DATE:
SECRET
effd P~ A
Approved For Release
memorandum
1 0 FEB
1989
REPLYTO
n„
cr
ATTNOFl
Ub-Dt
SUBJECTS
Evaluation of SUNSTREAK Reporting on U.S.
Hostages
(S)
toi
DT
1.
(S/NF/SS-3)
SUMMARY:
While
a
complete
and
accurate
evaluation
of
the
use
of
SUNSTREAK
reporting
on
U.S.
hostages
cannot
be
conducted
until
additional
hostage
releases
occur,
preliminary
findings
indicate
that
the
SUNSTREAK
program
does,
indeed,
represent
an
additional
source
of
positive,
hostage-related
information.
At
a
minimum,
SUNSTREAK
reporting
stimulates
analytic
deliberation,
may
help
focus
and
guide
collection
efforts,
and
forces
reevaluation
of
extant
theories
and
methodologies.
Moreover,
experience
with
SUNSTREAK
hostage-related
reporting
over
the
past
year
revealed
several
instances
of
startling
corroboration
of
other
intelligence
collection
disciplines
(on
both
locational
and
health
issues)
and
an
impressive
logical
consistency
amidst
the
complex
factional
morass
that
is
Lebanon.
In
short,
SUNSTREAK
reporting,
even
in
the
absence
of
corroborating
evidence
that
could
be
provided
by
a
released
hostage,
is
assessed
to
be
as
reliable
and
accurate
on
locational
issues
as many other
sources
of
hostage-related
information
emanating
from
Lebanon.
The
SUNSTREAK
program
represents
yet
another
source
of
Information
and
stimulation for the intelligence analyst.
SG1C
2.
(S/NF
SS-3)
LOCATIONAL
DATA :
On
the
issue
of
locational
information,
SUNSTREAK
reporting
has
been
remarkably
logical
despite
the
complex
and
dynamic
nature
of
Lebanese
territorial
and
factional
strife.
The
odds
pinpointing
a
hostage
location
that
would
be
completely
illogical
in
the
Lebanese
context
are
great.
For
example
a
location
that
fell
in
an
area
WARNING NOTICE :
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to those with verified access to SUNSTREAK
L§vel
3 (SS-3).
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4.
(S/NF/SS-3)
HEALTH
INFORMATION :
While
no
accurate
assessment
can
be
made
at
this
time
on
SUNSTREAK
reports
dealing
with
health
dynamics— swings
in
physical
and
mental
well-being— the
overall
picture
presented
by SUNSTREAK
is consistent with judgments made by the
Intelligence
CommunUy^fforeover^th^heaHJwiynami^po^^
^JUHH^Jj^^^^^Desp7t^penoa7^new^an<inntemgenc^report^that
cert£m^nostage^nad
died,
SUNSTREAK
reports
have
consistently
and
emphatically
assessed
all
the
hostages
to
be
alive.
DIA
agrees
with
the
assessment,
and recent reporting strongly indicates
the
same.
5.
(S/NF/SS-3)
COMMENT:
Our initial
assessment
is that SUNSTREAK reporting
shows
great
promise
on
the
issues
of
hostage
locations,
but,
much
less
^ potential
for
predicting
future or seoqential
eveqts .
Furthermore,
reports
generated" as
a
result
oT
fpoising
on
a
single
hostage
(rather
than
the
hostage
issue
as
a whole) appear to have
a higher degree of accuracy.
SGI J
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