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Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4 Paranormal Communication “Error Some Place!” by Charles Honorton Review of the ESP controversy traces debate from statistical and methodological issues to the a priori critique and the paradigm of “normal science.” Asked his opinion of ESP, a skeptical psychologist once retorted, “Error Some Place!” I believe he was right, but for the wrong reasons. Western science has always been ambivalent toward the mental side of reality, and it is perhaps not surprising that the occurrence of “‘psychic’” phenomena is one of the most controversial topics in the history of science. The first serious effort toward scientific examination of psi claims was undertaken by the Society for Psychical Research (SPR), founded in London in 1882 for the purpose of “making an organized and systematic attempt CPYRGHT to investigate the large group of phenomena designated by such terms as mesmeric, psychical, and spiritualistic.” The SPR leadership included many distinguished scholars of the period, and similar organizations quickly spread to other countries, including the American Society for Psychical Re- search, founded in New York in 1885 under the aegis of William James, who himself took an active role in early investigations of mediumistic communications. These turn-of-the-century investigators focused much of their attention on authenticating individual cases of spontaneous experiences suggestive of psi communication. While a great deal of provocative material was care- fully examined and reported (e.g., 18), the limitations inherent in the case study approach prohibited definitive conclusions. However thoroughly au- thenticated, spontaneous cases cannot provide adequate assessment of such potential sources of contamination as chance coincidence, unconscious in- ference and sensory leakage, retroactive falsification, or deliberate fraud. Charles Honorton is director of research in the Division of Parapsychology and Psychophysics, Department of Psychiatry, Maimonides Medical Center, Brooklyn, N.Y.
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4 CPYRGHT Journal of Communication, Winter 1975 Early experimental approaches primarily involved) the “telepathic” repro- duction of drawings at a distance (62). While often striking correspondences were obtained, the experimental conditions did not usually provide for random selection of target (stimulus) material, and were not always totally adequate with respect to the possibility of sensory leakage, intentional or otherwise. Neither the spontaneous case studies nor the early experimental efforts made much impact upon the scientific community, though they drew critical comment from prominent period scientists, “Neither the testimony of all the Fellows of the Royal Society, nor even the evidence of my own senses,” proclaimed Helmholtz, “would lead me to believe in the transmission of thought from one person to another independently of the recognized chan- nels of sense.” Thomas Huxley declined an invitation to participate in some of the early SPR investigations, saying he wauld sooner listen to the idle gossip of old women. The rudiments of an experimental methodology for testing psi were suggested three centuries ago by Francis Bacon. In Sylva Sylvarum, a work published posthumously, Bacon discussed “experiments in consort, monitory, touching transmission of spirits and forces of imagination.” He suggested that “the metions of shuffling cards, or casting of dice” could be used to test the “binding of thoughts. . The experiment of binding of thoughts should be diversified and tried to the full; and you are to note whether it hit for the most part though not always” (2). The application of probability theory to the assessment of deviations from theoretically expected chance outcomes was [introduced to psychical research in 1884 by the French Nobel laureate, Charles Richet, in experi- ments involving card-guessing. The popularity of jcard-guessing as an ex- perimental methodology was greatly influenced by the work of J. B. Rhine and his associates at Duke University in the early ea Rhine (50) devised a standard set of procedures around a simplified card deck containing randomized sequences of five geometric forms (circle, cross, wavy lines, square, ang Grcl) These “ESP cards” were prepared in packs of 25, and aN Saute ab the pack was associated with a constant binomial prob- ability of 1/5, since subjects were not given trial- -by-trial feedback. Provid- ing the experimental conditions were adequate to eliminate illicit sensory cubes, recording errors, and rational inference, statistically significant de- partures from binomial chance expectation were interpreted as indicating extrasensory communication. Initially, “telepathy” tests consisted of having|a subject in one room attempt to identify the order of the cards as they were observed by an “agent” in another room. In “clairvoyance” tests, the subject attempted to “guess” the order of the cards directly, as they lay concealed in an opaque 104 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4 CPYRGHT fournal of Communication, Winter 1975 106 scores were in all cases nonsignificant, with a mean scoring rate of 5.04 (48). Several critics questioned the applicability of the binomial distribution as a basis for assessing the statistical significance of ESP card-guessing data. Willoughby (78) proposed the use of an empirical control series, but later withdrew the suggestion after comparing the two methods (79). Alternative methods of deriving the probable error and recommendations for using the empirical standard deviation were also proposed and later withdrawn (21, 22). Concern over this issue diminished and was generally abandoned following the publication of a large chance control series involving half a million trials and demonstrating close approximation to the binomial model (12). Another question arose about whether the binomial model provides sufficient approximation to the normal distribution to allow use of normal probability integral tables for determination of significance levels (17). Stuart and Greenwood (78) showed that when the normal distribution is used as an approximation to the binomial model, discrépancies are im- portant only with cases of borderline significance and few trials. The use of the binomial critical ratio (z) to evaluate the significance of the ESP card-guessing deviations was generally approved by professional statisticians (6, 20). Fisher (10), however, commented that high levels of statistical significance should not be accepted as substitutes for independent replication. In another vein, Huntington (20) asked, “If mathematics has successfully disposed of the hypothesis of chance, what has psychology to say about the hypothesis of ESP?” The most frequently expressed methodological , concern was the possibility of some form of “sensory leakage,” giving the ESP subject enough information about the targets , to account for significant, extrachance results. As early as 1895, two Danish psychologists, Hansen and Lehmann (16), reported that with the aid of parabolic reflectors subjects could detect digits and other material silently concentrated upon by an agent. In these experiments, the subject and agent sat with their heads close to the foci of two concave mirrors, While the agent concentrated on the number, he made a special effort to keep his lips closed. Under these conditions, the subjects were frequently successful in identifying the number. These results were interpreted by Hansen and Lehmann as supporting the hypothesis of “involuntary whispering.” The utilization of subtle sensory cues was demonstrated in a careful investigation by S. G. Soal of a stage “telepathist” (66). There were also reports, such as the case of “Ilga K.,” a mentally retarded Latvian child who could read any text, even in a foreign language, when someone stood behind her, reading “silently.” Experiments with dictaphone recordings revealed that “Iga” was responding to very slight auditory cues (3). Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4 CPYRGHT Paranormal Communication / “Error Some Plack!” container or in another room, without an agent. “Precognition” tests, introduced somewhat later (59), required the subject to make anticipatory guesses of the card order before the pack was shuffled or otherwise random- Rhine introduced the term “ESP” in his first major report on the Duke University work in 1934 (50). He reported a total of 85,724 card-gucssing trials, carried out with a wide variety of subjects and under a wide range of test conditions. The results as a whole were astronomically significant, though informal exploratory trials were indiscriminately pgoled with those carried out under more carefully controlled conditions. The best-controlled work during this period was the Pearce-Pratt distance series) of clairvoyance tests (58), in which the subject, Pearce, located in one building, attempted to identify the order of the cards as they. were handled, but! not viewed, by Pratt, the experimenter, located in another building. The level of accuracy obtained in this series of 1,850 trials was associated with a probability of 10-2, As a stimulant to experimental research, Rhine's work had unprece- dented influence. For the first time a common methodology was adopted and employed on a large scale by a number of independent and widely separated investigators. For the first time, also, the scientific community was confronted with a body of data, collected through conventional meth- ods, which it could no longer ignore—nor too hastily accept. The wide- scale adoption of the card-guessing methodology was accompanied by a plethora of critical articles, challenging almost every aspect; of the evalua- tive techniques and the experimental conditions. During the period be- tween 1934 and 1940, approximately 60 critical articles by 40 authors ap- peared, primarily in the psychological literature. While card-guessing is no longer the primary methodology in experimental parapsychology, the questions which arose over its use are of equal relevancd to the more sophisticated approaches used today. . The first major issue concerned the validity of the assumption that the probability of success in the’ card-guessing experiments was actually 1/5. If chance expectation is other than 1/5, the significance of the observed deviations would obviously be in doubt. This issue was quickly resolved by mathematical proof and through empirical “cross-check$,” a form of control series in which responses (guesses) were deliberately compared with target orders for which they were not intended (¢.g., responses on run n, matched with the target sequence for run n.). Empirical cross-checks were reported for 24 separate experimental series involving a total of 12,228 runs (305,700 individual trials). While the actual experimental run scores (e.g., guesses on run m, compared to targets for run n,) wete highly sig- nificant and yielded a mean scoring rate of 7.23/25, the control cross-check 105 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4 CPYRGHT OS Paranormal Communication / “Error Some Plo It is clear that at least some of the early exploratory series reported in Rhine's monograph were open to criticism for inadequate controls against sensory cues. While Rhine did not base major conclusions on such poorly controlled data, inclusion of them in his monograph provided a ready target for critical reviewers and sidetracked discussion away from the better con- trolled work, such as the Pearce-Pratt seriés, which was not susceptible to explanation by sensory cues. Co Defects in an early commercial printing of ESP cards were reported by several investigators (18, 25). It was found that the cards were warped and could under certain conditions be identified from the back. This discovery circulated widely for a time as an explanation of all successful (i.e., statis- tically significant) experimental series. The parapsychologists retorted that defective cards had not been employed in any of the experiments reported in the literature and that, in any case, they could not account for results from studies involving adequate screening with such devices as opaque envelopes, screens, distance, or work involving the precognition paradigm in which the target sequences were not generated until after the subject had made his responses (53, 54, 72). By 1940 nearly one million experimental trials had been reported under conditions which precluded sensory leakage. These included five studies in which the target cards were enclosed in opaque sealed envelopes (41, 45, 46, 54, 59), 16 studies employing opaque screens (7, 8, 11, 19, 38, 34, 35, 38, 41, 42, 44, 45, 46, 59, 71), ten studies involving separation of subjects and targets in different buildings (50, 51, 52, 53, 34, 32, 8, 77, 61, 60), and two studies involving precognition tasks (59, 75). These data are summarized in Table 1. The results were independently significant in 27 of the 33 experi- ments. By the end of the 1930s there was general agreement that the better- controlled ESP experiments could not be accounted for on the basis of sensory leakage. The hypothesis that significant “extrachance” deviations in ESP ex peri- ments might be attributable to motivated scoring errors was investigated in several studies. In one investigation (26), 28 observers recorded 11,125 mock ESP trials. Of these, 126 (1.13 percent) were misrecorded. Observers favor- Table 1; ESP card-guessing experiments (1934-1939) excluding sensory cues* Method Studies N (Trials) Mean/25 p< “Clairvoyance” paradigm, stimuli in sealed, opaque : envelopes 129,775 . 4.0 x 10-1! “Clairvoyance" paradigm, stimuli concealed by opaque screens 16 497,450 | . 2,0 10-11 Distance 10 164,475 : ye Precognition paradigm 2 115,330 . 2.95 x 10-* * References given in text. * Includes work with both ‘telepathy’ and “clairvoyance” paradigms * Stimuli generated after subjects made their responses Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4 7#”