Approved For Release 2ooo/oaNbuth roP96-00789R002900240002-3 KEY INTELLIGENCE TASK (91004) S/NF/LIMDIS) What are the political/military indicators, and possible location of indicators, that would precede an imminent Iraqi attack, if any? (S/NF/LIMDIS) Source A assessment: (DOI: 16 Jan 91) a. Preemptive Iraqi strikes are not anticipated in the near future (1-2 weeks). b. Weather (rainstorms) will be a problem in the southern area in 3-5 days (19-21 Jan). c. Some heavy equipment movement (east to west) is anticipated in near term in Kuwait (area A on FIG 1). ad. Within 1-3 days (1.e., 17-17 Jan 91), Iraq will launch missiles (into Saudi Arabia areas): - Front line troops will not advance. e. Future potential strikes may occur in area B, FIG l.. f. Iraq amy have two "special" weapons: - Some type of "interference" device that causes electronic/mechanical equipment to "freeze up" or (lose effectiveness). - Some type of energetic/beam-type device may be located in the sand in area C, FIG 1. (S/NF/LIMDIS) Source B assessment (DOI: 16 Jan 91) a. Iraqi preemptive action is not anticipated until after February 1991: - A surprise attack may occur from the Kuwait side in early February. b. This conflict will result in a new Iraq leader by the April time frame. (S/NF/LIMDIS) Source C assessment (DOI: 15 Jan 91) a. There will be considerable aircraft activity (north, toward Turkey border): - Some old slow (transport-like) aircraft are involved. b. Large groups of objects, now buried in the sand, will be uncovered. LIMITED DISTRIBUTION NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 2000/GREPIA-RDP96-00789R002900240002-3 Appendix B Classifted by DF rer
Approved For Release 2000/08 $8 Rt [A-RDP96-00789R002900240002-3 c. Something like communications, or command and control, with lower ranking individuals will be shutdown (or turned off). d. Sense of disbelief (by high level people). e. Some sort of abandonment occurs (in many areas). f. SCUD missile launches will be used as a distractor: Outskirts of Riyada is one target area. g. Aircraft carriers and hospital ships are targets (via aircraft suicide runs, missiles). h. Some type of "activity" is planned in vicinity of Mecca. i. Hussein's attitude is ruthless; not concerned about world opinion. (S/NF/LIMDIS) Source D assessment (DOI: 15 Jan 91) - Iraq may initiate preemptive attack into Saudi Arabia (vicinity of 30 degrees 20 minutes North/43 degrees 15 minutes East). Time frame unclear, though some type of activity (indicator) may occur night of 14 Jan 91: -- considerable aircraft activity will precede. -- Some type of “light beam/heat" may be associated with the possible assault. (S/NF/LIMDIS) Source E assessment (DOI: 16 Jan 91) a. Hussein will not back out Kuwait. b. Hussein will not move politically or militarily in near future. c. Saudi Arabia oil wells are targeted: - Terrorist activity anticipated against Shell Oil Co. d. Attacks (Iraq or US) not anticipated (in near future). (S/NF/LIMDIS) All sources (A-E) assessment (DOI: 16 Jan 91) a. Sources generally indicate that near term (1-2 weeks) preemptive strikes will not occur. b. Sources are mixed as to possible long term preemptive strike areas; candidate areas include central south Kuwait border, or a central area along the Irag/Saudi Arabia border. LIMITED DISTRIBUTION NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 2008 RARE : CIA-RDP96-00789R002900240002-3
Approved For Release ovor08i09¢ ek eop96-00789R002900240002-3 c. Two sources anticipates special (surprise) weapons; another anticipates near term SCUD strikes into Saudi Arabia as well as suicide strikes against allied ships. d. One source does not anticipate Iraq backing out of Kuwait. LIMITED DISTRIBUTION NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 2000/0aMWAETA-RDP96-00789R002900240002-3
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