Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA- RDP96- 00789R003000490004-2 Target and Sender Dependencies ~ V1 20 March 1994 It is difficult to interpret this analysis. If we claim that dynamic targets should be more readily sensed by AC, then we are entitled to examine only the significant receivers. While not overtly so, the trend sup- ports that assertion. Ratings, however, can be biased because of content. We could argue that this dif- ference is simply due to that fact that there is more content in the dynamic targets than in the static ones. There are two arguments against this assertion, however. In this experiment, the content of the dynam- ic targets was carefully chosen to match that of the static targets. In addition, our rating scale is sensitive to both incorrect and correct information. It seems unlikely, therefore, that the increase in scoring can _ be accounted for by content bias. We see little evidence for a target type dependency when we include all receivers, or when we examine the overall difference, using the rank-order data (X* = 0, df = 1, p < 0.5). General Discussion and Conclusions In our first experiment, we found that AC statistics with static targets were better than with dynamic ones. We hypothesized that this difference resulted from a combination of the target pool design and the receivers’ expectations. Following this idea, May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994a) define target pool bandwidth as the number of differentiable cognitive elements in a target pool. They suggest that a target pool, such as our original static pool, which contains enough elements to prevent guessing, while at the same time allowing for some internal editing of receivers’ imagination, is optimal with regard to the reduction of noise. In the first experiment, the dynamic target pool did not fit this ideal. When we constructed a better dynamic pool for the second experiment, we observed commensurate increases in the effect sizes. May, Spottiswoode, and James suggest that their target pool bandwidth concept is test- able, and it is our hope that these tests will be conducted in the near future. In the second experiment, even after correcting possible defects in our target pool design, we were un- able to observe a significant target type dependency. On the other hand, the direction for a replication is clear. May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994b) suggest that they have identified an irinsic target property that correlates with the quality of AC (i.e., gradient of Shannon’s entropy). If this is true, then there might be a fundamental argument that implies that dynamic targets should be better than static targets. Ifa dynamic and static target pool were constructed on the basis of the best gradients of Shan- non’s entropy, then a significantly improved test could be accomplished. Finally, we comment upon the sender condition. Our results show, as in forced-choice AC, that a sender is not a requirement. It is reasonable to expect that if the sender condition is not blind, then some de- pendencies might be observed. Dr. Robert Morris and the research group of the Psychology depart- ment at the University of Edinburgh are currently conducting a study to answer the necessary and/or sufficient requirement of a sender. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000490004-2 16
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000490004-2 Target and Sender Dependencies V1 20 March 1994 References Bem, D. J. and Honorton, C. (1994). Does psi exist? Replicable evidence for an anomalous process of information transfer. Psychological Bulletin. 115, No. 1, 4-18. Honorton, C. (1975). Error Some Place! Journal of Communication, 103-116. Honorton, C. (1992). In May, E. C., Luke, W. L. W., and Lantz, N. D. (1992). “Phenomenalogical Research and Analysis.” Science Applications International Corporation, the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory Final Report: 6.2 and 6.3. May, E. C., Utts, J. M., Humphrey, B. S., Luke, W. L. W,, Frivold, T. J., and Trask, V. V. (1990). Advances in remote-viewing analysis. Journal of Parapsychology, 54, 193-228. May, E. C., Spottiswoode, S. J., and James, C. L. (1994a). Managing the target pool bandwidth: Noise reduction for anomalous cognition experiments. Submitted for publication in the Journal of Parapsychology. May, E. C., Spottiswoode, S. J., and James, C. L. (1994b). Shannon entropy as an intrinsic target property: Toward a reductionist model of anomalous cognition.. Submitted for publication in the Journal of Parapsychology. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000490004-2 17