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UNCLASSIFIED
(U) TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
I
INTRODUCTION
II
METHOD OF APPROACH
A.
Objectives
B.
Viewer Selection
C.
General Approach
D.
General Protocol
III
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
A.
Early Similar Experiments
B.
Exploratory and Formal Efforts—FY 1986
C.
FY 1987 Exploratory Experiments—Results and Discussion
D.
FY 1988 Experiments
IV
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
iii
iii
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A.
(U)
LIST OF TABLES
1.
RESULTS FOR FIRST HALF OF FY 1987
2.
PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR SECOND HALF OF FY 1987
3.
TARGET LIST FOR THE FORMAL EXPERIMENT
4.
RECORD SHEET FOR THE FORMAL EXPERIMENT
(U)
LIST OF FIGURES
1.
SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION OF SUPRALIMINAL AND SUBLIMINAL
PROCESSING
...
2.
SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION OF ANALYTICAL OVERLAY
3.
EXCESS HTTING DURING EXPLORATORY TRIALS
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If the Pr°blems of forced-choice remote viewing (i.e., remote viewing of a limited
and known set of target alternatives) could be solved, a number of potential applications come to
mind.
First and
foremost,
standard redundancy
coding techniques
could be employed
to
improve
the
hit
rate
further.
This
is
not
a new
idea.
In
1964,
Ryzl
demonstrated
the
psychoenergetic transmission of 50 binary bits without a single error,* and in 1985 SRI published
a white paper describing a program to determine optimum coding parameters. t
In that report,
SRI showed that
if psychoenergetic functioning were stable over time,
it would be possible to
trade number of trials
for
reliability.
Using techniques similar to the ones described
in SRI’s
white paper,
it
is possible
to increase the
single-bit
hit
rate
for
a
binary experiment from
a
nominal 60% to over 99%.
With such a low initial
hit rate, the efficiency
(i.e., one divided by
the number of trials required to obtain the desired certainty)
is of the order of 0.002 or lower.
Such a low efficiency might be problematical in anjT
jenvironment.
~
One solution to this problem
is to increase the single-bit
hit rate.
To do
this,
however,
requires
that
longstanding
problems
with
the
forced-choice
psychoenergetic
experiments
be
solved.
As
part
of
the P
“Enhanced
Human
Performance
Investigation,”
(Contract
DAMD17-85-C-5130),
SRI
initiated
a
pilot
investigation
of
forced-choice remote viewing to address the problem of low efficiency.
Since a binary search
strategy
is one of the most likely applications if an increased single-bit hit rate could be realized,
the effort to increase the rate was included as part of the FY 1986 Objective E, Task
2, Search.
In FY 1987 and FY 1988,
this effort was under Objective F, Task
10, and Objective E, Task 4,
respectively.
(U)
This report summarizes the work performed from FY 1986 through FY 19884
t
t
(U) Ryzl, M., "A Model of Parapsychological Communication,’
Vol.
30, No.
1, pp.
18-30, (March 1966) UNCLASSIFIED.
Journal of Parapsychology,
(U) Humphrey, B.
S.,
“Psi Communications Experiments (U),” White Paner
9RT Tmprm.
tional, Menlo Park,
California, (November
1985)’
|
’
(U) This report constitutes the deliverable for Objective b. Task
4, FY
1988.
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II METHOD OF APPROACH (U)
A.
(U)
Objectives
(U) The primary long-term objective of this effort is to improve the single-bit hit rate in
binary
psychoenergetic
experiments
significantly
beyond
baseline
or
fiducial
values.
One
secondary and one tertiary objective are of interest as well.
•
Secondary—To track the various internal mental techniques used, in order to develop
hypotheses for later testing.
•
Ternary
To determine
if the binary remote viewing techniques can be expanded to
choices greater than two
(i.e.,
for between 3 and 6 possible targets).
(U) The specified objective for FY 1988 was set forth under Objective E, Task 4 of the
SOW for that year, “Determine the source of 'mental noise’ in binary psychoenergetic tasks.”
B.
(U) Viewer Selection
f
In
discussions,
one
of SRI’s
longstanding remote
viewers V(002),
reported
a
desire to renew his/her interest in this area and to address the general problem of single-bit hit
rate
enhancement.
Since
V002
had
demonstrated
a
willingness
to
address
difficult
psychoenergetic research problems in the past, SRI decided that he/she would be an appropriate
candidate
for this effort.
C.
(U)
General Approach
(U) A number
of problems
arise
in studying internal mental
processes.
It
is
not
yet
possible to determine the neurological sources of such processes, so we must rely upon subjective
techniques in order to begin to understand them.
Progress has been made in understanding one
area of subjective experience:
internal mental imagery.
Kosslyn describes successful techniques
involving relative internal versus relative external imagery measures to begin to understand this
robust mental
process.*
However,
even
those
techniques cannot
yet be
applied
to remote
viewing research, because much of the subjective impressions are reported to precede imagery.
(U) Kosslyn, S. M., Ghosts in the Mind’s Machine— Creating and Using Images in the Brain,
W. W. Norton & Company, New York and London (1983) UNCLASSIFIED.
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(U) To meet the specific objective for FY 1988, SRI adopted a wait-and-see approach.
This differs from the usual procedure of hypothesis formulation, test, and reformulation.
Rather
than asking V002
in the beginning to speculate upon a given hypothesis that might describe
his/her own internal processes, we requested that he/she describe recognizable changes whenever
they were occurring in a current strategy.
In addition, V002 was asked to keep notes on current
strategy at hand.
Noting those change points on the accumulated data might yield information
about the efficacy of the changes.
It was hoped that changes of strategy might be easier to
recognize than the steady state.
(U) One aspect of this approach is to lessen the need for a baseline, because inherent in
the Procedure
is
a
differential measure
(i.e., choose any
fiducial point and determine
if
a
meaningful statistical change has occurred since then).
D.
(U)
General Protocol
(U) The general binary protocol
Is as follows:
During the course of the investigation,
V002 remained in New York and all target material and experimental records remained at SKI in
Menlo Park.
All communication with V002 was b, telephone.
All single-trial protocols have die
following common elements:
*
by V002 (u- whlch palr tor blnary or
•
The internal strategy to be used was noted.
• a1gSm."'
aS SeleCKd fr0m
*he ab0VC
S“ by a comPuter-based random
•
No
verbal communication was allowed
after a
target had been
selected
but the
research assistant struck a bell to indicate that the viewing could begin immediately.
•
V002 responded verbally, and the result was entered in a data log.
•
Immediate feedback was provided.
(U) There were variations on this basic theme depending upon the number of targets in a
single trial.
In the training phase, the research assistant had control of the target material and
scoring.
However, potential cuing could exist, because the assistant was knowledgeable about the
target material.
Since there was no obvious evidence to support a cuing hypothesis, SRI allowed
the
assistant to know the target material in this phase
in order to expedite training, and any
results from this portion of the
effort were considered as preliminary and used
in hypothesis
formulation.
(U)
All formal results,however, had to be collected under flawless conditions.
For any
formal tests, an experiment coordinator determined the target material and signaled the assistant
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(u)
.
via a computer link, that a target had been chosen.
In this way,
all potential inadvertent cuing
was eliminated.
During the formal tests, the experiment was under the complete control of the
experiment coordinator, and the quantitative result was computed as a hit rate, p—value, and
effect size regardless of any different internal strategies that may have been used. To determine
whether improvement had occurred, significant changes in effect size had to be observed either
from a baseline or from a fiducial point
(e.g., the formal study in FY 1986).
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III
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
(U)
(U) Throughout
this section p-values have been computed
for various experiments
in
exploratory phases.
Since the number of trials was not declared in advance in these cases, the
results for the exploratory work are to be interpreted only as indicators rather than as estimates
o
the probability
that, upon repeating the experiment,
the
data would be
as deviant
as the
original set
(i.e. Type I error)
.
In the formal tests described below, the total number of trials was
declared in advance, and, thus the quoted statistics are measures of Type
I error.
A.
(U)
Early Similar Experiments
!
| Viewer 002
has been
involved
in
psychoenergetic
experiments
since
the mid
1960s.
The
earliest record SRI
has
for V002
in any forced-choice experiments were those
conducted for a d.fferent sponsor during FY 1976.*
While a number of different experiments
were tried during an exploratory period, none produced significant results.
Effect sizes are not
available from that period.
However, data from a formal, automated one-in-four forced-choice
experiment are available. V002 produced 167 hits in 500 trials for a hit rate of 33.4% (p < 1.59
X
10' 3
) and an effect size of 0.19.
In
later
forced-choice
experiments
involving
binary
and
one-in-ten
target
systems, V002’s results did not produce significant deviations from mean chance expectation.!
Because V002
has been involved in this type of research for such an extended period of time,
these data possess historical value and interest, and can serve as a long-term baseline.
However’
because of the general approach described above,
it is more appropriate to use newer data as a
fiducial point for the differential measures.
B.
(U)
Exploratory and Formal Efforts—FY 1986
1.
(U)
Results
I
.
During FY 1986. and using a protocol similar to the one described above,
V002 contributed 479
binary
trials
as
part
of an
exploration phase-exploratory because of a
(U) Puthoff, H. E., and Targ, R.,
Advanced Threat Technique Assessment
fU')
" Interim
fsTeSr
53 ° 9
’
^
f
,F
uihof
[’ H - E " ^
r8.
R-. and May,
E.
C.. “Advanced Threat Technique Assessment
53 ° 9 ’
Stanford
Research
Institute, Menlo
Park,
California,
3£3
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(S/NF)
possible sensory leakage path.
Of these, 276 were hits for a hit rate of 57.6% (p < 5.01 x
10'4
)
and an effect size of
0.15.
In a one-in-three target system, V002 contributed 142 trials with a
hit rate of 47.9% (p < 2.30 X
10' 4
) and an effect size of 0.30.
In a one-in-four target system,
trials were conducted with a
hit rate of 29.3%
(p ^ 0.27) and an effect size of 0.02.
.
Under
formaI
conditions
(described
in
Section
II,
D.3.)
between
September and
13 October,
1986, V002 contributed 50 binary
trials.
The hit rate was 64%,
p :< 0.033, and the effect size was 0.26
(corrected for continuity).
2.
(U)
Discussion
Keeping in mind that during FY 1986 this was part of a larger search effort
and
extremely
preliminary,
the
results looked
quite
encouraging.
Even on
those
few
trials
(one-in-four target system) where the results failed to meet the 0.05 significance level, the effect
size was typical of those seen during the historic Rhine investigations. The remaining exploratory
trials produced effect sizes an order of magnitude larger.
\
This exploratory effect size was confirmed by the formal series.
The effect
size, 0.26,
is somewhat larger than that in the exploratory phase, but not significantly so.
Two
main conclusions can be drawn from these
results:
(1)
Because there was chance hitting, there was no evidence for subliminal
cuing during the
exploratory phase;
therefore,
its protocol should be
kept
intact.
(2)
The formal result, which cannot be considered as a formal baseline
(i.e.,
a
large number of pilot
trials before the formal
series), can, however,
serve as a
fiducial point for comparison with later efforts.
C.
(U) FY 1987 Exploratory Experiments—Results and Discussion
(U) Encouraged by the FY 1986 effort, and in accordance with the FY 1987 SOW, SRI
initiated
a second
exploratory phase
of forced-choice experiments
with V002.
Rather than
conducting
a
simple
forced-choice paradigm
as
in FY
1986,
SRI
designed
this
effort
was
designed to be more sensitive to the subjective internal states of the viewer.
(U)
All
trials for the year were binary, and two principal subjective internal states were
investigated.
The
first of these was to determine
if the viewer could “tell"
(sense) in advance of
feedback when he/she was
in contact with the remote
target.
The second
internal
state was
related to the overall subjective
feeling of the viewer.
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1.
(U)
Exploratory Series
— The
1668
trials
collected
in FY
1987 can be
divided
into two
separate
segments-the
first
half reported
in
the Mid-Year Technical
Report,*
and
the second
half
reported in the Final Technical Report. f
This division
is a natural one,
in that V002 used two
different internal strategies.
During the
first half of FY
1987, V002
felt he/she
could sense being
in
psychoenergetic contact with the
target material.
To
test
this concept, V002 was required
to
register, in advance of each trial, whether he/she was in psi contact, definitely not in psi contact,
or not sure. The hypothesis under consideration in this protocol was that V002 would be able to
sense
contact
with
the
remote
target
and would
score
significantly
positive
in
the
contact
condition, score significantly negatively in the no-contact condition, and score at chance in the
uncertain condition.
Table
1 shows the results of 327
trials collected under this protocol.
Table
(U) RESULTS FOR FIRST HALF OF FY 1987
Condition
Trials
Hits
p-value
Effect
Size
Fractional
Hit Rate
Contact
147
8.40 X
10- 3
0.20
0.60
No Contact
9.55 X
10' 1
-0.22
0.39
Uncertain
121
1.52 X
IQ'
0.09
0.55
— Although we
must
acknowledge
that
there
was
a
remote
possibility
of
inadvertent cuing,
these
results suggest
that V002 was able
to sense
contact with
the remote
target.
In a formal test of this hypothesis,
it would be stated a priori that the
trials during the
no-contact
condition
would
be
automatically
inverted
in
the
analysis
(i.e.,
V002’s
remote
viewing would be used to reject one of the targets).
It
is important to note that the amounts of
psychoenergetic functioning required to sense contact are similar to those required to sense no
contact with the target.
Since the. effect sizes a under these two conditions are so similar
(i.e.,
the
minus
sign
for
the
no-contact condition
reflects
the
fact
that V002 scored below mean
(U) May, E. C., “Enhanced Human Performance Investigation (U),” Mid-Year Technical
Report,
Project 1291, SRI International, Menlo Park, California (June
1987)
t
(U) May,
E.
C., “Enhanced Human Performance Investigation (U),“
Final Technical Ke-
port,
Project 1291, SRI International, Menlo Park, California (December 1987)1
*
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