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.
A Strategy For The Evaluation
of
Paranormal
Phenomena
There
seems
to be
a small but constant momentum within
the Agency for investigation of paranormal phenomena including
\
such things
as Extra Sensory Perception,
Astral Projection
and Radionics.
Since
this momentum appears
to have been
continuous
in the past,
it
seems
reasonable
to assume
that
it will continue
in the future.
Since
claims of paranormal
phenomena immediately generate opposing camps
of believers
and
non-believers,
any instigation of research
into these
areas
immediately engenders
debates,
meetings,
discussions,
and
memoranda.
All of these activities
consume man-power resources
and any investigation will usually
involve
the commitment
of
fiscal
resources.
For
this
reason,
this paper
is‘ presented
to propose
some guidelines
for
a strategy
to allow for
the
appraisal
of
the appropriateness
of resource dedication
to
whatever paranormal phenomena may be proposed in the
future.
One of the driving forces
for any proposed program
in
paranormal phenomena
is
always
the carrot held out by pro-
ponents
that
the possession of such powers would have great
utility to the intelligence community.
If we assume that
such powers
are
indeed real
and
can be harnessed for use by
the Agency or
the
Intelligence
Community,
clearly there
can
be no argument with purported utility .
Therefore,
debate
on
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h an
issue
is
inappropriate.
The RDP96-00787RQO0
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focus
for
200090015-7
the debate
should be on
the validity of the claims made by proponents
of the paranormal phenomena.
Another item which should be disposed quickly without
major debate
is
that of the ability of
the Agency
to use
something that
it does not understand.
Once again
the
argu-
ments
are really very simple.
Obviously we
can use something
that we
do not understand.
Cave men used
fire
to cook food
and warm caves
for many years before
the
thermodynamics
and
chemical kinetics
of combustion were
suspected,
known,
or
understood.
Even today man uses
gravity
for many purposes,
although there
is
still significant debate
in
the
scientific
community
as
to what causes
gravitational
attraction.
However,
when
a phenomenon
is not understood,
it must be
a reliable
phenomenon
to be
trusted.
The credibility
of gravity
is
very,
very high even though the theoretical underpinnings
for
gravitational
attraction are not
solid.
The reason
for
this
status
is
that human history has
a great preponderence
of
observations
in favor of objects
falling
toward the Earth
and
not away from
the
Earth.
Paranormal phenomena which are not
understood
(or which cannot be
explained)
must achieve
a
similar level
of reliability
to attain
the
same
level
of
credibility
as
a phenomenon
such
as
gravity.
Given that
there will be
a proposal
for the Agency
to
investigate
some
form of paranormal
research
in
the
future,
the following
is presented
as
a suggested strategy
for deciding
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.
must fall
on
the proponents
to convince management
and technical
personnel
in
the Agency that,
indeed,
such research
is
appro-
priate and there
is
some plausible justification for entering
into
the expenditure of public monies
toward
this
end.
It
is
the personal opinion of the author
that
the more
exotic the claims made
for
any paranormal discipline
that
the
more definitive should be
the proofs
and evidences presented
to support
the proposition for research
into
that
area.
^•Additionally ,
it
is mandatory
t o require
that
a technical
wT
d.
.
^
L^ ai>§ibili_ty..to
explain
all phenomena associated with
the body
of
AT
'
~
jr*''
evidence
shall
.not_.be..... taken
as proof _pos
i
t ive
that
there
is
validity
to
the phenomena.
It does not
seem reasonable
to
/aa(
*&
allow that —e
Positive presence _of
_a
.p aranormal
phenomena be
•/t^^
P roV i
d
gjlJ3X_tjie._a .hs£nc e
,of
a firmly founded technical
explana-
/?ti_on for every detail.
•xAS
Assuming
that we have reached
a situation where
some
level
of investigation
into paranormal phenomena
is
considered
appropriate
it
is
intended
to now
set
forth some guidelines
for validation of the claims,
concepts,
theoretical under-
pinnings
for such phenomena.
One criteria which should be
applied
is
the concept
of deniability.
One
of
the foundations
of the scientific method
is
that
if one
asserts
a false
hypothesis,
then
a false result will
emerge from an experiment
to test
the hypothesis.
This criterion of deniability should
be applicable
to experimental designs which attempt
to explain
the paranormal.
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Another criterion for validation of
a paranormal
yptdsfi*?0*'
menon
should he
the nronertv of renlirstinn
for
that
A
phenomenon should be
the property of replication
for
that
A -mG-w*-
phenomenon.
It
is
reasonable
to
assert
that
if such
a phenomenon
is real,
then more
than one independent observer/practioner
can obtain
the
same results under
the
same
conditions.
This
criterion has
served the scientific community very well
for
several centuries;
and,
indeed,
does not appear
to be
so
unreasonable
as
to have
it dismissed from consideration
of
paranormal research.
A third criteria
for such validation investigations
should be
the verifiability of
the
experimental
data.
By
verifiability
it
is meant
that
the proponents
and opponents
of the phenomenon
in question should
be
able
to agree
on
the
criteria which will substantiate
or deny
the existence
of
the
phenomenon.
Such
a criterion will
tend
to remove validation
experimentation
from
a situation whereby
a negative
or positive
result can be refuted by
the various parties
to
the
debate.
Finally,
any validation experimentation must be
set
up
in such
a way
. as
to avoid
the
situation
in which
the opponents
to
a paranormal phenomenon
are required
to prove
that
it
does
not
exist.
The difficulty
in proving
a negative
assertion,
is
so severe
that such experimentation and argument can go
on
forever.
Since
it was
stated
that
the burden
of proof should
be on the proponent
to
initiate paranormal
research,
this
concept must be carried forward
to
any validation experiments
to assure
that any experiments
are designed
to prove
the
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existence
of
a phenomenon by positive observable details.
As
a short example
to
illustrate
the
thinking
that went
into much of the
above recommendations,
the author doubts
seriously that many scientists would argue with
the fact
that
there may exist
a sense
in
the human body which has* not yet
been discovered.
They may,
however,
stop
short
of agreement
if they were
then asked to believe that
this
extra
sense
is
one that cannot be measured,
and therefore,
it
is
for that
reason that
it has
escaped detection
(and will
of course always
escape detection)
.
Skepticism about
things
like Extra Sensory
Perception
or abnormal sensitivities
of individuals
to various
stimuli
do not arise
from
a preconceived notion
that
it
is
impossible
for such phenomena
to exist;
rather,
it
is
skepticism
which arises
from an explanation which demands
that
an
in-
vestigator believe
in
the existence
of such data because
there
is no other explanation immediately available.
It
is hoped that
this
short statement
concerning para-
normal research will
stimulate
sufficient discussion and
dialogue
to permit
a reasonable and programmed response
to
a
future assertion
for Agency involvement
in paranormal
research.
The author makes no claim that
the suggestions
in
this paper
for guidelines
or approaches
to
this problem are
all
inclusive.
If, however,
they serve
to generate
such
all
inclusive
and
appropriate guidelines
then this paper will de deemed success-
ful
in the mind of the author.
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