Approved For Release shsorosioe : cntlopee-00780R002200600001-2 B. (U) Fuzzy Set Analysis (U) Since 1972, SRI has developed many procedures to determine whether information has been obtained beyond chance expectation.S-8 In the current method,® the targets and viewer’s responses are described as: fuzzy sets of descriptor elements (e.g., presence of water). The outcome of the RV experiment is measured by a figure of merit, which is related to the accuracy and reliability of the viewer’s description of the target. y P g CY) _ “) When RV is applied | ythe analysis procedures differ considerably. In laboratory experiments, much is known about the target, but in i Yapplications, very little target information is known. Thus, the analysis technique must be modified in order to assess the "correct" RV response elements before confirming evidence can be obtained. Av) ‘ ‘*Long-standing difficulties in applying the RV phenomena to intelligence applications are at least twofold. In a lengthy response, those elements of genuine | i “significance must be identified a priori. Second, even excellent examples of remote viewing do not necessarily imply { usefulness. Therefore, RV-derived ‘data should be used in conjunction with information obtained through more conventional channels. 3 Approved For Release 21(00/08/08 : cla-tDP96-00789R002200800001-2
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200500001-2 WI APPROACH (VU) (U) SRI conducted a 26-hour RV experiment beginning at 1008 on August 24, 1988. The viewer provided data in four different work periods: at 1008 and 1500 on August 24, and at 0910 and 1120 on August 25. The details of the experiment are described below. A. (U) Remote Viewer SRI selected Viewer V372 to participate in this experiment because of his* 10-year experience as a viewer, and because he produced good results in the first experiment in this series, conducted in May, 1987. , . $ B. (U) Target Material i . Included in the target material was the functional aspect t relationships among elements: + and _the elements themselves. Cc. (U) Experiment Protocol ‘ _The SRI team was given the , mame of the experiment, a time window during which the experiment would be active, and a photograph and Social Security number of an on-site individual. Other than this, all aspects and details of the experiment were withheld from V372 and SRI personnel. * (U) To keep the identify of the viewer confidential, we refer to the viewer with the pronouns he and his regardless of the viewer’s gender. 4 Approved For Release rooliosie : cia-nedse-o07e9R002200500001.2 SG1A
_ Approved For Release 2000/08/08 IA-RDP96-00789R002200800001-2 Four sessions were conducted to provide information. The times and circumstances were &5 follows: (1) 1008 August 24 V372 was asked to describe the location and details of an event in progress. Details about pertinent personnel were also requested. (2) 1500 August 24 V372 was asked to describe details and activity at.the site demarked by the presence of the n in Tr sponsor’s on-site representative. r (3) 0910 August 25 V372 was asked to expand upon his descriptions from the previous day. (4) 1120 August 25 V372 was asked consolidate the information from the previous scans and to provide his ‘concluding remarks. During each session, V372’°s responses were tape-recorded. He was encouraged to draw details whenever possible. Drawings are contained in Appendix 4, and Appendix B contains verbatim transcripts of all four aad sessions. (Because of technical difficulties, most of the taped record of the second session was lost. Since the remaining data are intact and since the drawings from the remaining viewings are complete, this gap is <= not significant.) - 1 7 agter all raw data had been delivered to the sponsor, V372 and SRI personnel were allowed to visit the target site | for =i feedback. ~ D. (U) Analysis Technique 7 \ ‘As discussed in’ Section II, quantitative analysis in an _ intelligence setting poses problems. Any analysis of remote viewing data must be accomplished within the context of a mission statement. An / analysis designed only to demonstrate RV is inadequate to enable an —_. ee. . ‘ assessment, and vice versa. Under another program,® SRI developed a generalized analysis technique that allows for an a priori “ mission statement. An overview of that technique follows. —_- _ 5 _! Approved For Release mae i : CIA-RDP#5-00789R002200500001-2
Approved For Release 20008108 : cia-ni\pv6-o0789R002200500001.2 1. (U) Definitions The most important aspect of RV data analysis is the definition of both the target and the RV response. For this analysis, all target and response information is defined as the fuzzy sets T and R, respectively. Each is described below. t »The target is defined as a fuzzy set of target elements Tek, pk, wk]: e _ ek is an element of a target. For example, an element SG1A SG1A SG1A ® ; pk is the membership value of element ek. It re resents the degree to which ek is present at the target. for example, might have a membership value of 0.6, indicating that is cox of the target material. Determined subjectively, pk is always a value from 0 to 1. ® _wk is an arbitrary weighting factor for element ek. This factor accounts for differing missions by assigning the SGIA importance of elements relative to each other. The SG1A is very Larortant. for example, and might be assigned a weight of 5 when compared with MM which might have a weight of 0.5. ' ‘The RV response is similarly defined as a fuzzy set of response elements R[ex,pk,wk). The membership values for response elements, however, have a somewhat different meaning than those for target elements. Membership values, px, represent an analyst’s assessment as to the degree of presence of ekin the response. For declarative statements, k= 1 unless a viewer volunteers a specific or implied importance of ex to the overall target. A degree of interpretation is allowed for nondeclarative statements by letting px< 1. The response weights, wk, are identical to the target weights. ( ~~ We define accuracy as the percent of target material described correctly by a response. Likewise, we define reliability (of a viewer) as the percent of a response that is correct. The figure of merit is the product of the two; to obtain a high figure of merit, a viewer’s description of a target must be largely correct and contain few extraneous images. In 6 Approved For Release zodprosie : ClA-ROP96-00789R002200500001-2