Approved For Release 2000/08Jf^fgDP96-00789R0022001 50001-1
(U)
placed
it on a small empty table, and then rang a bell into the telephone, signaling to the viewer
to perceive the target.
The viewer than declared “yes,” “no,” or “?” and gave his response; he
then received immediate feedback from the experimenter.
For every
trial,
the experimenter
made
a
written record
of the
possible
targets,
actual
target,
declared
condition,
and
viewer
response,
as well as date and time of the
trial.
(U) The
hypothesis
being
tested
was
whether
Viewer
002
is
able
to
recognize
“contact”
with
the
target.
If
this
hypothesis
is
true,
we
would
expect
above-chance,
below-chance, and chance
results
in the “yes,”
“no,” and “?”
conditions,
respectively.
The
reason that we would expect below-chance results in the “no” condition
is that psychoenergetic
functioning
is required by the viewer
if he “knows” that he
is not in contact with the target.
In
other words,
the viewer
is willing to declare that he
is likely to be wrong.
(S/NF)
The trials
took place
at approximately
the
same
time every
day between January
and February
20,
1987,
with
a varying number of
trials per
day.
Of
147
trials
in
the
"yes"
condition,
88 were hits,
where
74 would be expected by chance.
Of
trials
in
the
"no"
condition,
were hits,
where
30 would be expected by chance.
Of
the 121 trials
in the
condition,
66 were hits,
where
61 would be expected by chance.
The
p-values
for these three conditions are 0.01,
0.05,
and 0.23,
respectively.
From p-values
alone,
it appears
that
the hypothesis
is
supported.
The trend
in the psychological
sciences
is
to use
some measure
of
"effect
size"
in conjunction with p-values.
The reason
is
that
p-values
are sample-size dependent
and,
therefore,
may mask important
results.
The
"effect
size"
for
the three conditions
is
0,20,
0.21,
and
0.09,
respectively.
This result
indicates
that
the equivalent amount
of
psychoenergetic functioning was used by Viewer 002
to determine his
degree
of contact with the
target.
We are encouraged by
this result because
it
represents
a modest
success
toward the goal
of recognizing the
source
of
"noise"
in forced-choice experiments.
(U)
During the second half of FY 1987, we conducted another series of trials of the
forced-choice
format,
using the same protocol
as described above but with
slightly
different
conditions and testing a slightly different hypothesis.
These
trials took place from 23 February
through 21 September 1987,
a
total of 82 sessions (one session per day
at approximately the
same time every day), with a varying number of trials per session.
Before each session the viewer
declared how he felt, and he assessed how successfully he would contact the targets in the coming
Approved For Release 2000/08
P96-00789R0022001 50001 -1
Approved For Release 2000l0M&t&^bJ^96-00789R002200^5000^-^
(u)
session.
Specifically,
his
pre-session
self-assessment
would
be
to
declare
one
of
three
conditions:
(1) “a plus day,”
if he
felt that he would make a significant number of contacts with
the targets,
(2) “a minus day,”
if he felt that he would not make a significant number of contacts
with the targets, or (3) “a so-so day,”
if he was not confident that he would be able to contact a
significant number of targets.
(U) The
hypothesis
being
tested
was
whether
Viewer
002
is
able
to
assess,
immediately before a series of trials,
his
ability to contact the targets
for those
trials, based on
self-knowledge of his physical, emotional, and mental well-being at that time.
If this hypothesis
is true, we might expect above-chance, below-chance, and chance results (on the average)
in
the “plus day,” “minus day,” and “so-so day”
conditions,
respectively.
(S/NF)
Of
311
trials conducted on
"plus"
days,
174 were hits,
where
156 would be expected by chance.
Of
484
trials conducted on
"minus"
days,
243 were hits,
where
242 would be expected by chance.
Of
546
trials
conducted on
"so-so"
days,
322 were hits,
where
273 would be expected by
chance.
The
sum of trials
in all
three conditions was
1,341,
with 739
hits,
where
671 would be expected by chance.
The p-values
(with
continuity corrections)
for
these three conditions
are
0.02,
0.48,
and
1.3
x
10-5
,
respectively;
the p-value
for
the
sum of all
three conditions
is
0,0001.
From the p-values
alone,
it appears
that
the hypothesis
is
supported for
the
"plus"
days,
and that
the viewer did better than
expected for
the
"minus"
and
"so-so"
days.
The z-scores
(with continuity
corrections)
for the three conditions are
2.04,
0.045,
and 4.15,
respectively;
the z-score
for the
sum of all
three conditions
is
3.71.
The effect
size
for
the three conditions
are
0.12,
0.002,
and
0.18,
respectively;
the effect
size
for
the
sum of
all
three conditions
is
0.10,
At
this
time
the
interpretation of
these results
is difficult.
Since
the
best effect
size seen
in these
series
is
of
the order
of
0.20,
a
saturation effect might be
in force
(i.e.,
the best Viewer 002 can produce
in
a binary experiment
is
an effect
size
of 0.20).
23.
(U)
Objective F, Task 11—MDS and RV Data Analysis
(U)
In experimental studies of remote viewing, the analysis of the resulting data for
accuracy
and
information
content
has
used
techniques
based
on
rankings
by
judges
and
encodings
of
targets
and
responses
with
sets
of
descriptors.
Geographical
locations
have
Approved For Release
[jlKiftliTlI T
III!
II
II
I
I
I
Approved For Release 2000/0
P96-00789R0022001 50001 -1
(U)
frequently been used for targets, few studies have investigated what attributes of such material are
preferentially conveyed or how such perceptions are represented.
Elucidation of these questions
might permit the construction of improved methods of judging remote viewing experiments.
The
analogous problems
in normal perception have been
investigated by studying the
structure
of
similarity measurements.
In this study these methods were applied to the case of remote viewing.
(U)
In
this
pilot
study,
subjects
estimated
the
global
similarity between
pairs
of
photographs of geographic locations.
The resulting matrix of similarity values was analyzed by
multidimensional scaling to give two- and three-dimensional representations of the psychological
data. A method of estimating the deviation from chance expectation was developed.
The results
for the remote viewing pilot study were compared with structures derived by multi-dimensional
scaling from a comparison study using the same
targets viewed with normal visual perception.
The remote viewing study shows no deviation from chance by the criterion developed here but
the resulting two-dimensional semantic structure shows parallels with that from the comparison
study and
gives weak
evidence
for
the
existence
of
the
underlying semantic
dimensions
of
predominantly man-made scenes versus predominantly natural scenes and the presence versus
the absence of land-water interfaces in the scenes.
24.
(U)
Objective G, Task
1, and Objective D, Task
1— Computer Search
and Dowsing
(U) One reported psychoenergetic
skill, known to the general public as dowsing,
is
the ability to locate lost or hidden items of interest.
In an effort to bring this putative ability that
we call search into the laboratory, a computer-assisted search (CAS) experiment was conducted
in FY
1984 and
again
in FY
1986.
Participants scanned
a computer graphics
display and
attempted to locate a hidden computer-generated
target.
In each experiment, two conditions
were randomly interchanged
in
a balanced protocol:
(1)
the target was
fixed
in space
(space
condition), and
(2) the target was randomly shifting locations several times each second
(time
condition).
Both the subjects and the experimenter were blind to the condition on each
trial.
(S/NF)
In FY
1984,
five of seven participants demonstrated an
above-chance ability
to
find targets
in one
of
the
two conditions:
three
in
the
time condition and two
in
the
space condition.
Of
the
participants
in
the FY 1986 experiment,
showed above-chance results
in
the
space condition and
in the
time condition.
No participant
in either
experiment was able
to
find targets
in both conditions
independently.
Approved For Release 2000109$£QMPP r 96-00789R0022001 50001 -1
Approved For Release 2000/0
P96-00789R0022001 50001 -1
(S/NF)
In FY
1987,
an experiment was conducted which successfully
replicated this
finding.
Of eight participants
(six experienced and two
novices),
one scored significantly
in
the
space condition,
and none
in
the
time condition,
However,
the
two subjects who scored
the best
in
the
space condition had previously been successful
in
that condition,
and the
subject who scored best
in
the
time condition had previously been
successful
in that condition.
This
suggests
that participants are likely
to consistently do well
in one condition or
the other,
but not
both.
(S/NF)
Since this
is
the third successful
laboratory replication
of
this experiment,
it suggests
that
this
technique for finding a hidden
target may be robust enough
to use
in military applications
for which
such
information
is needed,
such as
locating a kidnap victim
in Beirut.
The
best
subject
in
the
FY 1987 experiment
showed a reduction
in
the area
that
would need
to be searched
in 72% of
the trials
in
the
space condition,
with an average reduction
in area of
33%.
Previous experiments
showed
even greater reductions.
In real-world applications,
this could represent
a substantial
savings
in resources.
(U) A second search experiment was conducted in FY 1987 to see
if self-proclaimed
dowsers could find a
lost ship by searching a grid overlaid on a map.
The object of the search
was
a sunken Spanish
galleon
called The Atocha, which was
actually found
in
1985.
The
experiment was preceded by
a real-world search in which one of the participants successfully
located
another
sunken
ship
by
choosing
the
correct
locations
on
an
unmarked
grid.
Accompanied by SRI personnel,
the participant was
in a vessel anchored over the
site
of the
wreck at the time of the experiment. The Atocha experiment was carried out with two sets of 25
trials for each of five participants, but failed to produce a single significant
result.
25.
(U)
Objective H, Task 1—RA Effects on Single Alpha Particles
(U) Due to unforeseen circumstances, the alpha particle experiment never reached a
point where
it
was
stable
enough
to
collect
data
from human
participants.
After
careful
consideration of the cost to continue and the results of the other RA experiments for FY 1987,
it
was decided to stop work on this task.
What follows
is an engineering summary of the state of
the system at close-out.
(U)
During FY
1987,
SRI developed
a
novel,
position—sensitive
system
to
detect
alpha particles.
In order to reduce the cost and complexity of the system, we elected to employ
Approved For Release 2000/B96C BE"ltDP96-00789R0022001 50001 -1