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B.
(U) Fuzzy Set Analysis
(U)
Since 1972, SRI has developed many procedures to determine whether information
has been obtained beyond chance
expectation. 6*8
In the
current method, 9 the
targets and
viewer’s responses are described as fuzzy sets of descriptor elements
(e.g., presence of water).
The outcome of the RV experiment
is measured by a figure of merit, which
is related to the
accuracy and reliability of the viewer’s description of the target.
{ 0 )
i When RV
is applied
}
the analysis
procedures differ considerably.
In laboratory experiments,
much
is known
about
the target,
but
in
\
> applications
,
very little target
information
is known.
Thus,
the analysis technique must be modified
in
order
to assess the
"correct" RV response elements before confirming
evidence can be obtained.
Vo)
,
'Longstanding difficulties
in applying the RV phenomena
to
intelligence applications are at
least twofold.
In a lengthy response,
those elements of genuine
|
significance must be identified
a
priori.
Second,
even excellent examples
of remote viewing do not
necessarily imply
\
usefulness.
Therefore,
RV—derived
data should be used
in conjunction with information ‘obtained
through more conventional channels.
’Io-
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III APPROACH (U)
(U)
SRI conducted a 26-hour RV experiment beginning at 1008 on August 24,
1988.
The viewer provided data in four different work periods:
at 1008 and 1500 on August 24, and at
0910 and 1120 on August 25.
The details of the experiment are described below.
A.
(U) Remote Viewer
SRI selected Viewer V372
to participate
in this experiment
because of his* 10-year experience as a viewer,
and because he produced
good results
in the first experiment
in this series,
conducted
in May,
1987.
B.
(U) Target Material
The target was a microwave generating device being tested
i
*
~
Included
in
the target material was the
functional aspect
k
relationships among elements*
,
and
the elements themselves.
C.
(U) Experiment Protocol
'
_ The SRI
team was given the
,
name of the experiment,
a time
window during which the experiment would be active,
and a photograph and
Social Security number of an on-site
individual.
Other than this,
all
aspects! and details of the experiment were withheld from V372 and SRI
personnel.
(U) To keep the identify of the viewer confidential, we refer to the viewer with the
pronouns he and his regardless of the viewer’s gender.
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(tKS**!
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Four sessions were conducted to provide
information.
The
times and circumstances were as follows:
(1) lOQg
August
V372 was
asked
to
describe
the
location and
details
of
an
event
in
progress.
Details
about
pertinent
personnel were also requested.
(2) 1500
August
V372
was
asked
to
describe
details
and
activity
at
• the
site
demarked
by
the
presence
of
the
sponsor's on—site representative.
(3) polo
August
V372
was
asked
to
expand
upon
his
descriptions from the previous
day.
(4) 1120
August
V372
was
asked
consolidate
the
information
from
the
previous
scans
and
to
provide
his
concluding
remarks
.
During each session,
V372's responses were tape-recorded.
He
was
encouragfed
to draw details whenever possible.
Drawings are contained
in Appendix
At
and Appendix B contains verbatim transcripts of all four
sessions.
(Because of technical difficulties,
most of the taped record of
the second session was lost.
Since
the remaining data are
intact and
since the drawings from the remaining viewings are complete,
this gap
is
not significant.)
"
After all raw data had been delivered
to
the sponsor,
V372 and
SRI personnel were allowed to visit the target site
^|for
feedback.
D.
(U)
Analysis Technique
^
As discussed
in' Section
II,
quantitative analysis
in an
intelligence setting poses problems.
Any analysis of remote viewing data
must be accomplished within the context of a mission statement.
An
analysis designed only to demonstrate RV
is inadequate
to enable an
* assessment,
and
vice versa.
Under another program,®
SRI
w
developed a generalized analysis technique that allows
for an
a priori
mission statement.
An overview of that technique follows.
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1.
(U) Definitions
The most
important aspect of RV data analysis
is the
definition of both the target and the RV response.
For this analysis,
all
target and response information
is defined as
the fuzzy sets T and R,
respectively.
Each
is described below.
•
»The target
is defined as
a fuzzy set of target elements
T[ek,(JLk,wk]
:
•
«k
is an
element of a target.
For example,
an element
of the microwave generator target might be
the concept of
antenna efficiency.
•
Hk
is
the membership value of element
ek.
It
represents the degree to which
ek is present at
the
target.
Antenna efficiency,
for example,
might have a membership
value of 0.6,
indicating that antenna efficiency
is 60% of
the target material.
Determined subjectively,
pk
is always
a value from 0 to
1.
•
v
_ wk is an arbitrary
weighting factor for element
ek.
This
factor accounts
for differing missions by assigning the
importance of elements relative
to each other.
The
U
’-energy aspect of the microwave generator
is very
rtant,
for example,
and might be assigned a weight of
when compared with power supplies,
which might have
a
weight of 0.5.
i
The RV response
is similarly defined as a fuzzy set of
response elements
/? [
, p.k
, wk J
.
The membership values
for response
elements,
however,
have
a somewhat different meaning than those for target
elements.
Membership values,
uk, represent an analyst's assessment as
to
the degree of presence of
ek in the response.
For declarative statements,
Uk »
1 unless
a viewer volunteers a specific or implied importance of
ek
to
the overall target.
A degree of interpretation
is allowed for
nondbclarative statements by letting uk<
1*
The response weights,
wk,
are
identical
to the target weights.
(T
fJWe define accuracy as the percent of
target material described
correctly by a response.
Likewise, we define
reliability
(of a viewer)
as
the
percent of a response that
is correct.
The figure of merit
is the product
of the
two;
to obtain a high figure of merit,
a viewer's description of a
target must be largely correct and contain few extraneous
images.
In
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fuzzy set terminology,
these quantities for the yth target/response pair
are as
follows:
2 wk (Rj D Tj) k
Accuracy,
=
a,
=
—
Zwk T, k
E^CRjnTOk
Reliability
=
r
= —
'
Swk Rj, k
k
and
Figure of Merit
j -
Mj
- a
(
x r
.
»
The sum over k
is called the sigma count
in fuzzy
set terminology.
The
sigma
count
is defined as
the sum of
the membership values,
ji,
for
the elements
of the response,
target,
and their intersection—that
is, Ru
7), and
(Rj H
7j)
,
respectively.
2.
(U) Target and Response Data
j
The universe of target and response elements
is drawn from the
August,
1988,
experiment.
We define three element categories:
functions,
relationships,
and objects.
These categories are weighted
1.0,
0.75,
and
0.50,
respectively.
(U) Table
1 shows the universe of target and response elements and the formal definition
of T and R.
All scans were considered together, rather than scan by scan. The various scaling
weights are shown in parentheses adjacent to the appropriate factors.
The relative weights are
derived from SRI’s best assessment of the operational
utility of each element.
The response
membership values, J?(p), were determined from the raw data (see Appendices A and B).
The
target membership
values,
T(p),
were
determined by
SRI
personnel
during
a
site
visit
in
September, 1988.
All elements, however, were determined by an SRI analyst post hoc in order
to allow a more accurate assessment of reliability.
Elements derived from the response were
taken literally.
Those elements having no corresponding element in the target
(i.e., T(p) = 0)
were assigned the average weight of elements present in the target.
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iii-f