Approved For Release 2000108108 .;,FIA-RDP96-00789R0Q320024000 boa knowing the physiological limitations of the human systems, we further concluded that the observed effects could not have arisen due to a human-mediated force (i.e., AP). Ww r=} i=} _) a fasl a = £ < 0.00 bvnnsnnn a anne ‘. Nien rence: aT or cictsnacesess ira 4 8 x2 (df = 1) Figure 7. Observed and Theoretical Correlation Distributions. Mathematical Model of the Noise Diode Because of the unique construction parameters of Texas Instrument’s MD-20 noise diode, May et al. were able to construct a quantum mechanical model of the detailed workings of the device. This model contained all known properties of the material and it’s construction parameters. For example, the band gap energy in Si, the effective mass of an electron or hole in the semiconductor, and the impurity con- centration were among the parameters for the model. The model was successful at calculating the diode’s known and measured behavior as a function of temperature. May et al. were able to simulate their RNG experiment down to the quantum mechanical details of the noise source. They hoped that by adjusting the model’s parameters so that the computed output agreed with the experimental one, that they could gain insight as to where the causal influence “entered” the device. May et al. were not able to find a set of model parameters that mimicked their RNG data. For example, changing the band gap energy for short periods of time; increasing or reducing the electron’s effect mass; or redistributing or changing the impurity content produced no unexpected changes in the device output. The only device behavior that could be effected was its known function of temperature. Because of the construction details of the physical RNG, this result could have been anticipated. The changes that could be simulated in the model were all in the microsecond domain because of the details of the device. Both with the RNG and in its model, the diode’s multi-MHz output was filtered by a 100-KHz wide bandwidth filter. Thus, any microsecond changes would not pass through the filter. In short, because of this filtering, the RNG was particularly insensitive to potential changes of the physical parameters of the diode. Yet solid statistical evidence for an anomaly was seen by May et al. Since the diode device was shown mathematically and empirically to be insensitive to environmental and physical changes, these results must have been as a result of AC rather than any causal AP. In fact, this observation coupled with the bit Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200210001-39
ARBFONBA PE RRSR REAR AUR Hefy!A RDP96-00789R00%200 21900 tak. timing argument, which we have described above, lead May et al. to question causality in RNG studies in general. Summary of Circumstantial Evidence Against AP We have identified six circumstantial arguments that, when taken together, provide increasingly diffi- cult requirements that must be met by a putative AP force. In summary, the RNG database demon- strates that: (1) Data are independent of internal complexity of the hardware RNG device. (2) Data are independent of the physical mechanism producing the randomness (i.e., weak nuclear or electromagnetic). (3) Effects with pseudorandom generators are statistically equivalent to those observed with true hardware generators. (4) Reasonable AP models of mechanism do not fit the data. (5) In one study, bits which are - 1 ms from a “perturbed” target bit are themselves unperturbed. (6 — A detailed model of a diode noise source, which includes all known physics of the device, could not simulate the observed data streams. In addition, AC, which is a mechanism to describe the data, has been confirmed in non-RNG experi- ments. We conclude, therefore, an AP force that is consistent with the database must @ Be equally coupled to the electromagnetic and weak nuclear forces. @ Be mentally mediated in times shorter than one millisecond. @ Follow a 1/\/n law. For these to be true, an AP force would be at odds with an extensive amount of verified physics and common behavioral observables. We are not saying, therefore, that AP cannot exist; rather, we are sug- gesting that instead of having to force ourselves to invent a whole new science, we should look for ways in which AP might fit into the present world view. In addition, as DAT tries to accomplish, we should invent non-causal and testable alternate mechanisms for the experimental observables. Conclusions We have shown that DAT can determine whether a causal or informational explanation is more consis- tent with a given set of anomalous statistical data. In applying DAT to the substantial physical RNG database, we showed that an informational mechanism is strongly favored over a large class of perturba- tional ones. Given that one possible information mechanism (i.e., precognitive AC) can, and has been, independently confirmed in the laboratory, and given the weight of the empirical, yet circumstantial, arguments taken together against AP, we conclude that the anomalous results from the RNG studies arise not because of a mentally mediated force, but rather because of a human ability to be a mental opportunist by making AC-mediated decisions to capitalize on the locally deviant circumstances. Our recent results in the study of anomalous cognition (May, Spottiswoode, and James, 1994) suggest the the quality of AC is proportional to the change in Shannon entropy. Following Vassy (1990), we compute the change in Shannon entropy for an extra-chance, binary sequence of length n. The total change of entropy is given by: Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200210001-#0
ABRIANES FOS EIRARR AO AMOR AR GF IA-RDP96-00789ROOR 2M 21ND ilosh AS = Sy — S, where for an unbiased binary sequence of length n, S, =x, and S is given by: = —np,log,p, ~ nl — p,)log,(1 — p,). Let p; = 0.5 (1 + €) and assume that g, the effect size, is small compared to one (1.e., typical RNG effect sizes are of the order of 3 x 10-%. Using the approximation: In(l + e) =e - & we find that S is given by: e2 san — "Fm2’ or that the total change of entropy for a biased binary sequence is given by; =~ 6 ~Sa7,@ AS = S)-S = nxF5. Since our analysis of the historical RNG database shows that the effect size is proportional to 1/./n (i.e., Z-score is independent of 1), the total change of Shannon entropy becomes a constant that is inde- pendent of the sequence length. Thus, if entropy is related to what is being sensed by anomalous cogni- tion, then this argument suggests that informational processes are responsible for the RNG anomaly. - The one exception to this conclusion is Braud’s study of AP on red blood cells. It may be that there is something unique about living systems that can account for this observation. On the other hand, it is the only biological AP study we could find that could be analyzed by DAT, and the perturbation hypothesis is only weakly favored over the selection one (i.e., p < 0.023). Before we would be willing to declare that AP is a valid mechanism, more than a single, albeit well designed and executed, study is needed. Generally, we suggest that future RNG, PRNG, and biological AP studies be designed in such a way that the criteria, as outlined in this paper and in May, Utts, Spottiswoode (1994), are adhered to for a valid DAT analysis. Our discipline has evolved to the point where we can no longer be satisfied with yet one more piece of evidence of a statistical anomaly. We must identify the sources of variance as suggested by May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994); limit them as much as possible; and apply models, such as DAT, which can begin to shed light on the physical, physiological, and psychological mechanisms of anomalous mental phenomena. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200210001-3'
ARRERIRG FORA ASG RORMOBAABor fF IA-RDP96-00789R0Q320021000 boa References Bierman, D. J. (1988). Testing the IDS model with a gifted subject., Theoretical Parapsychology, 6, 31-36. Braud, W. G. and Schlitz, M. J. (1989). Possible role of Intuituve Data Sorting in electrodermal biological psychokinesis (Bio-PK). The Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 83, No. 4, 289-302. Braud, W. G. (1990). Distant mental influence of rate of hemolysis of human red blood cells. The Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 84, No. 1, 1-24. DeGroot, Morris H. (1985). Probability and Statistics, 2nd Edition. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co. Dobyns, Y. H. (1993). Selection versus influence in remote REG anomalies. Joumal of Scientific Exploration. 7, No. 3, 259-270. Honorton, C. and May, E. C. (1975). Volitional control in a psychokinetic task with auditory and visual feedback. Research in Parapsychology, 1975, 90-91. Honorton, C. and Ferrari, D. C. (1989) “Future Telling:” A meta-analysis of forced-choice precognition experiments, 1935-1987. Journal of Parapsychology, 53, 281-308. Jahn, R. G. (1982). The persistent paradox of psychic phenomena: an engineering perspecitve. Proceedings of the IEEE. 70, No. 2, 136-170. Lewis, T. G. (1975). Distribution Sampling for Computer Simulation. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books. May, E. C. (1975). PSIFI: A physiology-coupled, noise-driven random generator to extend PK studies. Research in Parapsychology, 1975, 20-22. May, E. C. and Honorton, C. (1975). A dynamic PK experiment with Ingo Swann. Research in Parapsychology, 1975, 88-89. May, E. C., Humphrey, B. S., Hubbard, G. S. (1980). Electronic System Perturbation Techniques. Final Report. SRI International Menlo Park, CA, May, E. C., Radin, D. 1, Hubbard, G. S., and Humphrey, B. S. (1985), Psi experiments with random number generators: an informational model. Proceedings of Presented Papers Vol I. The Parapsychological Association 28th Annual Convention, Tufts University, Medford, MA, 237-266. May, E. C. (1990). As chair for the session at the annual meeting of the Society for Scientific Exploration in which this original work was presented, I pointed out the problem of the likelihood ratio for the PRNG data from the floor of the convention. May, E. C., Spottiswoode, S. James P., and James, C. L. (1994). Shannon entropy as an Intrinsic Target property: Toward a reductionist model of anomalous cognition. Submitted to The Journal of Parapsychology. May, E. C., Utts, J. M., Spottiswoode, S. J. (1994). Decision augmentation theory: Toward a model of anomalous mental phenomena. Submitted to The Journal of Parapsychology. May, E. C. and Vilenskaya, L. (1994). Overview of current parapsychology research in the former Soviet union. Subtle Energies. 3, No 3. 45-67. Nelson, R. D., Jahn, R. G., and Dunne, B. J. (1986). Operator-related anomalies in physical systems and information processes. Jorunal of the Society for Psychical Research, 53, No. 803, 261-285. Nelson, R. D., Dobyns, Y. H., Dunne, B. J., and Jahn, R. G., and (1991). Analysis of Variance of REG Experiments: Operator Intention, Secondary Parameters, Database Structures. PEAR Laboratory Technical Report 91004, School of Engineering, Princeton University. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200210001-¥
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