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,&H®f0l)02200470001 -6
(U)
-
(*+l)
‘
Jr
1 - 1
V
where 5
is the average rank and R
is the number of choices
for each rank.
2.
(U)
Comparisons Across Classes
(U)
Experiments
can
be
categorized
in
accordance
with
a number
of
specific
variables
(e.g., type of feedback, type of target,
distance between the viewer and the target).
Effect sizes can be examined within a given category and compared across categories.
For each
categorization, the following questions are of interest:
(1)
Question
:
Is there any evidence of psychoenergetic functioning within
each of the individual categories?
(2)
Question 2
:
Is the level of psychoenergetic functioning constant across
all experiments within a category?
(3)
Question
:
Is the level of psychoenergetic functioning constant across
categories?
(4)
Question
:
If
there
are
differences
across
categories,
what
is
the
relative size of the effect in each category?
(U)
Table
shows the
notation
that
is used
in the
formalism that answers these
questions.
(U) To answer question
1, compare the average
z score
in each category with the
standard normal tables.
(U) To answer question
2, compute
k
m
i
Qw = X X n‘j(d‘j - d i
)
-
<» U'-1
If effect sizes are homogeneous within categories, the distribution of Qw will be approximately X2
with v = (Xmi - k) degrees of freedom.
The hypothesis of homogeneity
is rejected
if Qw
is large
compared to the chi-square table entry with
v degrees of freedom.
To
test
for homogeneity
within a
single category,
/, compute
Qwi = ^ nij(dij -di .)
.
; =
i
UNCLASSIFIED
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Approved For Release 2000/(y^@LA&§IPtl®2200470001 '6
(U)
Similarly,
the
distribution
of Qm
will be approximately X2 with v =
(mi - k)
degrees of freedom, and can be examined as above.
Table
(U) DEFINITIONS AND META-ANALYSIS FORMALISM
sic Definitions
k = number of categories
mi = number of experiments in category
/;
/ =
j,
...
,
k
dij =
effect size
for experiment; in category
/;
i =
i,
...
,
k; j =
1,
.
riij = number of trials in experiment j in category
/
Zij -
z score for experiment j in category
/
..
,
nti
«/. = ^
riij = number of trials
Within Category
i
X n
‘Jdh
di. =-
= average effect size
zi. =
- y—— = di. yfrti. = average z score
Across Categories
n.. =
rij. = total number of trials
i
X X niJdiJ
d
- ——i
= overall average effect
size
UNCLASSIFIED
z.. =Jn~.d,,
= overall average
z score
(U) To answer question
3, compute
QB='Z nUdi.-d..) 2
.
i =
If effect sizes are homogeneous across categories, the distribution of Qb will be approximately X2
with
v = k-1 degrees of freedom.
Therefore, the hypothesis of homogeneity across categories
is
rejected
if Qb
is large compared to the appropriate entry in the chi-square table with v degrees of
freedom.
UNCLASSIFIED
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: CIA-RDP96-00789R002200470001-6
Approved For Release 2000/<yNGLA£S-HH£lB)2200470001-6
(U)
Finally,
to answer question
4, approximate 95% confidence
intervals may be
computed for the average effect size within a category using
di. ±
1.96
UNCLASSIFIED
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V RESULTS AND DISCUSSION (U)
(U) The results of the meta-analysis are presented here, where possible,
in quantitative
analytic terms, and various interpretations are discussed in detail.
In addition, items that cannot
be analyzed are discussed from a qualitative perspective.
(U) The analysis proceeds in a top-down fashion in accordance with the hierarchy shown
in Figure
1.
A.
(U)
Overall Results
(U) The overall analysis was conducted from three different perspectives:
(1)
All of the data, regardless of the purported
skill of the subjects,
(2) A subset of the data contributed by an experienced group of viewers, GJ
(i.e., long-term, generally accepted expert viewers— 002, 009,
131, 372,
414, and 504)
(3)
All of the data except for the group G1
(i.e., All-Gl).
Table
2 shows the number of trials n,
total
z score, p value, and effect size d for informational
and putative causal processes and
for the combination of the two.
Table 2
(U) STATISTICAL RESULTS FOR MAJOR CLASSES
Class
Perspective
n
z
P*
d
Psychoenergetics
All
25,449
9.37
3.69
(-21)
0.059
G1
9,825
6.86
3.46 (-12)
0.069
All-Gl
15,624
6.53
3.46 (-11)
0.052
Informational
All
24,450
9.07
5.83
(-20)
0.058
G1
9,702
6.69
1.14
(-11)
0.068
All-Gl
14,748
6.25
1.96
(-10)
0.052
Causal
All
999
2.42
6.39
(-03)
0.077
G1
123
2.06
1.99
(-02)
0.171
All-Gl
876
1.89
2.95
(-02)
0.064
SECRET
*
(U) Powers-of-ten are shown
in parentheses.
SECRET
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