Approved For Release 2003/09/10
: CIA-RDP96-00788R001 200230043-8
Findings
1.
RV research conducted to date
lacks the necessary scientific control
needed to demonstrate conclusively the existence
of the phenomenon.
2.
Some isolated examples of operational
"demonstrations" are impres-
sive and often subjectively spectacular, but lack of scientific
procedures precludes their consideration as scientific evidence of
the phenomenon.
3.
On balance,
all existing information suggests that the phenomenon
may possibly exist,
only because
a few of the operational results
cannot be explained by other means.
Recommendations
1.
Terminate,
as and when individually feasible,
all nonsystematic
but research-oriented efforts designed to replicate previous and
current nonsystematic R&D efforts;
those
to be terminated
in their
present forms include efforts at MICOM,
AMSAA,
and FTD.
2.
Establish,
at the national
level
(e.g.,
NSC),
a coordinated program
to include fundamental systematic research;
applied,
operations-
oriented R&D
to systematically quantify the phenomenon;
and limited
intelligence-related
"trials"
to provide feedback/feedforward to
other activities.
3.
Provide adequate guarantees
,
long-range support and stability,
and
all accessses
to management of this coordinated program;
assure
that all RV DoD-funded activities are through this program office;
staff program office with scientific managers knowledgeable,
competent,
and nationally recognized in the highly pertinent
technical and scientific areas
(e.g., behavioral research methodology,
experimental design and statistics,
intelligence,
physics,
etc.).
Approved For Release 2003/09/10
: CIA-RDP96-00788R001 200230043-8
Approved For Release 2003/09/10
: CIA-RDP96-00788R001 200230043-8
Rationale and Opinion
It appears accurate to say that all operational/applications
"examples" of RV lack the scientific control and reporting precision
necessary
for their inclusion in
a scientific data base.
Most,
but
not all
,
of these examples can be explained by hypothesizing means of
information reception other than paranormal
RV.
Thus,
one
is tempted
to discount the operations/applications examples as not providing
adequately controlled data collection and evaluation,
statistical
analyses,
target specifics,
and the
like.
Generally,
this assertion
is
true.
Moreover,
all such examples suffer from methodological
flaws
\
if they are evaluated from a scientific standpoint.
Research in this
area
is amateurish from a behavioral sciences viewpoint.
However,
some of the information from some of these examples
cannot plausibly be explained by non-RV processes.
Furthermore,
the
nature of the information contained in the transcripts which cannot be
explained by non-RV processes seems well beyond that which appears
logical or a result of
"leading" of the subject,
guessing,
or even
fraud.
It is my opinion that we should carefully weight and evaluate
these particular examples before we routinely discard them, with other
examples,
as having inadequate scientific and experimental control to
be considered part of a scientific data base.
("Throwing out the baby
with the bath water"
comes
to mind here.)
For reasons of classification,
these specific examples will not
be described in detail here.
Rather,
aspects of those examples which
appear
to provide the greatest anecdotal support for the existence of
RV with no other seemingly plausible explanation,
are listed below:
1.
Scale accuracy in PNUTS.
SG1A
The above are not offered
to support any conclusive claim of the
existence of
RV.
However,
they do include examples which appear impressive
when viewed against "explanations"
such as random or
a priori response
probabilities,
context guessing,
interviewer leading,
deliberate falsifi-
cation,
and other non-RV concepts.
To deny the likelihood of the
existence of RV due
to lack of adequate scientific data in the face of
these examples,
in my opinion,
is possibly impulsive and far too simplistic
a conclusion.
Granted that it is difficult
to conceptualize an R&D
program having as
its objective the proof of the existence of RV and its
quantification,
the alternative
"out" of disregarding these examples because
they are
"bad science" appears at least equally inappropriate.
Approved For Release 2003/09/10
: CIA-RDP96-00788R001 200230043-8
Approved For Release 2003/09/10
: CIA-RDP96-00788R001 200230043-8
Possible Program Structure
Continuation of
"applications/operations"
types of activity,
such
as that in Florida and Maryland,
should continue, but should have and
could benefit from some scientific discussion and guidance.
Simultaneously,
two avenues of activity could proceed
in
a related
parallel
fashion.
The first would be
a basic R&D program designed to
"prove"
or
"disprove"
the existence of RV.
(This
is an extremely diffi-
cult task,
requiring very careful methodologies.)
The second would be
an "advanced development"
task, which accepts
the existence
of
RV,
and
then attempts
to quantify its
limits,
accuracies,
resolutions,
etc.
These
latter two tasks can be criticized on the basis that
"we do
not know how
to do this scientifically."
That is undoubtedly true,
and
thus
a team of the best available people will be required.
Conversely,
if we agree that past research in this area has been "amateurish" and
poorly done,
then
it follows that we know
in part at least what not to
do ,
and that is the first step toward improvement.
I do not believe that
competent scientists,
from the proper discipline backgrounds,
cannot make
significant advances in researching RV
if_ the appropriate commitments are
made to them.
Estimated Costs
The following are strictly wild guesses
as
to manpower costs
for the
three tasks discussed.
Considerable travel,
computer,
facilities,
and
other costs should be added.
Task
1.
Research on Existence of RV
Professional Staff:
Supporting Staff:
Project Duration:
4-5 years
Task
2.
Quantification of RV Limits
Professional Staff:
Supporting Staff:
Project Duration:
6-8 years
Task
3.
Applications/Operations
Probably double the size of the current Maryland-based activity.
Estimated Yearly Cost,
Tasks
1 and
2 Only
:
$3 million.
Approved For Release 2003/09/10
: CIA-RDP96-00788R001 200230043-8