(7) On February 5, 2007, the President sub-
mitted a request for supplemental appropriations for 
fiscal year 2007, including $5,600,000,000 to in-
crease United States forces in the Iraqi theater of 
operations to support the Government of Iraq with 
21,500 United States ground forces and an ex-
panded Naval presence. At the same time, the Presi-
dent also submitted a proposed budget for fiscal 
year 2008 which did not request funding for these 
additional troops in Iraq. 
(8) On February 1, 2007, the intelligence com-
munity presented to the President the first National 
Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq in nearly four 
years. 
(9) The NIE, the most authoritative written 
judgment of the Director of National Intelligence 
with respect to Iraq, states that ‘‘Iraqi society’s 
growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the 
security forces and the state in general, and all 
sides’ ready recourse to violence are collectively driv-
ing an increase in communal and insurgent violence 
and political extremism. Unless efforts to reverse 
these conditions show measurable progress during 
. . . the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the 
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overall security situation will continue to deterio-
rate.’’. 
(10) The NIE states that as Iraq’s security en-
vironment worsens, three prospective security paths 
could emerge— 
(A) chaos leading to partition; 
(B) emergence of a Shia strongman; or 
(C) anarchic fragmentation of power. 
(11) Congress needs to know how the Adminis-
tration expects to respond to each of those possibili-
ties, and what specific plans are being taken and 
what specific plans are being developed to be able to 
respond to such possibilities. 
SEC. 3. REPORT ON CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR IRAQ. 
(a) REPORT REQUIRED.—Not later than June 30, 
2007, the President shall transmit to the Committees on 
Armed Services of the House of Representatives and the 
Senate a report detailing contingency plans for how the 
Department of Defense and other departments and agen-
cies of the Federal Government will respond to the fol-
lowing three prospective security paths in Iraq, as outlined 
in the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq: 
(1) CHAOS LEADING TO PARTITION.—Described 
by the NIE as follows: ‘‘A rapid deterioration in the 
capacity of Iraq’s central government to function, 
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security services and other aspects of sovereignty 
would collapse. Resulting widespread fighting could 
produce de facto partition, dividing Iraq into three 
mutually antagonistic parts. Collapse of this mag-
nitude would generate fierce violence for at least sev-
eral years, ranging well beyond the time frame of 
this estimate, before settling into a partially stable 
end-state.’’. 
(2) EMERGENCE OF A SHIA STRONGMAN.—De-
scribed by the NIE as follows: ‘‘Instead of a disinte-
grating central government producing partition, a 
security implosion could lead Iraq’s potentially most 
powerful group, the Shia, to assert its latent 
strength.’’. 
(3) ANARCHIC FRAGMENTATION OF POWER.— 
Described by the NIE as follows: ‘‘The emergence of 
a checkered pattern of local control would present 
the greatest potential for instability, mixing extreme 
ethno-sectarian violence with debilitating intra-group 
clashes.’’. 
(b) ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.—The report shall in-
clude detailed information regarding the proposed role of 
the United States Armed Forces under each of the three 
prospective security paths referred to in subsection (a), in-
cluding a comprehensive analysis to identify and justify 
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the number of United States troops needed in each case, 
and the proposed roles of other departments and agencies 
of the Federal Government. 
Æ 
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