TARRKOVES Fon. Release 2009/08/08 - CIA-RDP96-0 789R003100120001 -4 arge ender Deperidencies in Anomalous Cognition DRAFT ll. INTRODUCTION The field of parapsychology has been interested in improving the quality of responses to target material since the 1930’s when J. B. Rhine first began systematic laboratory studies of extra sensory perception. Since that time, much of the field’s effort has been oriented toward psychological factors that may influ- " ence anomalous cognition (AC). In this section, we review the pertinent literature that describes at- tempts to improve the quality of AC by categorizing target content. At a recent conference, Delanoy reported on a survey of the literature for successful AC experiments, and, she categorized the target material according to perceptual, psychological and physical character- istics.1* Except for trends related to dynamic, multi-sensory targets, she was unable to observe system- atic correlations of AC quality with her target categories. Watt examined the AC-target question from a theoretical perspective.2 She concluded that the “best” AC targets are those that are meaningful, have emotional impact, and contain human interest; those targets that have physical features that stand out from their backgrounds or contain movement, novelty, and incongruity are also good targets. The difficulty with either the survey of the experimental literature or the psychologically oriented theoretical approach is that understanding the sources of the variation in AC quality is problematical. Using a vision analogy, sources of visual material are easily understood (i.e., photons); yet, the percept of vision is not well understood. Psychological and possibly physiological factors influence what we “see.” In AC research, the same difficulty arises. Until we understand the influence of these factors on the AC percept, results of systematic studies of AC are difficult to interpret. Yet, in a few cases, some progress has been realized. In 1990, Honorton et al. conducted a careful meta- analysis of the experimental Ganzfeld literature.> In Gansfeld experiments, receivers are placed in a state of mild sensory isolation and asked to describe their mental imagery. After each trial, the analysis was performed by the receiver, who was asked to rank order four pre-defined targets, which include the actual target and three decoys; the chance first-place rank hitting rate was 0.25. In 355 trails collected from 241 different receivers, Honorton et al. found a hitting rate of 0.31 (z = 3.89, p <5 x 10-5) for an effect size of 0.20. In addition, he found that AC quality was significantly enhanced when the targets were video clips from popular movies (i.c., dynamic) as opposed to static photographs (i.e., effect sizes of 0.32 and 0.05, respectively). All trials were conduced with a sender. In a carefully conducted meta-analysis, Honorton and Ferrari report significant hitting in forced- choice, precognition experiments.4t They analyzed 53 years of experiments conducted by 62 different investigators using a limited set of symbols (i.e., called Zener cards) as target material. Fifty thousand * References may be found at the end of the document. tT Forced-choice means targets are randomly chosen from a known and limited set of possibilities (e.g., red or black playing cards). Precognition means that the target is generated randomly after the guess has been registered. Approved For Release a abn Redey BHAREPI6-00789R003100120001-4
TEMARRAV ERE QU: Re fet SRASQA OLD BOR i chehties PRAGA ARK BURG ASAO 1 20001 -4 DRAFT subjects contributed a total of approximately 2 x 10° individual trials. The overall effect size was 0.020 corresponding to a p-value of 6.3x107*°. Similarly, in an earlier review article, Honorton analyzed 7.5 X 10° forced-choice Zener card trials that were collected from 1934 to 1939 and found a significant overall effect size of 0.016-L0.001. Puthoff and Targ publish the results of 39 AC real-time trials where the targets were natural scenes in the San Francisco Bay area. The effect size for the 39 trials was 1.15. Table 1 summarizes these results for each target type: Table 1. Effect Size as a Function of Target Type The effect sizes shown in Table 1 are qualitatively monotonically related to target “complexity;” yet an appropriate quantitative description for target type is currently unknown. Yet, target “complexity” was one of the experimentally observed and theoretically conceived target concepts found by Delanoy and Watt, respectively. A number of confounds exist, however, in this database for the effect-size measures. For example, in all but the Puthoff and Targ study (i.e., targets were natural scenes), the receivers were unselected. That is, they did not participate in the various experiments on the basis of their known ability as receivers. So, is the large effect size for the Puthoff and Targ study because of the accomplished receivers, the natural- scene targets, or some combination of both? While there are a number of other exceptions, the prepon- derance of the data were from unselected individuals. In many of the trials, a sender was concentrating on the target material, and as in most perception experiments, psychological factors and boredom con- tribute to the variance in the effect sizes. In this pilot experiment, we will apply one physical measure to static and dynamic photographs to quan- tify the relationship between target type and AC quality. By careful selection of target content, we will minimize the psychological factors in perception. In addition, we will minimize individual differences by conducting many trials with each receiver and by only choosing receivers who have previously dem- onstrated excellent AC skill. Because the previous database included trials with and without senders, we will explore the effects of a sender on AC quality, as weil. Approved For Release OPS SE DOH PT 96-00789R003100120001-4
ARRAY ERE: RAAT RANA BOR GHAI RRR AATRRGAR AO 120001-4 DRAFT ill. APPROACH 1. Target-pool Selection The static target material for this pilot study will be an existing set of 100 National Geographic magazine photographs. This set has been divided into 20 sets of five photographs that were determined to be visually dissimilar by a fuzzy set analysis.? The dynamic target material will be approximately 50, 60 to 90 second clips from popular video movies. These clips will be selected because they: ® are thematically coherent, © contain obvious geometric elements (e.g., wings of air craft), and ® are emotionally neutral. The intent of these selection criteria is to control for cognitive surprise, to provide target elements that are easily sketched, and to control for psychological factors such as perceptual defensiveness. The video segments will be drawn from a variety of themes including adventure, documentary, and fantasy. 2. Target Preparation The target variable that we will consider in this experiment is the total change of entropy per unit area, per unit time. We have chosen this quantity because it is qualitatively related to the “complexity” of target type shown in Table 1, and because it represents a potential physical variable that is important in the detection of traditional sensory stimuli. In the case of image data, the entropy is defined as: N,-1 S,= - > Pjxlog[pje), j=0 where pjx is the probability of finding image intensity j of color k. In a standard, digitized, true color image, each pixel (i.e., picture element) contains eight binary bits of red, green, and blue intensity, re- spectively. That is, Ny is 256 (i.e., 28) for eachk, k =x g, b. The total change of the entropy in differential form is given by: dS, = VS,° ar+ Beat. (1) We must specify the spatial and temporal resolution before we can compute the total change of entropy for a real image. Henceforth, we drop the color index, k, and assume that all quantities are computed for each color and summed. Approved For Release TOR Re HA REF 26-00789R003 10012000174
TAPREDMSE ESE: RELEASE SONMPSB aks RD Rana BGS SBQNid,P 0120001 -4 DRAFT 2.1 Static Photographs Each target from the pool of 100 National Geographic magazine photographs will be scanned at 100 dots per inch (dpi) for eight bits of information of red, green, and blue intensity. At 0.25 inch spatial resolution, for example, this scanning density provides 625 pixels for each 0.25 x 0.25 in? patch to compute the Bj. For a specified resolution, the target photograph is divided into an integral number of macro-pixels ex- chiding a thin border, if necessary. The entropy for the (4) macro-pixel is computed as: N-1 Si; = S'2; log.{p; ), j=0 where pj is computed empirically from the pixels in the (4, /) macro-pixel only. For example, consider the target photograph shown in Figure 1. Figure 1. City with a Mosque Figure 2 shows the probability density for green macro-pixel (3,3), which is shown as a white square in the upper left hand corner of Figure 1." The probability density and the photograph indicates that most of the intensity in this patch is near zero value (i.e., no intensity of green in this case). In a similar fash- ion, Sj are calculated for the entire scene. For the photo graph shown in Figure 1, i ranges from zero to 43, and j ranges from zero to 32 for a total of 1,452 macro-pixels. * The original photograph was 8.5 x 11 inches, and we have standardized on 0.25 inch resolution. Approved For Release OR RE mA RPT 96-00789R003100120001-4
TOEAAIQY BA ToS RIGA SRA BOR felons MBAS EPRQARLAO 1 2000 1-4 DRAFT ad io Probability Densi FLL csucs Aas 40 Intensity (j) Figure 2. Green Intensity Distribution for the City Target (Macro-pixel 3,3). We will use a standard algorithm to compute the 2-dimensional spatial gradient of these 1,452 values of the entropy. Figure 3 shows contours of constant change of entropy (calculated from Equation 1) for the city target. The total change per unit area is 1.98 bits/0.25 in2.* Figure 3. City with Mosque (|AS| = 1.98 bits/0.25 in?). * In this formalism, entropy is in units of bits and the maximum entropy is 24 bits. Approved For Release ORI SITE Hy Alpe 6-00789R003100120001-4
TAREE SOE RECA SON P BUDE SHAS RRGAARLE LAG Nttd,P 0120001 -4 DRAFT The city target was chosen as an example because it was known (qualitatively) to be a “good” static photograph for AC trials in earlier research. Figure 4 shows contours of constant change of entropy for a photograph that was known not to be a “good” AC target. Figure 4. Pacific Islands (| AS| = 1.35 bits/0.25 in?). For comparison, we show in, Figure 5, the traditional Zener card set, which was used in most of the forced-choice experiments shown in Table 1 and described above. Figure 5. Zener Target Cards (Average | AS| = 0.15 bits/0.25 in?). Approved For Release ai pine HA RPEP96-00789R003100120001-4
TAPPEAVEARE: Regeea SOAMNBASnabrlAcRiW RAGNABS WBOMitd,0 0 120001 -4 DRAFT In Table 2, we modify Table 1 to show the values of AS (0.25 in)—? for two of four target types. Table 2. Potential Correlation of AS with Effect Size We illustrate in this table the intent of this pilot study. We will compute AS for all the static and dynamic targets and, using accomplished receivers, measure their associated AC effect sizes, 2.2 Dynamic Photographs The total change of entropy for the dynamic targets will be calculated in much the same way. The video target will be digitized at approximately one frame per second. The spatial term of Equation 1 will be computed exactly as it was for the static targets. The second term, however, will be computed from dif- ferences between adjacent frames. Or, 9Si; ~ AS;;(t) _ SiG + 4) - Si; (2) at At At , where Af is the one over the digitizing frame rate. We can see immediately that the dynamic targets will have a larger AS than do the static ones becuase Equation 2 is identically zero for all static targets. 2.3 Cluster Analysis As a result of the above calculations, the static and dynamic target sets will have associated sets of AS. Using standard cluster analysis, each set will be grouped into relatively orthoginal clusters of relatively constant 4S. Inspection and fuzzy set analysis will be used to construct packets of five visually dissimilar targets from within each cluster. Since we do not yet know how to assign entropy to an AC response, the AC analysis must be performed on the basis of visual discrimination. 3. Target Selection For a specified target type (e.g., static photographs), a target pack will be selected randomly and one target of the five within the that pack will also be chosen randomly. 4. Receiver Selection Six experienced receivers, who have produced significant AC effect sizes in previous investigations, will contribute 40 AC trials each. Each receiver will contribute ten trials in each of the conditions shown in Table 3. Approved For Release TF PED GAAP 26-00789R0031001 2000134
TAPREQEEBE REJEASR SOMMPSLDE uA RAGAAR8 SBD Rd,P 0120001 -4 DRAFT Table 3 Experiment Conditions 5. Sender Selection The sender for all trials will be the principal investigator (PI). 6. Session Protocol Before the pilot experiment begins, the experiment coordinator will generate, randomly, a counter bal- anced set of 20 dynamic and 20 static targets and, within each target type, generate randomly a counter balanced set of sender/no sender conditions. Each of the six receivers will have their own individual set of targets/conditions. For each receiver, the experiment coordinator will prepare 40 sealed envelopes containing the target number and condition for each trial. For the no-sender condition, the target num- ber will be sealed in a smaller internal envelope so that the PI will remain blind to the target choice, but in the sender condition, the target number is visible in the outer envelope. The receivers will be notified about the dates and times of day when their individual targets are available. For each trial and for each receiver, the PI will perform the following tasks: @ Determine from the above list, the target and sender condition. © In the sender condition, study the selected target and attempt to “transmit” it to the intended receiver. In the no-sender condition, do nothing @ At the conclusion of the 15 minute trial period and after the receipt of the receiver’s response by fac- simile, send a copy of the target material (i.c., either a photograph or video tape) to the receiver by over night mail. During each trial, the receiver will perform the following tasks: © Ata prearranged time, the receiver will find a quiet and lighted room in his or her home and sit at a desk. © Fora period lasting no longer than 15 minutes, the receiver will write and draw his or her impressions of the intended target material, which will be located in Lititz, PA. @ At the end of the AC trial, the subject will send the response by facsimile to the principal investigator (PI). @ By overnight mail, the subject will receive a copy of the actual target as feedback for the trial. We will not provide specific instructions beyond logistical information to the receivers, because they are all experienced in this type of task. For each receiver, the 40 trials will occur at a rate of three per week (i.e., one every other day) during a five-month period beginning in January 1992. There will be significant breaks during this period for Approved For Release ray siban eet) HAA EP96-00789R003100120001;4
TeaMpRAVERSLB GUI: Real Rag AAA BIR ions ABAENAATASRGARSAO120001-4 DRAFT holidays and to allow the receiver to participate in other experiments. The PI will maintain frequent phone contact with them during the experiment. At the end of the study, the PI will remove the receiver’s name, date, and time from each response; ran- domize the order within a receiver set; and provide an analyst with a set of responses and associated target packs. The indented target within each pack will not be disclosed. 7. Analysis For each trial, there is a single response and its associated target pack (.e., either static or dynamic). During the first part of the analysis, a judge, who is blind to the condition and target for the trial, will be asked to rank-order the targets within the given pack. This is a forced rank, so regardless of the quality of match between the response and targets within the pack, the judge must assign a first place match to the response, a second place match to the response, and so on for each of the five targets. The output from this part of the analysis is a rank-order number (i.c., one to five, one corresponding to a first place match) for the correct target. For each receiver, target type, and condition there are 10 such rank-order numbers that constitute a block of data. A rank-order effect size will be computed for a block as: éi; = ——, (3) where Rj is the average rank for target type i and sender condition j, and Rp is the expected average rank, which for this study is equal to three for all cases. In Equation 3, N is the number of possible ranks and is equal to five throughout this study. Thus, Equation 3 reduces to: R; i 3 Ej = = /2 During the second part of the analysis, a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) will be computed for each receiver. The main effects are target type and sender condition. In this part of the analysis, we do not plan to combine data across receivers. In the third part of the analysis we will construct a scatter diagram of rank-order number versus AS. Using a logistic transformation on the rank-order numbers, we will compute a linear correlation coeffi- cient to determine the degree to which AC quality linearly depends upon AS. By inspection of the scat- ter diagram, we will determine if higher-order correlations should be calculated. 8. Hypotheses 8.1 Null Hypothesis The overall null hypothesis is that ¢; will not be significantly different from zero. Even with only 10 trials in each condition and given that the historical effect size of many of the receivers is approximately 0.8, there is an 80% chance of observing a significant effect size for a given block of data. Approved For Release TREES BHARPP96-00789R003100120004 -4
TARAEAMGCLEST ReleAsty SRUPSIBE iiGHAsRA RIGARTSSBINAA NO 1 20001 -4 DRAFT 8.2 Sender and Target Condition Using an F-test we will test the hypothesis that the quality of AC does not depend upon a sender regard- less of target type. Similarly, we will use an F-test to test the hypothesis that the quality of AC does not depend upon target type regardless of the sender condition. The interaction terms in the ANOVA will test the hypothesis that a sender might improve AC quality for only a specific target type. 8.3 Target Entropy The AC quality of each trial is assessed within a given target type and as closely as possible with similar AS. Thus, a significant correlation between target 4S and AC quality will be a valid indication of the primary hypothesis that they are linearly related. Approved For Release roi BRE et) GAARPP96-00789R0031001 2000174
TésAREQMAG Set; RAYBPHU SANGLP BU niabr AoRM RPGTARLS BIOMed,0 0 120001 -4 DRAFT IV. DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS In this pilot investigation we will study the degree to which the change of target entropy affects the qual- ity of anomalous cognition, and we will explore the relationship of a sender to the AC process. There are a number of potential outcomes to this investigation and a number of post hoc analyses that could yield productive insight. We discuss these outcomes and analyses below. 1. Null Result At the 95% confidence level, no statistically significant deviations are observed for any of the block ef- fect sizes, ey. Ifa X? test for homogeneity of effect sizes across receivers demonstrates that the data are homogeneous (i.e., p(X”) > 0.05), then we conclude that the experiment failed to demonstrate signifi- cant AC functioning. In this case we will recommend that a replication be conducted with more trials, because there is a 20% chance the the data produced by a single receiver would not reach statistical significance even if an alternate hypotheses was true. That is, the Type II error is 20%. If, however, the effect sizes across receivers is not homogeneous (i.e., p(X“) = 0.05), then the data for each receiver will be examined individually. Depending upon available resources and the advice of the SOC, the receivers who may have demonstrated individually significant results might be asked to con- tribute additional data. 2. Significant Deviations The are a number of different ways, in accordance with the analysis described above, that significant deviations could be observed. 2.1 Dependency on Target Type Suppose that the ANOVA demonstrates significant effects for the target type regardless of the sender condition. Suppose further that we observe a significant correlation between 4S and AC quality. In this case, we would consider that the primary hypothesis (i.e., the change of target entropy is sensed by AC) has been confirmed. We would recommend that we extend the study to include natural scenes as target material. To do this properly, however, we must estimate the potential change of thermodynamic entro- py for real locations. 2.2 Dependency on Sender If the ANOVA demonstrates significant effects in support of a sender regardless of target type and there is no significant interaction terms between target type and sender condition, we would conclude that a sender can significantly improve the quality of AC. Furthermore, we would conclude, as Delanoy before us, that we still do not understand what constitutes an AC target. Approved For Release OREBHPE b HARPT 96-00789R003 10012000454
Téa Med Fie Rea ease 2QAQdO BNR riche ek ARAGARATALBGNAINO 120001 -4 DRAFT We would recommend, therefore, that a post hoc analysis be conducted to search for target systematics in the existing database. If any were found, we would formulate hypotheses to be tested in later studies. 2.3 Other Post Hoc Analyses Depending upon time and resources, we will re-analyze the AC data. Decoy targets for the blind rank- ing would be selected not on the basis of constant AS, but rather on a visual basis alone; this is the tradi- tional method usually employed in AC studies. Depending upon the content of the targets, there might be other dimensions that could be used to construct decoy targets (e.g,, function, physical proximity of target elements). There has been some indication in the literature that AC quality depends weakly upon the noise in the geomagnetic field. Since we routinely record the time, date, and location of each trial, we will add the results from this experiment to that analysis. Approved For Release OP BED GAAP 26-00789R003100120001;-4
Toop RRCAMEG Bicol: Rea lease 2QAQd BB iced oR ARAGAAATBURGAGINO120001-4 DRAFT V. GLOSSARY Not all the terms defined below are germane to the MEG study, but they are included here for com- pleteness. In a typical anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) task, we define: © Anomalous Cognition—A form of information transfer in which all known sensorial stimuli are ab- sent. That is, some individuals are able to gain access, by as yet an unknown process, to information that is not available to the known sensorial channels. © Receiver—An individual who attempts to perceive and report information about a target. © Agent—An individual who attempts to influence a target system. © Target—An item that is the focus of an AMP task (e.g., person, place, thing, event). e ignation—A method by which a specific target, against the backdrop of all other possible targets, is identified to the receiver (e.g., geographical coordinates). © Sender/Beacon—An individual who, while receiving direct sensorial stimuli from an intended target, acts as a putative transmitter to the receiver. e itor-—An individual who monitors an AC session to facilitate data collection. @ Session—A time period during which AC data is collected. @ Protocol——A template for conducting a structured data collection session. © Response—Material that is produced during an AC session in response to the intended target. @ Feedback—After a response has been secured, information about the intended target is displayed to the receiver. © Analyst—An individual who provides a quantitative measure of AC. © Speciality—A given receiver's ability to be particularly successful with a given class of targets (e.g., people as opposed to buildings). Approved For Release TOY BED GAAP 26-00789R0031001 200014
Téqhpraved: bean: Relea sed220040 803 idekAicR DRAGn BRIG A4AO 120001 -4 DRAFT REFERENCES 1. D.L, Delanoy, “Characteristics of Successful Free-Response Targets: Experimental Findings and Observations,” Proceedings of Presented Papers of the Parapsychological Association 31st Annual Convention, pp. 230-246, Montreal, Canada (August 1988). 2. C. Watt, “Characteristics of Successful Free-Response Targets: Theoretical Considerations,” Proceedings of Presented Papers of the Parapsychological Association 31st Annual Convention, pp. 247-263, Montreal, Canada (August 1988). 3. C. Honorton, R. E. Berger, M. P. Varvoglis, M. Quant, P. Derr, E. I. Schechter, and D. C. Ferrari, “PSI Communication in the Ganzfeld,” Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 54, pp. 99-139 (June 1990). 4, C. Honorton and D. C. Ferrari, “Future Telling:’ A Meta-analysis of Forced-choice Precognition Experiments, 1935-1987,” Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 53, pp. 282-308 (December 1989). 5. C. Honorton, “Error Some Place!” Journal of Communication, pp. 103-116, (Winter, 1975). 6. H. E. Puthoff and R. Targ, “A Perceptual Channel for Information Transfer over Kilometer Distances: Historical Perspective and Recent Research,” Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 64, No. 3, pp. 329-354, (March, 1976). 7. E.C. May, J. M. Utts, B.S. Humphrey, W. L. W. Luke, T. J. Frivold, and V. V. Trask, “Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis,” Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 54, pp. 194-228, (September, 1990). Approved For Release AO RAPE bh TH RET 96-00789R003100120004.4
-ARRISYSLERK Relense, 2000/6108 GIALRPRES- 0078 9R0N9400120001-. ependencies P Anomalous DRAFT cal Protocol: Ti APPENDIX This appendix contains the full reprints of the following seven papers: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Characteristics of Successful Free-Response Targets: Experimental Findings and Observations Characteristics of Successful Free-Response Targets: Theoretical Considerations PSI Communication in the Ganzfeld “Future Telling:” A Meta-analysis of Forced-choice Precognition Experiments, 1935-1987 Error Some Place! | A Perceptual Channel for Information Transfer over Kilometer Distances: Historical Perspective and Recent Research Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis Approved For Release OAR Wnsiba 0) <7 \ ca Seal 00789R003100120001;4