Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0 to the second location 12 meters away. Although less pronounced (change- to-baseline ratios typically 2:1), the effect remains easily observable. The universal randomization protocol is used throughout to determine increase/decrease periods, Control run data are being col~ lected to be subjected to the same analysis, Multiple recording is used throughout to rule out artifacts due to recorder effects. Finally, an electrometer with the base of the bell jar serving as one electrode is monitored to record acoustic vibration independently. Due to the potential Significance of such findings, considerable data are being taken in order that the matter can be subjected to statistical analysis over a large sample involving hundreds of work periods. A few hundred data samples have already been collected for this purpose, and the results will be published when available, (d) Experiments with Geiger Counter As part of a continuing search for mechanisms involved in paranormal phenomena, a series of experiments were conducted with Subject 1 to determine whether a Geiger counter in the y-ray mode (i.e., beta Shield in place) would register subject-directed efforts. The output of a Geiger counter,” fed into a Monsanto Model 1020 counter/timer, indicates a background count due to cosmic rays ~35 counts/minute. Experimental protocol requires the subject to try to change the registered count by concentration on the Geiger counter probe from a distance ~0.5 meters, Each run consists of fifteen 60-second trials, with 10-second separations between the trials. Preceding each subject run is a control run of equal duration, * OCDM Item No, CD V-700, Model No, 66, Electro-Neutronics, Inc., Oakland, California. 59 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0 In four runs to date the results, shown in Table 8, indi- cate no effect of statistical significance, either in the mean or standard deviation of counts, Table 6 GEIGER COUNTER EXPERIMENT ean | Control Runs Experimental Runs Run Standard Deviation Standard Deviation De Basic Research Summary The basic research program to date has been spread over a number of subjects and over a number of activities, generating a considerable amount of data. It was deemed desirable in the first half of the research program to cover as much material as possible in a horizontal development to determine the best subjects and the fruitful directions for concentrated effort in the second half of the program, We intend to concentrate on analysis of the large amounts of data already obtained while subjects are involved in extramural medical and psychological testing. Based on the findings, a few carefully-chosen items will be culled for final specific testing following discussion with client representatives, 60 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0 Appendix 1 RANDOMNESS TESTS OF FOUR-STATE ELECTRONIC RANDOM STIMULUS GENERATOR 61 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0 Appendix 1 RANDOMNESS TESTS OF FOUR-STATE ELECTRONIC RANDOM STIMULUS GENERATOR The design objective was to build a four-state machine, with each state equally likely to occur on each trial, independent of the past sequence of states, If the machine meets this objective, it should not be possible to devise a rule for future play that Significantly differs from chance. A simple example of such a rule would be to select the machine state observed in the preceding trial; if this strategy were to produce scores significantly above chance (25 percent hits), we would reject the hypothesis of randomness of the machine under test, Before experimentation, four machines, purchased from Aquarius Electronics, Albion, California, were extensively tested for randomness. Data were analyzed on a CDC-6400 computer, and the three machines finally selected for use in screening met established criteria for randomness, In developing randomness tests, we are guided in part by a knowledge of the machine logic, When one of the four choice keys or the pass key is depressed, the current machine state is displayed; then a brief time after release of the key, a new machine state is established (but not shown to the subject) by sampling the instantaneous state of a high-speed four-state electronic counter. For the machine to be random, the times of dwell of the counter in each of the four states must be precisely equal; otherwise, the distribution of outcomes will be biased, The first randomness test is thus based on tallying the number of occurrences of each of the four states, This test should detect a stable bias, yet may miss a drifting bias. To test for this second possibility we also tally the distribution of outcomes in each group of 100 trials, then compute a 62 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0 likelihood ratio test statistic (see below) for each group. Under the null hypothesis of equal likelihood of the four states, these statistic values are distributed approximately as chi-square with three degrees of freedom and their sum for m groups distributed approximately as chi-square with three m degrees of freedom, This test may also detect stable bias, but is not as powerful for this purpose as the first test. Variable bias of still a shorter period, if substantial, can be tested for by tallying the frequency with which the previous machine state is repeated; an overall repeat ratio ("all") significantly above 0.25 is indicative of such bias. If for any reason the machine were to fail to sample the counter to establish a new state, the previous machine state would be repeated. To test for this possibility, we tally the number of repeats following the depression of each key. A repeat ratio significantly greater than 0,25 should be considered a danger signal, We also tally the initial machine states following reset and the transitions between states, In each case, the number of occurrences of each of the four possible outcomes should be approximately equal. When repeats are deleted from the sequence of trials ("nondiagonal transi- tions"), the four states should also be approximately equal in frequency. In testing the null hypothesis of four equally likely outcomes of a trial, a likelihood ratio test is used. The statistic 4 “2 n fn n/4 ’ } i n. i=l + under the null hypothesis is distributed approximately as chi-square with three degrees of freedom, with rejection for large values of this 63 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0 ok statistic. The computer program used in testing randomness includes a subroutine for computing the probability of a chi-square value as large or larger than that observed, In testing the null hypothesis that the probability of a repeat is 0.25, the binomial probability of obtaining the observed number K or more repeats in N trials is computed. For K greater than 1000, a normal dis- tribution approximation is computed, assuming the statistic K - 1/2 N ( N ~ 0,28) \/3/16 to be approximately normal with mean zero and standard deviation one. The typical test pattern used was six passes followed. by 25 choices of one color, repeating this for each of the four colors. In this way each of the five keys other than rest were given approximately equal use. Typically, 2000 to 6000 trials were made in each sitting. In the absence of any unusual results in the randomness tests, a minimum of 10,000 trials were made before using a machine with experimental subjects. With 10,000 trials, the expected fraction of repeats is 0.25 with a standard deviation of 3/200 = 0.00866, A sample computer listing of the results of randomness tests on Machine 4 is included in Table A-1. Of the four machines tested, three were found suitable for use in screening activity. The fourth machine was returned to the manufacturer for adjustment. * Alexander Mood, Introduction to the Theory of Statistics (McGraw Hill, New York, 1950). 64 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0 re °9796°O = ALTTTqeqo1d ‘cps = °a°d !TPpl9’66% = azenbs={TyD :STetdi QOT Fe sdnoi3 url sseuuiopuey +:e40N ELVSZ*O TIv ESES°O sseqd EEs "0 poy LGG6°0 entd 9Prsa ‘0 weedy Ipse’O AOTTOA | SUOTZTSURIZ TeUOSeTC A4tTTtqeqorzg | ofiey | szeedey | STRTAL~N fay Te Twout” SUOT]TSUBIZ [TeUOSeTpuoN so4e1s TIV SUOTLISUBIL so1e ys Tet TUT & SNIHOVN--SLSHL SSHNNOGNVE a T-V 8TdBL 65 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0 Appendix 2 PERSONAL OBSERVATIONS ON THE USE OF THE FOUR-STATE ELECTRONIC RANDOM STIMULUS GENERATOR 66 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0 Appendix 2 PERSONAL OBSERVATIONS ON THE USE OF THE FOUR-STATE ELECTRONIC RANDOM STIMULUS GENERATOR™ The following notes are based solely upon my experience and I there- fore make no claim that they are generalizable to other persons. Since I am still learning about ESP phenomena, I am confident that additional work in this area will expand, modify, and refine the perceptual processes discussed below. While I have tried to describe these experimental processes with as much precision as possible, the use of seemingly pre- cise language should not leave the impression that the perceptions them- selves were equally precise. To the contrary, I found these perceptions to be delicate, transient, and ephemerai--and yet, at the same time--and somewhat surprisingly--unmistakably real. 1. Perceptual Processes Working with the ESP machine proved to be a venture into unfamiliar perceptual territory which functioned according to new and different rules. It took some time (five hours or so with the ESP machine) to begin to learn not only which perceptual processes would work but, equally im- portant which would not work. There was clearly a learning process in finding those delicate and subtle internal cues that would allow me to make perceptually based choices. After approximately 1000 trials with the ESP machine, five dominant perceptual modes emerged. Subsequent work ao Prepared by a policy research analyst at SRI, who was a high-scoring sub< ject (p< 10°°) with the four-state electronic random stimulus generator, 67 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0 with the machine seemed to essentially expand and refine these perceptual processes that emerged initially. Direct Knowing (Used approximately 5 to 15 percent of the time)-- This perceptual cue came as a "gift" that I did not have to work for, This is not to say that this "cue" was always right, but when there was a direct perception of the appropriate response unmediated by any of the other cues described below, my chances of being right seemed quite high (say 75 percent of the time). Internally, this was simply the feeling that I should push one specific button and the knowing was almost im- mediate, If it were not immediate then, typically, one of the other cues would be used. "Closure Cues" (Used perhaps 75 percent of the time)--This cue mani- fested itself in a variety of ways; a-sense of "fullness" with respect to a particular button, an internal anticipation of the bell ringing, a sense of "hardness" or "firmness' and a sense of being “locked into” the correct response, The validity of this cue could be tested by acting and thinking as if I were going to push a particular button and then noting the extent to which these "closure cues" became present. This sense of active intentionality~-both physically and psychologically--seems im- portant in that it allowed me to sort out many real from imagined per- ceptions, Also, this cue often gave a kind of veto power; i,e., it did not necessarily assure me as to the right answer but it would tend to tell me if I had picked the wrong one, i.e., I would not experience the aforementioned cues, Pattern Recognition (Negligible use initially, but then used approxi- mately 75 percent of the time during Phase IV)--Although I used this perceptual mode very infrequently during the initial stages of the 68 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0 experiment, it emerged rather naturally toward the end. This was similar to the "direct knowing” but not isolated to a single button; rather, there was a sense of the next two to three buttons that would be the correct responses, These perceptual cues were obtained in a less objec~ tive/rational way and in more of a meditative state, highly concentrated but without specific focus on a particular button. Interestingly, in using this perceptual process, I was able to go somewhat faster and have greater access to all of the buttons in an equivalent way. Thus, this mode had the advantage of loosening habituated perceptual patterns but it also made selections less amenable to conscious control and testing. This process proved to be either highly accurate or highly inaccurate. Accuracy seemed to be a function of the degree to which I could become synchronized with the evolving pattern of machine selected choices-~-and it was easy to get out of phase/sequence with this pattern. Rational Guessing (Used approximately 5 percent of the time)--Al- though I virtually never did try to superimpose some rationally predicted pattern upon the random, machine selection of buttons, I would sometimes temper my selections (very seldom for the better) by noting that one button had come up too often for it to be likely on the next trial or, conversely, it had come up so seldom that it should be given special consideration as a likely possibility on the next trial. Again, although this was a tempting strategy, I found that random processes were not amenable to rational anticipations and my rational guesses seemed often to be wrong. Tension/Vector Analysis (Used approximately 75 percent of the time)-- Here the cue was manifested as a sense of tension(s) pulling in one direc- tion or another with the selection buttons as the locus for that tension, The cue was also manifested as a feeling of "emptiness" and conversely as a sense of "fullness." To describe this process further, it felt analogous 69 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000100430001-0