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CPYRGHT Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 53, December 1989 “FUTURE TELLING”: A META-ANALYSIS OF FORCED-CHOICE PRECOGNITION EXPERIMENTS, 1935-1987 By CHarves HONORTON AND DIANE C. FERRARI ABSTRACT: We report a meta-analysis of forced-choice precognition experiments published in the English-language parapsychological literature between 1935 and 1987. These studies involve attempts by subjects to predict the identity of target stimuli selected randomly over intervals ranging from several hundred milli- seconds to one year following the subjects’ responses. We retrieved 309 studics reported by 62 investigators. Nearly two million individual trials were contributed by more than 50,000 subjects. Study outcomes are assessed by overall level of sta- tistical significance and effect size. There is a small, but reliable overall effect (z = 11.41, p = 6.3 x 107%). Thirty percent of the studies (by 40 investigators) are significant at the 5% significance level. Assessment of vulnerability to selective re- porting indicates that a ratio of 46 unreported studies averaging null results would be required for each reported study in order to reduce the overall result to nonsig- nificance. No systematic relationship was found between study outcomes and eight indices of research quality. Effect size has remained essentially constant over the survey period, whereas research quality has improved substantially. Four moder- ating variables appear to covary significantly with study outcome: Studies using subjects selected on the basis of prior testing performance show significantly larger effects than studies using unselected subjects. Subjects tested individually by an experimenter show significantly larger effects than those tested in groups. Studies in which subjects are given trial-by-trial or run-score feedback have significantly larger effects than those with delayed or no subject feedback. Studies with brief intervals between subjects’ responses and target generation show significantly stronger effects than studies involving longer intervals. The combined impact of these moderating variables appears to be very strong. Independently significant outcomes are observed in seven of the eight studies using selected subjects, who were tested individually and received trial-by-trial feedback. Precognition refers to the noninferential prediction of future events. Anecdotal claims of “future telling” have occurred through- out human history in virtually every culture and period. Today such This work was funded by SRI International and the John E. Fetzer Foundation. We wish to thank our PRL colleague George P. Hansen, who is primarily responsible for retrieving the studies used in the meta-analysis. We are grateful to Edwin C. May, Jessica Uus, and to five anonymous reviewers at SRI for valuable comments on an earlier draft of this report. Valuable comments were also made by Ephraim Schechter and by three anonymous referees. The division of authorship responsibility is as fol- lows: Honorton is responsible for the design of the meta-analysis, definition of study coding criteria, the actual analyses, and the report itself. Ferrari coded the individual research reports in consultation with Flonorton and/or Hansen. broved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4 120001 -4
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