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: CIA-RDP96-00789R002200430001-0
One government agency group of viewers was handled a bit differently from other groups
screened because of
its smaller
size and the
relatively greater time
available for testing
(two
days).
Four SRI researchers conducted the screening series at the government agency site.
Six
government employees agreed
to
participate
in four viewings each.
These
individuals were
selected randomly
(by government personnel) but participation was on a time-available basis.
None of the volunteers had previously participated in a remote viewing experiment. A rank
order analysis was used to estimate the quality of the remote viewing, but, because each person
participated in only four sessions, the power of the statistical test for an individual was extremely
low. Thus an individual would have to do exceedingly well in all four trials to provide statistically
significant evidence of RV ability.
For example, a viewer would need to score four
first place
matches, or three first place and one second place match, in order to obtain significance in four
trials.
In contrast,
if twice as many trials are considered (8 trials) and the total score is 12
(i.e.,
the same average performance),
the p-value
is
significant
(p <,
0.007).
Nonetheless, one
participant produced encouraging results with three
first place matches and a sum-of-ranks of
6.5
(p < .098,
r = 0.46).
C.
Second-Stage Results
Excluding the smaller government group, a total of 18 persons from first-stage screening
were invited to participate in second-stage screening trials.
Of the 18, 9 were able to schedule
time to participate in second-stage
trials
(if there was no possibility of obtaining a significant
result at any time after four trials, the person was dropped from the screening).
One person
discontinued testing after two trials.
Table 4 shows the number of trials, sum-of-ranks, p-value,
and effect size for the participants in second-stage screening.
Table 4
RESULTS OF SECOND-STAGE SCREENING
Viewer No.
No. of Trials
Sum-of-Ranks
p-Value
Effect Size
(r)
689
0.844
486
0.742
633
0.500
890
0.078
0.50
117
0.863
748
0.742
330
0.136
0.39
393
0.680
015
0.812
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R002200430001-0
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R002200430001-0
IV DISCUSSION
By design, the second-stage screening specified a maximum of eight
trials.
While
it
is
recognized that the statistical power is thus quite low, nonetheless we were searching for viewers
who displayed exceptional natural talent.
, This eight trial maximum was based on the ability of
our calibrated viewers.
Three viewers from the total screened population demonstrated robust RV.
While none
of the three reached statistical significance, the effect sizes (0.39, 0.46, and 0.50, respectively)
indicate that an RV hypothesis accounts for a
sizable fraction of the variance (15% to 25%)
between good and bad viewers. To put this result in perspective, Rosenthal reports the effect size
for two studies, one on the effects of psychotherapy and the other of interpersonal expectancy
effects, as being on the order of r = 0.32.*
These results are encouraging since several individuals were able to show strong evidence
of anomalous information transfer with a relatively low number of trials (time and scheduling
prevented testing of
all promising persons from the first-stage of screening)
.
Given that these
individuals were not preselected and received very little training in how to produce a response,
this method of finding additional participants for future experiments shows some merit.
Coupling
this method
with
pre-selection
criteria
that
have
shown
correlations
with
psychoenergetic
function such as results from the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, spontaneous experiences, and an
open mind toward the possibility of psychoenergetic phenomena, we could develop an even more
efficient procedure.
* Rosenthal,
R., Meta-Analytic Procedures for Social Research, p.
130, Sage Publications,
Beverly Hills,
1984.
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