Approved For Release 20abiR E:T rpp9s-00788R001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN II INTRODUCTION (U) A. (U) General (S/NF/CL-3) A continuing requirement in military operations is determining the location of tactical and strategic military targets of interest, whose positions are not known or are known only approximately. Examples range from the location of (1) a “bug” in a secure facility, (2) a command post in a tactical situation or (3) a submarine in a strategic problem. (S/NF/CL-3) A potential match to the above requirement is a claimed ability in the broad field of psychoenergetic functioning; namely, the ability to search for and locate water, oil, minerals, objects, individuals, sites of archaeological significance, and so forth. This ability can be contrasted to the related psychoenergetic ability “remote viewing,” in the following manner. In remote viewing, the RVer is given location information (coordinates, “beacon” agent, picture), and (RV) asked to provide data on target content (e.g., BW R&D facility); in “search,” the RVer is given information on target content, then asked to provide location data (e.g., position on a map). The two functions are thus complimentary to each other. (U) The ability to locate targets is most often referred to as “dowsing” in the Western literature, and “biophysical effect (BPE)” in the Soviet/East Bloc literature. In this report, we shall refer to such techniques simply as “search.” Although much of the literature is anecdotal,* attempts to quantify the ability and to determine its mechanisms have been pursued.t *(U) For the most comprehensive and authoritative survey of the claims for dowsing, see Christopher Bird, The Divining Hand, E. P. Dutton, New York, NY (1979). T(U) See, for example, papers published by Z. V. Harvalik, beginning 1970, in The American Dowser, the journal of the American Society of Dowsers, (Harvalik is the ex—director of the basic research group of the U.S. Army Engineering Laboratories, Fort Belvoir, VA.) —~Q- SECRET CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For Release 29ECR FCPA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN (S/NF/CL-3) The goal of the present effort is to research the literature, then perform laboratory experimentation to determine whether, and to what degree, such functioning is a viable candidate for application to intelligencecollection tasks. This includes determining the best methods and efficiencies of various search techniques, and the appropriate statistical analyses for evaluating results. B. (U) Search Categories (S/NF/CL-3) Search tasks fall into two broad categories of effort--continuum and discrete. In the “continuum” search category, a target of interest is typically to be located on a continuum area map, such as a topographical map or navigational chart (e.g., for a tank or submarine, respectively). For this category, the target/response distances and circular error probabilities (CEPs) constitute the statistics of interest in evaluation. (S/NF/CL-3) In the “discrete” search category, a target of interest is associated with a discrete number of possibilities (for example, the location of a missile in one of K silos, or the location of an agent in one of K cities). For this category, the appropriate statistic of interest in the evaluation of a series of location attempts is a comparison against the simple binomial statistic of the probability of obtaining an observed R hits in N trials, by chance. -3- ENTER LANE-3/NOFOR Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA- RDP96- 00788R001800260001-5
Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : ccED UNCLASSIFIED III METHOD OF APPROACH (U) A. (U) Continuum Search--Statistical Approach (U) The first-order requirement in carrying out a continuum-search effort is to determine an appropriate method of evaluation. The approach chosen here is a modification of a procedure developed by Dean Radin at Bell Laboratories for evaluating geometric—distance scores in a perceptual task.* In this approach, one begins by assuming that the target area of interest is in the form of a square (a useful, but not necessary, requirement). A grid system is then laid down over the Square in the form of ann x n matrix (20 x 20, say), to yield n? separate grid elements (400 for a 20 x 20 grid, for example). Using this grid as an approximation to a continuum, one can then calculate exactly the a priori chance distribution that any given search response would lie at any given distance from a particular target location. From this, an evaluation can be made on the quality of response (see Figure 1). (U) In the 20.x 20 case, for a target square not on the edge, there is one chance in 400 of the searcher landing directly on the target square by chance, four chances in 400 of being one unit away (above, below, and to the sides), four chances of being V2 units away, and so forth. Counting out from any particular target square, the inhibition of responses beyond the boundary of the overall Square (at certain distances in certain directions) is easily taken into account in the counting process. Thus, an exact calculation can be made on the basis of straightforward counting (taking into account edge effects) for the probabilities of all possible target/response pair distances. One result of these calculations for the 20 x 20 case (taken as standard) is Table 1, in which the mean distance from each given target square to all possible response squares in the grid is displayed. As a reference, the grand mean chance expectation (MCE) target response pair distance in the 20 x 20 grid is 10.41 units. “(U) Radin, D., “Evaluating Geometric Distance Scores in a Perceptual Task,” Research in Parapsychology 1981, pp. 163-164, Scarecrow Press, Inc., Metuchen, NJ (1982). -4- UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For 'CINCLA SSIFIE! 6-00788R001800260001-5 Prob (d) UNCLASSIFIED FIGURE 1 (U) SEARCH MATRIX (U) Thus, if the search area of interest is 20 km xX 20 km, the MCE distance for random attempts to locate a random target is 10.41 km. B. (U) Discrete Search—-Statistical Approach (U) In the discrete search case (one choice from among K possibilities), the appropriate evaluation statistic is the cumulative binomial distribution. The parameters are as follows. (U) We define a trial as a single attempt to pinpoint a target as being at one of K possible target locations. Let p = 1/K be the probability of a chance hit in the location attempt in a single trial, and q = 1 — p be the probability of a chance failure in a single trial. -5- UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
Approved For "ONCLA SSiFIED 800260001-5 _Table 1 (U) TABLE OF MEAN DISTANCES (Beginning Row 1, left to right, square (1,1), (1,2)..., through upper left-hand quadrant of 20 x 20 matrix) .65585, 14. .48960, .20876, 11. .69934, .04415, 13. 83167, .50216, 11. .97406, .48960, 12. . 23547, .86094, 10. 31541, -99671, 12. . 70606, -29114, 9. .72981, .56888, 11. 24699, .79695, 9, .22171, .20876, 11. .86094, .38139, 9. .79433, .91840, 11. .54992, .04665, 8. .45003, 69934, 10. .31541, 79433, 8. .19049. .55270, 10. .15851, .62554, 8. .O1685, .47920, 10. .07989, .54097, 8. .92986, 8. 9. 8. 9. 8. 9. 7. 9. 7. 8. 7. SNONVO OW DOOD 10,41513 Grand Mean UNCLASSIFIED (U) In a series of location attempts, the important statistic is the probability of obtaining at least R hits in N trials, by chance, because this distribution establishes the basis against which the efficiency of the search method must be compared. This statistic is given exactly by the cumulative binomial (Bernoulli) distribution. -~6- UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5