CPY Shannon Entrepyoas dif Intinedica Far Qe0R ona ZY: CIA-RDP96-00789R00320 A007 0 1998 Anomalous Cognition Experiment — 1992 In Lantz, Luke and May’s 1992 experiment there were no significant interactions between target condi- tion (i.¢., static vs dynamic) and sender condition (i.e., sender vs no sender); therefore, they combined the data for static targets regardless of the sender condition (i.e., 100 trials). The sum-of-ranks was 265 (i.e., exact sum-of-rank probability of p < 0.007, effect size = 0.248). The total sum-of-ranks for the dynamic targets was 300 (i.¢., p < 0.50, effect size = 0.000). Entropy Analysis To examine the relationship of entropy to AC, two analysts independently rated all 100 trials (i.e., 20 each from five receivers) from the static-target sessions using the post hoc rating scale shown in Table 1. All differences of assignments were verbally resolved, thus the resulting scores represented a reason- able estimate of the visual quality of the AC for each trial. We had specified, in advance, for the correlation with the change of target entropy, We would only use the section of the post hoc rating scale that represented definitive, albeit subjective, AC contact with the target (i.c., scores four through seven). Figure 4 shows a scatter diagram for the post hoc rating and the associated AS for the 28 trials with static targets that met this requirement. Shown also is a linear Jeast- squares fit to the data and a Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient (@ = 0.452, df = 26, t =2.58, p<7.0 x 107%). This strong correlation suggests that AS is an intrinsic property of a static target and that the quality of an AC response will be enhanced for targets with large AS. Itis possible, however, that this correlation might be a result of AS and the post hoc rating independently correlating with the targets’ visual com- plexity. For example, an analyst is able to find more matching elements (i.c., a higher post hoc rating) in a visually complex target than in a visually simple one. Similarly, AS may be larger for more complex targets. If these hypotheses were true, the correlation shown in Figure 4 would not support the hypoth- esis that AS is an important intrinsic target property for successful AC. To check the validity of the correlation, we used a definition of visual complexity, which was derived from a fuzzy set representation of the target pool. We had previously coded by consensus, 131 different potential target elements for their visual impact on each of the targets in the pool. We assumed that the sigma-count (i.e., the sum of the membership values over all 131 visual elements) for each target is pro- portional to its visual complexity. A description of the fuzzy set technique and a list of the target ele- ments may be found in May, Utts, Humphrey, Luke, Frivold, and Trask (1990). The Spearman rank correlation between target complexity and post hoc rating was small (9 = 0.041, df = 98, t =0.407, p= 0.342). On closer inspection this small correlation was not surprising. While it is true that an analyst will find more matchable elements in a complex target, so also are there many ele- ments that do not match. Since the rating scale (i.¢e., Table 1) is sensitive to correct and incorrect ele- ments, the analyst is not biased by visual complexity. Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200240001-0 8
Shannon EARP 4s hi onthatte TerQOo MaGseTty CIA-RDP96-0078aRORAOTIOORG! 194 Average Change of Spatial Entropy (bits) 5 6 Rating Score Figure 4. Correlation of Post Hoc Score with Static Target AS. Since the change of Shannon entropy is derived from the intensities of the three primary colors (i.e., Equation 1 on page 5) and is unrelated to meaning, which is inherent in the definition of visual com- plexity, we would not expect a correlation between AS and visual complexity. We confirmed this ex- pectation when we found a small correlation (9 = —0.028, df = 98,1 =—0.277, p < 0.609). Visual complexity, therefore, cannot account for the correlation shown in Figure 4; thus, we are able to suggest that the quality of an AC response depends upon the spatial information (ie., change of Shan- non entropy) in a static target. A single analyst scored the 100 responses from the dynamic targets using the post hoc scale in Table 1. Figure 5 shows the scatter diagram for the post hoc scores and the associated AS for the 24 trials with a score greater than three for the dynamic targets. We found a Spearman correlation of 9 = 0.055, df = 22 (t =0.258 p < 0.399). This small correlation is not consistent with the result derived from the static targets; therefore, we ex- amined this case carefully, The total sum of ranks for the dynamic-target case was exactly mean chance expectation, which indicates that no AC was observed (Lantz, Luke, and May, 1994). May, Spotti- swoode, and James (1994) propose that the lack of AC might be because an imbalance of, what they call, the target pool bandwidth. That is, the number of different cognitive elements in the dynamic pool far exceeded that in the static pool. This imbalance was corrected in the 1993 study and is analyzed below. Regardless, we would not expect to see a correlation if there is no evidence of AC. Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200240001-0
Renn . 22 April 1994 Shannon EntrSppesvenl IRtiracactess SOU DOSY 97 .GhacROPP6-00789R003200240001 -0 Average Change of Total Entropy (bits) 5 6 Rating Score Figure 5. Correlation of Post Hoc Score with Dynamic Target AS. Anomalous Cognition Experiment — 1993 The details of the 1993 study may also be found in Lantz, Luke, and May (1994). In that study, they included a static vs dynamic target condition, and all trials were conducted without a sender. They changed the target pools so that their bandwidths were similar. They also included a variety of other methodological improvements, which are not apropos to this discussion. Lantz, Luke, and May selected a single frame from each dynamic target video clip, which was character- istic of the entire clip, to act as its static equivalent. The static and dynamic targets, therefore, were digitized with the same resolution and could be combined for the correlations. For each response, a single analyst conducted a blind ranking of five targets—the intended one and four decoys—in the usual way. Lantz, Luke, and May computed effect sizes in the same way as in the 1992 study. Three receivers individually participated in 10 trials for each target type and a fourth participated in 15 trials per target type. Lantz, Luke, and May reported a total average rank for the static targets of 2.22 for 90 trials for an effect size of 0.566 (p< 7.51 0-5); the exact same effect size was reported for the dynamic targets. Entropy Analysis Differing from the 1992 experiment, an analyst, who was blind to the correct target choice used the scale, which is shown in Table 1, to assess each response to the same target pack that was used in the rank-order analysis. The average total change of Shannon’s entropy (i.e., Equation 2) was calculated for each target as described above. Figure 6 shows the correlation of the blind rating score with this gradient. The squares and diamonds indicate the data for static and dynamic targets, respectively. Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200240001-0 10
Shannon Enyapy Aree HOF ese SUEZ OBH P cA-ROP96-00789REVBEEOGON.O Total Change of Shannon Entropy (bits) Rating Score Figure 6. Correlations for Significant Receivers The key indicates the Spearman correlation for the static and dynamic targets combined. In addition, since the hypothesis was that anomalous cognition would correlate with the total change of the Shannon entropy, Figure 6 only shows the scores in the upper half of the scale in Table 1 for the 70 trials of the three independently significant receivers. The static target correlation was negative (9 = —0.284, df = 13, t =—1.07, p < 0.847) and the correlation from the dynamic targets was positive (9 = 0.320, df = 16, t =1.35, p < 0.098). The strong correlation for the combined data arises primarily from the entropic difference between the static and dynamic targets. General Conclusions To understand the differences between the results in the two experiments, we re-digitized the static set of targets from the 1992 experiment with the same hardware and software that was used in the 1993 study. With this new entropy data, the correlation dropped from a significant 0.452 to 0.298 which is not significant (¢ = 1.58, df = 26, p < 0.063). Combining this data with the static results from the 1993 experiment (i.c., significant receivers) the static correlation was 9 = 0.161, df = 41 (t = 1.04,p<0.1 52). The correlation for the static targets from the 1992 experiment combined with the significant static and dynamic data from the 1993 experiment was significant (9 = 0.320, df = 59, t = 2.60, p < 0.006). These post hoc results are shown in Figure 7. The combined data from the two experiments, including all re- ceivers and all scores greater than four, give a significant correlation (9 = 0.258, df = 64, t = 2.13, p< 0.018). Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200240001-0 "1
Shannon Entrany- aga PUFBRRR ARES SDB SARI cia-RDP96-0oze—aRAeAIO240001 o Total Change of Shannon Entropy (bits) Rating Score Figure 7. Correlations for Combined Experiments We conclude that the quality of AC appears to correlate linearly with the average total change of the Shannon entropy, which is an intrinsic target property. These two experiments may raise more questions than they answer. If our conservative approach, which assumes that AC functions similarly to the other sensorial systems, is correct, we would predict that the AC correlation with the frame entropy should be smaller than that for the average total change of the entropy. We computed the total frame entropy from the p; all of the 640 x 480 pixels. The result- ing correlation for the significant receivers in the 1993 experiment was @ = 0.234, df = 31 (¢ = 1.34, p <0.095). This correlation is considerably smaller than that from the gradient approach, however, not significantly so. We computed the average of the 5 for the 1,600 macro-pixels as a second way of mea- suring the spatial entropic variations. We found a significant Spearman’s correlation of 9 = 0.423, df = 31 (t = 2.60, p = 0.007) for the significant receivers in the 1993 experiment. The difference between the correlation of the quality of the AC with the frame entropy and with either measure of the spatial gradi- ent is not significant; however, these large differences are suggestive of the behavior of other sensorial systems (i.e., an increased sensitivity with change of the input). We have quoted a number of different correlations under varying circumstances and have labeled these as past hoc. For example, hardware limitations in 1992 prevented us from combining those data with the data from 1993. Thus, we recalculated the entropies with the upgraded hardware in 1993 and recom- puted the correlations. Our primary conclusions, however, are drawn only from the static results from the 1992 experiment and the confirmation from the combined static and dynamic 1993 results. It is clear from our analysis that we may have identified an intrinsic target property that correlates with the quality of anomalous cognition. Our results suggest a host of new experiments and analyses before we can come to this conclusion with certainty. For example, suppose we construct a new target pool that is maximized for the gradient of Shannon’s entropy yet meets reasonable criteria for the target pool bandwidth. If the Shannon information is important, than we should see exceptionally strong AC. We also must improve the absolute measure of AC. While dividing our zero-to-seven rating scale in two makes qualitative sense, it was an arbitrary decision. Rank order statistics are not as sensitive to cor- Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200240001-0 12