Target and^rtW&ppeFli^§^ 2002®|5WRGlQ1A-RDP96-00789R0032(Ml228(Mf-
r6h 1994
one in a blind analysis from our 1992 study. The response to the waterfall target in Figure 1 included a
number of pages of material about a city and other man-made elements. In all of our analyses, we strict-
ly adhered to the concept that any material a receiver deletes from the the response prior to feedback is
not counted in the analysis. As the receiver deleted the descriptions of man-made elements during the
trial, the response in Figure 1
is considered as complete. This target-response pair received a score of
seven .
Figures 2 and 3 show examples of scores of four and one, respectively.
In both cases, these re-
sponses were not edited by the receiver.
Hypotheses
The overall null hypothesis was that the effect sizes will not be significantly different from zero. We used
an X2 to test the hypothesis that the quality ofACt as measured by rank-order, does not depend upon
target type.
Data Analysis and Results
The analysis for this study was partially automated. All the trial information was stored in a computer
file and could be read only by the analysis program to guard against inadvertent display. An analyst
initiated the program and selected which receiver to analyze.
Since the program kept track of the re-
sults, it instructed the analyst which response to examine for the current trial.
If the target for that trial
was dynamic, the program instructed the analyst to insert enough disks, which were unlabeled with re-
gard to content, so that the target and four decoys could be copied to the computer hard disk. If the trial
target was static, this step was unnecessary, as the static targets were already present on the hard disk.
A randomized order of the decoys and the target were presented in tabular form. A mouse click on the
target name would launch either the dynamic or static display of the selected target. By this method, an
analyst could review the entire target pack and rank-order them as usual. The ranks were entered into
an appropriate place on the computer form. The ratings were done at the same time and entered into
the form. Only after the completion of the analysis for this single trial was the data was locked into a file.
The analyst could then select feedback as to the correct answer. The results for individual receivers
were maintained in separate files. Three receivers participated in 10 trials for each target type and a
fourth, 372, participated in 15 trials per target type. Tables 5 shows the average rank, the effect size and
its associated p-value for the static target condition. We sec that the combined data is significant and
three of the four receivers produced independently significant results.
Thble 5.
Results for Static Targets
Receiver
<Rank>
ES
p-value
220
0.565
0.037
""
372
1.87
0.801
9.7 xlO"4
389
3.10
-0.071
0.589
518
1.90
0.778
7.2 x 10“ 3
Totals
2.22
0.550
l.lxlO-4
Target and fippdwittpMtftalBiase 2(fc
l
j)9ifi
l
lT CIA-RDP96-00789R0032QQ2aO(lyMfeh 1994
water flowing
w spray in the air
vertical drop
‘turbulence
1 )
City, buildings seems to be a big leap
from what
I am feeling about the target W
restart
2) Troubled by city feeling. Could be that the
uprights
are
natural
rather
than man-
made.
In which case the city interpretation
is incorrect and
I am feeling MESA.
lU
check verticals.
3) DELETE
Lights,
structure,
structures,
building, and
city.
We
gats a waterfall,
dude.
Figure 1.
Target and response with a rating of 7.
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white rectangular box like an upside-down
sheet cake
same box
two circular shapes in front. Ike stepping
atonea in a garden
-
long hollow tube,
(ike crashing surf on a
sr \
J
j ))j3?
beach ” "Hawai Pipeline'
dark interior
Figure 2.
Target and response with a rating of 4.
riltlVIMVJtlCTl
ttTZ&mmLiUlMfMIWX Z\ »J
SffliKynuvz lililil Ell
Target and si»>til0/rfifeBafese 2002Wfi6Wt-RDP96-00789R0038»(BBHID®*t01 994
BEGIN—1030 AM
BREAK
puffy bails — almost cotton—liks.
Cottony
puffy
spiotdiea.
Movement — whizzing
I keep wanting to say — specifically — air-
through these cottony puffs fast
Damp-
field landing strip.
Fiat land.
Big airplanes
ness. A long walkway & metal girders.
would land here
like naval carriers. Has a
broken white line down the center of strip &
you see
it straight on - like you would be
coming in for a landing.
Figure 3.
Target and response with a rating of 1.
i rrTTmfJiTivj/iWfi WMWmirm -jn •istswiti
-jitiwjitim iititil pi
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Rank-order
We 'bserved a strong increase ofAC for the static targets in the 1993 trials as compared to that of the
1992 trials (X2 - 3.158, df= l,p< 0.075). Three of the four receivers had improved results in the 1993
trials as compared to those of 1992. Thus, the second hypothesis (i.e., an increase inAC for static tar-
gets) was supported.
Thble 6 shows the same data for the dynamic targets.
Thble 6.
Results for Dynamic Thrgets
Receiver
<Rank>
ES
p-value
1.70
0.919
1.8 x 10~3
372
1.93
0.754
1.8xl0-3
389
3.00
0.000
0.500
518
2.40
0.424
0.091
Totals
2.22
0.550
1.1 xlO"4
Using the rank-order statistics above, we saw no difference between static and dynamic targets in this
study. The first hypothesis was confirmed: we observed a significant increase ofAC with dynamic tar-
gets in 1993 from that of 1992 (X2 = 9.942, df= 1, p <1.6 x 10 "•*).
We then examined the question of static vs dynamic targets with regard to our blind rating system.
Fig-
ure 4 shows the relative density for the static vs dynamic targets for the three significant receivers only.
The mean and standard deviation for the static and dynamic targets was 3.31±1. 73 and 3.91±206, re-
spectively (t = 1.32, df=68,p< 0.096). Including all receivers the means and standard deviations were
3.22±187 and 3.51±206, respectively (f = 0.690, df=88,p< 0.246).
Blind Rating Score 0 - > 7
Figure 4.
Static (dotted) vs Dynamic Ratings for Three Significant Receivers
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It is difficult to interpret this analysis. Ifwe claim that dynamic targets should be more readily sensed by
AC, then we are entitled to examine only the significant receivers. While not overtly so, the trend sup-
ports that assertion. Ratings, however, can be biased because of content. We could argue that this dif-
ference is simply due to that fact that there is more content in the dynamic targets than in the static ones.
There are two arguments against this assertion, however. In this experiment, the content of the dynam
ic targets was carefully chosen to match that of the static targets. In addition, our rating scale is sensitive
to both incorrect and correct information.
It seems unlikely, therefore, that the increase m scoring can
be accounted for by content bias.
We see little evidence for a target type dependency when we include all receivers, or when we examine
the overall difference* using the rank-order data (X2 = 0,df=\,p< 0.5).
General Discussion and Conclusions
In our first experiment, we found thatAC statistics with static targets were better than with dynamic
ones. We hypothesized that this difference resulted from a combination of the target pool design and
the receivers’ expectations.
Following this idea, May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994a) define target
pool bandwidth as the number of differentiable cognitive elements in a target pool. They suggest that a
target pool, such as our original static pool, which contains enough elements to prevent guessing, while
at the same time allowing for some internal editing of receivers’ imagination, is optimal with regard to
the reduction of noise. In the first experiment, the dynamic target pool did not fit this ideal. When we
constructed a better dynamic pool for the second experiment, we observed commensurate increases m
the effect sizes. May, Spottiswoode, and James suggest that their target pool bandwidth concept is test-
able, and it is our hope that these tests will be conducted in the near future.
In the second experiment, even after correcting possible defects in our target pool design, we were un-
able to observe a significant target type dependency. On the other hand, the direction for a replication
is clear.
May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994b) suggest that they have identified an intrinsic target
property that correlates with the quality ofAC (i.e., gradient of Shannon’s entropy).
If this is true, then
there might be a fundamental argument that implies that dynamic targets should be better than static
targets, all else being equal.
If a dynamic and static target pool were constructed on the basis of the
largest possible gradients of Shannon’s entropy, then we would expect a significant improvement of the
AC effect size and result that strongly favors the dynamic targets.
Finally, we comment upon the sender condition. Our results show, as in forced-choice AC, that a sender
is nor a requirement
It is reasonable to expect that if the sender condition is not blind, then some de-
pendencies might be observed.
Dr. Robert Morris and the research group of the Psychology depart-
ment at the University of Edinburgh are currently conducting a study to answer the necessary and/or
sufficient requirement of a sender.
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Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Final Report
APPENDIX C
T
i
|
Managing the Target Pool Bandwidth:
Noise Reduction for Anomalous Cognition Experiments
i
'
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Managing the Target Pool Bandwidth:
Noise Reduction
for
Anomalous Cognition Experiments
by
Edwin C. May, Ph.D
S. James P. Spottiswoode (Consultant)
and
Christine L James
Science Applications International Corporation
Cognitive Sciences Laboratory
Menlo Park, CA
Abstract
Lantz, Luke, and May (1994) reported in the first of two studies that experienced receivers from the
Cognitive Sciences Laboratory produced significant evidence for anomalous cognition (AC) of static
targets, but showed little evidence (orAC of dynamic targets. This result was surprising—it was directly
opposite to the results that were derived from the ganzfeld database (Bern and Honorton, 1994).
In
Lantz, Luke, and May’s experiment, the topics of the dynamic targets were virtually unlimited, whereas
the topics for the static targets were constrained in content, size of cognitive elements, and range of
affect. In a second experiment, Lantz, Luke, and May redesigned the target pools to correct this unbal-
ance and observed significant improvement ofAC functioning. We incorporate these findings into a
definition of target pool bandwidth and propose that the proper selection of bandwidth will lead to a
reduction of incorrect information in free-response^4C.
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Introduction
Effect sizes from forced-choice experiments are much lower than those from free-response studies For
example, in precognition (Honorton and Ferrari, 1989) and real-time (Honorton, 1975) forced-choice
experiments, the effect size (i.e., Zfy/S) is 0.02, whUe in the free-response ganzfeld (Bern and Honor-
ton, 1994), the effect size
is 0.159.
Even if we consider the ganzfeld response as a “forced-choice
among four alternatives, the n effect size, which converts 1-in-n into an effective binary choice hitting
rate (Rosenthal and Rubin, 1989 and Rosenthal, 1991),
is 0.5123±0.0004 for card guessing and
0J854±0.0287 for the ganzfeld (t = 46.2, df ** 2 x 106
, p “ 0). The large '-score is probably due to the
large number of forced-choice trials (i.e., 2xl06). Considering that the mean of the forced-choice ef-
fect size is 2J50 smaller than that of the ganzfeld, however, there is clearly a meaningful difference. One
potential source of noise in forced-choice experiments, particularly when trial-by-tnal feedback is giv-
en, is memory of the previous trial and knowledge of the complete set of possibilities. For example,
suppose a receiver (i.e., participant, subject) is asked to guess if a particular card from a normal deck of
playing cards is red or black.
Suppose further that there is some putative information coming eit
er
from the card or from the mind of a sender, and that the receiver is a “good” imager (i.e., can easily
picture a brilliant image of a playing card in her/his mind). The receiver's task, then, can be reduced to
simple signal detection. Yet, if anomalous cognition (AC)' is not a robust information transfer mecha-
nism, and it appears that it is not, the “signal” is easily lost among the vibrant internal imagery from the
memory of all alternative playing cards. The resulting effect sizes, therefore, are reduced.
The ganzfeld itself was developed as a somatic-sensory noise reduction procedure (Honorton and
Harper, 1974). Honorton argued that by placing a receiver in a sensory-reduced environment, her/his
reactions to the environment would be sharply reduced, encouraging a commensurate reduction of
noise. Based upon the results of our current work, we argue that a major contributor of noise m any
free-response study is cognitive and arises, in part, because of the target pool design.
One result from the ganzfeld experiments suggests that dynamic targets produce stronger results than
static targets (Bern and Honorton, 1994). Lantz, Luke, and May (1994) attempted to replicate this find-
ing in two lengthy experiments in 1992 and 1993. The first of these explored, in a 2x2 design, the rela-
tionship of sender vs no-sender and static vs dynamic target type on the quality of the AC. Since Lantz,
Luke, and May reported no significant effects or interactions due to the sender condition, we will ignore
that aspect of this first experiment. In the second experiment, they conducted all trials without a sender
and changed the characteristics of the target pool. This paper describes the insights gained from these
two studies which led both to the concept of target pool bandwidth, and to a potential way of reducing
noise in free-response AC.
Summary of the first Anomalous Cognition Experiment - 1992
We begin by summarizing the experiment and pertinent results from a study that was conducted in 1992,
thedetailsofwhichmaybefoundin Lantz, Luke, and May(1994). Intheexperiment,astat.cvsdynam-
ic target condition was included to replicate the findings from the ganzfeld.
* The Cognitive Sciences Laboratory has adopted the term anomalous
w^hav^doncso
mechanisms. These new terms will be used throughout this paper.
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Target Pools -1992
For the static targets, Lantz, Luke, and May used a subset of 50 of ou, traditional
magazine collection of photographs (May, Utts, Humphrey, Luke, Frivold, and flask, 1990). These
targets had the following characteristics*.
• Trarair hnmrtaeneitv The Dhotoeraphs contained outdoor scenes of settlements (e.g., villages, towns,
^S^S^cStSSS, and streams, waterfalls, etc.), and .opography (eg., moumatns,
hills, desserts, etc.).
• Size homogeneity. Thrget elements are all roughly the same size. That is, there are no size surprises
such as an ant in one photograph and the moon in another.
• Affectivity homogeneity. As much as possible, the targets included materials which invoke neutral affec-
tivity.
This pool is perhaps better characterized by what it does not contain. There are no people, animals,
transportation devices or situations in which one would find these items-and no emotionally arousing
pictures.
The dynamic targets, on the other hand, followed similar lines to those from the ganzfeld studies.
Lantz, Luke, and May digitized and compressed video clips from a variety of popular movies or docu-
mentaries. With the exception of cartoons and sexually-oriented material, the clips could contain virtu-
ally anything. Examples included an indoor motor bike race and a slow panoramic scan of the statues on
Easter island. Almost all of the characteristics of the static target pool were violated. Theonlycommon
characteristic was thematic homogeneity within any given dynamic clip; across targets there were no
restrictions on content.
Data Analysis and Results - 1992
For each response, a single analyst conducted a blind ranking of five targets
the intended one and four
decoys-in .he usual way. fbc expected mean-chance rank was three. Effect sized were computed by:
b-
where N is the dumber of rank possibilities (i.e„ five in our case) and X. and S, are the expected and
observed average ranks, respectively. The p-values were computed from Z-ESxV", where n is t
e
number of trials.
Each receiver participated in 20 trials for each target type, regardless of sender condition. Table 1 shows
the average rank, the effect size, and its associated p-value for the static target condition. We see that
the combined data is significant and that two of our most experienced receivers, 9 and 372, produced
independently significant results.
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