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has been mixed.)
The object used for
the experiment was
the wreck of
a
Spanish galleon,
Nuestra Senora de Atocha, which sank during a hurricane
in
1622.
The wreckage was found off
the coast of Key West,
Florida,
on 20
July,
1985.
It was selected as
the
target
for
this experiment because,
although
its
location was already known,
the considerable wealth
it
contained and
its fascinating historical background made
it
something that
would have been worth searching for.
The purpose of
this
task was
to
simulate
a situation
in which
the searchers would be excited about
finding
the
target because of
its
value.
Of course
the experiment was designed
in
such
a way that knowing
the actual
location of
the wreckage would not help
the searchers succeed
in
the experiment.
1.
(U)
Preliminary Activities
(U) To create a high level of interest in the experiment, SRI personnel visited Florida
and conducted two preliminary
activities.
First, they accompanied Viewer
198
to the Atocha
museum and discussed the experiment and the Atocha
history
in
detail with him/her.
Later,
before beginning the experimental
trials, Viewer 198
showed a National Geographic videotape
of the search
for the Atocha to the other four participants.
(U) The second preliminary
activity was
to conduct a few real-world search
trials
with Viewer 198,
for a less important, but known, Spanish galleon wreck, the San Pedro.
For
these trials the location of the San Pedro wreck was marked on a map.
Three white paper disks,
scaled to correspond to 5,000 yards in diameter (6.34 square miles), were randomly keyed to the
map and marked with a secret orientation code so
that the experimenter could
later rematch
them to the map. The actual map location of the San Pedro was constrained to be somewhere on
each of the three disks.
(U) To add to the excitement of the task, the data were collected while Viewer 198
and the SRI personnel were in a vessel anchored directly above the wreck.
Viewer 198 was given
the three disks and asked to mark on each of them the spot where he/she felt the wreck and thus
his/her current location were.
We had hoped that “searching”
for yourself as a beacon would
contribute to the success of the
trial.
(U)
Each disk was rematched to the map and the center of gravity (CG) for the three
responses was calculated.
Viewer 198’s CG corresponded to a spot 500 yards from the wreck.
If
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(U)
a “real search” had been initiated at Viewer 198’s spot, a 96% reduction in search area would
have been realized over starting at a random location.
(U) Encouraged by
this demonstration
trial, we proceeded with the search
for the
Atocha.
2.
(U)
Experimental Details
(U) The five participants in the Atocha experiment conducted their searches in group
meetings at one participant’s home.
During each weekly meeting, each subject attempted
five
guesses.
These were recorded by filling in a square on a piece of paper containing a 20 x 20 grid
similar to that shown in Figure
1.
These responses were then mailed to SRI International for
evaluation.
Previous to the time of the meeting, an experimenter at SRI had generated a target
square
for
each
participant,
for
each
of
the
trials.
This
was
done
using
a
computer
randomization scheme to select one of the 400 squares in the grid.
To simulate real conditions
as much as possible, the grid was placed on a map of the Key West area with the target square
centered on the spot where the Atocha had been found.
Thus, each week there were
five such
grids, ordered numerically by
trial number,
for each participant.
If the participant filled in the
correct square on a given response grid, then when the grid used for that trial was placed on the
map, the response would be
directly over the spot where the Atocha was found.
(U) The
experiment
was
initially
scheduled
to
run
for
five
weeks,
with
each
participant contributing a total of 25
trials.
However,
at the end of that period the participants
submitted and were granted a request to repeat the experiment, so the entire experiment consists
of two sets of 25
trials for each subject.
C.
(U)
Analysis
(U)
In both the CAS and
the Atocha experiments,
the
basic unit
of data
for analysis
consisted
of
sets
of 25
target/response
pairs.
Within each
pair,
the
data recorded were
the
coordinates of the target and the response from their locations on the 20 x 20 grid.
In the CAS
experiment, each of the eight subjects contributed one such set in the time condition and one in
the space condition.
For the Atocha experiment, each of the five subjects contributed two sets,
one during each of the two five-week periods in the experiment.
the question of
interest Is Whether or not
the
information provided by
the participant
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(S-NF
)
Table
(concluded)
Major Keyword
Subtopic Keyword
Mi scellaneous--Encompasses
all
publications
that were determined
to possess
little or no
immediate
t
1 interest
(e .g -
,
"hauntings," detection
of
the
human aura,
and
so
forth)
No subtopics
as
yet
implemented
k
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would help reduce
the time needed
to find the
target.
This
is equivalent
to reducing the area over which
it
is necessary
to search before
the
target
is
located.
(U) Assume that in the absence of any information, a search would proceed by randomly
selecting a square on the grid and searching that square.
If the target
is not found, then the
squares
closest
to
the
original
one
are
searched,
in
random
order.
This
continues,
by
progressively moving away from the original square, until the target is found.
At each stage, the
set of squares equidistant from the original one, which have not yet been searched, are selected
in random order and searched.
(U) To analyze the success of these experiments, the average time required to find the
target using this procedure with the subject’s guess as the starting point should be compared to
the average time required using a random starting point.
t
(U) The number of squares that must be searched could range anywhere from one
(if the
target
is
in the
original starting square),
to the
total number of squares, which
is 400
for our
experiments.
In the absence of any information, and assuming that the target
is equally likely to
be anywhere in the grid, the probability that exactly s squares must be searched
is 1/400, for any
integer value of s from one to 400.
In other words,
s follows what
is called a “discrete uniform
distribution.”
It is as likely that all 400 squares will have to be searched as
it is that the target will
be found in the
first square.
This result
is independent of the starting square.
(U) The item of interest from each
trial
is the number of squares that would have to be
searched to find the
target.
To compute
this, we
first find the straight line distance from the
response to the target using the formula:
d
= V (Yj-Yj^+fXj-Xj) 2
,
where (X,
, Y,
) and (X2
, Y2
) are the coordinates of the target and the response, respectively.
(U)
Next, we count the number of squares that are closer to the response than
is the
actual
target,
since
all of those would have to be searched before the target would be found.
Finally, we add
to the count half of the number of squares that are exactly d units from the
response, since on the average half of the squares at that distance would have to be searched
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UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
before finding the one with the target.
In symbols,
if we define p as the proportion of squares
that must be searched to find the target, then:
r < d
n(D
r ) + 0.5 n(Dd
)
P
= —
,
400
where n(Dr) represents the number of squares exactly r units from the response.
One advantage
of working with these proportions
is that we can estimate a meaningful quantity, the expected
reduction in area searched, instead of simply testing for significance.
(U) To determine whether or not a given set of 25
trials produced a result significantly
different from chance, we compare the average proportion of the grid searched to what would be
expected by chance. We can compute a z-score by subtracting the expected average, which
is
0.5 x (201 - 400) = 0.50125, from the average p, then dividing by the standard deviation, which
is \/l /12n
.
Thus,
V
z = \/l2n (0.50125 - p
)
.
In this case, n = 25.0
Using the Central Limit Theorem, a set of 25
trials will be declared to be
significant
if z < -1.645.
(U) The p-value for an entire experiment will be based on the minimum p-value across
all subjects.
If there are N subjects, the appropriate formula for this will be overall p-value =
[1
-
(1 - min p-value)N
]. 2
'i
(U)
This formula
is based on the minimum of N independent samples from a standard
uniform distribution. Under the null hypothesis, p-values should follow such a distribution.
This
procedure was introduced by Tippett in
1931, and was the
first test of significance based on
combined results.2
It
is most powerful when one or more subjects can produce a large effect,
even
if others cannot.
This seems to be a good model for what appears to be happening in psi
research, so this procedure would be appropriate.
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significantly reduce
the average search time from what
it would be
if
randomly located starting points were used.
(U) The Atocha experiment, which was designed
to
see
if self-proclaimed
“dowsers”
would be able to locate a lost object using a grid overlaid on a map, did not produce a significant
finding, although a preliminary experiment showed very promising results.
It
is difficult to base
conclusions on one experiment with a small sample
size.
However,
it appears that whatever
produced the functioning with selected subjects in the computer-assisted search in the laboratory
did not carry over to the conditions of the Atocha experiment.
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REFERENCES (U)
Puthoff, H.
E., and May, E. C., “Target Search Techniques (U),” Final
Project 6600, SRI International, Menlo Park, California (December 1984) SECRET.
Hedges, L. V., and Olkin,
I., Statistical Methods for Meta-Analysis,
p. 34, Academic
Press,
Inc., Orlando, Florida (1985) UNCLASSIFIED
Lewis
T. G., and Payne, W. H., “Generalized Feedback Shift Register Pseudorandom
Number Algorithm,” Journal of the Association for Computer Machinery, Vol. 20, No.
3, pp. 456-468
(July 1973) UNCLASSIFIED.
4.
Radin, D.
I., “Evaluating Geometric Distance Scores in a Perceptual Task,” in Research
in Parapsychology, 1981, pp. 163-164, Scarecrow Press,
Inc., Metuchen, New Jersey
(1982) UNCLASSIFIED.
*
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