Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5 Executive Summary Studies of paranormal phenomena have nearly always been associated with controversy. Despite the controversy concerning their nature and existence, many individuals and organizations continue to be avidly interested in these phenomena. The intelligence community is no exception: beginning in the 1970s, it has conducted a program intended to investigate the application of one paranormal phenomenon — remote viewing, or the ability to describe locations ong, has not: visited. hep we prien Know le hye? Conceptually, remote viewing would seem to have tremendous potential utility for the intelligence community. Accordingly, a three-component program involving basic research, operations, and foreign assessment has been in place for some time. Prior to transferring this program to a new sponsoring organization within the intelligence community, a thorough program review was initiated. The part of the program review conducted by the American Institutes for Research (AIR), a nonprofit, private research organization, consisted of two main components. The first component was a review of the research program. The second component was a review of the operational application of the remote viewing phenomenon in intelligence gathering. Evaluation of the foreign assessment component of the program was not within the scope of the present effort. Research Evaluation To evaluate the research program, a "blue ribbon” panel was assembled. The panel included two noted experts in the area of parapsychology: Dr. Jessica Utts, a Professor of Statistics at the University of California/Davis, and Dr. Raymond Hyman, a Professor of Psychology at the University of Oregon. In addition to their extensive credentials, they were selected to represent both sides of the paranormal controversy: Dr. Utts has published articles that view paranormal interpretations positively, while Dr. Hyman was selected to represent a more skeptical position. Both, however, are viewed as fair and open-minded scientists, In addition to these experts, this panel included two Senior Scientists from AIR; both have recognized methodological expertise, and both had no prior background in parapsychological research, They were included in the review panel to provide an unbiased methodological DRAFT - American Institutes for Research E-F Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5
Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5 FUT Summary perspective. In addition, Dr. Lincoln Moses, an Emeritus Professor at Stanford University, provided statistical advice, while Dr. David A. Goslin, President of AIR, served as coordinator of the research effort. Panel members were asked to review all laboratory experiments and meta-analytic reviews conducted as part of the research program, this consisted of approximately 80 Separate publications, many of which are summary reports of multiple experiments. In the course of this review, special attention was given to those studies that (a) provided the strongest evidence for the remote viewing phenomenon, and ( b) represented new experiments controlling for methodological artifacts identified in earlier teviews. Separate written reviews were prepared by Dr. Utts and Dr. Hyman. They exchanged reviews with other panel members who then tried to reach a consensus, In the typical remote viewing experiment in the laboratory, a remote viewer is asked to visualize a place, location, or object being viewed by a "beacon" or sender. A judge then examines the viewer's report and determines if this report matches the target or, alternatively, a set of decoys. In most recent laboratory experiments reviewed for the present evaluation, National Geographic photographs provided the target pool. If the viewer's reports match the target, as opposed to the decoys, a hit is said to have occurred. Alternatively, accuracy of a set of remote viewing reports is assessed by rank-ordering the similarity of each remote viewing report to each photograph in the target set (usually five photographs). A better-than- chance score is presumed to represent the occurrence of the paranormal phenomenon of remote viewing, sirfce the remote viewers had not seen the photographs they had described (or did not know which photographs had been randomly selected for a particular remote viewing trial), In evaluating the various laboratory studies conducted to date, the reviewers reached the following conclusions: * A Statistically significant laboratory effort has been demonstrated in the sense that hits occur more often than chance. * It is unclear whether the observed effects can unambiguously be attributed to the paranormal! ability of the remote viewers as opposed to characteristics of the DRAFT - American Institutes for Research E-2 Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5
Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5 Executive Summary judges or of the target or some other characteristic of the methods used. Use of the same remote viewers, the same judge, and the same target photographs makes it impossible to identify their independent effects. * Evidence has not been provided that clearly demonstrates that the causes of hits are due to the operation of paranormal phenomena; the laboratory experiments have not ~~ identified the sources or origins of the remote viewing phenomenon. Operational Evaluation The second component of the program involved the use of remote viewing in gathering intelligence information. Here, representatives of various intelligence groups— “end users" of intelligence information — presented targets to remote viewers, who were asked to describe the target. Typically, the remote viewers described the results of their experiences in written reports, which were forwarded to the end users for evaluation and, if warranted, action. To assess the operational value of remote viewing in intelligence gathering, a multifaceted evaluation strategy was employed. First, the relevant research literature was reviewed to identify whether the conditions applying during intelligence gathering would reasonably permit application of the remote viewing paradigm. Second, members of three groups involved in the program were interviewed: (1) end users of the information; (2) the remote viewers providing the reports, and (3) the program manager. Third, feedback information obtained from end user judgments of the accuracy and value of the remote viewing reports were assessed. This multifaceted evaluation effort led to the following conclusions: ¢ The conditions under which the remote viewing phenomenon is observed in laboratory settings do not apply in intelligence gathering situations. For example, viewers cannot be provided with feedback and targets may not display the v characteristics needed to produce hits. DRAFT - American Institutes for Researc =3 Approved For Release 2002/05/22 + CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5
Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5 Executive Summary ¢ The end users indicating that, although some accuracy was observed with regard to broad background characteristics, the remote viewing reports failed to produce the concrete, specific information valued in intelligence gathering. ¢ The information provided was inconsistent, inaccurate with regard to specifics, and required substantial subjective interpretation. , . In no case had the information provided ever been uSed to guide intelligence operations. Thus, Remote viewing failed to produce actionable intelligence. Conclusions ce The foregoing observations provide a compelling argument against continuation of the r ar program within the intelligence community. Even though a statistically significant effect has been observed in the laboratory, it remains unclear whether the existence of a paranormal phenomenon, remote viewing, has been demonstrated. The laboratory studies do not provide t-— evidence regarding the sources or origins of the phenomenon, nor do they address an important methodological issue of inter-judge reliability. Further, even if it could be demonstrated unequivocally that a paranormal phenomenon occurs under the conditions present in the laboratory paradigm, these conditions have limited applicability and utility for intelligence gathering operations. For example, the nature of the remote viewing targets are vastly dissimilar, as are the specific tasks required of oO the remote viewers, Most importantly, the information provided by remote viewing is vague and ambiguous, making it difficult, if not impossible, for the technique to yield information of sufficient quality and accuracy fof informatiofi\for actionable intelligence. Thus, we conclude that continued use of remote viewing in intelligence gathering operations is not warranted. DRAFT - American Institutes for Research E-d Approved For Release 2002/05/22 | CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5
Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5 1. Background and History In their continuing quest to improve effectiveness, many organizations have sought techniques that might be used to enhance performance. For the most part, the candidate techniques cme from rather traditional lines of inquiry stressing interventions such as selection, training, and performance appraisal. However, some other, more controversial performance enhancement techniques have also been suggested. These techniques range from implicit learning and mental rehearsal to the enhancement of paranormal abilities, In the mid-1980s, at the request of the Army Research Institute, the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences established a blue ribbon panel charged with evaluating the evidence bearing on the effectiveness of a wide variety of techniques for enhancing human performance. This review was conducted under the overall direction of David A. Goslin, then Executive Director of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (CBASSE), and now President of the American Institutes for Research (AIR). The review panel's report, Enhancing Human Performance: Issues, Theories, and Techniques, was published by the National Academy Press in 1988 and summarized by Swets and Bjork (1990). They noted that although the panel found some support for certain alternative performance enhancement techniques — for example, guided imagery — little or no support was found for the usefulness of many other techniques, such as learning during sleep and remote viewing. Although the findings of the National Research Council (NRC) were predominantly negative with regard to a range of paranormal phenomena, work on remote viewing has continued under the auspices of various government programs. Since 1986, perhaps 50 to 100 additional studies of remote viewing have been conducted. At least some of these studies represent significant attempts to address the methodological problems noted in the review conducted by the NRC panel. At the request of Congress, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is considering assuming responsibility for this the remote viewing program. As part of its decision-making process, the CIA was asked to evaluate the research conducted since the NRC report. This evaluation was intended to determine: (a) whether this research has any long-term practical The American Institutes for Research 7-1 Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5
Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5 Chapter One: Background and History value for the intelligence community, and (b) if it does, what changes should be made in methods and approach to enhance the value of remote viewing research. To achieve these goals, the CIA contracted with the American Institutes for Research to supervise and conduct the evaluation. This report contains the results of our evaluation. Before presenting our results, we begin by presenting a brief overview of the remote viewing phenomenon and a short history of the applied program that involves remote viewing. Remote Viewing Although parapsychological research has a long history, studies of "remote viewing" — also referred to as a form of "anomalous cognition" — as a unique manifestation of psychic functioning began in the 1970s. In its simplest form, a typical remote viewing study during this early period of investigation consisted of the following: A p: :son, referred to as a "beacon" or “sender,” travels to a series of remote sites. The remote viewer, a person who putatively has the parapsychological ability, is asked to describe the locations of the beacon. Typically, these location descriptions include drawings and a verbal description of the location, Subsequently, a judge evaluates this description by rank ordering the set of locations against the descriptions. If the judge finds that the viewer's description most closely matched the actual location of the sender, a hit is said to have occurred. If hits occur more often than chance, or if the assigned ranks are more accurate than a random assignment, one might argue that a psychic phenomenon has been observed: the viewer has described a location not visited during the session. This phenomenon has been studied by various investigators throughout the intervening period, using several variants of this basic paradigm. If certain people (or all people to a greater or lesser extent, as has been proposed by some investigators) possess the ability to see and describe target locations they have not visited, this ability might prove of great value to the intelligence community. As an adjunct method to gathering intelligence, people who possess this ability could be asked to describe various intelligence targets. This information, especially if considered credible and reliable, could supplement and enhance more time-consuming and perhaps dangerous methods for collecting data. Although certain (perhaps unwarranted) assumptions, such as the availability of a sender, are implicit in this argument, the possibility of gathering intelligence through this mechanism has provided the major impetus for government interest in remote viewing. The American institutes for Hesearc 1-2 Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5
Ta el cs i Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5 Chapter One: Background and History Remote viewing was and continues to be a controversial phenomenon. Early research on remote viewing was plagued by a number of statistical and methodological flaws.’ One statistical flaw found in early studies of remote viewing, for example, was due to failure to control for the elimination of locations already judged. For example, if there were five targets in the set, judges might lower their rankings for a viewing already judged as a "hit" or ranked first. In other words, all targets did not have an equal probability of being assigned all ranks. Another commonly noted methodological flaw was that cues in the remote viewing paradigm, such as the time needed to drive to various locations, may have allowed viewers to produce hits without using any parapsychological ability. More recent research has attempted to control for many of these problems. New paradigms have been developed where, for example, viewers — in double-blind conditions — are asked to visualize pictures drawn from a target pool consisting of National Geographic photographs. In addition to this experimental work, an applied program of intelligence operations actually using remote viewers has been developed. In the following section, we describe the history of the government's remote viewing program. Program History "Star Gate" is a Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) program which involved the use of paranormal phenomena, primarily "remote viewing," for intelligence collection. During Star Gate's history, DIA pursued three basic program objectives: "Operations," using remote viewing to collect intelligence against foreign targets; "Research and Development," using laboratory studies to find new ways to improve remote viewing for use in the intelligence world; and "Foreign Assessment," the analysis of foreign activities to develop or exploit the paranormal for any uses which might affect our national security. Prior to the advent of Star Gate in the early 1990s, the DIA, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and other government organizations conducted various other programs pursuing some or all of these objectives. CIA's program began in 1972, but was discontinued in 1977, DIA's direct involvement began about 1985 and has continued up to the time of this 1Many of these problems are described in the National Research Council Report. Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5
2 eerie alee ae Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5 a Chapter One: Background and History review. During the last twenty years, all government programs involving parapsychology have been viewed as highly controversial, high-risk, and have been subjected to various reviews. In 1995, the CIA declassified its past parapsychology program efforts in order to facilitate a new, external review. In addition, CIA worked with DIA to continue declassification of Star Gate program documents, a process which had already begun at DIA. All relevant CIA an DIA program documents were collected and inventoried. In June of 1995, CIA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) then contracted with AIR for this external review, based on our long-standing expertise in carrying out studies relating to behavioral science issues and our neutrality with respect to the subject matter. Evaluation Objectives The CIA asked AIR to address a number of key objectives during the technical review of Star Gate. These included: ° a comprehensive evaluation of the research and development in this area, with a focus on the validity of the technical approach(es) according to acceptable scientific standards. ° an evaluation of the overall program utility or usefulness to the government. The CIA believes that the controversial nature of past parapsychology programs within the intelligence community, and the scientific controversy clouding general acceptance of the validity of paranormal phenomena, demand that these two issues of utility and scientific validity be addressed separately. . consideration of whether any changes in the operational or research and development activities of the program might bring about improved results if the results were not already optimum. @ American Institutes for Researc 1-4 Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5
nem em te a Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5 a Chapter One: Background and History ° develop recommendations for the CIA as to appropriate strategies for program activity in the future. We were directed to base our findings on the data and information provided as a result of DIA and CIA program efforts, since it was neither possible nor intended that we review the entire field of parapsychological research and its applications. Also, we would not review or evaluate the "Foreign Assessment" component of the program. In the next chapter, we present our methodology for conducting the evaluation. A major component of the evaluation was to commission two nationally-regarded experts to review the program's relevant research studies, their findings are presented in Chapter 3, along with our analysis of areas of agreement and disagreement. In Chapter 4, we present our findings concerning the operational component of the program. Finally, in Chapter 5 we present our conclusions and recommendations. @ American Institutes for Research 1-5 Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5
en ne A Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5 2. Evaluation Plan The broad goal of the present effort was to provide a thorough and objective evaluation of the remote viewing program. Because of the multiple components of the program, a multifaceted evaluation plan was devised. As mentioned previously, only the research and intelligence gathering components of the program were considered here. In this section, we describe the general approach used in evaluating these two components of the program, beginning with the research program. Remote Viewing Research The Research Program. The government-sponsored research program had three broad objectives. The first and primary objective was to provide scientifically compelling evidence for the existence of the remote viewing phenomenon. It could be argued that if unambiguous evidence for the existence of the phenomenon cannot be provided, then there is little reason to be concerned with its potential applications. The second objective of the research program was to identify causal mechanisms that might account for or explain the observed (or inferred) phenomenon. This objective of the program is of some importance; an understanding of the origins of a phenomenon provides a basis for developing potential applications, Further, it provides more compelling evidence for the existence of the phenomenon (Cook & Campbell, 1979; James, Muliak, & Brett, 1982), Thus, in conducting a thorough review, an attempt must be made to assess the success of the program in developing an adequate explanation of the phenomenon. The third objective of the research program was to identify techniques or procedures that might enhance the utility of the information provided by remote viewings. For example, how might more specific information be obtained from viewers and what conditions set boundaries on the accuracy of viewings? Research along those lines is of interest primarily because it provides the background necessary for operational applications of the phenomenon. The NRC provided a thorough review of the unclassified remote viewing research through 1986. In this review (summarized in Swets & Bjork, 1990), the nature of the research methods led the reviewers to question whether there was indeed any effect that could - American institutes for Researe 2 Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5