datamatters24/research-document-archive huggingface dataset:
TASK @ Approved For Release 200288 Rip BM RDP96-00789R003000230002-4 S (oB JA 5 "(S/NF) KIA: Use of chemical weapons by Iraq against U.S. and coalition forces in Saudi Arabia will NOT OCCUR in the near future (3-4 weeks). A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response. ) (1) Yes (2) No @) Unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.) (A) Major Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value 4 (4) Low Value . | Dye (5) No Value | | pu ue C. Provide additional comnents/rationale, if desired. (Optional) Se eS Te Bo oa hse ont a ata —“ as Spe cd ae npionee ond whee My Teg D NAME OFFICE WOT RELEASABLE 70 FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release ELC Tou comss corp sssipotes, Ze Ae ea)
SG1C Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2 Next 10 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2
Approved For Release 20086 (MQ EIK-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2 8. "(S/NE) KIA: Hostages have been neither tortured nor well-treated. A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes (2) No nsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.) (1) Major Significance 2) Bit Value (3) Of Value (4) Low Value ' (5) No Value C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) NAME OFFICE NOT RELEASABLE TQ FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 20 AA-RDP9 3000230002-2
SG1C Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2 Next 6 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2
Approved For Re
ase 2001/03/07
: CIA-RDR96-00789R003200160001-9
TABLES (U)
(U)
PAS Reference Groups of Precalibrated Viewers.
(U)
Cluster Analysis of
14 Precalibrated Viewers
.
.
(U)
Results of SRI RV Trainees
*'
/Results of the
^ RV Trainees
.
Approved For Relea e 2001/03/07
CIA-RDP9jfe-00789R0032001 60001 -9
Approved For Release 20b3foG}f2E ¢1a-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2 . -_ * a 13. (S/NF) KIA: Fuel-air explosives will not be used in the near future (i.e., next 3-4 weeks). A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes ((2}) No (3) Unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response. ) (1})MaJor Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value (4) Low Value (5) No Value C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) Dry com lee paves) ty War FARE wa wll a. hy rdrramd tos Wn oro beh Ochi Cres f NAME OFFICE NOT RELEASABLE 76 FOREIGN NATIONALS Cpyperdie t'Cve 7 Approved For Release poobeltfeels.roiKe 9R003000230002-2
’ Approved For Release 2009s ftola-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2 “ 14.' (S/NF) KIA: There are indications that the Iraqis will possibly use fuel-air explosives in the 8 November 1990 time frame. A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes ((2))no (3) Unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.) (1) Major Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value (4) Low Value ‘ DB) No Value C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) 4 is how A Nay SS RSP ry PS pS NAME OFFICE NOT RELEASABLE 70 FORE, an NATIONALS Approved For Release oodtelh Eh -eopes-464 003000230002-2
SG1C Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2 Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2
Approved For Release 2002/0 EX FFPDP96-00789R003000230002-2 OTHER TASK RESPONSES By DT-S (S/NF) Other Data: On 22 October 1990, the following information was provided that may be of interest, although not directly related to tasking: a. Egypt will play a significant role in future peace negotiations. b. The U.N. will continue to increase its role in negotiations. c. A name "Camaru/Kamaru" is important (presumably in regard to peace negotiations). d. More hostages will be released during November 1990. (U) DB Assessment and DT~3 Evaluation Response: (Appendices A thru D.) Classified by. Declassity on. OAD £ _ AY *7LEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 2002f9f 9 R§iq-RDPs6-00789R003000230002-2 Cue &§
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000430001-1 II METHOD OF APPROACH A. Hardware Considerations 1, Detector Instrumentation During FY 1986, the necessary detector apparatus was specified and purchased or fabricated. This equipment has now been tested for use in the proposed RA experiment and has been modified or improved where necessary. Figure 2 shows the schematic arrangement of the apparatus. The activity level of the radioactive source has been verified with a Vacuum Chamber Position Sensitive Detecto @-source and collimators Detector Preamps CAMAC Crate LSI 11/23 and Pulse—Processing Host Computer and Modules CAMAC Interface FIGURE 2. SINGLE a-PARTICLE RA APPARATUS Geiger-Mueller Tube detector system with an appropriate thin entry window. It is in the range of ~100 cts/s, which will be adequate for the the experiment. The operation of the multiple strip detector system has also been tested with a single channel preamplifier unit and Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000430001-1
Approved For Release 200206: GREA-Rop96-00789R003000230002-2 » 16. (S/NF) KIA: Egypt will play a significant role in future peace negotiations. A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response. ) (()) res (2) No (3) Unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response. ) (1) Major Significance (2) High Value (3) OF Value (a) Low Value (5) No Value C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) Shodd lee Ais te otarvtns te WM diac : .=7- ay eneineeemnemnenemnemmmemrncrerorm NAME OFFICE (U) Evaluation: Confirmed. (U) Follow-on Action: None.’ NOT RELEASABLE TC FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release oR Eh. RDP96- 3000230002- a
Approved For Release 2008 {8} PECTA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2 . a ar “17. (S/NF) KIA: The UN will continue to increase its role in negotiations. A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes (2) No 43)) unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.) (1) Major Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value ((4))Low Value ,. (5) No Value C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) NAME OFFICE (U) Evaluation: Confirmed. (U) Follow-on Action: None. NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONA! Approved For Release robb Ein roves oof ROLES 4
Approved For Release sooanle RET eorsehoresncos0002s0002-2 | 18.:(S/NF) KIA: A name "Camaru/Kamaru" is important (presumably in regard to peace negotiations). A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes (2) No (S)yunsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.) (1) Major Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value (4) Low Value ' , ((5)) No Value Wh, ttrever C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) NAM OFFICE (U) Evaluation: Unconfirmed. (U) Follow-on Action:. None. NOT RELEASABLE 10 FOREIGN NATIONALS LO Ae Ene’ § Approved For Release abbh ETia-eopos.co7eK CLS c
Approved For Release 2002/SHI@ Rial rop9s-00789R003000230002-2 + 19.'(S/NF) KIA: More hostages will be released during November 1990. A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1)) Yes (3) Unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.) (1) Major Significance (2) High Value (3) OF Value (4) Low Value ° ((s})no Value C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) NAME OFFICE (U) Evaluation: Confirmed. (S/NF) Follow-on Action: DT-S should be requested to update and to focus on the heease of U.S. hostages prior to 15 January 1991 deadline for Iraq to leave uwait. NOT RELEASABLE 70 FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release oS Tin novec.sordclihefssressbopD Ds Ene x
Approved For Release 20§[S6RE5iA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2
•
*
*
13.
(S/NF)
KIA:
Fuel -air explosives will
not be used
in the near future
(i.e.,
next 3-4 weeks).
A.
Is the assessment accurate?
(Circle response.)
(1)
Yes
©No
(3) Unsure
B.
What
is the value of the KIA?
(Circle response.)
((lT)Major Significance
(2)
High Value
(3) Of Value
(4)
Low Value
(5)
No Value
C.
Provide additional
comments/ratlonale,
if desired.
(Optional)
D.
NAME
OFFICE
Approved For Release 200
NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
-RDP96,
9R003000230002-2
SG1C Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2 Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003700850004-5 Sw tt ESE _ eon me AT? ns RiP Lair s Give? S402. wo) Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003700850004-5
v/
or"-
Approved For Release 200mss
7T&& c.
-RDP96-00789R003000230002-|^
£
4.
(S/NF)
KIA:
Use of chemical
weapons by Iraq against U.S.
and coalition
forces
In Saudi Arabia will
NOT OCCUR
in the near future
(3-4 weeks).
A.
Is the assessment accurate?
(Circle response.)
(1)
Yes
(2) No
((3} Unsure
B.
What
is the value of the KIA?
(Circle response.)
Qlj /Major Significance
(2) High Value
(3) Of Value
•
(4)
Low Value
(5)
No Value
^
C.
Provide additional
comments/rationale,
if desired.
(Optional)
/«
fodv&b-)
bjf'
rjlcm.— -y
a
*n**e\
0SJL.
A.
j
ur*~lP
U+* ^Ci
PlJU)
cu) u4y*
Tty
D.
/MU.
NAME
OFFICE
NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
Approved For Release
fi
TciA-RDP96-007:
SG1C Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2 Next 10 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2
Approved For Release 2008&RET
-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2
*
'
*
«
8.
(S/NF)
KIA:
Hostages have been neither tortured nor well-treated.
A.
Is the assessment accurate?
(Circle response.)
(1)
Yes
(2) No
C^^Hnsure
B.
What
Is the value of the KIA?
(Circle response.)
(1) Major Significance
*\^2)^gh Value
(3) Of Value
(4)
Low Value
(5) No Value
C.
Provide additional
comments/rationale,
if desired.
(Optional)
D.
NAME
OFFICE
NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
Approved For Release 20
A-RDP9
SG1C Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2 Next 6 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000230002-2
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000430001-1 IV REFERENCES 1. May, E. C., Humphrey, B. S., and Hubbard, G. S., “Electronic System Perturbation Techniques,” Final Technical Report, Project 8585, SRI International, Menlo Park, California (30 September 1980). 2. Hubbard, G. S., and Isaacs, J. I., “An Experiment to Examine the Possible Existence of Remote Action Effects in Piezoelectric Strain Gauges,” Final Technical Report, Project 1291, SRI International, Menlo Park, California (December 1986). . 3. Wells, R. A., and Watkins, G. K., “Linger Effects in Several PK Experiments,” Research in Parapsychology, pp. 143-147, Scarecrow Press, Metuchen, New Jersey (1974). 4, Stanford, R. G., “Experimental Psychokinesis: A Review From Diverse Perspectives,” in Handbook of Parapsychology (Wolman, Ed.), p. 335, Van Nostrand, New York (1977). Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000430001-1
/ Technical Protocol for the MEG Investigation / Approved For Release 2003/09/09 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000260001-0 f , In general the effect size, £, may be defined as: Zz e=s-e, In (3) where n is the sample size. Let ac be the empirically derived effect size for anomalous cognition (AC). Thenz4c=pac in Figure 3 is computed from Equation 3. From Figure 3 we see that power is defined by: Power = —1 | P| aa) dg (4) Oye V2 ; 2c Let z= oc - Hac 9x4 Then Equation 4 becomes @ ped z- Power = —L | e7952"dz, where z', = —2— HAC. (5) Jax Sac Ze For planning purposes, it is convenient to invert Equation 5 to determine the number of trials that are necessary to achieve a given power under the Hy hypothesis. If we define z(P) to be the z-score asso- ciated with a power, P then the number of trials required is given by: 4z4P) n=” (6) Ac where t,c is the estimated mean value for the effect size under H;. Figure 4 shows the power, calcu- lated from Equation 5, for various effect sizes for z, = 1.645. io j : 2 : Trials Figure 4. Statistical Power for Various Effect Sizes Approved For Release 2003/09/09 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000260001-0 16
Technical Protocol for the MEG Investigation
Approved For Release 2003/09/09
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003000260001-0
V REVIEW OF STATISTICAL POWER
x s fig + 1
• 645a0,
where po and ao are the mean and standard deviation of the parent Ho distribution, is less than or equal
to 0.05.
Figure 3 shows these definitions in graphical form under the assumption of normality. The Z-Score ,s a
normalized representation of the dependent variable and is given by:
(* ~
i“o)
z ~
o0
’
whereX is the value of the dependent variable and po and o0 are the mean and standard
£
ivelv of ,he parent distribution under Ho, and %
is the mmunum value (i.e„ 1.645) required
XmftcaL (one-tailed). The)mean,ofa,under:Ho-is:rero. Theimean:andittandard devtauon of z under
Hi are pac anc^ °ACi respectively.
Approved For Release 2003/09/09
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003000260001-0
r
Technical Protocol for the MEG Investigation
Approved For Release 2003/09/09
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003000260001-0
In general the effect size, e, may be defined as:
£
(3)
where n is the sample size. Let eac be the empirically derived effect size for anomalous cognition (AC).
Thenz^c— ac i fi Figure 3 is computed from Equation 3. From Figure 3 we see that power is defined by:
Power
(4)
Let
z =
Then Equation 4 becomes
Power
where z' c =
Zc _ ^AC
.
°AC
(5)
For planning purposes, it is convenient to invert Equation 5 to determine the number of trials that are
necessary to achieve a given power under the Hi hypothesis.
If we define z(P) to be the z-score asso-
ciated with a power, P, then the number of trials required is given by:
n
(6 )
where eac is the estimated mean value for the effect size under Hi. Figure 4 shows the power, calcu-
lated from Equation 5, for various effect sizes for ^ = 1.645.
Figure 4.
Statistical Power for Various Effect Sizes
Approved For Release 2003/09/09
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003000260001-0
PeriodiBRHOY Re bat Gnense 2PNS/99Bi CIA-RDP96-00789R00309128990676. 406 —Xx Research of Anomalous Mental Phenomena Author: Edwin C. May, Ph.D. 1 November 1991 — A a a —/— . | z= eT GE Va: Science Applications International Corporation An Employee-Owned Company Presented to: U.S. Government Contract MDA908—91—C—0037 (Client Private) Submitted by: Science Applications International Corporation Cognitive Sciences Laboratory 1010 El Camino Real, Suite 330, P.O. Box 1412, Menlo Park, CA 94025 * (415) 325-8292 Otter SAIC RS PrOVeEE OP REISE 2003/09/09 CIN RDPISVOTSIROVIVOIZEOGU TS He”
ReseARR'OMRAG RIA ASRLEPPRAUAAS'A-ROP96-00789R003000280001-8 | OBJECTIVE a rl The objective of this document is to provide a periodic status report for research and analysis of anoma- lous mental phenomena.* —— * This report constitutes the deliverable DI~MGHT-80227 under contract number MDA908-—91—C—0037. Approved For Release 2003/09/09 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000280001-8 j
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003000430001-1
IV REFERENCES
1.
May, E. C., Humphrey, B.
S., and Hubbard, G.
S., “Electronic System Perturbation
Techniques,” Final Technical Report, Project 8585, SRI International, Menlo Park,
California
(30 September 1980).
2.
Hubbard, G.
S., and Isaacs,
J.
I., “An Experiment to Examine the Possible Existence of
Remote Action Effects in Piezoelectric Strain Gauges,” Final Technical Report,
Project
1291, SRI International, Menlo Park, California (December 1986).
3.
Wells,
R. A., and Watkins, G. K., “Linger Effects in Several PK Experiments,”
Research in Parapsychology, pp. 143-147, Scarecrow Press, Metuchen, New Jersey
(1974).
4.
Stanford,
R. G., “Experimental Psychokinesis: A Review From Diverse Perspectives,”
in
Handbook of Parapsychology (Wolman, Ed.),
p.
335, Van Nostrand, New York (1977).
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003000430001-1
Approved For Release 2003/09/11 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003300500004-7 CF (stv rund i fpnoeh TIP Teo porns spe Mo” THe se et (C- STAO r7G > Ue STALDY cm3nG QUiCF ek ULovrl TR oo ant TBO Cie Co Braet Approved For Release 2003/09/11 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003300500004-7
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003000390005-2
(D)
To what
extent
will
the Government furnish the office or working
space,
facilities,
equipment,
and supplies necessary
for contract
perf ormance?
None required.
4.
ADMINISTRATION OF THE CONTRACT
(A)
To what
extent are contractor employees used
interchangeably with
Government personnel
to perform the same functions?
Not at
all.
(B)
To what extent are the contractor employees integrated
into the
Government's organizational
structure?
Not
at
al 1
.
(C)
To what extent are any
of
the elements
in
(2)
and
(3)
above
present
in the administration
of the contract,
regardless
of whether
they are provided for by the terms of
the contract?
Not at all.
5.
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
(A)
Is the requirement the result of
an unsolicited proposal?
If
so,
describe.
No.
(B)
If
the procurement
is sole source,
why
is
it sole
source':-'
The proposed contractor has unique personnel
and proprietary approaches
to this area as discussed
in
1(B).
(C)
What
is the potential
for follow-on procurement?
There is some potential
for follow-on procurement depending
on the
nature and extent
of achievements
in the subject
area.
The current
state of this field of study is judged to be on the threshold
of
breakthroughs which would radically change the nature
of
this
requirement.
(D)
If
it
is significant,
will
the Government become irrevocably
committed to sole source procurement?
Not
1 i kel y.
If
anticip at ed developments materialize this field
of
study, coul d become much more popular with
a greater number
of
contractors and academic institutions.
Page 3 of
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003000390005-2
Approved For Release 2000/08/08!
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003000300001-5
Fnenomenoiogical Research ana Analysis
4.2 CLIN 1 — Research ($1,062,760 k)
The remaining items left to perform on the statement of work will be completed on this CLIN.
Table 2.
Total Project Financial History
-1 :
• -M*
••
:
;
I:
:
i :&pbh||||||||§|||||!|
1 March 1991
$6,812
29 March 1991
$34,528
26 April 1991
$60,232
24 May 1991
$92,813
21 June 1991
$115,303
19 July 1991
$151,531
16 August 1991
$177,491
13 September 1991
$215,398
11 October 1991
$244,112
08 November 1991
$309,198
06 December 1991
$387,474
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003000300001-5
SGFOIA2 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000300001-5 Next 2 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000300001-5
UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT Approved For Release 2000/08/08 ; CIA-RDP96-00789R003000370001-8 pare: 30 July 1991 “ariNor:  DT-S . sumect: Reallocation of R&D Funds (U) THRU : DT-5A To: DT Ref: DIA/DT Contract MDA908~-91-C-0037. secneT MeEMorandum -20,566/DT-S 1. (U) We have conducted a review of the financial status of the referenced phenomenological research contract that was recently let to the Systems Applications International Corporation (SAIC). As a result of negotiations between SAIC and RSQ on 28 June 1991, at least $30K of the $1.5 million R&D funding for this effort was not required by SAIC. 2. (U) In reviewing options for this uncommitted funding, we have identified an aspect of the overall phenomenological SG1D research activity that in fact be pursued by the This $30K of R&D SG1D a would permit a i a previously-initiated sensor evaluation effort sponsored by DIA/DT, and would focus on an aspect of the Congressionally Directed phenomenological research effort that SAIC could not pursue at this time. SG1D 3. (S/NF) Consequently, DT-~S recommends that this $30K be provided to for unique sensor/ phenomenological interaction investigations. This effort has direct relevance to DIA'ts overall phenomenological research program and could lead to significant insight regarding phenomena understanding and underlying mechanisms. 4. (U) A statement of work for this proposed effort will be forwarded separately. T—S Branch Chief SG1J CLASSIFIED BY: DIA/DT DECLASSIFY ON: OADR SECRET/NOFORN Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003000370001-8 OPTIONAL FORM NO. 10 (REV. 1-80) GSA FPMR (41 CFR) 101-11.6 SO10-114
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
; CIA-RDP96-00789R003000370001-8
UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT
DATE:
30 July 1991
SECRET
REPLY TO
ATTN OF:
DT-S
SUBJECT:
Reallocation of R&D Funds
(U)
THRU:
DT-5A
TO:
DT
Ref
:
DIA/DT Contract MDA908—91-C-0037
.
secret memorandum
S-20, 566/DT-S
SG1D
SG1D
SG1D
1.
(U)
We have conducted a review of the financial status of
the referenced phenomenological research contract that was
recently let to the Systems Applications International
Corporation
(SAIC)
.
As a result of negotiations between SAIC
and RSQ on 28 June 1991,
at least $30K of the $1.5 S??on R8D
funding for this effort was not required by SAIC.
reviewing options for this uncommitted funding,
we
have identified an aspect of the overall phenomenological5
research activitv that
r-an
in
pursued by the^
on
n
an
r
ain^?
at
i°?h
efJ0rt Spo?sored bY DIA/DT,
and would focus
on an aspect of the Congressionally Directed phenomenological
research effort that SAIC could not pursue at this time.
3 *
Consequently,
DT-S recommends that this
$3 OK be
P5f^ded bo
for unique sensor/
phenomenological interaction investigations .
This effort has
direct relevance to DIA’s overall phenomenological research
program and could lead to significant insight regarding
phenomena understanding and underlying mechanisms.
4.
(U)
A statement of work for this proposed effort will be
forwarded separately.
SGI J
Branch Chief
CLASSIFIED BY:
DIA/DT
DECLASSIFY ON:
OADR
SECRET/nOFORn
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003000370001-8
OPTIONAL FORM NO. 10
{REV. 1-80)
GSA FPMR (41 CFR) 101-11.6
5010-114
fr Le =a aon rene oo I Approved For Release 2001/04/07 : CIA-RDP96-90789R003200160001-9 e. (U) Record (U) The date, target pair, intended target, and the response were tabulated for later analysis (see Table 4). f. (U) Analysis (U) A single p-value and effect size were calculated from the data shown in Table 4. g. (U) Results ; Table 4 shows the targets that were used and the results for the 50-trial formal series. There were 38 hits, corresponding to a hit rate of 76% (p < 1.53 x 10-4) and an effect size of 0.51. The hit rate is consistent with that observed using strategies 537 and 537B, and the effect size is nearly double that obtained during the fiducial run at the end of FY 1986. If it is assumed that the hit rate of 64% is the actual hit rate, then there has been a significant increase (p < 0.038) since FY 1986. The one-sided confidence interval (95%) is 66%, which is greater than the fiducial value of 64%. 18 Approved For Release 2001198107 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9
rrr Approved For Release 2001/63/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9 Table 4 (U) RECORD SHEET FOR THE FORMAL EXPERIMENT Xx Xx Xx x Xx x X x x X x Xx x x x D4 x 19 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9
A Approved For Release 2001/0307 : ciA-RDPa60789R003200160001-9 Table 4, Continued (U) RECORD SHEET FOR THE FORMAL EXPERIMENT Target Choice Response Hit 20 Approved For Release sobre : munceopbe.0074sn0032001600048