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their clinical, cognitive, and behavioral psychological heritages,
with
the
natural consequence
that they have concentrated
mainly on the ESP category of psychic tasks, although some
PK work dots their recent literature.
Perhaps the most exten-
sive
class
of
parapsychological
research
has
attempted
to
correlate psychic performance with personality variables. The
age, sex, creativity, openness, hostility, extroversion, motiva-
tion, and intelligence of the participants as indices of ability to
perform ESP tasks have been explored at length, and some sig-
nificant correlations, most notably with positive a priori atti-
tudes toward the tasks and with outgoing, creative personalities,
have been reported from several laboratories.
Other studies
have searched for connections between psychic performance
and dream
recall,
learning and response strategies, memory,
and feedback [55] — [61].
A more aggressive style of parapsychological research has in-
voked a variety of altered states of consciousness in attempts
to enhance psychic process. These have included various natu-
ral and traditional practices, such as sleep, meditation, and pro-
gressive
relaxation
[62] -[67]; more mechanical sensory in-
hibition strategies such
as hypnosis, isolation and “ganzfeld”
[66], [68]— [70]
; and a few controversial efforts with drug-
induced states
[71].
Physiological correlates have also been
sought, using conventional EEG, GSR, and plethysmographic
equipment to monitor neurological, cardiovascular, and mus-
cular response to psytSric effort [35], [72]-[75'|.
The
diffi-
culty of obtaining successful replications of previously positive
results and an observed common tendency of participant per-
formance to deteriorate over time (“decline effect”) have led
to systematic study of the role of the experimenter in eliciting
results,
i.e., to consideration of the possible influence of the
experimenter’s
personal
attitudes, expectations, and style of
interaction with his subjects, as well as the overall environmental
ambience of his laboratory, on the experimental yield [76]-
[81].
Despite
its
present
recalcitrance
toward more systematic
study of psychic phenomena, the richly diverse, rapidly matur-
ing parent field of psychology continues to offer an expanding
array
of modem methodologies and models which could be
brought to bear on increasingly sophisticated study of this sub-
ject.
Computer-assisted linguistic analyses; psychoneurological
studies of attention, perception, and concept formation; social
learning theory and similar approaches to human interactions;
and the emerging formulations of transpersonal and humanistic
aspects of human consciousness,
all bear possible relevance to
comprehension of various aspects of this
ultra-difficult step-
child, but
at the moment, the low level of financial support,
and negative professional peer pressures have discouraged such
enterprise.
The involvement of physicists in psychic research, while con-
siderably less extensive, has been no less dedicated and no less
controversial.
Since the days of Sir Francis Bacon, a number
of
noted
physicists
have made
excursions
into
this
field,
usually to the bemusement and ridicule of their colleagues of
the day.
One of the most notable of these was Sir William
Crookes,
discoverer of the element thallium and pioneer in
the physics of low pressure discharges, whose broadside pro-
fessional and personal battles with the scientific establishment
over
this issue make entertaining, and possibly enlightening,
reading [82].
Sir Isaac Newton was intensely involved in the
study
of alchemy,
including some of its more metaphysical
aspects
[83], and as already mentioned, Lord Rayleigh and
J. J. Thomson were active members of the S.P.R.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEEE, VOL. 70, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 1982
In more recent years the attention of physicists has influenced
development of the field in at least three ways.
First, their in-
terests have focused more on the PK category of problems, i.e.,
the interaction of human consciousness with physical systems,
to balance the predominant ESP interests of the parapsycholo-
gists.
Second, more
sophisticated experimental equipment
than has
typically been
available to the psychological com-
munity has been brought
to bear on the identification and
correlation of very low-level physical effects.
Third, the tradi-
tional theoretical physics formalisms have been directed to the
proposition of various models of psychic phenomena, from
whence has
arisen some hope of establishing the traditional
dialogue
between
critical
experimentation
and
theoretical
hypothesis essential to any ultimate comprehension and appli-
cation of such phenomena.
Typical of the modem
physicist’s specific contributions to
the field have been the development and application of a variety
of electronic random event generators (REG) for the purpose
of identifying and correlating PK
abilities in human subjects
[84] - [93]
, and
similar application of magnetometers [94],
torsional pendula [95]
, lasers [96]
, interferometers [97]
, and
electronic strain gauges
[98],
[99]
to a variety of other PK
tasks. On the theoretical side, a number of applications of quan-
tum
mechanics,
statistical thermodynamics,
electromagnetic
theory, and other formalisms to the representation of psychic
process have been proposed
[ 100] — [113],
and attempts
at
some philosophical correlation of the phenomena with other
previously or presently obscure physical processes have been
suggested
[114].
Again,
despite the open identification of
a few
distinguished
personalities with such
efforts,
a more
broadly held
categorical
rejection of the
field has inhibited
much collaborative or systematic attention to it.
Up to this time, the involvement of engineers with psychic
research has been very recent, very sparse, and very much along
the
lines
of the experimental
physicists.
Beyond our own
program, which will be outlined in some
detail below,
I am
aware of only a very few engineering laboratories addressing
any aspects of the field in any substantial and deliberate way
[115].
These have so far tended to concentrate on applied
physics types of experimentation and on aspects of informa-
tion processing, rather than on more empirical technological
applications.
Another community of scholars to influence the pattern oi
psychic research comprises the statisticians and other applied
mathematicians and logicians who have been concerned with
the proper evaluation and interpretation of the research data
In
the
absence
of any
experiments
displaying
rigid
causa)
replicability,
all of the inferences and hypotheses about psy
chic phenomena have necessarily been based on either anec-
dotal or statistical evidence.
The former defy any systematic
representation; the
latter are vulnerable to alternative inter
pretations and hence to impressionistic bias and argument.
Early
in
the
emergence
of mathematical
statistics
as
ar
integral
discipline,
S.
S.
Wilks found himself involved
in
;
controversy over the validity of the
statistical procedures o
early
psychic
researchers,
and published some recommends
tions for methods that could be applied to telepathy experi
ments [116],
Since that time, much of the commentary fron
the
critical community has addressed perceived flaws in th
statistical methodology underlying the experimental evidenc
[117],
[118], and the advocate community has reacted
b;
paying disproportionate attention to this aspect of their logic
Most
of
the
encyclopaedic
references
in
the
field
contai
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substantial
components
on
the
statistical methods
[119],
and the leading journals regularly display intense dialogues on
specific statistical issues
[ 120] — [ 124]
.
At least one of these
journals routinely refers all articles submitted for publication to
a consultant statistician
as a part of their review process. A
few illustrations of the statistical questions that can
arise in
psychic experiments appear in the detailed examples presented
below.
A number of other disciplines have played roles in the evolu-
tion of the study of psychic process and continue to contribute,
albeit somewhat more peripherally. A succession of philoso-
phers, from Aristotle through James and Bergson to C. D. Broad
in the
present
era, have mused on these topics [21] -[25],
[ 1 25 ] - [ 1 29 ]
. The intersections of the field with anthropology,
theology, and history have been approached from many per-
spectives ranging from aesthetic to analytic, and from dogmatic
to
scholarly
[130] -[134],
Its
relevance
to the study and
practice of medicine has been an enduring and intense debate,
focusing in the present day on the propriety and efficacy of
holistic health strategies and psychic healing.
Isolated instances
of interest on the part of chemists, biologists, geologists, and
archaeologists can
be found, and the application of psychic
techniques
in criminology and law enforcement,
while
less
rigorous than most of the academic efforts, contributes further
anecdotal evidence to the overall data base.
In the arts and
humanities, the topic continues to provide stimuli for a variety
of creative compositions.
Still other areas could be cited, but these become progressively
more satellite than central to the task of this paper.
Rather
than pursuing this disciplinary survey further,
it seems prefer-
able next
to focus
in greater
detail on a few contemporary
studies that can serve to illustrate more specifically the bizarre
phenomena, the awkward and tedious protocols, and the un-
conventional
theoretical concepts
that
arise
in
this
class of
research.
Although these
will provide
a better sense of the
status of the field than any attempt to summarize results from
the diffuse multidisciplinary pattern of effort sketched above,
one general assessment may be useful at this point.
Namely,
throughout all of the work just skimmed, and that sharpened
somewhat below,
I am aware of no reputable investigator who
has claimed,
let alone demonstrated, any psychic experiment
approaching classical scientific replicability.
What have been
put forward are a varied assortment of observations, currently
inexplicable in terms of established science, which display cer-
tain common phenomenological and psychological
features,
and which could have substantial implications for basic physical
theory and ultimate practical applications.
The following ex-
amples are presented in that spirit.
Psychokinesis
The first group of experiments selected as more detailed illus-
trations of contemporary psychic research are drawn from the
general subdomain of PK.
As defined above, this broad cate-
gory of purported psychic phenomena encompasses the possible
influence of human consciousness on the behavior of physical
or biological systems or processes, and comprises several loosely
related
classes of effect
characterized by different scales of
energy, forms of manifestation, replicability, and statistical be-
havior. Confining attention to interactions with physical objects
or systems, the most popularly publicized class features the de-
formation, levitation, or other macroscopic disturbance of ob-
jects,
as commonly propounded by professional performers,
mediums, and various Eastern practitioners [135]—[137].
Al-
though a number of serious efforts have been made to submit
such demonstrations to rigorous scientific
testing, these have
tended to yield only equivocal confirmations, fodder for the
critical community, and some embarrassment and frustration
to the investigators.
Of a yet more bizarre nature are the family of very rare and
spectacular
“poltergeist”
effects,
more
technically
termed
“recurrent spontaneous psychokinesis” (RSPK), wherein are
reported specific major events of levitation, vibration, telepor-
tation, and breakage of a wide range of objects, a variety of
acoustical and electromagnetic phenomena, and various optical
aberrations [138], [139]
.
For years these phenomena were
naively attributed to manifestations of the spirit world, or return
of the dead to “haunted” houses, and inspired countless horror
movies and pulp-magazine articles.
Recently, some order has
been brought to this weird business by systematic surveys of
documented
poltergeist
cases undertaken by A.R.G. Owen,
W. G.
Roll,
J. G.
Pratt, and others
[ 138] — [ 142]
.
In one of
these surveys, 116 cases of reported poltergeist activity, rang-
ing back to the year 1612, were re-examined.
Of these, 92
were found to be associated with particular individuals living
in the affected dwelling, most of whom were adolescents, and
most of whom were affected by some neurological/emotional
ailment,
most
commonly
epilepsy.
Often
a
precipitating
traumatic event could be identified which seemed to initiate
the activity, after which the general pattern involved a period
of relatively mild precursor events, a sequence of major dis-
turbances, and a period of “after shocks,” extending as much
as several weeks beyond the main events. Controlled experimen-
tation on poltergeist phenomena has proven virtually impossible
because
of
their
infrequent
and
unpredictable
occurrence
pattern and because of the delicate physiological and emotional
situations prevailing in most cases, which have taken precedence
over the technical investigations.
Nevertheless, these processes
have retained some fascination because of the magnitude of
the energy
transfer involved and because of
their apparent
correlation with specific types of individuals and neurological
disorders.
The most systematic and persuasive studies of PK, however,
have dealt with much more modest scales of physical distur-
bance, in some cases reaching down to the atomic level.
This
somewhat more viable domain has been addressed by numerous
investigators in various ways, but basically one of two strategies
is followed.
In one approach, relatively simple physical systems
are employed—mechanical,
electrical,
optical, thermal, etc.,—
each of which involves a particular component or process that
is ultra-sensitive to disturbance. The experiment is arranged to
signify such disturbance by a relatively large change in some dis-
play which provides feedback indication to the operator, much
in the spirit of a biofeedback instrument, and simultaneously to
provide some form of permanent data record. Examples of this
class of experiment would include the use of magnetometers,
torsional
pendula,
optical
interferometers,
electronic
strain
gauges, glow discharges [ 143]
, and sensitive thermistors
[ 144]
.
In the second approach, attempt is made to distort the nor-
mal statistical patterns of various random physical processes on
either a microscopic or macroscopic scale.
In a sense, these ex-
periments deal with energy rearrangement within the systems,
i.e., with their information content or entropy, rather than with
energy transfer to the system per se.
The earliest versions of
this class employed dice, or other simple mechanical implements
of well-known statistical behavior [37], [92],
[ 145] — [ 148]
,
but more recent studies have tended to employ more sophisti-
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FRINGES ON SCREEN
FABRY PEROT ETALON
T
~1
Fig.
1. Photograph and schematic of Fabry-Perot interferometer.
cated apparatus, such as electronic REG’s
like those described
in detail below.
Although the first two categories of PK feature more dramatic
effects and thus have enjoyed greater popular attention, the
smaller
scale phenomena seem more amenable to controlled
experimentation
and
theoretical
interpretation, and
the
re-
mainder of this section deals only with such.
Perhaps the most
efficient means of elaborating on this type of research would be
to review briefly the spectrum of such experiments in progress
in
our own laboratory, and then to display and attempt to
interpret data from one of them.
In so doing, we intend no
neglect of other work noted in the references, but simply deal
from greater familiarity.
As examples
of the
first
class of low-level PK experiment
mentioned above, we have in operation a Fabry-Perot optical
interferometer,
a
dual-thermistor
bridge, and
a photoelastic
strain detector.
In the interferometer experiment, shown in
the photograph and schematic of Fig.
1, a Coherent Optics
Instrument #360-370, using a diffuse sodium lamp as source,
is adjusted to produce circular fringes on a screen visible to the
operator (Fig.
2).
Small changes in the separation of the inter-
ferometer plates cause the fringes to migrate radially inward or
outward.
By visual observation of the fringe movement, plate
motions of less than
0. 1 wavelength can be readily detected.
Via a pinhole in the screen, the brightness of the central fringe
is recorded by a photomultiplier/chart recorder system at an
order of magnitude higher sensitivity, thereby preserving quan-
titative output data while the operator simultaneously sees an
attractive optical display of his progress for use as feedback.
the
fringe pattern in a stated direction relative to the normal
baseline
drift of the instrument.
The protocols involve rigid
control and monitoring of the environment of the instrument
and surrounding laboratory, and the interspersing of baseline
responses
with
active PK
efforts
obtained under otherwise
identical conditions, including the position of the operator and
any other personnel relative to the instrument.
In pilot studies
with this device, a variety of fractional-fringe responses were
observed, using several different operators and various initial
interferometer settings.
A more formal procedure has since
been
developed which
provides more precise conditions
for
an ongoing series of trials.
In this protocol, the central fringe
is
set
initially on
a maximum
gradient
position between
a
bright and dark
fringe, and
its progress monitored for subse-
quent periods of baseline or PK effort.
Encouragingly repli-
cable
data have been
obtained from
a number of different
operators, in the form of chart recordings of 5-min PK trials
with interspersed 5-min baseline drifts of the instrument. Using
computerized graphic, regression, and spectral analyses of the
data,
it
is possible to discern characteristics in the hierarchy
of trace derivatives and the Fourier spectra which, while not
definitive, display certain recurrent features [97]
.
No physical
interpretation has been attempted other than to acknowledge
that the observed
fringe migrations could
also be indicative
of slight changes in the index of refraction of the air in the
plate gap or in the wavelength of the light source, as well as of
a displacement of the plates.
The dual-thermistor experiment comprises a much more sen-
sitive version of a multiple-thermistor arrangement on which
tractive optical display ot tus progress lor use as reeaoacK.
suive version
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ere
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ice
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ili-
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als
ng
he
hy
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en-
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Fig. 3.
Dual-thermistor apparatus.
Fig. 2 .
Interferometer fringe patterns.
iSf j'umA
F
j
g-
3 ’
two
0niega
Engineering thermistors,
Model UVA 3254, each with its own electronic bridge and volt-
age source, are connected differentially to a Tektronix
1 A7A
oscilloscope preamplifier and to a visual feedback display
With
suitable ground planes and cable shielding, sensitivities greater
than 0.001 K are obtainable, and by subtracting the two output
signals the major portion of spurious electrical and mechanical
interference is eliminated. The effects of ambient thermal vari-
ations in the laboratory are essentially excluded by enclosing
each of the thermistors in identical Pyrex flasks immersed in
a large liquid reservoir, in which configuration the undisturbed
system
exhibits
stable
baselines over long periods of time.
Using the same interspersed baseline protocol as in the inter-
ferometer experiment, the task of the operator is to achieve an
increase in the reading of one thermistor with respect to the
other or in some more subtle fashion to alter the PK response
relative to the baseline. Some such effects have indeed been ob-
served, but little systematic data have so far been accumulated
on this experiment.
Also in a preliminary stage is an experiment to monitor in-
ternal strain in a solid specimen via photoelastic optical tech-
niques.
Several studies have been reported on the PK deforma-
tion of solids, but most of these have employed conventional
engineering strain gauges or microacoustic sensors as detectors
t
], [99], [135], [149], [150], both of which require sub-
stantial interface electronics before a feedback signal reaches
the operator, leaving unclear the role of the sensor in any pos-
sible PK influence.
Although less sensitive than the electronic
methods, photoelastic techniques have the advantage of relating
he operator more directly to the sensitive element of the ex-
periment via an attractive optical fringe pattern much like that
of the interferometer (Fig. 4).
This equipment and technique
may also be applied to a sensitive levitation experiment wherein
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the object is suspended on a photoelastic lever arm of suitable
dimensions.
Within the second category of low-level PK experiment, we
are employing or are now constructing several devices based on
random physical processes, some macroscopic in scale, others
deriving from atomic-scale processes.
The largest of these in-
To
1^
3 X 10 ft apparatus = shown in Eig- 5, which drops some
10 000
5- in spheres through a “quincunx” array of 336 nylon
pegs in about 12 min.
As a consequence of the multitudinous
collisions with the pegs and with each other, the spheres are dis-
persed into a good approximation of a Gaussian distribution
as they
fall into
19 collecting compartments at the bottom
The goal of the operator is to distort the distribution in some
prescribed fashion to a significant degree compared to empirical
baseline experience.
Photodiode counters mounted in funnels
at the entrance to each bin provide real-time digital displays of
the bin populations to supplement the more qualitative feedback
of the growing ball stacks seen by the operator and to provide
quantitative data for on-line statistical analysis.
Fig. 5 shows
a typical baseline distribution for this device and a distorted
distribution obtained in a particular PK effort.
Full statistical
analysis of the significance of any particular achieved pattern
is a challenging problem
in
its own right,
since
it must deal
with a combination of 19 bin populations, each of which has
its own
empirical
baseline mean and standard deviation
all
constrained by total ball count.
A somewhat similar experiment, not yet refined, employs a
device
which
allows
small
metallic
or
dielectric
spheres
to
bounce on an optically
flat, precisely horizontal circular plate
of glass, which
is oscillated by a vibration coil at frequencies
from 10 Hz to 20 000 Hz.
In the absence of any external dis-
turbance, a sphere started at the center of the plate executes a
random walk toward the outside edge, arriving with equal prob-
ability at any azimuth.
Since the sphere may make as many as
collisions in the process, it is vulnerable to statistical distor-
tion of its trajectory and consequent terminus. The task of the
operator
is preferentially to direct the sphere to a prescribed
terminal quadrant.
In an attempt to intervene with a random physical process at
the atomic level, we have constructed a large glow-discharge
device whose luminous patterns are indicative of the mean free
path of the current-carrying electrons against inelastic excita-
tion collisions with the background gas.
This device, shown in
Fig. 6, presents a 36-in X 2-in diam cylindrical glow marked by
a sequence of bright and dark zones along its positive column
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PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEEE, VOL. 70, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 1982
Fig. 4.
Photoelastic stress pattern.
Fig. 5.
Gaussian analog device and distributions.
typical of dc discharges in a given range of gas pressure and
terminal voltage. The number and locations of these striations
are sensitive to the electron inelastic mean free path, which in
Fig. 6. Glow discharge experiment.
turn depends on the gas type and density, the electron tempera
ture, and the local electric field.
Striation position is monitorei
by photoelectric detectors, and the goal of the operator is
t<
expand
or
contract the pattern on demand, to a significan
extent compared to the normal background jitter and
drifi
Protocols are much the same, output data take the same ger
eral form, and are analyzed by the same algorithms as in th
interferometer and photoelastic experiments.
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jahn:
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145
impera-
nitored
or is to
nificant
d
drift,
me gen-
s in the
Ttk-
n
nn
¥
IT
Fig. 7.
Functional diagram of REG.
Fig. 8. REG waveforms: (a) Filtered noise,
(b) Clipped noise,
(c) Sampling pulses.
A number of other atomic-scale random system PK experi-
ments are under consideration, design, or construction, involv-
ing such processes as information storage on a microelectronic
chip, the spontaneous decay of phosphorescent surfaces, lam-
inar to turbulent transition in a fluid stream, atomic and molec-
ular resonators, and resonant acoustical or electrical cavities,
but none of these is far enough advanced to merit description
here.
Rather, we shall concentrate for the remainder of this
section on a more detailed presentation of our most serviceable
experiment, and the one on which we have the largest data
base, the electronic REG.
Random Event Generator Experiments
REG’s have been the most widely used and most productive
facilities for experimentation with low-level PK.
Although a
broad variety of such devices exist, most involve four conceptu-
ally and functionally separable components: an electronic noise
source;
a sampling system which examines the noise at pre-
scribed intervals and prepares an output pulse train correspond-
ing to the samples thus obtained; a system which analyzes the
pulse train in accordance with preset instructions and prepares
suitable output for a feedback system; and the feedback dis-
play
itself, which informs the operator of the results of the
sampling process.
The particular version we have employed utilizes a packaged
commercial noise source module based on a solid-state junction
and precision preamplifier (Elgenco Model 3602A15124), but
modules employing radioactive decay units or glow discharges
can be readily substituted. This source produces a random noise
spectrum up to several megahertz, which our logic circuit first
filters to a
flat spectrum from 50 to 20 000 Hz, then amplifies
and clips to the flat-topped profile shown in Figs. 7 and 8.
This
is then sampled by a regular train of gate pulses, yielding a cor-
responding random succession of positive and negative output
pulses indicative of the sign of the noise at the time of sampling,
and these are then counted.
Since the average time between
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J
l:
l
j
zero
nt
dinned noise waveform is about 30 /is,
counting system may be set to count only positive pulses, only
—
to iLffs OOoTcanTe Sated with staffs-
negative pulses, or to alternate positive and negative counting
sampling rates to about 15 000/s
a
on successive samples.
The alternating positive/negative mode
tical independence.
_
.
nhotn-
effectively factors out any systematic bias in the noise source.
The full functional array ^ sketched m ^
d
Ph
the mode employed in all the experiments reported here,
graph of the boxed
units
in Fig
By panel setting me
m
* m displayed by LED arrays tracking both
““El"“?lt"
e
o
d
f7 TlOOlOOO oflO So^Te
the runningcount of each trial and the concurrent mean rela-
samples, at a frequency of 1,10, 100, 1000, or
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JAHN: PSYCHIC PHENOMENA: ENGINEERING PERSPECTIVE
147
TABLE
I
REG 200-Sample Data Summary
Series
Instr.
No.
Trials
Mean
Std.
Dev.
f-score
Pt
n+/n_
REG I
B.L.
12 000
100.009
6.994
0.144
0.443
5678/5611
PK +
4 550
100.264
7.037
2.528
0.006
2230/2056
PK"
A PK
3 850
8 400
99.509
7.063
-4.313
4.890
10"s
5 X 10"7
1716/1926
REG II
B.L.
2 500
100.033
6.875
0.239
0.406
1188/1179
PK +
1 950
100.247
6.849
1.590
0.056
916/919
PK"
A PK
1 800
3 750
99.597
6.775
-2.526
2.920
0.006
0.002
797/902
REG III
B.L.
3 500
99.977
7.013
-0.193
0.424
1658/1655
PK +
2 400
100.227
6.821
1.634
0.051
1150/1086
PK"
A PK
2 600
5 000
99.736
7.026
-1.918
2.507
0.028
0.006
1192/1270
2 REG I
B.L.
18 000
100.006
6.981
0.115
0.454
8524/8445
II
PK +
8 900
100.250
6.938
3.403
3 X 10"4
4296/4061
III
PK"
A PK
8 250
17 150
99.600
6.989
-5.203
6.107
10"7
5 X 10" 10
3705/4098
REG la
no B.L.
PK +
PK"
A PK
2 150
2 100
4 250
100.206
99.945
7.091
6.937
1.340
-0.365
1.213
0.088
0.358
0.113
1059/993
954/1019
REG Ha
B.L.
PK +
PK"
A PK
5 000
2 000
1 750
3 750
100.186
100.117
99.941
6.974
7.041
6.898
1.882
0.746
-0.360
0.772
0.030
0.228
0.359
0.220
2367/2337
955/950
803/839
ZREGI
la
B.L.
23 000
100.045
6.980
0.978
0.164
10891/10782
II
Ila
PK +
13 050
100.223
6.979
3.644
10" 4
6310/6004
III
PK"
A PK
12 100
25 150
99.709
6.968
-4.596
5.828
2 X 10" 6
3 X 10"9
5462/5956
only
'ting
'ode
iree,
lere.
both
rela-
tive to a preset origin and are permanently recorded on a strip
printer.
For most of the experiments described below, an AIM-
65 microprocessor interface is also utilized to insert the trial-
count
data
on-line into processing
routines supported by a
TERAK Model 8510 used
as a terminal and PDP 11/45 and
VAX 750 employing a UNIX operating system programmed in
C language.
All of the sampling, counting, and display functions
can be simply checked by referring them to an internal or ex-
ternal calibrated pulse train generator.
The device also has a manual/automatic option, whereby it
will either collect
its
trial samples only when a panel switch
or parallel remote switch is pushed, or it will repeat that process
for 50
trials automatically once activated by the switch.
The
operator thus has
the option
of
triggering each
trial
or of
initiating a repetitive flow of 50 such
trials with no further
intervention.
The experiments reported here were performed by a single
operator, seated in front of the device with the remote initia-
tion switch in hand and the LED count indicators and TERAK
terminal display visible.
This operator attempted, on instruc-
tion or volition, to distort the trial counts either toward higher
or lower values. The several options of sampling number, sam-
pling frequency, +/- polarity, and manual/automatic sequenc-
ing were variously determined by random instruction, operator
preference, or experimental practicality, and recorded before
the beginning of each trial.
Clearly, the full matrix of such pos-
sibilities could not be explored, and for our first sequence of
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:
experiments only 200-sample trials were used, at 100 or 1000
counts/s,
all counted in the +/- alternating mode.
The auto-
matic/manual
and
high/low
options were more thoroughly
tested, in both the volitional and instructed choice modes.
Fifty trials of the 200-sample units comprised a test run, and
data from these were processed individually and in many concat-
enations via a statistics package in the UNIX system developed
specifically for this task.
Calculated were the mean, standard
deviation,
range,
kurtosis, skew
coefficient,
z-score,
f-score,
X
goodness-of-fit with both 8 and 16 degrees of freedom, and
the corresponding one-tailed probabilities against chance of the
last four measures.
Applied to earlier and ongoing baseline
data, this analysis confirmed that in undisturbed operation this
REG conforms very well to a Gaussian approximation to the
appropriate full binary statistics.
The major portion of the results listed below comprised three
separate
experimental
series, extending over fifteen months,
labeled REG
I, REG
II, and REG
III, respectively.
All other
data acquired under slightly less formal conditions of protocol
during
this period,
included
for completeness,
are grouped
under two other series, labeled REG la and
Ila, respectively.
Details of these series protocols, calibration tests, and their in-
dividual results are
available in the reference [93],
All told,
over 25 000 active PK
trials were obtained, corresponding to
more than 5 000 000 binary events.
Table
I summarizes
all of the baseline and PK data acquired
during these five experimental series. A total of 23 000 base-
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Fig. 11. REG 200-sample baseline data on theory.
!*
,-ioook
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
NUMBER OF TRIALS
Fig. 14. REG cumulative deviations of PK + and PK" 200-sample data.
Fig. 12. REG PK + and PK" 200-sample data on theory.
5000
-
o
g
4000-
jjj
3000
-
UJ>
2000
-
1000
-
a
}
o i
jOASfcLINfc
2000
4000
6000
9000
NUMBER OF PAIRS OF TRIALS
12000
14000
Fig. IS. REG cumulative
deviations
in
direction of effort of all 200-
sample data.
i °4
Fig. 13. REG PK + and PK" 200-sample data fitted curves.
O
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
NUMBER OF TRIALS
Fig. 16. REG cumulative average deviations of PK + and PK' 200-sample
data.
line
trials were
taken under
a variety of conditions before,
during, and after the active PK
trials.
Their overall mean was
100.045, and their standard deviation 6.980, compared with
the values of 100.000 and 7.071 predicted by the theoretical
Gaussian approximation to the appropriate binary
statistical
distribution.
As shown in Fig.
1 1 , the frequency of count dis:
tribution conformed very well with the theoretical curve.
The results of the PK trials are also presented in Table I and
in Figs. 12 and
13.
Briefly, the 13 050 high-instruction trials,
denoted PK +
, yielded a mean of 100.23 and a standard devia-
•
tion of 6.979; the 12 100 low-instruction trials, denoted PK
-
,
yielded a mean of 99.704 and a standard deviation of 6.968.
The one-tailed probability of chance occurrence of the former,
computed from
/-score,
is about 10-4
; of the
latter, about
2 X 10-6
.
The combined probability of the split, i.e., of this
total “direction-of-effort” success, denoted APK, is about 3 X
1 0
. (A number of more elaborate statistical measures have
been
applied
to
these data; the results are not qualitatively
changed thereby.)
As is evident from Figs. 12 and 13, and as is verified by the
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more detailed statistical tests performed, no significant distor-
tion of the
frequency-of-count
distributions
other than the
shifting of the means has occurred.
In other words, the ob-
served
effect
is to shift the total distributions intact, rather
than to distort any of their higher moments significantly.
This
result clearly has felicitous implications for this class of experi-
mentation, since it allows much simpler and faster data collec-
tion and analysis than might otherwise have been anticipated.
It is illustrative to exhibit the overall data behavior via graphs
of the cumulative deviation of the trial score means versus the
accumulated data base.
Fig.
14 shows such a representation
for the total data pool plotting PK+
, PK", and baseline data
with reference to cumulative 0.05 confidence levels.
Fig. 15
uses a similar representation for compounding the PK + and PK
-
data in a “direction of effort” cumulative deviation. (Had REG
la and
Ila been excluded from these
data, the overall slopes
would have been slightly more severe and uniform.)
Alternatively, the cumulative data may be presented in terms
of the progressions of the average deviations from the theoreti-
cal mean, as shown in Fig.
16, where the stochastic variations
RDP96-00788R001 1 0001 0004-6
I
xpen-
:ollec-
ited.
graphs
us the
tation
e data
;ig. 15
id PK“
dREG
slopes
i terms
leoreti-
iations
!fAHN
: PSYCHIC'PHENOMENA: ENG
CIA-RDP96-00788R001 1 0001 0004-6
149
of the small data bases are seen to damp out to well-defined
terminal values after several thousand trials.
The PK
+ and PK' effects also manifest themselves in terms
of the number of
trial means recorded above and below the
theoretical value.
As displayed in Table
I, PK+ efforts were
generally
characterized
by
an
excess
of
trial means above
100.00 and PK
-
efforts by an excess below.
The total con-
catenations in these terms are significant
at a level of 0.003
for PK + and 3 X 10"5 for PK*.
The ensemble of results acquired in these experiments dis-
play certain instructive general features:
1) The importance of accumulating very
large data bases
when dealing with such marginal phenoma
is emphasized by
the
relative scales of the
statistical vagaries and the broader
systematic
trends
in
Figs.
14-16.
Although the trends are
established
early
in the data collection sequence, unambigu-
ous departures from
the accumulated vagaries of chance be-
havior occur only well into the total 25 000
trial,
5 000 000
bit, sequence.
2) Over this large a data base, there arises some quantitative
statistical regularity in the PK process, epitomized by the mean
slopes of the cumulative deviations in Figs. 14 and 15 and by
the terminal values of the average deviations in Fig. 16. Traced
back to the elemental binary samples, these values imply direc-
ted inversions from chance behavior of about one or one and a
half bits in every one thousand or, alternatively, of 0.2 or 0.3
bits per trial.
3) The differences between the somewhat larger values tor
the PK
- deviation and the lesser values for PK
+ are only mar-
ginally significant on this data base, but prevail rather uniformly
throughout
all the test series.
The suspicion that these reflect
some subtle bias in the REG itself is not supported by the base-
line
data, which
concatenate
to
a grand mean very slightly
above the theoretical value.
One of the primary goals of such controlled PK studies at
this early phase in the understanding of the phenomena is to
develop experiments of sufficient yield and replicability that
various parametric correlations may be systematically explored,
thereby hopefully separating the consequential from the incon-
sequential factors.
The experiments outlined above hold some
promise of serviceability for this purpose, but a great deal of
data
will need be accumulated to establish any such correla-
tions.
Four classes of parameters could be considered: those
associated with the experimental equipment; those associated
with the operator’s physiological and emotional characteristics;
those associated with the operator’s technique; and various en-
vironmental factors not directly associated with either. So far
we have accumulated only small amounts of data from other
operators, and given the general indication $ 1 above regarding
the importance of large data bases, we can make no statement
about the generality or peculiarity of our principal operator’s
performance.
Similarly, we have attempted no systematic vari-
ation of external environmental factors, and although test times,
dates,
durations, and laboratory
temperature,
pressure, and
humidity have been routinely recorded, we cannot comment
on the importance of this category of parameter.
On the matter of operator technique,
it should first be re-
emphasized that the sole formal difference between the PK+
and PK" ‘trials is the specified intention of the operator to in-
fluence the device to generate numbers in the assigned direction.
No other variation in protocol is permitted, save those subjec-
tive differences in psychological attitude the operator chooses
to invoke.
Although no records of such aspects were kept.
this operator, who claimed no special talent for this or any
other psychic task, reported that any conscious variations in
psychological
strategy, such
as
focus of visual attention, or
intensity of concentration or
desire, did not appear to have
any evident effect on the yield.
Similarly, differences in the
laboratory ambience, such
as
the lighting level, background
noise, or peripheral presence of other persons, did not seem
to influence this operator’s performance. When queried about
any impressionistic sense of the interaction process, the opera-
tor alluded to a “resonance or identification with the system,
leading to a loss of self-awareness similar to that experienced
in a game, a movie, or some creative occupation.”
Clearly this
class of parameter will be the most difficult to specify and cor-
relate, and we are far from any definition of its mechanisms.
With respect to experimental options on the equipment pa-
rameters,
we
can make very
limited
explorations with
the
acquired data base.
Briefly, binary correlations of the data for
the 100/1000 countingrate option, for the volitional/instructed
direction
of
effort, and
for automatic/manual sampling give
little indication of importance of such factors in the overall
performance.
Each category shows clear and significant separa-
tion of the means for the PK
+ and PK” efforts, with little to
choose between the f-scores for the various categories.
Thus,
at least for the data base at hand, the process seems insensitive
to these particular experimental parameters.
We have
also attempted
correlation
in terms of the
trial-
number sequence.
With cognizance
of the ubiquitous “de-
cline effect” which is reported over a broad range of psychic
experimentation, we have prepared an algorithm which cross-
concatenates from
the
data base
all scores achieved on the
first
trials of the experimental run,
all achieved on the second
trials, etc., up to the fiftieth, and arrays those fifty means in a
graphical form.
The
results show
little systematic profile of
yield versus
trial number.
A similar exercise has been
per-
formed to cross-concatenate the data by run-number over the
various series to search for a decline effect on that larger scale,
but again no significant correlation
is found within this data
base.
The most extensive parametric exploration attempted to date
was motivated by the apparently fundamental question implicit
in general conclusion 2) above,
i.e., whether the magnitude of
the observed
effect correlates with the
total number of bits
processed, or with the number of trials. To explore this aspect,
the same operator has performed a second ensemble of experi-
mental series totaling 25 000 trials, all consisting of 2000-sam-
ple
bits rather than 200.
As before, various combinations of
the automatic/manual and
volitional/instructed modes were
employed, but to speed data acquisition and reduce the opera-
tor’s tedium, only the
1000/s counting rate was used.
This,
coupled with the more elegant data processing capabilities that
had
evolved
over
the
preceding
experiments,
allowed
this
sequence to be completed in less than six months.
The results of this effort,
as presented in Table
II and Figs.
1 7 and
1 8, are curiously ambivalent.
As before, there is clear
and significant separation of the means of the PK
+ and PK
efforts, and the baseline is well behaved.
As could be antici-
pated from the larger standard deviation of the 2000-bit data,
the cumulative traces display larger statistical fluctuations and
require a larger number of trials to settle toward well-defined
terminal values.
To the quantitative precision allowed by this
data
base,
these
terminal values appear not to endorse any
simple bit-level hypothesis in that they fail by a factor of 6 or
7 to achieve the one or one and one-half bits per thousand
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ISOApproved For Release 2000/08/07
: ClA-RDgj
!<j?2, FEBRUARY 1982
TABLE
Summary of REG 2000-Sample Data
Insti.
No.
Trials
Mean
Std.
Dev,
f-score
Ft
n+/n_
B.L.
12 500
1000.016
21.879
0.079
0.468
6157/6088
PK +
12 200
1000.380
21.906
1.914
0.028
.
6092/5897
PK-
12 800
999.569
22.005
-2.216
0.013
6218/6351
A PK
25 000
“
2.920
0.002
Fig. 17. REG cumulative deviations of PK + and PK' 2000-sample data.
Fig. 18. REG cumulative
average
deviations
of PK + and PK' 2000-
sample data compared to 200-sample data.
i
t
j
i
i
i
j
inversion accomplished
in
the
200-bit
trials.
However, the
new values are larger on a per-trial basis by a factor of about
1.7, which is not negligible in this context.
Again, much more
data of this sort will be required to come to grips with this class
of correlation.
In addition to continuing study of this sample-size parameter,
our next generation of experiments employs a number of other
operators to explore the variation of yield with operator type
and technique, and a number of alternate noise sources, includ-
ing pseudo-random sources, in an attempt to localize the effect
somewhat and thereby to narrow the range of future experi-
ments and models.
The results outlined above are by no means the only conse-
quential REG data available for contemplation.
Of particular
interest
are
a
variety
of experiments reported by Schmidt,
some employing pseudo-random as well as physically random
sources, and others using taped source outputs recorded well
in advance of their presentation to the operator [87] -[90].
In another approach, May has recently reported an REG study
using
electronic
gear
specifically
designed
to
preclude very
subtle
artifacts
that might confound the effects of interest,
and
includes
in
his paper a thorough search of the modern
REG literature [91 ]
.
In addition, considerable research in the parapsychological
community has been performed using REG devices as drivers
for various forced-choice video games employed in both the
PK and clairvoyance modes [151].
Many of these claim sig-
nificant yields, but rarely are the data-bases sufficiently large
to present quantitative trends, or to allow much parameteric
correlation.
Regardless of their particular implementation, any potential
vulnerability of random electronic noise sources to incidental
or intentional distortion by the means under study here would
seem to be of some interest to a number of engineering com-
munities, given the proliferate application of such devices in
various functional and computational capacities.
Remote Perception
As a second example of contemporary psychic research that
has displayed some substantial yield and interlaboratory repli-
cability, we select a topic which has come to be called “remote
perception” or “remote viewing.”
The basic concept of this
j
process
is far from new; in the early 16th century, Paracelsus
stated it unequivocally:
Man also possesses a power by which he may see his friends and
the circumstances by which they are surrounded, although such
persons may be a thousand miles away from him at that time
[ 8 ]
.
In
its modern
form,
the
experimental
protocol
requires
a
“percipient”
to
describe,
by
free-response
oral
or
written
narrative
or drawing,
a remote, unknown target location
at
which is stationed an “agent,” with whom there is no normal
sensory mode
of communication
during
the
course
of the
experiment. The targets are usually selected by some prescribed
random
process from a previously prepared pool of targets,
which
is unknown
to any
of the
active
participants.
The
quality of the perception
is assessed by various impressionistic
or analytical judging methods described below.
Historically, this experiment has evolved from several genera-
tions of free-response clairvoyance and telepathy experiments,
which were found to have certain advantages over the more
traditional “forced-choice” ESP tasks, such as the Xener card
identifications of the
early Rhine laboratory [34] -[37],
in
displaying less tendency for percipient stagnation and “decline-
effects” over extended testing, and in maintaining some of the
spontaneity
of anecdotal
clairvoyance
experiences.
One of
the earliest detailed reports of such free-response studies appears
as
a book by Upton
Sinclair
entitled Mental Radio, which
features
an
equivocal
foreword
by
Albert
Einstein
[152].
More modem work of this
class was performed
at the Mai-
monides Medical Center by Ullman and Krippner in the 1960’s,
and reported in their book Dream Telepathy [64]
. From this
work emerged the so-called “ganzfeld” or sensory inhibition
perception studies of Honorton and many others which pro-
pounded the
desirability of emotionally stimulating tasks to
which the subjects could relate in a personal and spontaneous
fashion [66]
, [67]
.
The contemporary version of the remote perception protocol
was introduced in a sequence of publications by Targ and Put-
hoff [94], [153]- [156], which prompted a substantial num-
ber of attempted replications [157] — [1 74 ]
, and considerable
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mhni psychic kmm$&$MEmfl9mrmM08l07
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Fit 19
Remote perception target: Picnic area, Feathered Pipe Ranch
near Helena, MT; 12:00 N MDT, Sept. 5, 1978.
Percipient
transcript:
Princeton,
NJ; 8:30 A EDT, Sept.
5, 1978:
“Outdoors.
. .open
landscape—large
areas
of
trees—pines?
inter-
spersed with open
fields.
Single road.
High overcast, cool, breezy.
(Agent) in dark jacket talking to someone near road-possibly turn-
out area or picnic area. Assembly of stones-possibly pylon or, marker
or wall.
Large sign somewhere.”
critical comment. The most extensive of the replications, con-
ducted by Dunne and Bisaha in the Chicago area over the period
1976 to 1979, comprised 40 formal trials to which were applied
157 independent transcript judgings, 84 of which assigned first-
place rank to the proper targets [161], [162].
The type of data which can be acquired in such studies
is
illustrated
in
the sequence
of
Figs.
19-22.
In each case
is
shown a photograph of a particular
target, selected by some
random
process, which was visited by an agent on the date
and time indicated.
Below each figure
is a portion of the cor-
responding percipient transcript, with the time and location of
the perception
effort
also
noted.
The examples shown are
drawn from a variety of experimental series conducted under
somewhat different protocols, but serve to display some of the
characteristics which commonly appear in the more successful
efforts:
1) The overall ambience of the scene is accurately perceived.
2) Certain
details are accurately identified; others are mis-
construed or totally ignored.
3) A feature which is impressive to the agent is not necessarily
so to the percipient, and vice versa.
4) The composition of the scene may be distorted by errors
in scale, relative positions of key objects, or total right-
left inversions.
5) The aesthetic aspects, such as colors, general shapes, degree
of activity, noise level, climate, and other ambient features
tend to be more accurately perceived than more analytical
details such as number, size, or relative positions.
6) The perception is not necessarily centered on the defined
target, and may even provide accurate information on ad-
jacent areas external to the target, unnoticed by the agent.
7) The fidelity of the perception seems to be independent of
the remoteness of the
target, up to distances of several
thousand miles.
8) The time of the perception effort need not coincide with
the time the agent is at the target.
Perceptions obtained
several hours, or even days, prior to the agent’s visit to the
target, or even prior to selection of the target, display at
least as high a yield as those performed in real time.
Fig. 20. Remote perception target: Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton,
NJ; 2:15 P EDT, Aug. 28, 1980.
Percipient transcript:
Princeton, NJ; 12:15 P EDT, Aug. 28, 1980.
“Some kind of courtyard, enclosed by buildings on two sides. Paths
or walks around periphery, a statue or monument of some kind in the
middle surrounded by grass.
Could be a fountain;
1 have the feeling
of water.
Trees or
tall hedges on one side.
Fairly quiet, but some
people walking around. Not sure of sound, the idea of a fountain sug-
gests sound of water but I’m not sure
I really hear it or not.”
The philosophical and practical implications of items 7 and 8
are clearly substantial.
If the data are valid, the most parsimo-
nious explications would require access of the percipient s con-
sciousness to other portions of the space-time grid than that in
which
it is currently immersed, or that it can reach by normal
processes
of communication or memory.
These same items
also
seriously
delimit the potential physical mechanisms
for
such access.
Rigorous evaluation of the data from experiments such
as
these
is confounded by the psychological components of the
process, by the impressionistic nature of the information in-
volved, and by the inevitable subjective biases of all those par-
ticipating in the experiment.
Doubtless the earliest and most
primitive assessments were informal a posteriori exchanges of
impressions
about
the
target between
agent and
percipient
which, although possibly informative and stimulating to them,
lacked any quantitative basis and held little scientific credibility
.
In a somewhat less vulnerable strategy invoked more recently,
the percipient,
after completing his
transcript, visited several
possible targets drawn from the pool and attempted to identify
the one he perceived, or to rank-order each of them in terms
of conformity to his earlier perception.
Statistical arguments
could then be applied to these ranks to estimate the likelihood
that information about the target had been acquired by means
other than chance
[ 1 7 5 ]-[ 1 77]
.
In an attempt to separate the possible ESP functioning of the
percipient during the visitation and ranking process from his
original perception effort, the protocol subsequently evolved to
invoke independent judges who were provided copies of the
various transcripts and taken to the target sites to perform their
preferential
rankings.
Even in this form, the technique has
been criticized for possible sensory cuing of the judges [178]
and has tended in turn to be replaced by a protocol wherein
the judges perform their ranking on the basis of photographs
of the targets, usually taken by the agent at the time of the
trial.
In one such version, the judges, who have not been in-
volved in any
earlier portion of the experiment, are asked to
compare
a
single
percipient
transcript with agent-generated
descriptions and photographs of a number of alternative targets.
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PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEEE, VOL. 70, NO. 2, FEBRUARY 1982
Fig. 21. Remote perception target: Rockefeller Chapel, Chicago IL 1 2 : 1 5 P CDT, lone 10, 1977.
Percipient transcript: Mundelein College, Chicago, IL; 1 :00 P CDT, June 10,
•
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Fig. 22. Remote perception
target: Danube River, Bratislava, Czecho-
slovakia; 3:00 P European Standard Time, Aug. 24, 1976.
Percipient transcript: Minoqua, WI; 8:30 A CDT, Aug. 23, 1976:
“I have the feeling that the agent is somewhere near water.
I seem to
have the sensation of a very large expanse of water.
There might be
boats.
Several vertical lines, sort of like poles.
They’re narrow, not
heavy.
Maybe lamp posts or flag poles. Some kind of circular shape.
It’s round on
its
side,
like a disc, it’s like a round thing flat on the
ground, but it seems to have height as well. Maybe with poles. Could
possibly come to a point on top.
Seeing vertical lines again.
Seems to
be a strong Impression, these vertical lines.
Predominant colors seem
to be blue and green.
Water again., Some very quick impression of a
fence, a low fence.
The steps seem to go up to some kind of fence.
It’s a dark fence and it’s along like a walk sort of at the top of the
steps.
The steps sort of lead up to like a path or walkway.
Like a
boardwalk.
And
there’s a fence along
it.
There’s people walking
along it, and there’s vertical lines along that walkway.”
including the proper target, and to rate or rank-order them by
some prescribed
criteria.
Again,
statistical assessment of the
significance of the rankings follows.
The bulk of the remote perception data reported in the litera-
ture has been evaluated by some form of these independent
judging processes, and displays sufficiently high yield to encour-
age further refinement
of the protocol and
analysis before
attempting categorical judgment on the validity and viability
of the phenomena.
' Beyond minor tightening of the target
selection, agent maneuver, and perception acquisition and re-
cording phases of the experiment, the major potential improve-
ments would still seem to pertain to the judging process, which
remains potentially vulnerable to subtle cues in the transcripts,
to vagaries in the judges’ capability, to their subjective biases
toward the individual experiments and to the topic as a whole,
and to possible psychic input of their own [1611, 162].
In an effort to improve the judging process further, our labora-
tory has explored the applications of various information theo-
retic methods to the quantification of the data, and an analytic
technique has been devised which is based on a limited binary
alphabet
of target/perception
descriptors [179].
While less
sensitive to the Gestalt impressionism and symbolic represen-
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153
tations which a human judge might capture, this method does
provide a rudimentary framework for evaluation of signal-to-
noise
ratio
in
the information
transfer, and an assessment
standardization
less dependent on
subjective
interpretation.
In essence, the strategy is to replace impressionistic assessment
of the quality of a perception by the identification of specified
elements
of
information
therein,
after which
a mechanical
scoring and ranking procedure takes over.
In the hope of con-
veying a bit more substantive flavor of the data acquired in
remote
perception experiments and
the
processing
thereof,
permit us to describe this analysis in a little detail.
•
The heart of the method
is the establishment of a code, or
alphabet, of simple descriptive queries which may be addressed
to
all targets and
all perceptions, responses to which serve to
distinguish them and to permit quantification of the informa-
tion acquired in the perception process.
In one version, these
“descriptors,” thirty in number, are posed in binary form and
range over a spectrum from quite factual discriminations, e.g.,
whether the scene
is indoors or outdoors, whether
trees are
present, or whether there are automobiles, to much more im-
pressionistic aspects, such as whether the ambience is noisy or
quiet, confined or expansive, hectic or tranquil. The particular
ensemble of descriptors has evolved in part through personal
experience and intuition, and in part through trial-and-error
application to various pilot data. The goal has been a balanced
alphabet whose elements are a) relatively unambiguous; b) com-
monly perceived by a broad selection of percipients; c) individu-
ally instructive in defining the scene; d) complementary to one
another; and e) sufficient in number to permit reasonable syn-
thesis of the scene, but not so numerous to burden the data
collection or computation excessively.
Given this descriptor alphabet, each target in the pool is then
represented in terms of 30 binary bits, corresponding to the ap-
propriate YES/NO responses to the
queries.
This encoding is
normally performed by the agent at the time of target visita-
tion, although reference may be made to the target selector’s
judgment
or
to photographs
of the
target
for
verification.
Each
perception
is
similarly rendered
into
a corresponding
sequence of binary digits, but only after the percipient has been
allowed to form a free-response impression of the target.
Vari-
ous scoring recipes are then invoked for quantitative comparison
of the perceptions with the targets, using for computation the
UNIX operating system of a PDP 11/45 or VAX 750.
The
simplest
recipe merely counts the number of correct
responses to the 30 descriptors, i.e., the positive correlations
between the target and descriptor matrices.
This does not nor-
mally provide a particularly accurate index of the quality of the
individual perceptions, since the a priori probabilities of the
various descriptors are widely different.
For example, a given
pool may have more outdoor than indoor targets, and hence
a correct identification of an indoor context should be given
higher credit than identification of an outdoor context.
To
facilitate such weighting, a step is included in the computational
program to provide the a priori probabilities of all descriptors
in the prevailing target pool, on tile basis of which more elabo-
rate scoring recipes may be invoked.
Since the various targets have substantially different charac-
teristics and hence
different capacities for achieved scores, a
variety of normalization procedures also have been developed,
using as denominators the total number of descriptors, the per-
fect score,
i.e., the score that would be achieved for a given
target if
all descriptors were identified correctly, and various
“chance”
scores
for the
target, defined by some random or
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