Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-ROEC RE FP R003800450001 -1 Final Report--Objective A, Task 4 December 1986 REMOTE VIEWING EVALUATION TECHNIQUES (U) By: BEVERLY S. HUMPHREY VIRGINIA V. TRASK EDWIN C. MAY MARTHA J. THOMSON Prepared for: PETER J. McNELIS, DSW CONTRACTING OFFICER’S TECHNICAL REPRESENTATIVE CONTRACT DAMD 17-85-C-5130 WARNING NOTICE RESTRICTED DISSEMINATION TO THOSE WITH VERIFIED ACCESS SG1A 333 Ravenswood Avenue Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. (415) 326-6200 Cable: SRI INTL MPK TWX: 910-373-2046 pal sved For Release 2000/08/10 : clas J - ot - 1-5 bana nt ventas TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-ROPBA-09789R003800450001-1 Final Report--Objective A, Task 4 December 1986 Covering the Period 1. October 1986 to 30 September 1986 REMOTE VIEWING EVALUATION TECHNIQUES (U) By: BEVERLY S. HUMPHREY ' VIRGINIA V. TRASK EDWIN C. MAY MARTHA J. THOMSON Prepared for: PETER J. McNELIS, DSW CONTRACTING OFFICER'S TECHNICAL REPRESENTATIVE CONTRACT DAMD 17-85-C-5130 SRI Project 1291 . SG1A WARNING NOTICE RESTRICTED DISSEMINATION TO THOSE WITH VERIFIED ACCESS Approved by: Copy LQ. of 15 Copies. ROBERT S. LEONARD, Executive Director This document consists of 37 pages. Geascience and Engineering Center SRI/GF-0291 CLASSIFIED BY: HQ, USAMRDC {SGRD-ZA) DECLASSIFY ON: OADR NOT RELEASABLE TO SECRET FOREIGN NATIONALS Menlo Park, California 94025 - ved For RelaaseouawOuth: GLC RAPAE<00fEeRGG63NN4E0001-1
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003800450001-1 UNCLASSIFIED ABSTRACT (U) (U) A simplified automated procedure is suggested for the analysis of free-response material. As in earlier similar procedures, the target and response materials are coded as yes/no answers to a set of questions (descriptors). By definition, this coding defines the complete target and response information. The accuracy of the response is defined as the percent of the target material that is correctly described (i.e., the number of correct response bits divided by the number of target bits = 1). The reliability of the response is defined as the percent of the response that is correct (i.e., the number of correct response bits divided by the total number of response bits = 1). The figure of merit is the product of the accuracy and reliability. The advantages and weaknesses of the figure of merit are discussed with examples. Mean chance expectations (MCE) are calculated for the figure of merit, and recommendations are made to extend current techniques and to explore new technologies. il UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003800450001-1
» wi aw Approved For Release GEL A SEVERERS 007297008800450001-1 TABLE OF CONTENTS (UV) ABSTRACT 0.0. ccc te Ree eee ERODE ER EE EEE E eee EE ere EEE EEE ii LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS 2... .. ccc ccc ee eee te ee eee eee ene enter eens iv LIST OF TABLES 2... ccc ee ee eee eee eee eee ere eee teen e teen es Vv I INTRODUCTION oo. c cc ee erence eee ete 1 Il METHOD OF APPROACH 1... ccc ccc ee eee eee e nee e enna 3 A. Figure of Merit Analysis 00... 0.0 ccc cece ee tenner eee eee tenes 3 1. Overview . 6... ccc ee cece eee eee eee teens 3 2. Mathematical Formalism .......: ccc sce ree eee eee e ne eenne 3 a. Definitions ©... 0... cece etc eee renee teens 3 b. Linear Least-Squares Analysis 20.0... cece eee erect cere eeee 6 c. Mean Chance Expectation 1.0... 0. pee ce ee eee eee 7 d. ‘Probability Assessment and Analysis ........00e ee eee ne nees 8 B. Fuzzy Set Theory--An Enhancement Technique for Descriptor List i WT ov eo) (0) >) A 11 1, Overview ooo cc cece ee tenet eee eee e erences 11 2 A Tutorial 20... ee eee tee reece renee tenes 12 3. Initial Application to RV Evaluation 0.0... 0. cece eect eeeeeaee 14 4 Potential Future Applications ....... 0.0... ec e cee eeee eee i4 Ill RESULTS foi ccc cee eee een nee ene eer nee eee e teens 16 A.  Inter-Analyst Reliability Factors 2... 0... cece eee een eee tenn tenes 16 B. Response Definition: Descriptor List Formulation ...........: eee vues 19 1. Novice Response Descriptor List 2... 0... cee eee cere tenet 19 2. Advanced Response Descriptor List ........ 00. cee eee ee eee ees 20 C. Target Definition: Implications for Target Pool Composition ........... 25 IV RECOMMENDATIONS 2. ccc ce ee eee eee eee ete ete es 27 A. Similarity Experiment 2.0.0.0... ccc cee eee ee ete eens 27 B. AT Techniques 0.0... cece eee eee te eee rete ence tne 28 C. In-House Effort 0... cee ee eee ete 29 Vv CONCLUSIONS 2c cece eee eee eee ee ene eee teens 31 REFERENCES 0.0000 c eee nee enn te teen nen e ee tee teen teen erent n ees 32 iii UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003800450001-1
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003800450001-1 UNCLASSIFIED LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS (U) 1. An MCE Figure of Merit Distribution ....... 000 eee nee eee 9 2. The Fuzzy Set “Very Young” 2.0... cece eee eee eee eee teen eee eee 13 3. Comparison Between Types of Analysts 0.0... eee eee eee eter e nee 19 4.  Baylands Nature Interpretive Center, With RV Response ........... cece ee eee eres 24 iv Approved For Release AUINGILA SS LEI ED 00789R003800450001-1 \
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003800450001-1 UNCLASSIFIED LIST OF TABLES (UV) 1. Descriptor-Bit Definition ©... 06... cece eee ee ee eee teen eens 4 2. Viewer No. 454 Results Coded by Four Analysts .. levee cece ve een ee teeneenaee 18 3. Candidate Abstract Descriptors for Novice Responses Leen eect net eee 21 4. Comparison of Target vs. Response Coding for “Baylands” Target .........-+ee50 22 5. Potential Problem Areas for Novice Targets .. 0... ccc scence ere eee e tne e neces 26 Vv Approved For Release MINGLAS 2 HELED 00780R003800450001-1
Approved For Release 200 EE -RDP96-00789R003800450001 -1 I INTRODUCTION (UV) “S) Since the publication of the initial remote viewing (RV) effort at SRI International*!, two basic questions have remained in evaluating remote viewing data: @ What is the definition of the target site? @ What is the definition of the RV response? In the development of meaningful evaluation procedures, we must address these two questions, whether the RV task is a research-oriented one (in which the target pool is known), or an intelligence-oriented mission (in which the target may not be known). (U) In the older, IEEE-style, outbound experiment, definitions of target and response were particularly difficult to achieve. The protocol for such an experiment dictated that an experimenter travel to some randomly chosen location at a prearranged time; a viewer’s task was to describe that location. In trying to assess the quality of the RV descriptions (in a series of trials, for example), an analyst visited each of the sites and attempted to match responses to them. While standing at a site, the analyst had to determine not only the bounds of the site, but also the site details that were to be included in the analysis. To cite a specific example using this protocol: if the analyst were to stand in the middle of the Golden Gate Bridge, he/she would have to determine whether the buildings of downtown San Francisco, which are clearly and prominently visible, were to be considered part of the Golden Gate Bridge target. The RV response to the Golden Gate Bridge target could be equally troublesome, because responses of this sort were typically 15 pages of dream-like free associations. A reasonable description of the bridge might be contained in the response—-it might be obfuscated, however, by a large amount of unrelated material. How was an analyst to approach this problem of response definition? (U) The first attempt at quantitatively defining an RV response involved reducing the raw transcript to a series of declarative statements called concepts.? Initially, it was "(U) References are listed in order of appearance at the end of this report. 1 SECRET Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003800450001-1
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003800450001-1 SECRET (U) determined that a coherent concept should not be reduced to its component parts. For example, a smnall red VW car would be considered a single concept rather than four separate concepts, small, red, VW, and car. Once a transcript had been “conceptualized,” the list of concepts constituted, by definition, the RV response. The analyst rated the concept lists against the sites. Although this represented a major advance over previous methods, no attempt was made to define the target site. (S) During an FY 1982 program, a procedure was developed to define both the target and response material.? It became evident that before a site can be quantified, the overall remote viewing goal must be clearly defined. If the goal is simply to demonstrate the existence of the RV phenomena, then anything that is perceived at the site is important. But if the goal is to gain information that is useful to the intelligence community, then specific items at the site are important while others remain insignificant. For example, let us assume that an office is a hypothetical target and that a single computer in that office is of specific interest. Let us also assume, hypothetically, that a viewer gives an accurate description of the shape of the office, provides the serial number of the typewriter, and gives a complete description of the owner of the office. Although this kind of a response might provide excellent evidence for remote viewing, the target of interest (the computer) is completely missed-~-this response, therefore, is of no interest as intelligence data. What is needed is a specific technique to allow assessments that are mission-oriented. (S$) This report describes a computerized RV evaluation procedure that was initially developed in FY 19844 and has been expanded and refined in FY 1986.* In its current evolution, it is an analysis that has been aimed primarily at simpler, research-oriented tasks using a known target pool. It is anticipated, however, that future refinements to existing procedures, in addition to the advances of proposed new technologies, will allow evaluation techniques to begin to address the more complex issue of operational RV intelligence collection, *(U) This report constitutes Objective A, Task 4, “Remote Viewing Evaluation Techniques.” Approved For Release 2000/8 IB IRDP96-00789R003800450001-1
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003800450001-1 UNCLASSIFIED II METHOD OF APPROACH (U) A. (U) Figure of Merit Analysis 1. (U) Overview (U) Current approaches in evaluation technology have focused on the refinement and extension of the figure of merit analysis.4 Defined in general terms, this procedure generates a figure of merit (M) between 0 and 1, which provides an accurate assessment of an RV response. The M is the product of the accuracy and reliability with which an RV response describes its correct target, as determined by an analyst’s coding of RV targets and responses according to a “descriptor list.” Table 1 provides a representative example of such a list, which was used in an FY 1986 novice RV training program. Each of the items in a descriptor list requires a binary decision from the analyst as to the item’s presence or absence in each of the targets and responses. The mathematical formalism for converting the analyst’s binary codes into Ms and their controls is detailed in Section A.2. below. 2. (U) Mathematical Formalism a. (U) Definitions (U) For a single viewer, the overall method of analysis consists of calculating a figure of merit, M, for each viewing session, and then comparing these Ms to a control set of figures of merit. 3 Approved For Release IN GLASSIEKER 00789R003800450001-1
Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003800450001-1 UNCLASSIFIED Table 1 (U) DESCRIPTOR-BIT DEFINITION Is any significant part of the scene hectic, chaotic, congested, orcluttered? Does a single major object or structure dominate the scene? Is the central focus or predominant ambience of the scene primarily natural rather than artificial or manmade? Do the effects of the weather appear to be a significant part of the scene? (e.g., as in the presence of snow or ice, evidence of erosion, etc.) Is the scene predominantly colorful, characterized by a profusion of color, by a strikingly contrasting combination of colors, or by outstanding, brightly— colored objects (e.g., flowers, stained-glass windows, etc.~—not normally blue sky, green grass, or usual building color)? Is a mountain, hill, or cliff, or a range of mountains, hills, or cliffs a significant feature of the scene? Is a volcano a significant part of the scene? Are buildings or other manmade structures a significant part of the scene? Is a city a significant part of the scene? Is a town, village, or isolated settlement or outpost a significant feature of the scene? Are ruins a significant part of the scene? Is a large expanse of water~— specifically an ocean, sea, gulf, lake, or bay-—a significant aspect of the scene Is a land/water interface a significant part of the scene? Is a river, canal, or channel a significant part of the scene? a waterfall a significant part of the scene? a port or harbor a significant part of the scene? an island a significant part of the scene? Is a swamp, jungle, marsh, or verdant or heavy foliage a significant part of the scene Is a flat aspect to the landscape a significant part of the scene? Is a desert a significant part of the scene, or is the scene predominately dry to the point of being arid? UNCLASSIFIED 4 Approved For Release WIN GadASSIEHER 00789R003800450001-1