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Interim
Report- -Objective
E,
Task 2
December
1986
LOCATION OF TARGET MATERIAL
IN SPACE AND TIME
(U)
By:
NEVIN
D. LANTZ
EDWIN
C. MAY
Prepared
for:
PETER
J. McNELlS, DSW
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Interim
Covering
Report- -Objective
E,
Task 2
Perinri
October
1985
to 30 September
1986
December
1986
LOCATION OF TARGET MATERIAL
IN SPACE AND TIME
(U)
By:
NEVIN
D. LANTZ
EDWIN C. MAY
Prepared
for:
PETER
J. McNELIS, DSW
CONTRACTING OFFICER'S TECHNICAL REPRESENTATIVE
CONTRACT DAMD
17-85-C-5130
SRI
Project
1291
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WARNING NOTICE
restricted dissemination to those with verified access
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UNCLASSIFIED
ABSTRACT (U)
(U)
One reported psychoenergetic
skill, known to the general public as “dowsing,”
is
the
ability to locate lost or hidden items of interest.
In an effort to bring this putative
ability
that we
call “search” into the laboratory, we conducted a computer-assisted-search (CAS)
experiment.
Participants scanned a computer graphics display and attempted to locate a
hidden computer-generated target. We explored two conditions:
(1) the target was fixed in
space—space condition, and
(2) the target was randomly shifting locations each
millisecond—time condition.
Eight of 36 participants showed an above chance ability
(p <
0.027) to find computer-generated targets in our laboratory simulation of dowsing.
This
replicates and extends the results of work done in FY 1984, and provides a pool of
individuals for a formal study of search techniques.
it
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I INTRODUCTION (U)
(S)
A continuing requirement of the intelligence community
is
determining the location of tactical and strategic military targets of
interest,
whose positions are not known or are known only approximately.
Examples range from the location of
(1)
a
"bug"
in
a secure facility,
(2)
a
command post
in a tactical
situation,
or
(3)
a submarine
in a strategic
situation.
(S)
It has been claimed by the parapsychological community that
individuals can search for and locate water,
oil,
minerals,
objects,
individuals,
sites of archaeological significance,
and so forth.
If this
can be demonstrated
to be a genuine ability,
and
if
it can be applied to
targets
of military interest,
then we may have a potential match to the
above requirement
.
(S)
This ability can be contrasted to the related psychoenergetic
ability "remote viewing,"
in the following manner.
In remote viewing,
the
viewer
is given location information
(e.g.
,
coordinates,
a
"beacon"
agent,
or
a picture),
then asked to provide data on target content
(e.g.,
BW R&D
facility).
In
"search,"
the viewer
is given information on target content,
then asked to provide location data
(e.g.,
position on a map).
The two
functions thus compliment each other.
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(U)
The ability to locate targets
is most often referred to as “dowsing”
in the Western
literature, and “biophysical effect (BEE)"
in the Soviet/East Bloc literature.
In this report,*
we shall refer to such techniques simply as “search.”
Although much of the literature
is
anecdotal,^ attempts to quantify the
ability and to determine
its mechanisms have been
pursued. $
(S)
The goal of the present effort
is
to research the
literature,
then perform laboratory experimentation
to determine whether,
and
to what
degree,
such functioning
is
a viable candidate for application
to
intelligence-collection tasks.
This
includes determining
( 1 )
the best
methods and efficiencies of various search techniques,
and
(2)
the
appropriate statistical analyses
for
evaluating* results.
(U)
In attempting to determine
if this putative ability can be brought under laboratory
control, we have simulated
“field conditions” with a computer-assisted-search (CAS)
experiment.
(U)
Our CAS experiments generally contain the following basic elements:
(1) A finite matrix of possible target locations
(e.g., a 20 x 20 graphics
matrix grid) from which one
cell
is randomly selected by the computer
as the target.
(2)
An individual whose task
is to “scan” the graphics display area, and
indicate, by pressing a button, his/her choice as to the target location.
(3) A feedback mechanism that displays the response and actual target
location.
(4)
An a priori defined analysis procedure.
(U)
Using this general procedure, we conducted an experiment during FY 1984 in
which two conditions were tested simultaneously:^
•
Searching for a target that remains fixed in space for the duration of the
trial (space condition).
(U)
This report constitutes Objective E, Task 2:
Develop methodologies to locate target material in space
nrm/nr
1 5m r>
r
(U)
For the most comprehensive and authoritative survey of the claims for dowsing, see Christopher Bird
The Divining Hand, E.
P. Dutton, New York, New York (1979).
t
§
(U)
See, for example, papers published by Z. V. Harvalik, beginning 1970,
in The American Dowser
The Journal of the American Society of Dowsers (Harvalik is the ex-d'irector of the basic research
at the U.S. Army Engineering Laboratories, Fort Belvoir, Virginia)
(H)
References are listed at the end of this document.
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UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
•
Searching for a target that
is rapidly moving in space
(time condition)
.
Seven individuals, who were blind to the space/time condition, were asked to contribute 50
trials (25 space, 25 time).
Five of them produced independently significant results: three in
time only and two in space only.
The most interesting aspect of our earlier result
is that no
participant was successful at both space and time conditions.
(U)
During FY 1986, our effort was to replicate the previous findings and provide
additional information on possible personality correlations using the Personality Assessment
System (PAS).* Although locating computer-generated targets
is academically interesting,
it
may not assist in locating objects in the “real world.”
This premise
is of paramount interest
and will be addressed during FY 1987.
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II METHOD OF APPROACH (U)
A.
(U)
Selection of Subjects
(U) A pilot study was conducted to select participants for a formal test, and to refine
the protocol.
From the overall subject pool amassed for our FY 1986 experiments,
participants were selected on the basis of availability and interest.
This pool currently contains
both
‘novice” subjects (persons who have never participated in psychoenergetic experiments)
and “experienced” subjects (those who have).
B.
(U)
Procedure
(U) A Sun Microsystems work-station computer was used to conduct
all aspects of the
pilot experiment.
This computer system
is noted for
its high- resolution graphics display and
graphics input device.
(U)
The approach chosen here was a modification of a procedure originally developed
by Dr. Dean
I. Radin at Bell Laboratories for evaluating geometric-distance scores in a
perceptual task.®
In this approach, we begin by constructing the target area of interest in the
form of a square. A grid system
is then laid down over the square in the form of an n x n
matrix, to yield n* separate grid cells
(e.g., 400 for a 20 x 20 grid).
The computer randomly
selects one of the grid cells as the target for a particular trial.
The subject’s task
is to
locate” the target
cell.
After the subject responds, both the choice and the target are
displayed. A trial
is defined as a single response (button press) associated with a single target
location.
(U)
In our experiment, a bounded area representing the perimeter of a 20 x 20
cell
matrix was shown to the participant, who could “search”
for the target
by moving a graphics
pointing device (mouse) which controlled a cursor.
By pressing a button on the mouse the
participant could indicate his/her response.
Each participant was told
(1) the target could be
any place within the display boundary,
(2) move the cursor around the bounded area, and
(3)
when the moment “seemed right,” to register his/her choice by pressing the button on the
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IS m
(u)
mouse.
The computer was programmed to give immediate feedback to the participant
following each trial by automatically displaying the target cell as a
filled square and the
participant’s choice as a shaded square with a line connecting the two
(see Figure
1).
After
several seconds of the feedback display, the computer recycled to the next trial.
(U)
To test a participant in the space condition, the target location was fixed
throughout the
trial.
To test the time condition, the target location was changed once each
millisecond.
During the screening phase of the experiment, the computer selected one of the
conditions for each
trial by a balanced random protocol.
The participant and experimenter
were blind as to which condition was being presented on any given
trial.
Participant choices
versus computer selections were stored for future analysis.
Each participant was asked to
produce 10
trials per session.
In the pilot phase, 36 individuals completed 50
trials—25
trials
in each of the two conditions studied.
(U)
In summary, our experimental design includes:
•
Hypothesis—In the absence of known sensory information,
it
is possible
to determine a “hidden,” computer-derived target location to a
significant degree.
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(U)
•
Independent Variable—Target location
is on a 20 x 20 matrix grid.
•
Dependent Variable—Geometric distance
(d)
is between choice and
target:
d
= V(Y t - Y c )
2 + (Xt - Xc )
C.
(U)
Analysis
(U)
Using the grid as an approximation to a continuum, we can calculate exactly the a
priori chance distribution that any given search response would
lie at any given distance from
a particular target location.
From this, an evaluation can be made as to the quality of a single
response
(see Figure
1).
(U)
To estimate the probability of observing a distance
(d), the following calculations
are performed:
•
For the actual target position used in the
trial, a distribution consisting of
all possible (400)
distances
is constructed.
•
The probability (p-value)
of observing the distance
(d) or less
is given
by
r < d
E
P(dr )
p
<
,
400
where p(d r )
is the distance distribution.
For n total trials by a given subject, the p-values are combined by compiling an average (over
trials) p-value for each condition.
Then:
z =
\/
12n (0.5 - p)
The overall p-value
is computed from
z.
1.
(U)
Controls:
The particular random number generator algorithm used in this
experiment has been studied in detail and
is found to be adequate for multidimensional
applications. 4
(U)
The p-value calculated for each trial above
is an exact calculation.
The
distance distribution,
p(d), depends upon the single target point and the analysis assumes that
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(u)
the response
is random and that
all possible responses are equally likely.
This assumption
is
not valid; humans exhibit natural response “biases.”
For example, individuals tend to avoid
the edges.
To correct for this, the analysis described above
is conducted reversing the
meaning of the target and response pairs
(i.e., the target
is analyzed as though
it were the
response, and vice versa).
This reversal
satisfies the two criteria assumed in p(d), namely, the
“response” can be at any location with equal probability, and p(d) now depends upon the
single “target”
point.
2.
(U)
Significance Criteria:
To declare that a given individual has produced a
significant series of 25
trials, the overall p-value must be
less than or equal to 0.05.
To
declare the pilot series to be significant,
at least eight participants must demonstrate
independently significant results.
UNCLASSIFIED
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III
RESULTS (U)
(S)
Table
1 shows
the p-values for each participant
in each
condition.
Two
individuals achieved significant p-values
in the space
condition and six persons showed significant p-values
in the time
condition.
Table
1 (U)
(U)
p-VALUES FOR PARTICIPANTS IN SEARCH EXPERIMENTS
Subject I.D.
Space
Time
105
0.84078
0.16176
177
0.44148
0.13012
111
0.98868+
0.96894+
274
0.96954+
0.74088
144
0.63678
0.67126
099
0.95199+
0.21685
933
0.70792
0.14378
728
0.26703
0.11501
537
0.34966
0.19182
161
0.44627
0.31385
258
0.43465
0.96682+
594
0.54688
0.41565
677
0.76812
0.49793
653
0.23560
0.81473
636
0.85025
0.36908
570
0.67064
0.26024
393
0.44284
0.49724
255
0.97783+
0.96208+
425
0.74256
0.98615+
989
0.56330
0.80866
498
0.23507
0.84781
790
0.70135
0.63873
642
0.27391
0.03106*
300
0.13345
0.00010*
463
0.16690
0.01473*
428
0.34136
0.03143*
057
0.63092
0.03778*
004
0.99536+
0.04630*
531
0.25078
0.91276
432
0.01245*
0.29625
837
0.04117*
0.69349
003
0.10618
0.19182
580
0.08974
0.53519
763
0.18481
0.26932
038
0.18619
0.35158
164
0.97838+
0.61381
SECRET
*
Significant at < 0.05 in predicted direction
+ Significant at < 0.05 in direction of target avoidance
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(S)
Evidence supporting the tendency for significant subjects
to do
better on one task over the other
(as reported
in previous research)
can be
demonstrated by calculating
a z-score for the difference between the
z-scores associated with the average
(across
individuals)
p-values
of the
significant condition versus
the nonsignificant condition.
We find
z =
2.87,
which
is
significant
at
the 0.002
level.
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IV
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS (U)
(S)
The results are
in line with predictions;
eight persons showed
significant deviation from chance expectation
(probability equals 0.027),
In addition,
post hoc analysis
shows
a significant tendency to do better on
one condition than ON the other.
(U)
In FY 1987, the seven best individuals in each condition will participate in a formal
CAS study, in which the conditions will be separated and the number of trials increased.
^concT
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UNCLASSIFIED
REFERENCES (U)
1.
Puthoff, Harold E., and May, Edwin C., “Target Search Techniques (U),” Final Report,
SRI Project 6600, SRI International, Menlo Park, California (December 1984) SECRET
2.
May, Edwin C., and Saunders, David, “Personnel Identification and Selection (U),”
Final Report, SRI Project 6600, SRI International, Menlo Park, California (December
1984) SECRET.
3.
Radin, Dean, “Evaluating Geometric Distance Scores in a Perceptual Task,” Research in
Parapsychology, 1981, pp.
163-164, Scarecrow Press,
Inc., Metuchen, New Jersey
(1982) UNCLASSIFIED.
4.
Lewis, T. G., and Payne, W. H., “Generalized Feedback Shift Register Pseudorandom
Number Algorithm,” Journal of the Association for Computer Machinery, Vol. 20, No.
3, pp. 456-468
(July 1973) UNCLASSIFIED.
UNCLASSIFIED
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