Approved For Release 2003/01/09
: CIA-RDP96-00789R002200480001-5
V
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The results of the meta-analysis are presented here, where possible,
in quantitative
analytic terms, and various interpretations are discussed in detail.
In addition, items that cannot
be analyzed are discussed from a
qualitative perspective.
The analysis proceeds in a top-down fashion in accordance with the hierarchy shown
in Figure
1.
A.
Overall Results
The overall analysis was conducted from three different perspectives:
(1)
All of the data,
regardless of the purported
skill of the subjects,
(2)
A subset of the data contributed by an experienced group of viewers, GJ
(i.e., long-term, generally accepted expert viewers— 002, 009,
131, 372,
414, and 504)
(3)
All of the data except for the group G1
(i.e., All-Gl).
Table
2 shows the number of trials n,
total
z score, p value, and effect size d for informational
and putative causal processes and
for the combination of the two.
Table 2
STATISTICAL RESULTS FOR MAJOR CLASSES
Class
Perspective
n
z
P*
d
Psychoenergetics
All
25,449
9.37
3.69
(-21)
0.059
G1
9,825
6.86
3.46
(-12)
0.069
All-Gl
15,624
6.53
3.46
(-11)
0.052
Informational
All
24,450
9.07
5.83
(-20)
0.058
G1
9,702
6.69
1.14
(-11)
0.068
All-Gl
14,748
6.25
1.96
(-10)
0.052
Causal
All
999
2.42
6.39
(-03)
0.077
G1
123
2.06
1.99
(-02)
0.171
All-Gl
876
1.89
2.95
(-02)
0.064
Powers-of-ten are shown
in parentheses.
Approved For Release 2003/01/09
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Approved For Release 2003/01/09
: CIA-RDP96-00789R002200480001-5
The number of trials shown in Table 2 differs slightly from those shown in Figure
1.
A few trials in each category were analyzed from a post-hoc point of view and therefore have not
been included
in the formal
analysis.
The heterogeneity of effect size within each group for
all classes
is very large
(i.e.,
the chi-squares for within-groups were large).
This
is to be expected for such a
global analysis
and
is frequently seen in meta-analyses of psychological data. 5
The sources of the within-group
variation
include
the
psychoenergetic
skill
level
of the
subjects and
fundamental
differences
between psychoenergetic tasks.
The data, regardless of subjects or process, show strongly significant evidence for
psychoenergetic functioning
(p < 3.69 X
10“ 21 ).
Both the informational and putative
causal
processes show significant evidence
of psychoenergetic functioning,
as well.
Since p
values
are
strongly dependent upon
the number
of
trials,
the modern
trend
in meta-analysis
is
to consider the trial-independent measure
of
effect
size. From
this
point of view, the magnitude of the psychoenergetic functioning appears roughly constant for
all
the
data shown
in Table
2,
and,
according to Cohen’s
criteria
for the interpretation
of effect
size,*
corresponds
to
small
effects. 6 The method
of calculating overall
effect
size, however,
involves a weighted average
(see Table
1) and thus may not provide an accurate picture of the
size of the psychoenergetic functioning within
a given category,
To obtain more insight into the
nature
of the
functioning, we must examine the data
within each category.
B.
Results for Categories Within the Informational Process
Table
3 shows
the number
of
trials,
total
z
score, p value, and
effect
size
for
categories
within
the
informational
process.
The
data show
strongly
significant evidence
for
psychoenergetic
functioning for
all categories regardless of subjects.
The
effect
size, however,
begins to demonstrate category differences.
The forced-choice effect size
(
d
= 0.052)
is equivalent to the overall effect
size
shown
in Table 2
{d = 0.059).
Since the forced-choice category accounts for 77% of the total
number of trials, the effect-size averaging technique biases the overall result.
For example, the
effect size
(
d
= 0.209) for the RV-Lab category
is significantly larger than for the Forced-Choice
case (X2 = 22.70,
v =
1; p < 6.63 X
10 -6 ). The RV-Lab effect sizes meet Cohen’s criterion for
a medium-sized behavioral
effect.
Values of 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 correspond to small, medium, and large effects, respectively.
Approved For Release 2003/01/09
: CIA-RDP96-00789R002200480001-5