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A different view of this same data is shown in Figure
1 as the distribution of scores for each
four-trial series for each group.
For example, 26% and 35% of the Mensa responses achieved
scores of 1 and 2, respectively.
For the Peninsula and Palo Alto Stanford group, the percentages
are 48 and 29, and 33 and 17, respectively.
Quantitatively, the means of the distributions differ
slightly (see Table 4).
However, two-sample t-tests show significant differences between all pairs
of means of the three groups.
Table 5 shows the t-test statistics including the effect size for the
pairs.
Table 4
Parameters of the Scoring Distributions
Statistic
Peninsula Stanford
Club
San Francisco
Mensa
Stanford Alumni Club
of Palo Alto
Number of
104
412
479
Viewings*
Mean Score
1.490
1.735
1.044
Standard Deviation
0.878
1.129
1.079
*
Not
all participants submitted responses for
all trials; therefore, the number of viewings
does not equal four times the number of participants.
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Table 5
Two-Sample t-Test Results
Statistic
Mensa/Peninsula
Mensa/Palo Alto
Peninsula/Palo Alto
Two Sample t
2.061
9.337
3.947
Degrees of Freedom
514
889
581
p-Value
0.020
5.0 X
10"21
4.5 X
10'5
Effect Size
0.025
0.299
0.006
As measured by the effect size, the only “meaningful” comparison is between San Francisco
Mensa with the Stanford Alumni Club of Palo Alto.
It is premature to conclude, however, that
something exists within Mensa that predisposes
its members toward possessing remote viewing
ability.
There are a number of problems that prevent such a conclusion.
First of all, the analyst
was not blind to the groups, and thus could distort the scoring.
Even
if the analyst were blind,
however,
such
a
conclusions would
still be unwarranted, because
of the
lack
of
statistical
independence among the subjects. Additional circumstantial evidence in favor of Mensa would be
realized if the seven individuals chosen for the second-stage screening continue to demonstrate
high-quality remote viewing ability.
C.
Second-Stage Results
Although there were a total of eight persons from the
first-stage screening who showed
qualitative
evidence
of
potential
exceptional
remote
viewing
abilities,
none
participated
in
second-stage screening in FY 1989 becasue of timing and/or availability.
These eight individuals
will be
invited to participate in invidualized second-stage screenings
as part
of the FY 1990
screening work.
In accordance with the FY 1989 Statement of Work-Task 6.0.5, we asked a long-time
remote viewer who has produced quality
results in dream and Ganzfeld studies conducted
at
Maimonides Medical Center in the Division of Parapsychology (1972-1978), to participate in a
second-stage screening.
Table 7 shows the target and the rank assignments for each of Viewer
389’s eight trials. The resulting sum of ranks was 11
(p <
0.0025, effect size = 1.01). A 75%
hitting rate (6 of 8 first-place matches) where the mean expectation
is 25% is the best we have
obtained for any of our second-stage screenings during the past two years. Viewer 389 has joined
our research program and
is currently participating in one experiment.
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Table 6
Results of Second-Stage Screening with Viewer 389
Session #
Target
Rank
Project Blue Book
Manhattan Project
Skiing
Atomic Bomb Blasts
Tacoma Narrows Bridge
Greek Temple
Tacoma Narrows Bridge
Project Deep Quest
D.
Conclusions
In the past, the group screening procedure has been successfull in selecting people with
natural remote viewing ability.
Two individuals from approximately 200 were asked to become
regular remote viewers in the Cognitive Sciences Program,
Because
of
scheduling
difficulties,
successfull
candidates
from
this
year’s
first-stage
screening have yet to participate in the second—stage.
Even
if all of these candidates satisfy the
second-stage requirements,
this screening procedure
is a labor-intensive and time-consuming
method of identifying individuals with natural ability for high quality remote viewing.
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