a a Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200190001-7 B. PMT/RV Correlation Results As described, the basic data unit was a 17-minute session during which 1024 channel records of output were collected simultaneously in three records. Each channel contains the number of pulses recorded during a one-second counting period. For a given session, one of the three records contains the All-Pass PMT data and one the High-Pass PMT data. For the RV sessions, the third data record contains the markers that indicate the beginning and the end of RV effort periods. In order that we could characterize the overall behavior of the system, we collected 50 sessions, with no one present, both before and after the entire series of RV effort sessions. These were designated as the global control sessions. To characterize the behavior of the system at time of the RV, one local control trial was conducted both before and after each set of two consecutive RV sessions. 1, Global Control Data An error in the data storage program caused the data from the 50 global control trials following the entire series of RV sessions to be lost, leaving only the pre~experiment global controls. Given the stability of the temperature controlled PMT housing, this set of approximately 50,000 counting periods appears sufficient to characterize the long-term behavior and general pulse distribution of the system. In addition, bracketing the RV sessions with two local control trials serves to detect any short term fluctuations in the system behavior. As described, the local trials served as the statistical baseline for calculating possible effects on the PMT during the RV session, regardless of the FM correlation. The number of counts/channel for the All~Pass mode ranges from 0 to 84, with a mean of 4.615 and a standard deviation of 3.471; the values for the High-Pass mode range from 0 to 15, with a mean of 0.700 and a standard deviation of 0.921. The distribution of the global control data exhibits a long tail which is undoubtedly due not only to thermionic emission but also to the relatively rare dark count processes mentioned in the PMT literature.6 Suppression of these sources of dark noise is possible, but sufficiently difficult and expensive to be unwarranted at this stage of investigation. 2. Local Control Data ‘All of the RV trials were conducted in pairs, one about 30 minutes after the other. Both before and after each set of two RV trials, a local control trial was collected to characterize the system’s short term behavior. We observed Statistically large differences between 13 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200190001-7
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200190001-7 the means of the global and local control runs, but normal aging of the PMT or very slow temperature drifts across hours of Operating time could easily account for this difference, The principal effects we wish to examine are (1) correlations between RV quality (FM) and pulse rate, and (2) changes in pulse rate between control and RV sessions. From the above analysis, it is obvious that the a priori decision to use the local control data as the baseline to analyze the RV data was correct. 3. RV Session Data Data were collected for each RV trial that marked the beginning and end of effort periods during the session so that the periods of viewing could be isolated in the analysis. Thus, for each RV session, there are four distinct sets of data: either the entire RV session or just the effort period, and for each, either the All-Pass or the High-Pass mode. As in the FY 1984 experiment, we selected the “excess counts” measure as the quantity most appropriate for our statistical analysis. The excess counts is the number of channels in a given session data record with a count rate greater than a critical value. That value is determined from the distribution of counts per channel of the preceding and the following local control trials. The critical count rate is chosen so that the area from that value to infinity represents 5% of the area under the local control distribution curve. Since the hypothesized effect results in increased photon production, the excess counts measure will identify significant fluctuations in the high count rate events (p < 0.05). In the All—Pass mode, the critical value ranges from 11 to 14: for the High-Pass mode, the cutoff value was 3 for all RV trials. Once the critical value had been determined for each RV session, the number of excess counts was tabulated for each viewer’s group of six sessions. We then employed a paired t-test to compare the RV excess counts value to the appropriate local control trials. Only one set of data out of 20 showed a significant result; thus, the conclusion is that no significant effect is present in the excess counts measure overall. We also examined the possibility that some RV interaction with the PMT may have produced an anomalous high pulse rate event as claimed by the Chinese. We compared the maximum count rates observed in any RV session (All-Pass, 48 counts/second; High-Pass, 9 counts/second), with the maximum count rates in the local control trials (All-Pass, 58 counts/second; High-Pass, 14 counts/second). At is obvious from these data that no unusual interaction occurred during the RV session. 14 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200190001-7
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200190001-7 4, RV/PMT Correlation Data Our principal hypothesis was: There is a correlation between increased PMT count rate and the quality (FM) of the associated RV: Four sets of linear correlations were done for each of the four viewers (i.e., All-Pass and High-Pass for effort periods and total session). Because the claim was that the RV would result in an increased count rate, we were able to specify the direction of the interaction and therefore are justified in conducting a one-tailed analysis. No evidence of correlation was apparent for any measure. We conclude, therefore, that there is no significant interaction between the quality of RV and PMT output. Since the FM is bounded [0, 1] and not normally distributed, we performed a logistic regression analysis as well. Again, no statistically significant correlations were observed. For completeness, we reanalyzed the FY 1984 data using a logistic regression. As reported earlier,? we see a significant correlation between RV quality and PMT “noise” for the High-Pass data. 15 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200190001-7
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200190001-7 IV DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS We conducted a replication of experimental work published in FY 1984 in which we examined the possibility that light is emitted in the vicinity of correctly identified RV target material. In FY 1984, the statistical measure derived from the photon counting apparatus showed a significant correlation with the RV results (p S 0.035, or p < 0.012 using logistic regression). That is, when the RV was good, there was an increase in the signal detected by the photon counting system. When the viewing was less accurate, a smaller signal was detected by the counting system. Out of 22 viewings, we recorded two that contained a photon counting anomaly having a signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio of about 20-40:1, far below the 100-1000:1 anomalies reported in the Chinese literature that led to our original study, In our FY 1984 experiment we conclided that: “Since we observed both statistical correlations and two suggestive anomalies, we have concluded that there is sufficient evidence to justify another set of experiments. To carry out a more definitive investigation, those experiments should be conducted with the following improvements: @ Add more-experienced viewers to the initial group. © Cool and temperature stabilize the PM tube to reduce background noise count rates, ® Introduce yet more stringent electrical isolation from the environment to further reduce the possibility of artifacts from electrical transients.” In our present experiment we have satisfied all of the foregoing recommendations and have improved all aspects of the previous work--including the quality of RV, background noise level, and shielding against artifact. A. PMT Anomalies The most extraordinary original claim of the Chinese researchers was that very high count rate signals (103 to 108 counts/second) were observed to be correlated with correct “exceptional vision”--a remote viewing-like ability exhibited by selected Chinese participants). In both of our replications of that work, we have obtained good statistical evidence of RV. However, from the analysis of distribution of pulse rates in the current experiment, it is clear that we have not observed any photon counting anomalies that can be considered extraordinary when 16 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200190001-7
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200190001-7 compared with long-term control trials. It is true that the RV sessions contained occasional pulse rates which, when compared to typical noise background, had an S/N ratio of about 10:1 (~ 50 counts/second, maximum). Because the variance in the count rates is very small, these pulses are statistically improbable. However, the discussion of PMT dark count processes demonstrates that such occasional relatively low-rate events are not unknown or unanticipated. We have demonstrated that such events also occurred in control periods when no RV sessions were being conducted. It is our opinion that the higher rate events observed in our earlier experiments and in the Chinese work were the result of transients in the experimental apparatus, which have now been suppressed through the use of power conditioning, hardening against electromagnetic interference, and temperature stabilization. In 1985, SRI had an opportunity to interview Xu Hong Zhang, one of the principal experimenters in the original Chinese work. When questioned closely about the actual experimental protocol and instrumentation he described his technique of drilling a hole in the photomultiplier tube housing to “let the psi in.” Even though the housing was enclosed in a multilayer opaque cloth bag, the hole obviously completely violated the physical and electromagnetic integrity of the housing. There can be little remaining doubt that the Chinese observations were artifactual in nature. B. RV/PMT Output Correlations Despite the lack of any anomalous large-scale PMT counting events attributable to RV, the FY 1984 study produced a statistically significant correlation between FM and PMT output. That correlation at least conceptually paralled the Chinese claim, and appeared less likely to be artifactual in origin since the correlation was obtained across data generated by 4 viewers and 22 RV sessions. In repeating the FY 1984 experiment, our principal assumption was as follows: If the RV process did in some way interact with the PMT system, then reducing the noise of the PMT system should dramatically enhance the signal and, therefore, the correlation. Several techniques were used to reduce the background count rate by a factor of 60 in the All-Pass mode and at least an order of magnitude in the High—-Pass mode. Despite this noise reduction, and substantially better remote viewing, the RV/PMT correlation was not enhanced. As the analysis demonstrates, the correlation disappeared entirely. ‘The most obvious explanation of the difference in outcome is that the FY 1984 correlation results were simply fortuitous. 17 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200190001-7