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IV METHOD OF APPROACH (U)
A.
(U)
Overview
(U)
To accomplish the object of this
effort, we used a group of 19 “calibrated” remote
viewers as “baseline” indications of personality types for individuals who are likely to be
good remote viewers.
All
19 viewers were scored on a self-report inventory and on a
performance measure.
(Details of both are described below.)
Item analysis was conducted
to determine
if there were any above-chance groupings of individuals in accordance with
their RV abilities.
By comparing the results of the performance measures with those of the
self-report inventories, we considered the possibility of correlations between the two
techniques.
i
k
The next stage was to administer the same tests to
all SRI,
|
and Mobius Society personnel currently involved in RV.
On the basis of the
test
results, predictions were made as to the individuals’ RV abilities.
(U)
As a
test of correlations between self-report inventories and RV abilities
in the
“general” population, we conducted item analysis upon 3081 responses collected by the
Mobius Society.
(U)
To determine
if Neurolinguistic Programming (NLP) could
assist
in the search
for
personality correlates to RV, we asked Dr. Nevin Lantz to provide us with a detailed analysis
with particular focus upon applications for psychoenergetic research.
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Tr,«r
I INTRODUCTION (U)
A.
(U) Overview
“It. has been claimed by
the parapsychological community that
certain people’ can search for and locate water,
oil,
minerals,
objects,
individuals,
sites of archaeological
significance,
and
so
forth.
This
purported ability
is most often referred
to as
"dowsing"
in the Western
literature ,(
* In this report, t we
shall refer
to
"search."
If
"search"
can be demonstrated
to be
it can be applied
potential contribution
such techniques
simply as
a genuine ability,
and
if
'
then we may have a
(U)
This
ability can be contrasted to the related remote viewing ability in the following
manner.
In remote viewing, the viewer is given location information (e.g., coordinates, a beacon
agent, or a picture), then asked to provide data on target content.
In “search,” the viewer
is
given information on target content, then asked
to provide location data
(e.g.,
position on
a
map)
.
The two functions thus complement each other.
* (U)
For a comprehensive survey of the claims for dowsing, see Christopher Bird. The
Divining Hand,
E.
P. Dutton, New York, New York (1979).
t(U)
This report constitutes the deliverable for Objective D, Task
1 and Objective G, Task
1.
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(U) To
see
whether
or not
this
purported
“search”
ability
could be
brought under
laboratory
control,
a computer-assisted search (CAS)
routine was developed.
This
routine
consists of the following elements:
(1) A finite matrix of possible target locations
(e.g., a 20 x 20 graphics matrix grid)
from which one
cell
is randomly selected by the computer as the target.
(2)
An individual whose task is to "scan” the graphics display area with a computer
mouse, and indicate, by pressing the button on the mouse, his/her choice as to
the target location.
(3) A feedback mechanism that displays the response and actual target location.
(4)
An
a
priori
defined
analysis
procedure
to
compare
the
targets
with
the
responses.
B.
(U) Background
(U)
Using this general procedure, an experiment was conducted during FY 1984 in which
two conditions were tested simultaneously:
1 *
#
• The
target
remains
fixed
in
space
for
the
duration
of
the
trial
(space
condition).
• The target
is rapidly moving to various locations, so that the subject must push
the button at exactly the right time (time condition).
^ Seven subjects,
who were blind
to
the space/time condition,
were each asked
to contribute
50 trials
(25
space,
time).
Five of
them
produced independently significant results:
three
in time only and
two
in
space only.
No participant was successful
at both space and time
conditions
.
(0) A
larger pool
of
subjects
was used
to
try
to
replicate
this
finding
in FY
1986.
Participants were chosen on the basis of interest and availability, and included both experienced
and novice subjects.
As in the FY 1984 experiment, each subject contributed 25
trials under
each of the two conditions, space and time, and were blind to the condition in force
for each
trial.
Mpst subjects were unaware that there were two conditions.
t'r
“
j
Thirty-six subjects participated
in the FY 1986 experiment.
Results were analyzed by separating the
trials collected under the two
conditions,
as before.
Six subjects attained significant results
(p <
0.05)
in
the
time condition,
and
two
in
the space condition.
The smallest
(U)
References are
listed at the end of this report.
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attained p-value was
0.0001.
The probability of obtaining such an extreme
result,
with
72 separate tests
(36
in each condition),
is 0.007.
{The
appropriate formula for
this
is
[1
-
(1
- 0.0001) 72 ],
where
in general
the
smallest p-value
in an experiment with n separate
tests
is used
instead of
0.0001,
and n
is used
in place of
72.
}
'
< In both years of testing,
no participant
scored significant
hits
in both
the
time and space conditions.
(There were
two subjects
in FY
1986 who scored significantly
in
the direction of missing the target under
both conditions.)
This observation led
to
the question of whether or not
talented subjects bifurcated
into two groups:
those who could search over
a spatial area,
and those who could push
the button at just
the right
time.
A follow-up experiment was proposed
in FY 1986
to
test
this.
’
_
, Eleven subjects who had done well
in
the original FY 1986
experiment were asked
to participate
in a
"single condition" experiment
in
which
they would search under only
the condition for which they had scored
well.
Thus,
those who scored better
in time were
told
of
this
fact,
and
were
told that
the
target was constantly moving.
Similarly,
those who had
done well with a fixed target were tested only under
this condition,
and
were explicitly told
that
the target was
stationary.
Eight subjects
completed this experiment.
Results from this single condition experiment
proved
to be nonsignificant
for all
subjects.
C.
(U)
Experiments for FY 1987
(U)
Since the FY 1984 and the
original FY
1986 experiments had shown evidence of
“search"
ability, and since the only change in the follow-up FY 1986 experiment had been to
remove
the random
assignment
of
the
space
and
time
condition,
it
was
decided
that
an
experiment should be conducted in FY 1987
in which the random space and time conditions
were
again
used.
This
will
be
further
discussed
in
this
report,
under
the
title
of
“Computer-Assisted Search Experiment.”
(U) As another test of “search”
ability, an experiment was conducted during FY 1987
with a group of five self-proclaimed dowsers. The purpose of this experiment was to see
if any of
these
individuals
could come
closer than
expected
by
chance
to
locating
a
shipwreck, by
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(U)
In our experiment,
a bounded area representing the perimeter of a 20 x 20
cell
matrix was shown to the
participant, with the additional option of having the 400
individual
squares of the grid displayed.
Figure
1 shows the display with the grid option.
The participant
was tolcj that the target could be anywhere within the square, and that he/she should move the
cursor kround, and push the button on the mouse when the moment “seemed
right.”
The
computer was programmed to give immediate feedback to the participant following each trial by
automatically displaying the target cell as a filled square and the participant's choice as a shaded
square, with a line connecting the two
(see Figure
1).
After several seconds of the feedback
display; the computer recycled to the next
trial.
Coordinates of the target and response were
stored for future analysis.
sIs
|
I
!
I
!
i
i
I
a
1s
B
!
UNCLASSIFIED
FIGURE
(U) SEARCH MATRIX COMPUTER DISPLAY WITH FEEDBACK
B.
(U) The Atocha Experiment
<;
~\to take the search task out
of
the
laboratory,
five
self-proclaimed dowsers were asked
to participate
in an experiment
to
see
if any of them could find an object by searching a map.
(One of
them,
Viewer
198,
has been part
of
the SRI Psychoenergetics Project
since
1984.
At times he/she has performed excellently
in
real-world laboratory search tasks.
However,
his/her overall performance
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'toTbeen mixed.)
The object used for
the experiment was the wreck of
a
Spanish galleon,
Nuestra Senora de Atocha, which sank during a hurricane m
1622.
The wreckage was
found off
the coast
of Key West,
Florida,
on
July,
1985.
It was selected as
the target
for
this experiment because,
although
its
location was already known,
the considerable wealth
it
contained and
its fascinating historical background made
it something that
would have been worth searching
for.
The purpose of
this
task was
to
simulate
a situation
in which the searchers would be excited about
finding
the target because of
its value.
Of course
the experiment was designed
in
such
a way that knowing the actual
location of
the wreckage would not help
the searchers succeed
in
the experiment.
1.
(U)
Preliminary Activities
(U) To create a high level of interest in the experiment, SRI personnel visited Florida
and conducted two preliminary
activities.
First, they accompanied Viewer 198
to the Atocha
museum and discussed the experiment and the Atocha history
in detail with him/her.
Later,
before beginning the experimental trials, Viewer 198
showed a National Geographic videotape
of the search for the Atocha to the other four participants.
(U) The second preliminary
activity was to conduct a few real-world search
trials
with Viewer 198,
for a less important, but known, Spanish galleon wreck, the San Pedro.
For
these trials the location of the San Pedro wreck was marked on a map.
Three white paper disks,
scaled to correspond to 5,000 yards in diameter (6.34 square miles), were randomly keyed to the
map and marked with a secret orientation code so that the experimenter could later rematch
them to the map. The actual map location of the San Pedro was constrained to be somewhere on
each of the three disks.
(U) To add to the excitement of the task, the data were collected while Viewer 198
and the SRI personnel were in a vessel anchored directly above the wreck.
Viewer 198 was given
the three disks and asked to mark on each of them the spot where he/she felt the wreck and thus
his/her current location were. We had hoped that “searching”
for yourself as a beacon would
contribute to the success of the
trial.
(U) Each disk was rematched to the map and the center of gravity (CG) for the three
responses was calculated.
Viewer 198's CG corresponded to a spot 500 yards from the wreck.
If
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!
UL
: search" had been initiated at Viewer 198’s spot, a 96% reduction in search area would
have been realized over starting at a random location.
Encouraged by
this demonstration
trial, we proceeded with the search
for the
(U)
Atocha.
i.
(U) Experimental Details
(U) The five participants in the Atocha experiment conducted their searches in group
meetings
at one participant’s home.
During each weekly meeting, each subject attempted
five
guesses. These were recorded by filling in a square on a piece of paper containing a 20 x 20 grid
similar to that shown in Figure
1.
These responses were then mailed to SRI International for
evaluation.
Previous to the time of the meeting, an experimenter at SRI had generated a target
square
for
each
participant,
for
each
of
the
trials.
This
was
done
using
a
computer
randomization scheme to select one of the 400 squares in the grid.
To simulate real conditions
as much as possible, the grid was placed on a map of the Key West area with the targe, square
centered on the spot where the Mocha had been found.
Thus, each week there were five such
grids, ordered numerically by trial number,
for each participant.
If the participant filled ,n the
correct square on a given response grid, then when the grid used for that trial was placed on the
map. the response would be directly over the spot where the Mocha was found.
(U) The
experiment
was
initially
scheduled
to
run
for
five
weeks,
with
each
participant contributing a total of 25
trials.
However, at the end of that period the participants
submitted and were granted a request to repeat the experiment, so the entire experiment consists
of twt> sets of 25
trials for each subject.
C.
(U)
Analysis
(U)
In both the CAS and the Mocha experiments,
the
basic unit of data
for
analysis
consisted
of
sets
of 25
target/response
pairs. Within each
pair,
die data recorded were
the
coordinates of the targe, and the response from their locations on the 20 x 20 grid.
In the CAS
experiment, each of the eight subjects contributed one such set in the time condition and one m
the space condition.
For the Mocha experiment, each of the five subjects contributed two sets,
one during each of the two five-week periods in the experiment.
interest Is Aether or not the information provided by the participant
the question of
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Table
(concluded)
Major Keyword
Subtopic Keyword
Miscellaneous—Encompasses
all
publications
that were determined
to possess
little or no
immediate
| interest
(e .g .
,
"hauntings," detection
of
the
human aura,
and
so
forth)
No subtopics
as
yet implemented
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JJ
woultf help reduce
the
time needed to find the
target.
This
is equivalent
to reducing the area over which
it
is necessary
to search before
the
target
is
located.
(U) Assume that in the absence of any information, a search would proceed by randomly
selecting a square on the grid and searching that square.
If the target
is not found, then the
squares
closest
to
the
original
one
are
searched,
in
random
order.
This
continues,
by
progressively moving away from the original square, until the target is found.
At each stage, the
set of squares equidistant from the original one, which have not yet been searched, are selected
in rahdom order and searched.
(U) To analyze the success of these experiments, the average time required to find the
target using this procedure with the subject’s guess as the starting point should be compared to
the average time required using a random starting point.
t
(U) The number of squares that must be searched could range anywhere from one
(if the
target
is
in the
original starting square),
to the
total number of squares, which
is 400
for our
experiments.
In the absence of any information, and assuming that the target
is equally likely to
be arjywhere in the grid, the probability that exactly s squares must be searched
is 1/400, for any
integer value of s from one to 400.
In other words,
s follows what
is called a “discrete uniform
distribution."
It is as likely that all 400 squares will have to be searched as
it is that the target will
be found in the
first square.
This result
is independent of the starting square.
(U) The item of interest from each
trial
is the number of squares that would have to be
searched to find the
target.
To compute
this, we
first
find the straight line distance from the
response to the target using the formula:
d
= V (Y!-Y 2 )2 + (Xj-X;,)2
,
where (X,
, Y,
) and (X2
, Y2
) are the coordinates of the target and the response, respectively.
(U)
Next, we count the number of squares that are closer to the response than
is the
actual
target, since
all of those would have to be searched before the target would be found.
Finally, we add to the count half of the number of squares that are exactly d units from the
response, since on the average half of the squares at that distance would have to be searched
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III
RESULTS (U)
A.
(U) The Computer-Assisted Search Experiment
^
Table
1 shows
the average proportion of squares
that would
have
to be searched to find the
target,
and the corresponding p-values for
each participant
in each condition.
One
individual achieved a significant
p-value
in
the space condition,
and none did
in
the
time condition.
The
subject who achieved significant results
(Subject
837)
had done
so
in
the
space condition
in the FY 1986 experiment also
(with p = 0.04),
but did
not participate
in the FY 1984 experiment.
Subject
164,
who showed a
t
p-value of 0.066
in
the space condition
in this experiment,
had a
significant
result
(p
=» 0.031)
in
the space condition
in FY 1984,
and
significantly missed the target
(p
= 0.98)
in the FY 1986 space condition.
Neither of
these subjects scored anything other
than chance
in
the time
condition
in any of
the experiments.
The third-ranked subject
(Subject
150,
p
= 0.109)
was
a novice.
Table
(U)
RESULTS FOR COMPUTER -ASSISTED SEARCH EXPERIMENT
SPACE CONDITION
Average proportion
of squares searched
TIME CONDITION
Average proportion
of squares searched
p-value
0.3353
0.4143
0.4302
0.4771
0.4801
0.5023
0.5454
0.5649
*
Previously significant in space.
0.507
0.778
0.865
0.5008
0.4396
0.4715
0.5837
0.5224
0.4337
0.5740
0.5089
Previously significant in time.
0.643
0.121
0.896
0.552
Novice
I
Based on
the minimum p-value of 0.002,
the overall
level
of
significai
;e
for
the experiment with
the
space condition
is 0.016.
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