Approved Ne Release aR Oe RPA RE ARMY er an a Seay somone 20310 MEMORANDUM FOR MEMBERS OF GRILL FLAME, SCIENTIFIC EVALUATION COMMITTEE SUBJECT: Initial Assignments 1, In accordance with our meeting at the Pentagon on 27 July, this memo confirms the assignments for draft write-ups of specific topics related to our evaluation task, a. Dr, Tang - Discuss the general evaluation criteria for para- psychological research experiments, especially with respect to the contribution and limitation of statistical significance testing in phenomena- logical verification applications, (It would be desirable to attempt to relate this by example or otherwise to RV and PK evaluations, ) b. Dr. Cartwright and General Stahl ~ Discuss the applicability of the RV protocol and experimental procedures suggested by AMSAA to meet their stated objectives ("To develop and apply a methodology for quantitatively establishing the existence or non-existence of some form of psychic phenomena", ), Indicate also the approaches which have been taken by AMSAA to improve on the SRI procedures and discuss further modifica- tions which are required (especially in the selection of targets and assign- ment of judging procedures) in order to decrease or eliminate the uncertain- ties inherent in the proposed 'matching" criteria, ce Dr. Holloway and Dr, Montgomery ~- Discuss the program planned by MICOM and SRI to attempt the experimental observation of possible effects by a human subject on a random stream of electronic pulses, Include an assessment of: (a) the need and timing for replicating the SRI experiments at MICOM; (b) the instrumentation which is proposed; (c) the experimental procedures as currently planned; (d) the instrumentation calibration procedures; (e) the random source selections, etc. Recommend any modifications to the planned (SRI/MICOM) process and protocol which would further assure the credibility of the results within the context and limitations of a computer~based, "hands-off", experiment producing a random bit stream of pulses, IF following the above discussion it is concluded that the very concept of the planned experiment has an insufficient scientific basis or an unlikely practical significance, you are invited to recommend any appropriate separa and changes to the proposed Sa & . So GRILL ELATE (> | & SS GLOSE Ne BARBY , Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001200230007-8
ApiStgyed For Release 2003/09/10 : SA-RDP96-00788R001200238007-8 t A i = a . py . So ad tt qd. Dr&flansky - Discuss the likey limitations, significance and scientific merits for the results which are expected to be obthined under the following assumptions: (a) AMSAA's RV experiments are conducted as currently planned; (b) AMSAA's RV experiments are modified in accordance with recommendations in para b above; (c) MICOM/SRI PK experiments are conducted as currently planned; (d) MICOM/SRI PK experiments are modified in accordance with recommendations in para c above (retaining the current random bit stream concept); (e) (optional) a new basis for assessing PK effects is derived which is a major conceptual departure from current experimental plans. (I recommend that you coordinate with Dr, Montgomery and Dr, Holloway, if you want to anticipate possible approaches to more rigorous scientific procedures, ) e. Dr, Snyder - Discuss the RV experiments conducted by SRI ‘during the past 6-7 years involving mostly coordinate cuing and ''beacon" tracking targeting methods, Of particular interest is the inclusion of an evaluation of: (a) the contribution of this work to establishing the existence of the RV phenomena; (b) shortcomings in the protocol which tend to diminish credibility; (c) future benefits to be obtained by replicating the SRI procedures at SRI or elsewhere; (d) SRI's application and interpretation of statistical procedures in general, and particularly as they are being applied to the ''search-type" problems utilizing sequential analysis, 2, Ihave appreciated very much your cooperation on our recent trip, and Iam looking forward to receiving your draft material (typed or not) by mid- August, As we concluded in our final session, I will make an interim report of our work as it pertains to recommended changes in the AMSAA work, so that the benefits of the Committee's review can be implemented in a timely fashion, However, before lissue a memo placing a "hold'! on AMSAA's experimental planning, I will attempt to coordinate with you by telephone, If I can be of any help to you between now and the meeting on 18-20 September, please get in touch with me, Enclosure Updated List of Committee Members me ea > ka? Cor ay aan Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001200230007-8