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Journal of Parapsychology , Vol. 53, December 1989
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4
“FUTURE TELLING”: A META-ANALYSIS OF
FORCED-CHOICE PRECOGNITION
EXPERIMENTS, 1935-1987
By Charles Honorton and Diane C. Ferrari
ABSTRACT: We report a meta-analysis of forced-choice precognition experiments
published in the English-language parapsychological literature between 1935 and
1987. These studies involve attempts by subjects to predict the identity of target
stimuli
selected
randomly
over
intervals
ranging from
several hundred
milli-
seconds
to one year following the subjects
1 responses. We retrieved 309 studies
reported by 62 investigators. Nearly two million individual trials were contributed
by more than 50,000 subjects. Study outcomes are assessed by overall level of sta-
tistical significance and effect size. There
is a small, but reliable overall effect
(z
—
11.41, p =
6.3 x
10 -25
). Thirty percent of the studies (by 40 investigators) are
significant at the 5% significance level. Assessment of vulnerability to selective re-
porting indicates that a ratio of 46 unreported studies averaging null results would
be required for each reported study in order to reduce the overall result to nonsig-
nificance. No systematic relationship was found between study outcomes and eight
indices of research quality. Effect size has remained essentially constant over the
survey period, whereas research quality has improved substantially. Four moder-
ating variables appear
to covary significantly with study outcome: Studies using
subjects selected on the basis of prior testing performance show significantly larger
effects than studies using unselected subjects. Subjects tested individually by an
experimenter show significantly larger effects than those tested in groups. Studies
in which subjects are given trial-by-trial or run-score feedback have significantly
larger effects than those with delayed or no subject feedback. Studies with brief
intervals
between
subjects
responses and
target
generation show
significantly
stronger effects than studies involving longer intervals. The combined impact of
these moderating variables appears
to be very strong. Independently significant
outcomes are observed in seven of the eight studies using selected subjects, who
were tested individually and received trial-by-trial feedback.
Precognition
refers
to
the
noninferential
prediction of future
events. Anecdotal claims of “future telling” have occurred through-
out human history in virtually every culture and period. Today such
This work was funded by SRI
International and the John E. Fetzer Foundation.
We wish to thank our PRL colleague George P. Hansen, who
is primarily responsible
for retrieving the studies used in the meta-analysis. Wc arc grateful to Edwin C. May,
Jessica Uus, and
to
live anonymous reviewers
at SRI
for valuable comments on an
earlier draft of this report. Valuable comments were also made by Ephraim Schechter
and by three anonymous referees. The division of authorship responsibility
is as
fol-
lows: Honorton
is responsible for the design of the meta-analysis, definition of study
coding criteria, the actual analyses, and the report itself. Ferrari coded the individual
research reports in consultation with Honorton and/or Hansen.
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R00310(1120001-4