Approved For Release aE Segoe OTBTROOOZOOTSONOS-1 iAL ORD 2240-75 This table can be restructured as a two-by-six table as follows: . Forward 764 765 790 773 863 773 Backward 777 776 787 796 B52 803 The table thus restructured brings together all possible non-identity transitions viewed as state~- airs, For instance, Col, 1 shows that there were 764 transitions from the yellow gtate to the green state and there were 777 transitions from the green state to the yellow state. Under the hypothesis that all state transitions are equally probable and equally affected by chance the observed frequency with which forward transitions occur should be unrelated to that with which backward transitions occur in the same pair. This condition is not met. There is a very strong relationship between the observed forward and back- ward transition frequencies. The coefficient of correlation between frequencies for these two directions, computed across all six possible non-identity transitions is .93, (p< .01) (ses attached graph). This finding shows that there were, in fact, systematic pair-wise biases associated with the electronic processes by which the transitions were selected. The finding that the forward and backward transitions are Closely associated with respect to joint probability of occurrence suggests that they can be considered as having been drawn from the same population. To test this, we computed the forward and backward mean and the Standard Deviation (SD) of the observed frequencies. They are: Mean = SD Forward 7ae8 37.9 Backward 798 28.25 The standard error of the difference between these two means is 18.89 while the difference between them is only ten, clearly Approved For Release 2000/08/10.: P96-00787R000200150005-1
Approved For Release 2GRRIR RE REAP 96-00787R000200150005-1 ORD 2240-75 these data may be merged. Merging them provides the following table: ; y/o Y/R = Y/R G/B G/R ss B/R Total Observed Frequency 1541 1541 1577 1569 1715 1876 9519 Expected Frequenc Under Null . Hypothesis 1586.5 1566.5 1586.5 1586.5 1586.5 1586.5 9519 Chi Square 1.305 1.305 .057 «193 10.408 .069 Total Chi Square = 13.337 df=5 p=.02 In the above table it can be seen that the large excess of observed transitions involving the red-green pair is significant at the .02 level. Inspection of the observed frequencies reveals that there are almost ten percent more transitions involving the red-green pair than the average of the other five possible non- 4dentity transitions. These results suggest that adepting (for whatever conscious: or unconscious reason) a strategy of "When green, press red, when red, press green and, otherwise use the 'pass' button as much as possible" will increase one's hit score. Using an instrument with the above-described cheracteristics and strategies such as this is certain to produce "statistically significant" results, given enough triais and the assunption of random transition probabilities. Other biases also exist which could form the bases of other enhancing strategies but the above discussion would seem adequate to establish the existence of non-randomness which we have suggested. The report available to us contains data only upon one test of one instrument. It must, therefore, be assumed that the other instruments demonstrated non-random characteristics of a similar nature. Further, the report does not reveal which subject used 3 Approved For Release ee ; as Sees OONZ00T B00"
= Approved For Release 200/(N6 [DL EAaihas -00787R000200150005-1 ORD 2240-75 which instrument so we are unable to ascertain whether or not subject number 2's results could be due to the effects discussed above, but the magnitude of the effect is adequate to explain the results if one assumes the adoption of a selection strategy which "capitalizes" upon the non-random characteristics which are demonstrably present. ISITE SG1I Attachment Distribution: Original § 1 - Addressee, w/att 1 - LSR File, w/att LSR Chrono, w/att ORD Chrono, w/att 1 LSR/ORD/DD/S&T RE: mav: 3191 1 SG1I Approved For Release 2000/08/40 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150005-1 =e