datamatters24/research-document-archive huggingface dataset:
Approved For Release 2002/11/18
: CIA-RDP96-00789R002200590001-3
Table 5
Two-Sample t-Test Results
Statistic
Mensa/Peninsula
Mensa/Palo Alto
Peninsula/Palo Alto
Two Sample
t
2.061
9.337
3.947
Degrees of Freedom
514
889
581
p-Value
0.020
5.0 X
10"21
4.5 X
10'5
Effect Size
0.025
0.299
0.006
As measured by the effect size, the only “meaningful” comparison is between San Francisco
Mensa with the Stanford Alumni Club of Palo Alto.
It
is premature to conclude, however, that
something exists within Mensa that predisposes
its members toward possessing remote viewing
ability.
There are a number of problems that prevent such a conclusion.
First of all, the analyst
was not blind to the groups, and thus could distort the scoring.
Even if the analyst were blind,
however,
such
a
conclusions would
still be
unwarranted,
because
of the
lack
of
statistical
independence among the subjects. Additional circumstantial evidence in favor of Mensa would be
realized
if the seven individuals chosen for the second-stage screening continue to demonstrate
high-quality remote viewing ability.
C.
Second-Stage Results
Although there were a total of eight persons from the
first-stage screening who showed
qualitative
evidence
of
potential
exceptional remote
viewing
abilities,
none
participated
in
second-stage screening in FY 1989 becasue of timing and/or availability.
These eight individuals
will be invited to participate
in invidualized second-stage screenings
as part of the FY 1990
screening work.
In accordance with the FY 1989 Statement of Work—Task 6.0.5, we asked a long-time
remote viewer who has produced quality results in dream and Ganzfeld studies conducted
at
Maimonides Medical Center in the Division of Parapsychology (1972-1978), to participate in a
second-stage screening.
Table 7 shows the target and the rank assignments for each of Viewer
389’s eight trials.
The resulting sum of ranks was 11
(p <,
0.0025, effect size = 1.01). A 75%
hitting rate (6 of 8 first-place matches) where the mean expectation is 25%
is the best we have
obtained for any of our second-stage screenings during the past two years. Viewer 389 has joined
our research program and
is currently participating in one experiment.
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Approved For Release 2000/08/08
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'MOFOR'N
project sun streak
NG
. not I CE
I NTELL
:t GEMCf
kLiyjjG
G AN
METHODS
I MVOLVF
project numbers
S80S
Bi'-i IE OF
SESSTOM;:
2:l.
May
Ei
I lARTs
1300
ME rHODOI.,.OGV s
WR
SESSION NUMBER:
:|.0
date of REPORT:
24 May 88
END:
1415
VIEWER
IDENTIFIER:
Oil
Hi ggl ns' 'Ur aboar<ra^veL
Nil 11 am
(Rid
Mr t:.vs.ously reported;
if
so,
descidbe theUessefr''
<S/NF/SK)
VIEWER TASKING:
Tasting
as
in Para
OVB
represents the
first
time
thl+- ""ork.*!"'™'*!:;!
"°*ed.
Sessi on
<S/NF/SK)
COMMENTS:
No
Incleme
'f!ethodology„
^
Viewer
Oil
has
4 .
(
<;
s used
WRV
i/»VSK.=
EVALUATION:
^
G
y™LE_ VI A SKEET CHANMFi
c;
ONI...
WOFORN
HEA3S I F I ED
BY :
D I A
( D T )
DLCLASS I F Y :
0 /!DR
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: CIA-RDP96-00789R003401 170001 -5
Approved For Release 2000/08/07
: CIA-RDP96-00787R000700090011-6
TABLE
MID-EXPERIMENT RANDOMNESS TESTS*
BUTTONS
Number
Binom.
Prob
.
Yellow
Green
Blue
Red
of
Trials
Chi-Sq
.
Initial States
100
0 .880
>0.80
Transitions
Y
204
199
199
216
818
0.944
>0.80
\
To
G
•
192
223
222
207
844
3.043
>0.30
From
B
/
212
207
226
222
867
1.064
>0.70
R
209
207
222
221
859
. S60
*
a
CO
o
A
All States
841
865
892
890
3488
1.988
>0.50
Nondiagonal
Transitions
613
613
643
645
2514
1.535
>0.50
Diagonal
Transitions
204
223
226
221
874
1.341
>0.70
l
'
I
l
!
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HITS
/RUN
-
Out
of
100
trials/run.
Approved For Release 2000/08/07
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RUN NUMBER
-
100 Trials/Run.
p =
|>cr
trial
FIGURE
DATA SUMMARY FOR SUBJECT
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— POR LA Reghetry. "Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA- -RDP96-00787R00079009001 4-30 ee ee ee OU as a ~ 20 FEB i875 MEMORANDUM FOR: Associate Deputy Director for Administration SUBJECT : SRI Report on Perceptual Augmentation 1. I read SRI's report with great interest and found some of the narrative and observations to be intriguing. Unfortunately, they were unable to find any physiological measurable basis for their observations, a problem which has plagued research in this area for many years. At least to this reader I thought the report suffered. unnecessarily from statistical over kill mixed with observational data which I found difficult to separate. It would have been helpful to know what the initial protocol was and to have further clarification of the control group {(learner/ control?) and the reasons for grouping some of the subjects for statistical reasons. Personally, I cannot endorse the statement that this report "establishes overwhelming scientific evidence for. the existence of human perceptual capabilities which are as yet unexplained." 2. Putting aside any shortcomings in the report or my interpretation of it, I believe that the Agency should continue to monitor this area which I refer to as unusual sensory perception with particular emphasis-on measure- ments of energy transfer which I believe must exist if this phenomenon is to be of any practical value to the - Agency. The Office of Medical Services has indicated its interest in parapsychology to the Office of Research and Development in a formal requirement and I hope that senior officials of this Agency will continue to support modest efforts in this area of great potential even though the field enjoys little support by scientists in general. Deputy Director of Medical Services SG1I Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000700090014-3
|w/A K; S 4
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2 0 FED
1376
MEMORANDUM FOR:
Associate Deputy Director
for Administration
SUBJECT
:
SRI
Report
on Perceptual Augmentation
1.
I
read SRI's
report with great interest
and found
some
of
the narrative
and observations
to be
intriguing.
Unfortunately,
they were
unable
to
find
any physiological
measurable basis
for their observations,
a problem which
has plagued research
in
this
area for many years.
At
least
to
this
reader
I
thought
the
report suffered unnecessarily
from statistical over kill mixed with observational data
which
I
found difficult
to
separate.
It would have been
helpful
to know what
the
initial protocol was
and
to have
further clarification of
the
control
group
(learner/
control?)
and
the
reasons
for grouping
some
of the subjects
for statistical
reasons.
Personally,
I
cannot endorse
the
statement
that
this
report
"establishes
overwhelming
scientific evidence
for. the existence
of human perceptual
capabilities which
are
as
yet unexplained."
2.
Putting
aside
any shortcomings
in
the
report
or
my interpretation
of
it,
I believe
that
the Agency should
continue
to monitor
this
area which
I
refer
to
as
unusual
sensory perception with particular emphasis -on measure-
ments
of energy
transfer which
I believe must exist
if
this phenomenon
is
to be
of
any practical value
to
the
Agency.
The Office
of Medical Services
has
indicated
its
interest
in parapsychology
to
the Office
of Research
and
Development
in
a formal
requirement
and
I
hope
that
senior officials
of
this
Agency will
continue
to support
modest efforts
in
this
area
of great potential
even
though
the
field enjoys
little
suppo
Deputy Director
of Medical
Services
SGI
I
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Approved For Release 2004/08/25 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000700090015-2 remy ag rr a! ak papers in7e sak af | BD/S§T-1381-76 MEMORANDUM FOR: Associate Deputy Director for Administration FROM: , Assacilate Deputy Director for Science and Technology SUBJLCT: Parapsychology Research REFERENCE: Memorandum from A/DDA to ADD/S&T dated 23 February 1976, Subject: SRI Repert on Perceptual Augmentation 1. Recauso you have expressed an interest, sg a Directorate, in tho subject of parapsychology, I would like to outline our current research plans in this area, 2. AS you may know, we elected not to continue the SRI research project because of its Substantial cost and because of the generally negative findings in the physiological sor- tion of the research, Yor example, a promising exrlier ecor- relation between brain wave patterns and the on-off status of a hidden Light inside a Streen room was not substantiated . by the most recent Study. The operationally oriented portion of the SRI work did yield sone very interesting findings, Unfortunately, these were open to question because of pro- cedural shortcomings, such as the tack of controls, lack of predetermined criteria fer "hits," failure to follow accepted double blind nethedology, and the involveacnt of experimental team menbers themselvas as subjects, 3. We de agree that the field requires close observation, however, until we can identify promising and potentially use- ful resoarch alternatives. #e have programed a significant Survey project for FY-77 and a follow-on for FY-78, The FY~77 work will include an in-depth review of the recent Jiterature, togethor with visits to laboratories doing sig- nificant research in the fiold, The contractor will be a reputable scientist who helds neither a position ef flat rejection nor an outright espousal of paranormal phenoriena SG1 [ . Approved For Release 2004/08/25 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000700090015-2 fin
SG1I Approved For Release 2004/08/25 ; CIA-RDP96-00787R000700090015-2 i. No . ia we bie eg aoa | Dos tne SUBJECT ; Parapsychology Research generally, At the sane time we wlll attempt to determine internal criteria as to what types and levels of paranormal performance would be considerad important to the Agency if they covld be demonstrated. weayre Stevens SG1I Distribution: Original - Addressee - B/OTS ~ ADD/S&T ~ D/ORD LSR/ORD - DD/S§T Registry ~ ORD Registry PADD bel ee pel pa { Approved For Release 2004/08/25 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000700090015-2 .
Approved For Release 2004/08/25
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DB/SQT-1381-76
MEMORANDUM FOR:
Associate Deputy Director for Administration
FROM:
SUBJECT:
REFERENCE:
Associate Deputy Director for Science and
iechnology
Parapsychology Research
Memorandum from A/DDA to ADD/S 5T dated
23 February 1976,
Subject:
SRI Report
on Perceptual Augmentation
Dircctorate
Ca
?«
0fHU
ehfr f'P*®**®*
interest,
as
a
directorate, m the subject of parapsychology
I wnnid nvn
to outline our current research plai/in ttio'are™
ll*°
2,
As you stay know, wo elected not
to continue
research project because of its sub»ta»ti£ cos^anl because
tion
h
o£
S
the
r
?esL?ch'
ltl
ror
:fintUn
f
S
ln the Physiological por-
t
research,
For example,
n promising earlier car-
li' a hidden u»ht
inJi2|
,V0 putS:eras raJ the oS-off status
of So w?
tJ?r^,
St
V
dp.
The ^rationally orien^fpor^on
UnfortunatoTv hh«/fela S0M very investing findings,
c£d«£si S’ ^ 30 *ere
, °Fen
question because of pro-
shortcomings,
such
as
the ladt of controls
lack of
dlutlt hlin*
C
5v
it:
1r
f
a f0T
failure
to follow accepted
ouolo
hlint* methodology,
and the involvement of experimental
team members themselves
as subjects.
experimental
,
-
3 *
We
agree that the field requires close observer 4m
however,
until we can identify promising and potSStiall^S^?
survey^Jjecf
1^^
i^°
!
]
aT? ProSrajnacd
a significant
survey project for M -77 and
a follow-on
for FY-78.
The
:Y.~ 77
v/ill
include an in-depth review of the recent
nil?”Sr°*
t0g%th
?r * ith visit^to laboratories doin^sig-
nificant research in the field.
The contractor w*n
„
reputable scientist who holds neither a position* of flat
rejection nor an outright espousal of paranoia? pLnoLha
I
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SUBJECTS
Parapsychology Research
SGI
I
internal criteria as
to what tyre***
attempt
to determine
performance would be consider«dP imnnJ^-
J
V
* ls
? f Parai™™al
they could be demonstrated
“
1 “porta 'lt
«•<> the Agency
if
Sayre Stevens
Distribution:
Original
- Addressee
- D/OTS
- ADD/SST
- D/ORD
- LSR/ORD
-
DD/SftT Registry
- ORD Registry
LSR/ORD/DD/SST:
16 March 1976
SGI
I
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STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTE MENLO PARK, CALIFORNIA 94025 (415) 326-6200 January 27, 1975 SG1l SGFOIA3 j Dear Jerry, I am writing to let you know that we have apparently struck pay dirt in the administration of the Halstead-Reitan Neuropsychology Test Battery. Let me begin by expressing my appreciation for your guidance in suggesting this particular series of tests. According to the neuropsychologist who administered the tests, pre- liminary analysis of the data indicated very promising results. On the basis of the analyses to date, it appears that a consistent pattern is emerging in which good performers in our area of interest show a very high level of proficiency in certain spatial tasks as compared to more average abilities in other tasks. (Some individual results were exceedingly atypical with respect to the established norms.) The preliminary findings suggested a congruence with other data on right versus left hemispheric specialization of sufficient strength that he added some special tests for this area. He is presently correlating the data with that obtained by the Department of Psychiatry, Palo Alto Medical Clinic, and will be forwarding his results to me shortly. As soon as the written report is in hand I shall send it along without delay. ‘Please distribute the additional copies of the letter — 0Oti‘isC*@CY SGC1l and Fe I do not have an expedient address for them. SG1I With best regards, Ned” (2 - H.E. Puthoff PhD Electronics and Bioengineering Laboratory HEP: j1s Enc. ec: CALLE. STANRES, MENLO PARK ¢ TWX 910 373-1246 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000700090016-1 Pee
SGI
I
SGFOIA3
SGI
I
SGI
I
Appt^^^^
Release 2000/08/07
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STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTE
MENLO PARK, CALIFORNIA 94025
(415) 326-6200
I
January
27,
1975
Dear Jerry,
I am writing
to
let you know
that we have apparently struck pay dirt
in the administration of
the Hals tead-Rei tan Neuropsychology Test
Battery.
Let me begin by expressing my appreciation for your guidance
in suggesting this particular series of tests.
According
to
the neuropsychologist who administered
the
tests,
pre-
liminary analysis
of
the data indicated very promising results.
On
the basis
of
the analyses
to
date,
it appears
that
a consistent
pattern is emerging
in which good performers
in our area of
interest
show a very high level
of proficiency
in certain spatial
tasks
as
compared
to more average abilities
in other
tasks.
(Some individual
results were exceedingly atypical with respect
to
the established
norms.)
The preliminary findings suggested
a congruence with other
data on right versus
left hemispheric specialization of sufficient
strength that he added some special tests
for this
area.
He
is
presently correlating
the data with that obtained by
the Department
of Psychiatry,
Palo Alto Medical Clinic,
and will be forwarding
his results
to me shortly.
As soon as
the written report
is
in hand
I shall send
it along without delay.
te
the additional copies
of
the letter
to
as
I do not have an expedient address
for
With best regards,
H.E.
Puthoff PhD
Electronics and Bioengineering Laboratory
Please distribu
and r
them.
SGI
I
HEP: j Is
Enc
.
CABLE.
STANRTS, MLNLO PARK
- TWX 010
3 / 3
- 1 2 40
h
o
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[Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2 | Internattions Final Report--Objective |, Task 1 December 1988 Covering the Period 31 July 1987 to 30 September 1988 META-ANALYSIS OF FORCED-CHOICE PRECOGNITION EXPERIMENTS By: EDWIN C. MAY SRI International CHARLES HONORTON DIANE B. FERRARI GEORGE HANSEN . Psychophysical Research Laboratorles Prepared for: Peter J. McNelis, DSW CONTRACTING OFFICER’S TECHNICAL REPRESENTATIVE CONTRACT DAMD17-85-C-5130 SRI Project 1291 Approved by: MURRAY J. BARON, Director Geosclence and Engineering Center 333 Ravenswood Ave. @ Mento Park, CA 94025 i bd For Release 2000708108 | Cha RBP96067 soRdb2 2004 tti001-2
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2 I INTRODUCTION We have subcontracted to Psychophysical Research Laboratories (PRL) to conduct a meta-analysis of the forced-choice precognition literature. Mr. Honorton, the director, has met the requirements of the subcontract. Attached, is the deliverable from PRL. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT 2.1... ccc ee eee teens 1 OBJECTIVES 1.0... ccc ee ee eee een eee 2 DELINEATING THE DOMAIN ........ 0.22 e eee eens 3 Source of Studies 2.1... . cw eee eee ee ees 3 CriteriaforInclusion 2... ..... 0.0 c eee eee eee 3 Outcome Measures .. 0... 0000 cee eee eee eee 3 General Characteristics of the Domain .............. 4 OVERALL CUMULATION ...... 0... cee eee weenie 6 Replication across Investigators ...........0000005 7 The Filedrawer Problem ...........0.20 ccc eeees 8 OUTLIER ELIMINATION ..........000ccc ce eeeeae 10 STUDY QUALITY ..... 0... . cece ee ee ee 13 Study Quality Criteria... ee eee 13 Study Quality Analysis .. 0... 0.2 ccc cee ee eee 14 Quality Extremes 2... 0... cece eee eee es 15 Quality Variation in Publication Sources ............. 15 Study Quality in relation to Year of Publication ......... 16 “REAL-TIME” ALTERNATIVES TO PRECOGNITION ...... 17 Method of Determining RNT Entry Point ............ 18 Use of Mangan’s Method ............0 00 ce eueee 18 MODERATING VARIABLES .......... 0000 ee eeees 19 Selected versus Unselected Subjects ............0.. 19 Individual versus Group Testing ... 2.0.0... 00 eeeee 21 Feedback 2... 0... cc ce eee ee ee teens 22 Time Interval . 2... ee eee ees 24 Influence of Moderating Variables in Combination ....... 26 DISCUSSION 2.0... ccc ec eee eee teens 27 REFERENCES 2.0... cc cc eee cee eee teens 29 CHRONOLOGICAL LISTING OF STUDY REFERENCES .... 30 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2
Approved For Release 2000/Qjgfl)^ jClAj*DP96-00788R001 300210001 -5
VII
DISCUSSION
(U)
(U)
The first part
of
the objective of this program was
to determine
the degree to which certain selected personnel are able to interact,
by-
mental means alone, with sensitive electronic equipment.
To assess
the
statistical results quoted above properly,
we must
comment
further on the
survey results discussed in Section
III.
One criticism that
is
levied
frequently against
such research
is the suggestion that
the experimenters
might only report
the good results and ignore the unsuccessful results.
Let us
suppose,
for example,
that for every successful experiment reported
there were ten other experiments
that were both unreported and unsuccessful.
If,
then, we interpret the survey results
in accordance with this hypothesis,
the odds are greater than 2500=1 against the chance that the expanded data
base would have
so many successful experiments.
If we consider the
com-
plexity and time
constraints
of the various experiments
,
it seems unlikely
that selective reporting can account
for the survey results.
(S)
The results might possibly be accounted for by subtle,
yet
quite
ordinary influences.
As mentioned in Section
II, we noticed four major
areas
in which the survey was incomplete, which prevented us
from properly
assessing these influences.
The possibility
of
such influence was one of
the principle reasons
for repeating the experiment.
In our experiment we
attended to the insufficiencies as
follows:
•
As reported in May and Hubbard
we performed detailed
analyses
of the physics associated with the random
sources and determined their particular sensitivities
to environmental parameters.
We noted that
the diode
was mildly sensitive to temperature,
and
it was
monitored throughout
the experiment.
(There were no
significant correlations
of
small temperature fluc-
tuations with statistical successes).
A quantum
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~ ake sree Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2 Meta-analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments 4 —_— OC “4 Positive signs if the study outcome supports the investigator’s hypotheses and have negative signs if the outcome is opposite the investigator’s hypotheses. The use of these two measures allows us to assess both overall accuracy (hitting) and lawfulness (predictability). Effect Sizes: Most parapsychological experiments, particularly those in the older literature, have used the trial rather than the subject as the sampling unit. Thus, we must use a trial-based estimator of effect size. The effect size for each study is the z-score divided the square root of the number of trials in the study. As with significance levels, we have two effect sizes for each study. One reflects overall directional hitting (ESair) and the other is based on the investigators’ predictions of hitting or missing (ESpred). General Characteristics of the Domain We located 309 studies in 113 separate publications. These studies were contributed by 62 different senior authors and were published over a 52-year period, between 1935 and 1987. Considering the half-century time-span over which the precognition experiments were conducted, it is not surprising that the studies are quite diverse. The data base comprises nearly 2 million individual trials and more than 50,000 subjects. Study sample sizes range from 25 to 297,060 trials (median = 1,194), The number of subjects ranges from 1 to 29,706 (median = 16). The studies employ a variety of methodologies, ranging from guessing Zener cards and other card symbols, to automated random number generator experiments (Figure 1). The domain encompasses diverse subject populations: the most frequently used population is students (used in approximately 40% of the studies); the least frequently used populations are the experimenters themselves and animals (each used in about 5% of the studies). Though a few studies tested subjects through the mail, more typically subjects were tested in person, either individually or in groups. Target selection methods range from manual card-shuffling or dice-throwing to the use of random number tables or random number generators. The time-interval between the subjects’ responses and target generation varies from less than one second to one year. eee Psychophysical Research Laboratories Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2 Meta-analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments FIG. 1.2. PRECOGNITION TESTING METHODS TOP LEFT: Zener cards. TOP RIGHT: Subject tested with 4-choice random number generator. BOTTOM RIGHT: Block diagram for 4-choice RNG. BOTTOM LEFT: Apparatus used for small rodent anticipation of shock experiment. a a Ae i GCE, Psychophysical Research Laboratories Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2
Approved For Release 2002/11/18
: CIA-RDP96-00789R002200590001-3
Table 6
Results of Second-Stage Screening with Viewer 389
Session #
Target
Rank
i
Project Blue Book
Manhattan Project
Skiing
Atomic Bomb Blasts
Tacoma Narrows Bridge
Greek Temple
Tacoma Narrows Bridge
Project Deep Quest
D.
Conclusions
In the past, the group screening procedure has been successfull in selecting people with
natural remote viewing ability.
Two individuals from approximately 200 were asked to become
regular remote viewers in the Cognitive Sciences Program.
Because
of
scheduling
difficulties,
successfull
candidates
from
this
year’s
first-stage
screening have yet to participate in the second-stage.
Even if all of these candidates satisfy the
second-stage requirements,
this screening procedure
is
a labor-intensive and time-consuming
method of identifying individuals with natural ability for high quality remote viewing.
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