CPYRGHT _— miter es se ors a THs in rounds from an American warship in the n Persian Gulfon Nov. 2 may have served to .drive away an intruding boat, but it also di- verts attention from some of the more sig- war—a conflict in which the United . States, whether or not Washington wishes to acknowledge if, is now deeply involved. This involvement arises from two cir- es. First, America is giving armed assistance to the oil exports of Kuwait, a State that from the start of the Gulf war has . been one of Iraq’s leading supporters. Sec- ond, while this assistance continues, Iraq is free to continue its fairly successful air-sea offensive against Iran’s oil industry, which supports Tehran's war effort. -We have not yet, of course, experienced major Iranian retaliation, which, if it comes, "__ islikely to be delivered by Chinese Silk" prod are a Chinese version oleae Styx, which was a highly sue- Cessful aati-shigitiissile until the arrival of the French Exocet surface-to-surface mis- -Silé, which is now in the Iraqi armory. head can damage a vessel of su The problem with the missile is that itsira-" é uGkive system can be jammed or chaif Can divert it from its target. Although the poiind war- bstantial size, Navy acknowledges that the Silkworm Cally ik fin about ialso is confident that it has th vert the missile once detected, e tools to di- Will the Silkworm be used? A normal government faced with the naval and air strength of the United States would contin- ué to employ the Silkworm only against Ku- waiti targets, midi? défense from that country’s Aspritde Hawk missiles and old Soviet 7 ce-to-air missiles. But, as we know now, the government in Tehran is ‘not a normal, rational one. Rather iti hs thosd SAP rove Par ete dee! rei several prone to “go for broke” and use | COMMENTARY DREW MIDDLETON _Gulf War Entering Critical, P ot - nificant weapons and forces ofthe Iran-Iraq | io i -A Silkworm ‘missile is launched during a. 4; weapon's 1,000-pound-plus warhead can se id froid the original pui’?* . The adverse course of events in the Per- sian Gulf is not the only troublesome situa- tion facing Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s 4 3 © jitary exercise in China.. The . wely damage a large vessel. “a spoonfuk of salt. But reports from Western intelligetee agencies in Tehran confirm that, althtugh the figures of Iranian casual- ties may be exaggerated, the fact remains that the Miujahedeen are presenting an in- . Tegune. Late last month the government secu- ~ Creasinglyserious military problem for the rity council met to discuss for the first time the expanding operations of. what it terms “terrorists” on it western frontier. The attackers are the Mujahedeen Khalq, or People’s Warriors, who have claimed from their headquarters in Bagh- soldiers and officials in 94 fora’ dad to have killed or wounded a Iranian forces. Theraiders, usually striking at nigh fe: Iranian amy. ' The eleients of the problem are famil- iar. The best of Iran’s regular troops are else- where — threatening Basra, training fora new offensive in the north. Raids by the Muja- haps Final, Phase for All tacks include the destruction of arms and... supplies, Their leader,Magsoud Rajavi, * who helped overthrow the shah, knows that the Iranian forces are running short of modern weapons and in a recent statement claimed that his forces had destroyed equipment worth millions of dollars. Fragmentary intelligence reports from Iran and its neighbors indicate that the inter- nal situation is vulnerable to this sort of resistance activity. Although the Khomeini regime’s police have ruthlessly quelled any open signs of disturbance, these reports ’ speak of widespread disaffection among _ two main groups. . The first is the urban middle class. De- veloped under the shah, it has lost jobs and standing. Its members no longer enjoy their old standard of living— not with lamb at $35 a half pound. Within this class, the lib- - erated women of the shah’s era are the most outspoken critics of the present regime. The second group is made up of the mothers and fathers of the “martyrs,” the name commonly given to the young men who have been killed inthe war with, Iraq... While there has never been an official fig- ure, some estimates run as high as 600,000 ; dead. The official government position is that the parents are proud of their sons’ martyr- dom. But the government has done nothing financially for the parents, whose loss of sons totillfarmsorrunshopswouldbethe equivalent in our society to a loss of Social ’ Security or an old-age pension. Exploitation of that situation by the Mu- .- jahedeen or even a decisive Iraqi victory, if and when Tehran launches its much dis- cussed “final offensive,” could bri hedeen must be met by poorly armed local the gov t. t, etn eta ato fora Sworn atact ack On. CIRDEREEES FEROTESROGOBUO 23000 fag Mins We are entering cia ,per- The Mujahedeen’s objectives in the at- Copyright 1987 Drew Middleton "a ~