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•
As related
to ELINT/SIGINT - Descriptions
of signals transmitted
on covert
links;
decoding
of signals.
•
As related to LITINT
- More efficient data retrieval and
analysis
»
These uses
of RV have been exploited only to a limited extent
thus
far.
It
is with pointed-purpose that additional uses are rapidly becoming
integrated into the realm of possibility,
however, and
a fully-functioning
RV capability could
be expected to enhance intelligence assessments
as
diagrammed in Figure
4.
Thus,
in summary it would appear that:
RV could
be used to provide important verifying information
necessary to
judge
correctly a situation or event.
•
RV could be used
to
direct
the use
of
the more conventional
data source
collection systems
so that
the best
complement
of systems are available when and where needed,
A more
comprehensive study of
the integration of RV into the overall
intelligence mix
is
nearly completed and will
be presented in the following
report
,
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FIGURE
POTENTIAL
ENHANCEMENT
OF
INTELLIGENCE
ASSESSMENTS
DUE
TO
ADDITION
OF
RV
DATA
(U)
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Appendix
STATISTICAL PROCEDURE FOR FIRST-CUT ANALYSIS
OF CRV RESULTS
A precise measure
of the statistical significance of
a matrix
of
target /transcript
correspondences
is given by a direct-count-of-permutations
method of great generality.
It
is an exact
calculation method requiring
no approximations such as normality assumptions.
Furthermore, the judging
process
that went
into generating the matrix
is
not required to be inde-
pendent
transcript-to-transcript nor target-to-target
.
The only require-
ment
is
that no artifactual information is provided
as
to the order
of
targets and transcripts.
In particular,
it
can be shown that
if targets
are used with replacement
or are nonorthogonal
(the case here),
then the
method applies even in the
case in which there
is trial-by-trial feedback
and the target pool
is known a priori
to both remote viewer and interviewer.
Thus the possibility of interviewer
cueing or subject guessing based on
a
priori knowledge of the target pool
is handled at
a fundamental
level
by a statistical procedure
that assumes the worst.
The argument
is
as
follows #
In the absence
of knowledge
as
to which transcript was generated in
response
to which target,
one observes that
in setting up the target-
transcript matrix there are
nl
possible ways
to label the columns
(tran-
scripts),
given any particular order of the rows
(targets),
and vice versa
Thus,
there are
nl
possible matrices
that
could
be constructed from the
C
;
Scott
>
"°n the Evaluation of Verbal Material
in Parapsychology:
A
Discussion of Dr.
Pratt's monograph,"
Jour.
Soc.
Psych.
Res.,
Vol
.
46.
No.
752,
pp.
79-90
(June
1972),
"
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raw data,
all of them equally likely under
the null hypothesis that the
viewer's remote viewing attempts produce nothing but vague and general
descriptions and/or occasional chance correspondences with various target
sites.
Each matrix has
its associated sum on the matrix diagonal
corre-
sponding
to
a possible alignment
of targets.
The significance
level for the experiment
is then determined by
counting the number
of possible matrices
that would yield
a result
(diagonal sum)
equal
to or better than that obtained for the matrix
corresponding to the key,
and dividing by nl
This ratio gives
the
probability of obtaining by chance
a result equal to or better than that
obtained in the actual
judging process.
For
the results shown in Table
2 in the body of the
report
,
for
example, we
find,
by direct
computer
count
of the
5.
matrices obtained by interchanging columns,
that
the
probability of obtaining equal
or better matching by chance
is
p
= 1/5:
= 0.0083.
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