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UNCLASSIFIED
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE
-
Nu rn
b
B r
o -f
Pr o jec t s
as
a
F unctio
o-f
type
FIGURE
Data Categories
FIGURE
Eva 1 ua
t
i on
Beal es
FIGURE '4.
,
Summary Data
. Eval uati on Sheet
1£namp 1 e
FIGURE 5 «
Overall
Data Cdrreiatlans
FIGURE
..
Overall
Averages
-for
all
Project Types
FIGURE
7,
Expected Results
-for Approximately
707, Data
Accuracy—Sel acted Personnel
UNCLASS 1 FI ED
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SUN STREAK EVALUATION
PURPOSES
(S/NF/SS-2)
Purpose
o-f
this report
is to provide
evaTuatTon
o-f
the SUN STREAK operational
projects conducted
1986.
an
since
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I
BACKGROUN D
(U)
(S/SF/SS—2 )
SUN STREAK
is an
in-house DIA project
•for
developing
an operational
psychoenergetics
<:i.e.
,
remote viewing)
capability
-for
the
Intelligence Community.
Twelve General
Defense
Intelligence Program
(GDIP)
billets were authorized
-for
DIA
in
1986 Tor this activity.
Personnel
Tram
the? ARMY
INSCOM
CENTER LANE Project who had
been examining similar phenomenon
were transferred to DIA to form the SUN STREAK core group.
DIA
had earlier
(1985)
received operational
control
Tram HQ DA Tor
this 6-person Army unit.
(S/NF/SS—2)
In
1985,
the DIA SUN STREAK Program Manager
prepared
an Action
F'lan
that!
(1)
detailed the steps necessat y to
transition
the CENTER LANE unit
to
DIA?
(2)
i dent i Tied SUN STREAK
staTTing
and support
needs;
and
(3)
set Torth
key programmatic
requirements Tor
the SUN STREAK activity.
The Action Plan
..an.t i/d:i:pa:t!^d...;tha^,
:
-
F«.d fon^a^
....
gperati. anal' c Sp db i 'T
whul'd' ;6-teV Spprd'x.i matet y
-3. year's « v
.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Key aspects
oT
this Action Plan,
along
with
additional
procedural
information
,
were sent to congress! onal
committees
in
1986.
The
IC staTT
was also brieTed
at
this time
on
the Action
Plan. and
dn
- anticipated SUN STREAK operational
.development
and
data, evaluation procedures,
(S/NF/SS-2)
Programmatic
and
operational
requirements
identified
in the Action
Plan were
tos
( 1
)
gain
Special
Access
Program
(SAP)
status
(accomplished
in March
1985);
(2)
gain human
use approval
(granted, in. March
1985)
;
(.3)
set
up
a
Senior,
•
Oversight and
a Task Coordinating Committee" (accomplished —
though
not currently activated)
;
(4)
establish tight project
controls along
with
an
automated database management
and
i et_of
d^=>
system
(accomplished);
and
(5)
to establish
an
R/D. link
for
supporting operational
capability development
(accomplished
via
HQ SGRD Tun ding
and
a
DARF'A
MIF'R)
.
(S/NF/SS-2)
The R/D
link,
via SRI
International,
has
yielded
improved data evaluation procedures,
has
identiTied
potential
personnel
selection techniques,
and
has contributed
to
training/development, methods that
are currently
in project
use.
The activity
at
SRI
has received
and continues to receive
extensive review
by
a 9—member
peer review panel
to insure that
scientific
rigor
is maintained
in
all
their activities.
(S/NF/SS-2)
The basic approach employed
by SUN STREAK
toward developing
a prototype operational
Remote Viewing
(RV)
capability
is to locate personnel
with potential
RV capability
I
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and
to develop these abilities via appropriate training/
development procedures.
Once satisfactory progress
is noted
on
si mpl e—to—verify training tasks,
these individuals are presented
advanced training
and operational
simulation
targets.
Operational
simulation targets are usually US military
or
US
scientific targets where ground truth
is totally
known
or
can
be
readily determined.
Satisfactory performance on these tasks
qualify an
individual
for operational
projects
of
interest
to the
intelligence community.
In many
of
the operational
projects,
however,
ground truth
is usually not
known
(or
is only partially
known).
Consequently,
complete evaluation
of
the viewer's data
cannot
be made until
a later time when ground truth does become
available.
In
the interim,
reasonable estimates
of
the overall
validity
of
the viewer's data can
be made for many
of
the
operational
projects worked,
based
on
what
is generally known
or
susp ec t ed
ab out the
t ar get.
These
i n t er i m evaluation results are
up d a t e d
wh en e v er
n ew
g round
t r ut h
is recei ve cl
.
S/b«F/BBr 2.)
The og err at i opa 1 ^ projects
p.ursue.d. by-,BUN;,
..
ahe approved by the Progr
sirir) 'HsMiag&r and -aTe
i h
part,
based
on.,
the Program Manager's familarity with
Intelligence Community
(IC)
needs and
on solicitation from others within
the
1C who have been
briefed
into the SUN STREAK program.
•
(S/NF/SS—2)
The Evaluations performed for this report cover
all
the operational
and operational
simulation projects
(approximately
200)
that have been
worked
by SUN STREAK personnel
since
1986.
A few
of
the special
operations called upon
consultants from the SRI
talent
pool.-
These results are also
included
in the overall
evaluation.
.2
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EVALUATION
<U)
.
DATA BASE
< U
)
(S/NF/SS--2)
The SUN STREAK project maintains an extensive
record
of
all
project activity.
Details include project timing,
people involved
(i.e.,
viewers,
interviewers,
and possibly
observers)
,
and
a variety
of
other data considered essential
for
good record
keeping
and for evaluating project
results.
This
data,
along with project summaries,
are maintained
i n
an
automated data base for convenient
retrieval.
Copies
of
project
summaries are also sent to the Program Manager
for
his review.
In addition,
all
raw data
(i.e.,
sketches,
viewer's notes)
are
maintained
in
a separate file that
is available for review and
analysis
(Additional
project record details are
in appendix
I).
V'
(S/MF /S S--2)
EVa'l u at i ons con ducted/: f or
th..i-s<. r eport
involved
a complete re—examination
of
the entire SUN STREAK operational
data base.
Many
of
the earlier projects had only been partially
evaluated,
or
not evaluated
at
all,
due to
lack
of
suitable
ground truth
at
the time they were completed.
These projects
were re-evaluated
at
this: time
to adjust
for new
intelligence
data that has since become available.
(S/NF/SS-2)
.For
this evaluation,
the data base was
subdivided
into
6 main project typess
Cl)
Scientific
and
Technological
(S/T )
(2)
Counterterrorist
<CT>
$
<3>
Counternarcotics
(CN )
(4)
Counter intelligence
(Cl). 3
,
(5)
Document
Contents’
(Doc
Con’t)
and
(6)
predictive
(pred)
.
Total
projects
worked
for these categories are shown
in Figure
1.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Of
the nearly 200 projects worked,
approximately one-half
cannot
be evaluated since ground
truth
is
not sufficiently
known
at this time.
For approximately one-
fourth
of
the projects,
ground
truth
is totally
known
(or highly
certain),
and
for
the other one—fourth,
ground truth
is only
partially
known
but considered sufficient
for making
a reasonable
i n ter i m eva 1 uat i on
.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Some
of
these project categories can overlap.
For
example,
prediction data
is also
an aspect
of
most
of
the CN
,
many
of
the CT and
a few
of
the S/T projects.
The prediction
category
in Figure
refers primarily to predictions
of
a
pal i t i cal /mi 1 i t ar y nature.
In future analysis,
predictive data
will
be evaluated
as
a separate aspect
of
the these project
categories.
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2.
EVALUATION TECHNIQUES
(U)
(S/NF/SS-2)
Techniques used
Tor evaluating
the SUN STREAK
operational
and simulated operational
database depend
on
the
nature
o-f
the task
and type
of
project.
S/T projects are the
most difficult
to evaluate.
This difficulty arises
from the
general
complexity existing
at
most S/T target
sites,
-from
possible ambiguous aspects
o-f
known ground truth about the target
site,
-from the nature
o-f
the
in-formation desired,
and
in
a
-few
cases,
possibly
-from the remote viewing
(RV)
targeting method
employed.
It
is easier
to evaluate data on S/T targets
i-f
only
a
single
issue,
such
as presence or absence
(of
a particular
system,
for
example)
is desired,
then
it
is to evaluate how well
a viewers'
detailed but possibly fragmentary description
correlates with aspects
of
a complex
site.
In
this case
a
considerable amount
of subjectivity can
be involved
in
evaluating
the degree
of
data
/ target
corral at i on
.
v
!<
;S7Np/
i.SS---2)
''' f o
: assist'
i'h reduci ng
ovd'ral TV sub jd'fc’ti'vi ty
of'
'
evaluating complex
S/T targets,
the viewers'
data
is examined
and
compared
to ground
truth
with several
data categories
in
mind.
These categories are shown
in Figure
2,
and
include geographic
descriptions,
large and
small
scale objects,
large and
small
scale functions,
personality data,
and predictive data.
Not
all
these categories may
be relevant
to
a specific project,
and .'in.,
some cases may even
be part
of
the RV targeting procedure used
<e»g«,
when
a photo
of
target building
is used
as
an RV targeting
reference for accessing
its unknown contents)
.
(S/NF/SS-2).
, After
identifying .the appropriate
dat^.
category,
the next
step
is
to examine the viewers'
raw
(or
summarized)
data
for comparison
to known
or estimated ground
truth
and
to make
a best
judgement,
on
what approximate degree
of
data correlation actually exists.
Figure 3 defines the scale
ratings used along
with
their
approx i mate degree
of
data
,
correlation;
(Appendix
II
contains detailed
instructions for
analyst consideration
when reviewing the data).
(S/NF/SS-2)
Final
evaluations and summaries are prepared
by
the Program Manager and/or
his project representative
(who
is
not
part
of
SUN STREAK staff)
in conjunction
with
the responsible
system or
Area Analyst
or
Intelligence Community point-of-
contact.
Latest
intelligence data and reports
on
that
target
site are also reviewed during this process.
In some cases,
area
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i
•
DATA CATEGORIES
Ur
m.
:
; a:i
GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTIONS -- e.g., TERRAIN FEATURES;
WATER, MOUNTAINS
>r
OBJECTS (LARGE SCALE) -- e.g., AIRFIELDS, FACILITY
LAYOUT, DOCKS, SILOS
OBJECTS {SMALL SCALE)
e.g., LASERS, TANKS, ANTENNASOjlttf
FUNCTIONS (LARGE SCALE) -- e.g., R/D, WEAPON TESTING,
PRODUCTION
FUNCTIONS (SMALL SCALE) -- e.g., LASER TESTING, CBW
STORAGE, MISSILE FIRING
PERSONALITY DATA - e.g., STATE-OF-HEALTH, PHYSICAL
FEATURES, BACKGROUND
PREDICTIVE
-- e.g., PLANS, INTENTIONS, FUTURE LOCATIONS,
FUTURE ACTIONS /ACTIVITY
.
SP5353.13
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r/o
2.
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<1
(W-
-
EVALUATION SCALES
NUMERICAL
RATING
APPROX. DEGREE OF
DATA CORRELATION
PERCENT
0-10
10-30
30-50
50-70
70-90
90-100
DESCRIPTION
LITTLE OR NO CORRELATION
MIXTURE OF RELEVANT
AND INCORRECT DATA
WITH MAJORITY INCORRECT
MIXTURE OF RELEVANT
AND INCORRECT DATA
WITH MAJORITY CORRECT
AND UNAMBIGUOUS
VERY HIGH TARGET
CORRELATION WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO
AMBIGUOUS DATA
SP5353.11
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r/<L 3
r
SG1A
SG1A
SG1A
SG1C
SG1B
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analysts and
the
IC
poi nts-o-f -contact provide written appraisals
to assist
in
the
-final
evaluation
process.
These evaluations are
recorded
on summary
-forms and
are maintained
in the
f-i- ogr am
Man ager
' s
f i 1 es
.
(S/NF/SS—2)
An example
o-f
an
this case the target
Figure
4.
In
S/T targ et evaluation
site was
SG1A
The project
was complete
i n June
and
involved
four viewers
(2 proven
and
2 novice).
In
this
example,
the bracket
(
)
indicates
a best estimate
of
data
validity was made for
tha t data cat egory since ground truth
is
not
yet totally known for^^^^^^^0.
A
"dash"
means that data
category was not present
in the viewers'
data.
One
of
the
v i ewer s
( # 1 0 1
)
at t emp
t
ed
to describe the site
6 months
in
the
I n
t l~i i s
c ase
,
^ ,ne
Some
of
the
• data
• cafeegor i e,g.'( i,«..e-. \f. .g©d'.gr.aph:ig-..#/e'at ur.es.,-
•.laf^g.e.. .scal.e.^ gb jsc;,bs.)..,. ......
are not
important
from an
intelligence data viewpoint since they
are known from conventional
col lection
assets.
However
,
the
viewers'
data
in these categories are included
in
the evaluation
for this project since they tend to provide confidence that
other
(as yet unknown)
details
in
the data
may. be correct.
(S/NF/SS--2)
A more sophisticated analysis methodology has
been recently developed
by SRI
for
use
in evaluating
complex
projects.
This method's main advantage
is that
it allows
quantified estimates to be made for
each
and every data element
generated by the viewer
with respect
to both autual
tar get
•existence and
importance.
This technique
is currently being
examined
for use
in
the SUN STREAK program and
has been
applied
to
a few projects.
However,
it
is
a
labor
intensive technique
that
will, probably be used only for
select
high
interest projects
in
the future.
(S/NF/SS—2)
Most
of
the other SUN STREAK project
type*, do
not require
a complex
analysis methodology.
F-or example,
due tu
the nature
of
what type
of
data
is desired
(and availability
of
collection assets that
can be cued),
most
of
the CT ,
ON,
or
predictive projects where ground truth
is known can
be evaluated
in
a
"black
or
white"
manner.
The viewers'
data,
even
if
not
acted
upon,
either correlates with
the subsequent
location
of
the
fugitive
or
ship,
or
it does
not.
The event
predicted
did,
or
did not,
happen.
Thus,
overall
results for
many
of
these
projects are simply
a matter
of
counting hits and misses.
Hit
ratios or percentages
of hits/misses
for m the basis
of
over all
data correlations made
in this report
for
these types
of
projects
.
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v
^
v< SUMMARY DATA EVALUATION SHE
0-3 SCALE
PROJECT
COMPLETED
SESSIONS
SOURCES
DATA CATEGORIES
j
COMMENTS
a.
b.
C-
d.
e.
f.
i
i
g<
GEO.
OBJ.
L.S.
OBJ.
S.S.
FN.
L.S.
FN.
S.S.
PERS.
PR.
'
.
8701
1 1 JUNE 87
003
1+
-
-
I
018
-
-
-
jj
021
(1)
-
-
-
-
{
) = C.8.E.
101
2+
2+
1+
-
V
6 MONTH Pi
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Ft 6- y