(3) According to the fourth assessment report 
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 
average temperature increases of between 2 and 4 
degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels are pro-
jected to cause the sea level to rise by between 2 and 
4 meters by 2100 due to melting of the Greenland 
and Antarctic ice sheets. 
(4) In 2007, more than 200,000,000 people live 
in coastal floodplains around the world and 
2,000,000 square kilometers of land and an esti-
mated $1,000,000,000,000 worth of assets are less 
than a 1-meter elevation above sea level. 
(5) An estimated 1,700,000,000 people in the 
world live in areas where water is scarce and in 25 
years that population is projected to increase to 
5,400,000,000. Climate change will impact the 
hydrological cycle and change the location, time of 
year, and intensity of water availability. 
(6) The report of the World Health Organiza-
tion entitled ‘‘The World Health Report 2002: Re-
ducing Risks and Promoting Healthy Life’’ states 
that ‘‘Effects of climate change on human health 
can be expected to be mediated through complex 
interactions of physical, ecological, and social fac-
tors. These effects will undoubtedly have a greater 
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impact on societies or individuals with scarce re-
sources, where technologies are lacking, and where 
infrastructure and institutions (such as the health 
sector) are least able to adapt.’’. 
(7) Environmental changes relating to global 
climate change represent a potentially significant 
threat multiplier for instability around the world as 
changing precipitation patterns may exacerbate com-
petition and conflict over agricultural, vegetative, 
and water resources and displace people, thus in-
creasing hunger and poverty and causing increased 
pressure on fragile countries. 
(8) The strategic, social, political, and economic 
consequences of global climate change are likely to 
have a greater adverse effect on less developed coun-
tries with fewer resources and infrastructures that 
are less able to adjust to new economic and social 
pressures, and where the margin for governance and 
survival is thin. 
(9) The consequences of global climate change 
represent a clear and present danger to the security 
and economy of the United States. 
(10) A failure to recognize, plan for, and miti-
gate the strategic, social, political, and economic ef-
fects of a changing climate will have an adverse im-
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pact on the national security interests of the United 
States. 
SEC. 3. NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON GLOBAL 
CLIMATE CHANGE. 
(a) REQUIREMENT FOR NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE 
ESTIMATE.— 
(1) IN GENERAL.—Except as provided in para-
graph (2), not later than 270 days after the date of 
enactment of this Act, the Director of National In-
telligence shall submit to Congress a National Intel-
ligence Estimate on the anticipated geopolitical ef-
fects of global climate change and the implications 
of such effects on the national security of the United 
States. 
(2) NOTICE
REGARDING
SUBMITTAL.—If the 
Director of National Intelligence determines that the 
National Intelligence Estimate required by para-
graph (1) cannot be submitted by the date set out 
in that paragraph, the Director shall notify Congress 
and provide— 
(A) the reasons that the National Intel-
ligence Estimate cannot be submitted by such 
date; and 
(B) an estimated date for the submittal of 
the National Intelligence Estimate. 
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(b) CONTENT.—The Director of National Intelligence 
shall prepare the National Intelligence Estimate required 
by this section using the mid-range projections of the 
fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel 
on Climate Change— 
(1) to assess the political, social, agricultural, 
and economic risks during the 30-year period begin-
ning on the date of enactment of this Act posed by 
global climate change for countries or regions that 
are— 
(A) of strategic economic or military im-
portance to the United States and at risk of 
significant impact due to global climate change; 
or 
(B) at significant risk of large-scale hu-
manitarian suffering with cross-border implica-
tions as predicted on the basis of the assess-
ments; 
(2) to assess other risks posed by global climate 
change, including increased conflict over resources or 
between 
ethnic 
groups, 
within 
countries 
or 
transnationally, increased displacement or forced mi-
grations of vulnerable populations due to inundation 
or other causes, increased food insecurity, and in-
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creased risks to human health from infectious dis-
ease; 
(3) to assess the capabilities of the countries or 
regions described in subparagraph (A) or (B) of 
paragraph (1) to respond to adverse impacts caused 
by global climate change; 
(4) to assess the strategic challenges and oppor-
tunities posed to the United States by the risks de-
scribed in paragraph (1); 
(5) to assess the security implications and op-
portunities for the United States economy of engag-
ing, or failing to engage successfully, with other 
leading and emerging major contributors of green-
house gas emissions in efforts to reduce emissions 
and adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, in-
cluding transitioning from reliance upon finite fossil 
fuels such as imported petroleum and natural gas to 
clean domestic renewable energy sources; and 
(6) to make recommendations for further as-
sessments of security consequences of global climate 
change that would improve national security plan-
ning. 
(c) COORDINATION.—In preparing the National In-
telligence Estimate under this section, the Director of Na-
tional Intelligence shall consult with representatives of the 
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