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ABSTRACT
In FY 1986, SRI International awarded a subcontract to the College of Marine Studies of
the University of Delaware to conduct remote action (RA) experiments using marine algae as
target elements.
Protocols were developed during that year that would enable SRI to test, with a
living system, the Intuitive Data Sorting model.
During FY 1987,
significant improvement was
made to stabilize the data so that standard analysis techniques
(e.g., ANOVA) might be used.
While
much
progress
was
made
toward
that
end,
significant
autocorrelations
persist.
Nonetheless,
an attempt was made
to generate
successful RA.
SRI
analyzed data
for
four
participants and found no statistical evidence of RA.
ii
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT
ii
LIST OF FIGURES
iv
I
INTRODUCTION
II
REVIEW OF THE UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE REMOTE
ACTION PROJECT
A.
Toward Increased Data Stability
B.
Protocol for Data Collection and Analysis
C.
Results
D.
Discussion
REFERENCES
APPENDIX
A-l
iii
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LIST OF FIGURES
1.
Results of the IDS and Monte Carlo Calculations
2.
Post Session Control Velocity Spectrum—Operator 48
3.
Post Session Control Velocity Data—Operator 48
iv
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I INTRODUCTION
For a number of years, Dr. C. M. Pleass of the College of Marine Studies at the University
of Delaware, has been constructing a remote action (RA) experiment using various species of
marine algae as targets.
In these types of experiments, RA participants attempt to change the
swimming velocities of single algae
cells during effort periods as compared to control periods.
Encouraged
by
a
paper
presented
at
an
annual
meeting
of
the
Parapsychological
Association,
1 * SRI International awarded a two-year contract to the University of Delaware to
satisfy Objective E, Task
1 of the FY 1986 statement of work.
For the
first year, the task was to
stabilize the equipment and protocol, while the task for the second year was to collect RA data.
This report describes SRI's role in that effort and summarizes the work done by Dr.
Pleass.
(The University of Delaware's draft final report
is included, verbatim,
in the Appendix.)
* References may be found at the end of this report,
t This report constitutes the deliverable for Ojective E, Task
1.
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II REVIEW OF THE UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE
REMOTE ACTION PROJECT
In the past, the putative RA data from the College of Marine Studies of the University of
Delaware, have been criticized for the statistical methods that were employed. The cell velocity,
as a function of time, exhibited an unknown mixture of biological and environmental correlated
responses
(i.e., the data points were not statistically independent).
In a report included in SRI's
FY 1986 interim report on this experiment, 2 a significant autocorrelation was observed, yet there
was no modification of the statistical analysis to account for the correlation.
(The complete FY
1986 results can be found in Reference
2.)
During the
first few months of FY 1987, the University of Delaware moved the project to
new and better
facilities.
The move delayed our joint FY 1987 project; however,
as
is shown
below,
a major improvement of data
stability was realized.
Initially, the experimental setup in the new location was identical to the old, but with the
following improvements:
•
The floor of the new laboratory is a 3-foot thick concrete slab.
This improved
the physical isolation of the apparatus.
•
The apparatus was
installed
in an
electrically isolated and sound attenuated
room.
•
It was now possible to collect data for 24-hour periods.
SRI personnel inspected the new facilities and found them to be significantly improved.
What
follows
is a description of the FY 1987
activity.
A.
Toward Increased Data Stability
Baseline velocity data were collected over 24 hours for fifteen 24-hour periods.
It was
clear (see Figure 2 in the Appendix) that the
cells exhibited erratic behavior during the “day”
(0800 to 1700) but were quiescent between 0000 and 0800.
This quiescent period suggested that
the organisms might be
sensitive to the increased electromagnetic
activity during the day and
might be less stimulated during the night.
(SRI analyzed a quiescent data set and found the data
to be normally distributed with a slight
tail favoring downward swimming.)
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A second possible contribution to the data instability was noticed.
The algae cells tended
to clump,
especially
if they had been
in the
experimental chamber
for some time.
If
this
tendency was consistent,
it would produce strong autocorrelations in the data.
The solution to the
first problem was to attempt to provide better shielding, but
it was
realized that ELF shielding was not possible.
Instead, a completely new experimental chamber
was designed.
In the old system, cells, which were drawn once per day from a biostat, constituted a fresh
experimental sample
daily.
While
it was good to have
fresh
cells,
the immediate change
in
environment led to
initial
instabilities and,
in the absence of light and nutrients, the
cells
lost
energy over time.
This trend was obvious from the
data
in that
cells showed an increasing
tendency to swim with gravity rather than against
it.
The new system uses a continuous flow design.
Fresh cells flow through an experimental
region at an orthogonal (to the measurement axis) velocity of ~150 mm/sec.
This change greatly
improved the
stability, and significantly reduced the clumping.
B.
Protocol for Data Collection and Analysis
With the increased stability,
it was decided to use two types of analysis:
(1)
Standard Analysis of Variance (ANOVA).
(2)
Data Analysis sensitive to the Intuitive Data Sorting (IDS) model.
The standard ANOVA 2 x n consists of a design where n
is the number of consecutive temporal
data samples
collected
in each
of the
effort and
control
conditions.
The IDS
analysis was
outlined earlier,2 and a complete description can be found in SRTs final report on Objective E,
Tasks 3 and
4.3
Briefly, the IDS formalism uses a simple application of the central limit theorem to show
that for mean chance expectation (MCE), the expected value of the log of the absolute value of
the detrended
velocities
is
linearly related to the
log of an
averaging length,
n.
Under RA
conditions, the relationship
is nonlinear in a dramatic way
(Figure
1).
Under IDS conditions
(i.e.,
psychoenergetically
biasing
a
sampling
distribution)
the
formalism
predicts
a
linear
relationship once again, but with increased intercepts over MCE,
The averaging length,
n,
is
defined as the number of samples of the parent velocity distribution that are averaged to form
one data point.
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SRI
conducted
extensive Monte
Carlo
calculations
to
simulate
the
experimental IDS
design.
The
results are shown in Figure
1.
The RA curve was calculated assuming a parent
^
distribution shift of 0.3a—the only free parameter. The IDS curve was calculated assuming that
the sampling distribution had an increased variance2 of 0.38.
Only 4 of the 12 generated data
points (3 for each model) are shown.
All points fell within la (the error bars) of the theoretical
curves—an expected result considering that each model has only one specified free parameter.
*
SRI proposed that 50 trials for each of three averaging lengths (5, 15, and 40) be collected
by one RA operator (blind to the averaging length).
Delaware proposed that the
actual data
collection proceed
as much
like
their “wave”
protocol as possible.
In a single trial, an operator marks a continuous, but undisplayed velocity
data
stream when he/she
feels
that RA
has
just
occurred.
This
effort period
is
followed
immediately by a control period of length n points.
This
is followed by a brief, but random,
interval before a second identical period to the above couplet
is collected as
a pseudo-effort
period.
In addition to the psychoenergetic trials, SRI requested that a “real” influence be exerted
upon the algae under the same collection format described above.
The data would be used to
*
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demonstrate that if RA behaved like a “real” influence, the IDS formalism would be capable of
describing
it;
C.
Results
Four operators produced five trials each at each of the three averaging lengths.
This raw
data and one set of “real” influence (spark stimulus) data simulated for five trials was sent to SRI
for analysis.
The “wave”
protocol used by the
the Delaware group suggested that the ANOVA be
changed to a 2 x 2n design. A separate analysis was then performed for each of the averaging
lengths.
The
first row of the ANOVA data matrix consisted of the
five-trial averages of the
velocity (detrended)
for each of n points during the effort period
(i.e., just before the operator
marks the data stream) and a second set of n control points. The second row was identical to the
first row, except the data were taken from the pseudo-effort period.
This
particular
design was
sensitive
to
the
“release-of-effort”
wave
protocol and
to
differences between the effort and pseudo-effort periods.
The ANOVA was conducted for
all
three averaging lengths for the four operators and for the spark stimulus data.
There was no
evidence even suggestive of an extra-chance anomaly.
Delaware made two attempts at simulating RA.
The
first used spark induced E&M as a
perturbing force, however, the intensity was insufficient to produce any effect.
Following an SRI
suggestion, Delaware used visible light to induce a change in swimming velocity.
SRI was unable
to confirm a stable velocity
shift in the data from this attempt as well.
D.
Discussion
Two conditions must be met before an ANOVA
is valid. The data must be approximately
normal and they must be statistically independent. ANOVA is particularly forgiving for the
first
condition, but
if a positive
serial correlation
exists,
a
significant underestimate of the residual
variance can result.4
This can result in an artifactually significant F ratio.
Figure 2 shows a typical velocity distribution with a Gaussian
fit and a Gaussian
fit with a
matched exponential
tail.
It
is clear by inspection and the value of chi-square that the
first
criterion (approximate normality)
is easily met.
The second criterion
is much more important from an ANOVA perspective.
While the
autocorrelation has improved greatly since the
earlier report,2
it nonetheless,
still represents a
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high degree of significance—especially for the early lags.
This can be seen in Figure 3 as low
frequency oscillations of the velocity envelope.
Even after the significant improvement of the
system,
some non-random component
to
the
velocity
data
remains.
Because
the
overall
ANOVA result was not significant* and the autocorrelations are
all positive, we are not required
to calculate the appropriate error residuals for our correlated data.
Velocity (micrometers/sec)
FIGURE 2
POST SESSION CONTROL VELOCITY SPECTRUM — OPERATOR 48
FIGURE 3
POST SESSION CONTROL VELOCITY DATA — OPERATOR 48
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The Delaware
efforts were quite disappointing.
SRI designed the protocol and analysis
and made numerous suggestions about improving the physical set-up.
Virtually
all the RA data
were collected in the last month of the contract, so that only 5 trials instead of the requested 5 0
were collected at each averaging length.
Second, the operators were not blind to the averaging
length; thus, even if we had observed significant evidence of an anomaly, we would be unable to
interpret
it with regard to the IDS model.
Why the RA simulations (spark data) were not significant remains a mystery.
Either the
wrong stimuli were chosen by Delaware, or the stimulus intensities were incorrect.
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REFERENCES
1.
Pleass, C. M., and Day, N. D., “Using the Doppler Effect to Study Behavioral Responses
of Motile Algae to Psi Stimulus," Proceedings of the 28th Parapsychological Association
Convention, pp. 373-406 (August 1985).
2.
May, E. C., Humphrey, B.
S., and Pleass, C. M., “Measuring Remote Action Influence
on the Vertical Component of Dunaliella Velocity," Interim Report, Objective E, Task 9,
Project 1291, SRI International, Menlo Park, California (December 1986).
3.
May,
E.
C.,
“Intuitive
Data
Sorting: An
Informational
Model
of
Psychoenergetic
Functioning,” Final Report, Objective E, Tasks 3 and 4, Project 1291, SRI International,
Menlo Park, California (December 1986).
1.
Neter,
J., Wasserman, W., and
Kutner, M.
H.,
"Applied Linear
Statistical Models,"
Second Edition, Homewood,
Illinois, Richard D. Irwin,
Inc., p. 445
(1985).
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APPENDIX
A-l
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i
Final
Report
on
the
Stanford
Research
International
Project.
"Evaluation
of
the
Theory
of
Intuitive
Data
Sorting,
and
Its
Application
to
Bio
Laser
Doppler
Data
Generated
by
Marine
Microorganisms"
Duration:
Two Years from 10/1/85
Program Leader:
Dr.
C.
M.
Pleass
'
College of Marine Studies
University of Delaware
Newark,
Delaware
19716
The following description
is excerpted from the original proposal,
so
that
this final report may be placed
in proper perspective:
Year One
-
10/1/85
- 9/30/86.
Using the existing Bio Laser Doppler facilities at the Bay side
Laboratory, develop a protocol and statistical analytical procedure
which can effectively address
the
question
of
the validity
of
the
SRI theory known as Intuitive Data Sorting
(IDS).
The deliverable,
due by 9/30/86, would be a report describing
a mutually acceptable experimental and analytical
technique.
This
implies
frequent
contact
with
the
SRI
project
monitor
throughout
the year,
as
the various options are examined.
Year Two
-
10/1/86
- 9/30/87.
Using
the
protocol
and
procedure
developed
in
Year
,
to
carry
out
Bio Laser Doppler
experiments
that address
the validity
of
the
IDS theory.
This will require
the involvement of volunteer
participants from
tjhe Lewes community, whose task will be to try to
intuit
or
anticipate
changes
in
the
statistical
parameters
describing
the motion of marine microorganisms,
or
in some similar
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way,
to provide evidence bearing on the validity of the SRI theory.
The
individuals
involved
will
not
be
identified
in
the
report
by
name,
and
the
appropriate
informed
consent
will
be
obtained
in
each
case,
to
meet
the
University
of
Delaware's
human
subject
requirements.
The
deliverables
will
be
a
report
containing
a
description
of
the
detail
of each
trial,
including statistical
ensembles
that
best
represent
the
data,,
and
copies
of
the
floppy
discs
carrying
the raw data.
*******
In
practice,
the
project
progressed
in
two
cycles,
both
of-
which involved program development and experimental psi work.
Thus
in Year
,
two appropriate psi protocols were developed
(pk
85 and
WAVE),
and volunteers from the Lewes community used them to create
data bases which
SRI
and
UD examined
together
.
The experimental
and
analytical
techniques
appeared
acceptable,
a
priori,
but
instability
in
the
baseline
time
series
velocity
data
threatened
the credibility of
the results.
Very few segments of our time series records of unstimulated
algal movement taken prior
to
the
fall of
1986 were free from some
abrupt
changes
in
average
velocity
and
vector.
However
for
practical
reasons
most
of
the
data
had
been
acquired
during
the
Algal
swimming
velocity,
resolved
along
a
single
axis,
constituted
the
primary
experimental
variable.
The
variance
of
this data and the direction of movement,
up or down, were secondary
variables.
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working
day.
This
suggested
24-hour
time
series
studies
of
unstimulated cultures,
to examine
the possibility
that the observed
changes
were
part
of
a natural
circadian
rhythm.
After modifying
the
system
to
allow
hour
studies,
fifteen
24-hour
data
sets
were
collected
in November
- December
1986.
On January
13>
1987,
Ed
May
and
Peter
McNeils
of
SRI
met
with Mic
Pleass
and
Dean Dey
at
Lewes
to' discuss
this
data.
A
typical
time
series
is shown
in
the fold-out
(Fig.
1).
•
A
"window"
was
clearly
evident
in
all
data
sets
between
circa
midnight
and
eight
AM.
(Fig.
2)
The
data
in
this
region
were
quiet
and
would
have
formed
an
acceptable
basis
for
psi'
experiments.
However,
it
seemed
unlikely
that
participants
and
experimenters
would
show much enthusiasm
for working through
this
period.
As
a secondary benefit,
the
data
gave
us perspective
on
the
hours 0900 -
1500 which
include most of our previous
psi
runs.
It
seemed
clear
that
this was
a period when
the algae were generally
swimming non-randomly , with quite frequent abrupt changes in average
velocity.
As we were all aware,
this places a heavy stress
on
the
analytical
technique
and
the
credibility associated with
the
data
from psi experiments.
It
is impossible to choose between exogenous
or
endogenous
(circadian)
influences
when
looking
for
a
cause.
However,
the
group
were
suspicious
of
sonic
and
electromagnetic
disturbances associated with
the working day.
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The
environmental
chamber
housing
the
BLD
apparatus
was
converted into
a modestly good RF and sonic quiet room.
The results
were
unchanged.
The
next
step
was
to
actively
look
for
evidence
of
group
dynamic
change
within
the
algae
in
the
tissue
culture
vessel
used
to
hold
the
sample.
By
visually
observing
a particu-
>
larly
hardy
clone
of
Dunaliella
which
lived
for
three
months
on
Mic
Pleass* -office window
sill
(unnurtured through the period,
and
knocked
over
several
.times!)
we
were
able
to
identify
"micro
»
avalanches"
of
cells,
superimposed on upward and downward movement
of
the green suspension.
Literature
search revealed
one
relevant
reference 2 which provided examples of microavalanching
in cultures
of Dunaliella .
This seems to be a natural method of redistributing
cells which have physical reasons for normally swimming upward.
To
work
around
this
problem
a
flow
system was
constructed,
so
that
a
well
mixed
culture
from
a
biostat
external
to
the
environmental chamber could move
in slow
(100-200 pm sec-1
) laminar
flow
past
the
measuring
volume.
The
virtual
fringes
of
the
BLD
system were aligned parallel
to
the flow,
ie,
the axis along which
velocity
measurements
were
made
was
chosen
to
be
at
right
angles
to the artificially induced flow.
Experiments confirmed that these
velocity data were
unaffected
by
the
slow
flow.
Twenty-four
hour
runs
appeared
much
quieter.
Ed
May
visited
Lewes
again
on
May
5th,
just
at
the right
time
to see
a very good looking time series
2 Kessler,
J.
0.,
Cooperative and concentrative phenomena
of
swimming microorganisms.
Contemp. Phys.
1985, Vol.
26, #2, 147-166.
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Var i afci e
:
Sample
s ize
Average
Medi an
Mode
Geometric mean
Variance
Standard deviation
Standard error
Mi nimum
Max i mum
Range
Lower quartile
Upper quartile
Interquartile range
Skewness
Standardized skewness
Kurtosis
Standardized kurtosis
1658
-162.039
-162.312
-161.547
39.0124
6.24599
0.153394
-185.281
-127, 859*
57.4219
-166.14
-157.719
8.4217
0.190437
3.16568
0.553595
4.60128
-162, 306
-162.312
-163.078
37.563
6.12886
0.146216
-184.515
-137.813
46.7029
-166.14
-158.484
7.6563
9.197301
3.37628
0.325558
2.79553
, rvwv**(
X
1890
-182.547
-162.312
-163.078
36.1619
6,01348
0.138323
-182.219
-141.641
40.5785
-166.907
-158.484
8.4226
-0.0216271
-0.383844
-0.0216545
-0.192164
vv-p-^y
72u>f 00<f
DO: 'do -
Vari abl es
Sample size
Average
Medi an
Mode
Geometric mean
Variance
Standard deviation
Standard error
Minimum
Max i mum
fcange
Lower quartile
Upper quartile
Interquartile range
Skewness
Standardized skewness
Kurtosis
Standardized kurtosis
1857
-163.34
-163.078
-162.312
38.1946
6.18018
0,143415
-196
-139.343
56.6564
-167.672
-159.25
8.4217
0.112429
1.97791
0.561965
4.94322
1926
-163.527
-163.844
-161.547
41.748
6.46127
0.147228
-189.109
-140.875
48.2338
-167.672
-159.25
I
8.4217
0.0842093
1.50873
0.316777
2.83777
2096
-163.456
-163.844
-163.844
37.9794
6.16274
0.13461
-181.453
-139.343
42.1094
-167.672
-159.25
8.4217
0.167328
3.12743
0.0616489
0.576123
Fig.
3A
Summary statistics of one hour periods
from data set 004
® C«m u
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Approved For Release 2000/08/10
: CIA-RDP96-00787R000300070001-3
\<M- Oaa^ c^Jr-
Approved For Release 2000/08/10
: CIA-RDP96
Man afc) e
‘
MEL 6
Sample size
2202
Average
“163. 21
Med: an
-163.078
Mode
-163.078
Geometric mean
Mari ante
38.8447
Standard deviation
6.24057
Standard error
0.132389
Mi ni mum
-183.75
Max i mum
-139.343*
Range
44.4066
Lower quartile
-167.672
Upper quartile
-159.25
Interquartile range
8.4217
Skewness
0.0855942
Standardized skewness
1.63975
Kurtcsis
0.171419
Standardized kurtosis
1.64196
OOg^ROQ^^OOI-3^^
IN&reoHENrmc
S^Kf4. (Wq
/“rfZ.-ripflcf-
LCt-{ UJE" P&-€~ SX1LC-
>
Fig.
3B
Summary statistics
from 004 continued
i
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of
hour
velocity
data
(Fig.
3)*
The
stability
suggested
stochastically
stationary
data
and
a
chance
to
use
ANOVA's
with
repeated
measurement,
an
analytical
technique
which
Ed
May
had
recommended and described
in detail.
Unfortunately
a more careful
examination of the data showed
that while
the mean velocities were
v
constant
to
better
than
1 %
throughout,
the
higher
statistical
moments
varied
all
over.
Figs.
3A
and
3B
give
the
details:
the
handwritten marginal
not,es reflect our thinking at
that
time.
The
same
general
pattern prevailed
in repeat
runs,
and
it
was evident
that
these data would not be suitable
for
a pk vs IDS analysis.
At this point we acquired a new SD382 0-40KHZ signal analyzer'
for
the BLD spectroscopy project.
Using it,
we began to search for
artifacts
and
instrumental problems.
Studying
the
oscillators
in
the Dantec
tracker,
we found
that
the shift frequency which Dantec
had quoted
as 5.500 KHz drifted from 5.56X to 5.58X KHz.
The
time
scale of the drift was much longer than that of a set of psi trials.
However,
we
modified
our
procedures
to
calibrate,
prior
to
each
set,
largely because
this
insured
the correct sign on
the data
(up
or
down
motion).
At
the
same
time,
we
upgraded
the
precision of
our raw
data
by changing
the
data processing route from
the 8-bit
Dantec
tracker
to
a
bit
A/D
board.
The overall
result was
to
increase
the precision of
the velocity measurements
by a factor of
16.
Also,
percent positive
(or percent swimming downward)
became
a
useful,
unambiguous,
binomial
statistic which
could
be examined
for psi- induced changes
independent of the value of the velocity.
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Fig.
4 shows overnight data
from
the
system.
This general pattern
was
replicable,
and
little
different
from
that
obtained
earlier
with our less accurate apparatus.
On
inspection,
some portions of
the
time
series
data
appeared
relatively
normally
distributed.
Most
showed
widely
varying
skew
and
kurtosis.
We
hope
that
this
kind
of
biologically
active
data
will
help
SRI
with
their
pk
vs
IDS
studies',
but
we
have
serious
doubts.
We
are
confident
that
the data reflect what
is really going on
in
the culture .
Fig.
shows
a
layout
of
the
environmental
chamber
and
laboratory.
Two
sets
of
experiments
were
conducted
with
the
intention
of
providing
the
best
possible
data
for
SRI
to
use
for'
hypothesis- testing:
Set
psi
runs
using
a
modification
of
the
WAVE
protocol 3
,
with
sets
of
five
trials
at
each
of
three
sequence
lengths.
5,
and
averages
of
100
raw data were
chosen after discussions with Ed May
1*
Set
parallel
runs
in which
a
5000 VDC
spark
source within
the
environmental
chamber
provided
a low level
"real"
3 Pleass,
C.
M.
and N.
D.
Day,
"Behavioral response of marine
microorganisms
to psi
stimulus':
statistical analysis of data from
Dunaliella ,"
Proc.
29th Annual Conv.
Parapsych.
Soc.
f
Sonoma State
Univ.,
CA
(5-9 Aug.
1986).
SRI
originally
asked
that
the
duration
of
the
trial
be
hidden
from
the
participant,
i.e.
all
would
appear
to
have
the
duration of
the longest.
CMS missed this point and apologize.
If
the data are useful
in other respects, we would be pleased to repeat
the sets at no cost
to SRI.
SIRPROJ
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-W
>
^UJDOnSA
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Overnight
data
from
the
flow
system
after
upgrading
to
bit
data
transfer
13 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300070001-3 d0L-HONIE | D¥N2laboxs Wiss | CUVEGAIAN IN¥ GOLINOW S. <chwsn . SYR HWNAaLIa ODHYHD SUQWasdQ d ABN ssi Hite moog squouyiedxg ISd Iy§$ 10J ynokey] AeqT S °3Ta4 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000300070001-3
Approved For Release 2000/08/10
: CIA-RDP96-00787R000300070001-3
(sonic,
optical
and
E.M.)
stimulus
for
comparative
statistical
analysis.
Format
for
the Experiments
The
"WAVE"
protocol
is
a technique
for examining
the release
*
of
psi
pressure.
Its general characteristics
are:
•
-Continuous
time
series
data
beginning
several
hours
prior
to
the, psi
run.
•
Participants
"warm
up"
at
their
own
pace,
prior
to
a
trial.
•
The participant makes
one button push,
to mark
the
end
of
the psi period.
•
A space between trials
at least
4X the data content
of
the preceding psi period.
Detail
of
the
modifications
used
to
carry
out
the
SRI
work
follow:
1)
Electronics are turned on the evening before a run.
If
overnight
data
is
to
be
collected,
three
hours
will
I
subsequently
be
deleted
from
the
time
series
to
cover
the warm-up and stabilization of
the oscillators.
2)
Data
routing :
Photomultiplier
tracker,
for
removal
of
.MHz
shift
bit
A
-*•
D
conversion
*
PC
-*•
identification of status
(predata,
psi,
control,
etc.)
by
a file marker.
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3)
4)
5)
Data
processing :
PC
•+
raw
velocities
and
up/down
information
(±
sign
on
the
raw
data)
-*
means
of
100
raw
velocities,
and
percent moving
down.
Store
this.
One
line
of
the
file will
then
read:
Record
#,
time,
av.
velocity,
std.
deviation,
% positive,
Marker
w
.
Definition of file markers:
- unassigned
666
- Button-push
at
end of psi
period
888
} historic,
pseudopsi
and pseudo control
777
} markers of no utility
for SRI work
Approximately
one
hour
before
the
participant
arrives
the
experimenter
will
break
the
predata
collection,
check
the
actual
shift
frequency
using
the
SD380,
and
restart
the
control program with
the
new value
added.
(Normally
changes
are
very
slight
after
the
warm
up
period,
and
the
time
for
detectable
change
is
long
compared
to
the duration of a set of psi
trials)
.
The
participants'
ID
number,
data,
and
the
initial
number
of
points
per
trial
will
be
added
at
this
time.
The
screen will be left ready for
the participant with
the
instruction
Press FI
to mark end of trial
Trial X coming up!
6)
The
participant
will
be
seated
by
the
keyboard
and
monitor
outside
the
environmental
chamber.
They
can
be
observed
by
the
experimenter
through
a glass
panel
in
a
connecting
door
(Fig.
4).
They
have
been
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encouraged
to
take
whatever
time
they personally feel
that
they need
to get
into a psi-conducive state prior
to
each button
push.
They
are motivated
to
keep
this
period short,
because we ask that
they perform at least
fj.ve
trials
at
each
of
three
sequence
lengths.
When
they become aware of
a period of peak performance they
are
instructed
to press
FI
(which marks
the data
file)
and
abruptly, break
out
of
the
psi
mode*.
The monitor
screen
turns
from
grey
to
blue
at
the
button
press.
During
the blue screen
interval
they are asked
to read
a dictionary.
When the screen returns
to grey they may
try again.
7)
After five
or more
trials at
the first sequence length
(500
raw data
points),
the
participant
uses
a menu
to
change
to
the
next
sequence
length.
A
x
500,
x
1500
and
x
4000
experiment
normally
takes
on
the
order of 2-2 1/2 hours.
Discussion of the Experimental Format
•
There may be an inevitable restriction on producing BLD data
for
a
comparison
of
psi
and
IDS
hypotheses.
Our
observation
is
that
the psychological state of
the participant tends
to change
as
the
set
progresses.
They
may
become
more
psi-competent
or
less,
and
we
can
see
no
way
to
quantify
this
or
eliminate
its
effect,
5 We feel that
the act of becoming aware of deep involvement
is
in itself
a sign that
the period has ended.
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unless
a
large
data
base
were
developed
from
sets
where
sequence
length
was
chosen
at
random.
We
can
do
this;
however,
if
the
identity
of
the
trial
is
to
be
hidden
from
the
operator
by
constantly using
the longest spacer,
it may be desirable
to reduce
the length of kthe longest sequence.
Our experience to date suggests
that
100
trials
at
a
sequence
length
of
would
take
circa
participant 'hours.
•
No
immediate
feedback
was
provided
during
the
trials
whose
results are reported below.
Our participants do not like watching
the monitor during the run, and we have not yet found an appropriate
way
of
reflecting
their
performance.
After
the
experiment
is
complete
the
participant
is
debriefed.
The
experimenter
notes
their
comments
and
adds
his
own.
As
soon
as
we
can
settle
on
a
"real
time"
analytical
procedure
that
we
can
use
to
present
the
results
of
the
experiment
we
will
do
so,
but
at
present
the
analytical procedure requires transferring
the time-series data to
Lotus
for
processing.
Results
are
mailed
to
the
participants,
usually within one week.
j
•
Although the participant is aware of the progression to longer
sequence
lengths
this
does
not directly affect
the
length of
time
they
spend
working
into
a
psi-conducive
state.
The
reason
that
everyone
gives
for preferring
the WAVE protocol
is
that
they
need
not
"work by
the clock".
The time series data which reflect their
effort
generally contains
several
times
the number
of
data points
required
for
the analysis.
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Results
Four
participants
completed
sets
in
the
format
previous
described.
One
set of data was developed
in the same
format using
a distant spark as a low level
"real"
stimulus. 6
The experimenter
switched on t£e spark when the grey screen appeared
(the equivalent
of
beginning
to
get
into
a
psi-conducive
state)
and
switched
it
off
again
one
minute
later,
pressing
FI
at
the
same
time.
The
various files are
identified
in
the cover letter which was shipped
to SRI with the data on 9/14/87, and
a copy of this
is attached for
completeness as Appendix
.
We
routinely
check
the
summary
statistics
from
random
samples
from pre-data strings once the data have been transferred
to Lotus.
Since the raw data have been shipped to SRI we will only report our
general
conclusion:
that
very
few
sample
periods
contain
data
which even approximate a normal distribution.
The 8000 point data
set
sent
to
Ed
May
prior
to
the
January
meeting
is,
ironically,
one
of
the
best
approximations
to
a
normal
distribution.
We
solemnly swear that this was
Ipy chance and not by
intent
(
l
)
.
Because
the baseline distributions were not generally normal
we
chose
to
examine
the
psi
and
control
periods
using
the
non-
parametric
two
sample
Kolmogorov
and
Smirnov
test.
This
has
the
additional practical advantage of presenting a graph of cumulative
6 Two
other
"spark
runs"
were
carried
out,
but
not
sent
to
SRI since power failures took out the predata.
We would appreciate
feedback
before
repeating
these
experiments',
since
it
seems
as
though a more
intense
"real"
stimulus would be better.
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C.d.F.
s
Hfr
rnKt.
or. a
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Two-Sample Test
Sample
i:
PsOP?.pos5 SELECT P:0P?.mark5 EQ 666
Sample
2:
P:0P?.pos5 SELECT P:0P7.mark5 EQ 999
Estimated overall
statistic DN
* 0.24
Approximate significance
level
* 0.467558
Fig.
Participant
7,
%+ve data.
Sequence length 500 raw data points.
Approved For Release 2000/08/10
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C.D .T.'s
rflKT.or.13
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Two-Sample Test
Sample
is
PsOP?.posl5 SELECT P:0P7.mar)ci5 EQ 666
I
Sample
2:
P:0P7.posi5 SELECT P: 0P7. markl5 EQ 999
Estimated overall
statistic DN
= 0.32
Approximate significance
level
* 9.2395E-4
Fig.
Participant
7,
%+ve data.
Sequence length 1500 raw data points.
Approved For Release 2000/08/10
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Approved For Release 2000/08/10
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-1-
PART. 07. 40
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Two-Sample Test
Sample
Is
PiOP7.pos40 SELECT P:0P7.mark4O EQ 666
Sample
2:
P:OP?.pos40 SELECT P:OP?.mark40 EQ 999
Estimated overall
statistic DN
* 0.195
Approximate significance
level
* 9.95911E-4
Fig.
Participant
7,
%+ve data.
Sequence length 4000 raw data points.
Approved For Release 2000/08/10
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Kolmogorov-Smirnov Two-Sample Test
Sample
i:
T:GL0BO7. pospreS SELECT T:GL0BO7. mark5 EQ 666
Sample
2:
TsGL0BO7.pospre5 SELECT T:GL0BO7. mark5 EQ 999
Estimated overall statistic DN
* 0.16
Approximate significance
level
* 0.999999
C.Il.r. 's
m-
GLOBAL 07.5
observation
Fig.
Global control from predata file
for Participant
7,
%+ve,
500.
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Kolmogorov-Smirnov Two-Sample Test
Sample
1:
TJGLGB07. pospreiS SELECT T:GLOB07. mar)cl5 EQ 666
Sample
2!
T:GL0BO7. pospreiS SELECT T:«LOB07. markl5 EQ 999
Estimated over air statistic BN
* 0.146667
Approximate significance
level
» 0.395295
C.D.E.'s
GLOBAL 07.15
observation
.
Fig.
Global control from predata file,
for Participant
7,
Z+ve,
1500.
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Approved For Release 2000/08/10
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Kolmogorov-Smirnov Two-Sample Test
Sample
is
T:GLOB07. pospre40 SELECT T:GLOB07.mark40
Eft 666
Sample
2:
T^GL0BO7.pospre40 SELECT T:GLOB07.mark40
Eft 999
Estimated overall
statistic BN
0.12
Approximate significance
level
0.11225
C.D.F.'s
GLOBAL 07.40
observation
Fig.
Global control from predata file,
for Participant
7,
%+ve,
4000.
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Matrix Analysis
ALL PARTICIPANTS -
15 POINTS
velocity
PS1 <16
i
CONTOQL >16
*+
%pv oitive
P
Button push
Fig.
Averages by column.
All files
for 40 and
data point trials.
Datum +
points.
Approved For Release 2000/08/10
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Approved For Release 2000/08/10
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Kolmogorov-Smi rnov Two-Sample Test
ample
li
V.MATR1X15. velocity SELECT
V: MATE I XI 5. marker
EQ 666
ample
s
VJMATE1X15. velocity
SELECT
V: MATE! >.15, marker
EQ 999
stimated overall
statistic
DN
= 0.131532
pproximate significance
level
=
1.35214E-4
Fig.
All participants.
Average
of 40 and
data point
trials.
Datum + 15
points
.
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Kolmogorov-Smirnov Two-Sample
Test
•ample U
VSMATKIXIS. positive
SELECT
V'. MATE 1 XI 5. marker
EQ 666
Sample
2s
VSMATRIX15. positive SELECT
V: MATE 1X1 5. marker
EQ
999
Estimated overall
statistic
I>N
* 0.0792793
approximate significance
level
* 0.0611045
Fig.
All participants.
Average
of 40
and
15 data point
trials.
Datum + 15
points
.
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^4*r30'CO
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Frequency Histogram
MATSIX-15
- ALL PARTICIPANTS
Fig.
verage
of 40 and
data point
trials.
Datum +
15 points
.
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«:
o
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Frequency Histogram
MATRIX-15 AIL PARTICIPANTS
Fig.
'Average
of 40
and
data point
trials.
Datum +
15 points.
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Xol mocrorov-Smi rnov Two-Sample
Test
Semple
is
VtCHATfilX. jveli5 SELECT OsOMATRIX. grmarki5
EQ 666
Semple
2s
OsfifiATEIX. gvellS SELECT VsSMATEJX. gmarlclS
EQ
999
Estimated overall
statistic
I*N
* 0.074796?
Approximate significance
level
= 0.0640856
observati on
Fig.
Global control.
All participants.
40 and
15 data point
trials.
Datum + 15
points.
Approved For Release 2000/08/10
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Approved For Release 2000/08/10
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kolmogorov-Smirnov Two-Sample
Test
Sample
1!
Os&MATRIX. grposlS
SELECT
VsfiMATKIX. gmarklS
EQ 666
Sample
2:
VtCMATRIX. gposlS
SELECT
VJQflATP.IX. gmarklS
EQ
999
Estimated overall
statistic
I>N
B 0.0666667
Approximate significance
level
- 0.129969
0:GMATF.IX. srosl
;
Fig.
Global control.
All participants.
40 and
15 data point
trials.
Datum +
points.
Approved For Release 2000/08/10
: CIA-RDP96-00787R000300070001-3
Approved For Release 2000/08/10
: CIA-RDP96-00787R000300070001-3
APPENDIX
Description
of Data
on Discs
Sent
to
SRI
on
September
1987
September
14,
1987
SUMMARY OF WAVE 19B7 PROTOCOL
The Wave protocol
allows
a participant
to become
involved
in
a
trial
at
their
own
speed.
When
the participant recognizes
that
they are fully
involved
in
the experiment
(i.e.,
they emerge from
the state
of
complete
involvement
momentarily),
they
end
the
trial
by
pressing
the
FI
key.
This places
a
666
in
the marker
field,
identifying
the end
of
the
psi
period
and
the beginning
of
the period
which
we
call
control.
Please note
that
the
involve-
ment
of
the participant
is
normally
substantially
longer
than
that
required
by
the
analytical
protocol.
At
the end
of
the
control
period
a random
spacer
is
placed
in
the
data
files,
followed
by
a Pseudo-psi
and Pseudo-control
trial.
An additional
longer
spacer
period
is
then
added
before
another
trial
is
allowed
to
begin.
Note
that
although
the pseudo-tr i a 1 s
are
historic remnants
(we could
have deleted
the markers
for
you),
we
have experimental
evidence
that
if
the
algae are stimulated
by
some
"real"
source such
as
a
spark,
returning
to
the baseline
condition requires
a period
at
least
S
-
3 times
the duration
of
the
stimulus.
The
total
interval
therefore
defines
a
trial
period appropriate
for experiments which
address
a comparison of
psi
and
spark
data.
The data
files
consists
of
ASCII
records
written
in
a
Sequential
file,
recorded
as
the data
are collected.
Each record
consists
of
6 fields,
each field
is separated
by
a comma.
Each
data record consists
of
the following
fields:
Record
#,
Time,
Average
Velocity,
Standard
Deviation,
•/.
Positive,
Marker
All
data
used
are
the absolute value
(i.e.,
sign
is
ignored
except
in
the calculation
of
*/. positive).
Each recorded
velocity
field
(4*3)
of
each
record
is
in reality
the mean of
100
in-
dividual
raw absolute velocities.
The
standard deviation field
(#4)
is calculated using
the raw absolute velocities.
The
*/. Positive field
(#5)
records
the number
of raw velocit-
ies
which were
positive during
the collection
of
the
100 raw
data points.
The Marker
field
(#6)
has the following
codes:
Approved For^eleasgn2a0JDQ/08/1p pCJA-|DP96-00787R000300070001 -3
Approved For Release 2000/08/10
: CIA-RDP96-00787R000300070001-3
666
-
Button Push
at
end
of
psi
Period
999
- Control
Period
8BB
-
Pseudo-psi
Period
777
- Pseudo Control
Period
All
non-zero
Marker
periods
are
of
the
same
length.
The 666
marker
indicates
the END
of
the
psi
period*
as
this
point
is
of
unknown prior
to
the decision
of
the participant.
At
the beginning
of
the
set*
the number
<N)
of records
to
be
collected
in
each
trial
is selected.
To
analyze
the
data,
this
number
used
to
delineate
the
psi
period.
This
is
not
yet
programmed
in:
one must
go
back
to
the data files
and
add
(N-l)
666 marker
records prior
to
each existing
666 marker
.
The data are on
IBM AT
1.2 MB floppies.
The filename format
is:
WAVEx xxx
. dat
where
xxxx represents
the filenumber
shown below.
Test #
#/Tr ial
PreData File
PostData File
Participant 5
35B
353
357
AO
Participant 7
A 1
420
AE1
Participant AB
359
AOB
409
A06
All
410
AO
App ro
Rtfease 2000/08/10
: CIA-RDP96-00787R000300070001-3
Approved For Release 2000/08/10
: CIA-RDP96-00787R000300070001-3
440
439
438
Spark
412
413
414
415
The directory structure
is:
DISK
1:
ROOT
PART
OP05
OP07
0P48
SPARK
OP 1 7
,
PRE
POST
437
41 le
441
417
DISK
2:
ROOT
PART
L
- urvj
j
r«c.
POST
0P07
PRE
- 0P48
r
PRE
j
POST
•SPARK
i
PRE
POST
Approved For Release 2000/08/10
: CIA-RDP96-00787R000300070001-3