Target ARPSONAE ERTS AIRARGR002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003 200779001 eust 1994 BEGIN—10:30 AM putty bails — almost cotton—iike. Cottony puify splotches. Movement — whizzing through these cottony puffs fast. Damp- ness. A long walkway & metal girders. BREAK | keep wanting to say — specifically — air- fleid landing strip. Flat land. Big airpianes would land here like navai carriers. Has a broken white line down the center of strip & you see it straight on — like you would be coming in for a landing. Figure 3. Target and response with a rating of 1. Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200220001-2
Target Aid ERAS Ob penaateiah 02/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200920Q0d aBust 1994 Rank-order We observed a statistically significant increase of AC for the static targets in the 1993 trials as compared to that of the 1992 trials (¢ = 1.68, df = 143, p < 0.047). Three of the four receivers produced indepen- dently significant results in the 1993 study and improved their results compared to those of 1992. Thus, the second hypothesis (i.e., an increase in AC for static targets) was supported. Table 6 shows the same data for the dynamic targets. Table 6. Results for Dynamic Targets i Using the rank-order statistics above, we saw no difference between static and dynamic targets in this study. The first hypothesis was confirmed: we observed a significant increase of AC with dynamic tar- gets in 1993 from that of 1992 (¢ = 3.06, df = 143, p <1.3x1075). General Discussion and Conclusions In our first experiment, we found that static targets were better than with dynamic ones. We hypothe- sized that this difference resulted from a combination of the target pool design and the receivers’ ex- pectations. Following this idea, May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994a) define target pool bandwidth as the number of differentiable cognitive elements in a target pool. They suggest that a target pool, such as our original static pool, which contains enough elements to prevent guessing, while at the same time allowing for some internal editing of receivers’ imagination, is optimal with regard to the reduction of noise. In the first experiment, the dynamic target pool did not fit this ideal. When we constructed a better dynamic pool for the second experiment, we observed commensurate increases in the effect sizes. May, Spottiswoode, and James suggest that their target pool bandwidth conceptis testable, and it is our hope that these tests will be conducted in the near future. In the second experiment, even after correcting possible defects in our target pool design, we were un- able to observe a significant target type dependency. On the other hand, the direction for a replication is clear. May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994b) suggest that they have identified an intrinsic target property that correlates with the quality of AC (i.e., gradient of Shannon’s entropy). If this is true, then there might be a fundamental argument that implies that dynamic targets should be better than static targets, all else being equal. If a dynamic and static target pool were constructed on the basis of the largest possible gradients of Shannon’s entropy, then we would expect a significant improvement of the AC effect size and a result that strongly favors the dynamic targets. Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200220001-2 16
Target ARA'SaindbF BeRMaangiag 02/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200920N0 1 Rust 1994 As we stated above, receiver 372 participated in 10 additional trials during which the target material was silently displayed, unattended, in an adjacent room. In a post hoc analysis, receiver 372 produced an average rank of 1.80 (ES = 0.849, Z = 2.68, p <3.7 x 10 ~4) for these trials and an average rank of 1.95 (ES = 0.742, Z = 3.32, p <4.5 x 10 —4) for the original 20. The t-score for the difference was 0.276 (df = 28, p < 3.7, ES = 0.343). Although there was not a significant difference, the effect size is quite large. Perhaps displaying the targets during the sessions is helpful, but a new experiment is needed to test this hypothesis. Finally, we comment upon the sender condition. Our results show, as in forced-choice AC, that a sender is not a requirement. It is reasonable to expect that if the sender condition is not blind, then some de- pendencies might be observed. Dr. Robert Morris and the research group of the Psychology depart- ment at the University of Edinburgh are currently conducting a study to answer the necessary and/or sufficient requirement of a sender. Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200220001-2 17