Approved For Release 2069] & Ei-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN D. (S/NF/CL-3) Simulation of “Agent”/Facility Search (Continuum) (S/NF/CL-3) _A series of trials was undertaken with a special RVer, recommended by the American Society of Dowsers, who responded to an invitation to participate in the SRI search program (#198). An initial exploratory series of eight trials was carried out as in Experiment B, Condition I, (simulation of “bug” search, with a calculator as target object). The results were not beyond chance expectation. Debriefing of the RVer revealed a preference for tasks that involved people, as in locating people, or places inhabited by people. Therefore, a second exploratory series of fifteen trials was performed, the first ten of which repeated the same experiment, but with an individual replacing the object. For the remaining five trials, the target area in which the individual was located was expanded to the SRI complex as in Experiment C above. The overall result in this series also was not beyond chance expectation, but the target/response pair distances were ordered such that there was a trend from larger to smaller distances as the series progressed, which began to approach statistical significance (p = 0.07). Therefore, a more extensive series was planned in which “peopled” locations were to be the targets. (U) For this series, the target area was a > 20 sq. km area (4.8 km xX 4.8 km). The viewer was provided a satellite photograph of the area with a 20 & 20 unit grid overlay. In order to investigate potential differences in targeting strategies, a targeting protocol was prepared for the series in which, on an intermixed basis, the RVer was targeted on being (1) given a photograph of the site, e.g., of a house, (2) told that an experimenter known to the RVer was at a site, (3) told the name of the site (e.g., Stacey’s Bookstore). Twenty-one trials were carried out under this protocol: six under targeting method (1), six under targeting method (2), and nine under targeting method (3). (U) In the 4.8-km-square area, the mean chance expectation distance is 2.5 km. In the 21-trial sequence, the target/response pair distances ranged from a maximum of 3.36 km to a minimum of 0.34 km, with a mean of 1.55 km. This result (a 38 percent reduction from MCE) is statistically significant at p = 1.1 x 10° (U) With regard to the difference in RVer performance between targeting conditions, the mean target/response pair distance was least for the photo-targeting condition (1), median for the person-targeting condition (2), and maximum for the name-targeting condition (3)-—1.15 km, 1.58 km, and 1.80 km respectively. One-way analysis of variance -12- SECRET TER LANE-3/NOFORN Approved For Release. 3003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For RIVINCLAS StFIEDS 800260001-5 (U) shows, however, that the differences between the conditions were not statistically significant. * Furthermore, no statistically-significant ordering of the target/response distances was observed as the series progressed, indicating a level performance throughout the series. E. (U) Binary Search (Discrete/Conlinuum) (U) A “zeroing-in” approach that suggests itself is a sequential method whereby the RVer makes a series of binary decisions to close in, step-by-step, on the target. If one begins with a square map, for example, the sequence of questions would be of the form “left or right half,” followed by “upper or lower half” of the remaining half, followed again by “left or right half” of the remaining square, and so forth, as indicated in Figure 2. After n binary decisions, the designated target area would be narrowed down to 1/2" of the original area (1/2, 1/4, 1/16, 1/32, ...). Assuming a flawless sequence of binary decisions, one could pinpoint a target location relatively quickly by this means. (U) The statistics of binary (p = 1/2) sorting by psychoenergetic means are relatively well known, and on the order of a few percent above chance—this is statistically significant, but is of little use in applications. One is led naturally to consideration of the use of redundancy in one form or another (e.g., repetitive “guessing”), in order to amplify the small statistical advantage available into an overall higher—accuracy result for the basic binary process. As part of the binary—approach study, we investigated implementation of the redundancy concept, reduced to practice in the form of a hand—held calculator programmed for statistical averaging of (psi) inputs by an RVer. (U) The targets for the series described here are the outcomes (black/redt in roulette wheel spins) that are being generated in a double-blind fashion by an experimenter. The task is thus one of determining whether a roulette ball is located in a red or a black bin. As the RVer attempts to identify the ball’s location, several responses are entered into a calculator for statistical averaging as described below. *(U) dfl = 2, df2 = 18, F = 1.43; p < 0.26. t(U) Green 0 and 00 are, for the purposes of this study, taken to correspond to red and black, respectively. -13- UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For “CNCLAS SIFIEI 6-00788R001800260001-5 UNCLASSIFIED FIGURE 2 (U) BINARY APPROACH TO TARGET LOCATION (U) The underlying analytical basis for the experimentation consists of a simple majority—vote—of-five procedure, which we refer to as a 5—bit majority-vote code. Each trial consists of five individual subtrials, with a majority vote (3 or more selections out of 5) constituting the overall trial selection. (In practice, the five-subtrial~sequence can be shortened, because once three selections of a particular alternative have been accumulated, no more are required.) A critical feature of the procedure is that the subtrials are arranged to be independent by means of a calculator programming technique to be described shortly. (U) In the terminology of coding theory, the majority—-vote—of-five procedure constitutes an application of block coding theory in which a (5, 1) block code (block length 5, 1 information bit) is used to correct all single and double errors in the detection of a S-unit block. It can be shown that, with regard to error—correcting coding, no better 2-letter —-14- UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For Release 2003/09/10 sii-ED (U) (binary) 5—place alphabet than the majority-vote code exists,* and the argument holds for all other odd-length (n, 1) block codes. (U) With the probability of being correct in a single subtrial given by P, the probability of a correct majority vote in five independent subtrials is found by application of the binomial distribution to be 3 2 4 5 P(corr) = 10p (1-p) +5p(1-p)+p_. (2) Assuming the RVer’s selections to be in the correct direction, with an average magnitude of P > 0.5, the overall probability of error, 1 — P(corr), for the 5—bit majority-vote code is shown in Figure 3. As can be seen, the error rate decreases dramatically as higher P values are reached. (U) As indicated earlier, a critical element of the procedure is to arrange for the five subtrials to constitute independent attempts at target specification. The procedure chosen is one that is especially amenable to implementation by the use of a programmable calculator—— here one of the HP-41C series. The calculator program used is provided in Table 3. (U) Taking 0 and 1 to represent the two possible outcomes of interest, a ball located in the red bin or black bin, respectively, were one to simply enter a series of 0’s and 1’s into a calculator memory to represent selections, the individual entries would not likely constitute independent events. To overcome this shortcoming, the calculator is programmed such that the 0 and 1 buttons used to enter selections do not, in fact, provide direct access to the 0 and 1 memory registers, respectively. Instead, an internal random number generator relabels the 0 and 1 buttons, subtrial to subtrial, on a random basis. The RVer’s task, therefore, reduces to one of simply pressing the “right” button, subtrial to subtrial, to accumulate entries in the “right” memory location. As a result, the five subtrials are effectively independent by virtue of the random renumbering of the buttons. Although such a procedure may seem somewhat abstract as a means to implement the binary search procedure, the *(U) Slepian, D., “A Class of Binary Signaling Alphabets,” The Bell System Technical Journal, Vol. 35, pp. 203-234 (January 1956). -~15—- UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For "SINCLAS SIFIED 800260001-5 NO MAJORITY-VOTE CODE J Pe (PROBABILITY OF ERROR) 5-BIT MAJORITY-VOTE CODE 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 A PRIORI PROBABILITY, P, OF CORRECTLY PERCEIVING A SINGLE BIT UNCLASSIFIED FIGURE 3 (U) PROBABILITY OF ERROR, Pe, WITH AND WITHOUT USE OF A SIMPLE 5-BIT MAJORITY-VOTE CODE (U) potential for increasing accuracy on the basis of multiple choices per decision, statistically averaged, is considered well worth the effort. (U) As a subtrial series is carried out, the calculator registers the inputs until three entries have been accumulated in either the 0 or 1 memory register (which takes as few as -16- UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For UNCLAS SEER ORO" 800260001-5 Table 3 HP 41-C CALCULATOR PROGRAM FOR 5-—BIT MAJORITY VOTE CODE BIeLBL “BLOCK N° @2 “BLK L?- 63 PROMPT 64 STO 06 85 2 @6 STO 29 Q7 TIME 63 LN @9 ABS 16 STO 36 118 12 STO 68 {3 STO @1 14 STO @2 15 STO 63 16 STG 04 1? 1 18 STO @5 19¢LBL "BLK BIT° 26 XE@ "RNG SUB" 21 "READY" 22 TONE 7 23 TOKE € 24 PROMPT 25 + 26 RCL 29 2? MOD 28 STO 31 29 } 3@ ST+ IND 31 31 ST+ 62 32 RCL 66 33 1 34+ 3 2 36 7 3? RCL IND 31 38 X=¥? 39 GTO “BLKDOHE™ 46 GTO “BLK BIT" 41¢LBL "BLKDONE™ 42 FIX @ 43 BEEP UNCLASSIFIED 44 *CHOICE=" 45 ARCL 31 46 AVIEW 4? STOP 48 °RNSHER?« 49 PROMPT 5@ STO 6? 51 RCL 31 52 RCL 8? 93 X=7? 34 GTO “BLK HIT" 55 RCL 31 56 1 a7 + 58 RCL 29 59 MOD 66 STO 32 61 RCL IND 32 62 GTO “END 63¢LBL “BLK HIT" 64 1 65 ST+ 04 66 RCL IND 31 67¢LBL END" 68 ST+ @3 69 TONE 6 76 “TRIAL NR=* 71 ARCL @5 72 AVIEW 73 STOP 74 FIX t 79 RCL @3 76 RCL @2 7s 78 106 79 4 88 TONE 6 81 "% BIT HITS=" 82 ARCL X 83 AVIEW 64 STOP 85 RCL 64 86 RCL 65 -17- UNCLASSIFIED 87 88 168 89 * 98 TONE 6 91 °% BLK HITS=" 92 ARCL X 93 AYIER 94 STOP 95 8 96 STO 66 97 STO 61 98 1 99 ST+ 85 10@ GTO “BLK BIT" 101 END. @1¢LBL “RNG SUB" 82 9821 63 RCL 36 Ad + 85 .21132?7 06 + 07 FRC 68 STO 38 @9 RCL 29 18 * 1 INT 12 END Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For "UNCLASS Q: HED 800260001-5 IFIE (U) three, and up to five entries), at which point the calculator program announces the overall trial result. (U) To date, two RVers have completed a 100-trial series under the protocols described; their results are summarized in Table 4 and in Figures 4 and 5. In the figures, cumulative percentage hits are plotted for both the subtrial data and the majority—vote trial data. As is evident by inspection, the 5-bit majority-vote procedure amplifies the statistical advantage of the subtrial entries, as could be expected in the case of extra-chance RV performance. In particular, whereas only one of the two RVer’s subtrial data displayed in Table 4 were significant [evaluated by Eq. (1), both RVer’s 5—bit majority—vote data independently reached significance. Table 4 (U) BINARY DATA SUMMARY Summary Statistics Summary Statistics Percipient (subtrials) (5-bit majority-vote trials) #642 = 52.6% (219/416) = 60.0% (60/100) = 0.14 = 0.028 #730 55.0% (220/400) = 60.0% (60/100) = 0.023 = 0.028 Combined = 53.8% (439/816) = 60.0% (120/200) Data = 0.015 = 2.8 x 10-3 UNCLASSIFIED (U) The use of a calculator as a convenient on-line psi-amplification tool appears to hold promise as a first step in the development of a binary search procedure. The study shows that the accuracy of the individual bit choices can be amplified by the use of the statistical averaging procedure described. The level of accuracy reached (60 percent) although statistically significant, needs to be strengthened by further research before binary search meets minimal requirements for application efforts. -18—- UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 UNCLASSIFIED 80 5-BIT MAJORITY-VOTE CODE 70 60/100 (60%) (p = 2.8 X 1072) a NO MAJORITY-VOTE CODE (SINGLE-BIT RATE) 219/416 (52.6%) PERCENTAGE CORRECT —— cumulative o1 oOo 0) 20 40 60 80 100 120 UNCLASSIFIED TRIAL NUMBER FIGURE 4 (U) RANDOM BINARY TASK PERFORMANCE, PERCIPIENT #642 -19—- UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 UNCLASSIFIED 80 5-BIT MAJORITY-VOTE CODE 70 60/100 (60%) (p = 2.8 X 10-2) 2 1 2 8 -_ Art V An ° VARMA™ ss | NO MAJORITY-VOTE CODE eo 50 | (SINGLE-BIT RATE) 220/400 (55%) oc oO oO uu oO << |! LL oO ec Lu a i} 20 °9 20 40 60 80 100 120 TRIAL NUMBER UNCLASSIFIED FIGURE 5 (U) RANDOM BINARY TASK PERFORMANCE, PERCIPIENT #730 = 20- Approved For reed NGLAS OER cozesro0: 800260001-5
Approved For Release 2494@/4@ ErIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN F. (U) Computer Assisted Search (CAS) (S/NF/CL-3) To determine the applicability of computers as aids in the general search problem, we have developed a graduated series of studies——beginning at a basic level of investigation and evolving toward real-time DoD applications. As a first step in determining the degree to which a computer can be used as an aid in search problems, an experiment was conducted that demonstrated that an abstract computer—generated target could be located by psychoenergetic means. The next stage involved testing whether an “association” between an abstract computer “target” and an actual target could be established. 1. (U) Basic Investigation (Simulation) (U) We have conducted an experiment to determine if an abstract computer— generated target can be located by psychoenergetic means. To accomplish this, we designed an experiment that would also provide information with regard to two possible mechanisms: e To search in space for a target that remains fixed for the duration of a trial. © To search for a target that is rapidly moving in space. (U) The first case is the more familiar “dowsing” situation; a target, whose location is unknown, must be found by psychoenergetic means. The second case was established on the basis of earllier research at SRI. Namely, that it is possible for an individual to initiate an action at the proper time to optimize the result of a psychoenergetic experiment. (U) During the CAS experiment, seven individuals were asked to contribute 50 trials each. To test the “dowsing” hypothesis, the target location was fixed throughout a trial. To test the timing hypothesis, the target location was changed once each millisecond. Dynamic versus static target trials were determined by a balanced random protocol that was the same for each of the participants, Furthermore, they were unaware that there were two test conditions. A bounded area representing the perimeter of a 20 xX 20 cell matrix was shown to the participant, who could register his/her response by moving a graphics pointing device (mouse), and could press a button to indicate the choice. Each participant was told that the target could be any place within the display boundary, and when the moment “seemed right,” could register his/her choice by pressing the button on the mouse. Each -21- SECRET CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5