Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000490005-1 , . Managing the Target Pool Bandwidth V4h 23 March 1994 The sources of noise in the forced-choice domain are reasonably understood (i.e., memory in conjunc- tion with complete knowledge of the target pool elements). A new insight for us was another potential source of noise in the free-response domain. To understand this noise source, we must first assume that AC data are weak and difficult to recognize. Target pools which contain a large number of diverse cogni- tive elements, in conjunction with receivers who believe that this is the case, are a source of noise. Re- ceivers will tend to report any imagined impressions, since those impressions might be part of the target. Since AC is assumed to be weak, most of the generated impressions are from the receiver’s imagination rather than from the target. Furthermore, it follows that the noise will increase when these impressions are unable to be internally edited and must be reported. Thatis, noise is generated not so much from an active imagination, but imagination coupled with an agreement not to edit the internal experience. Editing our internal experience is something we all do in our daily communication: we rarely report toa friend that our mind momentarily wandered during an interesting discussion. Humans appear to have an ability for multi-proccssing, but we use situational filters to communicate coherently. So, why would we deny this same ability to participants in AC experiments? In Figure 1, we represent schematically the contributions to the noise produced by memory and the noise produced by not editing imagination. Combination / Unedited Imagination a a ou a feat =) jo) g£ ° oo Ay ae] d £ 3) x 7) Y Unselected Movies Universe 5 — 00 Differentiable Cognitive Elements in the Target Pool Figure 1. Schematic Representation of Sources of Cognitive Noise As the number of differentiable cognitive elements in a target pool increases from two (for a binary choice) to nearly infinite (for the universe), we propose that there is a trade-off between noise arising from memory and noise arising from unedited imagination. For target pools containing fewer ele- ments, the noise contribution from memory (i.c., the curve labeled “Memory” in Figure 1) exceeds im- pressions arising from edited imagination. Regardless of one’s internal fantasies, there is usually a com- plete protocol restriction on allowable responses. The reverse is true for target pools that contain a large number of cognitive elements: the contribution to the noise because of unedited imagination ex- ceeds that arising from memory. In this case, protocols usually suggest that receivers report nearly all internal impressions (c.g., in the ganzfeld protocol), and since there will likely be far more of these im- pressions than there are target elements, the noise is increased. At the same time, since there are a large number of elements, and because it is difficult to remember all possible elements and their factorial’ Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000490005-1
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000490005-1 Managing the Target Pool Bandwidth V4h 23 March 1994 combinations, the contribution to the noise due to memory is reduced. We suggest that our National Geographic magazine target pool represents a good compromise: there are enough differentiable ele- ments to reduce the effects of memory, but few enough to allow reasonable editing of internal experi- ences that arise from imagination. The receivers in our experiments have, over time, learned the natural limitations of the National Geo- graphic target pool by experience and by instruction. They have become skilled at internal editing and do not report impressions that they know are absent from the overall target pool—thus there is less incorrect material in their responses. In Lantz, Luke, and May’s 1992 experiment, where the dynamic targets could be virtually anything, the receivers were unable to produce significant evidence of AC. They also produced, what is for us, signifi- cantly reduced functioning with static targets. We speculate that this drop of functioning in both target conditions arose because the protocol would not allow the receivers to edit their internal experience, Since the dynamic targets could be consist of anything, and since they were blind to the static-vs-dynam- ic target condition, they were unable to edit their imaginations, even for the static targets. To illustrate this point, suppose that half the target pool were ESP cards and the other half were the ganzfeld dynam- ic targets, but the receivers were blind to the target condition. In any given trial, even though the target is actually the star ESP card, the receiver is inclined to report all internal imagery, whether it be cartoon figures, car races, and/or sex scenes from movies. This increased the incorrect information over what it would be for a simpler target pool of ESP-cards alone. A strong word of caution is in order. Editing of internal experience because of sensory knowledge of the target pool cannot inflate a differential rank-order statistic. It will, however, bias any rating scale to- ward larger values. This is not a problem if ratings are used in correlational or comparative studies. We define target pool bandwidth as the number of differentiable cognitive elements in the target pool. Forced-choice experiments usually represent small bandwidths, video clips usually represent a large bandwidth, and the National Geographic magazine photographs represent an intermediate bandwidth. At this time, the definition is qualitative, but we will indicate ways in which it can be made more quanti- tative. Nonetheless, the target pool bandwidth concept is testable. The following hypotheses formed the basis of Lantz, Luke, and May’s second study in 1993: (1) A significant increase of AC will be observed for dynamic targets if the dynamic pool is designed with an intermediate target pool bandwidth that matches the static pool from the 1992 study. (2) An increase of AC will be observed for static targets because the receivers will be able to edit their internal experience. Summary of the second Anomalous Cognition Experiment — 1993 The details of the 1993 study may also be found in Lantz, Luke, and May (1994). In that study, they included a static vs dynamic target condition to replicate the findings from the ganzfeld, but dropped the sender condition: all trials were conducted without a sender. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000490005-1
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000490005-1 Managing the Target Pool Bandwidth V4h 23 March 1994 Target Pools - 1993 For this experiment, Lantz, Luke, and May redesigned both the static and dynamic targets with the constraint that they all must conform to the topic, size, and affectivity homogeneity of the original static targets. Surprisingly enough, they identified a large number of videos that could be edited to produce 50 National Geographic-like segments: an airplane ride through Bryce Canyon in Utah or a scanning panoramic view of Yosemite Falls. Lantz, Luke, and May selected a single frame from within each dy- namic target video clip, which was characteristic of the entire clip, to act as its static equivalent. Thus, they were able to improve the target pools in two ways: (1) The dynamic pool possessed an intermediate target pool bandwidth. (2) The bandwidth of the dynamic and static pools were nearly identical, by design. Data Analysis and Results - 1993 For each response, a single analyst conducted a blind ranking of five targets—the intended one and four decoys—in the usual way. Lantz, Luke, and May computed effect sizes in the same way as in the 1992 study. Three receivers individually participated in 10 trials for each target type and a fourth, 372, participated in 15 trials per target type. Table 3 shows the average rank, the effect size, and its associated p-value for the static target condition. We see that the combined data is significant and three of the four receivers produced independently significant results. Table 3. Results for Static Targets - 1993 Experiment [recser [<tani |S [pale , ES 0.778 72x1073 Lantz, Luke, and May observed a nearly significant increase of AC for the static targets in the 1993 ex- periment compared to that of the 1992 experiment (X? = 3.158, df = 1, p<0.075), and three of the four receivers improved from their 1992 results. Thus, the second hypothesis (ie., an increase in AC for static targets) was strongly supported. Table 4 shows the same data for the dynamic targets. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000490005-1
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000490005-1 Managing the Target Pool Bandwidth V4h 23 March 1994 Table 4. Results for Dynamic Targets — 1993 Experiment SE Using the rank-order statistics above, Lantz, Luke, and May saw no difference between static and dy- namic targets in their 1993 study. The first hypothesis was confirmed: they observed a significant in- crease of AC with dynamic targets in 1993 from that of 1992 (X? = 9.942, df = 1, p <1.6x10 3), A detailed analysis of the static vs dynamic target issue may be found in Lantz, Luke, and May (1994) and in May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994). General Discussion and Conclusions One possible interpretation of the results from Lantz, Luke, and May’s two experiments is that the noise was sharply reduced by narrowing the target pool bandwidth. They observed a significant increase of AC with the dynamic targets and a large increase with the static ones. Caution is advised in that this analysis is post hoc, and there were a number of potential contributing factors. For example, in the first experiment, receivers were not monitored and were at distances ranging from a few 100s to 1000s of km from the targets. In addition, feedback was delayed for a few days due to the delivery time of the U.S. postal service. In the second experiment, the receivers were monitored, given immediate feedback, and the targets were meters away. Yet, we find the bandwidth analysis compelling because of its “common sense” appeal. Since the properties attributed to target pool bandwidth may be subjected to experimen- tal scrutiny, we urge that such studies be carried out. For example, is there a parabolic-like functional relationship between the target pool bandwidth and the AC effect size? | To conduct such experiments, we need to develop a quantitative definition of target pool bandwidth. This implics a quantitative definition of cognitive content, and we have been applying our fuzzy set analysis (May, Utts, Humphrey, Luke, Frivold, and Trask, 1990) toward this end. We are also looking at other measures that might be used. Nonetheless, it seems clear that a quantitative definition of band- width is within reach. Once realized, and if the target pool bandwidth idea can be verified, we all may benefit from a specific protocol that will reduce the noise in free-response AC experiments. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000490005-1
(tence OT | Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000490005-1 ce a Managing the Target Pool Bandwidth ; V4h 23 March 1994 References Bem, D. J. and Honorton, C. (1994). Does psi exist? Replicable evidence for an anomalous process of information transfer. Psychological Bulletin. 115, No. 1, 4-18. Honorton, C. and Harper, S. (1974). Psi-mediated imagery and ideation in an experimental procedure for regulating perceptual input. The Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research. 68, 156-168. Honorton, C. (1975). Error Some Place! Journal of Communication, 103-116. Honorton, C. and Ferrari, D. C. (1989). “Future Telling:” A meta-analysis of forced-choice precognition experiments, 1935-1987. Joumal of Parapsychology, 53, 281-308. Honorton, C., Berger, R. E., Varvoglis, M. P., Quant, M., Derr, P., Schechter, E. I., and Ferrari, D. C. (1990) Psi Communication in the ganzfeld. Journal of Parapsychology, 54, 99-139. Lantz, N. D. and Luke, W. L. W,, and May, E. C. (1994). Target and sender dependencies in anomalous cognition experiments. Submitted for publication in the Journal of Parapsychology. May, E. C., Utts, J. M., Humphrey, B.S., Luke, W. L. W.,, Frivold, T. J., and Trask, V. V. (1990). Advances in remote-viewing analysis. Journal of Parapsychology, 54, 193-228. May, E. C., Spottiswoode, S. J., and James, C. L. (1994b). Shannon entropy as an intrinsic target property: Toward a reductionist model of anomalous cognition.. Submitted for publication in the Journal of Parapsychology. Rosenthal, R. and Rubin, D. B. (1989). Effect size estimation for one-sample multiple-choice-type data: Design, analysis, and meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 106, 332-337. Rosenthal, R. (1991). Meta-analytic procedures for social research (Rev. ed). Newbury Park, Ca: Sage. Schlitz, M. J. and Honorton, C. (1992). Ganzfeld psi performance within an artistically gifted population. The Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 86, No. 2, 83-98. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000490005-1