Final Reporf
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Phenomenological Research
and Analysis
Authors:
Edwin C. May, Ph.D., Wanda L. W. Luke, and Christine L. James
29 September 1994
ScienceApplications InternationalCorporation
An Employee-Owned Company
Presented to:
U. S. Government
Contract MDA908-93-C-0004
(Client Private)
Submitted by:
Science Applications International Corporation
Cognitive Sciences Laboratory
lattle,
Other SAIC Offici
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF TABLES
.
I.
II.
III.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
1.
Biophysical Measurements
2.
Data Patterns/Parameter Correlations
3.
Theoretical Issues
4.
Applied Research
5.
Research Methodology and Support
GLOSSARY
REFERENCES
APPENDIX A: Autonomic Detection of Remote Observation
APPENDIX B: Target and Sender Dependencies in AC Experiments
APPENDIX C: Managing the Target Pool Bandwidth
APPENDIX D: Shannon Entropy as an Intrinsic Target Property
.
.
APPENDIX E: Ganzfeld Experiment
SG1A
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Phenomena
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lological Research and Analysis: Final Report
LIST OF FIGURES
1.
Stimulus Timing
2.
Typical ERD from Direct Stimuli .........
3.
Cluster Diagram
4.
Cross-Section of the Detector (Not to Scale)
5.
Test Exposure: 2,250 Volts for 28 Hours
.
.
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II. TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
In this section we provide a technical overview of the activity which was conducted under contract num
ber MDA -004. The technical details of the experiments can be found in the Appendices.
1 . Biophysical Measurements
These tasks were to search for possible physiological correlates to anomalous cognition (AC) function-
ing. If such correlations could be found, they would directly lead to improved application and laborato-
ry results.
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1.1 Remote Observation Experiment
A series of experiments has been conducted in the U.S. in which it is claimed that a receiver’s electrical
properties of the skin (i.e., electrodermal response) can be influenced by a remote observer. This is a
laboratory example of a frequently reported anecdote: after entering a crowded room, you “sense” that
you are being stared at and discover that you are correct*
A complete write-up of our experiment, which includes the history, methodology, and results can be
found in Appendix A; however, we summarize the findings here.
TWo experiments were conducted to measure the extent to which people are able to unconsciously de-
tect another person staring at them from a distance. A close-circuit television set-up was employed in
which a video camera was focused on the experimental volunteer (Observee) while a person in another
room (Observer) concentrated on the image of the distant person as displayed on a color monitor; this
procedure was used to preclude any conventional sensory contact between the two people. During the
experimental session, the Observers galvanic skin responses were monitored. An automated and com-
puterized system was programmed to record and average the physiological responses of the Observee
during 32 30-second monitoring periods. A random sequence was used to schedule 16 periods of re-
mote observation and 16 control periods when no observation efforts were attempted. A within-sub-
jects evaluation was made for each experimental session with a comparison between the mean amount
of autonomic nervous system activity during the experimental and control conditions. Twenty four ses-
* References may be found at the end of the document,
t Please see Section in on page 27 for a definition of terms.
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sions were conducted in each of two experiments. As predicted, both experiments yielded significantly
more autonomic activity during the remote observation periods as compared to control periods (Ex-
periment 1: 1=1.878, df = 23,p< 0.036-, Experiment 2: f=2652, df = 23,p< 0.014). As pre-planned,
the two experiments were combined to increase the statistical power, yielding a significant t-score of
2.652 (df =47, p< 0.005).
There are two competing anomalous mental phenomena descriptions for these results. Given that this
experiment represents successful replication of a number of such experiments, we do not include the
possibility that these results are a rare or chance statistical deviation. The question we pose for future
experiments is: Is this effect causal
(i.e., the Observer forces the skin parameters to be different than
they would otherwise be) or informational (i.e., the Observee is AC-sensitive to know when he/she is
been stared at and responds accordingly)? The methodology we used in our experiment was primarily
designed to replicate both US and FSU similar experiments rather than to answer this particular ques-
tion. Although most of our analyses of so-called anomalous perturbation (AP) experiments demon-
strate informational mechanisms, we have recently analyzed a bio-AP experiment that statistically fa-
vored the causal explanation. Determining the mechanism is very important because it will dictate the
potential applications for this type of phenomenon.
1.2 Central Nervous System Response to AC Signals
The objective of this effort was to test the hypothesis that physiological responses to AC stimuli re-
semble those which occur in response to identical direct visual stimuli.
1.2.1
Background
As part of the research tasking for FY 1993, we had been asked to conduct an investigation of the rela-
tionship between the central and/or the peripheral nervous system and AC.
In this section, we review
the pertinent literature and provide a justification for the effort.
1.2.1.1 Prior Research
We only consider AC experiments that use complex material for targets. While there have been sub-
stantial numbers of experiments in which symbols have been used as targets (Honorton, 1975; Honor-
ton and Ferarri, 1989), we will not include that data as part of the behavioral evidence for AC.
In 1976, Puthoff and Ihrg (1976) published the results of a series of experiments in what was then called
remote viewing. In 51 trials, their results led to an overall effect size of 0.960±0.140 which corresponds
to a 6.8a effect.
In behavioral terms, Cohen (1988) would classify this effect as large.
As part of our FY 1991-1992 effort, we were asked to use magnetoencephalography (MEG) to investi-
gate how, or if, the central nervous system (CNS) responds to “visual” stimuli that are physically and
sensorially isolated from a receiver. The reasoning behind this request was that during an earlier inves-
tigation in FY 1988, we observed, what was suspected to be, instantaneous phase shifts of the dominant
alpha rhythm concomitant with such stimuli. That study itself was originally thought of as a conceptual
replication of even earlier work in which alphapower changes were putatively induced with remote visu-
al stimuli (Rebert and Timer, 1974; May, Targ, and Puthoff, 1977).
As we stated in our final report (May, Luke, and Lantz, 1992), the FY 1992 study did not replicate the
FY 1988 finding (May, Luke, Trask, and Frivold, 1990b). Because of our technical and methodological
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improvements,we concluded that the 1988 results were likely to be spurious. We can, however, specify a
number of possible arguments why the 1988 study failed to replicate:
• AC does not exist.
• AC exists, but the conditions were not conducive for quality AC functioning.
• AC exists, but the target system (i.e., 100 millisecond sinusoidal gratings in the lower left visual field
of the receiver) did not constitute an appropriate stimulus.
We address these issues in order.
/ The verification of the existence of AC is an epistemological problem. The definition of AC is a nega-
tive one; we are able to describe what AC is not, but there is no statement about what AC is other than
methodological. Colloquially, we might sayAC is a form of information transfer when, according to the
currently understood laws of physics, the retrieval of information. is impossible. Thus, we say AC exists
if a statistically valid anomaly is observed under the proper methodological conditions.
Jf]yQ
Since replication is better than distribution theory, it is important to define what replication means in a
2-o domain. Professor Utts, from the statistics department at the University of California at Davis, has
provided a good operational definition, which is based on standard power analysis (Utts, 1988). Since
1975, there have been four major articles published in the reviewed literature that analyze substantial
numbers of experiments that portend AC.
All but one use the modern methods of meta-analysis to
determine the final conclusion for each collection of studies.
It is important to realize that in all these
analyses, all the published data are included. In addition, the techniques of meta-analysis allow for re-
sponsible estimates of the number of studies that "failed” and were not published.
(1)
In "Error Some Place!” Honorton critically reviewed card-guessing experiments, which were con-
ducted between 1934 and 1939 (Honorton, 1975). The AC-targets in these studies were five geo-
metric symbols; circle, square, wavy lines, star, and cross.
In almost 800,000 individual card trials
that were obtained after the targets had been specified (i.e., real-time AC), the weighted effect size
was £ = 0.013dh0.001, which corresponds to an overall combined effect of 12.7o.
This analysis,
however, was completed before the techniques of meta-analysis were known.
Improvements,
which include the analysis of experiment quality, can be found in the next example.
(2) Using the tools of modern meta-analysis, Honorton reviewed the precognition (i.e., a target is ran-
domly generated after the trial had been obtained) card-guessing database (Honorton and Ferarri,
1989). This analysis included 309 separate studies reported by 62 investigators. Nearly two million
individual trials were contributed by more the 50,000 subjects. The combined effect size was e =
0.020±0.002, which corresponds to an overall combined effect of 11.4a
Ttoo important results
emerge from Honorton’s analysis.
First,
it is often stated by critics that the best results are from
studies with the least methodological controls.
To check this hypothesis, Honorton devised an
eight-point quality measure (e.g., automated recording of data, proper randomization techniques)
and scored each study with regard to these measures. There was no significant correlation between
study quality and study score.
Second, if researchers improved their experiments over time, one
would expect a significant correlation of study quality with date of publication. Honorton found r =
0.246, df = 307, p < 2xl0~ 7
. In brief, Honorton concludes that a statistical anomaly exists in this
data that cannot be explained by poor study quality or a large variety of other hypothesis.
(3)
In examining AC with complex visual targets, Bern and Honorton analyzed 11 separate studies in-
volving a total of 329 trials (Bern and Honorton, 1994). They report a combined effect size of e =
0.159±0.055 , which corresponds to 2.89o. We wish to call attention to the fact that this effect size is
approximately eight times larger than the effect size reported for studies where the targets are sym-
bols. Since effect sizes are relative measures above mean chance expectation, this result is one, of
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many, which suggest that the statistically simpler target system of five symbols does not produce as
much AC as do complex targets.
(4) Radin and Nelson (1989) provide, in Foundations ofPhysics, a meta-analysis of a different form of
AC. The targets were randomly changing binary bits whose random nature was usually derived ei-
ther from electronic noise or radioactive decay.
Similar to Honorton’s work, they assigned a
16-point quality rating to over 800 individual studies conducted by 68 investigators from 1959 to
1987. They compute an overall weighted effect size of approximately £ = (3.O±0.5)xlO~4
, which
corresponds to 6o. They also find no correlation between study quality and study score.
An independent analysis of these statistics can be found in Statistical Sciences, which is a journal that
invites and publishes contributions and substantial critical comments by recognized leaders in the field
of statistics (Utts, 1991). Although Utts focuses her attention on the meta-analyis of the Ganzfeld, her
analysis, discussion, and defense of the commentary are noteworthy.
These effects are small. Tb illustrate a point about replication, we will compute, using standard power
analysis, the probability that a new study will demonstrate significant (i.e., p < 0.05) evidence for AC. If
we assume that the actual AC-effect size is given by £ = 0.159 then the probability of observing a signifi-
cant outcome in 50 trials is only 30%. Although this is six times chance expectation of 5%, there remains
a 70% likelihood that this study would “fail” to replicate.
It is exactly this type of realization that is
responsible for a shift in the determination of replication from p-values to effect sizes.
It is clear from these analyses that there is incontrovertible evidence that a statistical, albeit small, in-
formation-transfer anomaly exists that cannot be accounted for by methodological issues or fraud.
Thus, we were strongly motivated to continue our investigations of the CNS in order to identify how the
brain responds to AC stimuli.
1.2. 1.2 Conditions for Quality AC Functioning
One of the problems associated with our earlier CNS investigations is that we did not obtain concom-
itant behavioral measures of AC. Many experiments and discussions about what constitutes an AC-
conducive state can be found in the parapsychology literature.
It is beyond the scope of this report to
provide an analysis of this research, and there remains substantial disagreement among the researchers
on this point.
In Ganzfeld studies, for example,
it is assumed that reducing somatisensoiy noise en-
hances AC, yet in our experiments we observe equivalent or larger effect sizes without the reduction.
Lacking reliable research results on this point, it has been our view that the “ideal” environment for AC
would not be much different than what might be needed to perform any high-level mental task.
For
example, the best environment for a person to read and understand a novel might also be sufficient for
producing AC. In most all of our AC experiments, receivers are seated in a quiet and comfortable room
with few external distractions. The atmosphere is cordial, yet business like. On the one hand, we would
like to have the receivers be attentive (i.e., we suspect that too relaxed or asleep is not helpful); yet on
the other hand, we do not want them to be distracted. Under these conditions, we routinely observe
large effect sizes for AC.
In our MEG investigations, receivers were required to recline, face down, on a wooden table in a dark,
technically complex room
for approximately 30 minuets. A large device
(i.e., the MEG and
its
associated liquid helium flask) was comfortably touching the back of their heads. In addition, they were
instructed to move as little as possible and relax as much as possible. Some receivers complained that
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APPENDIX D
Shannon Entropy as an Intrinsic Target Property:
Toward a Reductionist Model of Anomalous Cognition
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