AND MILITARY OFFICERS; GVN REPRESSION AND BRUTALITY HAS ACTUALLY DRIVEN MANY EMBITTERED STUDENTS WHO WERE NOT COMMUNISTS TO. FLEE TO THE COUNTRYSIDE..TO SEEK THE COMMUNISTS AS THE LESSER OF TWO-EVILS; MOST BUDDHISTS. REPUDIATE THE GVN'S BONZES, AND ATTENDANCE AT PAGODAS HAS DWINDLED. ‘WITH THE CLOSING © OF .TUDO,. ORDINARY VIETNAMESE ‘NO LONGER TRUST. THE PRESS. OR RADIO CLASSIFICATION — DISSEMINATION CONTROLS | SECRET ee " "NO" FORBIGN DISSEM
temper tn CLASSIFICATION — DISSEMINATION CONTROLS — SECRET. - NO FORBIGN DISSEM’ 7 TDCs 3/559, 975 (When Filled in) SAIGON THOSE WHO CAN DO SO LISTEN TO THE VOICE OF AMERICA (VOR) BROADCASTS. | | | . | _3. ‘NHU HAS DECIDED TO FLATTER AMBASSADOR LODGE | BY MAKING ‘GRUDGING CONCESSIONS SUPPOSEDLY AS A RESULT OF THE, AMBASSADOR 'S NEGOT |ATING PRESSURE (SENDING MADAME NHU OVERSEAS, OSTENSIBLE ENDING MARTIAL LAW, RESTORING SCHOOLS AND ‘TEMPLES. ) NHU HAS TRIED To BLAME . AMER | CAN- GVN. DIFFICULTIES ON AMER CAN CIA PLOTS AGAINST THE REGIME, PERSONAL HATRED (OF JOURNAL ISTS AND | NCUMBENT AMERICAN OFFICIALS OF NHU, AND THE FAMILY, AND AMERICAN © MISUNDERSTAND ING. OF THE COMMUNI ST. LAND. ANTI ~ REGIME SUBVERSIVE USES OF THE BUDDHISTS ‘AND STUDENTS. NHU'S. CHARGES OF AMERICAN PLOTTING | WERE SET WITH DERISION by V 1 ETNAMESE _ BUT AMERICANS | HAVE LOST MUCH FACE WITH MANY SINCERE NATIONALISTS BECAUSE THEY TAKE THESE ACCUSATIONS AND YET ARE NOT. GUILTY. OF BLAME | WHEN -MANY VIETNAMESE WISH THEY WERE, Ww THE VIETNAMESE ARMY HAS SUF FERED MOST FROM THE CURRENT - STALEMATE , BOTH IN MORALE AND IN REPUTATION. THE GENERALS WHO SUCCUMBED TO NHU"S WILY SCHEMES FOR A SHAM MILITARY TAKEOVER ARE Now - HELPLESS AND DISCREDITED.. " GENERAL TRAN VAN’ DON, COMMANDER IN’ 7 CHIEF, SARCASTICALLY RELATED ON TWO OCCAS ONS RECENTLY HIS. YOUNG SON'S DERISIVE COMMENT, THAT DON JS COMMANDER IN CHIEF oF EVERYTHING BUT CAN COMMAND NOTHING. ONLY MAJOR GENERAL, DOUNG VAN MINH AND BRIGADIER GENERAL | NGUYEN KHANH RETAIN ANY PRESTIGE; THOSE HOP ING FOR A MILITARY “picrareD” CHANGE OF: POLICY AS SOME’ STOPGAP: “SALVATION DO NoT TRUST. THE CLASSIFICATION, = ~ DISSEMINATION CONTROLS: 1 SECRET T a oe oe LE / y NO sere DISSEM
od) CLASSIFICATION - — DISSEMINATION CONTROLS . Ss E c RET . NO FOREIGN DISSEM oy - IDES -3/559, 975 (When Filled in) ARMY LEADERS ANY MORE. THE VOA ANNOUNCEMENT THAT THE ARMY WAS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ORDERING THE al AUGUST ATTACKS ‘ON THE PAGODAS TEMPORARILY SAVED THE ARMY'S REPUTATION ‘BUT GENERAL DINH'S IMMEDIATE DENTAL SQUELCHED THIS. FORTUNATELY FOR NHU, DUONG VAN MINH HOWEVER DISCONTENT STILL ABIDES BY HIS OFFICER'S OATH: OF LOYALTY ‘AND: SHUNS POLITICS. HE DOES SO NOT OUT OF ‘STUPIDITY, AS NHU. OFTEN CHARGED IN DENIGRATING HIM. COMMENT. TUYEN RECALLED. ‘BITTERLY HIS OWN PAST. SUPPORT OF NHU IN PUBLICIZING THIS PICTURE OF MINH. .) NGUYEN KHANH, THE MAN WHOM TUYEN CONSIDERS NEXT TO HIMSELF AS MOST ABLE ‘TO PLAN A SUCCESSFUL | COUP, |S HAMPERED AS 18 TUYEN BY. DISTRUST AS A PROVOCATEUR ARISING - CHIEFLY FROM VIGOROUS SUPPORT BOTH GAVE THE REGIME IN 1960. NHU'S AGENTS HAVE FURTHERED THIS “IMAGE OF. KHANH’ AND TUYEN AMONG OTHER SUSPECT MALCONTENTS TO. PRESENT ANY COALITION AGAINST THE REGIME. (5. THE REGIME HAS THE ABILETY To KEEP THE ARMY IN LINE BY THREATS OF COMMUNIST ADVANTAGE BY CONSTANT ‘SURVEILLANCE OF SUSPECT ELEMENTS AND LIMITATION OF THEIR COMMAND AUTHORITY AND: BY -RUINING THE REPUTATION OF HIS ENEME 1ES AND.OF WELL=MEANING COMPROM | SERS LIKE DON, THERE 1S NEVERTHELESS: A STRONG CURRENT ‘UNDER THE SURFACE IN THE ARMED SERVICES, CIVILTAN BUREAUCRACY, POLICE, _ AND PROFESSIONAL CLASSES, PEOPLE LESS’ KNOWN THAN THE TOP’ FIGURES ‘SUSPECTED BY THE GVN''S SPIES UNDER LE QUANG TUNG AND DUONG VAN HIEU, THESE PERSONS HOPE FOR A COUP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS AS VIETNAM'S ~ ONLY SALVATION. NOT ALL OF THEM ARE WILLING TO RISK IT, THOUGH CLASSIFICATION — DISSEMINATION CONTROLS | SECRET | — a . ee “yo rset —
CLASSIFICATION — DISSEMINATION CONTROLS {SECRET : NO FOREIGN DIssEM |TOCS -3/559,975 (When Filled In) THEY WOULD WELCOME [T; THE BIG PROBLEM IS UNITY AND TRUST OF EACH OTHER IN AN ATMOSPHERE ABOUND ING WITH PROVOCATEURS AND RUMOR MONGERS, iF ,THE’ STALEMATE CONTINUES ANOTHER SIX MONTHS , THE REGIME WILL LAST AS LONG AS VIETNAM DOES, BUT THAT WILL NOT BE LONG SINCE NO ONE WILL HAVE THE WILL 70 FIGHT. {Ff A WELL=PLANNED COUP COMES SOON, IT MIGHT SUCCEED AND UNDER TREMENDOUS HANDICAPS couLo STILL SAVE VIETNAM.” ITS SURVIVAL POTENTIAL DECREASES AS TIME GOES BY, | NHU KNOWS THAT HIS MAIN STRENGTH IS THE RELUCTANCE OF HIS PATRIOTIC OPPONENTS AND OF THE AMERICANS TO GIVE THE VC A SUDDEN ADVANTAGE BY PRECIPITIOUS™ - ACTION AGAINST THE REGIME WHICH MIGHT. EVOLVE INTO A- PROTRACTED CONFLICT. HE 1S SKILFULLY PLAYING AGAINST THAT AND TURNING ONE: ENEMY AGAINST ANOTHER. 6. THIS POLICY MAY FRUSTRATE A COUP, THERE 1S A GROWING NUMBER OF JUNIOR OFFICERS, ESPECIALLY MAJORS AND CAPTAINS, WHO WILL NOT COUNT" “THE COST OF DESPERATE ACTION IF THEIR SUPERIORS DO NOT MOVE. ' EVEN THEY MAY TURN AWAY FROM THE INCREASING HIGH RISKS.OF A COUP ' | TO THE RELATIVELY SIMPLE DESPERATION MOVE. OF ASSASSINATION. NHU HAS ALREADY MADE IT CLEAR THROUGH THE SAIGON UNDERGROUND WHERE PROVOCATEURS AND PLOTTERS MEET THAT THE REGIME 1S PREPARED TO RETALIATE WITH COUNTER ASSASSINATIONS OF NUMEROUS PERSONNEL ALREADY EARMARKED BY COLONEL TUNG FOR SUCH A DIRE EVENTUALITY, INCLUDING “AMERICANS, “ON WHOM ANY ASSASSINATION PLOT WILL’ BE BLAMED, THE ONLY FURTHER RESULT WOULD BE_A HOPELESS THREE-CORNERED CIVIL WAR. CLASSIFICATION — DISSEMINATION CONTROLS SECRET ne - : a NO FOREIGN DISSEM