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Final  Report- -Objective  A,  Task  4 
December  1986 
J 
REMOTE  VIEWING  EVALUATION  TECHNIQUES  (U) 
j 
By:  BEVERLY  S.  HUMPHREY  VIRGINIA  V.  TRASK 
EDWIN  C.  MAY  MARTHA  J.  THOMSON 
Prepared  for: 
PETER  J.  McNELIS,  DSW 
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Final  Report- -Objective  A,  Task  4 
Covering  the  Period  1   October  1985  to  30  September  1986 
December  1986 
REMOTE  VIEWING  EVALUATION  TECHNIQUES  (U) 
By:  BEVERLY  S.  HUMPHREY  VIRGINIA  V.  TRASK 
EDWIN  C.  MAY  MARTHA  J.  THOMSON 
Prepared  for: 
PETER  J.  McNELIS,  DSW 
CONTRACTING  OFFICER'S  TECHNICAL  REPRESENTATIVE 
CONTRACT  DAMD  17-85-C-5130 
SRI  Project  1291 
SG1A 
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ROBERT  S.  LEONARD,  Executive  Director  This  document  consists  of  37  pages. 
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ABSTRACT  (U) 
(U)  A   simplified  automated  procedure  is  suggested  for  the  analysis  of  free-response 
material.  As  in  earlier  similar  procedures,  the  target  and  response  materials  are  coded  as 
yes/no  answers  to  a   set  of  questions  (descriptors).  By  definition,  this  coding  defines  the 
complete  target  and  response  information.  The  accuracy  of  the  response  is  defined  as  the 
percent  of  the  target  material  that  is  correctly  described  (i.e.,  the  number  of  correct  response 
bits  divided  by  the  number  of  target  bits  =   1).  The  reliability  of  the  response  is  defined  as 
the  percent  of  the  response  that  is  correct  (i.e.,  the  number  of  correct  response  bits  divided 
by  the  total  number  of  response  bits  =   1).  The  figure  of  merit  is  the  product  of  the  accuracy 
and  reliability.  The  advantages  and  weaknesses  of  the  figure  of  merit  are  discussed  with 
examples.  Mean  chance  expectations  (MCE)  are  calculated  for  the  figure  of  merit,  and 
recommendations  are  made  to  extend  current  techniques  and  to  explore  new  technologies. 
ii 
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TABLE  OF  CONTENTS  (U) 
ABSTRACT   
ii 
LIST  OF  ILLUSTRATIONS    
       iv 
LIST  OF  TABLES      
v 
I  INTRODUCTION       1 
II  METHOD  OF  APPROACH     3 
A.  Figure  of  Merit  Analysis  
1.  Overview     3 
2,  Mathematical  Formalism    
a.  Definitions  
b.  Linear  Least-Squares  Analysis   6 
c.  Mean  Chance  Expectation    7 
d.  Probability  Assessment  and  Analysis    
B.  Fuzzy  Set  Theory — An  Enhancement  Technique  for  Descriptor  List 
Technology     11 
1.  Overview     11 
2.  A   Tutorial       12 
3.  Initial  Application  to  RV  Evaluation     14 
4.  Potential  Future  Applications     14 
III  RESULTS      16 
A.  Inter-Analyst  Reliability  Factors   
*     16 
B.  Response  Definition:  Descriptor  List  Formulation     19 
1.  Novice  Response  Descriptor  List     19 
2.  Advanced  Response  Descriptor  List  
C.  Target  Definition:  Implications  for  Target  Pool  Composition    25 
IV  RECOMMENDATIONS   
A.  Similarity  Experiment  
B.  AI  Techniques   28 
C.  In-House  Effort   29 
V   CONCLUSIONS      31 
REFERENCES   32 
iii 
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Approved  For  Release  2000/08/10  :   CIA-RDP96-00789R003800450001-1 
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LIST  OF  ILLUSTRATIONS  (U) 
1.  An  MCE  Figure  of  Merit  Distribution          9 
2.  The  Fuzzy  Set  “Very  Young"     13 
3.  Comparison  Between  Types  of  Analysts     19 
4.  Baylands  Nature  Interpretive  Center,  With  RV  Response   
IV 
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