datamatters24/research-document-archive huggingface dataset:
Approved For Release p001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9 Ww) C December 1988 Final Report- (CC) Covering the Lariod 1 October 1987 to 30 September 1988 oc FORCED-CHOICE REMOTE VIEWING (U) ter (90) S mS 6 On SRi Project 1291 iS DB eo LIS Sri LAAN ee 333 Ravenswood Ave. @ ~ Menlo Park. CA 94025 ERY over For Relerso22001105107 ‘CIR RDPS-00789R0032001 60001-9
I
Approved For Release 2001/03/07
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9
Table
(U) UNIVERSE OF TARGET AND RESPONSE ELEMENTS
Element
w
T(p)
ROO
Functions
(1.0)
High-power microwave production
0.8
EMI component testing
0.8
Destructive testing of electronics
Ground focal area
1.73
Testing a concept—debugging
Distributed for catching something evenly
Defensive function
Collecting data for later analysis
0.1
Relationships (0.75)
Source enclosed in a trailer
0.7
People away from test site
Targets <,
1 km from source
0.5
!
Energy exit enclosure
Multiagency participation
Permanent building connected to temporary one
1.9
Two spherical mirrors connected together
1.9
Fibers outside edge
1.9
Large, semicircular shape with block
1.9
Multiple support trailers
0.3
Power generator, 50 m north
30-degree beam divergence
Horn-shape at end of 4x6-cm pipe
0.8
Inner and outer wrapping
0.2
Device
is of “human” dimensions
0.5
Airstrip away from mountains
0.25
f
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
Approved For Release 2001/03/07
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003300210005-8 stawrt/9s/an/\ ‘ seuUuosIed ILWD xVIS vid Aq peyonpuosd sjpelold jOUOCTIDIsdO puD ‘qRA ‘Hulme, ejourery — IO] sfooojolg pup ‘uoTJoeTes jeHID], ‘SOTHO[OPOUIEY ‘SUE, AJTJUSP] OL dsOdd nd Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003300210005-8
fae | \ Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-90789R003200160001-9 KU > Evidence supporting the tendency for significant subjects to do better on one task over the other (as reported in previous research) can be demonstrated by calculating a z-score for the difference between the z-scores associated with the average (across individuals) p-values of the significant condition versus the nonsignificant condition. We find z = 2.87, which is significant at the 0.002 level. 9 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9
ey Approved F : pp or Release ic : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9 I INTRODUCTION (UV) A. (U) Overview —It.has been claimed by the parapsychological community that certain people can search for and locate water, oil, minerals, objects, individuals, sites of archaeological significance, and so forth. This purported ability is most often referred to as "dowsing" in the Western literature ,{ , { Win this report,t we shall refer to such techniques simply as "search." If "search" can be demonstrated to be a genuine ability, and if —— it can be applied , then we may have a potential contribution ' (U) This ability can be contrasted to the related remote viewing ability in the following manner. In remote viewing, the viewer is given location information (e.g., coordinates, a beacon agent, or a picture), then asked to provide data on target content. In “search,” the viewer is given information on target content, then asked to provide location data (e.g., position on a map). The two functions thus complement each other. a *(U) For a comprehensive survey of the claims for dowsing, see Christopher Bird, The Divining Hand, E. P. Dutton, New York, New York (1979). Tu) This report constitutes the deliverable for Objective D, Task 1 and Objective G, Task 1. 1 Approved For Release aed : ani pelea
Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9 (U) To see whether or not this purported “search” ability could be brought under laboratory control, a computer—assisted search (CAS) routine was developed. This routine consists of the following elements: (1) A finite matrix of possible target locations (e.g., a 20 x 20 graphics matrix grid) from which one cell is randomly selected by the computer as the target. (2) An individual whose task is to “scan” the graphics display area with a computer mouse, and indicate, by pressing the button on the mouse, his/her choice as to the target location. (3) A feedback mechanism that displays the response and actual target location. (4) An a priori defined analysis procedure to compare the targets with the responses. B. (U) Background (U) Using this general procedure, an experiment was conducted during FY 1984 in which two conditions were tested simultaneously: '* ’ © The target remains fixed in space for the duration of the trial (space condition). © The target is rapidly moving to various locations, so that the subject must push the button at exactly the right time (time condition). bSeven subjects, who were blind to the Space/time condition, were each asked to contribute 50 trials (25 space, 25 time). Five of them produced independently significant results: three in time only and two in space only. No participant was successful at both space and time conditions. (U) A larger pool of subjects was used to try to replicate this finding in FY 1986. Participants were chosen on the basis of interest and availability, and included both experienced and novice subjects. As in the FY 1984 experiment, each subject contributed 25 trials under each of the two conditions, space and time, and were blind to the condition in force for each trial. Most subjects were unaware that there were two conditions. * i Results were analyzed by separating the trials collected under the two y Thirty-six subjects participated in the FY 1986 experiment. conditions, as before. Six subjects attained significant results (p < 0.05) in the time condition, and two in the space condition. The smallest a _ ° (U) References are listed at the end of this report. 2 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : lsh eee
Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9 I attained p-value was 0.0001. The probability of obtaining such an extreme result, with 72 separate tests (36 in each condition), is 0.007. {The appropriate formula for this is [1 - (1 ~ 0.0001)72}, where in general the smallest p-value in an experiment with n separate tests is used instead of 0.0001, and n is used in place of 72. } ‘ sin both years of testing, no participant scored Significant hits in both the time and space conditions. (There were two subjects in FY 1986 who scored significantly in the direction of missing the target under both conditions.) This observation led to the question of whether or not talented subjects bifurcated into two groups: those who could search over a spatial area, and those who could push the button at just the right time. A follow-up experiment was proposed in FY 1986 to test this. ‘ ____. Eleven subjects who had done well in the original FY 1986 experiment were asked to participate in a "single condition” experiment in which they would search under only the condition for which they had scored well. Thus, those who scored better in time were told of this fact, and were told that the target was constantly moving. Similarly, those who had done well with a fixed target were tested only under this condition, and were explicitly told that the target was stationary. Eight subjects completed this experiment. Results from this single condition experiment proved to be nonsignificant for all subjects. On (U) Experiments for FY 1987 (U) Since the FY 1984 and the original FY 1986 experiments had shown evidence of “search” ability, and since the only change in the follow-up FY 1986 experiment had been to remove the random assignment of the space and time condition, it was decided that an experiment should be conducted in FY 1987 in which the random space and time conditions were again used. This will be further discussed in this report, under the title of “Computer-Assisted Search Experiment.” (U) As another test of “search” ability, an experiment was conducted during FY 1987 with a group of five self-proclaimed dowsers. The purpose of this experiment was to see if any of these individuals could come closer than expected by chance to locating a shipwreck, by 3 Approved For Releafe 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9
- 7 I Approved For Release 200/1/03/07 : CIA-RDP9-00789R003200160001-9 (U) In our experiment, a bounded area representing the perimeter of a 20 x 20 cell matrix was shown to the participant, with the additional option of having the 400 individual squares of the grid displayed. Figure 1 shows the display with the grid option. The participant old that the target could be anywhere within the square, and that he/she should move the was t “seemed right.” The cursor around, and push the button on the mouse when the moment computer was programmed to give immediate feedback to the participant following each trial by automatically displaying the target cell as a filled square and the participant’s choice as a shaded square, with a line connecting the two (see Figure 1). After several seconds of the feedback display, the computer recycled to the next trial. Coordinates of the target and response were stored for future analysis. UNCLASSIFIED FIGURE 1 (U) SEARCH MATRIX COMPUTER DISPLAY WITH FEEDBACK B. (U) The Atocha Experiment ( “~\o take the search task out of the laboratory, five self+proclaimed dowsers were asked to participate in an experiment to see if any of them could find an object by searching a map. (One of then, Viewer 198, has been part of the SRI Psychoenergetics Project since 1984. At times he/she has performed excellently in real-world laboratory search tasks. However, his/her overall performance 6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9
__e— ‘ Pees: fenems ee Prerreeen aa Wana mir Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9 iy “—— ERF—RS ? —«— ERF—DS V009 V531 Long Field) (ft) v007 V908 200 | via V262 NW aA \ nt v372 Short V002 Laval porvamyell Mh V734 Poststimulus 500 1040 1700 Time (ms) A (U) VASSY PROTOCOL—50—TRIAL AVERAGES FOR EACH VIEWER FIGURE 5 Should this peak be a response to a remote stimulus, then at least one alternative (to the psychoenergetic interpretation) must be considered. Since the shielded room for the MEG is nearly transparent at frequencies above 100 Hz, the observed peak might result from a CNS response to an electromagnetic signal related to the display of the stimuli on a standard television monitor. 16 Approved For Release 2001/3107 : CIA-RDPB6-00789R00320016000 -9
Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9 Remote Stimuli LL | a Pseudostimuli Arbitrary restimul p (remote) < 0.093 p (pseudo) < 0.839 = 0 .653 1.582 Ratios p (remote) < 0.017 p (pseudo) < 0.762 Arbitrary Poststimulus p (remote) < 0.944 p (pseudo) < 0.512 1 10-Hz Power x 10? FIGURE 11 (U) 10-HZ POWER: CHANNEL 4—V002, 8/25/88 23 Approved For Release aes hel : aie ialeaaeemaaaiaaal ;
Abspedio Sthipeharetdepvering 60 2708126 1/85R DP96-00789RO0YSO0ODUIEI=7% Phenomenological Research and Analysis Author: Edwin C. May, Ph.D., Douglas MacGowan, and Earling DeGraff | | 31 December 1993 Science Applications International Corporation An Employee-Owned Company Presented to: U. S. Government Contract MDA908—93—C—0004 (Client Private) Submitted by: Science Applications International Corporation Cognitive Sciences Laboratory 1010. ELCamipo Real, Suite 330, P.O. Box 1412, Menlo Park, CA 94025 © (415) 325-8292 Approved: fRelease-2000/08/08 GideRDPI6100769R00320009000 1:7"
Apysrevencasicn Aevesecz eediesivis: ClA-RDP96-00789R003200090001-7 The objective of this document is to provide a periodic status report for research and analysis of anoma- lous mental phenomena.” Approved ForRe tease! 200 008/082’ CHA -RDP 86.60 T39RO03200090001 -7
AbpnenensipaleskBpeawehangciowelt - CIA-RDP96-00789R003200090001-7 ll PROGRESS REPORT 1. Technical Milestones In this section, we provide highlights of the technical progress during the period between 11 September 1993 through 31 December 1993. 1.1 Clin 1: Research SEh¢ primary activities during the reporting period included: © Concluded Physiological Effects of Remote Observation Experiment. © Concluded Anomalous Cognition/Entropy Experiment. @ Concluded EEG Experiment. 2. Changes There were no changes to the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory, method of operation, management, or milestones during this reporting period. 3. Problems There were no problems encountered during the reporting period. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200090001-7
Approved For Release i ln , ~~ ERF—REMOTE ? | Normalized et aay pau | Field (ft) : Poststimulus Time (ms) FIGURE 21 (U) VASSY PROTOCOL~AVERAGES FOR EACH VIEWER 35 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA/RDP96-00789R003200160001-9
ARAKAVAD IE Ata SAGE NA WB/OS : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200090001-7 4. Financial summary 4.1 Total Project Statistics ($1,425,613 k) CLIN 001 . eb wow see osa PES SRERPGEE SE Figure 1. Financial Performance for Total Project Total Project Financial History 13 August 1993 $803,520 10 September 1993 11 October 1993 11 November 1993 7 December 1993 Figure 1. shows that the overall project expenditures are above the ideal linear curve. This can be ac- counted for by the fact that subcontractors, consultants, government furnished equipment and mainte- nance, were paid in the beginning of the contract. As we approach the end of the contract, the actual costs will level to the linear spending curve. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200090001-7
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003200090001 -7
II PROGRESS REPORT
Technical Milestones
In this section, we provide highlights of the technical progress during the period between 11 September
1993 through 31 December 1993.
1.1 Clin 1: Research
g'Qif grimary activities during the reporting period included:
• Concluded Physiological Effects of Remote Observation Experiment.
• Concluded Anomalous Cognition/Entropy Experiment.
• Concluded EEG Experiment.
2. Changes
There were no changes to the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory, method of operation, management, or
milestones during this reporting period.
3. Problems
There were no problems encountered during the reporting period.
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003200090001-7
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003200090001-7
4. Financial summary
4.1 Total Project Statistics ($1,425,613 k) CLIN 001
Ibtal Project Financial History
IMBMi §j| Bq^eaditure ($10 §§!
29 January 1993
$47,979
1 March 1993
$135,769
26 March 1993
$254,921
23 April 1993
$409,954
26 May 1993
$512,946
22 June 1993
$595,783
16 July 1993
$694,479
13 August 1993
$803,520
10 September 1993
$898,680
11 October 1993
$984,322
11 November 1993
$1,050,372
7 December 1993
$1,128,179
Figure 1. shows that the overall project expenditures are above the ideal linear curve. This can be ac-
counted for by the fact that subcontractors, consultants, government furnished equipment and mainte-
nance, were paid in the beginning of the contract. As we approach the end of the contract, the actual
costs will level to the linear spending curve.
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003200090001-7
Approved For Release 2001/03/67. : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9 d wT U the time condition, it is 0.644 (minimum p = 0.121). For the entire experiment, the minimum p-value is still 0.002, but it is based on 16 replications, so the overall Significance level is 0.032. A more interesting result with regard to potential . —_ : . : applications is an estimate of the reduction in the area that would have to be searched if the responses given by these subjects were used instead of randomly choosing a starting point. This can be computed by comparing the average proportions given in Table 1 with the chance average of 0.50125. { For Subject 837, under the space condition, the average reduction would be 33%. For example, if a search was undertaken for a kidnap victim, and this subject achieved the personal average level of functioning demonstrated in this experiment, 33% less area would have to be searched before the victim was found than if a random starting point was used. Even though only one subject had a Significant result, combining all subjects’ guesses in the Space condition would still give an average reduction of 6.5% in the area searched. Depending upon the application, this reduction could still represent a substantial savings in expenditure of resources. In the time condition however, the results indicate that there would be no change in search time over chance. ees In addition to looking at the average reduction in search area, it is of interest for applications to know what percent of the trials would have resulted in a smaller search area than expected by chance. For Subject 837 in the space condition, 18 out of 25, or 72% of all trials resulted in a savings. This means that if this subject were used repeatedly to suggest a starting point for searches, approximately 72% of all targets would be found in less time than average, and 28% would require more than the average. In contrast, a random starting place Should result in about 50% above and 50% below average search times. For all subjects combined in the space condition, 104 out of 200, or 52% of all trials resulted in a savings in search area. For the time condition only, 102, or 51% resulted in a smaller search area than would be expected by chance. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 1CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9
Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9 fd IV DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS (U) t 4 The experiments discussed in this report were designed to replicate and extend earlier findings which indicated that selected participants could use psychic means to help search for a hidden target. The computer-assisted search experiment, which served as a direct replication of the experiments conducted in FY 1984 and FY 1986, once again showed promising results. AS in the earlier experiments, no subject was able to produce significant results independently in both the time and the space conditions. Further, the two subjects who produced the best results did so: in the space condition, which replicated their performance in the earlier experiments. The best subject in the time condition had scored significantly in the time condition in FY 1986, but not in space. In general, those who did well in this experiment (excluding one novice) did so in the same condition for which they had previously scored significantly. iJ Even though n is small, we were able to speculate that subjects bifurcate into those who can search for fixed targets (space) and those who can identify when to register a guess (time). It would appear that each subject would do best in an experiment which ‘contained only the preferred condition. A study done this year to test that notion produced completely chance results. Thus, it appears that even if this bifurcation does exist, it is best to present subjects with randomly scrambled conditions. Perhaps the knowledge of exactly what the task requires adds an analytical component which is hard to overcome. This has been observed in other psychic functioning, such as forced choice guessing of targets in remote viewing. { This is the third year in which a computer-assisted search ——— experiment has provided evidence that psychic functioning may be of some eee : : ™ searching for hidden or lost use in: targets. Although such functioning is not completely predictable, it appears to be robust enough, when selected subjects are used, to Approved For Release 2001/03/07, 4 CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9
Approved For Release ic : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9 III RESULTS AND DISCUSSION (U) A. (U) Real-Time vs. Precognition Experiments 1. (U) The Beacon RV Series (U) Table 1 shows the results of the 20-session beacon RV series. Table 1 RESULTS FOR VIEWER 372 k Overall, no condition met the criteria for statistical significance. For Viewer 372, this represents the first time at SRI that a series has not met statistical significance out of four attempts (counting each condition as a separate attempt). Given Viewer 372’s track record, we allow for some speculation as to possible reasons for the results of this series. 4 Viewer 372 first participated in a six-trial RV experiment in FY 1980. That study produced four first place matches and two second place matches for a combined p-value of 0.003.'! His/her second participation was in FY 1986. when twelve beacon RV trials were conducted with an overall p-value of 0.007.'* Combined with the two efforts in FY 1987 (see Table 1) the average p-value is 0.201. Using an exact calculation, '® the probability of observing an average p-value of 0.201 in 4 experiments is 0.017. This is consistent with a minimum p-value (0.003) technique’? which yields 0.012. a ‘There are at least two possible hypotheses for this experiment not reaching significance. The first (and most likely one) is given by Utts.'® If one is willing to estimate a "hit" rate given that RV 10 Approved For Release 2901/03/07 : iy een
Approved For Release 2001/03/97 ? CIA-RDP ¥6-09789R003200160001-9 ‘ } <4. ~— is real, then it is possible to calculate the probability of observing a Significant study. While it is difficult to ascertain the actual "hit" rate for RV, Utts provides an estimate for a similar process-—-Ganzfeld. For a 10-trial study the probability of observing a significant result is only 15%. (MCE is 5%, of course.) \ _Secondly, a new variable was introduced by the nature of the protocol. The time between the remote viewing and the feedback was greater than two hours. This represents an order of magnitude increase over our other experiments. The influence of this increase is currently unknown. 2. The Target Photograph Series ee, | Table 2 shows the results of the four-viewer real-time vs. précognition experiment. Based on the sum of ranks and their associated p-values, there was no significant evidence of RV in this series. Table 2 REAL-TIME VS. PRECOGNITION RESULTS * q[vorvm [remove at [ESE rt/pc Paes [wen | mer | om 70 (0.912) 68 (0.862) 138 (0.954) 15/15 220 (0.203) 227 (0.472) 447 (0.179) 52/55 *(U) Sum-of-ranks (p-value) Totals o | ' Based on the past performance (in real-time RV) of these —— a particular viewers, the results are disappointing. Yet, because of their record, we speculate upon possible reasons why this experiment did not reach significance. Approved For Release 2001/03/ 11 3 eee eee 60001-9
Approved For Releas¢ 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9 a _lAs described above, an estimate (provided by Utts'®) of the probability of a significant 10-15 trail RV series is approximately 15%. Yet it remains surprising that no significant series was observed in eight attempts. cJa possible problem is that this particular experiment was conducted after the successful tachistoscope experiment (described below). That experiment required 40 trials from each viewer. Since this experiment required 30 trails from each viewer, a given viewer had to produce 70 remote viewings in approximately 80 days. 4 _'tn summary, then, we were unable to demonstrate a significant RV phenomenon in the real-time vs. precognition experiments. Considering the vast amount of data in the literature that claim the existence of precognition, we recommend that the study should be continued at a later date. B. (U) The Tachistoscope Experiment (U) Table 3 shows the sum of ranks and associated p-values for the tachistoscope feedback experiment. Table 3 (U) TACHISTOSCOPE FEEDBACK EXPERIMENT ~ 182 (0.962) 104 (3.5x10°°) 4. ™ a *(u) Sum-of-ranks (p-value) a “Viewers 009 and 177 produced independently significant results. There are a number of ways in which we could combine these data, but the most conservative is a binomial calculation assuming an event probability of 0.05. Two successes in four trials corresponds to an exact 12 Approved For Release foovosio7 : CIAHDPRE-00789R008200160001-9 bene