Approved For Release 20949@1R -feIh-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN (U) participant was constrained to provide a few trials (< 5) at each sitting. The analysis that was used is described in Section III.A. (U) From a purely mechanistic point of view, we might expect that locating a dynamically-moving target would be “easier” than a static one. Because the target is moving once a millisecond, the target is, on the average, actually “under” the mouse button twice each second. Thus, two times a second, the participant has the opportunity to locate the target correctly. He/she must, however, press the mouse button at the proper time (finding a dynamically-moving target translates to finding a moment in time to initiate a response). In the static case, it is possible (worst case) that the location will never be under the mouse button, because the RVer, in moving the button display around the screen, misses the actual location. Thus, we would expect a bias in favor of finding the dynamic target simply because the number of opportunities of registering the correct response is greater. (U) The results of the basic investigation are shown in Table 5. Five of the seven participants produced significant evidence of psychoenergetic functioning (p < 0.0004). Of these five, three produced results favoring the timing hypothesis, and two favored the “dowsing” hypothesis. Two participants produced significant differences between temporal and spatial “dowsing;” one (#531) favoring temporal, the other (#807) favoring spatial. Participant 531 showed a 27 percent reduction from the mean chance expectation (MCE) distance of 10.4 units, while Participant 807 showed a 16.1 percent reduction. Overall, there is strong evidence that individuals can locate abstract computer generated targets, yet there is no evidence that there is a preference for the timing technique. 2. (U) Location of Real-World Targets (Known) (S/NF/CL-3) The first step in determining if the CAS technique is capable of locating unknown DoD targets of interest, is to demonstrate that the technique can be applied to real-world targets whose locations are known. This step has been taken under client—controlled test conditions, as described in Section G. -22- SECRET CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For Release 0SECR PF RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN Table 5 (U) RESULTS OF BASIC INVESTIGATION (p-values) *Tested against the hypothesis that time > space. Significant trarget avoidance. UNCLASSIFIED 3. (U) CAS Against Real Targets (Application) (S/NF/CL-3) As a final test, can CAS techniques be used to locate unknown targets that are of interest to the DoD? The use of both static and dynamic techniques will be considered. (U) In the case of the latter, a useful technique is to divide the search space into N regions. A counter is incremented once each millisecond as before, but it begins at one and recycles after N + 1. The extra cell is used to cover the case of “none of the above”. To illustrate how this technique might work, let us consider the case of a kidnap victim who is suspected of being held somewhere in the west Beruit area. This area is divided into 20 regions of interest. (The CAS counter then cycles through 21.) A large number of trials are collected for a given participant, and a large number of participants could be used. Statistics developed during the known target portion of the study would be used as an input to the —-23- SECRET TER LANE-3/NOFOR Approved For Release 3003/09/10 : CIA- RDP96- 00788R001800260001-5
Approved For Release 20G S071 :E1f-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN (U) a evaluation program to determine the most likely location. Should this technique prove successful, it has wide application beyond the spatial location of targets of interest. Because the CAS algorithm only involves selecting the proper moment to register a response, the meaning of the numbers used in the cycle counter is completely arbitrary, and thus can correspond to the elements of any discrete search problem. G.  (S/NF/CL-3) Client-Controlled Long-Distance Test of “Agent”/Building Search, Facility Level (Continuum) (S/NF/CL-3) As a measure of progress made during the contract effort, a test was proposed in which the Search team put together by SRI would attempt to locate targets chosen by, and under the control of, the client (Army INSCOM). For this purpose two experimental series were designed and carried out. 1. (U) Long-Distance “Agent” Search (S/NF/CL-3) For the first test series, Army INSCOM personnel chose a series of ten locations on the Ft. Meade, Maryland, base. Each of the ten locations were to be visited, in turn, for one hour, at predetermined times, by an INSCOM “agent.” Members of the Search team where given a photograph of the “agent” to be located, a listing of the target times (1100 and 1600, EST, on 28-30 November, and on 3-4 Dec.), and a map of the Ft. Meade base marked with a 1.5 km x 1.5 km square indicating the overall target area of iterest. (U) Four Search RVers were chosen for this task (Nos. 164, 688, 198, and 232), three of whom demonstrated success in other search tasks covered in this report, the fourth (#232) being reported as having been successful in experiments conducted in a training class taught by one of the others (#198). During the time~frame of the experiment, two of the RVers were located in California (Nos.164 and 688), while the remaining two were in Florida. Thus, the experiment was carried out over baselines of several thousand km. (S/NF/CL-3) The experiment was carried out with the SRI researchers blind as to the target locations (that is, the experiment was double blind.) At the end of the targeting period, the search-determined locations were transmitted to INSCOM, after which a list of the actual target locations used were made available to the SRI team. —-24- SECRET CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 UNCLASSIFIED (U) In the 2.25 km square area, the mean chance expectation (MCE) distance is 780 m. Of the four Search RVers, all generated lesser mean distances (see Table 6), and the results of three of the RVers are each independently statistically significant. In the forty trials generated (4 RVers x 10 trials each), 20 percent (8) yielded target-response distances within 3 squares (225 m) on the 400-square matrix used for analysis; this includes a direct hit which is expected only once in 400 trials by chance. The overall combined probability for this 40-trial series can be determined from the raw data -4 2Z= 0’ Pp Ss 2.5 x 10 Thus, this test under client-controlled double-blind conditions yields convincing evidence that psychoenergetic search processes can to a Statistically significant degree be used as a viable search tool. Table 6 (U) LONG-DISTANCE “AGENT” SEARCH: CLIENT-DETERMINED TARGET SITES (MCE Distance = 780 m) Mean Target Area Response ; Reduction Distance —3 2.62 * 10 * 0.39 —2 1.45 * 10 ~2 4.65 * 10 *Nonsignificant. UNCLASSIFIED (U) An additional facet that surfaced in the above application was the fact that, due to scheduling conflicts, some percentage of the search attempts were carried out at some -~25- UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 UNCLASSIFIED (U) time following the target period, ranging from as little as a few minutes to as much as two days. In these cases, the RVer nonetheless concentrated on the scheduled past time period, rather than on the (present) time of the actual search attempt. Detailed examination of the data generated by the three significant RVers shows that although 40 percent each of their data was produced on this retrospective basis, there was no statistically significant difference between the real-time and retrospective conditions (one-way analysis of variance, df1 = 1, df2 = 8, F = 0.54, 2.40, and 1.51, respectively, for RVers 164, 198 and 232: F = 5.32 required for significant differences at the p = 0.05 level). 2. (U) Long-Distance “Building” Search (U) The dynamic CAS technique was used to attempt to locate 2 building at the sponsor’s facility, that building being known only to the sponsor. A map of the sponsor’s facility, unlabeled as to buildings, was divided into 20 numbered equal-area rectangles in a 4 X 5 matrix, ( 4 columns, 5 rows). Thus, starting in the upper left corner, the upper row contained rectangles 1 - 4; the second row, 5 — 8; third row 9 - 12; fourth row, 13 - 16; fifth (bottom) row, 17 — 20. (U) An incremental counter was used to cycle through the numbers 1 — 20 at a rate of 1 millisecond each. A search RVer’s task was to interrupt the counter (by pressing the ”mouse” button) at the number corresponding to the map area that contains the building designated as ”target” by the sponsor, given only the name of the building (Whitesell . building). For each RVer, a histogram is constructed. corresponding to the number of times he/she selects each of the numbers. (U) The two individuals ( 531 and 859 ) who had done well in the abstract experiment in timing were asked to provide 50 trials each to start; in the event an individual’s selections resulted in a tie or ties for a maximally—selected rectangle, trials were added in 5-trial blocks until a single choice was outstanding. In the case of 531, 55 trials were required to meet this criterion; for 859, 75 were required. (U) In Figure 6 we display the histograms for each participant. For RVer 531, the expected number of choices for each rectangle is 55/20 = 2.75; the maximally-selected rectangle ( #17 ) was chosen 6 times, the second choice ( #14 ) was chosen 5 times. For RVer 859, the expected number of choices for each rectangle is 75/20 = 3.75; the maximally~selected ( #6 ) was chosen 7 times, the second choice (nos. 4 and 18, a tie ) - 26 - UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For CONCLA SSlETE| 6-00788R001800260001-5 (U) was chosen 6 times. Following RVer selections, the answer ( rectangle #15 ) was provided to the experimenters, who, in turn, provided it to the search RVers as feedback. (U) With regard fo evaluation of the results, as in the previous section one can use the 400-square matrix to calculate the probability of observed separations between target and response rectangle centers as compared with the MCE distance. For RVer 531, the first-choice selection yields a target/response rectangle separation distance somewhat greater than MCE ( 3.4% ), while the second choice yields a better result, a 52.0% reduction from MCE. For RVer 859, the first-choice selection yields a 9.5% reduction from MCE, while the second (a tie ) yields one result at 38.5% reduction from MCE, a second at 24.8% greater than MCE distance. Given the small-sample nature of this particular pilot test of the CAS technique, it is not possible to draw meaningful statistical conclusions. We are nonetheless encouraged by observation of relatively large reductions from MCE among the top two selections for each of the search RVers, and therefore consider this procedure a promising candidate for further development. 10 and 859 C7 percipients 531 8+ Number 6 of Choices 12 13 14 15 16 17:18 19 20 UNCLASSIFIED Map Position FIGURE 6 CHOICE HISTOGRAM -27- UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For Release 2083f@ Rt Bik-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN V SUMMARY (U) A. (U) Overview (S/NF/CL-3) The research effort described in this report addresses the continuing requirement in military operations to develop techniques to locate tactical and strategic targets of interest whose positions are not known, or are known only approximately. Specifically, we have investigated the possible use of psychoenergetic search techniques as an adjunct to other technological means. Experiments have been carried out, examining several promising methods that have emerged in the field over the past decade or so. Care has been taken to assess the various procedures under strict double-blind conditions, and have included successful application to the location of targets under client control over baselines of several thousand km. B. (U) Focus of Investigation (U) In this study the search techniques under consideration have been investigated in applications ranging from the locations of objects hidden in the same building as the search RVer, to the search for an individual or building over transcontinental baselines. The methods examined range from simple one-step map marking (“map dowsing”), to calculator— and computer-assisted search involving sophisticated statistical averaging techniques. (U) Strong evidence emerged in this study that certain individuals using certain techniques were capable of narrowing down the area of target location to a Statistically significant degree, indicating the basic viability of the psychoenergetic approach as a search tool. — 28 - SECRET CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For "ONCLASSIFIED 800260001-5 Cc. (U) Recommendations for Follow-On Actions (U) Given the quality of response to the search task, and the observations emerging from detailed examination of various facets of that response, the following recommendations for follow-on actions are offered: 1. Since various individuals showed “preferences” for various tasks (as far as their capabilities were concerned), examine personality profiles obtained for these individuals, and determine by testing with other individuals if personality structure is an important factor. 2. Given the apparent relative insensitivity to RVer-target baseline distance emerging in this pilot work, examine this variable in depth in further studies. 3. Given the apparent relative insensitivity to temporal distance between RVer and target event (at least for retrospective conditions) observed in this pilot work, examine this variable in further depth. 4. Investigate further the power of statistical averaging techniques to determine whether the modest amplification obtained with such techniques to date can be improved significantly, 5. Follow up on statements by Search RVers that success is often associated with certain physiological sensations (e.g., “stickiness” in the fingers during “map dowsing”), by investigating the possibility of using physiological—correlate measures to obtain a more sensitive indicator of “signal” detection. - 29 ~ UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5