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Additional
data analysis
is,
of
course,
performed
to determine
how close to ground
truth
the data actually
was.
This may
be
o-f
value
in understanding
how
to conduct
-future projects
o-f
this
n at ure.
3 .
EVALUA T I
O
N RESULTS
( U
(S/NF/SS-3)
Overall
data correlations
for
all
SUN STREAK
operational
and operational
simulation projects performed since
1986 are shown
in Figure
5.
These results were obtained
by
averaging
the* data entered
on
the Summary Data Evaluation sheets
for
each project primarily for two data categories
(i.e.
large
scale and
small
scale object
and function).
The top
lines
on the
bar charts reflect data averages obtained from the proven
or
experienced
viewers.
For some projects,
especially some
of
the
CN and
Cl
projects,
the distinction between
large scale and
small
scale
is not
clearcutp
furthermore.,
this differentiation
may
not.
,
tie.; tpb 4-mppirt ahit
”, .-.E-pr; the. --.prted i'c t±-vbn:pat egtfry i'an'd ''mastSof
'' t.hp
projects,
data correlations were based mainly
on
a hit/miss
calculation.
(S/NF/SS-3)
Figure
indicates that,
on
the average,
data
from proven SUN STREAK viewers
for
S/T projects
will
tend
to have
a 20 percept
to 30 percent correlation with ground
truth
for
small
scale targets,
and
a 30 percent
to 50 percent correlation
with ground
truth
for
large scale target features.
Likewise,
for
CT or
CN projects,
about 20 percent
to 50 percent
of
SUM STREAK
data would
tie expected
to correlate with ground
truth.
Caution
must be exercised .in
interpreting this data,
however,
since the
database
' with
known ground truth
is’ quite
low
in
these
categories.
For
Cl
and Document Reading projects,
SUN STREAK
data shows
a 40 percent
to
60 percent correlation
level
with
ground
truth;
however
the size
of
this database
is also quite,
low.
The
Document. Reading projects were,
however,
carefully
isolated
and
in
a known
or designated
location.
Predictive data
of
the complex
event type
(e.g.,
political /mi 1 i tary situations)
sih ows
a
ve r y
1 ow da t a
c or r e 1 a t i on
(i.e.,
r.e 1 i ab i I i t y
)
af
a b ou t
percent
or
less.
(S/NF/SS-3)
If
all
SUN STREAK projects are averaged
together,
as shown
in Figure
6,
data correlation would range from
about
20 percent
for
small
scale aspects to about
40 percent
for
large scale aspects.
While
"averaging"
such data may indicate
overall
results
in
the
long
run,
such averaging tends
to washout
those results
that have singular
high
merit,
such
as the
lo
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LARGE SCALE
(TEST FACILITY, AIRFIELD)
MOFORN
SMALL SCALE
(LASER TEST, ANTENNA DISH)
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ms
OVERALL AVERAGES FOR
~
-
ALL PROJECT TYPES
PERCENT OF
DATA CORRELATION
",
-
...
NOFORN
ALL PROJECTS
SP5353.01
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CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260003-4
/'0
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identification
several
months
in advance
of
a spec! tic area
in
the US where
a
-fugitive was later
-found.
In this case,
SUN
STREAK data was not
acted
upon;
-fortunately,
the
-fugitive was
nevertheless abducted
in this area due to the alertness
of
a
1 oc a 1
1 aw
en -f or c emen t
o -f -f i c i a 1
.
(S/NF/SS—3)
Another
way
of
considering overall
SUN STREAK
project data correlation
is to consider only the proven viewers.
This data
is shown
in Figure
7,
-for times when these experienced
viewers received
a
or
2+
in
the? numerical
ratings assigned
to
their data correlations.
Only two types
of
data are presented
_
here;
S/T,
and Personal i ty data as obtained
from the various
Cl,
CN and
Cl
projects.
For
S/T projects,
proven viewers would
be
expected
to re?ceive
a high
(i.e.
approx.
70 percent)
data
correlation rating
on
about
20 percent
of
the S/T projects
attempted.
For Personality projects
(i.e.
,
background,
'.state—uf
the-health,
specific activities)
,
around
50 percent
to 60 percent
of
the "projects would
yield
hi gh .results..
Essential 1 y ,
this
-.char-t-i-hdi-c^
-th^.- present, •§.UN
;i-
STREAK staff
and
' suggests' that more projects on foreign
or
Cl
target personalities are warranted.
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—
EXPECTED RESULTS FOR APPROXIMATELY
70% DATA ACCURACY
SELECTED PERSONNEL
COho
UJ
“Do
cc
Q.
ULO
1-z
UJo
cc
UJ
Q.
S/T
PERSONALITY
DATA
ZZZ7.Z1 .MOFORN
PROJECT TYPE
SP5353.03
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in
<u>
( B / NF / SS- 3 )
A 1 1 h oug h
t h e ove r a II
da t a
c or re 1 a t i on s
p r ov i d ed
i n
1 1") e prev :L ou©
sec t
:i on
h ave,
in
©ome
i nsta n ces,
have
a
low
overall
average,
the results are unique enough
to warrant
-further
at t en t i on
an d
c on t i n ued
SUN STREAK
ac t i v i t y «
Even
in
t h e
1 owes
t
reliability case
<i.e.,
predictive),
identification
o-f
even one
important
-future event
out
of
ten
could
in
fact
be highly
significant
for
cost
or
life saving
«
These
"averages"
do not
do
j ust i c e
t o
t h e sin g 1 e
un i q ue
c ases
t hat
cost
little to act
tip an
,
as
in the case
of
the fugitive location cited
in section
3.
(S/NF/SB—3)
Specific findings that resulted from in-depth
r e v i ew
af
t h e
en t i r e
BUN
SI"REA l<
d a t a
b ase
i n c 1 ud e s
o
" Individuals'
perf orman.ce correl ates with project
.. type v
v.-.
v 7;Th^.s...pbsBryat^i ori^Tva^
sired -iit
/
matching, and
overall' data correfatidns would
be expected to
improve
in
the future*
o
SUN STREAK has
a distinct potential
for direct
c ontribut i on, to certain
Cl
,
CN
and;, GT cases ,
as born out
by
specific
instances, over
the past two
year's,
o
Predict! ve
d ata jl©^ £r om is ing
unde
ta i n
condi tion s,
such
as near
term events or situations that
do
not
involve
‘Complex
interactions*
b
•
S/T data ,
t houflhr having promise for
select- tasks
,
• does
n ot
y }
\4
P a r ame t r i e
d a t a «
a
. SUN STREA !<
v i ewe r s
wgr k
we 1
3.
lahd e r
op er a t i on a I
stress.
It
may be that
an environment
of
operational
stress
generates
a clear
and
immediate need.
This situation seems
to faster conditions that enables RV to function
better.
a
Obtaining highly reliable. EV data and
then applying
it
to
real
operational
projects
is difficult.
However,
it
is
evident
that continued
work
with
Rv data does result
in
greater
insight
on
how best
to use
RV data and
on how best
to utilize RV talent
available.
Thus ?
it
is anticipated
t hat
R V
d at a
ut i 1 i ty
w i 1 1
i n c: r ea©e
a©
e x p er i e n c e
of
theJB U N
B
f EEAk
t e am
g r ow©
/<
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