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(U) TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT
ii
LIST OF TABLES
iv
LIST OF FIGURES
iv
I
INTRODUCTION (U)
II
METHOD OF APPROACH (U)
.
A.
(U) Fuzzy Set Formalism
.
B.
(U) Prototype Analysis System
C.
(U)
Partial Application of Analysis System to Existing Target Pool
D.
(U) General Conclusions
*
REFERENCES
APPENDIX A
... 14
APPENDIX B
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(U)
LIST OF TABLES
1.
(U) Numerical Listing of Targets
2.
(U) Technology Cluster
(U)
Principal Elements Contained in the Technology Template
(U)
LIST OF TABLES
l.
t
Cluster Diagram for
I
^ Targets
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I INTRODUCTION (U)
(U)
Since
1973, when the
investigations of the human information-accessing capability
called remote
viewing (RV)
first began
at SRI
International,
1 *
evaluating the
quality
of the
information obtained has been
a continuing
challenge.
In order
to develop
valid
evaluation
procedures, two basic questions must be addressed:
(1)
What constitutes the target?
(2)
What constitutes the response?
If the RV task
is research-oriented, the targets are known, and therefore can be
precisely defined.
In
-oriented tasks, however,
the targets are
generally unknown
and their descriptions are problematical.
In both task domains, RV responses tend to consist of
sketches
and
written
phrases.
A method
to
encode
unambiguously
this
type
of
“natural
language "
is one of the unsolved problems in computer science, and there has been
little progress
~
to date.
Thus, a complete definition of an RV response
is also problematical.
\ An
on-oriented RV task poses further problems.
High-quality RV does
not always provide useful
For example, the RV may provide additional support for
information that has been verified from other sources, but provide no new information.
In some
cases, however, an overall low-quality RV may provide key elements that positively influence an
analyst’s interpretation.
Another characteristic of current laboratory analysis techniques
is that they do
not provide an
a
priori assessment
of the RV
quality.
While
this
is
not
a problem
in
the
laboratory,
;
_
,
applications
require such
evaluation.
An RV
analyst cannot provide
ratings from
the RV alone;
rather,
the
analyst must provide
a
priori
probabilities that individual RV-response elements (or concepts) are present at the target site.
It
remains the responsibility of an
analyst to determine whether such data are ultimately
useful.
*
Analysis
of
laboratory RV
has been
a
major
part
of
the
ongoing
Cognitive
Sciences Program. 2 ' 7
For FY
1989, we
focused on the development
of a prototype
analysis
system that would provide the needed a priori assessments
for
tasking^"
U) References are
at the end of this report.
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II METHOD OF APPROACH
(U)
The analysis of remote viewing (RV) data in an
environment differs
considerably from laboratory analysis.
Most often, analysts have incomplete or no information
about the target site and are required to provide a priori assessments of data gathered from RV
sessions.
In
this section we outline
a prototype
analysis system for
> RV that uses
concepts from fuzzy set theory,
historical archival data, and “templates”
of typical;
targets.
In addition, we apply this prototype system to an existing target pool as an illustration of
the power of the technique.
A.
(U)
Fuzzy Set Formalism
A A more comPlete description of the
full fuzzy set formalism can be found in our
literature. 4 ' 7
For the purpose of this report, we have summarized that formalism in general terms
that are not specific to either laboratory experiments or
tasking.
1.
(U)
Construction of Target and Response Fuzzy Sets
(U) A formal definition of a
target and
its associated RV response
(i.e.,
the data
obtained from an RV session)
is necessary to any analysis system. To use the fuzzy set method, a
universal
set of elements
is constructed on which
target and response
descriptions
are based.
These elements should contain descriptive aspects of the target material and incorporate items
that typify responses from the intended viewers.
This universal
set should
also be extendible
(i.e., allow for additional items that may arise in the responses).
-
(U)
In
general,
the
task
of an RV
analyst
is
to
assign
a membership
value
(*t)
between 0 and
1 to each element in the universal set. The numerical value for each element in a
response
is assigned by the degree to which the analyst
is convinced that the given element
is
present in that response.
Membership values for target elements are assigned on the basis of the
degree to which the elements contribute to the target description.
|
|
In the laboratory, the targets are known, so that defining a universal set of
elements
is comparatively straightforward. 4 ' 7
In
<tfflic<chW|
tasks, however,
defining a
single
universal
set of elements that
is appropriate
for
all operations
is
difficult.
Because the usual
'task is so highly mission-dependent, defining a single universal set of elements that is
customized to that mission becomes easier.
r~
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