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quantitative definition of all real targets, including types usually found in operational settings, is also a
currently unsolved problem in AI.
(U) In spite of these difficulties, an extensive literature exists on various successful methods of analyz-
ing laboratoryAC data. Most of the techniques do not require quantitative definitions of responses and
targets, but rely on human judgement for the analysis. Dawes has shown, however, that complex judge-
ments are best divided between human analysts and computers .22 A recent publication from the earlier
program explores this idea by applying a sophisticated mathematical technique, known as fuzzy sets to
the analysis ofAC data .19
(S/NF) An additional problem arises in the assessment of AC data for the intelligence community. A
detailed, high-quality example ofAC data may have little value to an intelligence analyst, because that
information was known from other sources. Likewise, a poor example ofAC data might provide a single
element as a tip-off for other assets, or provide the missing piece in a complex analysis, and thus be
quite valuable. Therefore the intelligence utility ofAC data is only weakly connected to the AC quality.
(S/NF) The analysis topic, which is described in detail in Appendix F, extends these concepts to include
a wide variety of response mechanisms, including physiological (e.g., electrodermal23
).
In addition,
it
addresses both laboratory and intelligence application domains by suggesting research directions for
constructing AC specialty— dependent a priori estimates ofAC quality. Addressing the utility issue de-
scribed above, requires close cooperation with elements within the intelligence community to establish
guidelines for assessing the value of AC data.
(S/NF) Although the analysis topic is long-range, a near-term successful mile post for this topic is an
enhanced application of fuzzy sets to laboratory and operational data.
1.1.6
(S/NF) An Intelligence Analyst Training School
(S/NF) The ideal circumstance for the use ofAC data in the intelligence community would be to treat
the data as just another form ofHUMINT With more traditional forms of HUMINT intelligence ana-
lysts are trained to assess the data and to provide a global analysis when HUMINT data are fused with
information from other collection assets. AC data should not be treated differently. This research plan
includes developing a strategy to construct a curriculum for a training school which specializes in teach-
ing intelligence analysts about AC assets and provides guidelines for producing HUMINT intelligence
reports to be easily integrated with the rest of HUMINT data. As with other forms of HUMINT it is
anticipated that this school will teach the special skills that will be needed by intelligence analysts who
focus on AC data.
1.1.7
(U) Basic Research
(U) All effort primarily designed to understand the nature of anomalous mental phenomena is defined
as basic research. Appendix G contains a schematic diagram and details about this research domain. In
this section we consider only the AC aspect, and the AP portion will be discussed below.
(U) Anomalous Cognition basic research contains three major concepts that, at a minimum, can serve
as a template for research.
The target in the above discussions
is generalized to be considered the
source of AC information. That information “propagates” across space and time to reach the receiver.
This aspect is called the transmission of information.
Finally, the information is received by a detector,
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an expanded concept of the receiver defined above.
Thus, information from a source
is transmitted
across space and time to a detector.
(U) Continuing the analogy, all psychological, and possibly all physiological aspects of a human detec-
tor (i.e., receiver) can be considered as the detector efficiency. This has the advantage of allowing the
basic research to parse out the general problem in potentially non-interacting subsections.
(U) Basic research on the source includes items that were discussed as part of the target selection topic
in Section 1.1.3 above.
In this task, however, the CSP will compute various thermodynamic and other
physical aspects of various target systems and correlate the results with AC data.
(U) Basic research on transmission primarily includes general relativity calculations of possible 4-di-
mensional energy transmission mechanisms.
Research has shown that it is possible to gain statistical
access to future unrealized events.24 This implies that information may propagate backward in time, an
idea that is a current topic of interest in the general relativity community.25 If these physics speculations
in the literature prove to be true, then causality must have a slight statistical aspect.
In other words,
usually effectsfollow causes, but occasionally physics allows for effects to occur before causes.
(U) Basic research on human detectors (i.e., receivers) has been the primary focus of the so-called
parapsychology research community. As the name implies, a substantial emphasis has been on the psy-
chological and/or personality variables and their correlations with AC performance. For the most part,
this has not been particularly successful. While there is substantial statistical evidence for AC, its corre-
lation with these variables have been weak or non-existant. The CSP will focus its detector research
primarily on the central nervous system. As mentioned in the introduction, the preliminary results are
encouraging. 10 The goal is to locate a set of neurons that may be evoked by AC stimuli
(i.e,, AC-
evoked response). The five other senses can serve as a model. IfAC is sensed by an additional sensorial
system, it is likely that the early neuronal processing will be similar to the early processing by the other
systems.
(U) If the mechanisms of AC are understood, then in principle the human receivers might be replaced
by physical hardware. The very long-term goal of the detector research is to produce such a device.
(U) AC basic research is a long-term activity, but a near-term goal is to gain enough insight into the
central nervous system so that biofeedback like training can improve AC reception.
1.1.8
(U) Communication
(U) Research has demonstrated that by using appropriate protocols, it is possible to “send" and receive
a simple binary message using AC abilities.26 '22
Usually the techniques involve a redundancy coding
scheme to enhance slightly above -chance guessing.
For example, suppose the chance probability of
guessing the color of a standard playing card is 50%. Suppose also that an AC receiver is successful at
guessing the color correctly 60% of the time.
In one experiment where the raw binary hitting rate was
60%, redundancy coding increased the hit rate to 100%. In that experiment, 50 binary bits were guessed
correctly without a single error.26
(S/NF) The CSP plan includes research to improve communications by AC techniques. The earlier
redundancy coding efforts were very inefficient, and modern communication theory can significantly
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improve the technique.
Besides the possibility of a “secure” communications channel, it is possible that
kidnapped victims and POWs could “send” information about their circumstances.
1.1.9
(S/NF) Countermeasures
(S/NF) Countermeasures
can be examined from both the AC and AP perspectives.
If the basic re-
search about the source and/or transmission characteristics prove correct, then Countermeasures are
possible within the context ofAC primarily through jammingand deception
. Countermeasures will re-
main part of the application potential of the CSP’s basic research program.
2. (U) Anomalous Perturbation
(U) The areas of research under the general heading of anomalous perturbation (AP) can be divided
into two broad categories: macroscopic and microscopic. Macro-AP involves a mental interaction
with “human-size” objects, whereas micro-AP implies an interaction with microscopic amounts of
matter including individual atoms or single biological cells.
(U) Research of anomalous perturbation is problematical in that the definition ofAP is a negative one:
After allknown sources ofperturbation have been eliminated, what is left is defined asAP. To isolate a physi-
cal/biological system completely from all known sources of perturbation is very difficult. Yet, subjective
and laboratory reports of large-scale, putative AP effects continue to appear in the open literature.
(U) The earlier program analyzed 10-years of research literature and found that a definite conclusion
about the existence of macro-AP is not possible, and concluding anything about it existence from the
“field” literature is even more difficult.28
(U) Also in the earlier program, many different physical systems were examined. After careful exper-
imentation, the program was still unable to confirm the existence of macro-AP in the laboratory. 6’7 ’8
(U) In a related effort, a single quantum measurement experiment involving photons showed that con-
sciousness was not a necessary condition for reality.9
(U) Research of microscopic anomalous perturbation is more substantial. A recent report in Founda-
tions ofPhysics analyzed over 800 individual micro -AP experiments involving random number genera-
tors.29
In these experiments, it is generally claimed that an unknown micro-AP process perturbs the
generating hardware to produce distorted output statistics. The report further analyzed an extensive
set of alternative hypotheses to explain the robust, combined statistical result, and found that none
were sufficient to account for the data. However, the heuristic model, Decision Augmentation Theory,
has convincingly shown, that these effects are due to a form ofAC rather than AP. 11
(U) The main focus of this research plan for macro-AP should be in the analysis of non—AP mecha-
nisms for the effects that are persistently reported in the literature. For example, what are the electro-
static conditions that must exist in order to move small objects isolated under a glass bell jar, or what are
the metallurgical conditions that might allow the the bending of rigid metal rods?
(U) The future research of micro—AP should begin with attempts to falsify the predictions of the Deci-
sion Augmentation Theory in a variety of target systems.
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3. (U) Integration
(S/NF) Research of anomalous mental phenomena must be integrated not only within its own commu-
nity, but, more importantly, within the broader range of physical and behavioral sciences.
In addition
intelligence applications should also be integrated with that user community.
3.1
(li) Research Integration
(U) Figure 1 shows a set of descriptions that are specifically related to AC and AP research. The bi-di-
rectional arrows indicate that an exchange of data and ideas are possible between the disciplines shown
and the CSP. For example, some of the current ideas in meta- analysis of behavioral data that are popu-
lar within the psychology community came for the traditional parapsychological research communi-
ty 3031 yet most ^ 0f
psychological screening techniques that are popular with the CSP were
developed within traditional psychology.
General Relativity
Quantum Measurement
<
Thermodynamics
Statistics/Signal Analysis
‘
Neuro -networks
UNCLASSIFIED
Psychology
Cognitive
Sciences
Program
Anthropology
Psychophysiology
Psychoimunology
Cognitive Neuroscience
Cognitive Psychology
Artificial Intelligence
Figure 1
(U) Integration of Scientific Disciplines
(U) Recently the American Anthropological Association formed a new division, The Societyfor the An-
thropology ofConsciousness, That division is establishing a technical journal to support anthropological
research of consciousness. The CSP plan includes collaborative research with members of this division
who may be able to contribute to the cultural dependencies of the AC receiver (i.e., detector efficiency).
(U) The psychophysiology of vision has already contributed to the earlier program.21 Much of what is
currently known about the mechanisms and techniques of subliminal perceptions comes from this disci-
pline. The CSP anticipates a collaborative effort with researchers at SRI International and Edinburgh
University in attempt to understand how the central nervous system process subliminal stimuli.
This
should assist in the CSPs search for an AC evoked response.
(U) The relationship between mind and body is currently discussed in the research literature32 as well
as the popular press.
Researchers at the California Institute for Transpersonal Psychology have been
active in investigating the role of mental attitudes and body chemistry. While there may not be a direct
link with AC, and exchange of techniques and experimental designs would be helpful.
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