HW 355355 DoclId: 32401316 ARMY TAKSS OVER IS IRAQ cof i of maneu- of the ' Following a week vering among factions ruling Baathists, the army took control of Iraq om 18 November. The political complexion of the new regime is still not clear, however. President Arif, a non- Baathist "Arab nationalist" with past ties to Cairo, was evidently able to achieve united army ac- tion against the former govern- ment by playing os almost uni- versal army disgust with the role of the natioral guard--the paramilitary organ of the Baath Party—-im the events of the pre- ceding week. Arif has himself assumed most of tke executive power of the state. The mili- tary governor general, also a non-Baathist, remzins at his post and has taker over the Interior Einistry. Arif has issted appeals of friendship to botk Egypt and Syria, amd Baghdad radio has broadcast songs praising Nasir. Egyptian spokesmen have welcomed the coup. At Bagkdad's request, Cairo has also agreed to supply radio an@ television propaganda materials to Iraq. However, the new regime still retains some Baathist _coloration. There appear to ‘have been no changes in command -. in the army, and Baathist offi- cers continue to hold positions of considerable importance in the military. The regime's second im command is General Hardan Tikriti, a Baathist of long stamding who played a major part in Iast February's coup. 22 Now 63 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW Asia-Africa Former Premier Bakr has been appointed vice president in the new government, and the new premier cooperated closely with the Baath during its period of ascendancy. It is not certain, however, if these elements con- sider themselves bound by the decisions of the Baath Party international command. The new cabinet is a coa- lition of Arab nationalist ele- ments and is dominated by the military. Arif probably expects to play off contending elements in. the coalition to maintain his present powerful position. The army takeover appears to have made a dead issue of any meaningful u Iraq and Syria. the Syrian Army forces stationed in northern Iraq are concentrating, prelim- inary to withdrawal. However, Syrian leaders may expect to reach some accommodation with the new regime. Syrian Premier Hafiz and other members of the Baath Party international command caught in Baghdad by the coup have flown to Damascus, where talks on the Iraqi situation are under way. A modus vivendi with the Iraqis would reduce the Syrian regime's present’ isolation and probably improve its short-term chances for survival. However, Cairo is calling for a "nation- alist revolution" in Syria, similar to what occurred in Iraq. (TOP SECRET DINAR) . Fi JEK Act 6 (1) (B) Page 15 “TOP SECRE TF-DISAR Page 24
HW 355355 %, Asia-Africa AFRICANS DEAL WITH ALGER I AN-MOROCCAN DISPUTE bo aes The territorial dispute be- tween Morocco and Algeria has been temporarily shelved fol- lowing the selection of a con- ciliation commission by the Organization of African Unity (OAU) --~meeting in Addis Ababa from 15 to 18 November. The respite will allow both antag- onists to improve their military positions. The seven-nation commission -~Ethiopia, Mali, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Sudan, Tanganyika, and Nigeria--will seek to fix re- sonsibility for the outbreak of hostilities on 8 October and make recommendations for a solu- tion of the territorial dispute. It will attempt to win agreement from the disputants to an out- line of a bilateral accord. The commission will meet initially in Ivory Coast on 2 December and may be prepared to report its ‘findings in February to the next meeting of OAU foreign ministers in Nigeria. Ethiopian Acting Foreign Minister Ketema, who played a leading role at the conference, has informed the American ambas- sador thata "kind of understand- ing™ was reached on a limitation of arms during the cooling-off period. The intervening months nevertheless will provide time for Egyptian and other foreign instructors now in Algeria to train Algerian forces in the use of equipment supplied in the past six weeks by Egypt, Cuba, and the USSR, and for Morocco to pursue its own train- ing programs. DoclId: 32401316 22 Nov 63 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW At the conclusion of the Addis meeting the prevailing mood among most of the 32 OAU members was one of general self- satisfaction over what they re- garded as a demonstration of the organization's ability to function in a crisis. As for the future, the delegates prob- ably widely shared Ketema's view that the commission's rec- ommendations, while not legally binding, would in fact become mandatory because of the Africa- wide moral pressure which would be behind them. The conference pushed the soaring prestige of Ethiopia's Haile Selassie still higher. Ghana's frenetic Nkrumah, on the other hand, once again found his spokesman's efforts to pre- empt a prominent role for Ghana thwarted. Meanwhile, the four-power commission--Mali, Ethiopia, Algeria, and Morocco--set up at Bamako last month to establish a demilitarized zone along the border is just getting organized. In the face of Morocco's adamant refusal to pull back its forces from Hassi Beida and Tinjoub, and. Algeria's insistence that it do so, prospects are not bright that it can be effective. ‘Nevertheless, no new border in- -~-- cidents have occurred, although © ommunica- tions reveal continuing aerial reconnaissance and a general ‘strengthening of forces along the border. (TOP SECRET DINAR) JEK Act 6 (1) (B) Page 16 “TOP -SECREFDINAR . Page 25
” Gulf of Aden FRENCH ae SOMALILAND —_ in EAST AFRICA 33050 . CODE WORD MATERIAL ON REVERSE OF PAGE HW 55355 DBocld:32401316 Page 26
NEW SOMALI-ETHIOPIAN TENSIONS Fighting between Ethiopian security forces and Somali tribesmen in Ethiopia's Ogaden region has recently increased sharply. Although full-scale hostilities between Ethiopia and the Somali Republic--which claims the Somali-inhabited areas of the Ogaden--are not likely, serious incidents could occur at any time. The increased tension will probably lead to a renewal of vituperative prop- aganda exchanges, with the Somalis seeking international support for their territorial claims. and frequently wearing captured Ethiopian uniforms, have attacked both Ethiopian. Army troops and police outposts in several areas. On 6 November, 29.Ethiopian soldiers were killed in an an- bush--the largest number yet noted in a single attack. The Ethiopians believe that some of the dissident bands number. 300 or more. Ethiopian commanders admit that they are hard pressed to ~ maintain order. One division commander recently requested two additional battalions and as many vehicles as possible, because "the security situation is getting worse from day to day." On 9 November, Addis Ababa replied that a force of brigade strength would be sent. Addis Ababa, convinced that the dissidents are receiv- ing aid from the Somali Govern- ment at Mogadiscio, has reacted sharply both to the stepped-up attacks and the $40-million arms 22 Nov 63 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW Asia-Africa aid--reportedly to include MIG-17 aircraft--which Mogadi- scio recently accepted from Moscow. The Ethiopians appear to be planning reprisals against the Somali population in the area of the ambush, Addis Ababa apparently having concurred in the local commander's recommen- -dation that the area be "thor- oughly devastated by air and by land.” On 13 November Emn- peror Haile Selassie told the US ambassador that the Somali- Soviet arms deal could have "grave consequences," and the Ethiopian press and radio are ' charging it is evidence of Somalia's intention "to achieve territorial aggrandizement through the sheer force of arms." According to a reliable clandestine report, however, the Emperor has given firm orders that Ethiopian troops will not violate the Somali border, or take actions that would permit Mogadiscio to make the situation "a cause for international concern." Local Ethiopian commanders might still be goaded into in- cursions on their own initia- |} tive along the largely unmarked border. have, in —_ — ot asi dents being "assisted" with rations and secretly delivered materiel, but on Somali terri- tory. Such support might soon become overt, as the Mogadiscio government is deeply committed to Somali irredentism, and faced with difficult municipal elections later this month and general elections in March. (TOP SECRET DINAR “NO FOREIGN DISSEM) et Page 17 -FOP-SECREF DEAR DoclId: 32401316 Page 2?7