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paradoxes and some scientists have suggested quantum mechanisms to explain
RP without violating the basic conservation theorems
of physics.
Mattuck^
describes one such mechanism and shows that effects on a macroscopic scale
are consistent with the theory.
While these hypotheses do not prove the
existence of RP phenomena, when coupled with the findings discussed in
Appendix A they do strongly indicate that further research
is appropriate.
In view of the obvious military value
of being able to disturb sensitive
enemy equipment such as computers ,
locks ,
switches ,
codes ,
etc .
,
it
is to
the advantage of the Army to assess the validity of RP claims.
3.
< s )
objective
(S)
This experiment
is designed to replicate the type of experiments
described in Appendix A under more rigorously controlled conditions
in order
to evaluate the claims of having demonstrated the RP phenomenon.
While
it
is
recognized that the risk of failure is extremely great, the potential return on
investment
is correspondingly great.
4.
(S)
STATUS
(S)
Past research
in RP has been discussed elsewhere.
The current
effort
in RP techniques
is part of the DOD-wide program called GRILL FLAME.
Other GRILL FLAME projects involve "remote viewing"
- the ability to access
and describe, by means of mental processes, information blocked from ordinary
perception by distance or shielding.
Prior investigations and applications
of remote viewing over the past decade have been very encouraging.
The
current project
is the first GRILL FLAME investigation of RP.
5.
(S)
PLAN
(S)
Expressed in simplest terms,
the experiment may be described as
follows
(Appendix B gives
a detailed technical description):
a.
(S)
A truly random sequence of 0's and
l’s
(binary sequence)
is generated by processing and sampling the behavior of a noise source or
random event generator
(REG).
b.
(S)
The RP participant
is instructed to bias the composition
of the sequence in favor of I’s or O's by exercising mental processes.
c.
(S)
Feedback
is provided the participant,
so that he can
instantaneously be aware of the degree to which he is succeeding.
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d.
(s)
The associated computer equipment simultaneously
carries
out a statistical analysis of the sequence
of digits until it can
be deemed perturbed (biased as instructed) or not whereupon the trial
(or
test)
is
ended.
(S)
The testing phase of the experiment consists of a large number
of such tests by- each participant.
( S )
The basic elements of the' experiment are
:
a.
(s)
Sources
of Randomness:
Two sources for genuinely
random binary sequences are to be employed as well as one pseudo-random
binary sequence generator.
The radioactive decay of prometheum 147
(147pR) }
occurs by the emission of beta particles which are readily detected.
The
other random event generator
is an electronic noise diode which is subject
to avalanche discharge which
is also easily detected electronically.
The
theory of both these devices and the distribution of random events
(3 -emission
or avalanche discharge)
is well understood and has been well verified experi-
*
mentally.’
*
The random events are Poisson distributed in time.
Each
time a random event, occurs,
it will trigger a change in a flip-flop device
-
from one to zero or from zero to one depending upon the state upon detection
of the random event.
The flip-flop device thus randomly switches back and
forth between zero and one with the occurrence of random events.
This device
is sampled periodically
(at intervals much longer than the average event rate)
to produce the desired random binary sequence.
(S)
In addition,
a pseudo-random binary sequence will also be utilized
as needed.
This differs from a random sequence in that, although the numbers
appear to be random, they are actually calculated by the computer from a
starting number or "seed" and thus
for any given seed are deterministic.
If
the RP phenomenon should exist ,
a great
deal can be determined about the
nature of the phenomenon by the difference to which truly random and determi-
nistic events are affected by
it.
b*
(S )
Analysis Capability:
The random
(or pseudo-random)
binary sequence must be statistically analyzed in order to determine if it
is actually random or is biased.
Computational capability is also used to
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govern the sampling process described above, to drive the displays and to
catalog and store certain results of the tests.
The analysis
is carried
out
in real time in order to provide effective feedback to the RP participant.
c.»
(s)
Feedback Display:
In order that the RP participant can
benefit from almost instantaneous feedback, he will be provided with a color
video display driven by the output from the statistical analysis of the
binary sequence.
A variety of preprogrammed displays will be made available
including simple clock motion or "race-car" displacement as indicators of
perturbation as well as more technical ones such
as the progress of the
statistical pawn
in the sequential analysis diagram
(see Appendix B).
An
auditory feedback channel will also be provided wherein the frequency or
intensity of a tone
(or complex waveform) varies to indicate perturbation.
The participant
is expected to choose the particular feedback mode which he
feels
is most effective.
(S)
It has been tacitly assumed that any RP effect would act upon the
random event generator.
This assumption will be checked by recording the
incidence of random events,
the resulting binary sequence, and the output
of the statistical analysis on magnetic disc storage for subsequent stage-
to-stage analysis.
The analysis of this for consistency along with the
recorded output of;the feedback channel
(video or audio tape) will isolate
the source of any perturbation as being in the random source,
the computer
equipment or the display equipment.
(S)
We intend to address the two problems with previous experiments by
first focusing our attention upon a limited number
(nine or less) of partici-
pants who have shown previous expertise as remote viewers.
By using
experienced remote viewers ,
it
is anticipated that we should observe any
effect within this limited number, rather than having to average over large
numbers
of individuals
as
in the data base experiments.
Also, by using more
sensitive analysis techniques than have been used previously,
even a small
effect can be stabilized.
(S)
Secondly,
to assure ourselves that the noise sources are
sufficififttly free of even subtle
(but normal) electronic nonrandomness, we
HEJ6ASA11* TO FOKEIGK
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intend to use the most rigorous construction and design techniques possible
(battery power, optically coupled signals,
etc.) to isolate the sources from
normal environmental influences.
Furthermore, the noise sources will be
chosen for their internal simplicity
and thus may be amenable to realistic
mathematical modelling.
Using the models, we are able
to calculate by Monte
Carlo techniques
a noise source's dependence on various external and internal
physical parameters.
(S)
The experiment will be conducted in two phases.
Phase
I consists
of the assembly and checkout of the apparatus
and exhaustive validation
testing.
During the validation testing the entire system will be exercised
over a wide range of environmental and testing conditions to assume the
randomness of the binary sequence and the proper functioning of the computer
and displays.
Appendix C provides further information on the validation
testing procedures.
(S)
Phase
II consists of the actual RP participant testing.
There are
three primary independent variables that may be varied during the course of
the investigation.
Two of them,
the random source
(beta decay, noise diode,
pseudo random) and the mode of feedback have been discussed.
The prime
independent variable
is the presence or absence of an RP participant.
The
final measure of significance of the experiment
is essentially whether a
consistent difference can be discerned in the randomness of the binary
sequence when the apparatus
is operating with and without an RP participant.
The dependent variable, provided by the statistical analysis of the binary
sequence,
is a quantitative measure of the degree to which the composition
of the sequence differs from what would be expected by chance.
(Details of
the statistical analysis
are provided in Appendix
B.
)
For individual trials,
the criterion for success will be that the odds against chance expectation be
greater than
20:1.
The first four months
of;the investigation will be used
as
a pilot period during which participants will familiarize themselves with
the experiment and explore various techniques
in a learning mode.
This
period will also be used to optimize the device parameters.
(S)
During the final two months of the investigation,
each participant
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will be asked to contribute 100 trials.
The following is a typical
succession of events during an RP trial session:
The participant and experimenter will discuss
the program status to date.
If the participant feels that
set or circum-
stance are unfavorable to his participation,
the session will be postponed.
The variables or other changes
in the experiment
will be described to the participant to whatever extent desired.
The participant will select whatever mode of
feedback he prefers for the trials for the impending session.
The participant initiates successive trials at
his own pace
at the instant of his choosing until the
(nominally)
30-minute
session
is concluded or sooner if the participant wishes.
The participant
is then debriefed.
He is told of
the outcomes of the trial, the statistical significance or lack thereof
and given the answers to any other questions concerning the session or his
cumulative performance
.
(U)
At no time will any participant be exposed to radiation or be
instrumented for monitoring any physiological function
- even by remote
sensors.
No drugs, hypnosis, special .Sensory or proprioceptive stimuli,
liminal ,
or subliminal,
electrical,
or electromagnetic, will be used.
(U)
After a participant has contributed one hundred trials, we will
determine the number of trials that had odds against chance expectation of
greater than
20:1.
If this total number of runs
is greater than ten (the
number required by exact binomial calculation to meet odds against chance
of greater than 20:1) then we will declare that participant to have a signifi-
cant result.
To assess whether the entire investigation is significant, we
shall combine the results of the six participants using standard statistical
procedures.
(S)
One primary consideration in the planning of the experiment
is
assuring the credibility of the findings.
If positive results are reported,
critics will challenge virtually every aspect of the test and data analysis.
The following measures are being taken to reduce the vulnerability of the
experiment to attack.
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a.
(S)
Safeguards Against Deception:
The entire experiment
is being carried out twice;
once at the facilities
of SRI,
International,
in Menlo Park, California, and duplicated
in substance
at Redstone Arsenal.
it
Alabama.
The two experiments are to use almost identical apparatus and
RP participants.
The experiment at Redstone Arsenal, however, will utilize
independently acquired and assembled equipment and will be conducted by
US Army MICOM scientists.
In addition to allaying any question of manipula-
tion of equipment or concealed means
of affecting the course of individual
tests built into the system
(barring large scale collusion, of course),
the
duplicate test provides a means of checking repeatability of results.
The
equipment in the testing room with the participant cannot be used to program
the computer and can only be used for feedback display and to allow the
participant /experimenter to initiate the test, select among various displays
or similar preprogrammed options.
All equipment subject to tampering which
could bias or invalidate the test will be located in a separate, locked room.
The susceptibility of the equipment to remotely applied agents such as
radiation, ultrasonics,
etc., will be ascertained,
as far as practical,
in
Phase
I.
The recorded data from each trial session will be secured in
a
manner comparable to classified material immediately upon completion of
the session.
b.
( S)
Validity of Data Sample:
All data taken in Phase
II will
be saved and made available for further analysis if the data analysis tech-
niques should be questioned.
No data will be discarded.
If any part of the
data taken subsequent to the four-month pilot period is not included in the
combined statistical assessment,
it will be so identified.
Any circumstances
during experimentation which are out of the ordinary will be recorded.
c.
( S)
Validity of Analysis Methodology:
After Phase
I valida-
tion of the functioning of the apparatus,
the entire system will be exercised
using artificially biased binary sequences
(Monte Carlo testing)
to the extent
that the probability of errors of the first and second kind are accurately
This document refers to the US Army MICOM experiment.
A similar
one has been prepared for the contractor ' s experiment
.
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known.
These probabilities can also be calculated probabilistically to
provide an independent check.
Basically we are testing the hypothesis that
the binary sequence is composed of 50% zero's and
50% one's.
An error of
the first kind consists of rejecting this hypothesis when
it
is true; an
error of the second kind consists of accepting the hypothesis when it
is
false.
The previously cited criteria for each trial of judging the sequence
to be perturbed if the odds against its occurrence by chance are greater
than 20:1 correspond to a probability of error of the first kind of
.05.
d.
(S)
Influence of Uncontrolled Parameters:
It can be
endlessly hypothesized that such uncontrolled factors as solar storms,
cosmic radiation,
the phases of the moon,
etc., may affect the experiment.
In some cases,
the threshold values at which the level of the parameter
might be significant can be determined.
In general, however, we rely on two
safeguards to minimize any effect due to uncontrolled parameters.
During
validation testing and before and after trial sessions,
the experimental
apparatus will be exercised and any anomalous behavior recorded.
Second,
the chief independent variable
- presence or absence of RP participant
-
should be uncorrelated with the uncontrolled parameters, hence a clear
dependence of any measured RP effect upon presence of a participant can be
attributed to the participant.
In other words,
it would be highly improbable
that any uncontrolled parameters would be effective only when the RP partici-
pant
is present.
e.
(S)
Interpretation of Results:
This experiment
is an attempt
to determine if remote perturbation as defined exists.
The nature of the
experiment was suggested by earlier research which has claimed some degree
of success.
The scope of this project does not permit much extension in the
list of independent variables.
As a result, such potentially important
variables
as shielding, device/participant separation or the simultaneous use
of multiple participants cannot be investigated.
(S)
It has been assumed that if any RP effect
is detected it is due to
the designated participant.
Obviously,
there
is
a large number of individuals
who might be
in a position to exert an RP influence on the device,
in
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particular, the experimenter.
No attempt has been made in the design of
the experiment to isolate the agent of any RP influence.
Neither has any
attempt been made to distinguish between
RP and precognition which
(if it
exists) could permit the participant to initiate the trials
in anticipation
of a favorable sequence and achieve the same result.
(S)
At the end of the current program, the result can be characterized
in one of three ways as follows:
Positive :
Both the contractor and the government
experiments meet or surpass the overall criteria stated on page 5 .
Negative
:
Neither the contractor nor the
government experiments meet the stated criteria for the entire experiment
or the overall performance of a single subject.
Indeterminate:
Anything other than positive
or negative as defined above.
(S)
If the result
is positive,
further experiments will be undertaken
to determine the limitations of the phenomenon for military exploitation.
Such experiments would include an assessment of the effects of distance and
shielding, possible interference from other physical phenomena and the
potential for refinement for greater consistency or sharper definition.
It
is also likely that some experimentation would be undertaken to attempt to
determine the mechanism for RP and the physiological source.
(S)
If the result is negative as defined above, but with certain well-
characterized portions showing an effort which is quite unlikely to have
occurred by chance alone, an additional experimental phase will be added to
attempt to discover conditions
(sampling rates,
feedback,
etc.), which might
salvage the program.
Otherwise, this line of investigation will be terminated.
(S)
An indeterminate result may take many forms.
Contingencies have
bson considered for some of these*
If only one of the experiments
is positive, an
additional phase of testing will be undertaken with an exchange of certain
critical hardware as well as other modifications which might be indicated
by an analysis of the results.
In addition,
the stored stage-to-stage data
from both experiments will be reanalyzed on the MICOM CDC 6600 computer.
.
.
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(S) APPENDIX B:
DESCRIPTION OF EXPERIMENTS
(U)
1.
(S)
GENERAL
(S)
We intend to replicate the type of experiments that are repre-
sented by the data base discussed in Appendix
A.
These experiments are to
be carried out, however, under conditions more rigorously controlled.
As
with the earlier experiments,
our proposed experiments contain three basic
elements
a.
(S)
Noise sources
- beta decay, noise diode.
b.
(S)
Analysis and recording techniques
- LSI-11, floppy-
disk-based microcomputer.
c.
(S)
Feedback display
- video system.
(S)
In this section, we describe the assumptions and the independent
and dependent variables that are implied
in such an experiment.
This
section also contains an outline of the hardware and software components
of the complete random number generator system.
2-
(S)
ASSUMPTIONS
(S)
The characteristics of this hypothesized remote perturbation
process. are completely unknown.
The data base suggests that the putative
effect
is quite small,
so it
is reasonable to make a few assumptions about
our experiments:
a.
(S)
The analysis hardware
(LSI-11 microcomputer),
the recording
device
(floppy disk system), and the display devices
(computer-driven video
monitors) are to first order assumed to be stable against remote perturbation
processes,
the effect being assumed to be isolated within the random noise
sources exclusively
(an assumption that
can be checked during the course of
experimentation)
;
b.
(S)
The source of the remote perturbation is assumed to be the
human participant.
Evidence to date tends to support these assumptions.
3 *
(S)
INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
(S)
There are three primary independent variables that may be varied
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appendix c
AN OUTLINE OF TESTING PROCEDURES TO BE USED IN PHASE
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