Inter BREPEOSMP RG E48 20b8OBAB : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100 fH00tHZ6:07—406—XX Phenomenological Research and Analysis Authors: Edwin C. May, Ph.D. and Wanda L. W. Luke 15 February 1992 ——————s a a hw F A | AZ 26h UL Wes Science Applications International Corporation An Employee-Owned Company Presented to: U.S. Government Contract MDA908—91—C—0037 (Client Private) Submitted by: Science Applications International Corporation Cognitive Sciences Laboratory 1010 El Camino Real, Suite 330, P.O. Box 1412, Menlo Park, CA 94025 « (415) 325-8292 Omer SSB TO VRE FOP REIGISE 2000/08/08" C1ARDP 96007 B9ROO3 TU8 TOGO TD” Sat, Tueson
PhERIHENAIDG MARA ARE AP AAR Ay nSld THRUTIAR RE SEARO 3100160001 -0 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES 2.0.1... cece ene nnn ence eee e teen eens eneeneeees ii LIST OF TABLES 2.2.0... occ eee ene nee e eben neta tenes ee terereeeee iii IT OBJECTIVE 2.0... ccc ccc een te eee ee eben ene neen entre reese 1 II INTRODUCTION ....... ccc cece eee eee tenet eee eeeeeeennere 2 TI PROGRESS TO DATE 2.0.00... ccc ccc cece cece e nce n eee b een een ereeeneteees 3 6.2 Basic Research ....... ccc cece cee cee eee e eee eee teen eteeeenees 3 6.3 Applied Research ........ 0. ccc cece ete cece eee eee e eee enenenaee 9 6.4 Research Methodology .......... 0. ccc c eee cece cece eee e teeta eee neeeenns 11 TV GLOSSARY 20.0... ccc ccc ene tence enn e eee en eset bebe nee eeunees 12 REFERENCES 2.0.0... ccc eee tence een nen e een eee e nee ee en eee pe benenes 13 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100160001-0 i
Phoheptoverd ged ated sec BAR O81 8) SiG) An RARER d}1O789R003 100160001-0 | OBJECTIVE The object of this document is to provide an interim technical report on tasks 6.2 “Basic Research,” 6.3 “Applied Research,” and 6.4 “Research Methodology” as listed in the 1991 Statement of Work. This report covers the time period from 4 February 1991 to 31 December 1991, and includes all subtasks.” * This report constitutes the combined (i.c., first two) deliverables DI-MISC-80508 under contract number MDA908-91-C-0037. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100160001-0 1
PHaeNBHOG aRARAs rc AUR HAs SM inkRbPIAe SrOHSAPROOS100160001-0 Il INTRODUCTION Under Statement of Work items 6.2, 6.3, and 6.4 in contract MDA908—91—C—0037, the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory of Science Applications International Corporation is tasked to conduct pheno- menological research and analysis. This document details the activity accomplished under these items and constitutes the interim report covering the period from 4 February to 31 December 1991. N _Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100160001-0
PHARGKRYRAOG RAR ALRASR APOALPRINE yea nRREHRA ROASAGROO3 100160001-0 lll PROGRESS TO DATE This section describes the progress to date for each of the sub-tasks listed under items 6.2, 6.3, and 6.4 (basic and applied research and research methodology, respectively). The section numbering corresponds to the numbering in the Statement of Work. 6.2 Basic Research 6.2.1 Magnetoencephalography (MEG) Investigations From 8 through 22 September 1991, the first of a three-part MEG investigation was carried out using receivers from a variety of populations. Details of the protocol may be found in a separate document, which has been approved by the Scientific Oversight Committee (SOC).!" It is beyond the scope of this report to describe the protocol in detail; however, we provide a brief overview here. Each of twelve receivers contributes ten blocks of data. Each block consists of ten two-minute runs each of which contain approximately 100 remote and 100 pseudo stimuli. Each block of data is accompanied by a control block of equal length during which the conditions are identical to the experimental block; however, no receiver is present under the MEG. The dependent variable is the average effect size of the RMS relative phase shift (i.e., prestimulus to poststimulus) of the dominant alpha rhythm. Table 1 shows the results in the experimental condition for the first six receivers. The shaded receiver number indicates those that were specified a priori as being among the formal participants. The average effect size, the total number of stimuli and the p-value, which was determined by Monte Carlo tech- niques, are shown as £, N, and p, respectively. The differences between the remote and pseudo stimuli are shown as t-scores with df degrees of freedom and an associated p-value of p. 0.100.053 0.05040.071 24.10 | 1.615 0.086+0.059 0.056+0.032 8.95 | 0.970 8 8 | 172 || oosr-o.0s2 [445 [5.86 | 0.03030037 | 431 | 20.66 | 1.596_| 6 | , 38.82 1.600_| 6 | 8. | 6 | . 6 | 6 | Table 1. Preliminary Results for the Experimental Condition Remote Stimuli Pseudo Stimuli (RS-PS) jae] | t _ ee ee ee | 0.000240.014 —0.043-£0.011 99.99 | 4.920 | 041 |] -0.080-+0.037 98.55 | —0.069-£0.047 92.57 | —0.376 : 0.0570.028 | 2053 0.011+0.027 | 2095 | 34.43 | 2.415 * Times 1072 * References may be found at the end of this document. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100160001-0 3
PhAVRSFRNEHOG RFEARA RASA AP ARUP RIDA ofalAriREP Ae xO SAQROO3 100160001-0 We see in Table 1, that formal receivers 708 and 308 produced individually significant results in the absolute magnitude of the effect size (i.e., compared to zero). The totals shown in Table 1 do not include the data from receivers 172 or 041, but do account for 45% of the expected data from the remaining receivers. Nonetheless, trends are evident. Averaged over the formal participants, the absolute effect size is sig- nificant (i.e., p < 0.018) and the difference between remote and pseudo stimuli is significant (e., ¢ = 2.415, df = 6, p = 0.026). Table 2 shows the same data for the control blocks (i.e., no receiver present). Table 2. Preliminary Results for the Control Condition Remote Stimuli Pseudo Stimuli t(RS—PS) | df pete] = Nie [a0 Dim _|-aavzams [we [2a ee : san | ome Lo [10 7 = rd 0.027+-0.030 | 2044 | 17.99 | 0.015-440.009 | 2142 3883] 0.779 | 6 | * Times 1072 The totals are for the formal participants only. The average absolute effect size and the difference be- tween remote and pseudo stimuli are well within mean chance expectation. Table 3 shows the comparison between the experiment and control conditions. The differences are shown as t-scores with their associated p-values for the remote and pseudo stimuli, respectively. Re- ceivers 708 and 308 show individually significant differences between the experiment and control condi- tion for remote stimuli, and a trend is evident for the combined data of the formal participants (.e., t = 1.464, df = 6, p < 0.233). The combined result for the pseudo stimuli is within mean chance expectation (i.e., t = —0,314, df = 6, p< 0.618). Table 3. Comparison between Experiment and Control Conditions Remote Stimuli Pseudo Stimuli (asm [s fom | oa [a [an Pam [ 2mm fe [amr [1359 [6 [sas * Times 1072 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100160001-0 4
PrOREKRYRSIEGREAR RGAE APARIPRINA sPADRERAHORLAEROOS 100160001-0 Table 3. (continued) Comparison between Experiment and Control Conditions [ =rae8 [6 [a732 [15a [6 [91.75 | (ag 9208 [6 [9999 | veer [os [o287 Losi [ 3000 [6 [one | 2m [6 [oe I * Times 1072 We have collected and analyzed 15% of the total expected data. With a small sample it is difficult to speculate about the final result; however, if the trends shown in Tables 1-3 continue, then we can expect to replicate the earlier MEG result. Additionally, the new result would provide circumstantial evidence that a technical error may have occurred in the original study. We believe that we may have mislabeled remote and pseudo stimuli for one half of all of the data in the original study. This would account for the overall significant result for the pseudo stimuli in that study. The absolute magnitude of the effect size resulting from the neuromagnetic response to remote stimuli is consistent with a “medium-sized” behavioral phenomenon according to accepted definitions.” 6.2.2 Data Patterns/Correlations 6.2.2.1 AC/Target Feature Correlations We have reviewed our standard static target pool of 100 National Geographic magazine photographs and a set of 30 clips of popular video movies and documentaries and analyzed them with regard to the total change of Shannon entropy (AS). The complete details of that analysis can be found in the techni- cal protocol, which is pending approval from the SOC. We identified eight clusters of static targets. Each cluster is comprised of photographs of near-constant AS, but the clusters are significantly different from each other. From these eight clusters, we constructed ten packets of five targets each. The targets within a packet were drawn from the same entropy cluster; however, they were selected on the basis of visual dissimilarity to provide a basis for visual rank ordering in the analysis of the AC data. We identified four clusters of dynamic targets. Each cluster is comprised of video clips of near-constant AS, but the clusters are significantly different from each other. From these four clusters, we constructed four packets of five targets each. The targets within a packet were drawn from the same entropy cluster; however, they were selected on the basis of visual dissimilarity to provide a basis for visual rank ordering in the analysis of the AC data. Figures 1 and 2 show the cluster diagrams for static and dynamic targets. In both cluster diagrams, only the selected targets are shown with their associated AS, and dashed boxes indicate the cluster boundaries.” Targets that were not included in the analysis packets are indicated by truncated cluster diagrams. * Because two different technologies were used to digitize the static and dynamictargets, the scale of AS isnot accurate between staticand dynamictargets. This scale factor does not affect the relative clustering and the differences will be normalized before formal analysis of the AC begins. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100160001-0 5
PhAVRRFRVRFOG RAPALA AP ARLPRINA yFa¥ifREPIRP PrOSAIROO 100160001-0 2 2 > p < re 3 : oO # ia) Figure 2. Cluster Diagram for Dynamic Targets 6.2.2.2 Experiments Testing AC/Target Feature Correlations Eight individuals will participate in an experiment that is scheduled to begin in early February. Each receiver will participate in 40 trials that will be counter-balanced between sender and no sender condi- tions and static and dynamic targets. The trials will be conducted remotely and will be unmonitored. The AC responses will be sent by facsimile to the principal investigator, and will be analyzed using the standard rank-order technique. 6.2.2.3 Geomagnetic Activity Correlations to AC Background. Persinger, Tart, Krippner, and others have reported an association between AC perfor- mance and indices of geomagnetic field (GMF) fluctuations. This work has shown that both anecdotal reports of spontaneous AC, as well as higher-scoring laboratory AC trials, tend to occur at times of rela- tively low GMF activity. The published evidence is not entirely compelling. The anecdotal AC data are contaminated to an unknown extent with confounding factors of reporting bias, timing errors, and the difficulty of establishing the veracity of such reports post hoc. The retrospective studies of laboratory AC data, while largely free of these problems, have demonstrated only small correlations to GMF in- dices. There is, however, increasing interest in the possibility of biological effects of small amplitude magnetic field variations. Recent work has shown that melatonin and serotinin levels are modulated by GMF activity both in vivo and in vitro. Other research is exploring the physics of possible mechanisms whereby low-amplitude magnetic field variations could interact with cells. Anomalous Cognition. To investigate the relationship between scores in laboratory AC experiments and GMF fluctuations, we are combining various experimental databases. Currently, we have as- sembled a database of approximately 1000 free-response AC trials from several laboratories. There is a very small (i.e., 9 = —0.05, p < 0.09) correlation between trial scores and GMF fluctuations in the ex- Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100160001-0 7
Phetuniene ga hresenecR MIG AFys fel Anker PResoi89R003100160001-0 pected direction in this database. The correlation, however, is much larger (i.e., @ = —0.40) in those experiments where significant AC was demonstrated. We hope to extend the free response database to include more trials from SRI International’s extensive collection of trials where significant AC was ex- hibited. We will complete a meta-analysis of all this material. Epilepsy. We may discover more about the impact of GMF fluctuations on AC performance by research on other behaviors that are modulated by very low frequency magnetic fields. Some literature suggests a connection between idopathic and epileptic seizures and GMF fluctuations. Currently, we are assem- bling a database of approximately 4000 seizures and seizure-related mortalities. Preliminary analysis of a subset of this database suggests that both seizures and mortalities associated with seizures are weakly correlated with elevated GMF noise levels. GMF noise might be depressing the melatonin level, result- ing in an increased probability of seizure. We will examine this database with respect to recordings of precise power levels in the ULF/ELF spectrum to clarify what region of the EM spectrum is responsible for the effect. 6.2.2.4 AC Correlations Literature Search Mr. Charles Honorton of the Psychophysical Research Laboratories (PRL) has been subcontracted to conduct a detailed key-word parapsychology literature search for potential correlations of AC perfor- mance and external variables (e.g., personality, IQ), and to perform meta-analyses where appropriate. The meta-analyses potion of this task has begun. 6.2.3 Theoretical Issues 6.2.3.1 Assessment of Theoretical Constructs Currently, one senior research physicist has been identified who is anxious to explore thermodynamic and general relativistic models to formulate hypotheses for the mechanism of AC. 6.2.3.2 Targeting As part of the subcontract, the Psychophysical Research Laboratories are nearing completion of a de- tailed design to explore the potential of a beacon as a targeting mechanism. In addition, the experi- ment, which is described in Section 6.2.2.2 above, also explores the role of a sender in AC experiments. 6.2.3.3 Communication We have designed a computer-based binary AC experiment that uses sequential analysis to enhance AC effects. The details of the experimental design can be found in our technical protocol, which is under review by the SOC.* Sequential analysis will improve a sample hit rate from 60 to 85%. We show in the technical protocol that this enhancement is 21% better than a one-in-three majority vote procedure. We expect to begin the experiment in early March 1992. 6.2.4 Altered States 6.2.4.1 Lucid Dreaming The Lucidity Institute has been subcontracted to conduct a pilot experiment to study AC in lucid dreams. The details of the experimental design can be found in our technical protocol, which is under review by the SOC.5 Experienced receivers and lucid dreamers will individually be given carefully double wrapped and Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100160001-0 8
PhOppneatest Fyicdt lesser 20 QAO NAS y SHAHROMAGRAROFP R003 100160001 -0 . sealed targets drawn randomly from our standard set of National Geographic magazine photographs. With the aid of a DreamLight, a device to help induce a lucid dream, the experimental task is to: ® become lucid in a dream ® open the sealed envelope (i.e., while still dreaming) ® study its content @ wake up and record the dream impressions. Analysis of the responses will follow the standard protocol for rank order judging. As an introduction to lucid dreaming, the Lucidity Institute has conducted a three-day workshop for the participants in the experiment. We expect to begin experimental trials by March 1992. 6.2.5 Energetics 6.2.5.1 Anomalous Perturbation Protocol There has been no action on this item during the reporting period. 6.3 Applied Research 6.3.1 MEG Developments 6.3.1.1 Identification Preliminary analysis of responses to direct light stimuli shows a qualitative correspondence with native AC ability. Other factors, such as motivation or ambition, may also play an important role in identifying high-quality receivers. If the preliminary results from the MEG phase-shift measurements are true, then that variable may be a more reliable indicator of native AC ability. 6.3.2 Correlations/Pattern Analysis 6.3.2.1 Correlations There has been no action on this item during the reporting period. 6.3.2.2 Beacon Conditions PRL has been subcontracted to conduct a test of the sender/no sender condition in Ganzfeld experi- ments. A protocol is currently being prepared for review by the SOC, and the laboratory is nearing completion for the experiment. Computer equipment is in place and computer programs, which are to be used in the experiment, were demonstrated to a visiting SAIC employee in September 1991. 6.3.3 Training 6.3.3.1 Empirical Training Analysis An in-depth analysis of one in-use training procedure has been initiated by Professor Daryl Bem, of the psychology department of Cornell University. Analysis has not yet been completed. 6.3.3.2 Potential New Methods There has been no action on this item during the reporting period. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100160001-0 9
Phapprerenidgicdk Bless 20 AAW AA ysSTAAHREA RO PSAIRO03 100160001-0 6.3.4 Applications 6.3.4.1 New Approaches We were asked to use AC search techniques to locate a missing student pilot. While two receivers sug- gested similar locations, the pilot was eventually found in a different location than suggested by our receivers. 6.3.4.2 Communications We have developed a technical protocol, which is currently under review by the SOC, that applies stan- dard Bose-Chaudhuri-Hocquenghem (BCH) codes to AC analysis.6 The BCH code that was selected includes two message bits and three check bits and will correct for all single errors and some double errors. Table 3 shows AC-target attributes whose presence corresponds to a binary one and whose absence cor- responds to a binary zero. We have constructed ten target packs of four targets, each according to the following binary words: 00000, 0110, 10101, 11011. For example, a target in pack eight that corresponds to 11011 would only include people, natural setting with vegetation, and buildings. A jungle village scene would be an example of an appropriate photograph. Table 3. Attributes for Ten Target Packs ne Square/ Mountains/ ‘ Water Nanneains! Buildings Rural Road/Bridge For each trial, the protocol calls for one randomly selected target to be available for one week. During that time, six receivers will individually record their impressions of the intended target and send their responses by facsimile to the principal investigator. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100160001-0 10
PhépprevietobtraRe taeer of PRADA skal Ariket Ihe ROAdAIRO03100160001-0 The analysis will proceed in three steps: (1) An SAIC employee, not otherwise associated with the experiment, will conduct a rank order analy- sis against the remaining targets in the selected pack. (2) From the response, the SAIC analyst will answer an appropriate set of yes/no questions that are keyed to the target pack. (3) The receivers will also be asked to answer an appropriate set of yes/no questions that are keyed to the target pack. The rank order technique will be used to assess the magnitude of the AC in the study, and the binary answers will be use to assess the enhancement resulting from the BCH code. 6.3.4.3 Enhancement There has been no action on this item during the reporting period. 6.3.4.4 Analysis There has been no action on this item during the reporting period. 6.4 Research Methodology 6.4.1 Scientific Oversight Committee The Scientific Oversight Committee (SOC) consists of five members drawn from academia. The mem- bership includes a physicist, an astronomer, a psychologist, a statistician, and a neuroscientist. All of the protocols shown in the References Section are either under review or have been approved by the SOC. We anticipate that the first meeting of the SOC will be during the second week of J uly 1992. 6.4.2 Institutional Review Board The Institutional Review Board (IRB) consists of seven members. They include a biostatistician, a Buddhist priest, a neuropsychiatrist, an ear-nose-and-throat medical doctor, a neuroscientist, a lawyer, and a retired military medical officer. The human-use portions of all of the protocols shown in the Ref- erences Section have been approved by the IRB. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100160001-0 11
Approve . Phen oe ro Nlcar REST aries: (rer ROGd70789R003100160001-0 REFERENCES — 1. E.C. May and W.L. W. Luke, “Technical Protocol for the MEG Investigation,” Scientific Oversight Protocol, Science Applications International Corporation, Menlo Park, CA (August 1991). 2. J, Cohen, Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences (rev. ed.), Academic Press, New York (1977). 3, E. C. May and N. D. Lantz, “Target and Sender Dependencies in Anomalous Cognition,” Scientific Oversight Protocol, Science Applications International Corporation, (December 1991). Menlo Park, CA 4, E. C. May, “Enhancing Anomalous Cognition of Binary Targets,” Scientific Oversight Protocol, Science Applications International Corporation, Menlo Park, CA (December 1991). 5. E.C. May and S. LaBerge, “Anomalous Cognition in Lucid Dreams,” Scientific Oversight Protocol, Science Applications International Corporation, Menlo Park, CA (December 1991). 6. W.L. W. Luke and E. C. May, “Enhancing Detection of AC with Binary Coding,” Scientific Oversight Protocol, Science Applications International Corporation, Menlo Park, CA (December 1991). Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100160001-0 13