Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4 ADVANCES IN REMOTE-VIEWING ANALYSIS. By Epwin C. May, Jessica M. Utts, BEVERLY S. HUMPHREY, WANDA L. W. Luke, THANE J. FRIVOLD, AND VIRGINIA V. ‘TRASK eee ABSTRACT: Fuzzy set technology is applied to the ongoing research question of how to automate the analysis of remote-viewing data. Fuzzy sets were invented to describe, in a formal way, the subjectivity inherent in human reasoning. Applied to remote-viewing analysis, the technique involves a quantitative encoding of target and response material and provides a formal comparison. In this progress report, the accuracy of a response is defined as the percent of the intended target material that is described correctly. The reliability is defined as the percent of the response that was correct. The assessment of the remote-viewing quality is defined as the product of accuracy and reliability, called the figure of merit. The procedure is applied to a test set of six remote-viewing trials. A comparison of the figures of merit with the subjective assessments of 37 independent analysts shows good agreement. The fuzzy set technology is also used to provide a quantitative defini- tion of target orthogonality. eee Human analysts are commonly used to evaluate free-response data. Although there are many variations, the basic idea is that an analyst, who is blind to the actual result, is presented with a re- sponse and a number of target possibilities, one of which is the in- tended target. The analyst’s task is to decide what is the best re- sponse/target match, and frequently includes rank-ordering the targets from best to worst correspondence with the response. It is beyond the scope of this report to provide a critical review of the extensive literature on this topic. One aspect, however, of this type of evaluation is that analysts are required to make global judgments about the overall match be- tween a complex target (e.g., a photograph of a natural scene) and an equally complex response (e.g., written words and drawings). In a recent book, Dawes (1988) has discussed various decision algo- rithms in general and the difficulty with global techniques, such as those used in rank-order evaluation, in particular.' According to Dawes, the research results suggest that global decisions of this type are not as good as those based on smaller subelements that are later "We are indebted to Professor D. Bem, Cornell University, for directing us to this valuable source of information. CPYRGHT 3 : CIA-RDP96-00789R0031001 20001 -4
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