Technical Aspposel For Release JONCALAS SI4-HEB26-00789R003100200001-5 (U) We propose to administer the California Q-Set version of the Q-Sort to approximately 25 people, including individuals who are known to be highly talented in AC, individuals who are known not to be talented in AC, and individuals with unknown AC skill. All Q-Sort data will be entered into a cumula- tive database where it will be available for analysis. A cluster diagram similar to the one in Figure 1 will be used to display the results. If the AC profile continues to appear in a different cluster than receivers who have little AC talent, then we will recommend that a formal experiment be conducted to test the AC abilities of those individuals whose profiles were clustered with the AC profile. 1.3 Theoretical Issues (SOW 6.1.3) (U) (U) Theoretical issues include heuristic and fundamental modeling from physics, physiology, and psychology used to systematize what is known about AMP. In addition, experiments may be conducted that address specific constructs that are basic to the various models. 1.3.1 Anomalous Perturbation (SOW 6.1.3.1-3) (U) (U) In conjunction with the sponsor, we propose to design a pilot experiment protocol for an anoma- lous perturbation (AP) experiment, which will be conducted at a facility specified by the sponsor. SAIC will provide two AP high-talent specialists to participate in that study. Their participation will not ex- ceed more than two three-day visits to the sponsor-designated laboratory. Should the pilot experiment succeed, then we will explore the role of a variety of variables such as shielding and distance. 1.3.2 Theoretical Models (SOW 6.1.3.4-5) (U) (U) The data from AMP experiments have begun to suggest theoretical approaches toward under- standing the underlying principles for the phenomena. Most of the previous modeling has been quan- tum mechanical,*!22 metaphoric,”3 or behavioral2* and generally has not led to testable hypotheses. One heuristic model does suggest experiments, but it does not provide fundamental insight into the mechanisms of AC.25 We propose to explore a variety of different theoretical approaches that are ei- ther dictated by the strength of the AC data or strongly suggested by fundamental concepts. (U) Specifically, we propose to examine in detail those theoretical approaches, from among the follow- ing, that are most likely to provide testable hypotheses (i.e., new protocols) and lead us toward a theoretical understanding of the physics of AC: (U) The Einstein, Poldasky, Rosen (EPR) Paradox. The paradox suggests possible information transport during the collapse of a wave function. The paradox arises naturally when considering two-particle correla- tions and the effect of measuring the state of one particle, which gives rise to unambiguous knowledge of the state of the correlated particle even though they may outside each others light cones. While no one any longer questions the validity of the predictions of quantum mechanics for correlated systems, the fact of that validity has caused a philosophical revolution. There is no underlying reality—no absolute reality. There is only reality as defined by measurements made by an observer. This approach is suggested because AC ex- periments appear to show “correlation” of separated events. While it is doubtful that AC is quantum me- chanical, nonetheless the EPR formalism might provide conceptual insight into possible AC mechanisms. (U) Thermodynamic Entropy. For nearly two hundred years scientists have taken the position that the entropy of a closed system can never decrease with time and that, on the scale of the universe, entropy always increases with increasing time. Recently however, Steven Hawking has raised the possibility that macroscopic time or psychological time, the time that we perceive, is actually determined by the change of entropy.”6 The study of classical thermodynamic entropy appears likely to be the most productive Approved For Release 2D0@/L43 SGA EDP 96-00789R003100200001-5 10
Technical Rsapesal For Release AGALAS SIEHSBo6-00789R003100200001-5 based upon the results of a recent Shannon entropy experiment2’ and on the extensive evidence for so-called precognition—AC of targets before they have been determined.28 (U) General Relativity. Matt Visser’s paper on traversable wormholes suggests that it is physically pos- sible to transport energy (and, therefore, information) can transfer between remote space-time points without traversing the classical distance between the space-time events.29 General Relativity, there- fore, is a candidate for a theoretical basis for AC. (U) Tachyons, It is possible to describe mathematically a fully consistent universe in which everything moves faster than the speed of light. The particles inhabiting such a universe are named tachyons while, in contrast, the particles with which we are familiar are named tardyons. The important fact is that nei- ther particle can ever travel at the speed of light. Photons, of course, are common to both universes. Moreover, this is a non-quantum mechanical description. Theoretical understanding of tachyons may assist in defining an energy transfer mechanism for AC. (U) Physical Interpretation of Potentials. Classical mechanics and, for the most part, quantum mechanics have treated potentials as convenient mathematical descriptions for which there was no physical instantia- tion. Recent experiments have shown, however, that a potential can affect a particle even when there is no corresponding force present. If potentials could be made to propagate, then they could be candidates for an energy transfer mechanism for AC. (U) All theoretical approaches will be constrained to provide testable hypotheses. We suspect that if a reasonable theoretical model can be developed, that it will entail physics mechanisms that can be tested by traditional experimentation. 1.3.3 Change of Shannon Entropy: An Intrinsic Target Property (SOW 6.1.3.6) (U) (U) Most previous research has considered AC from a “systems” perspective in that the target and receiver are thought of as a single AC unit.203! This is not particularly productive if we are search- ing for intrinsic properties of target systems to guide target selection. An intrinsic target property is one that is inherently tied to the target (e.g., size, distance from the receiver, activity, entropy) and devoid of any external interpretation. Interpretations, such as emotional impact, can be consid- ered as extrinsic properties of the target or, more precisely, intrinsic properties of the receiver. Extrinsic target properties are critical when AC is viewed from a systems point of view; however, if these properties can be controlled in experiments, then it is possible to examine intrinsic target properties with little confounding interference from the extrinsic ones. (U) As an aid in understanding extrinsic noise properties of targets, we define target pool bandwidth as a qualitative indicator of the number of disparate target elements in the pool. Clips from video movies represent a large-bandwidth pool; such disparate scenarios as Superman in space, a nature segment on the Grand Canyon, and a James Bond thriller can be included in the same target pool. Conversely, the well-known Zener cards represent a vary narrow target bandwidth. Our collection of National Geographic magazine photographs represent an intermediate bandwith; the size and general content of the material is roughly the same throughout this pool. (U) We hypothesize that the bandwidth of the target pool is a source of intrinsic noise in the receiver. We assume that the information that is gained by AC is small compared to other sensory mechanisms, and the primary mental task for a receiver is to discriminate the AC data from internally generated, Approved For Releas@ JiDGbAS S UFAERDP96-00789R003100200001-5 11
Technical Repposell For ReleasSBCGRER/ NDRORI-00789R003100200001-5 target-unrelated information. For large bandwidth target pools that may contain almost anything, a receiver is unable to censor his/her internal experience. Thus, target-related and target-unrelated ma- terial are equally reported; therefore, large bandwith pools are extrinsically noisy. Small bandwith pools are also extrinsically noisy but for a different reason. If a receiver is cognizant of all of a limited set of target elements (e.g. Zener cards), then he/she has an internal discrimination problem. All target possibilities are experienced with equal intensity because of knowledge about the pool and vivid short- term memory. Assuming there is weak AC information about the specific target, then target-extrinsic noise is generated because of the very low signal-to-noise ratio. (U) By developing an appropriate target pool, which possess an intermediate bandwidth, we may be able to control for various target-extrinsic noise sources and, therefore, focus upon intrinsic target properties. If the change in Shannon entropy is an intrinsic target property, then we would expect that AC quality for dynamic targets should be higher than the quality from static targets. In the previous program we observed a signifi- cant correlation between AC quality and entropy within the static target pool, but we did not obtain signifi- cant evidence for AC within the dynamic pool, and thus were not able to determine entropy correlations within that pool. We speculate that the lack of significant AC in the dynamic pool might be due to band- width considerations. We propose to improve upon this previous study. Specifically, © We will develop a new target pool of static and dynamic targets that possess an “intermediate” bandwidth similar to our existing photographs from National Geographic magazine. Our approach will be to develop dynamic segments that are similar in quality to the existing static pool, and select frames from that dy- namic set to construct a new static pool. This will assure that the bandwidh of the two target types (i.e., static and dynamic) are similar. The static and dynamic Shannon entropy will be calculated as described in the technical protocol for the earlier experiment.32 @ We will conduct each AC trial at our Menlo Park facility, and each trial will be monitored. This is in contrast with our earlier experiment during which receivers were unmonitored. @ We will provide immediate and full color feedback at the end of each trial. This is in contrast with our earlier experiment during which feedback was significantly delayed. (U) With these improvements, we plan to conduct an experiment to test the specific hypothesis that the quality of AC linearly depends upon the intrinsic target property, the change of Shannon entropy. (U) We will employ approximately five receivers who will contribute a total of 20 trials each (i.e., 10 trials with dynamic and static targets, respectively). (S/NF) A successful outcome of this experiment will determine, with a high degree of confidence, if the change of Shannon entropy qualifies as an intrinsic target property. If it qualifies, then we will be able to improve target selection significantly for laboratory experiments and intelligence applications. 1.4 Applied Research (SOW 6.2) (U) (U) Applied research of AMP is defined as that activity that is primarily designed to improve the quality of experimental results. 1.4.1 Database (SOW 6.2.1) (U) (S/NF) As an aid to determining the range and limits of AMP for applications, we propose to construct an on-line database that records a number of physical, psychological, and environmental variables for each AMP trial. Examples of physical variables include receiver-target distance and changes in thermo- dynamic and/or Shannon entropy of the target system. Similarly, psychological and environmental vari- Approved For ReleaS#E2 Qo EiT/NG RG Ab6-00789R003100200001-5 12
Technical Rppposall For ReleasGBGRE PR NOPGRN-00789R003100200001-5 ables include scores from the Q-sort personality test, and the Ap geomagnetic index, respectively. SAIC routinely enters many experiment variables into an existing database, but we propose to update the da- tabase with variables that are more useful in intelligence applications. In addition, the protocol and outcome of each trial will be coded into the database. (S/NF) Once this database contains sufficient numbers of laboratory and intelligence: experiments, then relatively simple queries may reveal ranges or limits to specific variables. We propose to perform such queries each time sufficient new data are added to the database. 1.4.2 Quantitative Assessment (SOW 6.2.2) (U) (U) It is now clear that free response AC experiments can generate much larger effects than forced choice protocols. However, the problem of determining the quantity and accuracy of information in free response experiments has not been satisfactorily resolved. Such experiments typically generate both textual and visu- al information. This information has previously been assessed by ranking and descriptor set methods. Both methods have disadvantages: ranking can greatly underestimate statistical significance, while descriptor- based methods suffer from uncertainty as to how to define the conceptual categories used to distinguish target and response elements. The research described below aims to improve these assessment methods. 1.4.2.1 Neural Networks (U) (U) Neural networks have been widely applied to image and pattern recognition problems. However, they have not been applied to the problem of assessing free response AC data. SAIC will explore the application of neural networks to the existing fuzzy set assessment method. Neural networks will be trained on fuzzy set encodings of stimulus-response pairs from AC trials by individual subjects. If con- sistent patterns between receivers’ responses and their intended targets exist, then neural networks can be trained to recognize them. The trained networks can be used to assess additional AC data sets and the results can be cross validated against existing fuzzy set scoring and ranking methods. Because neu- ral network methods can discriminate complex mappings in the presence of noise, the method may yield more precise estimates of target-response correlation than the current fuzzy set descriptor system. 1.4.2.2 Image Decomposition (U) (U) Numerous techniques have been developed for image compression. While most of these algo- rithms compress images by exploiting redundancy in the pixel array, some recent techniques take a dif- ferent approach based upon image decomposition.*? This “fractal image compression” method relies on partitioning images into subsets that can be used to reconstruct the original by recursively applying affine transformations to the subsets. When applied to conventional image compression, the technique relies on a judicious choice of the original partitioning. It may hold particular promise for assessing AC responses because such responses seem to be characterized by a limited set of formal elements, which give a natural set of basis elements or partitions. We propose to explore the fractal image analysis of AC ~ Le responses to verify that such responses can be characterized by a relatively small set of underlying forms. ope These will be used as the basis set for the partitioning of the target material used in the AC experiments. ~ Judging schemes based upon these forms can then be investigated. A further refinement will involve ~~searching for a set +t Of Optimal ‘basis asis elements for the partitioning of targets and responses using an effi- cient search method such as a genetic algorithm. The goal will be to develop an analysis method that avoids the arbitrariness associated with descriptor-based methods, while capturing much of the formal richness of information seen in superior AC performance. Approved For ReleaSB@QRET/NOPRGAAGG-00789R003100200001-5 13