‘ Approved For Release eee : ani eceaiaaaadadnnaaae — ~ closed interval [0,1]. The Hk always represents the degree to which exis present at the target. For example, suppose that the target is the ATA facility, and the target element under consideration is the concept of "testing shielding effectiveness." Its membership value, which is determined subjectively, is 0.2 indicating that only 20% of that concept applies to this target. To allow for differing missions, wkis an arbitrary weighting factor. As Simulation requires that certain elements be more important than others. For example, the -energy aspect is very important and is assigned a weight of 5 compared to a cooling tower with a weight of 0.5, | The RV response is similarly defined as a fuzzy set of. response elements R[ek,}tk,wk). The membership values for response elements, however, have a somewhat different meaning than those for target elements. The Mk represent the analyst’s assessment as to the degree of presence (on the closed interval [0,1}) of exin the response. declarative statements, For hk= 1 unless V372 volunteers a specific or implied importance to the overall target. A degree of interpretation is allowed for non-declarative statements by letting p< 1. identical to the target wk. The response wx are For the purpose of analysis, all target and response information is defined as the fuzzy sets T and R, respectively. an ©) ‘We have defined Accuracy as the percent of the target material that was described correctly by a response. Likewise, we have defined Reliability (of the viewer) as the percent of the response that was correct. The FM is the product of the two; to obtain a high FM, a viewer has to describe a large portion of the target material correctly in as parsimonious a way as possible. In fuzzy set terminology, these quantities for the jth target/response pair are as follows: 8 . Approved For Release 2009/08/10 : ClA-RDP96-00787R000300150001-4
: Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : cia.RDP96-00787R000300180001-4 pa Wi (RINT): Accuracy, = a, = ———————— D We Ti k > Wy (R|NTIx Reliability = r = “————_—_——-_ , , > Ws Rix k and Figure of Merit = M, =a xr i j The sum over k is called the sigma count in fuzzy set terminology, and is defined as the ,sum of the membership values, p, for the elements of the response, target, or their intersection--i.e., Rj, Tj, and (RiMTj), respectively. 2. (U) Target and Response Data 1 . ,The universe of target/response elements are drawn from the May 7, 1987, ATA experiment. We have defined three element eategories; functions, relationships, and objects. These categories are used to guide the weighting factors (i.e., the default weights are 1.0, 0.50, and 0.25, respectively), and are used as multipliers of the relative weights to form the we. , (U) With such a complex response, a number of options are available for analysis. Rather than analyzing the data scan by scan, all scans were considered together to provide the response input to the universe of elements. (U) Table 1 shows the universe of target/response elements and the formal definition of T and R. The various scaling weights are shown in parentheses adjacent to the appropriate factors. The relative weights are derived from SRI’s best assessment of the operational utility of each element. The response membership values, R(), were determined from the raw data (see Appendices A and B). ‘The target membership values T(j1), were determined by SRI personnel prior to the start of the experiment. A few elements, however, 9 Approved For Release oodoioaito : cla-RbPe6-00787R000300150001-4
‘ "| — ~~ =e eS Se —_, =, eel | =, —_, —, ee ‘ Approved For Release Pooginsito : CIA-RUP96-00787R000300150001-4 (U) were determined by an SRI analyst on a post hoc basis in order to allow for a more accurate assessment of reliability. Table 1 (U) UNIVERSE OF TARGET/RESPONSE ELEMENTS PRIMARY ELEMENTS (1.0) Functions (1.0) : Sh energy Electron accelerator Operatian in air Test experiment High intensity electron beam production Problemé related to vacuum/air Destructive beam that dissipates quickly in air Beam ionizes air Two experiments: one local, one not Calibration exercises Testing penetration power in air Emulation for a much larger scale device Ultimate aim is to destroy missile parts Testing shielding effectiveness Electronics survivability testing Testing new form of laser Operation in space Satellite detection is difficult Nuclear production of electrons to excite new laser Output results from nuclear process Controlled explosion Laser output in microwave pe i ee et et ee et Relationships (0.75) Power source above beam line Linear array of buildings Tunnel under buildings One-story buildings Curvilinear beam line Electrons flow through beam line Test equipment both sides of target building E&M radiation < 10 Angstroms Ignition at core of sphere Energy radiates out and is reflected back into sphere 15-foot diameter sphere Pipes into and out of sphere oosogposSeooeS IAI AIAYAANAIANAIS AMA AAA UAA GAA AN 10 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300150001-4 “
' ‘ Approved For Release 2000/98/10 : Cl ‘-RDA96-00787R000300150001-4 Table 1, Continued (U) UNIVERSE OF TARGET/RESPONSE ELEMENTS PRIMARY ELEMENTS (1.0), continued Objects (0.5) External electron beam Very dangerous to humans Atmosphere “glows” when operating Multiple teams of people E&M radiation High security area Beam visible in air Electron injector Tunnel Electric power Control room Monitoring equipment Piping * Vacuum ATA facility (buildings) Shielding Power substation Cooling towers Massive door External] piping Laser Control computer Electron beam Timing is critical Hard target Loud noise Wave guide Free electron laser (not operating) Coherent wave Roads Two. events Film presentation Hollow polished (internal) sphere. Bundled metal rods NNN c—) a en) cm) Qo OD & UO WS BAD) Bo me ee et et ee et tt ee et et et et Pt ie SB WWAMAAAAAnAnUaANaAaAnnaReeereeENUAW o SOSSSSSSSSS9999S999999999 11 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP46-00787R000300150001-4
- —. .—~» mm sm oe - Approved For Release oodoro8/t0 : Cl P96-00787R000300150001 -4 Table 1, Continued (U) UNIVERSE OF TARGET/RESPONSE ELEMENTS SECONDARY ELEMENTS (0.50) Functions (1.0) Wind-power electricity generation Relationships (0.75) Poles scattered in hills Poles connected in a grid Objects (0.5) Foothills Electrical grid Rotating blades Multiple wind generators TERTIARY ELEMENTS (0.25) Functions (1.0) Multipurpose laboratory complex Six-story administration building Relationships (0.75) T-shaped, six-story building Round-topped building just east of tall building Swimming pool north and east of tall building Large parking lot just west of tall building Linear array of trees adjacent to parking lot Larage, segmented, one-story building complex 0.5 mile north of tall building Main roads bordering complex City to west of complex Main entrance at west of complex Laboratory is two miles from city City is north of laboratory Air field is southeast of laboratory Mountains surround Jaboratory Freeway is north of laboratory — i ee NER Ohe SS999999 SO9999 NNNNNNNY NNNNWO Objects (0.5) Tall building Parking lot Linear array of trees Road Many buildings Main entrance Building with cylindrical shaped roof Air field Flat valley Mountains Large mountain eS Paorsescessese ee ee et ee ee eG) Ce ell ell coll conell eel ceed wel ee er ee ee ee el ell od 12 Approved For Release zoobiosi10’=Cm-ROPSp-00787R000300160001-4
- Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300150001-4 IV RESULTS AND DISCUSSION (U) Table 2 shows the figure of merit analysis for the ATA experiment using the fuzzy sets defined in Table 1. The target/response intersection is shown as |TNR|, and the sigma-count of the target and response sets are shown as |T| and |R|, respectively. All quantities include the full weights shown in Table 1. The primary target was the ATA external electron beam experiment. The secondary target was the adjacent wind-power generation farm, and the tertiary target was the | \ laboratory complex and surrounding area. Viewed as separate targets, the _. figures of merjt of 0.94 and 0.81 for the wind-power farm and the[_ - Kolar tors, complex respectively are in good agreement with the qualitative correspondence shown in Figures 2 and 3. Figure 4 shows ade al data RO Lat os on the tertiary target viewing compared to a map of the. _jarea. (Ghese figures represent data obtained during the 0800 scan and are consistent with the tasking and location of the beacon person (see page 6). The relatively lower value of 0.56 for the primary target is also consistent for the "scattered" nature of the response (see the original transcript in Appendix B). The combined value of 0.61 reflects the weighting factor in favor of the primary target. Table 2 ‘ w (S/NF) FIGURE OF MERIT (FM) SUMMARY-~« : , . | Target Type PRIMARY Function 20.50 22.00 Relation 1.80 4.95 ee a — — — — — Object 16.86 23.00 39.16 | 49.95 | 54.56 | 0.78 ee EE 13 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300150001-4
Rae ge ale ais oy Pe eters I" Paomwiss (ace) ILD. 372 ? 4 i EuTCOCIOY Ww oe Wirt am . | a TY alc! oN PE ont ino ELECTRO | \ Fl ee? MO ee oF GRIO wo yn in A FOR , -—_?_ -” i FIGURE 2 (U) PART OF THE 0800 RESPONSE COMPARED WITH PHOTOGRAPH OF THE =i ALTAMONT WIND-POWER ELECTRIC GENERATION FARM : 14 ~« Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP§6-00787R000300150001 -4
‘' Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300150001-4 a a ee ~_——- fe BRE THPE Fenn Cc. LAB TYPE £8 —ALDED TB, bine, FIGURE 3 (U) PART OF THE 0800 RESPONSE COMPARED TO THE WEST GATE OF 15 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300150001-4 I MTS Ale Atawe. — Go aot ota \
Approved For Release 2009/08/10 : CIA-RDR96-00787R000300150001 -4 SESSION 2,.10:10 a.m. (WU) May, 1987 (U) M: | , OK, it’s about 10 minutes after, V: ( - ) Right, M: ve. _) May 7. And what we’re about to do now is the retrocog...retrocognition part of the outbound experiment that we’re working on, and that involves going back to 12: 12 minutes after 10. targeting period. i : P | V: ‘a A OK. There’s a really distinct dif initial séssion we were tar cuts out here, ferent feeling, uh, in the geting the general layout onto the (tape in 30’s on counter) B-4 - Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300150001 -4 ~