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cftel&as#'20^0/d§/0^: Cfo-ffoP§B-007fe9Rp0SI OCR 20tTO1
CPYRGHT
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4
Paranormal Communication
uError Some Placer
by Charles Honorton
CPYRGHT
Review of the ESP controversy
traces debate from statistical
and methodological issues to
the a priori critique and the
paradigm of “normal science."
Asked
his opinion
of ESP,
a skeptical
psychologist once
retorted, "Error
Some Placel"
I believe he was right, but for the wrong reasons. Western
science has always been ambivalent toward the mental side of reality, and
it
is perhaps not surprising that the occurrence of "psychic” phenomena
is
one of the most controversial
topics in the history of science.
The
first serious effort toward
scientific examination of
psi claims was
undertaken by the Society for Psychical Research (SPR), founded in London
in
1882
for the purpose of "making an organized and systematic attempt
to investigate the large group of phenomena designated by such terms
as
mesmeric, psychical, and spiritualistic." The SPR leadership included many
distinguished
scholars
of
the
period,
and
similar
organizations
quickly
spread to other countries, including the American Society for Psychical Re-
search, founded in New York
in
1885 under the aegis of William James,
who
himself
took
an
active
role
in
early
investigations
of
mediumistic
communications.
These tum-of-the-century investigators focused much of their attention
on
authenticating individual
cases of spontaneous experiences
suggestive
of psi communication. While a great deal of provocative material was care-
fully examined and reported
(e.g.,
13), the limitations inherent in the case
study approach prohibited definitive conclusions. However thoroughly au-
thenticated, spontaneous cases cannot provide adequate assessment of such
potential sources of contamination
as chance coincidence, unconscious
in-
ference and
sensory
leakage,
retroactive
falsification, or deliberate
fraud.
Charles
Honorton
is
director
of
research
in
the
Division
of
Parapsychology and
Psychophysics, Department
of
Psychiatry, Maimonides Medical
Center, Brooklyn,
N.Y.
id?
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: C IA RDP96 00789R0031 001 20001
A
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003100120001-4
CPYRGHT
Journal of Communication, Winter 197 5
Early experimental approaches primarily involved
the "telepathic" repro-
duction of drawings at a distance (62). While often striking correspondences
were obtained,
the experimental
conditions did
not
usually
provide
for
random selection qS target (stimulus) material, and were not always totally
adequate with respect
to the
possibility of sensory leakage, intentional or
otherwise.
Neither the spontaneous case studies nor the ejirly experimental efforts
made much impact upon the scientific community, though they drew critical
comment from prominent period
scientists. "Neither the testimony of
all
the Fellows of the Royal Society, nor even the evidence of my own senses,"
proclaimed Helmholtz, "would
lead me to believe
in
the transmission
of
thought from one person to another independently of the recognized chan-
nels
of
sense." Thomas Huxley
declined an
invitation
to
participate
in
some of the early SPR
investigations, saying he would sooner listen to the
idle gossip of old women.
The rudiments of an experimental methodology
for testing psi were suggested three
centurii s ago by Francis Bacon.
In
Sylva Sylvarum,
a work
published
posthumously, Bacon
discussed
"experiments
in
consort,
monitory,
touching
transmission
of
spirits and
forces of imagination." He suggested
that "the motions of shuffling cards,
or casting of dice" could be used
to
test
the "binding of thoughts.
.
.
,
The experiment of binding of thoughts should be diversified and tried
to
the
full; and you are
to note whether
it hit
for the most part though not
always" (2).
The application
of
probability theory
to the assessment of deviations
from
theoretically expected chance outcomes was introduced
to
psychical
research in 1884
by the French Nobel laureate, Charles Richet,
in experi-
ments involving card-guessing. The popularity of card-guessing
as an
ex-
perimental methodology was greatly influenced by the work of J. B, Rhine
and his associates at Duke University in the early 1930s. Rhine (50) devised
a
standard
set
of
procedures around
a
simplified
card
deck
containing
randomized
sequences
of
five
geometric
forms
(circle,
cross, wavy
lines,
square, andj^lrde). These "ESP cards" were prepared in packs of 25, and
^ each "run"^hrough the pack was associated with a constant binomial prob-
ability of
1/5, since subjects were not given
trial-by-trial feedback. Provid-
ing the experimental conditions were adequate to eliminate
illicit sensory
cubes, recording errors, and rational
inference,
statistically
significant
de-
partures from binomial chance expectation were interpreted
as indicating
extrasensory communication.
Initially, "telepathy"
tests consisted of having
a
subject
in one room
attempt
to
identify
the order of the cards
as
they were observed by an
"agent" in another room. In "clairvoyance"
tests, the subject attempted to
"guess" the order of the cards directly, as they lay concealed in an opaque
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CPYRGHT
Journal of Communication, Winter 1975
scores were in all cases nonsignificant, with a mean scoring rate of 5.04 (43).
Several critics questioned the applicability of the binomial distribution
as a basis for assessing the statistical significance of ESP card-guessing data.
Willoughby
(7ft) proposed the use of an empirical control series, but later
withdrew the suggestion after comparing the two methods (79). Alternative
methods
of deriving
the probable error and recommendations
for
using
the empirical standard deviation were also proposed and later withdrawn
(21,
22). Concern over this issue diminished and was generally abandoned
following the
publication of a large chance control
series involving half
a million
trials and demonstrating close approximation
to
the binomial
model (12).
Another question
arose about whether
the binomial model
provides
sufficient approximation to the normal distribution to allow use of normal
probability
integral
tables
for determination
of
significance
levels
(17).
Stuart and Greenwood
(73) showed that when the normal distribution
is
used
as an approximation
to
the binomial model, discrepancies
are im-
portant only with cases of borderline significance and few
trials.
The use of the binomial critical ratio (z) to evaluate the significance of
the ESP card-guessing deviations was generally approved by
professional
statisticians
(6,
20).
Fisher
(10), however, commented
that high
levels
of
statistical significance should not be accepted as substitutes for independent
replication. In another vein, Huntington
(20) asked,
“If mathematics has
successfully disposed of the hypothesis of chance, what has psychology
to
say about the hypothesis of isP?“
The most frequently expressed methodological
concern was the possibility of some
form of ",sensory leakage," giving the ESP
subject enough information about the targets
,
to account for significant, extrachance results.
As
early
as
1895,
two
Danish
psychologists,
Hansen
and Lehmann
(16), reported that with the aid of parabolic reflectors subjects could detect
digits and other material silently concentrated upon by an agent. In these
experiments,
the subject and agent
sat with
their heads close to the
foci
of two concave mirrors. While the agent concentrated on the number, he
made a
special effort
to keep his lips closed. Under these conditions,
the
subjects were frequently successful in identifying the number. These results
were
interpreted
by Hansen and Lehmann
as supporting the hypothesis
of "involuntary whispering.” The
utilization
of subtle sensory cues was
demonstrated in a careful investigation by S. G. Soal of a stage "telepathist”
(66). There were
also reports, such as the case of "Ilga
K.,“
a mentally
retarded Latvian child who could read any text, even in a foreign language,
when
someone
stood
behind
her,
reading
"silently.”
Experiments
with
dictaphone recordings revealed that “Ilga” was responding to very
slight
auditory cues (3).
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