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I BACKGROUND
<U>
(S/SF/SS-2)
SUN STREAK
is
an
in-house DIA project
for developing
an operational
psychoenergetics
(i.e.,
remote viewing)
capability
for
the
Intelligence Community.
Twelve GDIP billets were
authorized
for DIA
in
1986
for
this activity.
Personnel
from the
ARH
sh?#ty INSCOM CENTER LANE Project
aslraro had been examining similar
phenomenon
were transferred to DIA to form the
SUN STREAK core
group.
DIA had earlier
(1985)
received operational
control
from
tire
DA for this 6-person army unit.
(S/NF/SS-2)
In
1985,
the DIA SUN STREAK program (itpnager^prepared
an /4ction ^lan
that:
(1)
detailed the steps necessary to
transition
the CENTER LANE unit
to
DIA;
(2)
identified SUN STREAK
staffing and support needs;
and
(3)
set forth key programmatic
requirements
for
the SUN STREAK activity.
The Action /plan
anticipated that time required
for achieving
a prototype
operational
capability would
be approximately
years.
Key aspects
of
this ptcti on
Jplan^ along with additional
procedural
information,
were sent to congressional
committees
in
1986,
The
IC staff
was also briefed at this
time
on the^ction
^>lan and
Ja-fi anticipated SUN STREAK operational
development
and
data evaluation
procedures.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Programmatic
and operational
requirements
identified
potion
"p
in
the /action plan
were
to
:
(
)
Cjza. in special
access program
(SAP)
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status
(accomplished
in March
1985);
(2)
gain human
use approval
(granted
in March
1985);
(3)
set
up
a senior oversight and
a task
coordinating committee
(accomplished — though not currently
activated);
(4)
establish tight project controls along with
an
automated data base management and records system
(accomplished);
and
(5)
to establish an R/D
link
for supporting operational
capability development
(accomplished via HQ SGRD funding and
a
DARPA MIPR)
.
(S/NF/SS-2)
The
R/D
link,
via SRI
International,
has yielded
improved data evaluation procedures,
has
identified potential
personnel
selection techniques,
and has contributed to
trai ni ng/developmetit methods that are currently
in project
use.
Caaccaa^
CovO< \ vuuAt- To
h n f
t
The activity at
SRI
ha^. ujatdar&^no^xtensi ve review by
a 9-member
*
peer review panel
to
insure that scientific rigor
is maintained^
(S/NF/SS-2) ^asic approach employed by SUN STREAK toward
developing
a prototype operational
remote viewing
(RV)
capability
is to locate^ personnel
with potential
RV capability and
to
develop these abilities
via appropriate training/development
procedures.
Once satisfactory progress
is noted
on sir^le-to-
verify training
tasks,
those individuals
are presented advanced
training and operational
simulation
targets.
Operational
simulation targets are usually US military or^scl entific targets
where ground truth
is totally known
or
can
be readily determined.
Satisfactory performance
on these tasks
qualify an
individual
for
operational
projects
of
interest
to the
intelligence community.
In
of
the operational
projects,
A
however,
ground truth
is usually not
known
(or
is only partially
Ak)
4?
^ s
<n °S
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known).
Consequently,
complete evaluation
of
the viewer's data
cannot
be made
until
a
later
time
when ground truth does become
available.
In
the
interim,
reasonable estimates
of
the overall
validity of
the viewer's data
can
be made
for many of the
operational
projects worked,
based
on
what
is generally known
or
suspected about
the target.
These
interim evaluation results
CM
MfffTld~ibe updated whenever new ground truth
is received.
A
t
(S/NF/SS-2
)
The operational
projects pursued by SUN STREAK are
approved by the program manager and are,
in part,
based on
the
program manager's familarity with
IC needs and on solicitation
from others within
the
IC
who have
been briefed
into the SUN
STREAK program.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Xhe <§val uatioi^ performed for this report coverall
the operational
and operational
simulation projects
(approximately ZOO)
that have been worked by SUN STREAK personnel
°C
-jplLv- oLfaspp
aJLlecl'fytr-
ainee
1986.
H’&jgepfer,
special
operations
~ Tafn—h
i nr
i ]
rf naa
^
<=L@4e
consultants from the
SRI talent pool.
These
K.
•til
trhg--tfft
.projects
Wurketi,
an <4=
TO
overall
evaluation!' prjfrgenfc*
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II EVALUATION
(U)
1.
DATA BASE
(U)
(S/NF/SS-2
)
The SUN STREAK project maintains an extensive
record of
all
project activity.
Details
include project
timing,
people involved^
. e.
,
viewers,
interviewers,
and
possibly observers^
,
and
a variety of other data considered
essential
for
good record keeping and
for evaluating project
results.
This
data,
along with project summaries,
are
maintained
in
an automated data base
for convenient
retrieval.
Cop i e-s
of project summaries
are also sent
to the
program |n^inagei^^or his
review.
In addition,
all
raw data
(i.e.
,
sketches,
viewer's
notes)
are maintained
in
a
separate file that
is available
for review and analysis
(Additional
project record details
are
in appendix
I).
(S/NF/SS-2)
Evaluation^ conducted for
this report
involved
a
complete reexamination
of
the entire SUN STREAK operational
data base.
Many of
the earlier projects had only been
partially evaluated,
or
not evaluated
at
all,
due
to
lack
of
suitable ground
truthK
were reevaluated at
”
’
~
wo
this time
to ad just.
new intelligence data that
has
/UsrU?
(f-crv
A
J
•y\become avaTTab 1 e l,w 5umn
irf 'tjne proj ect s
.
(S/NF/SS-2)
For this evaluation,
the data base
was
subdivided
into
main project
types:
(1) Scientific
and
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"^technological
(S/T)
;
(2) Counterterrorist
<CT)
?
<3>
Counternarcotics
<CN)
j
( 4 ) Counterintelligence
(Cl);
(5)
S^cument (Contents
(Doc
Cont)
;
and
(6)
predictive
(pred)
.
Total
projects worked for these categories
are shown ^>n
t/
ch
Co/J (A
(S/NF/SS-2)
Of
the nearly 200 projects
WQ1^^
'
*
approximately one-half cannot
be evaluatlfj?^ ground
truth
is
not sufficiently known
at this time.
For
approximately one-fourth
of
the projects,
ground truth
is
totally known
(or highly certain),
and for
the
other
one-
fourth,
ground truth
is only partially known but considered
sufficient
for making
a reasonable
interim evaluation.
( S/NF/SS-2 )
Some
of these ^categories can overlap.
For
example,
prediction data
is also an aspect
of most
of
the
CN,
many of
the
CT and
a few of
the S/T projects.
The
prediction category
in figure
refers
predictions
^
of
a political/military nature, .-future analysis predictive
data will
be evaluated
as
a separate aspect
of
ih« v^ou s
categories
.
2.
EVALUATION TECHNIQUES
<U)
(S/NF/SS-2)
Techniques used for evaluating the SUN STREAK
operational
and simulated operational
data base depend
on
the
nature
of
the
task
and type
of
project.
S/T projects
are
the
most difficult
to evaluate.
This difficulty arises from the
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general
complexity existing
at
most
S/T target sites,
possible ambiguous aspects
of known ground truth about the target
site,
from the nature
of
the
information desired,
and
in
a few
cases,
possibly from the^RVj)targeting method employed.
It
is
easier
to evaluate data
S/T targets
if only
a single
issue,
such
as presence
or absence
(of
a particular
system,
for
example)
is desired,
then
it
is
to evaluate how well
a viewers'
detailed
but possibly fragmentary description correlates with aspects
of
a
complex
site.
In
this case
a considerable amount
of subjectivity
can
be
involved
in evaluating
the degree
of data
/target
correlation.
(S/NF/SS-2)
To assist
in reducing overall
subjectivity of
evaluating complex S/T targets,
the
viewers'
data
is examined and
compared
to ground truth with several
data categories
in
mind.
V
These categories are shown
in f^ure^,
and
include geographic
descriptions,
large
and small
scale objects,
large and small
scale functions,
personality data,
and predictive
data.
Not
all
these categories may be relevant
to
a specific project,
and
in
some
cases may even
be part
of
the RV targeting procedure^ (e . g.
,
when
a photo
of target building
is used
as
an
RV targeting
reference for accessing
its unknown contents)
.
(S/NF/SS-2)
After
identifying
the appropriate data category,
the
next step
is
to examine
the viewers'
raw
(or summarized)
data for
comparison
to known
or estimated ground truth and
to make
a best
judgement
on
what approximate degree
of data correlation actually
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exieisi
Figure
3 defines
the scale ratings used along with their
\a7w\^
approximate degree
of data correlation.
( A^^^^^^^^^contai ns
detailed
instructions for analyst consideration when reviewing
the
data)
.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Final
evaluations and summaries
are prepared by the
rogram \(nknager andinis project representative ^(who
is
not part
^
an-
of
SUN STREAK staff)
in conjunction with the responsible area
A
analyst
or
Intel 1 igence Community point-of-contact
.
Latest
intelligence data and reports
on
that target site
are also
reviewed during this process.
In some cases,
area analysts and
the
IC
poi nts—of—contact provide written appraisals
to assist
in
the
final
evaluation process.
These evaluations are recorded on
summary forms
and are maintained
in
the program jilanager's
files.
SG1A
(S/NF^SS-Z)
An example
of
an S/T target evaluation
is
in figure
4.
In
this case
the target site
was
"7
project was completed
in June
1987 and involved four viewers
(2
proven and
novice).
In this example,
the bracket
(
)
indicates abestestimaXe^was made vrslnce ground truth
is
not
yet
H
If
dash means that data category was not
present
in
the
viewers’"
data.
One
of
the viewersC^ 10 1
)
attempted
K
to describe
the site
6 months
in
the
future.
In
this case
,
totally known^
SG1A
SG1C
SG1B
Some
of
the data categories
geographic features,
large scale
objects)
are
not
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wP
feWy are
included
in Vhe
dffta_
(/
they are
knowing
However
evaluation for this project since they tend to provide confidence
that other
(as
yet unknown)
details
in
the data may be correct.
(S/NF/SS-2)
A more sophisticated analysis methodology has been
recently developed by SRI
for
use
in evaluating complex projects.
This methods'
main advantage
is that
it allows
q u an t i f i
^
d
^ r f Bj
/,
estimates
to
be made
for each and every data element^with respect
to both actual
target existence
and
importance.
This technique
is currently being examined for
use
in
the SUN STREAK program and
has
been applied to
a few projects.
However,
it
is
a
labor
intensive technique
that
will
probably be used only for select
high
interest projects
in
the
future.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Most
of the other SUN STREAK project types
do not
require
a complex analysis methodology.
For example,
due
to the
nature
of what type
of data
is desired
(and availability of
collection assets that can
be
cued)
,
most
of the
CTjp CN^or
predictive projects where ground truth
is known can
be evaluated
„
he data^even
if not acted upon,
either correlate^~wi th the subsequent
location
of
the fugitive
or
ship,
or
it
cl^cMriot.
The event predicted
did,
or did not,
happen.
Thus,
overall
results
for many of these projects
are
simply
a matter
of counting hits and misses.
Hit ratios
or
percentages
of hits/misses form the basis of overall
data
correlations made
in this report for these type
of projects.
Additional
data analysis
is^of course performed
to determine how
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close
to ground truth the data actually
was.
This may
be
of
value
in understanding how to conduct future
s^ar-eh
or
prediet&cm--
3.
EVALUATION RESULTS
(U)
(S/NF/SS-3)
Overall
data correlations for
all
SUN STREAK
operational
and operational
simulation projects performed since
1986
are shown
in figure
5.
These results were obtained by
?
(
averaging the data entered on
the summary data evaluation sheets
for each project primarily for two data categories
<i.e.
large
scale and small
sealery
The
top
lines
on
the
bar charts reflect
data averages obtained from the proven
or experienced viewer^
For
some projects,
especially some
of
the CN and
Cl
projects,
the
distinction between
large
scale and small
scale
is
not clearcut j
this differentiation may not
be too
important.
For the
flAO&fy)
predictive category and most
of
the CN
eta^tra
,
data correlations
were based
on
a hit/miss calculation.
A
(S/NF/SS-3)
g^^ure^S
indicates
that,
on
the average,
data from
proven SUN STREAK viewers
for S/T projects
will
tend to have
a
percent to
30 percent correlation
with ground truth for small
scale
targets,
and
a
30 percent
to
50 percent correlation with
ground truth for
large scale
target features.
Likewise,
for
CT
or CN projects,
about
20 percent
to
percent
of SUN STREAK data
would
be expected
to correlate with ground truth.
Caution must
be exercised
in
interpreting
this
data,
however,
since
the data
base with
manry ground truth
is quite
low^
F
y
^fr - 1- hmi -ff h
A. h 9
A Q +
fl
%
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fcraang—t a
l
r ^or
Cl
and
plocument fteading projects,
SUN
STREAK data shows
a
percent
to
percent correlation
level
~
JTa.
with ground
t r u t h ^
.f nr
it
^The document leading
projects were,
however,
carefully isolated and
a known
or
designated
location.
Predictive data
of
the complex event type
(e.g.,
pol i tical /mi 1 itary
si tuationsjoi'-i'eng
term)
shows
a ^1 ow
data correlation
(i.e.
,
reliability)
of
about
10 percent
or
less*
(S/NF/SS-3
)
If
all
SUN STREAK projects
are averaged together,
as
shown
in
f ,i gu i^e^6^ ,
data correlation would range from about
percent
for small
scale aspects
to about
percent
for
large
scale aspects.
While
"averaging” such data may indicate overall
results
in the
long
run,
such averaging tends
to washout those
results that
have singular
high merit,
such
as
the
identification
several
months
in advance
of
a specific area
in
the
U.S.
where
a
fugitive was
later found.
In this
case,
SUN STREAK data was not
i iA tUi*- g
anJ>oc_
acted
upon;
fortunately,
the fugitive was^abducted
1-1
"
.JWSfflBSSU
£>UA
(S/NF/SS-3)
Another way of considering overall
SUN STREAK
project
data correlation
is
to consider only the proven viewers.
This data
is
shown
in f^gure^7^ for times when these experienced
viewers received
a
or
2+
in
"the numerical
ratings assigned
to
their data correlations*
Only two types
of data are presented
here;
S/T^ and personal ity
data
obtained from the various CT
,
CN and Cl projects.
For S/T projects,
proven viewers would
be
JL*>ta CervuPcJto^
expected
to receive
a high
(i.e.
approx.
percent) ^rating
on
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about
percent,
of
the S/T projects
attempted.
For personality
(i.e.,
background,
state-of -the-heal th
,
specific
activities)
,
around
percent
to 60 percent
of
the projects
would yield high results.
Essentially,
this chart
indicates
certain strengths/weaknesses
of
the present SUN STREAK staff and
suggests more projects
b
personalities
are
warranted.
foreign
or
Cl
target
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uz» FINDINGS
(U)
(S/NF/SS-3)
|^fie overall
data correlations provided
in the
previous section^^^pjfth- in some
instances
a
low overall
averageT^^e^ unique enough to warrant further attention and
continued SUN STREAK activity.
Even
in the
lowest reliability
case
(i.e.,
predictive),
identification
of
even
one
important
future event
out
of
ten could
in fact
be highly significant
}*&
(j
&r*~~
cost
or
life
saving.
The'&§"'averages
do not
do justice £m> "+c>
the single
unique cases
that
cost
little
to act
upon,
as
in
the
case
of
the fugitive
location cited
in section
3.
(S/NF/SS-3)
Specific findings that resulted from
in depth review
of
the entire
SUN STREAK data base
include;
Z.
individuals performance correlates with
project,
type.
This observation
has already assisted
in better
task/person matching,
and overall
data correlations would
be
expected to
improve
in
the future.
o
SUN STREAK has
a distinct potential
for direct
contribution
to certain
CI
t
CN and CT cases
,
as born
out by
specific
instances over
the past two years.
o
Predictive data
is promising under certain cond itions,
such
as
near term events
or situations that
do not
involve
complex
interactions.
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