“be toe mp tr ¢ BIE es Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260003-4 Additional data analysig is, of course, parformed ta determing how cloge to ground truth the data actually WAS This may be of Value in understanding how to conduct future projects of this rature. (S/NE/SS-3) Overall data carrelations for all SUN STREAK operational and operational simulation projects performed since 1986 are shown im Figure &. These results ware obtained by averaging the data entered on the Summary Data Evaluation sheets for each project primarily for two data categauries (i.@. large scale and gmall scale object and function). The top lines on the bar charts reflect data averages abtained from the praven or experianced viewers. For sane projects, especially some of the CN and CY projects, the distinction between large scale anc small scale is neat clearcuts furthermor this differentiation may mort... (Bae > bre - ‘predi: projects, data ‘correlations were based mainly on a hit/miss calculation. (S/NF/SS—3) Figuee 5S indicates that, on the average, data from -praven. SUN STREAK viewers for S/T projects will tend to have a Boo percent, toa. 2a percent correlation with ground truth for emall scale targets, and a Oo percent to So percent correlation with ground truth for, large scale target features. Likewise, for CT ar CN projects, about 20 percent to So percent of SUN STREAK data would be expected to correlate with ground truth. Caution muigh be exerciged in interpreting thig data, however, Since the cle is@ with known ‘ground truth ig quite low fn these categories. For CL and Document reading projects, SUN STREAK data hows a 40 percent ta &O correlation l@vel with ground truths however the size ‘this database igs also quite. Lcw. The Dacument Reading jraje are, however, carefully isolated and in a known or dagignated Locatian. Predictive data of the complex event type Ca.gqg., political/military situations) shows a very low data correlation (i.@., reliability) of about 10 percent or legs. . . (S/ NF /SS—) If all SUN STREAK projects are averaged Loqgether y ae shown in Figure 6, data corr@lation wauld range fram ' t for gmal sal Bpacts to about 40 percent for agpects, While “averaging” such data may indicate bts im the long run, such averaging tands ta washout that have singular high merit, such as the [0 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260003-4 tives ‘marteguirty | “and | most sof ‘the GN ce. ce
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260003-4 Gi ) OVERALL DATA CORRELATIONS — oS, ” =< ° ue os ou in 40 rae) a < - < [= ) o io] NO oO CN Cl DOC. PRED. CONTENTS PROJECT TYPE LARGE SCALE . SMALL SCALE (TEST FACILITY, AIRFIELD) : - (LASER TEST, ANTENNA DISH) gucnct NOFORN |  gpsa53.02 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789RQ007002 03-4
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260003-4 OVERALL AVERAGES FOR — PERCENT OF ALL PROJECT TYPES” - DATA CORRELATION - 60 LARGE SCALE S ae ce a aa : : ALL PROJECTS SionZ7 NOFORN | $5353.01 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : cena oreo oo2en008-4
vohart indicates - certain. strengths: STREAK staff and sugge Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260003-4 identification several months in advance of a specific area an) the US where a fugitive was later found. In this cage, SUN STREAK data was not acted upons fortunately, the fugitive was nevertheless abducted in this area due to the alertness of local law enforcemant official. Qt (S/NE/SS-2) Another way of considering overall SUN STREAK project data correlation is ta consider only the proven vi@wers. Thie data is shown in Figure 7, for times when these experienced viewers received a Zor @+ in the numerical ratings assigned to their data correlations. Only two types of data are presented heres S/T, and Personality data ag obtained from the various CT, CN and Cl projects. For S/T projects, proven viewers would be axpected to receive a high (1.@. approx. 70 percent) data correlation. rating on about 20 percent of the S/T projects attempted. For Personality projects (i.@., background, state-of—- the-health, specific activities), arcaund So parcent to 60 percent af the projects . would yield high, ES SUL ba Essentially, this @aknessés’ “OF : the. present, SUN ste that more projects on foreign or Cr Large at personalities are warranted. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260003-4
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260003-4 EXPECTED RESULTS FOR APPROXIMATELY © — 70% DATA ACCURACY SELECTED PERSONNEL ” ra © uu ~ Oo [om Qo. us Oo = = LJ O [sa Liu a. S/T PERSONALITY DATA PROJECT TYPE  seosne Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260003-4
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260003-4 TIl FINDINGS (i) (S/N /S5-5) Although the overall data correlations pravided in the pravious section have, in some ingetances, have a low overall averaqe, the results are unique enough to warrant further attention and continued SUN STREAK activity. Even in the lowest reliability case (i.@., predictive), identification of even one imporkank future avant out of tan could in fact be highly siqnificank far cast or life saving. These "averages" do nat do justice toa the single uniqua casas that cost little to act upon, ag im the cage of the fugitive location cited in section 3. (S/NF/S5-S) Specific findings that resulted fram in-depth review of the entire SUN STREAK data base includes _o “Indi viduals ‘_fer form ance | correlates With project type. AS ob servation.. Has’ aite@adyagel sted: “Le hetber: “eas ke ZP@rsan Soci ML “HEN ‘and dverall ‘data corre iaproave in the future. oO SUN STREAL has a distinct potential for direct contribution ta certain - no Ci, CN” aS ‘barn. Out hy Specific ingtances. over the past | two | years. o Fredictive data is promising under certain conditions, such as near term evants or situations that dea not involve ‘complex interactions. O° S/T data, though having: promise for select tasks, | ‘does. a BUN S| eo Tt may be anviroanment af caper e ee generates a clear and immediate need. This situation seams to foster conditions that enables RV to function better. o Obtaining highly reliable RV data and then applying it to real aperatioanal projects igs difficult. However, it is evident that continued wark with RV data does result in ae neiqht an how best to usa RY data and on how best talent available Thus, it i6 anticipated ce of the SUN Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260003-4 lations would be expected to