HW 55355 DBoctId Asia-~Africa SOUTH ZOREAN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS Yhe gowerning junta's Demo- cratic Republican Party (DRP) is rumning scared in the cam- paign for the 26 November elec- tions to the South Korean Na- — tional Assembly. Opposition forces are Likely to obtain a nominal majority and secure a forum for harassing President Pak Chong-hwi'’s regime. Never- theless, the jumta should be able to dominate the new assembly through bribes and coercion and by maxing the most of the strong powers wested in the executive. The assembly will be the first to meet since the present regime seized power in May 1961. Nearl; L,00@ camdidates repre- senting five major and seven winor parties are competing for the seats of the 131 single- nember districts; an additional 44 seats are to be apportioned accordimg to the over-all popular vote. The fomr main opposition parties are trying to exploit widespread public concern over deterioratimg economic conditions and disenchantment with the re- gime’s authoritarianism. Their candidates are generally better known than the DRP's and have stronger local ties. Neverthe- less, these parties are hampered by a Lack of fimancial support and by an excessive number of candidates comgpeting against one another. Already divided by long-stamding personal and factional differences, they are also reluctant to wake any deals involving withdrawal of candi- dates because this would reduce party chances of gaining seats tae 22 Nav 63 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW under the second-stage apportion- ment. At the same time the , need for funds reportedly has led to the sale of some posi- tions on opposition tickets to covert regime backers seeking a more popular label. Shaken by Pak's narrow margin in winning last month's presidential race, the DRP claims that only a victory for its candidates can assure the country political stability. The cam- paigns of regime candidates are being supported by the govern- ment.administrative apparatus and are lavishly financed. The police are being used to a greater extent than last month to put pressure on the electorate and harass the opposition. The regime also appears to be fi- nancing most of the minor parties with a mind to splitting the opposition vote. Both the DRP and the opposi- tion have generally indicated their support for continued co- operation with the United States. The major exception is former security chief Kim Chong-pil. Kim reportedly aspires to become premier in a DRP government. In the course of a highly national- istic address to college students on 4 November, he delivered a diatribe against "Yankeeism"-- a protest which he claimed was distinct from anti-Americanisn. The generally favorable reaction suggests that Kim may be able to use this theme in the future to whip up support from among the volatile Korean students. (CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM) Page 11 FOP SECRET DINAR 2132401316 Page 20
HW 355355 FOP -SECREF DINAR Problems are increasing for the new regime in Saigon as it begins to grapple with the task of governing South Vietnam. General Ton That Dinh may be using his position as security minister to build up an independ— ent political base. After the coup, he portrayed himself to the press as its real instigator, and has put himself further in the limelight by a tour of sev- eral provincial cities where he held rallies to drum up public support. A recent intercepted directive from his ministry re- questing all province chiefs to report daily on the local politi- cal situation may be indicative _of his personal ambitions. The regime faces potential difficulties in its efforts to garner support from traditional opponents of the Diem regime. Various remnants of the once-— powerful politico-religious sects are being encouraged to rally, but may attempt to set conditions for active support of the regime. Their factional activities were a weakening element in South Viet- nam before they were forcibly suppressed by Diem in 1954-55, Disagreements over the role of the prospective civilian “council of sages," which is to advise on the transition to a permanent government, may en- courage some politicians to re- main aloof, Phan Huy Quat-—-a leader in the Dai Viet party, which wants the council to be an embryonic national assembly responsible only to the military junta--asserts that he is becon- ing disillusioned. He objects to Premier Tho's plans to have a small council subordinated to 22 Nov 63 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW Asia-Africa PROBLEMS MOUNT FOR NEW SOUTH VIETNAMESE REGIME his provisional cabinet and to’ the scheme of some officers on the junta's political staff to make the council a vehicle for setting up a manipulated two- party system. Meanwhile, there are re- ports of lower morale in the na- tional police directorate where the new chief, General Xuan, is filling key posts with his per- sonal followers. Air force of- ficers are criticizing their new commander, whom they consider poorly qualified and politically minded. The Information Ministry reportedly has ordered newspapers not to criticize the armed forces or publish divisive articles on religion, One military officer claims the generals have been disgusted by the unprincipled behavior of the press since the lifting of restrictions. Vietnamese Communists in Cambodia reportedly have been told that the Viet Cong plan, by inciting the South Vietnamese people to make impossible de- mands, to force the new military rulers to follow "the road of the Diem regime" by resorting to repressive measures, The intensified Viet Cong military drive appears to have Slackened after reaching an all-time high in. the week of 511 November with over 1,000 incidents including 233 armed attacks. The attacks, how- ever, were primarily small. - scale and apparently designed as much for psychological im- pact as for actual military gain, (SECRET SABRE NO FOR- EIGN DISSEM) Page 12 —FOP-SECRET DEAR DoclId: 327401316 Page ?1
DoclId: 32401316 CAMBODIA RENOUNCES AMERICAN AID oY Cambodia's renunciation of US aid and demand for withdrawal of American military advisers marks a new departure in Prince Sihanouk's strategy for main- taining his country's independ- ence and neutrality. Sihanouk announced the moves before a mass rally in Phnom Penh on 19 November, and the next day gave formal notice to the US Embassy. His actions followed weeks of fulminations against alleged US support of dissident Khmer Serei (Free Cambodia) elements who have been beaming anti- Sihanouk broadcasts into Cam- bodia from mobile transmitters in South Vietnam and Thailand. Even though this ragtag group does not threaten his firm con- trol over Cambodia, Sihanouk has always reacted violently whenever Khmer Serei activities have flared up. He believes, moreover, that the US played a major role in the overthrow of the Diem-Nhu regime in Saigon, and so considers the current Khmer Serei operations more omi- nous than usual. His emotional speeches earlier this month con- tained frequent references to the possibility of his assassina-— tion, and he even designated a successor--his 18-year-old son 22 Nov 63 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW Asia-~Africa Naradipo, now studying in Pei- ping. Sihanouk had long wished to revise the terms of US aid to Cambodia. He was already moving in the direction of breaking the West's monoply on military assistance, having recently accepted a few jet fighters and antiaircraft guns from the USSR as a "personal gift." Sihanouk also partly blamed US aid operations for Cambodia's economic stagna-— tion. He thus criticized the Commodity Import Program for allocating foreign exchange to the private sector of the economy, and has announced plans to nationalize Cambodia's import-export firms as of 1 January. Sihanouk's actions have already disrupted business activity, led to a currency devaluation, and dismayed his conservative advisers and others in the royal fan- ily. These repercussions may yet lead him to moderate his course and seek to re- negotiate the terms of US aid. (SECRET) Page 13 —FOP-SECREF DINAR Page 2?
TENUOUS "CEASE-FIRE" IN LAOS Laotian neutralist commander Kong Le and Pathet Lao military chief Singkapo on 16 November agreed to a cease-fire on the Plaine des Jarres. Subsequent meetings were set to work out details, and "to create a favor- able atmosphere" for an eventual meeting of Premier Souvanna Phouma and Pathet Lao leader Souphannouvong. In ameeting on 19 November, however, the mili- «. tary leaders made no significant progress, agreeing only to another conference on 26 Novem- ber. ° The reasons behind the Pathet Lao'’s willingness to en- ter into negotiations are un- clear, They may be seeking a temporary detente to gain time for broader military ventures, or they may be hoping to under- mine the neutralist-rightist al- liance by offering minor con- cessions to the neutralist fac- tion. While fighting on the plain has slackened, the cease-fire is unlikely to end all fighting there, Occasional shellings in violation of the agreement have been reported. In other areas, there are reports of continued military activity. Near Xieng Khouang town rightist units have taken commanding positions in nearby the north they in their efforts, hills, while to are persisting .22 Nov 63 to recapture a key mountain post CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW Asia-Africa om Det BEE a ER + pane ARSE at 5 STR at Tha Lin Noi. In the Vang Vieng area, neutralist forces are pressing their efforts to drive the Pathet Lao troops from the town. Farther south, near Nhommarath, Pathet Lao and neutralist forces continue to jockey for position. (COX- FIDENTIAL) Plaine des ; Jarres Xieng Khouang VIENTIANE VIENTIANE THAILAND Page 14 —FOP-SECREF-DPRAR HW 55355 DBocld:32401316 Page 23