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— eee ‘ Approved For Release 2001/0407 : c1A-RDP46-00789R003200160001-9 II TECHNICAL DISCUSSION (U) A. (U) Retrospective Analysis { : » We have reanalyzed all of the remote viewing experiments conducted during FY 1987 that used National Geographic magazine targets. There were a total of 292 sessions from the tachistoscope, real-time versus precognition, and hypnosis experiments. Using an overall p-value < 0.05 as a definition of statistical evidence of RV, only the real-time versus precognition experiment failed to meet that criterion. _ During FY 1987, the analysis of these data used a subjective rank-order technique. For each RV response, the intended target and 6 decoys were ranked in order from most to least correspondence. The combined average sum-of-ranks was 3.781, where the expected average was 4.00 (z = 1.87; p <= 0.031). Thus, even including the real-time versus precognition experiment, the total RV effort for FY 1987 showed statistical evidence of an information transfer anomaly. i It is possible that a mechanism other than psychoenergetics could account for this overall result. Suppose that analysts tended to rank the target packs in order of complexity—-the most complex first, the least last. That is to say, a target with an abundance of elements would have more correspondence with any response, psychoenergetically mediated or not. To examine this hypothesis, complexity was defined as the total number of target elements such that their membership (in the target fuzzy set) was non-zero.*. Two distributions were then constructed: (1) The distribution of complexities for the targets ranked first by the analyst (2) The distribution of complexities for the correct target regardless of rank. | Figure 1 shows these two distributions. The black histogram clearly demonstrates a bias (X? = 11.30, df = 6; p < 0.08) on the part of the analysts to favor the most complex target as the best match to a given response. This is to be expected, in that the instructions to the analysts are to find the best match between target and response. Thus, especially for noisy data, it is not surprising to find such a bias. On the other hand, the complexity distribution shows no *(U) The universe of elements for the target fuzzy sets was described during FY 1987,7 but is repeated here in the Appendix. 3 t Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9
same eee Se eee oi oe oe oe oe Approved For Release Zootoo} CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9 -_ ‘ such bias for the intended target (x? = 9.29, df = 6; p < 0.16). In other words, since the intended target is chosen by a random number generator, the cross-hatched histogram is a simple test of the randomization algorithm. To test the null hypothesis that the proportions are the same in the two distributions, a chi-square was computed where the expected value in each cell was the row-total times the column-total divided by the grand-total. The proportions are significantly different for these distributions (X? = 15.35, df = 6; p< 0.018). Thus it is unlikely that judging bias in favor of the most complex target can account for the overall significant evidence of RV during FY 1987. First-Ranked Intended Target f Sessions Complexity FIGURE 1 (U) COMPLEXITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR FIRST-RANKED AND INTENDED TARGETS B. (U) Target Pool Reduction (U) To provide a more manageable target pool for rank—-order judging, we reduced the original National Geographic magazine target pool from 200 to 100 targets. The fuzzy set approach, in conjunction with cluster analysis, was used to produce 20 sets of 5 orthogonal targets. These sets were “fine tuned” by visual inspection to provide the best possible target sets. Approximately 20 percent of the targets required changing. The set of 100 targets was photographed and duplicated to form to identical target pools, one for analysis purposes only and the other for target purposes only. Separating these functions into two separate pools ensured that there could be no inadvertent handling cues (i.e., the experiment team “marking” the intended target so the analyst could recognize it). 4 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 |} CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9.
Approved For Release 200/1/03/07 : CIARDhe6. 00789R003200160001-9 (U) (i.e., responses assigned to targets that were not the intended target for the session), we were able to explore a number of options. If the information channel is not saturated, then it is reasonable to assume that the more information available in the target, the more information could be received via remote viewing. The criterion that was adopted was that the information calculated from a set of randomly selected cross-matches could not show significant correlations with the complexity (defined by the sigma count) of the associated targets. { pUnfortunately, this method failed. A strong correlation was found between the cross matches and target complexity. In retrospect, the problem is obvious. Even using the modified responses, the probability of a match with a random target increases with target complexity (i.e., the more that is said, the more likely that there is a match to a random target). a’ explored a number of different variations on the above formalism. To date, however, we have been unable to arrive at an appropriate formulation that meets the above or other criteria for a measure of information transfer during remote viewing experiments. 7 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : ClA-RYPSE-00789R003200160001-9
-_ t Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9 III CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS (VU) ( -_ j It is extremely likely that there is an even more fundamental reason why the various procedures failed as a measure of information transfer during remote viewing. The elements from which the target and response sets are drawn are not of equal weight in information space. For example there is considerably more information (in any sense of that term) contained in an element such as church compared to an abstract element ‘such as horizontal lines. Yet in this first attempt, the w—values were all weighted equally. (U) One direction that deserves exploration is limiting the target descriptions (by the weighting factors for each element in the fuzzy set) to sets of targets that appear to have constant “information” content. This might allow for a more systematic search for an appropriate | information representation. (U) Another problem was that the most uncertainty in a response was assumed to be a blank page. In the final days of FY 1988, Dr. L. Gatlin, a specialist in biological information systems, suggested that we approach the problem from a different point of view. The most uncertain situation is that in which a viewer is completely driven by his/her own response biases. Thus, Ho should be calculated from the bias set, B, or something like it. (U) It is very important to continue along these lines. Until a meaningful encoding of the information transferred during remote viewing experiment is found, there is little hope of success for quantitative modeling. We recommend that a consultant be found who is a specialist in applying information theory to natural scenes and natural language. 8 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9.
Approved For Release ia : CIA-RDP9f-00789R005200160001-8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (VU) The experiment presented in this document was a conceptual replication of reported work in the parapsychological literature, claiming positive statistical evidence for psychoenergetic interactions with biological systems. Both the energetic and informational aspects of human interaction with bacteriological systems were examined, with the ultimate objective of determining, to first order, whether biological systems can be employed as psychoenergetic “intrusion detectors.” (U) There were two principal experimental hypotheses under consideration. The first, which will be referred to as the Intuitive Data Sorting (IDS) hypothesis, posits that individuals ate able to identify or “sort out” locally-deviant subsequences contained within a larger random sequence using psychoenergetic means. In our experiment, an IDS hypothesis predicted that individuals would be able to identify psychically--from.a set of test tubes with a normal statistical spread of mutation rate--subsets of test tubes either with slightly higher or slightly lower average mutation rates than the overall mutation rate for the entire set. Because an IDS mechanism appears to be predicated on an individual’s ability to gain information about a system psychoenergetically, it is thought to involve informational processes primarily. (U) The second experimental hypothesis, which will be referred to as the Remote Action (RA) or IDS Unfavorable (IDSU) hypothesis, ‘postulates that certain individuals are able to effect either a predetermined increase or decrease in a given samples’s mutation rate, by somehow “mentally” causing physical (e.g., genetic) changes in the bacteria. Because an RA mechanism appears to be predicated on an individual's ability to effect physical changes in a system psychoenergetically, it is thought to involve causal or energetic processes primarily. ‘———e A-total of seven subjects contributed six sessions each: three sessions were designed to test the IDS hypothesis, and three were designed to test the RA hypothesis. In all sessions, the subject was confronted with nine test tubes, which were visible inside a locked, environmentally-stable ice chest. The tubes contained dilute solutions of the bacterium Salmonella typhimurium. The bacteriological preparations were carried out by SRI’s Microbial — i Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : Cia ROPER pO7BoRONS200 6000" $
{ { Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RIPP96-00789R003200160001-2 Genetics Department, which routinely uses the Ames Salmonella assay that was adapted for use in this study. (U) In the IDS sessions, the subjects were able to choose three test tubes in which they wished to promote the mutation rates psychoenergetically (high aim), three tubes in which they wished to inhibit mutation rates (low aim), and three that they wished to leave “uninfluenced” as controls (no aim). In all of the RA sessions, Tubes 1, 2, and 3 were predetermined as the low-aim tubes (the subject would attempt to inhibit mutation rates); Tubes 4, 5, and 6 were the no aim controls; and Tubes 7, 8, and 9 were the high-aim tubes (the subject would attempt to promote mutation rates). The basic premise in comparing the IDS and RA conditions is that the subjects were given the opportunity to select high-versus~ low mutation rates from a natural spread of nine in the IDS sessions. Given the predetermined tubes of the RA sessions, however, the subjects were required to cause physical changes in the bacteria, in order to achieve the desired high-versus—low mutation rates. (U) The overall result of the experiment showed weak statistical evidence that individuals are able to sort bacteriological samples according to mutation rate--that is, a p < 0.05 was obtained overall in the IDS sessions for the mutation rates of the low—-aim test tubes being lower than the no~aim controls. Statistical significance was not achieved in any of the other IDS conditions (i.e., for no-aim mutation rates being less than high aim or for low aim being less than high aim). There were no significant differences for various aims observed in the RA condition. It must be concluded, therefore, that while there was some evidence that subjects are able to gain information psychoenergetically about the mutation rates of Salmonella, there was no compelling evidence that subjects are able to cause physical perturbations in these bacteria. According to criteria set forth in the beginning of this study, a physical system will not be considered a candidate intrusion detector unless there is clear evidence that it is registering energetic effects (i.e., physical perturbations) concomitantly with psychoenergetic intent. To first order, therefore, it must be concluded on the basis of this one experiment that the Salmonella bacterium does not appear to be a promising intrusion detector. — Because this is the only known experiment of its kind using Salmonella bacteria as the target biological system, replication is strongly recommended-—-both to verify the 4 Approved For Release 2004103107 : CIA-RDFQ6-00789R003200160001-9 1
Approved For Release ni : ial Cae a an robustness of the IDS capability, and to evaluate definitively the efficacy of using Salmonella | as an intrusion detector. | Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : cia-Ropoe poTsenonszootsonots { HN
eg RN RE A TSS IT Approved For Release aaa : Cla-RRP96-00789R003200160001-$ I OBJECTIVE (U) \ ‘| The objective of this subtask was to determine the veracity of the claims in the parapsychological literature regarding psychoenergetic interactions with biological systems. A conceptual replication of the most promising of these earlier claims was undertaken, as a means to examine whether biological systems register physical effects concomitantly with psychoenergetic “intent” by an observer. This initial experimental effort was an attempt to determine, to first order, whether biological systems can eventually be employed as psychoenergetic “intrusion detectors.” A 4 pproved For Release sponge” : CIA-RDP96/00789R003200160001 -9
Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : ClA-RDP96-dp789R003200160001-9 II INTRODUCTION (VU) | ——""\ One of the ultimate applications goals of psychoenergetic phenomena is the determination of whether psychoenergetic intrusion can be detected, and whether counter- measures exist against such intrusion. From a phenomenological perspective, the term psychoenergetic intrusion can entail what appears to be either energetic or informational processes, or both, as indicated by the following set of operative definitions: e The direct perturbation of physical systems that appear to be well shielded against, or otherwise inaccessible to, human influence (energetic). e@ The psychoenergetic acquisition of information thought to be secure against access (informational). ® The perturbation of a physical system that occurs indirectly as a result of an individual’s attempts to acquire information through psychoenergetic means (energetic and informational). Only those intrusions that entail causal interactions with physical systems are likely to be detected. A physical system will not be considered a candidate intrusion detector, therefore, | unless it registers energetic effects directly (as a result of intentional perturbation), or indirectly (as a result of concomitant acquisition of information). _!in the parapsychological literature, the energetic manifestations of psycho- energetic intrusion are variously referred to as remote action (RA), remote perturbation (RP), psychokinesis (PK), telekinesis (TK), and so forth; informational processes are most often referred to as remote viewing (RV), clairvoyance, precognition, and the like. The term countermeasures may be defined as the shielding or jamming of psychoenergetic intrusion by dither physical or mental processes. q = Before the higher-order problem of countermeasures can be addressed, experimental verification of the existence of psychoenergetic intrusion must first be obtained. Detection of the putative energetic aspects of psychoenergetic intrusion can be accomplished most directly by designing experiments in which an individual's primary task is to actively attempt to cause perturbations in various types of physical systems. “Numerous RA 5 — Approved For Release 2001osiqy CIA-RDP96-00789R003200160001-9