CPYRGHT
Approved For Release 2001/03/07
: CIA-kDP96-j0t08
0003-2
DREW MIDDLETON
m m m
—The firing ofa few hundred machine-gun
“huding boat, but it also di-
verts attention from some ofthe more sig-
nificantweapons and forces ofthe Iran-Iraq
war—a conflict in which the United
Stat^^«-or not^shington wishes to
!t>ls now deeply involved.
This involvement arises froni two cir-
First, America is giving armed
^^f^etotheei1 exports ofKuwait, a
:
^ate ttiatfromthe start ofthe Gulfwar has
°^ra<l’s fading supporters. Sec-
ond while ttus assistance continues, Iraq is
tree to continue its fairly successfulair-sea
offensive against Iran’s oil industry, which
i
supports Tehran’s war effort
'
We have notyet, ofcourse, experienced
wh>ch . if it comes,
is likely to be delivered by ChineseSilk-
‘
Those are a Chinese version
which was a highly sue-
al. Phase for All
A Silkworm missile is launched durina
weapon s 1,000-pound-plus warhead can
exercise in China. The
damage a large vessel.
-J»TSdentthat it h^^ftooktod’i
v'ert the missile once detected.
Will theSilkworm be used ?A normal
SOVernnwnf fanori with th„
= .—
i
j
•
oaui^aetense from that
counby’s^ee^amHawk missiles and old
SOVIRt SAM.
11... n
,
e original pur-
spoonftiiofsalt But reports from Western
“assfiSsssassss
sssenassssr
.
» '
w Ov * V* UUI^UI 111 1
•not a normal, rational one. Rattier it is ox
prone to “go for broke” and use the
rov
rmuiiig
duuilb Or WDat
terrorists
’ on it western frontier.
attackers are the Mujahedeen
<^’?^eoP^e s Warriors, who have
dad
wlfeiirheadquarteps in Bagh-
dad to have killed orwounded 4B00 Iranian
soldiers and officials in 94 foray! into west-
several
Iranian aiiny.
• ^hf^^ents ofthe problem are famil-
mr. The best ofIran’s regular troops are else-
where— threatening Basra, training for a
new offensive in the north. Raids bythe Muja-
hedeen must be met by poorly armed local
forces.Theraiders, usually striking at night,
The Mujahedeen’s objectives in the at-
tacks include the destruction ofarms and
supplies. Their leadei^iaasow! R^jam'
'
who helped overthrow the shah, knows that
the Iranian forces are running short of
modem weapons and in a recent statement
claimed that his forces had destroyed
equipmentworth millions ofdollars.
Fragmentary intelligence reports from
Iran and its neighbors indicate thatthe inter-
nal situation is vulnerable to this sort of
resistance activity. Although the Khomeini
regime’s police have ruthlessly quelled
any open signs ofdisturbance, these reports
speak ofwidespread disaffection among
two main groups.
The first is the urban middle class* De-
veloped underthe shah, it has lostjobs and
standing. Its members no longer enjoy
their old standard ofliving— not with lamh at
$35 a halfpound. Within this class, the Iib-
erated women ofthe shah’s era are the most
outspoken critics ofthe present regime.
The second group is made up ofthe
mothers and fathers ofthe “martyrs,” the
name commonly given to the youngmen
who have been killed inthe war with Iraq.
While there has neverbeen an official fig-
ure, some estimates mn as high as 600,000
dead.
The official government position is that
the parents are proud oftheir sons’ martyr-
dom. But the government has done nothing
financially forthe parents, whose loss ofsons
to till farms or run shops would be the
equivalent in our society to a loss ofSocial
Security oran old-age pension.
Exploitation ofthat situation by theMu-
jahedeen or even a decisive Iraqi victory, if
and when Tehran launches its much dis-
cussed “final offensive,” could bringdown
.per-