a d For Release 2000/08/08 : a aadiatiin auiaaaa ew Final Report--Objective D, Task 1, and December 1987 Objective G, Task 1 Covering the Period 1 October 1985 to 30 September 1987 COMPUTER-ASSISTED SEARCH (U) a SRI Project 1291 | Intemattiona This document consists of 16 pages. _- D=BAL 3 Ravenswood Avenue ° o Par 6-00 94 (ai) 326-6200 ° Cable: SRI INTL ne * TWX: 910-373- soa8 —" ‘ roved For, Release 2000/08/08 . eink er create 200170001 9 ~~ i
Approved For Release ee : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200170001-9 ABSTRACT (VU) (U) One reported psychoenergetic skill, known to the general public as “dowsing,” is the ability to locate lost or hidden items of interest. In an effort to bring this putative ability that we call “search” into the laboratory, a computer-assisted search (CAS) experiment was conducted in FY 1984 and again in FY 1986. Participants scanned a computer graphics display and attempted to locate a hidden computer-generated target. In each experiment, two conditions were randomly interchanged in a balanced protocol: (1) the target was fixed in space (space condition), and (2) the location of the target was randomly shifted several times each second (time condition). Both the subjects and the experimenter were blind to the condition on each trial. ; In FY 1984, five of seven participants demonstrated an above chance ability to find targets in one of the two conditions: three in the time condition and two in the space condition. Of the 36 participants in the FY 1986 experiment, two showed above chance results in the space condition and six in the time condition. No participant in either ‘experiment was able to produce results in both conditions independently. ; : A follow-up experiment was done in FY 1986 to see if subjects would produce better results if they were only presented with the single condition for which they had done well in the original experiment. None of the eight subjects who completed this "single condition" experiment scored Significantly. 4. In FY 1987, an experiment was conducted which successfully replicated the original FY 1986 finding. Of eight participants (six experienced and two novices), the two who scored best in the space condition had previously been successful in that condition, and the one who scored best in the time condition had previously been successful in that condition. Aus suggests that participants are likely to consistently do well in one condition or the other, but not both. Only one of the eight participants scored significantly in the space condition, and none ii Approved For Release 20/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200170001-9
- _t Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200170001-9 — | { ) in the time condition, but the level of significance for the one subject rendered the entire experiment significant. 4‘ ____' This is the third laboratory replication of this experiment. In each experiment, there were significant results which could have been useful, ; i. The best subject in the FY 1987 experiment showed a reduction in the area that would need to be searched in 72% of the trials in the space condition, with an average reduction in area of 33%. Previous experiments showed even greater reductions. In real-world applications, this could represent a substantial savings in resources. However, the skill has not been shown to be completely robust, and more experimentation should be done before attempting these applications. (U) A second “search” experiment was conducted in FY 1987 to see if self-proclaimed dowsers could “find” a lost ship by searching a grid which had previously been keyed to a map. The object of the search was a sunken Spanish galleon called the Atocha, which was actually found in 1985. The experiment was carried out with two sets of 25 trials for each of five participants, but failed to produce a single significant result. Lil Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200170001-9
Approved For Release ONCUA SSrRR Bro 70001-9 ap reren a are EEe reE Rtiet R (U) TABLE OF CONTENTS ! ABSTRACT oc. c ccc ce cece eee e eet e sete e sees eee vvennieetennnnretennes i | LIST OF TABLES 2.0... ccc cece cece e teen e cent eee ne eeenesepnsentuneeunes Vv LIST OF FIGURES 10... cece cece ccc cece eee eee ent e nent nese ee eneneenns v I INTRODUCTION 0.6.0. e eee eee cesses eee eeeeeeeenens 1 A OVETVIEW icc eee cence nent eee bene ebb enensetnbae. 1 B Background 1... ccc ccc cece eet e eee eect ee eeeeneeetennuas 2 C. Experiments for FY 1987 20... cece ccc c eee e rent e tee ntnenens 3 i, II METHOD OF APPROACH ..... ccc ccccceceeceeeueeeeeeuteeeuvenvag 5 i A. The Computer-Assisted Search Experiment ..............2.4. eee 5 B. The Atocha Experiment ........ 0.00 c ccc cece ccc ecceucevecenans 6 ; C.  Amalysis . 0... cece ccc cece ee eee een eeteetneentnuans .. 8 I RESULTS 2... e nee e tenet tees eneebntenneennes 11 i A. The Computer—Assisted Search Experiment ......... 0.00. cece ev ees 11 ! B. The Atocha Experiment ........ 0... ce cece cee ee cute eee neneaes 13 f i : fl IV DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS ........ 0 ccccceccceeeeuceeeecenes 14 REFERENCES 0.00.00... cc ccccueeeveeeeeeeeeseeeuevereebietebieeertr repre, 16 i iv Approved For Release LIN CAS SIFTED. 10780R002200170001 -9
(U) LIST OF TABLES 1. Results for Computer-Assisted Search Experiment ........... 0.0 ccc ceecceveees 2. Results for the Atocha Experiment ....... 00. c ees e wees Lecce eueeueuneenees 13 P (U) FIGURE 4 1. Search Matrix Computer Display with Feedback «0... .. 0. cece eee eens 6 4 Vv Approved For Release AS SEP 00789R002200170001-9
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200170001-9 (U) To see whether or not this purported “search” ability could be brought under laboratory control, a computer~assisted search (CAS) routine was developed. This routine consists of the following elements: (1) A finite matrix of possible target locations (e.g., a 20 x 20 graphics matrix grid) from which one cell is randomly selected by the computer as the target. (2) An individual whose task is to “scan” the graphics display area with a computer mouse, and indicate, by pressing the button on the mouse, his/her choice as to the target location. (3) A feedback mechanism that displays the response and actual target location. (4) An a priori defined analysis procedure to compare the targets with the responses. B. (U) Background (U) Using this general procedure, an experiment was conducted during FY 1984 in which two conditions were tested simultaneously:'* . ® The target remains fixed in space for the duration of the trial (space condition). © The target is rapidly moving to various locations, so that the subject must push - the button at exactly the right time (time condition), bSeven subjects, who were blind to the space/time condition, = were each asked to contribute 50 trials (25 space, 25 time). Five of them produced independently significant results: three in time only and two in - space only. No participant was successful at both Space and time conditions. (U) A larger pool of subjects was used to try to replicate this finding in FY 1986. Participants were chosen on the basis of interest and availability, and included both experienced ~ and novice subjects. As in the FY 1984 experiment, each subject contributed 25 trials under each of the two conditions, space and time, and were blind to the condition in force for each trial. Most subjects were unaware that there were two conditions. ma ‘ "_, Thirty-six Subjects participated in the Fy 1986 experiment. _ Results were analyzed by separating the trials collected under the two conditions, as before. Six subjects attained Significant results (p < 0.05) in the time condition, and two in the space condition. The smallest Pe] eee ‘ (U) References are listed at the end of this report. _ 2 . - 001-9 = Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200170
| Approved For Release 0/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200170001-9 SP attained p-value was 0.0001. The probability of obtaining such an extreme result, with 72 separate tests (36 in each condition), is 0.007. {The appropriate formula for this is (1 - (1 -— 0.0001)72], where in general the smallest p-value in an experiment with n separate tests is used instead of 0.0001, and n is used in place of 72.)2 ‘ —™ In both years of testing, no participant scored Significant hits in both the time and space conditions. (There were two subjects in FY 1986 who scored significantly in the direction of missing the target under both conditions.) This observation led to the question of whether or not talented subjects bifurcated into two groups: those who could search over a spatial area, and those who could push the button at just the right time. A follow-up experiment was proposed in FY 1986 to test this. ‘ ____. Eleven subjects who had done well in the original FY 1986 experiment were asked to participate ina "single condition" experiment in which they would search under only the condition for which they had scored well. Thus, those who scored better in time were told of this fact, and were told that the target was constantly moving. Similarly, those who had done well with a fixed target were tested only under this condition, and ' were explicitly told that the target was stationary. Eight subjects completed this experiment. Results from this single condition experiment proved to be nonsignificant for all subjects. Cc. (U) Experiments for FY 1987 (U) Since the FY 1984 and the original FY 1986 experiments had shown evidence of “search” ability, and since the only change in the follow-up FY 1986 experiment had been to l remove the random assignment of the space and time condition, it was decided that an experiment should be conducted in FY 1987 in which the random space and time conditions were again used. This will be further discussed in this report, under the title of “Computer-Assisted Search Experiment.” (U) As another test of “search” ability, an experiment was conducted during FY 1987 with a group of five self-proclaimed dowsers. The purpose of this experiment was to see if any of these individuals could come closer than expected by chance to locating a shipwreck, by Approved For Release poovos : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200170001-9
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200170001-9 UNCLASSIFIED (U) identifying a spot on a map. This experiment will be further discussed in this report as “The Atocha Experiment.” 4 Approved For Release MING AS SHES 00789R002200170001-9
Approved For Release CINICLASSIE lA IFIED ED 00789R002200170001-9 d ‘ ' Ramune II METHOD OF APPROACH (U) A. (U) The Computer-—Assisted Search Experiment SSR RE TP RHETT (U) The FY 1987 Computer~Assisted Search Experiment was designed as a further test of SOTA the hypothesis that some individuals have an ability to search a bounded area on a computer screen and identify the location of a hidden “target.” Hight subjects participated in the experiment, six of whom had participated in the unsuccessful FY 1986 “single condition” experiment, and two who were novices to this task. Each subject contributed 25 trials in the space condition and 25 trials in the time condition. (U) To test a participant on the space condition, the target location was fixed throughout the trial. To test the time condition, the target location was changed several times each second. sf EROSENET a a A a TRAE SE FETE PY The computer selected one of the conditions for each trial by a balanced random protocol, so that each set of ten trials contained five of each type. The participant and experimenter were blind as to which condition was being presented on any given trial. (U) A Sun Microsystems work station computer was used to conduct all aspects of this experiment. This computer system is noted for its high-resolution graphics display and graphics input device. The particular random number generator algorithm used in this experiment has been studied in detail and is found to be adequate for multidimensional applications. (U) The approach used was a modification of a procedure originally developed by Dr. Dean I. Radin at Bell Laboratories for evaluating geometric-distance scores in a perceptual task.4 The target area of interest is constructed as a square. A grid system is then laid down over the square in the form of annxn matrix, to yield n? separate grid cells (e.g., 400 for a 20 x 20 grid). The computer randomly selects one of the grid cells as the target for a particular trial in the space condition, and rapidly changes the potential target in the time condition. The subject’s task is to locate the target, by moving a mouse-driven cursor around the target area and pushing a button when the moment seems right. In the time condition, the potential target in force when the computer registers the subject’s button press becomes the actual target. Since the potential target is moving fast enough so that it is likely to be in any given cell every few seconds, the subject would not have to move the cursor at all in order to capture the target. In both conditions, the response is defined as the grid cell where the cursor is located when the button is pressed. Dee ea te ete ae! Approved For Release retro Ah OLE LED, s.00789R002200170001 -9
| es cn cs cs Oe i es es ee, i a er con Se Ss Se | | Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : cia-ROPH6-00789R002200170001-9 (U) In our experiment, a bounded area representing the perimeter of a 20 x 20 cell matrix was shown to the participant, with the additional option of having the 400 individual squares of the grid displayed. Figure 1 shows the display with the grid option. The participant was told that the target could be anywhere within the square, and that he/she should move the cursor around, and push the button on the mouse when the moment “seemed right.” The computer was programmed to give immediate feedback to the participant following each trial by automatically displaying the target cell as a filled square and the participant’s choice as a shaded square, with a line connecting the two (see Figure 1). After several seconds of the feedback display, the computer recycled to the next trial. Coordinates of the target and response were stored for future analysis. UNCLASSIFIED FIGURE 1 (U) SEARCH MATRIX COMPUTER DISPLAY WITH FEEDBACK B. (U) The Atocha Experiment « __ To take the search task out of the laboratory, five self-proclaimed dowsers were asked to participate in an experiment to see if any of them could find an object by searching a map. (One of them, Viewer 198, has been part of the SRI Psychoenergetics Project since 1984. At times he/she has performed excellently in ; a real-world laboratory search tasks. However, his/her overall performance 6 _ Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200170001-9