L Approved For Release 2000/0 OgmmmmEET = p0729R005200200001-4 (U) The number of trials shown in Table 2 differs slightly from those shown in Figure 1. A few trials in each category were analyzed from a post-hoc point of view and therefore have not been included in the formal analysis. WH 1- heterogeneity of effect size within each group for all classes is very large (i.e., the chi-squares for within-groups were large). This is to be expected for such a global analysis and is frequently seen in meta-analyses of psychological data.’ The sources of the within-group variation include the psychoenergetic skill level of the subjects and fundamental differences between psychoenergetic tasks. |S The data, regardless of subjects or process, show strongly significant evidence for psychoenergetic functioning (p < 3.69 x 10-'), Both the informational and putative causal processes show significant evidence of psychoenergetic functioning, as well. TH Since p values are strongly dependent upon the number of trials, the modern trend in meta-analysis is to consider the trial-independent measure of effect size. From this point of view, the magnitude of the psychoenergetic functioning appears roughly constant for all the data shown in Table 2, and, according to Cohen's criteria for the interpretation of effect size,* corresponds to small effects.6 The method of calculating overall effect size, however, involves a weighted average (see Table 1) and thus may not provide an accurate picture of the size of the psychoenergetic functioning within a given category. To obtain more insight into the nature of the functioning, we must examine the data within each category. B. (U) Results for Categories Within the Informational Process TE Table 3 shows the number of trials, total z score, p value, and effect size for categories within the informational process. The data show strongly significant evidence for psychoenergetic functioning for all categories regardless of subjects. The effect size, however, begins to demonstrate category differences. The forced-choice effect size (d = 0.052) is equivalent to the overall effect size shown in Table 2 (d = 0.059). Since the forced-choice category accounts for 77% of the total number of trials, the effect-size averaging technique biases the overall result. For example, the effect size (d = 0.209) for the RV-Lab category is significantly larger than for the Forced-Choice case (X? = 22.70, v= 1; p< 6.63 X 10-6). The RV-Lab effect sizes meet Cohen's criterion for a medium-sized behavioral effect. (U) Values of 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 correspond to small, medium. and large effects. respectively. Approved For Release 2000/ -CIA-R 6-00789R003200200001-4
Approved For Release 2000/08/0 6-00789R003200200001-4 Table 3 (U) STATISTICAL RESULTS FOR INFORMATIONAL CATEGORIES Forced~Choice All 19,675 7.42 6.12 (-14) Gl 9,487 5.82 2.92 (-09) All-G1 10,188 4.69 1.39 (-06) 4.33 (-11) 3.49 (-08) 2.71 (-06) 3.45 (-05) 3.45 (-05) RV-Search All 3,790 - Gl —_ ~ All-G1 3,790 4.53 (-03) 4.53 (-03) . * (U) Powers-of-ten are shown in parentheses. ‘ Fo: the RV-Lab category, the experienced group, G/, performs significanuy better than the novice, larger group (X2 = 7.63, v = 1; p < 0.0057). a -: in the overall analysis, the data analyzed in Table 3 show a large heterogeneity of effect size within each category. The heterogeneity of effect size, however, is significanuy reduced for the experienced subjects in the RV-Lab category. This reduction may result {rom a more uniform skill level of the subjects in group G/; this is in general agreement with our qualitative assessment of their abilities. ; SO 8.5% of the remote viewing operational trials were analyzed as a formal experiment. The effect size for these exceeds Cohen's definition of a large effect. The equirements of EB emote viewing, however, are less dependent upon the quality of the viewing than they may be on other factors. Excellent remote viewing does not necessarily imply coo EE, information. 13 Approved For Release 200050 © 789R003200200001-4 | =
l [] Approved For Release 2000/08/( mamma 00789R002200200001-4 | r [] a. the RV-Search category, 91.3% of the data were collected under laboratory conditions by novice subjects. The small effect size (d = 0.042) is commensurate with that found in other laboratories, and may reflect our lack of understanding - about how to elicit this form of psychoenergetic functioning. Cc. (U) Specific Results for Remote Viewing r | (U) In this section we address the specific questions posed in the SOW. In any kind of an investigation where the general results fall under a statistical regime (i.e., z scores less than about r | 5), no hard definitions exist for definitive conclusions. The problem is confounded in behavioral 7 science because many factors, beyond the particular independent variable in question, may rL significantly alter the outcome of an experiment. In trying to assess a large body of literature, as more constraints are placed on the outcomes, fewer within-group trials are available for analysis; thus, statistical conclusions become more difficult. This is also true for psychoenergetic research. FL Yet, it is possible to describe trends, to Suggest ways of improving experiments based upon earlier results, and to obtain clear insights into factors that may affect psychoenergetic functioning. To ensure the most reliable interpretations of results in what follows below, group , Gl has. been used for the quantitative discussion. As was shown in Section V.-B, this group rl possessed the most homogeneous set of data for the RV—-Lab category and demonstrated a significant amount of remote viewing ability. 1. (U) Selection/Screening rl mz. The selection of individuals who are able to accomplish remote viewing both in an operational setting and in the laboratory is of Paramount importance. As is shown in ry Section V.-B., above, group G/ provides the best results for both types of remote viewing. Throughout the history of the program at SRI, 6 individuals have been able to demonstrate r consistent functioning over a long period of time. This does not mean that, after vigorous | searching, only 6 have been found. Rather, given our ES «::-: for most of - the time period in question, we had little impetus to find other viewers. During fiscal years | 1986-1988, it became clear that a greater number of talented viewers was needed for both - applications and research. | aa —_ 14 Approved For Release 70001 lanes 57075 9R00220020000%-
Approved For Release 200010 Bie " — °° |g Prior to FY 1986, little was known about how to select good viewers. There was little systematic research either at SRI or within the field in general, and what was available was inconclusive or contradictory. The effort that began in FY 1986 encompassed a broad approach to the problem. We initiated three different types of quantitative approaches: self-report personality tests, neuropsychological testing, and behavioral testing (i.e., the Personality Assessment System—PAS). In addition, we used one heuristic approach, which simply asked individuals to try remote viewing. The heuristic approach has been quite successful. The efficiency (i.e., the number of talented viewers found divided by the total number screened) is approximately 1% in the general population (i.e., groups of self-selected volunteers). Based upon the results of a mass screening effort, two individuals have been asked to be regular contributors to the project. One other heuristic source of good viewers is individuals who have noticed a psychoenergetic ability in their lives. Many viewers in group G/ came to the project in this manner, and a new viewer, claiming similar experiences, was identified in a recent screening effort. This viewer produced an effect size of 0.440 in 6 remote viewing trials, which contained many striking qualitative correspondences between targets and responses. Of the quantitative techniques, the neuropsychological approach was not successful at predicting performance. The PAS, however, predicted performance of 9 viewers to a significant degree. _ By far, the best way to select viewers as of this writing is to use individuals who either have abilities measured in other laboratories, or who have had strong personal experiences. , | One technique not mentioned above holds great promise for the future. Three individuals from group G/ who participated in a neurophysiological study of correlates with remote viewing produced unusually large central nervous system responses to light stimuli directed at the eyes. More work is needed to determine if this simple test might be the most effective way to screen for individuals with excellent remote viewing ability. 15 Approved For Release 2000/0 cMIMMRERIs-2h29R003200200001-4 a | i
Annee ertemnnenenn a enmnenenneairr i a ——_———approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001-4 2. (U) Targeting wag Targeting is a general term to describe the method by which a viewer is _ directed to the intended target. Common techniques that have been employed include the ™ ' following: | . | (1) Beacon—an individual at the site of the intended target. (2) Coordinates—the geographical o il coordinates of the intended target. ~ (3) Abstract—a word or phrase (e.g.,“target”) or other abstract representation of the intended target. -~ (4) Self—none of the above, the viewer initiates the collection of data. We examined these techniques in order to determine which provides the best access to a remote Saad target. me these four targeting techniques, 183 trials were identified—the a remainder, 13 trials, were listed as “unknown” targeting. The effect size for viewings initiated by these targeting techniques was 0.401, leading to a p value of 2.92 x 10-8. Thus, there is _ significant evidence for remote viewing functioning. The between-groups chi-square is Significant (X? = 12.58, v=3;p< 0.0058), indicating that the effect sizes resulting from these _ targeting techniques are not drawn from the same population. ™ _ It is difficult, however, to attribute the significant differences to targeting techniques alone. In none of the experiments could the targeting technique be used as a valid “ independent variable, because, in all cases, the viewers and experimenters were not blind to the targeting condition. Thus, it is possible, even likely, that the viewers’ scientific or emotional bias o_ toward one technique or another confounds the interpretation. Other factors, such as feedback time and type, or potential physics models of information transfer, also confound the = interpretation. | Given these caveats, beacon targeting appears to provide the best and most ai stable results (7 = 66, z = 5.305, p < 5.65 x 10-8, d= 0.653). 3.  (U) Evaluation and Analysis — (U) The evaluation and analysis of remote viewing data has undergone significant improvement during our 16 years of investigation. Beginning as a simple blind matching by i judges, the techniques have been improved by the addition of concept analysis (the paraphrasing of a complex response), discrete descriptor analysis (defining targets and response as the yes/no - answers to a predetermined set of descriptors), and fuzzy set descriptors (defining targets and responses as fuzzy sets). ~ - Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001-4
Approved For Release 2000/ 6-00789R003200200001 -4 F The fuzzy set technique has also been applied to ’ experiments and found to provide a useful estimate of remote viewing accuracy (the percent of the intended target that was described correctly) and viewer reliability (the percent of the viewer's response that was correct). FO For rapid evaluation of laboratory experiments, rank-order judging of targets within preselected (i.e., by fuzzy set techniques) target packets is recommended. For more accurate measures of remote viewing ability, however, the full fuzzy set analysis is suggested. Determining whether the fuzzy set technique can be applied fis ‘a topic for further investigation. 4. (U) Training Isix training efforts were conducted during the time period under consideration; three were qualitative and three were quantitative. There is no overall quantitative evidence that remote viewing can be taught to novice viewers. Of the qualitative efforts, two were conducted with. : viewers, and one was conducted with SRI personnel. All three showed. some. qualitative evidence, however, that training improves remote viewing skill. Quantitative experiments were conducted with 18 novice viewers in three separate experiments comprising 481 trials. In the first group, the novices were self-selected on the basis of strong interest and previous personal experiences. None had participated in prior laboratory experiments. The six viewers in this group produced overall significant evidence for remote viewing (7 = 169, z = 1.719, p < 0.043, d = 0.132). None of the viewers, however, individually or collectively demonstrated significant evidence that training helps a viewer to improve. ay r- second group of 9 viewers was selected because the Personality Assessment System predicted that they would exhibit a wide range of remote viewing ability. Overall, their data did not reach statistical significance (m = 221, z = -0.971, p < 0.834, = -0.065). ‘While the best viewer produced an effect size of 0.170, none of the viewers’ data reached statistical significance. None of these viewers individually or collectively demonstrated Significant evidence that training helps a viewer to improve. me . the third group of 3 novice viewers, one demonstrated significant evidence for improvement (n = 26, z = 3.01, p < 0.0013, d = 0.590). nm While significant evidence for remote viewing has been observed, whether training can improve remote viewing skill has yet to be substantiated quantitatively. It is possible that knowledge has not yet advanced to the point where we know how to train. Since the data from viewers in group G/ have remained stable over time, we conclude that simple practice does not appear to improve performance. Approved For Release a : i F | a
+. sere - €xperiment. + CIA-RDP96-00789 R003200209001 SRI recommends that investigations into training be continued. In the g00d viewers are more easily found than trained. . meantime, 5. (U) Role of Feedback (uy Feedback is defined as Providing the viewer with information about the target after a remote viewing experimen intended t. Very few experiments were devised to test the role of feedback in determining remote viewing quality. In the early phases of the Project, the primary abjective was to Provide as good a result as possible, and since feedback appeared not to hinder : gg: : . . oo. Ps % remote viewing, most of the early sessions always included it in one form or ahother. ek ee ‘ . . . The strongest evidenc 1987 tachistoscope experiment. Provided to the viewers. € about the role of feedback i S provided by the FY In that study, subliminal or minimal visual feedback was viewing ability (2 = 40; 2 = 2.30, p< 0.012, d= d= 0.700, respectively). Nej The question of the role o time (i.e. and feedback type (e.p., site, examined feédback Significant differences among with regard to feedback is difficult. For example, hour delay compared to a 5-minute delay may the significant difference between al result from the fact that Most of the S-minute delay feedback intervals occurred in experiments in which photographs were used as targets. Since the longer delay occurred in experiments that one interpretation is that the observed dif. ferences are dback interval. used beacons and natural sites as largets, attributable to larget type rather than fee natural site (d = -~Q. 137. X2 24.55 ya 1; p <= 0.042), Giving false feedback appears to inhibit remote viewing. essential,” In forced-choice experiments, however, Hon in the Precognition experiments was Critical.&
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 7 (0789R003200200001-4 pe the quantitative results are mixed, viewers indicate that feedback is psychologically important. We conclude, therefore, that feedback should be provided whenever 5 4 : possible. 6. (U) Effect of Distance r ke examined the effect of distance on the quality of remote viewing. ™ Distances were divided into four ranges: < 1 km, < 50 km, < 5000 km, and > 5000 km. For the group GJ, there was no effect of distance on the quality of remote viewing (X2 = 3.56, v= 2; p < 0.167). It is possible to be definitive about this particular result since all confounding variables tend to increase the chi-square rather than decrease it. 7. (U) Effect of Size of Target “Only one experiment has been conducted that directly addresses this issue. Photographs were reduced to a spot size of approximately 1 mm in diameter. One viewer from group G/ produced significant results (n = 6, z= 2.10, p< 0.018, d= 0.857). We are able to conclude that targets 1 mm in diameter do not inhibit remote viewing quality. No data are available ‘on targets of varying sizes. = (U) In the field in general, the search for physiological correlates has not been successful. Early results indicated that an individual should be moderately relaxed and as free ™ from physiological stress as possible (e.g, headaches, bathroom demands). These results are not surprising in that it is likely that such a “physiological” state would be optimal for any human activity. Ee SRI has examined neurophysiological correlates to remote viewing In two separate experiments. Specifically, the central nervous system appears to respond to a remote light flash, and thus provides a correlate to remote viewing. For the two experiments, a total of = ™ four viewers (all from group G/) produced independent significant changes in a-production in correlation with remote light stimuli.?-'° mm SRI recommends that the effort to isolate particular parts of the central nervous system that respond to remote stimuli be continued. The potential for screening and = training are significant. I 8. (U) Physiological Correlates to Remote Viewing ~ Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : —_——~— a
| a | Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001 -4 9. (U) Psychological Correlates to Remote Viewing Psychological correlates to remote viewing have provided weak, but Significant, evidence for correlations with some forms of psychological variables. In the early work with the Personality Assessment System, SRI found that many of the group G/ viewers clustered near each other in PAS space. In later work, the PAS predicted viewer performance to a significant degree. SRI’s work with self-report personality tests has not been successful; Honorton reports small, but significant correlations with the thinking/feeling dimension in the Myers-Briggs Type Inventory.U and/or unreliable. however, In general, psychological correlates have been weak 10. (U) Shielding and ELF a7 The main purpose of Searching for shielding against psychoenergetic functioning is to provide for a secure environment. 1. M. Kogan proposed a model of psychoenergetic information transfer based on extremely low-frequency (ELF) electromagnetic in effect, a 10~Hz oscillator and the body is a crude antenna. Radiation at that frequency would exhibit many of the properties of psychoenergetic functioning known at that time. radiation.'2 In that model, Kogan proposed that the brain is, Too few data were collected under known shielding conditions to make definitive statements with regard to shielding. Two trials were collected in a 30-dB shielding at 10 Hz. These trials showed significant evidence of remote viewing (n = 2, z= 1.92, P S&S 0.027, d = 1.358). In another experiment, when the target material was contained in a SCIF, significant evidence for remote viewing was observed (n = 6, z = 1.91, p < 0.028, d = 0.780). The trend, however, is clear: electromagnetic shielding does not inhibit psychoenergetic acquisition of target material. 11. (U) Audio Analysis | In a single study involving 6 trials with a single viewer from group G/, a significant correlation of remote viewing quality with the audio/linguistic character of the response was found (n = 6, r = 0.995, P S 0.050, d = 0.800). within One purpose for determining ~session correlations with remote viewing quality is to provide for an independent and a priori measure of quality. (U) SRI recommends that this type of investigation be continued to determine the degree to which the result can be generalized across viewers, 20 Approved For Release 2007 (gummi 96-00789R003200200001-4
=a eae ae ae ae ol =e lemmas Approved For Release 2000/0 Approved For Release 2000/08/ | 0789R003200200001 -4 12. (U) Search and Tracking As was seen in Section V.-B., above, significant evidence for search was found overall (n = 3,790, z= 2.61, p < 0.0045, d= 0.042). Most of these trials were collected in experiments using computer techniques. In a few experiments, however, the target material was physical objects in a laboratory setting. The effect sizes from these experiments do not differ Significanuy from the overall result. am Search has always been a challenge. On a few occasions, operational use of search has proved extremely useful data, but on the average, both the laboratory experiments and operational use have been disappointing. SRI recommends continued effort in search to determine those factors that can enhance a potentially very useful phenomenon. 13. (U) Precognitive Remote Viewing The first SRI precognition experiment provided significant evidence of the \ phenomenon (n = 4, z = 1.73, p < 0.042, d = 0.864).13 From FY 1975 to FY 1987, Precognition was not studied in any systematic manner. During FY 1987, one experiment was. conducted using natural sites as targets and one of the group G/ viewers. The result was not significant (n = 10, z = -0.476, p < 0.683, d = -0.150). A second experiment using novice viewers was conducted in the same year. This also did not reach a significant level (n = 55, z = 0.070, p = 0.472, d = 0.064). Therefore, the results of SRI's investigations are mixed. However, in a recent meta-analysis of the precognition forced-choice literature conducted by one of SRI's subcontractors, 50 years of experimentation involving 50,000 subjects showed highly significant evidence for the phenomenon (n & 108, z = 24.23, p <4 x 10-52, d= 0.041). This result is consistent with the forced-choice real-time studies conducted at SRI (d = 0.052). Taken as a whole, there appears to be compelling evidence for precognition.: When precognition is used as the underlying assumption for a heuristic model of psychoenergetic functioning, 15 years of random number generator data fall on the predicted theoretical curve.'4 14. (U) Analytics (Forced-Choice) (U) Forced-choice remote viewing (defined in Section IV.-A.) has traditionally provided weak but consistent evidence for a psychoenergetic phenomenon. In the experiments conducted during the Rhine era, over one million trials were conducted with ESP cards (i.e., a one-in-five target system) .!5 Strong significances were observed, but effect sizes were of the order of 0.02. -00789R003200200001 -4 v
Approved For Release 2000/08 -00789R003200200001-4 fF Table 3 shows the results for 19,675 trials collected at SRI since 1v + "1 te effect size is consistent with the early results of Rhine (d = 0.052). In fiscal years 19x Ose one of the viewers from group G/ was able to increase the effect size by a factor of 10) Woe ay P S 0.00015, d = 0.51), meeting Cohen's definition of a strong effect. While th, wan as significant improvement with this viewer during the three years, the number of formal t:.,- wa as small, and thus interpretation is difficult. GB sx: recommends that a forced-choice investigation be contun., ! te . « determine if such strong effects can be observed in other viewers. 1S. (U) Conducting an RV Experiment x ‘formal experimentation has been conducted to examine Ssh parameters that enhance remote viewing. SRI does not use any formal induction techniu,. teat the sessidns are conducted in a businesslike atmosphere with the viewer and monituy White i upright and opposite each other across a table. Since the overall effect size (d = 0.385) aly, aoe oY wad for group G/ meets Cohen's definition of a medium-sized effect, these session condition, vee Via appear to hinder the phenomenon. 16. (U) Countermeasures Zz The first step in investigating countermeasures for remote viewiny , ~ tan examine whether it is possible to shield against psychoenergetic intrusion. As was disci, as i] Section V.-C.-10, E&M shielding does not appear to be effective. a: provide an effective shield or a useful physical counlermeasure Mg, be determined whether psychoenergetic phenomena interact with the physical world ety. remote action studies conducted at SRI, most of the studies have not demonstrated any eva Who, of psychoenergetic interaction with the physical world. | Two exceptions are worthy of discussion. In a study conducted in FY 1+, oy involving random number generators, the significant results were consistent with the hist., 4 database of such experiments. Later, it was shown that these results are not due to a pliy., eat interaction, but rather due to precognition.'* WE vurin, FY 1975, a striking anomaly was observed when one of the vu .,, from group G/ attempted to influence a shielded magnetometer. The device was perturbed ,,, significant manner, but no other experiments were conducted that showed similar non-stati-«,, a results. 22 Approved For Release 200008 -00789R003200200001-4 ~~ _——
W W Ll ld ls hs k k tb : ' j ! ! | -Approved For Release 2000/08/08— 6.00789R003200200001-4 | In an experiment designed to replicate claims made in the People’s Republic of China, SRI determined the degree to which pulses from a photomultiplier tube correlated with the quality of remote viewing. While strong evidence for remote viewing was seen, no Significant correlations with the tube output were observed. At this time, there is no evidence that psychoenergetic phenomena can be shielded against nor effectively countermeasured. Approved For Release : SIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001-4
Approved For Release 2000/0 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Approved For Release a : GAA-RDP96-00789R003200200001-4 6-00789R003200200001-4 REFERENCES (U) Zimbardo, P., Psychology and Life, 12th Ed., Scott, Foresman and Company, Boston, MA, p. $4 (1988) UNCLASSIFIED. Rosenthal, R., Meta-Analytic Procedures for Social Research, Applied Social Research Methods Series, Vol. 6, Sage Publications, Beverly Hills, CA (1982) UNCLASSIFIED. Light, R. J. and D. B. Pillemer, Summing Up, The Science of Reviewing Research, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA (1984) UNCLASSIFIED. Hedges, L. V. and I. Olkin, Statistical Methods for Meta-Analysis, Academic Press. Inc., New York, NY (1985) UNCLASSIFIED. Feingold, A., “Matching for Attractiveness in Romantic Partners and Same-Sex Friends: A Meta-Analysis and Theoretical Critique,” Psych. Bull., Vol. 104, No. 2, pp. 226-235 (1988) UNCLASSIFIED. Cohen, J., Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences, (rev. ed.) Academic Press, New York, NY (1977) UNCLASSIFIED. Targ, E., R. Targ, and O. Lichtarge, “Realtime Clairvoyance: A Study of Remote Viewing Without Feedback,” The Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association 28th Annual Convention, Tufts University, Medford, MA, pp. 335-342 (August 1985) UNCLASSIFIED. Honorton, C., D. B. Ferrari, and G. Hansen, “Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments,” Psychophysical Research Laboratories’ Technical Report (1989) UNCLASSIFIED. May, E. C., R. Targ, and H. E. Puthoff, “Possible EEG Correlates to Remote Stimuli Under Conditions of Sensory Shielding,” Proceedings of Electro77 Professional Program of the IEEE, Special Session on the State of the Art in Psychic Research, New York (April 1977) UNCLASSIFIED. May, E. C., W. W. Luke, and T. J. Frivold, “Neurophysiological Correlates to Remote Viewing (U),” SRI International, Menlo Park, CA, Final Report—Objective D, Task 1, Project 1291 (December 1988) : Private communication. Kogan, I. M., “Is Telepathy Possible?” Radio Eng., Vol. 21, P. 75 (January 1966) UNCLASSIFIED. Puthoff, H. E. and R. Targ, “A Perceptual Channel for Information Transfer Over Kilometer Distances: Historical Perspective and Recent Research,” Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 64, No. 3, pp. 329-354 (March 1976) UNCLASSIFIED. May, E. C., D. I. Radin, G. S. Hubbard, B. S. Humphrey, and J. M. Uus, “PSI Experiments with Random Number Generators: An Informational Model.” SRI International, Menlo Park, CA, Final Report Project 8067 (October 1985) UNCLASSIFIED. Honorton, C., “Error Some Place!,” Journal of Communication, pp. 103-116 (Winter 1975) UNCLASSIFIED.
—_ Approved For Release <n (U) Thus, the groups of interest were ranked as ERUa > ERA8 = ERU8 > IRAS when predicting overall performance and were ranked as the reverse of this when predicting the significance of the learning within the experiment. 3. (U) Results of Predictions: Correlations Between RV Performance and PAS Profiling (VU) Table 5 shows the PAS predictions for overall RV performance as measured against actual performance—i.e., each trainee’s performance as measured by an effect size estimate (Pearson's r)? derived from the figure of merit analysis* p-values. An effect size estimate is used to normalize for number of sessions. Table 5 AS PREDICTION VS. ACTUAL VIEWER PERFORMANCE Actual Viewer PAS Prediction Performance a Effect Number of Size (r) | Sessions (n) very close in ranking middle ight middle doe well in IDS, but not worst in RV clearly the bottom worst * PAS prediction coincides with the viewer's actual rank. . ‘Approved For Release a ; —=\ i
anteater enema 9§-00789R003200200001-4 Approved For Release 2000/ (U) While the rank order correlation contrasting the top five and bottom four performers does not achieve statistical Significance, it is encouraging that the PAS correctly identified two out of the three best performers. The failure to identify Viewer 137 is easily attributed to lack of prior experience with ERUS viewers. Thus, the results tend more to confirm than to disconfirm the FY 1984 PAS study, ° (U) Table 6 shows the PAS predictions for evidence of RV learning as measured against actual evidence for learning—i.e., each trainee’s learning-slope effect size as derived from the figure of merit slope p-values. Table 6 PAS PREDICTION VS. EVIDENCE FOR VIEWER LEARING PAS Prediction Actual Viewer Performance _ $$$ rrr Viewer . ss Viewer Effect Number of Prof; ID rofile Prediction ID Size (r) Sessions (n) _— Most improvement Least improvement _” PAS prediction coincides with the viewer's actual rank. = (U) The PAS predictions concerning viewer learning are largely unsuccessful. When the PAS predictions were forwarded to the SRI COTR, however, they were caveated -~ 18 - Approved For Release "a : i
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP -00789R003200200001 -4 IV CONCLUSIONS (U) (U) Several important factors must be noted when assessing the overall efficacy of the PAS in this study. It is important to observe, for example, that the novice RV training results are preliminary: final training results are not officially scheduled for delivery until the end of the first quarter of FY 1987. Although continuation of training with the original nine participants at this juncture would destroy the double-blind aspect of the PAS study, a workable solution to this problem has been identified--namely, to continue training with a new group comprised of the most promising few candidates out of the original group of nine, augmented with new candidates to whom the monitors and evaluators are blind with respect to PAS pattern. Wir explanation for the observed lack of significance in the preliminary novice RV training results is presently unknown. One hypothesis would suggest that the training procedures are simply not proving effective. This appears unlikely, however, given that significance was achieved with novice trainees using the same procedures in FY 1984. A second possibility is that training needs to be of a longer duration. * This hypothesis can be tested by observing whether significance is achieved with the selected viewers from this study who continue training. (U) The PAS results for this study are encouraging and provide a conceptual replication of the earlier FY 1984 PAS work. In the earlier study, the PAS was used successfully to predict the top performer out of each of three different training groups. In FY 1986, the PAS has been used effectively to predict two out of the top three performers in a single training group. As an empirically driven system, the PAS Reference Groups experience continual refinement as the PAS data base increases. It is anticipated, therefore, that the predictive power of the PAS will increase accordingly. * (U) This is more consistent with the apparent indication that aspects of the training results are correlated with something else, i.e., the PAS. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CPA-RDP96-00789R003200200001-4 H
_ eT proved For Release ED 002000. Final Report: - ; December 1988 Covering the Period 1 October 1987 to 30 September 1988 “ i i oO © GU) (S = ab) (S THE EFFECTS OF HYPNOSIS ON REMOTE VIEWING a QUALITY (U) - Fie 4 | . .,. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001-4 _ PA ae ‘ )
ff ff fe ee ee se a oi oc om oa Approved For Release 2000/0 -00789R003200200001-4 ABSTRACT (U) | ie remote viewers participated in an experiment to determine whether the overall quality of remote viewing (RV) would be enhanced by a hypnotic trance. Each viewer participated in 16 RV sessions while in trance. No significant evidence of psychoenergetic functioning was obtained, and comparisons with previous work by the same viewers were therefore rendered moot. Implications of these results for further research are discussed. if Approved For Release 2000/ -00789R003200200001-4
emi erence Approved For Release 20 96-00789R003200200001 -4 weil ‘sad . III RESULTS (U) as A. (U) Hypnotizability scales , (u) Our experienced viewer (No. 372) produced a score of 10 on the 12-point = hypnotizability scales, a 92 centile equivalent. Though he was unable to inhibit hand movement on suggestion, failed to respond to a hallucinated voice item, and experienced conflict during value and meaning alterations, he produced a deep state of relaxation, became absorbed in ” imagery processes, was able to regress, performed posthypnotic suggestions, and showed amnesia and hypermnesia, trance logic, cognitive and role distortion. Imaginal ability was highly rated - with the ability to create, manipulate, and experience imagery in all sensory fields especially when the image was positive and productive. ™ (U) The novice viewer (No. 137) scored a 7 on the hypnotizability scales, a 71 centile equivalent. She produced a deep state of relaxation, showed ability to regress and to be os absorbed in imagery, performed posthypnotic suggestions, and showed amnesia. She showed difficulty altering sensory phenomena, did not demonstrate hypermnesia, trance logic, or the = ability for cognitive and role distortion. Again, for this viewer imaginal ability was highly rated with the ability to create, manipulate, and experience imagery in all sensory fields. - B. (U) RV results mi The results of the independent judge's rank order for each RV are shown in Table 1. . | ™ Table 4 (U) RANK BY SESSION NUMBER FOR 16 TRIALS = Session No. aa Viewer 372 ~ Viewer 137 3 _ A - pproved For Release 2000/ 00789R003200200001-4
-Q0789R003200200001 -4 Approved For Release 2000/98 | ee sum of ranks for Viewer No. 372 is 50, with an associated p-value of 0.67, For Viewer No. 137, the sum is 56, with a p-value of 0.93. Since neither of these p-values is signifi cant, it appears that there has been no information transfer in this experiment. Comparisons with previous work by these viewer's would be superfluous, since there is no significant evidence of RV. Approved For Release “pen
renner re rere ret m § Approved For Release rons Pi Approved For Release 2000/ 6-00789R003200200001 -4 IV DISCUSSION (VU) i: RV has been demonstrated to be a weak phenomenon such that success on any i : : given stu nnot be expected 100 percent of the time. The following discussion focuses on three other possibilities for failure to achieve positive results in this study. wa The first possibility is that the hypnotic trance was disruptive to the usual RV processes. Since each of the viewers had participated in well over 100 previous RV trials, their particular methods of producing an RV response were relatively habituated. The viewers received no particular training on how to perform under trance, how the RV experience would differ while in trance, or extensive practice with hypnosis RV sessions. It seems reasonable to conclude that the addition of a training period prior to the taking of experimental data may have produced more positive results. Conversely it may be that the demands of the RV production process are such that the trance state is not at all conducive to producing high-quality RV. If this is so, then a decrease in performance over time might be expected as the viewers become accomplished at trance induction and deepening. Both viewers showed a tendency in the direction of decreasing performance as the study progressed (r = 0.510 with 15 df for viewer # 372, r= 0.348 with 15 df for viewer # 137). In the pilot work mentioned above the viewer produced his responses while in the waking state using a stimulus word that served as a post-hypnotic suggestion. Further experimentation may show this to be the more efficient protocol, since it dovetails nicely with our standard stimulus-response method of conducting an RV session. mi A second possibility is that the viewers chosen for this study were not the optimal individuals for this work. While ranking relatively high on the scale of hypnotizibility, these particular viewers were not hypnotic virtuosos. Demonstration of an effect using hypnosis may require the most highly susceptible subjects, corresponding to a score of 12 on the Stanford Hypnotizability Scales. s | A third potential source of interference in the hypnosis task could have been what is known in the parapsychology literature” as “displacement.” In this instance the term refers to the inability of the viewer to distinguish accurately between elements of the target and elements of its decoys in the target packet. The division of the target pool into 20 packets of five was done arbitrarily. for simplicity of judging in another experiment. In prior years a given target 8 -Q0789R003200200001 -4 oe
EE _. Approved For Release 2000/0 IA-RDP -00789R003200200001-4** was randomized with decoys from orthogonal target clusters for judging purposes after the RV session was concluded instead of before the session. Displacement into the other targets in the packet may have occurred, such that the viewer was confused about exactly what constituted the target. To check this possibility, a new set of decoys for each target was randomly chosen from orthogonal target clusters and a second judging was performed by a different judge. The second judging produced marked variability in the ranks assigned and a decline in the sum-of-ranks, with a p-value for the difference in means between the two judgings of 0.08. While this result does not achieve significance at the usual 0.05 level and may be due to judging differences, it could also suggest displacement effects. . | In order to address these issues, future experiments should be designed to eliminate these potential difficulties. Specifically, an attempt seems warranted to replicate the results of the successful pilot work mentioned above, where hypnosis was used as a memory aid and targets were randomized with decoys after the viewing. Approved For Release i : GIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001 -4 a | ) a
_...Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : —_ Final Report May 1985 Covering the Period October 1983 to October 1984 pAb PHOTON PRODUCTION (CHINESE REPLICATION) (U) ga aneen Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001-4 > — i Of
Approved For Release a Final Report PHOTON PRODUCTION (CHINESE REPLICATION) (U) Si Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001-4 . Se int
- Approved For Re Approved For Release 2000/0 . 10789R003200200001-4 I OBJECTIVE (U) |g The objective of this task was to examine and replicate foreign work in psychokinesis (PK) | DP96-00789R003200200001-4
. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001-4 a = £ : II | memonugnoN AND BACKGROUND (U) = We have attempted to’! Assess the possibility of constructing an intrusion detector — = that would be sensitive to remote viewing (RV) of facilities. In order to perform this task, we have surveyed many reports of Psychokinesis (PK While a few of these papers seemed to ‘document genuine psychoenergetic phenomena, none = really served as an exact model for testing physical correlates at the site of RV activity. Since -that survey was conducted, new reports of PK experiments by physicists in the People's = Republic of China (PRC) have emerged. 23 The two papers cited contain brief descriptions of experiments in which individuals with : exceptional vision” affected physical systems. (film, = photomultiplier tubes, and plants) when correctly identifying Chinese language characters hidden with the test apparatus. ; = _As the Chinese theméelves point out, the photomuttiplier (PM) tube has the best sensitivity, ‘stability, and resporise to transients of the three Systems examined. For these = reasons, we concluded that a replication of the PRC experiments (using SRI International RV Participants and a PM tube): afforded the most Promising test of intrusion detection. While = investigating the intrusion concept,, ‘we would be able to replicate foreign work in PK as well. (U) Specifically, the Chines reported that PM-tube-count’: rates of 102 to 103 greater -_ than background rates have been ‘produced during “exceptional vision.”’ Their signal discriminators were set to produce’ fa: ‘background of about 15 counts/s.: _Although the Chinese m claim to have eliminated sources of experimental artifact such as light leaks, electromagnetic interference, and the like, at least one report states that individuals “ must touch the surface mn of the light-proof material" or the effect is not produced.2. This procedure seems such an ; obvious potential source of artifact: that | we excluded touching entirely in our investigations. The PRC experiments also report sd: hat the anomalous signals Produced during exceptional = vision were primarily large-amplit le pulses which appeared rapidly (~1 s rise time). = L ; . a CIA RDP96-00789R003200200001-4 = Approved For Release 2 a ae
er a Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001 -4 (U) By following the above suggestions, we believe a more definitive investigation can be conducted. _ —— Despite our reservations about the large anomalies, the statistical correlations we observed represent the first evidence that intrusion detection may be possible--even in principle. Therefore, this work must be continued to confirm such a possibility. . Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RBP96-00789R003200200001-4
iw i Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001-4 I INTRODUCTION (UV) il, ’ Since the publication of the initial remote viewing (RV) effort at SRI International*', two basic questions have remained in evaluating remote viewing data: @ What is the definition of the target site? @ What is the definition of the RV response? In the development of meaningful evaluation procedures, we must address these two questions, whether the RV task is a research-oriented one (in which the target pool is known), or ‘mission (in which the target may not be known). (U) In the older, IEEE-style, outbound experiment, definitions of target and response were particularly difficult to achieve. The protocol for such an experiment dictated that an experimenter travel to some randomly chosen location at a prearranged time; a viewer's task was to describe that location. In trying to assess the quality of the RV descriptions (in a series of trials, for example), an analyst visited each of the sites and attempted to match responses to them. While standing at a site, the analyst had to determine not only the bounds of the site, but also the site details that were to be included in the analysis. To cite a specific example using this protocol: if the analyst were to stand in the middle of the Golden Gate Bridge, he/she would have to determine whether the buildings of downtown San Francisco, which are clearly and prominently visible, were to be considered part of the Golden Gate Bridge target. The RV response to the Golden Gate Bridge target could be equally troublesome, because responses of this sort were typically 15 pages of dream-like free associations. A reasonable description of the bridge might be contained in the response--it might be obfuscated, however, by a large amount of unrelated material. How was an analyst to approach this problem of response definition? (U) The first attempt at quantitatively defining an RV response involved reducing the raw transcript to a series of declarative statements called concepts.2 Initially, it was “(U) References are listed in order of appearance at the end of this report. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001 -4 Va “7
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001 -4 (U) determined that a coherent concept should not be reduced to its component parts. For example, a small red VW car would be considered a single concept rather than four separate concepts, small, red, VW, and car. Once a transcript had been “conceptualized,” the list of concepts constituted, by definition, the RV response. The analyst rated the concept lists against the sites. Although this represented a major advance over previous methods, no attempt was made to define the target site. ; During an FY 1982 program, a procedure was developed to define both the target and response material.? It became evident that before a site can be quantified, the overall remote viewing goal must be clearly defined. If the goal is simply to demonstrate the existence of the RV phenomena, then anything that is perceived at the site is important. But if the goal is to gain information that is useful » then specific items at the site are important while others remain insignificant. For example, let us assume that an office is a hypothetical target and that a single computer in that office is of specific interest. Let us also assume, hypothetically, that a viewer gives an accurate description of the shape of the office, provides the serial number of the typewriter, and gives a complete description of the owner of the office. Although this kind of a response might provide excellent evidence for remote viewing, the target of interest (the computer) is completely missed--this response, therefore, is of no interests "What is needed is a specific technique to allow assessments that are mission-oriented. ‘ ~ | This report describes a computerized RV evaluation procedure that was initially developed in FY 19844 and has been expanded and refined in FY 1986.* In its current evolution, it is an analysis that has been aimed primarily at simpler, research-oriented tasks using a known target pool. It is anticipated, however, that future refinements to existing procedures, in addition to the advances of proposed new technologies, will allow evaluation techniques to begin to address the more complex issue of , RV! ycollection. _——w *(U) This report constitutes Objective A, Task 4, “Remote Viewing Evaluation Techniques.” Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001 -4 ae |
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001 -4 _ Finally, work will be initiated to develop mission-specific descriptor lists for technical site applications. | ’ Approved For Release 2000/08/08 -G |A-RDP96-00789R003200200001-4 f ~)
gant Meee | =" approved For Release 2000fan A-RDP96-00789R003200200001-4 V CONCLUSIONS (U) (U) The FY 1986 evaluation effort has resulted in (1) refinement and extension of current techniques, and (2) identification of candidate new technologies for preliminary research. (U) The mathematical formalism for the current evaluation procedure—-the figure of merit analysis--is well understood and stable. In addition to the system's ability to provide a reasonable assessment of remote viewing data, it has also provided a mechanism for systematic . examination of inter—analyst reliability factors. (U) The descriptor lists that currently form the basis for the figure of merit analysis have been evaluated on a post hoc basis. Preliminary observations indicate that lists designed for novice responses require greater abstract descriptor capability, whereas lists designed for advanced responses (i.e., higher-quality data) require greater concrete descriptor capability. It is anticipated that fuzzy set technology will assist in formalizing the interdependence between abstract and concrete descriptors, by providing a mathematical framework through which basis vector descriptors can be combined to form concrete descriptors. (U) Research into new technologies for RV evaluation will begin in FY 1987. One of these approaches, the proposed “similarity” experiment, shows promise for identifying basis vector descriptors. A second approach, using rule-based expert systems, will explore a different dimension by endeavoring to capture RV analysts’ expertise in codifying targets. Should this initial effort in artificial intelligence prove successful, it will be expanded to address the more difficult problem of response interpretation. It is hoped that this multifaceted approach to the refinement of RV evaluation procedures will result in increased capabilities for addressing the more complex problems of mission-orientemy _ RV. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003200200001-4 31 Lf )