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one that was used in the formal test (see Section 3 below), and V002 claimed that
it represented
a transition from three-dimensional to two-dimensional targets.
In V002’s theoretical construct,
this also represents a change from perceiving object conditions to perceiving object meaning.
j As can been seen from both the hit rate and accumulated excess hits, there
was one period (approximately 14.3% of the total number of trials—trials 254 through 321) that
corresponds to a decline
in performance.
This period
is the only time during the exploratory
sessions in which a large number of trials (68) were attempted during a single session (average hit
rate of 40%). The second longest continuous segment was from trial 335 to 358 (24 trials for an
average hit rate of 54%).
In answer to questions about what was occurring with each of these strategy
shifts,
all V002 could say
is that they represent new psychoenergetic contact with some of the
noise sources shown in Figure 2
.
It is frustrating from SRI’s perspective as well as from that of
V002 that these strategies remain so subjective.
j
In addition to the 477 binary trials,
18 were collected, but not included in
the record.
For these
trials,
the target was whether or not a second person was
in the SRI
analyst’s office.
The hit rate for these 18 trials was 78%. p ^ 1.69 x
10’2
, and the effect size
was 0.50.
These data are not to be considered part of the experimental record, however, since
it
became apparent that the background noise level was obviously different when a second person
was in the office.
Thus,
it is assumed that the strong scoring could easily be attributed to cuing.
(U)
During FY 1988, two smaller series of forced-choice experiments (n = 3 and n =
6) were conducted.
The protocol for these was the same as for the binary case except that the
target pool was appropriately larger.
V002 contributed 135 trinary
(i.e., one-in-three)
trials.
The
hit rate was
48% (expected hitting rate
is 33%), p < 1.83 x
lO’4
, and the effect size was 0.31.
This effect
size
is slightly larger than the fiducial binary case and represents an increase from 0.25 for the
first half of the data to 0.34 for the second half.
With so few trials,
it is difficult to interpret this
increase.
These trials were primarily used to form a fiducial point for later trinary experiments.
;—
JV002 contributed 49
trials
in a one-in-six experiment. The
hit
rate was
18%,
p < 4.49 X
10- 1
, and the effect size was 0.018.
These trials were exploratory for V002,
to determine subjectively if some of the binary routines were applicable to a larger pool of target
choices.
This small effect size and hit rate (expected hit rate is 17%) indicate that more work
is
needed to understand the forced-choice remote viewing of one-in-six target possibilities.
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3.
(U) Formal Test
,
As in earlier years, there
is no indication (except where noted) that these
results can be accounted for entirely on the basis on inadvertent cuing.
However, SRI conducted
a formal test of 50 trials as a concluding effort for FY 1988. V002 used strategy 537B throughout
the formal series.
(U) The protocol for the formal experiment was designed to eliminate the possibility
of any inadvertent cuing.
In general,
it was similar to the binary procedures that had been in use
since the beginning of the binary search program in FY 1986 as described above.
a.
(U) Number of Trials
(U) The
total number of
trials
for the
formal experiment was
specified
in
advance as 50.
b.
(U) Target Material
(U)
For each
trial, pairs of targets were selected from the material shown in
Table
3.
Some of the time V002 suggested a pair, but most of the time the choice was up to the
experiment coordinator.
These pairs were not chosen randomly.
Rather they were chosen in
accordance with a subjective opinion as to the difference between the pair.
Occasionally, V002
would request a different pair before the
trial was initiated.
c.
(U) Computer Link
(U) To ensure
that
there
was no
inadvertent
cuing,
a computer
link was
established between the experiment coordinator (EC) and the research assistant (RA).
After a
target had been generated
(see below) the only communication allowed over the computer link
froip the EC was the single word “Ready.” To further protect
against inadvertent cuing, the word
“R^ady" was typed automatically by a special program rather than manually.
d.
(U) Sequence of Events for a Single Trial
(1)
Viewer 002 selected a pair of possible targets from the list shown above,
and informed the RA.
(2)
The RA informed the EC by computer link of the choices.
(3)
The EC used established computerized random procedures to select one
of the pair as the actual target and placed
it in a predetermined place.
The other target of the selected pair was placed in a desk drawer.
One
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(U)
minute after Step 2, the EC informed the RA that a target was ready by
typing the single word “Ready.”
(4)
The RA informed the viewer that a target was ready by striking a bell.
(5)
The viewer responded, and the RA informed the EC of the choice by
the computer link.
(6)
The EC recorded the data and informed the RA of the target.
(7)
The RA provided feedback to the viewer.
(8)
Before a new trial could begin, the EC had to replace the targets in the
target pack and signal the RA by typing “Next.”
Table 3
(U)
TARGET LIST FOR THE FORMAL EXPERIMENT
Number
Description
Graph paper: red,
circular.
Contour map: black, ovals.
Contour map: black, concentric circles.
Graph paper: black, rectangular.
Circular graph paper: Black, concentric circles.
Reactance frequency graph paper: orange, rectangular/triangular.
Reactance frequency graph paper: green, rectangular/triangular.
Circular percentage graph paper: green,
3 circles.
Geomagnetic meridian plot paper: black, 3 half circles.
Perspective graph paper: blue, rectangular, diagonal lines.
Triangular coordinate paper: orange, triangles.
Triangular coordinate paper: green, triangles.
Square graph paper: green,
10 x 10 to the inch.
Square graph paper: orange, 4 x 4 to the inch.
Square graph paper:
5 x 5 to the centimeter.
Circular, polar coordinate graph paper: orange, 10 pans to the inch.
Circular, polar coordinate graph paper: green,
10 parts to the inch.
Chart geomagnetic latitude paper: black, 11x18 inches.
flag/alert sheet with red-striped border.
document cover:;
f
$j<i document covgr: brown beige.
manila envelope.
mat paper.
mat paper.
mat paper.
NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT:
large sign.
PLANS:
large sicn. —
.
large sign.
CODE XLTZ:
large sign.
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e.
(U) Record
(U) The date, target pair, intended target, and the response were tabulated for
later analysis
(see Table 4).
Table
4.
f.
(U)
Analysis
(U) A single p-value and effect size were calculated from the data shown in
g.
(U)
Results
I
Table
shows
the
targets
that were used and
the
results
for the
50-(rial formal series.
There were 38 hits, corresponding to a hit rate of 76% (p < 1.53 x
10 -4
)
and |an effect size of 0.51.
The hit rate
is consistent with that observed using strategies 537 and
537B, and the effect size
is nearly double that obtained during the fiducial run at the end of FY
1980.
If
it
is assumed that the
hit rate of 64%
is the
actual
hit
rate, then there has been a
significant increase
(p < 0.038)
since FY
1986.
The one-sided confidence interval (95%)
is
66%L which
is greater than the
fiducial value of 64%.
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Table 4
(U)
RECORD SHEET FOR THE FORMAL EXPERIMENT
Trial
Date
Target Possibilities
Target Choice
Response
Hit
One
Two
9/20
X
9/21
9/21
9/21
X
9/21
X
9/22
X
9/26
X
9/27
X
9/28
X
9/29
X
9/29
9/29
X
9/30
X
10/3
X
10/3
X
10/3
10/3
X
10/3
X
10/4
X
10/4
X
10/4
X
10/4
10/4
X
10/5
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Table
4, Continued
L
„J,
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X
X
X
X
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^
i
1,16 problems of forced-choice remote viewing (i.e., remote viewing of a limited
and known set of target alternatives) could be solved, a number of potential applications come to
mind.
First and
foremost,
standard redundancy
coding techniques
could be employed
to
improve
the
hit
rate
further.
This
is
not
a new
idea.
In
1964,
Ryzl
demonstrated
the
psychoenergedc transmission of 50 binary bits without a single error,* and in 1985 SRI published
a wlfite paper describing a program to determine optimum coding parameters.!
In that report,
SRI showed that
if psychoenergedc functioning were stable over time,
it would be possible to
trade number of trials
for
reliability.
Using techniques similar to the ones described in SRI’s
white paper,
it
is possible
to increase
the
single-bit
hit
rate
for a binary experiment from
a
nominal 60% to over 99%.
With such a low initial
hit rate, the efficiency
(i.e., one divided by
the dumber of trials required to obtain the desired certainty)
is of the order of 0.002 or lower.
nronmeni.
One solution to this problem
is to increase the single-bit
hit rate.
To do
this,
however,
requires
that
longstanding
problems
with
the
forced-choice
psychoenergedc
experiments
be
solved.
As
pan
of
the
(
“
"Enhanced
Human
Performance
Investigation,”
(Contract
DAMD17-85-C-5130),
SRI
initiated
a
pilot
investigation
of
forced-choice remote viewing to address the problem of low efficiency.
Since a binary search
strategy
is one of the most likely applications if an increased single-bit hit rate could be realized,
the effort to increase the rate was included as part of the FY 1986 Objective E, Task 2, Search.
In FY 1987 and FY 1988, this effort was under Objective F, Task
10, and Objective E, Task 4,
respectively.
(U)
This report summarizes the work performed from FY 1986 through FY 19884
(U) Ryzl, M., “A Model of Parapsychological Communication,” Journal of Parapsychology
Vol.
30, No.
1, pp.
18-30, (March 1966) UNCLASSIFIED.
t
(U) Humphrey, B. S.,
“Psi Communications Experiments (U).” White Paoer. SRI Interna-
dopal, Menlo Park,
California, (November 1985)'"’™
,"^™^™"-^^",,
^
t
(U) This report constitutes the deliverable for Objective E, Task
4, FY 1988.
) Jl03l(
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IV CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS (U)
?The
single most
interesting outcome
during the three-year experiment
is that
there was a significant enhancement of hit rate in the formal series in FY 1988 over the results
from the formal series during FY 1986.
~
^
in examining the performance during the
exploratory phase
in FY
1988, we
observed strong enhancement (not significant) of hit rate (see Figure 3).
At this point, a number
of possible explanations could account for the improvement:
•
V002 has correctly identified his/her source of internal noise,
•
Although SRI believes
it unlikely, V002 may have learned to use weak sensorial cues
during the exploratory phase, or
•
Due
to
the
complexity
of the
protocol
during the
formal
series,
there
is
still an
unknown sensory leakage path.
While
it
is impossible to rule out unknown sensory leakage paths,
all of the known ones were
addressed in the formal protocol. We include this remote possibility for completeness.
Because
of the protocol complexity, the remote viewing processes are indeterminate at present, but the
end-point statistic
is valid.*
^
It
is important that
this study be continued
in order to
isolate which
of these
explanations
is more
able
to
explain the
results, and
to
identify
a technique to
quantify the
internal experiences of V002, should that prove to be the proper explanation.
Should such a
technique be found, specific hypotheses could formulated and tested, and a training procedure
and applications could be developed based upon that knowledge.
(U)
During the Scientific Oversight Committee meeting of 4 November 1988, a
° f
comments were made concerning the adequacy of the protocols with regard
t0
However, there was general agreement about the endpoint statistic.
See
Enhanced Hu
Performance
Investigations
(U)."
Final
Technical_Report,
SRI
Project
1291.
SRI
International, Menlo Park, CA (December 1988)^
l
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Interim
Report-
j
_
Covering
the Period
October
1955
to 30 September
1986
955
tt
December
1986
LOCATION OF TARGET MATERIAL
IN SPACE AND TIME
(U)
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I INTRODUCTION (U)
A continuing
"
"
determining the location of'
interest,
whose positions are not known or are known only
is
...»
targets of
approximately.
.
It has been claimed by the parapsychological community that
individuals can search for and locate water,
oil,
minerals,
objects,
individuals,
sites
of archaeological
significance,
and
so
forth.
If
this
can be demonstrated
to be
a genuine ability,
and
if
it can be applied.
,
then we may have
a potential match
to the
it
above requirement.
This ability can be contrasted to the related psychoenergetic
ability
"remote viewing,"
in
the following manner.
In remote viewing,
the
viewer
is given location information
(e.g.,
coordinates,
a
"beacon"
agent,
or
a picture)
,
then asked
to provide data on target content
Jk
.
In "search,"
the viewer
is given
information on target content,
then asked
to provide location data
(e.g.,
position on a map).
The two
functions
thus compliment each other.
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(U)
The ability to locate targets
is most often referred to as “dowsing”
in the Western
literature, and "biophysical effect (BPE)” in the Soviet/East Bloc literature.
In this report,*
we shall refer to such techniques simply as “search.”
Although much of the literature
is
ane<jdotal,
1 t attempts to quantify the ability and to determine
its mechanisms have been
pursued.
t
f -
The goal of
the present effort
is
to research the literature,
then perform laboratory experimentation to determine whether,
and to what
degiree,
such functioning
is
a viable candidate
for applications
*T*Vv i
c*
i nr* 1 m/Iac
rloi-ormininP'
/ 1
^
t>6St.
methods and efficiencies
of various search techniques,
and
(2)
the
appropriate statistical analyses for evaluating results.
(U)
In attempting to determine
if this putative
ability can be brought under laboratory
control, we have simulated
“field conditions” with a computer-assisted-search (CAS)
experiment.
(U)
Our CAS experiments generally contain the following basic elements:
(1)
A
finite matrix of possible target locations
(e.g., a 20 x 20 graphics
matrix grid) from which one
cell
is randomly selected by the computer
as the target.
(2)
An individual whose task
is to “scan” the graphics display area, and
indicate, by pressing a button, his/her choice as to the target location.
(3) A feedback mechanism that displays the response and actual target
location.
(4)
An a priori defined analysis procedure.
(U)
Using this general procedure, we conducted an experiment during FY 1984 in
which two conditions were tested simultaneously:^
•
Searching for a target that remains fixed
in space
for the duration of the
trial (space condition).
*(tj)
This report constitutes Objective E. Task2:
Develop methodologies to locate target material in space
and/or lime.
t(U)
For the most comprehensive and authoritative survey of the claims for dowsing, see Christopher Bird.
Jhe Divining Hand, E.
P. Dutton, New York, New York (1979).
See
for example, papers published by Z. V. Harvalik. beginning 1970,
in The American Dowser,
the Journal of the American Society of Dowsers (Harvalik
is the ex-director of the basic research group
it the U.S. Army Engineering Laboratories,
Fort Belvotr, Virginia).
(M)
References are listed at the end of this document.
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