Table
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at
end
of
rank
ordering
are
all
assigned
mean
of
remaining
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to worst
match;
rating 0-100,
zero to complete correspondence;
arbitrary
scale rating arrived at
by some 'complex procedure involving many factors
such as occurs in multiple- judge voting, etc.)
The argument
is
as
follows.
In the absence
of knowledge as
to which transcript was generated
in response
to which target,
one observes that
in setting up the matrix there
are
n’. possible ways to label the columns
(transcripts),
given any particular
order of the rows
(targets),
and vice versa.
Thus,
there are
n.
possible
matrices which could be constructed from the raw
judging data,
all
of them
equally likely a priori
.
Each has its associated sum on the diagonal
corresponding to
a possible alignment
of targets and transcripts.
The significance
level
for the experiment
is then determined by
counting the number of possible matrices that would yield a result
(diagonal
sum) equal
to or better
(i.e.,
lower sum of ranks in the rank-order
case,
higher sum of scores
in the correspondence-rating case,
etc.)
than that
obtained for the matrix corresponding
to the key, and dividing
by
n.
This
ratio gives
the probability of obtaining by chance
a result equal
to or
better than that obtained in the actual
judging process.
The
calculation method
just outlined has
in common with the
previous approach
(the direct-match statistic)
that the various
judging
steps are not required to be independent.
It
is
more precise, however,
in that
it takes into account measures
of transcript quality represented
by the whole range
of rank-order numbers
,
not
just the number of direct
matches.
For the
9 X 9 matrix under consideration we have by direct
count
p = 32/9
•
= 8.8 X 10"5
,
a result which in this
case
is essentially the
same as that obtained by the direct-match statistic.
Finally we note,
as an item of interest
to be discussed later,
that in
trials
3,
4, and
6 through
9,
the subject was secured in a
double-walled copper screen Faraday cage, which provides
120-dB attenua-
tion for plane-wave radio-frequency radiation over the range
of
15 kHz
to
1 GHz.
The results
of the
judging indicate that the use of
such
shielding does
not prevent high-quality descriptions
from being obtained.
D.
Replication Series
Having completed this initial series
of trials with SI, we
concluded that remote viewing appeared to be both a real and a robust
phenomenon.
We then carried out replication experiments with other sub-
jects
(the results
of which are given in detail in Reference
2) until we
had established a data base of over 50 trials.
A summary tabulation of
the statistical evaluations
of these trials
(with nine subjects)
is
presented in Table
2.
Of the
six studies,
involving remote viewing of
natural targets or laboratory apparatus, five reached statistical sig-
nificance.
The overall results, evaluated conservatively on the basis
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Table
SUMMARY:
REMOTE VIEWING OF LOCAL TARGETS
Subject
Number of
Experiments
p-Value
,
Rank
Order Judging
With natural targets
SI
8.8 X 10-5
S2 and
S3
(four each)
5.2 X 10" 4
S4
1.7 X 10-3
S5 and S6
(four each)
0.08
(NS)
VI and V2
(three;
two)
0.033
With technology targets
S2,
S3,
S4
,
V2
,
V3
0.044
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of
a judging procedure that ignored transcript quality beyond that
necessary to rank order the data packets
(vastly underestimating
the
statistical significance
of individual descriptions),
clearly indicated
the presence
of an information channel
of useful
bit rate.
The descrip-
tions supplied by the subjects,
although containing inaccuracies, were
sufficiently accurate to permit
the
judges
to differentiate
(blind) among
various
targets
to the degree that roughly 50% of the transcripts were
directly matched.
E.
Criticisms
Three major criticisms have been raised with regard
to this work
We now address each in turn.
(1)
A statistical procedure used to evaluate the
judging
matrices
in earlier publications 2
has been criticized
on the basis
that
the
judge’s
rank order assignments
for
a given target may not
be independent
of
his assign-
ments
for other targets. 22
This
has
been rectified
in this paper
by the use
of
the direct-count-of-
permutations method
(introduced in Section C) which
does
not assume independence
of assignments.
The p-values
quoted in Table
2 are therefore the corrected ones.
As
it turns
out
,
the updated values do not differ
significantly from the previously published ones
(compare,
for example,
Table
2 here and Table VIII
of Ref.
2), and therefore interpretations
as
to the
significance
of
the data are unaffected.
(2)
It has been suggested that post-trial feedback to the
subject during an experimental
series may provide
information to the subject which helps him to narrow
down the field
of
target possibilities
in later trials
("closed-deck"
fallacy).23
The target pool was
carefully
constructed, however,
to contain several targets
of any
given type— that
is,
several fountains,
several
churches,
several boathouses, and so forth—specifically to
circumvent the strategy of
"I had a fountain yesterday,
so it
can't be a fountain today."
(In Ref.
see,
for
example,
fountain targets in tables
IV and V and in
figures
7,
8,
and
15;
churches in tables
II and
III;
boat marinas in tables
II and V and figure
14;
and so
forth).
Thus,
the content
of
a given target,
determined
by random entry into the target pool,
is
essentially
independent
of
the contents
of
other targets
("open-
deck" design).
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(3)
The initial experimental series
of
9 trials with Subject
SI
(Section B) was
criticized on the basis that extraneous
cues in the unedited subject transcripts might provide
additional information useful to judges attempting to
blind match transcripts
to target
sites
(e.g., phrases
from which one might
infer
the temporal order
of the
transcripts.) 24
To test
this hypothesis,
the entire data
set was turned over to an independent researcher
,
who
set himself the task of reanalyzing the entire experiment,
taking into account
this
criticism.
To execute this
task,
he first edited the transcripts,
removing all phrases
which had been suggested as
possible cues, together with
any additional phrases for which even the weakest post-hoc
cue argument
could be made.
He then arranged to have the
set re-blind- judged by an individual unfamiliar with this
study.
The result:
the same seven out
of nine were
directly matched as had been matched previously,
and
the direct-count-of-permutations analysis
of the matrix
yielded a result somewhat more significant than in the
original study
(p = 8/91
= 2.2 X 10 ®).
Thus,
the
hypothesis that the matches
in the original study were
due to artifactual
cues was
soundly rejected,
and the
paranormal interpretation upheld. 26
Given
(1)
the failure of the cueing-artifact hypothesis
to account
for the success
of
the
first study,
(2)
the inapplicability of that hypothe-
sis to our later replication studies
(the
judging protocols were carefully
checked prior to judging to insure absence
of potential
cues),
(3)
the open-
deck strategy in target pool design,
(4)
the refinement of the statistical
procedures without
loss of significance,
and
(5)
the continuing successful
replication of
this work in our own and other laboratories,
the remote
viewing data has withstood every attempt on the part
of ourselves and
others over the
years
to find some alternate explanation.
Thus,
remote
viewing continues to be confirmed as
a viable human perceptual ability.
*Prof
.
Charles
T.
Tart, Dept,
of Psychology,
University of California,
Davis
.
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IV
PHYSICS PRINCIPLES POTENTIALLY APPLICABLE TO PSI PHENOMENA
One of the common objections to the psi hypothesis
is
that
it would
seem to be in conflict with the
laws
of
ph-ysics.
In opposition to this
view, many workers
in the field are of the opinion that the data will
in
all probability be accounted for either within the framework of physics
as presently understood,
or within the framework of extrapolations that
have been proposed to account
for other
(non-psi)
data.
The areas
of physics
put forward for consideration as potentially
relevant
to modeling
psi
phenomena include:
the possibility that remote
viewing is mediated by extremely low-frequency
(ELF) electromagnetic
^
waves; 27-33
the possible significance for remote viewing
of Bell's theorem
in quantum theory which requires
interconnectedness
of
distant events in
a manner that
is contrary to ordinary experience36- 36
(experimentally
confirmed at
the microscopic level); 37-38
the proper interpretation^of^the
effects
of an observer
(consciousness)
on experimental measurement,
of possible significance in psychokinesis;
the possibility that
the
advanced-potential solutions
in physics play a role in so-called precog-
nition; 42-44
and the potential relevance
(for a general theory of
psi
phenomena)
of theories based on geometries which provide
for
a more
extended structure
of the space-time metric.
Although little progress has
been made toward a rapprochement between
psi and physics,
physicists
like ourselves are making an effort
to design
and carry out experiments which can in principle shed light on the alterna-
tive models.
As a conservative start,
a reasonable first hypothesis would
be that remote viewing
is mediated by extremely low-frequency
(ELF) elec-
tromagnetic waves,
a hypothesis that
does
not seem to be categorically
ruled out by any obvious physical or biological facts.
This
hypothesis,
discussed in some detail
in a series
of papers by
I.
M. Kogan of the Soviet Union,
suggests that
information transfer under
conditions
of sensory shielding
is mediated by ELF waves with wavelengths
in the 300 to 1000-km region. 27-30
Experimental support
for the hypothesis
is
claimed on the basis
of:
less than inverse square attenuation with
distance,
compatible both with earth-ionosphere waveguide mode trapping,
and with source-percipient distances
lying in the induction field range
as opposed to the radiation field range;
observed low bit rates
(0.005-0.1
bits/s)
compatible with the information-carrying capacity of
ELF waves;
apparent ineffectiveness
of ordinary electromagnetic shielding as an
attenuator;
and standard antenna calculations entailing biologically
generated currents yielding results compatible with observed signal-to—
noise ratios
.
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On the negative side with regard to
a straightforward ELF inter-
pretation as
a blanket hypothesis
are:
(a)
apparent high-resolution,
real-time descriptions
of remote activities
in sufficient detail
to
require
a channel capacity in all probability greater than that allowed
by a conventional modulation of an ELF signal;
(b)
lack of
a proposed
mechanism for coding
(and decoding)
the information onto the proposed
ELF carrier;
and
(c)
apparent precognition data.
The hypothesis
must
nonetheless remain open at
this
stage
of
research.
Experimentation to determine whether
the ELF hypothesis
is viable
can be
carried out
by the use
of ELF sources
as
targets,
by the study of
parametric dependence
on propagational directions and diurnal timing,
by
experimentation under unusual
conditions
of shielding
(e.g.,
in a submarine),
by the exploration
of distance and resolution
(target
size) effects,
and
(in some
forms
of
the model)
by
a study
of
differences
between the
presence and absence
of
a human link who can act
as
a transmitter of
the
target
.
The experiments described in the following sections were designed to
address
the above issues.
To anticipate the results,
the introduction
of
factors which might
be expected to degrade performance on the basis
of an
ELF model did not
in fact appear to affect
the channel deleteriously
,
V
LONG-DISTANCE REMOTE VIEWING FROM A SUBMARINE
In July of
1977 we
carried out
two preliminary tests
of remote viewing
from a submersible submerged in several hundred
ft
of
seawater,
approxi-
mately 500 miles
from the target
site.
This
provided an opportunity to
investigate the remote viewing phenomenon under conditions
of increased
distance and shielding.
The submersible used in the experiment was the Taurus,
a five-man
underwater vehicle
(see Figure
2)
manufactured by International Hydro-
dynamics
Company Ltd.
(HYCO)
of Canada.
Experimental time on the Taurus
was
made available
to
SRI
by Mr.
Stephan Schwartz
of the
Philosophical
Research Society of
Los Angeles, who,
as Director
of Project Deep Quest,
had arranged for
its
use
in an underwater psi archaelogy experiment.
During the experimentation discussed here,
the submersible operated
submerged in the waters near Santa Catalina
Island,
off the coast of
southern California.
The goal
of the experiment was
to provide data on the possible shielding
effects
of several hundred feet
of seawater, known to be
a good shield
for all
but the
lowest frequencies
of
the electromagnetic spectrum.
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(b)
SECTIONAL VIEW
FIGURE 2
SUBMERSIBLE TAURUS
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Table
SUBMARINE EXPERIMENT
(ELF Hypothesis)
Depth:
170
ra
Maximum-Transmission TE Wave
(normal
incidence,
10 Hz)
Rsurface
44.8 dB
loss
Rattn
18.6 dB
Total
63.4 dB
Maximum-Transmission TM Wave
*
(grazing incidence,
10 Hz)
^surface
3.4 dB
loss
Rattn
18.6 dB
Total
22.0 dB
Maximum-Transmission Quasi-TEM Wave
(grazing incidence,
10 Hz)
Rsurface
50.3 dB
loss
Rattn
18.6 dB
Total
68.9
dB
*Under the least-loss
case
(near-grazing TM wave)
,
the attenuation
for an ELF signal at
10 Hz
is
18.6 dB at
170 m,
to which must
be
added the air/surface reflection loss.
(The air/surface interface
adds another 3.4 dB .
)
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