Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200090001-8 I INTRODUCTION This document constitutes the final report for services performed in connection with a services contract between SRI International and Syracuse University (Services Contract Number C-11489). This work has been performed within the Communication Studies Laboratory in the School of Computer and Information Science, Syracuse University. We refer to this Laboratory as “CSL.”* } . . *The staff of CSL is committed to supply any additional information bearing on the execution of this contract that SRI may request. In. addition, CSL will submit a supplement to this document reporting on the experimental results obtained when the experiment itself has been completed. 3 6 } Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200090001-8
we Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200090001-8 II EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND DESIGN GOALS* There were four primary goals set for the design of the SRI-Syracuse Remote Action Project. First, it was desired that we develop a protocol that would allow comparison of remote action (RA) effectiveness for RNGs having different physical characteristics and located at varying distances from the designated RA agents. Second, the protocol, although rigorous, should allow RA agents considerable flexibility, and should be oriented, in general, toward producing strong positive RA effects. Third, the protocol should allow for on-line multiple laboratory research, such that each laboratory could have confidence in the validity of the obtained results. Fourth, the protocol should be such as to eliminate reasonable counterhypotheses. We will now consider how these goals are implemented by the design developed. GOAL I: Comparison Of RNGs Of Differing Characteristics The present study employs a within-subject two-factor design. Each subject completes at least one session composed of eight runs. Each run is composed of 1,536 trials, where one trial equals a single binary digit generated by one of six possible sources of randomness ‘(RNG). RNG distance from RA agent is one factor, in that three-RNGs are at CSL in Syracuse and three at SRI in California. At each site, one RNG is pseudorandom, one relies on a source of electronic noise, and one uses beta-decay as noise source. Thus, characteristic of RNG noise is the second factor in a 2 x 3 two-factor design. Within each run, all six RNGs contribute 256 consecutive trials, making up 6 x 256 or 1, 536 trials. These trials are fed back to the RA agent through a circle of lights display (to be described below) in such a way that the display behaves the same and looks the same for each of the six RNGs, including any time delays made necessary by hardware or software considerations. Thus, the RA agent is operating an equal amount of the time on all six, yet has no ordinary knowledge of which is driving the display at any given time and, if desired, need not be informed that more than one kind of RNG is involved. Although all six RNGs are involved in each run, a run lasts little more than a minute therefore, there should be minimal noise from any short or long-term environmental or psychological changes. Additionally, to eliminate *This chapter prepared by Dr. Robert L. Morris. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200090001-8
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200090001-8 order effects within the run and within the session, the order of the six RNGs is tightly counterbalanced within runs, within sessions, and between sessions. Half of the time the three RNGs from CSL are run first within the run and half of the time they are not. Likewise, half of the time the RNGs from a given location are run in the order: noise, pseudorandom, decay; and half of the time in the reverse order. These four possibilities are counterbalanced within each session, in one of two fixed symmetrical orders. The two orders (designated Order 0 and Order 1) are counterbalanced between sessions for the 32 sessions. A pseudorandom computer algorithm decides which one of the two counterbalancing orders will be used first, so that the experimenter and subject are blind to the sequence in a given session. The computer software in either location has been set up to recognize and implement each order when told which order is in use. Thus, any differences in RNG performance cannot be ascribed to any kind of order effect such as decline effects, terminal salience, and so on, of the sort occasionally observed in parapsychological data. GOAL II: Allow RA Agents Adequate Procedural Flexibility and Simplicity Such as to Optimize the Likelihood of Positive Results No more than ten RA agents are to be selected to complete a total of 32 sessions. Although each agent will thus average just over three sessions each, strong performers may be invited back for more than three, while weak performers may be invited for fewer, at the discretion of the experimenter. Thus, each person will have more than one opportunity to do well, thereby reducing the pressure often experienced by agents in single session designs. Although such a procedure potential diminishes the generalizability of the final result (a deficit to be remedied in any event only by follow-up research), such that whatever results are obtained are more likely to represent findings about real RA. Additionally, introductory sessions (not to count in the formal series of 32) will be conducted for each potential agent, to expose them to the testing environment and personnel and options (see below). They can thus familiarize themselves with the environment, decide whether they want to participate, think about the conditions under which they would like to be run, complete (or at least be familiar with) the necessary questionnaire and consent form, and so on. Those who show evidence of strong negative scoring during the introductory session may, at the discretion of the experimenter, be encouraged to do a second introductory session, or at least some additional practice runs before beginning the formal experiment. At the introductory session, potential agents will be shown or told several things. They will receive an introductory talk about the lab and its work, with emphasis on its past success in producing results in RA studies, plus the success of similar studies in other labs throughout oy Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200090001-8 i
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200090001-8 the world. They will be told that this study explores the range of RNGs that are amenable to RA effects, that we anticipate success on all of them, but need further descriptive data. The exact nature of this talk will vary with the agent, some of whom will already be sophisticated. After the talk, agents will be shown the SRI questionnaire and the CSL consent form, and will be encouraged to complete them both. Following this, agents will be shown the equipment room and where the experimenter will be sitting during the session. At this time, the experimenter will actually start up a demonstration display, then lead the agent to the adjoining experimental room where the display will now be running. The experimental room itself is sizable, approximately 15 feet square. The walls are thick and covered by light brown sound absorbent drapes; only loud sounds from outside can be heard. Lighting is either by overhead fluorescent or by small floor lamp with dimmer, placed in one corner. Furnishings include a brown leather sofa, matching leather recliner, and two additional brown cushioned chairs. The display is a low, black octagonal wooden table, approximately four feet across. Protruding through holes in the top of the table are 128 small light bulbs arranged in a circle 3 feet in diameter. At the start of a run, certain of the lights are lit; decisions of the RNG are used to shift ‘the set of lights that are lit one position at a time, either clockwise or counterclockwise. The subject’s task is to bias the shift of the lit lights consistently in whichever direction has been designated as target. The movement of the lights around the circle can be displayed in a variety of ways, e.g., as shifts in the position of a single light, a small group of lights, several small groups of lights equally spaced around the circle, or as a gap in a ring of lights. The lights can move at a rate of over a hundred steps a second or any slower speed. The RNG can be used to bias them clockwise or counterclockwise, in a random walk, or can step them in one direction only, with the decision being between taking a step or not taking a step. The latter provides feedback, but feedback that does not allow subjects to know how much better or worse than chance they are doing at a given moment. Such indirect feedback may be preferred under certain circumstances. The RNG can be omitted, such that the lights simply circle evenly in one direction, to produce visual effects or to provide a focus of concentration. Any display mode can be maintained for any length of time, and displays of different modes can be strung together in sequence. :: On the basis of pretesting with a variety of potential agents, we have selected five kinds of displays, representing various combinations of initial light patterns. Four of the five involve binary choices of advance clockwise versus no advance; the fifth is a random walk. Agents are shown each of the five and given an opportunity to explore them. At the start of each Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200090001-8