Approved For Release:2003/04/18:: CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 15M ae i o no 10M oo ooo g , NM oo§F go OO oO O86 no _aoa Number Nog oo oO 9a O oO gonoo0 onob0 0 oo of mo oO ocobog oo. o 0 Oo Oaogo ooo o Hits Mo oF Q Oo 909 ono oO of0 oO Sho 0 oo Oo o tA o o o on rt i i fe MoU Mt 14 i li] ne roa} 40 Bt Bo 100 Trial Number Figure 2.2. Plot of number of hits/trial a oO Frequency M of M Hits M per Trial i Oo 0 Oo 6 oo oN a Hi 4 MOOG oO oo oo od ono og oo. a AM A 20 25. Figure 2.3 Frequency plot of Number of Hits Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R00020015001 1-4 22
Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 0.30M MM M -0. 0. M 0 O M go 0 0 oO oO 00 Q Q 01010) 0.29M QO. O00 QQ O0O-00 0 200000 0000  OQ0O0000 00 , M 6) QO0 2 92 00 D0 0 0 0000 Q Cumulative M 9) 0.0 Probability M Oo 0 of M Success O.28M9 0 0 MN : M Q KO 0 Me 0.27 K M M | M ww O0.26M 0 M 0.24N00 MoM MM M MM M M MM 0 20 40 60 80 100 Trial Number Figure 2.4 Cumulative Success Ratio of Subject (both machines used) Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R00020015001 1-4 23
—EE—E—E——————E==—=——_=——_--=~—réésé‘=‘=;=i=C lll lee ae Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 Ea Accumulative Probability Se wr 0.25 M M M M 0.31M M M M M 0.30M M M M M 0.29M M- M M M 0.28M0 M: M: O.27M | M M M 0.26M M M M M M M M M 0.24M 0 Q 0-0 Q Q) oq f : . aj OX J Pp olen \ ol \n 4 f ®, t 0 te) 0 ty by bo) OO : a6) P0000 OOM M M MoM OW M M iM M 10 20 30 40 © 50 Trial Number Figure 2.5 Accumulative Probability of Success on Machine 1 Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 24
Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R00020015001 1-4 -0.30M . | Q , } M , 7 2000 : [ i M | } 00000 pe 4 i M Q 9 oC 9 “00 0.29M QO 8 foe) pOG la 9) M O05 Of. | peng Nd 7 iM 0 00 | | ri . ; J 0.28MQ Oo  Q M: 3 9) Mi Q Mio 0. 27m 0.24M 60 M Vi; M. M M M M M M M M M : 0 10 20 ' 30 40 50 60 Trial Number Note: V - Points at which he switches machines yo Figure 2.6 Accumulative Probability of Success on Machine 2 Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 25
7 OAS Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R00020015001 1-4 The first plot (Figure 2.2) demonstrates the randomness of the number of hits while the second plot (Figure 2.3) demonstrates the frequency distribution takes on a "normal" appearance. The accumulative probability plots, at first glance,indicates that the subject was in a learning mode for the first five trials. A closer examination of the data indicates that. this can occur naturally as part of the statistical distribution. The first three number of hits points are 7, 5, and 6 considering the first 75 points as the population with probability of success = .2936 (the final probability) then the expected value is 22 (using binomial distribution) and the variance is 15.55 (S.D=3.9). As a normal deviation from the mean (i.e., using normal distribution approximation P(x<18)=.13. Although the observed learning can be rationalized as a natural statistical deviation it warranted further investigation. The plots of the accumulative probability of success for machine 1 and machine 2 are presented in Figure 2.5 and Figure 2.6. The plot for machine 1 (Figure 2.5) is a typical sinesodial decreasing amplitude convergent curve. The plot for_machine 2 however, is x very suspicious in terms of learning. The major peaks of the curve (at approximately trial 10, 23, 40 and 56) are increasing which implies his ' probability of success is continuing to increase instead of converging on Cn ae aera one point. Another interesting pointsis—that the points at which he switches onto machine 2 are 1, 9, and 36. Also of concern is the sharp upward turn during the last 8 samples. - The hits totals for this period, starting at sample 49 is 10, 10, 8 11, 6, ' 8, 7, and 11 for a total of 71 hits out of a possible 200 for a probability of success of .36. Once again using the binomial distribution and using the probability of success of .29 (the cumulative probability up to the 49th point) the expected mean is 58 and the standard deviation 6.42, Using the Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 26
Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R00020015001 1-4 Miscellaneous Numerous arrays of data have been examined for the purpose of obtaining some insight into the data. Some of the data is being printed herein so that the data can be examined more closely if desired. This first table is presented for use as a quick reference. Number Last of _ Machine Day ‘Trial Tracks Used 1 8 nr: 2 2 16 8 1 3 24 8 2 4 36 12 2 5 44 8 2 6 52 8 1 7 56 4 1 8 64 8 1 9 68 4 1 10 72, 4 1 WW 76. 4 1 12 80 4 1 13 84 4 2 14 88 4 2 15 100 12 2 Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 . 30
Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R00020015001 1-4 The following displays are presented below with little commentary. I. II. Il. nm" moo General trial summary (Figure 3.1). Each trial (25 choices) is ‘listed with the following information, A. Machine used (1 or 2) B. Total number of machine states in each color (i.e., 6 yellow, 6 green ....) for each trial. Total number of subject choices for each color for each trial. Total number of hits for each trial. Total number of passes for each trial. Breakdown of hits by color. Machine data for machine 1 and machine 2 separately (Figures 3.2, 3.3) Just by examining these displays it may be possible to glean ; £ meaningful information. For example, machine 1 was used for the S first 8 trials during which the first state of each trial was a yellow or red. If the first sample of each trial is most memorable, perhaps this is responsible for the subject's obvious preference of yellow and red (see Section 2 - Analysis of $2 Data Responses). Plots of the number of passes made. A. Number of passes vs. trial number (i.e., trial is 25 or more samples) (Figure 3.4) | _B. ‘Number of passes vs. sample number (Figure 3.5) 3] Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 t
Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 mach mach mach mach sub sub sub sub numb num hit hit hit hit tHe VODTTMMANOMEMMNOAN TT EMO MMM PANOR TAPS ONT A Ne te NRO MDO-NOONDCOCCHAK-NODOR KK OR KOK NOK KH OK OM KH NOOO KO OO OTK NOH KO MH NRK KH KOK OMOONH NOOK OK NOOND CHK NOME OCR NOK TMM T HEMT H HONK NO 0 POQODOCDODSCOGOGOO= DMODODONVTAOM reonr om wee ONL me — mOME~EEOTTOOMAMH-NDPrPOFT NEO me me EN a NR Ne ts pas yel grn blu red Pm MO DINO WAM ANON DOIN © DOM AAR AN ANN ODANNARNONABTANA pRooorsd 6 8 mNOCOONaGmO~-wO- HOAX AMM OMDOOAMODOH-HADOO TT AME HOAX ne OE OAM WIE MA WE EE AIA SEO EON HE MAM HALIM AAM ENON TOY TO TTOPOAMOCOCONSOTAL®P= OG © — OH DODAANAONONYYYCOTHOTO mere ris a — ee me —_—_ is ; WH met MOWABNOAOINNONH- DOAN Od= YNOVODNN-OoONOH -oonr yor 11 VTOO — AM ONO St TOME AOHAKODT KOMOoDDAR00— ANAAOGM ST —~ ~raomon — ee ee wee om OY ee ee ee — we some — — ee ee ee ene we ge Se ee JAINA A A eR REN AAA NA AAA AA AAA NOTMONDACH AM TNOMOAD= —N Os OK ANSMTNOF DAO-—N eee ee ee eee ALALALAL SN AMMMAMMMAM MY st + + trial macn yell gren blve red yel arn blu red hi = ed 0 ODT OME OITA MANNAADDYOeTTOSORSoNTe rests MAARODOOON . er -00787R000200150011 Sted by Trial Numb 1 APRIPYS. For Baleate POOH BL PARE 32
Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 mach mach mach mach sub stib sub sub numb num hit hit hit hit 3 0 | 9 0 AMM NOMMRAMOMANTEMMTHTONRK FTORKARMNANT RAMON TAR TEMMAONMAD 4 17 tt 0 TOUKOMOR---MNADMRROOMTAM NONE OMG-GOMONMNOM NADA “ nS Roe ttt ~ Sa A ADOAKODODOORT DDO DRAYTRMADROBAORDOWONOMN OR ON ODD0ODOD—-0 Or — ~OONA— A OV MR VDNNOCOABAVOOH HH VC OHV ~MOOMTOMODOONOAAROH ee ee eee eee ee ge oer ~— em on eee eee —_— om eee LIMO SAINT HK OTANNTOR ETS QONUMT HOO m ~DOO-—- MINE COMO OTT NOM — ee ee — oe —— ow 3 9 — —— wm ONT TON DON AON OADN DAD DOCS — NON = OTR OOROMAOE OT AWNDS e red yel grn pau red hits pas yel arn blu red w ¥ w 51 TNO INIA EP SEE PASE NR EMEA HH IMM MN TH KORN RK OR TLL INO OO nr OOOO -C ODOC OOM O-O0CO-OH- 90H ONR RHR H HH OOH OCD NN NNOCO-O- 00 ORT HORN HHH NMTOON OR COON RRR EMR MN RR RH ODAKBDNAOHTO DS COVO— MODNBODMYTNAASAT MAAR TORR ORR Cam. BOTH E NOTH aAxQeaTONTAN OM OMNDOMOwOMeoOyaoaymonwonesee ed ee ee oe Z : c : DINININT TAN TIN DOO — ANOTDORAON— TMADOTTOARRMMAROOMONADAAH bs ~— —_ —-— = ron a aOR s ONADO--OMOONMDOOR— —h = TAD AN DIONE IMM ATONE NON DO Fn ne I el a ee ed _ —— > ra © Om me ee Re ee ee AANA ALAA AI ALA AALAA NN THVNMNTNOKDAOKAMHNTNORDAO-AHMTMNOKDAO-AMYTMNOFDAOTHTANMNYOOR ORO - DODD ADOANDO OO 009 DO DOR SEN EEE ESE DVD VDDD DNDDDDARAARDARAAADO Approved For Release 2003/04/14 - dif RES¥84787R00020015001 4-4 33
Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96- 00787R000200150011-4 teri iizigni1ii saznee 3122 S1isie god Peel fein leci jeu Waec 21eg1es Hf SL ed ts SSOOOLSOLt Lidge: ne elils O3E11002 rin Se age On8 LLLLGSLeiotiotea SEEGLISLOOL Rice lec oi oni Li di1a301 OL os31 012602 finesioie P BSS 0Uabse ‘ elites L1ihiesisein 103112 Me Laslo0igees SeLlLStiases: fLiilsiliisnie 13 SOLS SS LS SSL Beee Ni see i iti sense Sees os se ReUNSSSeOLSiSiliileiicenoois ante tbe ts teese NeZE60 eleni- eel) NSLS SOSSEEOSL Leos ses Ose21320 GLSOSOLOS0e11 Th1idss (OSLO 0S SESE S03 Wesli lige Ligesili feltesei1oregtel . od Qh eS i Ceug esate oL oS 12 TeTTtre Monts SL RLSS NEEL OS LGLOSLSeiasse ly claalat eer ' 32 SHSOLT Heb Leds 123 MEO gHED ice S40 rth g or 12 TLLPLOS OSL gete1 sess amp tay oy ot MUL SOS SL OLES SL OSE OSSeEs Sie: 1032 43 SALS0LLS13 Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 Figure 3.2 Color states of machine 1 during the experiment (0O-yellow, 1 green. 2 blue. 3 red) pO APARNA A, TC ACEI REAR A etna ak NEE tnt
OOS/0AI18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 = NS cba Fate innssee nS senge12 oy i if ot fle file Soret [a ee Sold Pe oo DEADSESESNOLNL TON See] 103 clei: WBEO1ENS1 ONENE1 991 — ra 3112801 008 ‘TRONS SOS LSE AL esee eicizodlie SSLLEUSLOl ent baotanseoteson SEQSL233123 , MBLLe0e021323 NeiNse082nS E001 1e0 oS BS PIES1LS Mile booed 0 od iat qh 3a11902218 ts a pret fat fad oo ra me a fat vrs = ‘3 WS an 213 1188822110 Pal fl Oostd nS SLELSL301 213 PB OE21S 3023205 210212012 le eposse S011 te iievaies therere LIGELESEENTSSESSE SEL OLE: fel: WEOLSOLLOLSS3S1e1 sen, SES MENEEDE ONSITE) LEePnieet Latse eOLOt. SOS3SLESE OGLE 2 0 mac: 110 eliooiooniote Toeso faa « bee Ta" Li enea0s SEs 1) eWse lees L110 : an SOLS eS ; 11-4 - AneLRNES For ealeare see OP aschine 2 during the expersment (0 yellow, 1 green, 2 blue, 3 red)