adaatetenienteatetente *¢Appreved-FerRelease-2003/09/4.6-C SAIC - (415) 322-7960 - Created: Monday, July 31, 1995 11:50 - Bare cots 2396-00794 Experiment Database Summary All experiments may be found in one of two documents or additionally in separate publications: qi) May, E. Cc. Luke, W. L. W., and Lantz, N. DD. (3 February 1993). Phenomenological Research and Analysis. Final Report: 6.2 and 6.3. (2) May, KK. CL, Lake, WooL. W., and James, ©. 1b. (29 September 1994). Phenomenological Research and Analysis. Final Report. Ten experiments were conducted by SAIC under government contract. These experiments inelude all pilot and formal series, and they contain all the trials that were conducted (ie., there is no file-drawer problem, by definition). Table 1 shows the summary information for the 10 SAIC experiments. ‘Table 1. SAIC Experiment Database (1991-1994) ‘Target Dependencies SOC 1 Tr iso! 200 | 0.1242 0.071 AC of Binary Targets 1 (31-38) 0.12330.058 MEG Replication 1 (9-49) MCE AC With Binary Coding 1 (49-56) 40 -0.06720. 158 AC in Lucid Dreams (B-Line) | 1 (58-60) 4 0.08820.204 AC in Lucid Dreams (Pilot) 1 (58-60) 0.368.0.218 Remote Observation 2 (2-3) 0.36120. 144 ERD EEG Investigation 2G-11) ' 8 MCE ERD AC Behavior 2 G-11) 0.3035+0.120 Entropy IL 2 (11-12) 0.550-.0.105 OW 2 ~~ Bm tw fF Wo Nm fect Oo References are shown as Document Number (Beginning-Final Page). Those esperime nts that are underlined may also be found elsewhere. Experiments 1 and 10 have been published in the peer-reviewed journal, Journal ef Parapsychology, Vol. 58, 285-302, and experiment number 7 may be found in an Institute of Noetic Sciences publication, (These additional documents have been made available to the review team.) Experiments 3 and 8 were physiologically oriented and the number of trials shown is the approximate number of stimuli. The effect size and its associated p-value is computed across all conditions and across all subjects and is provided as a conservative guideline.” " For this casual meta-analysis, I combined, post hee, the results across receivers and conditions. With some exceptions, itis not my policy to combine data across individuals. I believe this is incorrect if one is studying the parameters of exceptional performance. Page 2 Approved For Release 2003/09/16 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200190076-4 0200190076-4. 2
a ee a Experiment Details This section includes the raison d’ tre and conclusions for each experiment listed in Table 1. ‘The protocol details may be found in the technical proposals to the SOC) and in the formal descriptions either in the primary two reports or their associated publications. 1. Target and Sender Dependencies In anomalous cognition (AC)’ experiments, it is important to know if the quality of the data depend upon whether a second individual (i.e., a sender) is focusing attention on the target material. Secondly, it is claimed in the Ganzteld literature that dynamic targets (i.c., video clips) are “better” targets than ate static ones (ie., photographs). We found that a sender is not a necessary condition for good AC and. contrary to the Ganzfeld results, we found that static targets produced stronger AC than did the dynamic ones. In addition, we tound a Ateniticant correlation with the quahry of AC! and the gradient of Shannon entropy for the static targets. The effect size quoted in Table t is computed across sender and target conditions. These results led to the publication of Managing the Target-Pool Bandwidth: Possible Noise Reduction for Anomalous Cognition Experiments, Journal of Parapsychalagy , Vol. $8, 303-313 and a revised version of Shannon Entropy as an Intrinsic ‘Varget Property: Toward a Reductionist Model of Anomalous Cognition, in press, Journal of Parapsychology and Appendix D in document number 2, 2. Enhancing Detection of AC of Binary Targets There are a few examples in the literature that suggest that information theory and error correction may increase the de tection of AC. This experment was desie¢ned to enhance binary hitting rate by applying sequential analysis to a sequence of single AC decisions at the binary bit level, Two novices receivers and one experienced one contributed 100 overall binary trials. ‘The expenenced receiver (.e., 341) who had produced significant results im SRI ‘s random number generator experiment in 1979, produced a significant result in this experiment. Although this individual "s result was significant at the 10 7 level, the effi ciency was low. ‘That is, 213 individual binary calls were required to eventually amve at a single sequential analysis decision. The effect size and p-value shown in Table 1 are computed for all three receivers; however, the signilicant combined result is eaclusively because of receiver 531, 3. Magnetoencephalograph Replication At the close of the SRI Intemational Cognitive Sciences Program, May et al. reported significant neuromagnetic responses to sensorially and physically isolated image stimuli. ‘The stimuli lasted for 100 ms and consisted of spatially low frequency sinusaidal grating. This experiment was an extensive replication attempt with substantially more data. Although the preliminary results were promising , there was no statistical evidence of an ettect. ‘Thatis the ettort and control condinona were atatiatically inseparable and care was "A definition of terms may be found in the Glossary at the end of this memorandum Page 3 Approved For Release 2003/09/16 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200190076-4
ee eee Approved Far Belease 2005/05/16! 1a. RIsP962007'91 RDAL2005 90076-4 —— Oe exercised so that the experiment possessed sufficient statistical power that an effect of the magnitude of the SRI study would have been easily sean. Alter the Fact, a major fatal Haw was discovered in this and in the earlier expenment, ‘I'he SOC, the neuroscience staff at Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the staff of the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory all failed to recognize the error. The dependent variable was the instantaneous phase shift of the dominant alpha rhythm concomitant with the stimulus. The Crammer-Rao condition, which sets lower limits on the variance in such measurements prevented us from seeing an effect, even if one existed. This experiment, provided si ehificant msight in the design of the next attempt to identify a central nervous system correlate to AC, 4. Enhancing Detection of AC with Binary Coding The reason for this experiment was to develop a message sending algorithm using AC. Sets of five dichotomies were identified in our standard target pool (e. g-, Mountains versus flat) to act as “binary” bits ina standard two-by-five, error correcting block code. ‘This experiment produced no statistical evidence of AC, although the statistical power was quite low. Each of five receivers contributed only eight trials. Receivers ’ individual effect sizes ranged from 0,559 to 0.224, The primary purpose was to use the error correction toa “send a message .” The effect size shown in ‘lable 1 is computed acrogs ail tive receivers. 5. AC in Lucid Dreams (Baseline) In a pilot series to determine if AC can be enhance d in the altered state known as a lucid dream (i.e., a dream in which the dreamer becomes aware that she or he is dreaming an can signal the waking world of this awareness). Three of the receivers were Lucidity Institute personnel had not heen previously mvalved in AC! experments. Each of these receivers contributed eight AC trials. One produced solid evidence for AC (i.c., FS = 0.265). The effect sizes from the remain ing two receivers cannot be obtained without consulting the raw analysis data; thus, the value in Table 1 assumes an effect size of 0.0 for each of the these receivers. 6. AC in Lucid Dreams (Pilot) ‘l'wenty one trials were conduced in this pilot study. ‘lhe conditions were not ideal in that each dreamer was allowed to take the intended target home for the night. Each target was doubly sealed in opaque envelopes and covert threads were attached to indicate any potential tampering. This breach of supervision was tolerated becanse of the additional benefit of the receivers being comfortable in their own beds. The effect size shown in Table 1 was computed from the rank-order analysis across 21 trials. 7. Autonomic Detection of Remote Observation Many of the experiment conducted in the Farmer Soviet Union (FSU) su ggest that biological systems make excellent targets for anomalous perturbation (AP). ‘his particular experiment involves an isolated sender a tempting to physiologically arouse a sensorially and isolated receiver. ‘he state of arousal is measured by electrodermal activity. Page 4 Approved For Release 2003/09/16 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200190076-4
= eee Approved or Aeisave ZOOS EK MEBSRRA AGGRO 900764 ‘This expenment. succesastualby repheated the earby work and lends support for the claims in the PSU, 8. Central Nervous System Response to AC Signals Generally, there is no known human activity that does not interrupt the production of alpha rhythm. ‘his includes responding to external stimuli, internal mental activity, or intentionally moving a body part. We assumed, therefore, that AC would also interrupt alpha. Improving on earlier experiments, we collect EEG data and standard behavioral AC data that could be analyzed in the usual way. In addition, event related desynchronizations (ERT) resulting from direct stimulation by the AC! target during the feedhack phase of a trial were used aa templates for match filters. These filters are the most sensitive way to search for the assumed similar ERD in the ERG record that was collected during the AC portion of the trial. We have only analyved one KEKtt lead and tound no evidence ot an AC induced KRI) When time and resources become available, we will finish the analysis for the remaining leads. Regardless of the outcome of this analysis, it will be a useful result; it is almost as interesting if there is no ERD while there is significant evidence far AC. 9 ERD AC Behavior Seventy trials were blind judged by the rank-order technique. ‘I'wo of the receiver produced independently significant results, but the effect size shown in Table } is the combined result for all three receivers. 10. The Gradient of Shannon’s Entropy This experiment isa replication of the entropy and target-type portion of Experiment 1. ‘The protocol was sn batantially improved by nar rowing the farget-pool bandwidth and hy monitoring the sessions. Conceptually, the entropy result appeared to replicate; that is, the larger the Shannon entropic gradient in the target, the better the AC. The significantly stronger effect size in the dynamic targets reflect the mmproved protocol, Because the Significant correlation primarily came from the target difference, it is premature to assure that the gradient of the entropy is the deciding factor. Added to the manuseript for publication, were the successful Monte Carlo results that favorably support this hypothegis, however. The effect size shown in Table 1 was computed across target type and receiver. Comments By definition, this data set does not contain a so-called file drawer problem. That is, all the data from the SAIC’ database were included for examination . Kor the six experments that used a more traditional AC protocol, regardless of conditions, the weighted (by number of trials) effect size is 0.23020.047 in 455 trials (p = 5.7x107)." ” All these experiments had been approved by the SOC and IRB. Paga & Approved For Release 2003/09/16 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200190076-4