a ‘OE1 0 eos Cis 2a ° Wat S0801230 Cis fess 0 Laneioe SOL01 03 {Sneants rape etn Apa Lainsesl Qeias1 oO: B1ins0es0 SOS OS OS [SOB 02083 RWS LOS3020% SOS OS oF: Laos 1300 BONES T ease LftsdeG: SOSOP MUPPET OSOFP PPS OP POP SL SP Prosar rs SENSO SOSO7 PSP OF OLS os oSe SPP ORS VAGESOLOF SP USP PSP S01 PSOSOF ire ror ener sr od HeLSausar rr aoe oo SOSOP OP L2 F307 02 OWSPOLUSPPRPPSELOSST ONS Lorne esi ost OPP PSF PP SOP PP SL Por rare O2P est ose aoe APRORLSPPPPSOP S27 SOF POP SOP POF OFS OOF SOP SP OSOPSGEZLS OSL SSL 37 PP Or Sons reser H2O031 POOLS OI SOS1LSOS7 FP SS23 1 OF QPSLSEGRNSLEOSL OPE SOP LP Sor rer reds BOSPSEUSUEPPPSOSOL SOF SOF re Poss TPP Perso Sieirds MLSNGSr PPP PPL Sood Le Gos COUSPROP POSE POPPA OPP PSP PPP Peer er rrr rel SEL Saal sore SLPSPPP PPP OPP errr Le Or Lorre eer FeSO arr rr Or Sr CSL Serer rrr Oso errs Fr OoL3 APPT TOP EPP OL PP PrP er POSIT SPSL PPP ers WSLOS OS Loso SPPLIPEPOP PPP OLSOFL PSP LP Per ar rere ree re eos OSOSs 1 rot seo OSPR PPP PPP Pare OLoSr rr rr ear rr ore? TR SeOLSL St sosesoseo QHES0FP LEGLSOP RPP Peer err rl sol soete 3 OPP YFP POLO OES oL ges or Oar ster or so PPrris BOPLEF PP OSPF OPP POS PEP PBS 1 OF PP rere PRP POSLSOP PPP Pr rr ere reer se ae Geer BOSOP PPT LEO OSL SOS Sue Loser oi arr? Prvrrre a BLOSFPSE1LOLSOL St best b2roLrorrst 3131 SOLSEOLEOE SP SOR Pros TSu3Fr: SOLSOL SE OPP PPP SP eee eee eer oes LAPSLOBTSPSIP SSL PPE SL PP LSL Pree Perr LESS OLSOP FOP SSL SL OELSP PP SP isi rar rr se SLSPPP Perr rr err srr POSS LS de Ler ire rrr el OL: PSP PSL Pret rar eo re osu ore trois Ors ELLISPOLSLOFOLOF FEO SP Poser ror o BELsiy SLSOS20ST 22052122 LSP SPOPLOSSLOPPE OSL sor rgosesr rs LOSUF PLE SP SP TSOP sores OR sSe OST 0 SNS03 302 S125 153 082 L2T2Z1321 : PROPFPOLSP SEL ZO00SGSSSS1 30500 : Ba gp ost teas. ties Se patra ntindita we ee eet Ra £ : Figure 2.1 Subject 2 Color Choices for First Fifty Trials (0-yellow, 1-green, | 2-blue, 3-red, 7-pass) Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 : V7
EATER, carp amgrommorson € 20703123070231 7030303301 33703 30170102031 730730300330313713 01007777373707 30377717 377127337731 07707771 30777373773 20707370731 77737007703 7370002731 7777070 7777707 3777777 377773 01730330320370 33032 7013703013 3037170 3320730307377301 3023737203 037373730 337303217 32333771 73733707371 23/79737731303333370377 377 37071 73777377373270 131073037 377301033 3337073731 3707700 333737077307 3037 33331 3037 33707077707 33 03303773770 333733 7777077777327777301 027 337 333 0303037 200003773733777077377 33030332 33032 1332703232331 30121330 1070110130110! 313030230123 30070330072373003037 17771 37777033002 | 031 3373 737030003200030001003 302 332131000001 371303703037770 77201771 00770307237031 373101 37773771 77777303 33717101 7711371300217 333733030733 3071 7373717077 130117303707301 373370071 0330329302007 1027107377121270703 03231 327320373023770331110077700 33173707371071317331331730117207073 2713131 07327033277731177130323303 300037 33000 330037 10303071 339 . 30127001 333301 30777 3707737 3303377770770 0303703037073732311370710732001773 377 33070072000 7703003731 30003002 1 32002000300303770300731 723370 3070720702077 33070 33030303777377737377073 070777307037003777777077 31 707 3303073070 77770737373 00707737 3770030737 307777777073777711377737703000 7777 3333 13010371 32010717301002 720073723 3101310317001 300001 730073020 0377772007077310077070737 3007200730700700 30300007 1000002321 13002002 3031 301 3013201 30231033003 2301 2031301 20310311303120 3013023 1031737130730323001 31 301301301 3201 302101302303 1 3023103230371 3273031030130 » 3010310310773230313073021 33) 310313031737701373001330033777713 3130103031 0330307 377070037717003 02313033201 37001 37230201 330 0217373103101 30370007302 7777310373 137073107103702373132710331073703 331300301707 30107079037107370071 3 Figure 2.17 (Continued) $2 Color choices for Last 50 Trials “Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96- 00787R000200150011-4 18
AOmMawan Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R00020015001 1-4 . Yellow Green Blue Red - Total Times Chosen - 881 Al] 237 977 % of Total 35% 16.5% 9.5% 39% The first inclination is to try and determine how his strategy of choosing so many yellows and reds benefitted him. Examine the following table: Yellow Green Blue ~ Red - Oo Total Number of Hits 255 127 ké 292 % of Total Hits 38% 17% 8% 40% % of Success in Color 29% 31% 25% 30% . (Hits - Correct Choices) As can be seen his results with blue are significantly lower than the others. However, assuming the probability of success to be 25” and using the binomial distribution the expected value =69 and the standard deviation = 7. The inference from this is that the 60 Blue hits are not a statistical abnormality. However, it is curious that he did so much worse on his lowest preference. State Transition Color Choice This investigation consists of examining the states of the machine verses the choice on the next sample of the subject (i.e., if the machine shows "red" does the subject consistently choose one color on the next turn). Consider the following table: geese ' Machine MACH Yellow Green Blue - Red Pass % Pass Yellow 106 n9 «69 314s 210 26% Green 177 25 69 316 252 30% Blue Z| | 99 27 198 302 35% _ Red 322 157 65 97 218 25% pe 1 BO Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R00020015001 1-4 19
A-M2HIeoOYr=z NMSZzHTtoprz Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 ~The subject obviously avoids repeats (i.e., he assumes the machine ~ won't repeat a color) which, based on the machine data analysis, isn't a strategy which would give him a statistical advantage. Previous analysis showed that identify transitions are approximately equally probable as _nonidentity. Notice also that he passes 35% of the time after seeing a blue. The same state transitions are shown below separated by machine. . Yellow Yellow | | 4g Green 62 Biue | 105 Red | 133 Yel low 58 Green 115 Blue | 136 Red 189 Green Blue 49 25 13 35 36 10 72 30 weay 7 70 44 12 34 63 17 85 35 Red 150 153 78 58 164 163 120 39 Pass 83 83 115° 64 The negative state transition (i.e., relationship of the subject color choice to the machine state on the next sample) is considered too bizarre of a concept to be presented in this section. is found in the section entitled "miscellaneous" Approved For Release 2003/04/1 Results of that investigation 8 ; CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 20
Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150011-4 Hit Analysis This section is significantly more important than the randomization analysis of the machine data. The reason is that if he is not learning from the machine or he is not taking advantage of biases then the discovery of such non-randomness is of little value to the overall analysis. Learning.from Trial to Trial | The question of whether the subject learned from trial to trial can best be answered by examining the following three plots. The first is the number of hits vs. the trial number, the second is a frequency distribution of the number of trials vs. number of hits, the third is the accumulated probability vs. the trial number. Approved For Release 2003/04/182ICIA-RDP96-00787R0002001 5001 1-4