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Final
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December
1984
TARGET SEARCH TECHNIQUES
(U)
By:
HAROLD
E. PUTHOFF
EDWIN
C. MAY
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Final
Report
Covering the Period
15 November
1983
to
15 December
1984
TARGET SEARCH TECHNIQUES
(U)
By:
HAROLD
E. PUTHOFF
EDWIN
C. MAY
December
1984
Prepared
for:
DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY
ESU
83-144
USAINSCOM
FORT GEORGE
G. MEADE, MARYLAND
20755
Attention:
LT. COL. BRIAN BU2BY
SRI
Pro i ect 6600
WARNING NOTICE
CENTER LANE SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM.
RESTRICT DISSEMINATION TO THOSE WITH VERIFIED ACCESS.
CATEGORY
Approved by:
ROBERT
S. LEONARD, Director
Radio Physics Laboratory
DAVID
D. ELLIOTT,
Vice President
Research and Analysis Division
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Classification Guide
Dated
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1983
DECLASSIFY ON:
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This document
consists of 33
pages.
941/CL-0026
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CONTENTS (U)
(U)
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
iv
(U)
LIST OF TABLES
iv
I
(U)
OBJECTIVE
II
(U)
INTRODUCTION
A.
(U)
General
B.
(U)
Search Categories
HI
(U) METHOD OF APPROACH
A.
(U)
Continuum Search—Statistical Approach
B.
(U)
Discrete Search—Statistical Approach
V
(U)
EXPERIMENTAL
A.
(U)
General
B.
(S/NF/CL-3)
Simulation of “Bug” Search (Continuum)
1.
(U)
Condition
I
2.
(U)
Condition
II
C.
(S/NF/CL-3)
Simulation of “Agent” Search,
Facility Level
(Continuum)
D.
(S/NF/CL-3)
Simulation of “Agent”/Facility Search (Continuum).
.
.
E.
(U)
Binary Search (Discrete/Continuum)
F.
(U)
Computer Assisted Search (CAS)
1.
(U)
Basic Investigation (Simulation)
2.
(U)
Location of Real-World Targets (Known)
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3.
(U)
CAS Against Real Targets (Application)
G.
(S/NF/CL-3)
Client-Controlled Long-Distance Test of “Agent/
Building Search,
Facility Level (Continuum)
1.
(U)
Long-Distance “Agent” Search
2.
(U)
Long-Distance “Building” Search
V
(U)
Summary
A.
(U)
Overview
B.
(U)
Focus of Investigation
C.
(U)
Recommendations for Follow-On Actions
-
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ILLUSTRATIONS
Search Matrix
Binary Approach to Target Location
Probability of Error,
1^., with and without Use of a Simple 5-Bit
Majority-Vote Code
Random Binary Task Performance,
Percipient #642
Random Binary Task Performance,
Percipient #730
Choice Histogram for Percipients 531 and 859
TABLES
Table of Mean Distances
HP 41-C Program:
Cumulative Binomial Distribution
HP 41-C Calculator Program for 5-Bit Majority Vote Code
Binary Data Summary
Results of Basic Investigation
Long-Distance "Agent”
Search:
Client-Determined Target Sites
-
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I
OBJECTIVE (U)
(S/NF/CL-3)
The objective of this effort
at SRI International
is to investigate a
particular aspect of psychoenergetic phenomena called Target Search.
This search technique
is designed to determine the location of objects,
individuals, and
facilities where the potential
target area can range from room- to global-sized dimensions.
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II INTRODUCTION (U)
A.
(U)
General
(S/NF/CL-3) A continuing requirement in military operations
is determining the
location of tactical and strategic military targets of interest, whose positions are not known or
are known only approximately.
Examples range from the location of
(1)
a “bug”
in a secure
facility,
(2) a command post in a tactical situation or
(3)
a submarine in a strategic problem.
(S/NF/CL-3) A potential match to the above requirement
is a claimed ability in the
broad field of psychoenergetic functioning; namely, the ability to search for and locate water,
oil, minerals,
objects,
individuals,
sites of archaeological significance, and so forth.
This
ability can be contrasted to the related psychoenergetic ability “remote viewing,”
in the
following manner.
In remote viewing, the RVer
is given location information (coordinates,
beacon’
agent, picture), and (RV) asked to provide data on target content
(e.g., BW R&D
facility);
in “search,” the RVer
is given information on target content, then asked to provide
location data
(e.g., position on a map).
The two functions are thus complimentary to each
other.
(U)
The ability to locate targets
is most often referred to as “dowsing”
in the Western
literature, and “biophysical effect (BPE) ”
in the Soviet/East Bloc literature.
In this report,
we shall refer to such techniques simply as “search.”
Although much of the literature
is
anecdotal, * attempts to quantify the ability and to determine
its mechanisms have been
pursued, t
* (U)
For the most comprehensive and authoritative survey of the claims for dowsing, see
Christopher Bird, The Divining Hand ,
E.
P. Dutton, New York, NY (1979).
t(U)
See, for example, papers published by Z. V. Harvalik, beginning 1970,
in The
American Dowser, the journal of the American Society of Dowsers,
(Harvalik
is the
ex-director of the basic research group of the U.S. Army Engineering Laboratories,
Fort
Belvoir, VA.)
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(S/NF/CL-3)
The goal of the present effort
is to research the literature, then perform
laboratory experimentation to determine whether, and to what degree, such functioning
is a
viable candidate for application to intelligence-collection tasks.
This includes determining
the best methods and efficiencies of various search techniques, and the appropriate
statistical
analyses for evaluating results.
B.
(U)
Search Categories
(S/NF/CL-3)
Search tasks
fall into two broad categories of effort—continuum and
discrete.
In the “continuum” search category,
a target of interest
is typically to be located
on a continuum area map, such as a topographical map or navigational chart
(e.g.,
for a tank
or submarine,
respectively).
For this category, the target/response distances and circular
error probabilities (CEPs)
constitute the
statistics of interest in evaluation.
(S/NF/CL-3)
In the “discrete” search category,
a target of interest
is associated with a
discrete number of possibilities
(for example, the location of a missile in one of K
silos,
or
the location of an agent in one of K cities).
For this category, the appropriate
statistic of
interest in the evaluation of a series of location attempts
is a comparison against the simple
binomial
statistic of the probability of obtaining an observed R hits in N trials, by chance.
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UNCLASSIFIED
III METHOD OF APPROACH (U)
A.
(U)
Continuum Search—Statistical Approach
(U)
The first-order requirement in carrying out a continuum-search effort
is to
determine an appropriate method of evaluation.
The approach chosen here
is a modification
of a procedure developed by Dean Radin
at Bell Laboratories for evaluating
geometric—distance scores in a perceptual task.*
In this approach, one begins by assuming
that the target area of interest
is in the form of a square
(a useful, but not necessary,
requirement). A grid system
is then laid down over the square in the form of an n x n
matrix (20 X
20,
say),
to yield n
separate grid elements (400 for a 20 X 20 grid,
for
example).
Using this grid as an approximation to a continuum, one can then calculate
exactly the a priori chance distribution that any given search response would
lie
at any given
distance from a particular target location.
From this, an evaluation can be made on the
quality of response
(see Figure
1).
(U)
In the 20
- X 20 case,
for a target square not on the edge, there
is one chance in
400 of the searcher landing directly on the target square by chance, four chances in 400 of
being one unit away (above, below, and to the sides), four chances of being yjl units away,
and so forth.
Counting out from any particular target square, the inhibition of responses
beyond the boundary of the overall square
(at certain distances in certain directions)
is easily
taken into account in the counting process.
Thus, an exact calculation can be made on the
basis of straightforward counting (taking into account edge effects)
for the probabilities of
all
possible target/response pair distances.
One result of these calculations for the 20 X 20 case
(taken as standard)
is Table
1,
in which the mean distance from each given target square to
all possible response squares in the grid
is displayed.
As a reference, the grand mean
chance expectation (MCE)
target response pair distance in the 20 X 20 grid
is 10.41 units.
*(U)
Radin,
D., “Evaluating Geometric Distance Scores in a Perceptual Task,” Research in
Parapsychology 1981, pp.
163-164, Scarecrow Press,
Inc., Metuchen, NJ (1982).
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FIGURE
(U)
SEARCH MATRIX
(U)
Thus,
if the search area of interest
is 20 km X 20 km, the MCE distance for random
attempts to locate a random target
is 10.41 km.
B.
(U)
Discrete Search—Statistical Approach
(U)
In the discrete search case (one choice from among K possibilities), the
appropriate evaluation
statistic
is the cumulative binomial distribution.
The parameters are as
follows.
(U)
We define a
trial as a single attempt to pinpoint a target as being at one of K
possible target locations.
Let p = 1/K be the probability of a chance hit in the location
attempt in a single
trial, and q =
1 - p be the probability of a chance failure in a single
trial.
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Table
(U)
TABLE OF MEAN DISTANCES
(Beginning Row
1,
left
to right,
square
(1,1),
(1,2),..,
through upper left-hand quadrant
of
x
20 matrix)
14.65585,
. 20876,
14.04415,
11.50216,
13.48960,
10.86094,
. 99671,
10.29114,
12.56888,
9.79695,
. 20876,
9.38139,
11.91840,
9.04665,
11.69934,
8.79433,
11.55270,
8.62554,
11.47920,
8.54097,
14.04415,
11.91840,
13.40802,
11.20110,
12.83167,
10.54992,
. 31976,
9.97108,
11.87571,
9.46895,
11.50216,
9.04665,
. 20110 ,
8.70647,
10.97406,
8.45003,
10.82211,
8.27849,
10.74596,
. 19254,
13.48960,
11.69934,
12.83167,
lO
. 97406
,
12.23547,
10.31541,
. 70606,
9.72981,
11.24699,
9.22171,
10.86094,
8.79433,
10.54992,
8.45003,
10.31541,
8.19049,
10.15851,
8.01685,
10.07989,
7.92986,
12.99671,
11.55270,
. 31976,
10.82211,
11.70606,
10.15851,
11.16104,
9.56839,
10.68848,
9.05630,
10.29114,
8.62554,
9.97108,
. 27849,
9.72981,
8.01685,
9.56839,
7.84182,
9.48751,
7.75412,
12.56888,
11.47920,
11.87571,
10.74596,
. 24699,
10.07989,
10.68848,
9.48751,
10.20417,
8.97343,
9.79695,
8.54097,
9.46895,
8.19254,
9.22171,
7.92986,
9.05630,
7.75412,
8.97343,
7.66607
Grand Mean
= 10,41513
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
In a series of location attempts, the important statistic
is the probability of obtaining at least
R hits in N trials, by chance, because this distribution establishes the basis against which the
efficiency of the search method must be compared.
This
statistic
is given exactly by the
cumulative binomial
(Bernoulli)
distribution.
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Probability of at least
_
-y
N!
R hits in N trials
-
it
(N-i)l
Although probabilities are listed for several representative values in published tables,*
it
is
perhaps most convenient to calculate them directly with the aid of a standard programmable
calculator. A program for the Hewlett-Packard HP 41-C series calculator
is provided for
convenience as Table
2.
(U)
To complete discussion of the binomial distribution, we note that the mean
number of hits expected by chance in N trials
is p = Np, while the standard deviation
(measure of expected spread about the mean)
is given by
cr = VNpq
(U)
Throughout the
statistical evaluations, whether for continuum or discrete search,
we shall adhere to the standard convention that a result obtained in testing can be interpreted
as evidence for psychoenergetic access
if the probability of that result occurring by chance
is
less than p = 0.05.
(LJ)
Tables of Cumulative Binomial Probability Distribution
,
Harvard University Press,
Cambridge, MA (1955).
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Table
(U)
HP 41-C PROGRAM:
CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
01+LBL
"CUM BIN”
44+LBL
SCI
RUN
46 X=6?
04 STO
4?
GTO
”fi PRIORI
P?“
STO
06 PROMPT
49+LBL
6? STO
58 RCL
88 LN
RCL
09 STO 83
/
18 RCL 02
53 RCL
CHS
*
STO
+
14 STO 04
57 ST-
15 LN
16 STO
59 ST-
"NR HITS?"
60 RCL
18 PROMPT
X=0 ?
STO 06
62 GTO
"NR TRIALS?"
hT 0
PROMPT
64+LBL
22 STO
65 RCL
23+LBL
LN
RCL
0?
67 RCL
25 RCL
+
-
69 EtK
STO
70 ST+
RCL
RCL
*
72 TONE
38 RCL
PSE
RCL
*
75 ST+
+
76 RCL
34 STO
-
36 STO
79 rc r
37 RCL
88 X>Y?
38 STO
GTO
39 RCL
82 RCL
40 RCL
”P,
R OR MQRE="
41 X>Y?
flRCL
X
42 GTO
85 RVIEH
43 XOY
BEEP
87 END
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