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b.
Financial
Of the $37. 5K
initially budgeted, S9.8K was spent.
A posteriori
assessment was not completed as of 4 October 1986.
Therefore,
this task was underspent.
3.
Objective A, Task 3—Host RV Analysis Conference
a.
Technical
On 26 September 1986, the Princeton Engineering Anomalies
Research (PEAR) laboratory at Princeton University hosted an RV analysis conference.
Two
SRI
staff attended the conference. We exchanged information about the difficult RV analysis
question in general.
Specifically, we were given a descriptor
list and scoring algorithm for
their current system, FIDO.
FIDO
will allow an analyst to give partial credit to a target or
response element.
After examining the FIDO material, we concluded that our fuzzy set
technology accomplished that same objective, and was broader in scope.
Thus, we have
rejected the PEAR RV analysis technology at this time.
b.
Financial
Of the $11. OK
initially budgeted, $10.8K was spent.
4.
Objective A, Task 4—Improve RV Evaluation 1 *
'
a.
Technical
The FY 1986 evaluation effort has resulted in
(1) refinement and
extension of current techniques, and
(2)
identification of new technologies that
will be
candidates for preliminary research.
The mathematical formalism for the current evaluation procedure—the
figure of merit analysis—is well understood and stable.
In essence,
it
is a simplified
automated procedure for the analysis of free-response material.
As in earlier similar
procedures, the target and response materials are coded as yes/no answers to a set of
questions
(descriptors).
By definition,
this coding defines the complete target and response
information.
The accuracy of the response
is defined as the percent of the target material
that
is correctly described
(i.e., the number of correct response
bits divided by the total
In-depth discussions of specific tasks can be obtained in their respective 4th Quarter FY 1986 final and/or
interim technical reports, which are numerically annotated in each subsection heading, and are
listed at the
end of this document.
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number of target bits =
1).
The
reliability of the response
is defined as the percent of the
response that
is correct
(i.e., the number of correct response
bits divided by the total number
of response bits =
1).
The
figure of merit
is the product of the accuracy and
reliability.
The advantages and weaknesses of the
figure of merit system have
been identified and have been discussed (along with examples)
in the FY 1986
final report for
this task.
One of the system’s primary advantages
is
its
ability to provide a mechanism for
systematic examination of inter-analyst reliability factors,
in addition to providing a reasonable
assessment of remote viewing data.
Mean chance expectations (MCE) have been calculated
for the
figure of merit, and recommendations have been made to extend current techniques
and to explore new technologies in FY 1987.
b.
Financial
Of the $189. OK
initially budgeted, $194. 7K was spent.
5.
Objective B, Task
1— Resource Library2
Technical
The Parapsychology Sources of Information Center (PSIC—Rhea A.
White,
Director) has just completed the
first year of a multiyear effort intended to provide
and maintain an extensive data-base
facility
for parapsychological literature.
During this
first
year, PSIC purchased the necessary hardware and software and implemented the
first working
version of the data base.
In addition, the PSIC has entered approximately sixteen years of
abstracts for each of the major parapsychological journals, ending with the current issue.
The
overall goal
is to eventually include abstracts of bibliographic information of the entire
literature of parapsychology in the data-base.
Although the core of the data base
will consist
of English-language parapsychological journals,
it
will also include books, chapters,
dissertations and theses, separate reports, and conference proceedings.
Additionally, the data
base
will include abstracts
(in English)
of parapsychological literature not originally written in
English,
as well as articles on parapsychology in the journals of other disciplines
(e.g.,
psychology, psychiatry, physics).
b.
Financial
Of the $45. OK
initially budgeted, $44. 7K was spent.
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6.
Objective C, Task
1—Health Assessments
a.
Technical
Those individuals who have been selected (from the larger subject
pool)
to participate
in experiments have been asked to undergo a medical examination to
include
•
•
Height, weight, pulse, and blood pressure
•
Blood analysis to include
Hgb or Hct
Urea nitrogen
Sugar
•
Urinalysis for albumin or sugar.
Scheduling of medical examinations for experiment participants
commenced during the third quarter, and eleven individuals have undergone examinations as
of the close of FY
1986.
b.
Financial
Of the $118.9K
initially budgeted, S55.6K was reprogrammed to
Objective
E, Task
8.
Thus,
$58. 3K was budgeted and $52. 5K was spent.
The original budget
assumed that
all 100 potential participants in the project would be required to have a medical
exam.
Later,
it was decided that only the actual participants need take the exam.
7.
Objective C, Task 2—Personality Assessment3
a.
Technical
In the continuation of a promising FY 1984
effort, the development of
remote viewing (RV) subject selection criteria has continued to center, primarily, on
performance-based psychological testing, and secondarily on the use of self-report
instruments.
The particular performance battery that was used both in this study and in the
earlier FY 1984 study
is the Personality Assessment System (PAS).
The PAS provides a
comprehensive interpretive framework for profiles of subtest performances that have been
generated by the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scales (WAIS).
The principal self-report test
under examination was the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI).
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b.
Financial
The contract was not awarded because of administrative problems at
the Psychophysical Research Laboratories.
Of the original $16. OK budgeted for this task,
$8. OK
will be carried forward to FY 1987.
The remaining $8. OK was used to cover
unscheduled administration costs.
10.
Objective C, Task 5—Neuropsychological Assessment4
a.
Technical
One of the long-term goals of the neuropsychological assessment
project, should we be able
to demonstrate
reliable and consistent psychoenergetic functioning,
is to assess the role of brain mechanisms and processes in the mediation of psychoenergetic
output.
As a beginning effort in this direction,
a neuropsychologist, Dr. Ralph Kiernan, was
contracted on a consulting basis to
(1) review the Personality Assessment System (PAS)
data,
and
(2) based on patterns found in these data, develop specific hypotheses that could be
tested with a series of neuropsychological
tests.
His efforts resulted in a critique of the PAS
as personality measure,
a theory of psychoenergetic function involving the frontal lobes, and a
battery of tests to examine positive frontal function as correlated with significant
psychoenergetic functioning.
b.
Financial
*'
Of the $16. OK
initially budgeted, $12.2K was spent resulting in an
underexpenditure of $3.8K.
Dr. Kiernan did not require
as much time as he originally
estimated to
fulfill the requirements for this task.
11.
Objective D, Task
1—Develop RV Training Protocols5
a.
Technical
At SRI, the apparent
ability of certain individuals to provide correct
descriptive information of concealed photographs or remote
sites has been designated Remote
Viewing (RV).
While latent ability and motivation undoubtedly play a significant role, certain
accomplished remote viewers have claimed that RV can be taught and learned to varying
degrees.
In FY 1986, SRI awarded a subcontract to Consultants International
(Cl)
for the
purpose of providing a detailed report by an expert viewer of the subjective experiences
associated with RV.
The goal of Cl’s report was to suggest procedures that might evolve into
a testable training methodology.
SRI furnished an additional report to present,
in abbreviated
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form, the basic principles and techniques that Cl proposed.
For the purpose of testing the
value of these ideas as a training methodology, two key concepts have emerged.
These two
concepts are that:
(1)
a perceptual “window” or “channel”
to RV data may be briefly opened
on demand through proper application of a stimulus-response type technique, and
(2) once
access to the target has been established, correct impressions are
fleeting, vague, and generally
indistinct in outline;
this information
is captured as “bits”
of data, which are said to have a
symbolic character.
b.
Financial
Of the $34. OK
initially budgeted,
$33. 7K was spent.
12.
Objective D, Task 2—Test and Develop RV Training Protocols
a.
Technical
i.
Novice RV Training
In FY 1986, SRI began a novice RV training program, using nine
individuals selected by psychological profiling and a training technology based on the two
concepts outlined under Task D-l above.
The
results of this experiment
will be reported at
the end of the
first quarter of FY 1987.
ii.
Advanced RV Training
,.
Two experienced remote viewers (Number 009 and Number 342),
who have been responsible
for helping to formulate advanced training directions, were
formally calibrated during FY 1986.
Viewer 009 was tested in an experimental series
involving National Geographic Magazine targets; Viewer 342 was calibrated in a series using
outbound
sites in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Both percipients demonstrated strong,
statistically significant evidence of functioning.
In the advanced training program, hypothesis formulation and
testing
is currently underway in conjunction with Consultants International.
Three out of four
advanced training participants produced statistically significant RV results in an experiment
designed to test whether production of photons occurs concomitantly with successful RV (see
13. a. i. below).
b.
Financial
Of the $377. OK
initially budgeted, $388. 2K was spent.
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13.
Objective E, Task
1—Fundamentals
a.
Technical
The two experiments under Fundamentals that were approved by the
SRI Human Use Review Board (HURB)
involve
(1)
a replication of an FY 1984 study
claiming weak correlation between RV figure of merit and the noise emanating from a
photomultiplier, 4 and
(2)
a study of dependency of RV quality upon feedback parameters.
The instrumentation necessary for both experiments has been installed in newly acquired
laboratory space.
Final reports detailing the
results of both experiments
will be delivered at
the end of 3rd Quarter FY 1987.
i.
Photomultiplier Experiment6
We conducted a replication of work published in FY 1984
in
which we experimentally examined the
possibility that light
is emitted in the
vicinity of
correctly identified remote viewing (RV)
target material.
In that earlier experiment,
a
state-of-the-art, ambient temperature, photon counting system was used to monitor the target
material (35-mm slides of National Geographic Magazine photographs).
The
statistical
measure derived from the photon counting apparatus in that study showed a significant
positive correlation with the RV results
(p <, 0.035).
That
is, when the remote viewing was
good, there was an increase in the signal detected by the photon counting system.
In
addition, we observed two anomalous pulses having a signal-to-noise
ratio of about 20-40:1.
In the FY 1986 experiment, we improved
all hardware aspects of
the previous work, substantially reducing the background noise
level, and improving shielding
against artifact.
In addition, analysis of the remote viewing indicates that three out of the four
viewers produced independently significant results.
If the probability of success
is p <
0.05,
the binomial probability of obtaining three out of four successful results by chance
is p <,
0.00048.
These RV results are substantially better than those achieved
in the FY 1984 study.
At this time, we have not completed the detailed statistical analysis comparing the
photomultiplier tube (PMT) output with the RV results.
However,
all data collection
is
complete and visual inspection of the RV
trials does not reveal any large anomalous pulses.
Our preliminary conclusion
is that the anomalies observed earlier were the result of transients
in the experimental apparatus arising from normal sources.
ii.
Feedback Dependency Experiment7
The issue of information source in a correct remote viewing (RV)
response has practical implications for experimental protocols as well as for defining the
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mechanism involved.
In an attempt to partially address the issue of information source, we
designed an experiment to examine the role of feedback in an RV experiment.
For purposes of learning, immediate feedback
(in the form of
pictorial representations of target material) has become a standard part of our RV protocol.
We wish to determine the degree to which the quality of an RV response
is a function of the
magnitude of feedback.
Four calibrated remote viewers
will receive tachistoscopically
delivered feedback of target pictures at varying intensity levels.
Figure of merit analysis of RV
data
will be correlated with the intensity level of the feedback.
b.
Financial
Of the S252.0K
initially budgeted, $265. 9K was spent.
The 5.5%
overrun on
this project
is because of minor additional administration costs and unforeseen
task start-up costs.
14.
Objective E, Task 2—Search8
a.
Technical
One reported psychoenergetic
skill, known to the general public as
“dowsing,”
is the
ability to locate
lost or hidden items of interest.
In an effort to bring this
putative
ability that we
call “search”
into the laboratory, we conducted a
computer-assisted-search (CAS) experiment.
Participants scanned a computer graphics
display and attempted to locate a hidden computer-generated target.
We explored two
conditions:
(1) the target was fixed in space-space condition, and
(2) the target was
randomly shifting locations each millisecond—time condition.
Eight of 36 participants showed
above chance
ability (p < 0.027)
to find computer-generated targets in our laboratory
simulation of dowsing
ability.
This replicates and extends the results of work done in FY
1984, and provides a pool of individuals for a formal study of search techniques.
A
final
report detailing advances in search technology
will be delivered at the end of the 3rd Quarter
FY 1987.
b.
Financial
Of the $252. OK
initially budgeted, $263. 2K was spent.
The 4.4%
overrun on this project
is because of minor additional administration costs and unforeseen
task start-up costs.
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15'
Objective E, Task 3—Pseudorandom Number Generators (PRNG) 9
a.
Technical
The hypothesis under test with the pseudorandom number generator
(PRNG) experiment
is whether individuals are able to make a decision (and subsequently act
upon
it) based upon information available only at a future time.
We have developed a
model,
called Intuitive Data Sorting (IDS),
that might account
for such an
ability.
The
particular mathematical formulation of the IDS model applied to PRNG experiments contains
a specific prediction: the z-score distribution derived from the PRNG data
will possess a
variance significantly greater than one.
A secondary consideration
is to determine whether the
variance contains a sequence length dependency.
We accomplish this by varying the sequence
length resulting from a single press of a button.
In 1985, Radin and May* reported pilot results
for two participants
(Number 105 and Number 531) who were selected on the basis of past successful
performance
in PRNG experiments.
In the 1985
pilot experiment, participants 531 and 105
contributed 500 and 298
trials respectively.
The analysis showed that neither of the
participants produced sequence length dependencies different from MCE
(i.e.,
a slope of
—0.5).
However, the analysis revealed that both individuals showed independently significant
evidence
for IDS
(i.e,. the intercepts were significantly above MCE at the p < 0.005
level for
each participant).
Thus, our tentative conclusion from these data
is that IDS appears
possible,
at least with these two participants.
During the FY 1986 program, we conducted the experiment in two
phases:
a screening phase and an experiment phase.
For the screening phase, we asked 20
individuals to contribute 100
trials each under the protocol described above.
All but four of
them completed this task.
For availability reasons,
the remaining participants contributed
varying numbers of trials
(less than
100).
We had decided to select seven individuals from
within the pilot group to participate in a formal PRNG IDS experiment.
The criterion for
being included in the formal group was that the participant had to produce a significant
increase above MCE of the variance of the z-score distribution over 100
trials
(the MCE
variance =
1.0).
Radin, D.
I., and May, E. C., “Testing the Intuitive Data Sorting Model with Pseudorandom Nurpber
Generators: A Proposed Method,”
Proceedings of the Presented Papers of the 29th Annual
Parapsychological Association Convention,
pp. 539-554, Sonoma State University, Rohnert Park,
California (August 1986)
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Of the
16 participants who finished the 100
trial series, only one,
Number 531, met the above requirement (variance =
1.37, p < 0.008).
The second best
performer, however, produced a variance =
1.21
(p < 0.07).
Judging from the 1984 study,
we would not expect to see a significant intercept after only 100
trials, and none were
observed.
While
it
is particularly interesting that Participant 531 maintains his/her
consistent performance, we
felt that we should continue the pilot screening until we are able
to select seven significant participants.
Thus,
at this point, we have nothing to report for the
formal experiment.
b.
Financial
Of the $62. 5K
initially budgeted,
$64. OK was spent.
16.
Objective E, Task 4—IDS Test9
a.
Technical
We have been in the process of developing a comprehensive model of
psychoenergetic functioning called Intuitive Data Sorting (IDS).
Extending purely
philosophical arguments, we derive specific mathematical predictions for the interpretation of
random number generator experiments.
In our analysis of an RNG experiment conducted at
the Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research (PEAR) laboratory at Princeton University, we
note that we
3're consistent with their analysis: while the magnitude of the effects are small,
they are, nonetheless, persistent and statistically robust.
Unfortunately,
their data were not collected to provide a specific test
of our IDS model.
Thus, the sequence lengths that were chosen and, more importantly, the
number of trials collected at each sequence length, were not optimized for our test.
In the
extreme,
if
all the data were collected at a single sequence length, our IDS analysis would be
completely inappropriate
(i.e., the IDS formalism requires testing as a function of sequence
length).
To
first order, these Princeton data suffer from the same problem.
Sixty-five
percent of the total data were collected at a single sequence length
(i.e,, 2,000), which was
the only sequence length that scored a mean chance expectation.
Because the data were not
collected uniformly as a function of sequence length,
it
is difficult to interpret the
results of
analysis.
It
is, therefore, premature to speculate upon forms of either remote action (RA)
or
IDS models that can
fit their data.
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b.
Financial
Of the $11. OK
initially budgeted, $10. 9K was spent.
17.
Objective E, Task 5—RA Effects on RNGs 10
a.
Technical
In FY 1986, SRI awarded a subcontract to the Communication Studies
Department at Syracuse University for the purpose of determining the effects of distance
between remote action (RA) subjects and random number generators (RNGs) and to
determine subjects’ performance differences in influencing RNG’s based on fundamentally
different sources of random noise.
This subcontract
is in part a
“joint venture,” because SRI
is providing three different RNGs and a computer-controlled communications link to serve as
the
“distant”
half of the experiment.
Unforeseen delays arose in the subcontracting process, and as a result
the subcontract was not in place until 24 June
1986.
These delays were due to questions
regarding the use of human subjects, differences in the cost-accounting procedures of SRI and
Syracuse,
a dispute over the publication approval process, and the designation of a new
principal investigator at Syracuse.
(Professor Edward Storm has replaced Dr. Robert Morris
who moved to Edinburgh University in January of 1986.)
As a consequence of the delayed
start, no experimental data were recorded as of 15 November 1986.
However,
all of the
specialized hardware and software necessary to generate random numbers from a noise diode,
3-decay, and a pseudorandom algorithm have been developed and debugged.
In addition,
the telecommunications data link software has been written and test data have been
successfully transmitted between SRI and Syracuse.
The
staff at Syracuse has volunteered to
complete the pilot and confirmation experimental work so that we anticipate receiving a report
on the outcome during FY 1987.
b.
Financial
Of the $38. OK initially budgeted,
$37. 4K was spent.
18.
(U)
Objective E, Task 6—RA Effects on Skin Parameters 11
a.
Technical
The Mind Science Foundation (MSF) examined possible remote
action influences on biological systems.
This experiment attempted to determine whether an
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apparent RA influence on the electrodermal activity of an individual could be explained in
part by intuitive data sorting during the experiment rather than by an actual RA “force.”
The
results provided evidence for a psi effect in the RA condition
(p = 0.019), no evidence
for a
psi effect in the IDS condition, and a psi score superiority of the RA over the IDS condition,
which very closely approached significance
(p = 0.08, two-tailed).
We note, however, two problems in the experimental procedure that
render these results uninterpretable.
One,
a
rest period whose duration was determined by
the key participant was interposed after each effort period.
Because a fundamental difference
in the two conditions was intended to be a fixed versus
flexible protocol, the effect of this
variable
rest period was to render the RA and IDS conditions indistinguishable when
attempting to interpret the outcome.
Second, the order in which the two conditions were
carried out during the experiment was based upon the timing of a computer keyboard carriage
return, which occurred while the experimenter was entering information about the subject.
If
we assume the existence of psychic functioning,
it
is clear from the above procedure that the
experimenter had the
first opportunity to “sort” the data.
In this way, the experimenter could
have enhanced the probability that the
final outcome of the study would conform to his/her
prejudice.
In our Recommendation Section, 11 we submit alternative protocols to help alleviate
these
difficulties in future experiments.
b.
Financial
Of the $16.OK
initially budgeted, $15. 8K was spent.
19.
(U)
Objective E, Task 7—Correlates with ELF and Geomagnetic Variables
a.
Technical
(U)
As a result of extensive analysis of the subcontractor’s Statement of Work
and qualifications, the decision was made to terminate Time Research Institute’s subcontract.
This termination was effective
19 May 1986.
The reasons for termination of this subcontract
are outlined under Chapter
III, Problem Areas.
b.
Financial
Of the $107. OK
initially budgeted, $106. IK was spent.
While this
task was halted on
19 May
1986, SRI personnel time was required for the orderly suspension
of activity.
Thus, there was not an appreciable savings in cost.
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Objective E, Task 8
ra Effects on Strain Gauges
a.
Technical
<,p T
.
.
.
Researchers
from John F. Kennedy University, under subcontract from
„
ij
6 Pr0Vlded flVC PartIC,Pants for a series of remote action experiments conducted 'at
participant was asked to influence one of a pair of piezoelectric strain gauges,
operating in anticoincidence mode
so as
cr>
.
,
,
,
ae ’ so as t0 Produce an event above a predetermined
threshold.
The threshold was definoH
defined as a system output of 25 mV, where
4 mV
is the
normal system noise.
Altocether
together, the
five participants contributed 20 sessions, each lastine
approximately 90 minutes.
The las, eight sessions were conduce, unde, the most rigorou
condiuons, ,n which the sensor enclosure was in a inched laboratory adjacent » ihe
P
cipant s room.
At that point, the participant was approximately three meters from the
sensor pair.
Under those conditions, one of the participants produced a
total of 11 events
above threshold distributed in three separate effort periods over two sessions on different days.
r
uuuio m lcngm were recorded with no one
present
the experimental room but with normal activity in the rest of the building
No
equivalent, uncorrelated events above threshold were detected in those control periods
Known sources of artifactual events (electromagnetic, acoustic, mechanical, infrared) were
considered, and wherever possible were controlled, minimized, or measured.
However
some
potential bu, unlihely sources of artifact (such as cosmic rays or extremely low-frequeniy
magnetic fields) were excluded from consideration in this
Initial series of experiments.
The
P
iminary and pilot nature of these sessions cannot be stressed too strongly,
especially
because a„ possible sources o, artifact have not been excluded.
Nonethel". our collusion
this time
.s that sufficient data have been collected
to warrant further investigation.
amount
S 79 OK
^ S3°'6K
‘ni“a ‘ly bUd8“d “
‘° S78.8K.
Of this
amount, $79. 9K was spent.
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21.
Objective E, Task 9—RA Effects on Marine Algae 13
a.
Technical
The College of Marine Studies of the University of Delaware has been
conducting experiments with Dunaliella algae
for a number of years.
They claim that
individuals are able to cause significant changes in the velocity of single algae
cells.
SRI
International has formulated a different hypothesis to explain their putative effect— i.e.,
individuals
initiate experimental runs at a time during which the algae
will naturally swim in
the prescribed fashion.
This
ability
is called Intuitive Data Sorting.
The interim technical
report on this experiment contains a historical overview of the effort at the University of
Delaware and a detailed outline of a proposed experimental test of the IDS model.
b.
Financial
Of the $16.OK
initially budgeted, $16. OK was spent.
22.
Objective F, Task 1—Single Particle Hardware
a.
Technical
'•
Single Oi-particle Experiment
The 4th Quarter FY 1986
final report detailing the status of the
single a-particle experiment
is included in
its entirety as Appendix B.
Single Photon Experiment 14
Since the inception of quantum mechanics, there has been a
debate as to whether consciousness plays a part in determining physical
reality.
We propose
an experiment to examine
this question empirically.
In a standard, few-photon
Michelson-Morley interference experiment,
a quantum effect
(i.e., interference)
is seen
because of the uncertainty about which path was traversed by the photon.
We
will modify
this standard interferometer by placing a shutter, controlled by a random event derived from
3-decay,
in each of the two interference paths.
When both shutters are open simultaneously
(i.e., equivalent to the standard setup), an interference pattern
will be seen at the detector.
If both shutters are closed simultaneously, no
light reaches the detector.
If a human
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“observer”
is watching while one or the other shutter
is closed, no interference
is seen.
E. H.
Walker claims that this
is so not because of the apparatus
(i.e., the metal shutter stops
light),
but rather because the observer knows which path was traversed by the photon.*
We test Walker’s hypothesis by asking what happens when one
shutter at a time
is open and the observer does not know (and can never learn) which one
is
open when.
There are two possible
results:
(1) an interference pattern
will be seen, or
(2) no
pattern
will be seen.
If the
first case
is true, Walker would be correct.
The metal shutter
would not be sufficient to determine
reality.
Because consciousness
(i.e., the knowledge
about which shutter was closed)
is the only element that was missing, we would conclude that
consciousness
is necessary to determine
reality.
The prevailing opinion in physics, however,
is
that consciousness
is not necessary, and therefore no interference pattern
will be seen.
b.
Financial
Of the $60. OK
initially budgeted, $59. 2K was spent.
23.
Objective F, Task 2—Real-Time Computer and RA Hardware
a.
Technical
We received the following real-time computer hardware and interface
equipment on or near
15 March
1986:
•
Sun Microsystem 3/160 computer including
4 Mbytes of main memory
1 75-Mbyte disk
2 color monitors, keyboards, and mice
1 ethernet interface
1 GPIB interface
for the CAMAC real-time front end.
•
CAMAC interface equipment including
-
1 CAMAC crate
-
1 CAMAC GPIB crate controller
-
6-channel, 50-MHz counter
16-bit relay-output register
Walker,
E. H.,
Private Communication,
(June 1985).
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48-bit change-of-state module
Dataway display
8-channel,
12-bit, 100-kHz transient recorder (ADC)
32 Kbyte memory
Programmable clock
Prototype module.
Since that date, the real-time computer system has been working in a
projection mode by controlling the photomultiplier tube and the tachistoscope experiment.
b.
Financial
Of the $85.OK initially budgeted, $90. 7K was spent resulting in an
overexpenditure of $4.3K.
This overrun was due to unexpected hardware
failure.
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III PROBLEM AREAS
As a
result of the SOC comments at the commencement of the FY 1986 program,
substantial criticism was directed toward the Time Research Institute (TRI) subcontract.
An
extensive review of TRI’s proposed Statement of Work,
facilities, techniques, and
qualifications was subsequently carried out by SRI, and three major problem areas were
revealed:
(1) tenuous overall scientific justification for pursuing this area of investigation;
(2)
inaccurate measurement techniques employed by TRI; and
(3) questionable
statistical
approaches proposed by TRI for data analysis.
As a result of this review, the decision was made to terminate TRI’s subcontract.
This termination was effective
19 May 1986.
At the time of the termination, approximately
$25,000 remained in this subcontract.
TRI has provided an initial estimate of approximately
$9,800 in termination expenses.
According to Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR),
however, TRI has until one year after the termination date to formalize
its claims.
In
addition,
a determination must be made as to the disposition of the equipment purchased by
the subcontractor under the present contract and the one immediately preceding.
Therefore,
a
final settlement on the TRI subcontract
is
still pending.
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IV ADMINISTRATIVE COMMENTS
This section has been included to provide a chronological overview of the
following significant technical and administrative meetings that took place during FY 1986:
•
The Scientific Oversight Committee (SOC) met for the
first time on 6
January 1986 to discuss and review the protocols for the proposed
experiments for FY
1986.
•
A technical meeting was held on 26 February 1986 with C. Honorton
(Psychophysical Research Laboratories) and D.
I. Radin
(Bell
Laboratories)
to discuss technical issues concerning the meta-analysis of
random number generator data.
•
Client representatives visited SRI on
12 March 1986 to discuss
administrative and technical issues and to obtain a program status
update.
•
SRI personnel met with E. H. Walker (Aberdeen Proving Ground) on 21
March 1986 to discuss the
feasibility of implementing Walker’s proposed
single-photon experiment.
•
SRI personnel attended the Personality Assessment System (PAS) annual
conference that was held in Arlington, Virginia, from 18 to 20 April
1286.
The purpose was to obtain an overview of current PAS
applications and to determine the status of PAS acceptance within the
mainstream psychological community.
•
A technical meeting was held on 27 June 1986 with consultant J.
Spottiswoode to discuss technical issues concerning the evaluation of RV
data.
•
On 25 and 26 September 1986, SRI personnel met with researchers at
the Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research laboratory for technical
discussions concerning RV evaluation technologies.
•
On 6 and 7 November 1986, SRI reconvened with the SOC for a
year-end review of the FY 1986 program.
As a result of these meetings,
the SOC provided a posteriori assessments of the FY 1986 experimental
designs and protocols.
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V PROJECT MILESTONE CHART
The overall project milestone chart for FY 1986
is shown in Table
2.
Table 2
ENHANCED
HUMAN
PERFORMANCE INVESTIGATION—FY 1986
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VI
COST SUMMARY
The following
is the overall project cost summary that was referenced in Chapter
I,
Introduction.
Table
3 shows a cost summary on a task-by-task basis.
The amount budgeted in
the SOW for each Objective/Task was divided into project and administrative costs.
The
amount spent
is shown as project and administrative costs also.
The totals and percent
differences are shown in the
last two columns respectively.
Any significant difference
is
explained under the appropriate Objective/Task heading in Chapter
II.
Total project expenditures are detailed in Table
4.
These funds reflect expended
funds, but do not include committed, but unspent, funds.
The data in Table
3, however,
include committed funds.
The project total expenditure for FY 1986 was within $500 of the budgeted
amount of S1.887.5K.
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4.
Training PE subjects.
5.
Selection procedures for screening PE subjects.
Operationally defining valid,
reliable measures of RV,
etc.,
training, learning.
7.
Need to simplify number of projects and procedures within project.
8.
Need a statement from SRI
staff about their views
as
to
their confidence
levels of
belief in various PE phenomena.
And what they need to increase their confidence
and what they believe would increase the confidence
levels of skeptics.
9.
Potential application demonstrations to be done.
Working
for two masters—mixed
directions—mixed bag of projects.
10.
Obtaining
scientific
credibility
in
academic/research
community
of
this
particular
project.
11.
Conclusions are stated
in non-conservative terms that are excessive
in the scientific
community “striking,” “powerful,”
for relatively weak effects.
But are necessary to
convince contractor.
12.
Too much
is
going on
to
expect
such
quality
control.
Action:
Cut back
on
subcontractors; have
staff member
directly responsible
as
liaison
to each
sub.;
set
specific
guidelines
re:
procedural
safeguards,
data
analysis,
data
reporting,
get
preliminary proposal for staff review prior to any public report.
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Appendix B
SINGLE a-PARTICLE EXPERIMENTAL HARDWARE
(This Appendix
is UNCLASSIFIED)
by
G. Scott Hubbard
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