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VI
EVALUATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
(U)
(U)
This
study has
a threefold purpose:
*
To determine whether geophysical
factors
correlate with
RV performance.
•
If
correlations
are
found,
to
identify which geophysical
factors correlate with
RV performance with enough
lead
time
that
RV performance
could
be
forecast
in advance.
To optimize
the potential
for
forecasting by seeking
those
geophysical
factors
that constitute
the best candidates
for
the mechanism by which observed effects
on RV per-
formance
are produced.
(U)
Some
degree
of
success
has
been achieved
in all
three categories.
Significant correlations
of
some
significance
have been found
to exist
between RV performance and
solar
flux values,
sunspot number,
and magnetic
indices
,
A^
,
C
,
and
C9.
Epoch analysis
has
shown
that
flares
and
resulting SIDs have
a strong tendency
to cluster
in certain
time
intervals
with respect
to extreme-scoring
RV sessions.
Flares,
especially those
on
the
solar
limbs,
tend
to occur on
the day
of
low-performance
RV
sessions,
and
on
the
day preceding high-scoring sessions.
(U)
SIDs resulting from flares may produce
a bipolar effect,
such
that
an
intimate
time relationship exists between high-scoring and
low-
scoring sessions.
Epoch analysis
on SIDs
show enhanced
sudden enhance-
ment
of
signal
strength
in VLF
(SES)
on
the
day
of,
or
before,
both
highl-
and
low-scoring
sessions.
(U)
Evaluation
of
the
ELF environment with data from
the prototype
ELF monitoring system revealed patterns
in
ELF measurements
a number
of
days preceding
the
sessions which were oppositely configured over
time
with respect
to high-and
low-scoring sessions.
(U)
A very encouraging aspect
of
this
study
is
the corroboration of
the
findings
by all
of
the various
data
sets
examined.
The relationship
of geophysical phenomena
to RV performance may be
traced
from
solar
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activity,
to
terrestrial activity— including SIDs
and geomagnetic activity.
All
of
these data
sets
appear
at specific
time
intervals, which
are known
to occur with
respect
to
each other,
and
at definable
intervals with
respect
to
the RV performance data.
(U)
The
following conclusions have been reached
as
a result
of
this
data analysis:
•
Correlations between several
geophysical phenomena and
RV performance
are
significant,
and have
a high probability
of
constituting
a valid cause-effect phenomenon.
•
Time periods
of
low-scoring sessions
cluster
(within
hours
or
less) with high-scoring sessions.
This
suggests
that
the mechanism
that
influences
RV performance has
a
bipolar effect.
•
ELF appears
to be
a reasonable
candidate
for
a
linking
mechanism;
it
is
capable
of changing rapidly,
is most
likely affected
by
SIDs
and other
solar
effects,
and
specific
changes have been noted
at
the
times
pf
the
sess ions
.
•
Should
further
in-depth
statistical
studies
confirm
the
results
to date,
a successful
long-range
forecasting
system could possibly be developed using
a combination
of
solar- terres trial
and monitored
ELF data.
Solar-
terrestrial
correlations were significant,
but
the
time
intervals
are not yet defined accurately enough
for
reliable
forecasting.
Successful
forecasting might be
accomplished by using
solar- terres trial data
to
identify
approximate
time periods when enhanced and degraded
performance
is
expected.
Then,
by monitoring
the
ELF
environment
during
these periods
,
the
exact effects
can
be known
or
anticipated.
(U)
The objectives
of
a follow-on effort should
be
to
(1)
confirm
the
findings
(especially with respect
to
the
ELF data)
,
(2)
seek
finer
time resolution,
and
(3)
clarify
the mechanisms
involved
in
the RV
solar-
terrestrial
relationship.
The
final product
of
such
an effort would be
trial
forecasts
in
a blind study
in order
to determine whether
forecasting
(and
its
companion,
scheduling)
can
lead
to
increased reliability
of
the
RV process
.
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VII
SUMMARY
(U)
(UJ
Past experiments
in RV have
shown considerable variability
in
RVer performance over
time;
that
is,
RVers
are
seen
to perform better
at
some
times
than at others.
This variability has
not
yet been
fully
explained
nor
examined
in detail.
The possibility exists
a priori
that
performance might
be affected
by certain external
factors.
If
this
is
the
case,
identifying
these
factors
and understanding
the way
they
influ-
ence
a
trainee's
performance
could
lead
to significant
improvement
in
the
RV product
.
(U)
As
a starting point,
human beings have been shown
to be
sensi-
tive
to certain forms
of electromagnetic radiation that are known
to
exist
in the geophysical
environment;
there
is
also some evidence
that
certain aspects
of human behavior and performance are related
to changes
in yet other aspects
of
the
geophys ical
environment.
An
important question
relative
to RV performance
is
the extent
to which
a
trainee's performance
is
subject
to such electromagnetic
or geophysical
factors.
Investigation
of
this question
is necessary
in
the course of developing
a reliable
RV
capability.
The results
of
such
an investigation would
show whether RV
performance
is
influenced by these
factors,
and,
if
so,
the degree
to which
such
influences
can be controlled,
and whether
they point
to directions
for
further research
into
the
fundamental nature
of psi
function
in
its
broadest
sense.
(U)
The project described
in this report
is
a
first step
in
the
process
of determining
the relationship between
RV performance and
various environmental
factors.
This project had
a two-part aim.
First,
it was necessary
to
set
up
an environmental monitoring facility
for
real-
time measurement
of certain variables,
and
to
identify available,
reliable
sources
of other environmental
data.
Second,
the
degree
of correlation
between
the available environmental data and
the
RV results
needed
to be
developed.
In
this
report, we describe
the monitoring facility and
the
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(u)
specific environmental variables,
and
a preliminary analysis
of
the
cor-
relations between
RV performance
and
these
factors
is
given.
Some
inter-
pretation
is
also provided
as
an aid
to planning
future work along
these
lines
.
(U)
Basically,
in
the monitoring facility we detect
and record
the
local geomagnetic
field,
using
a Fourier analysis
technique
to separate
the various
frequency components
in
the electromagnetic
spectrum
(in
the
range
to
30 Hz).
A prototype
facility had been
in operation
for more
than
two years,
and
some relatively coarse
data were already available
when
the project began.
These data,
and
the
experience
gained while
gathering
them, were used
to design and calibrate more precise
instrumen-
tation
for
this program.
Data from these
systems were
then used
in
the
investigation
to correlate against RV performance data
for
the corresponding
time period
of operation
of
this
facility.
An equally
important part of
the project consisted
of correlating RV performance
data against other
geophysical observations available
from
the National Oceanographic
and
Atmospheric Administration— some
of
it by real-time acquisition from
a
Westar
IV
satellite downlink
installed specifically
for
this purpose.
(U)
As
shown
in
this
report,
several
significant correlations
have
been
found between various geophysical
factors
and
RV performance.
These
correlations have
a
strong
tendency
to cluster
in certain
time
intervals
with respect
to high-
and
low
T-performance
RV sessions.
In
some
cases,
the clustering precedes
the
correlated
RV activity,
thereby yielding
the
possibility
of performance prediction,
should
such correlations
continue
to
be viable
in further work.
(U)
Among
the
most interesting correlations
to
RV performance
found
are
flares occurring on
the
sun,
especially
those
on
the edge
(limbs)
of
the
solar
disk.
These
flares
play
an
important role
in producing upper
atmospheric disturbances known
as
SIDs
(sudden
ionospheric disturbances),
which
influence
terrestrial
radio-signal propagation.
SIDs
are known
to
block higher-f requency communications,
but
at
the
same
time,
to enhance
lower-frequency propagation
at
LF
and VLF
frequencies..
Although
the
effect of
SIDs
on
the
yet
lower-frequency
ELF portion of
the electromagnetic
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(U)
spectrum
is unknown,
it could provide
a promising
link between
the
solar-
terrestrial
environment and known electromagnetic
effects on biological
processes.
With regard
to ELF
itself,
preliminary evaluation of
the ELF
environment
in half-hourly
time
intervals
has
shown
a possible
relation-
ship
to
frequencies
between
10 and
30 Hz,
particularly
as
ELF
intensities
change
from below average
to above average values.
(S/CL-3/NF)
Considering
the modest
level-of-ef fort
for
the
survey
of geophys ical/ELF factors,
and
their possible relationship
to RV per-
formance,
a considerable amount of progress
has been made
in delineating
potential
correlations
of value.
What
can
be said
at
this
point
is
that
this
pilot study provides
evidence
that
the quality
of RV functioning may
be
intimately related
to
the geophysical environment.
What remains
to
be
done
is
(1)
an in-depth
statistical evaluation of
those
findings
of
this
study
that were strongly intercorroborated
by
the various
data
sets
used,
and
(2)
a structured attempt at blind
RV performance
forecasting.
As
a
result,
continued collection and analysis
of
such data will
be pursued
to determine whether
the correlations
found are
stable over
time,
and
will
thus provide
a solid continuing basis
for
RV performance prediction.
From both scientific
and practical viewpoints,
knowledge
of
this
kind make
it possible
in an operational environment
to consider methods
for both
enhancing
the overall RV product,
and
for developing countermeasures.
s
rr^nrT
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