datamatters24/research-document-archive huggingface dataset:
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300210001-5 UNCLASSIFIED VII DISCUSSION (U).. 2... we ee ee ee et tt th ew ee 33 Appendix--CHRONOLOGICAL LITERATURE SURVEY (UU)... 2 we we we 41 REFERENCES (U). 6 6 1 ee ee ee et ew ee tt tw et tk a 57 iv UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300210001-5 rE
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JONANOSS ONISSAIOYd 3S1Nd (nN) zZ aHNDIS OaldISsvTONN (LLL) 13 UNCLASSIFIED HLOOLMYS .MVd, Approved For Release 249}Q {Oy ACE'SA PAGE [9P788R001300210001-5 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300210001-5 Approved For Release 2000/08/07
411002 Approved For Release 2000/08/09 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003600330003-4 MSS(OW’ = DESCRIBE IE EvEnTS/ IN CREWE CG UIEICAMT Te THE IRAGD SP UAT ON for THe Follow TIME [ERIOPS: Q, WIS TAN 129/ b 15-22 Saw 19Y € 23-3) TA (77 Approved For Release 2000/08/09 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003600330003-4
SECRET
•
Approved For Release 2000/08/07
: CIA-RDP96-O0MfrROOO4O^^^^^|
SG1
,
DRAFT
23 JAN- 73
SOME REFLECTIONS ON PARAPSYCHOLOGICAL PHENOMENA AND
THE INT E L LIGE
N
CE COMMUNITY
Introdue ti on
L Prompted by the 23 JAN 73 Stanford Research Institute (SRI) presentation of
experiments with Ingo SWANN and Uri GELLER and by an earlier paper on "Direct
Brain Perception/Action
11 which was prepared by Dr Henry PUHARICH and Captain
Edgar MITCHELL,
this paper
: briefly discusses the background concerning the
SWANN-GELLER phenomena; analyjf.es the three basic questions which are suggested
by these purported phenomena; outlines the author
! s limited knowledge of the Agency
f s
current position and involvement as regards this field; and makes some basic recom-
mendations concerning possible courses
of action,
.
SGI
I
Background
2, Since stenographic notes were taken during the 23 Jan 73 SRI presentation and
since a verbatim record can be obtained fr om
of OSI (ext 4 03 5),
this paper
will not attempt to render an account of the session.
It is
sufficient to note that the
presentation consisted of descriptions,
a film,
slides and extensive question-and-
answer exchanges on SRI's recent and continuing experiments with Ingo SWANN and
Uri GELLER- -covering a broad spectrum of purported par apsychological phenomena
and focusing particularly on
:
ESP
( nP n in both the perception and projection sense);
telekinetics; clairvoyance; and the perturbation/stressing/distortion of metals and
fields
of energy by apparently paranormal (paraphysical/parapsychological) means.
As presented by the three SRI researchers and their 20 minute film of GELLER,
there
would appear
to have been an incredibly high order of consistent performance in these
areas --IF one accepts as being above reproach both the credentials and the motivation
of the SRI representatives and
if one accepts the efficacy of their laboratory controls
and their statistical analysis
of the data,
3, From some of the questioning during the session and remarks overhead later
,
it was clear that a fair proportion of the approximately 20 observers entertained some
doubts concerning controls and/or analysis.
But the doubts appeared to be mostly,
if
not entirely, matters of degree and of personal preference in terms
of methodology--
and were tempered by understanding of the relatively short lead-time and facilities
available to SRI,
Most of those present appeared to accept,
as a working hypothesis,
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SECRET
Approved For Release aICLA 11414 > eee 300210001-5 (U) voltage rose above a threshold corresponding to electron energy of 25 keV. From this point the signal processing was the same as described above for Figure 2(c). 2, Analysis and Control (U) (U) The analysis and control portion of the system consisted of an LSI=-11 microcomputer. The LSI-11 was programmed to sample one of the noise sources at a specified rate to obtain its random bits. A sequence of such samples was tested by the LSI-1l1 for an excess or lack of ones on a continuous basis, using a sequential analysis statistical technique .° 7,5? (U) Sequential analysis is an efficient technique for determi ning whether the output of a binary random generator contains a distribution of zeroes and ones as expected, or is distorted. The principal advantage of this technique as compared with other methods is that, on the average, fewer bits per final decision are required (roughly 50 percent fewer) for an equivalent degree of statistical reliability. (U) Before we are able to detect whether the random output of a binary generator has been distorted, we must a priori define criteria as to how much distortion we require, and what statistical risks we are willing to accept for making an incorrect decision, To meet these criteria, sequential analysis demands the specification of four parameters to de- termine to which binomial distribution a particular data sequence belongs. The four parameters are: (1) Po? the fraction of ones expected in an undistorted distribution; (2) Py» a threshold for the fraction of ones assigned to define distorted distributions; (3) a, the assigned acceptable probability for concluding that the random source is perturbed (p, dis- tributor or greater) when it is not (Type I error); (4) and 8, the assigned acceptable probability for concluding that the random source is 14 UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300210001-5 eee
Approved For Release VELA SS FAP P—o0788R001 300210001-5 (U) unperturbed (2, distribution) when it is (Type II error). With the parameters thus specified, the sequential sampling procedure provides a decision graph as shown in Figure 3. In this figure, the y axis displays the accumulated number of excess ones (number of ones less expected number of ones) as a function of sample number (x axis). Using Figure 3, a decision can be made after the nth sample by applying the following algorithm: (1) Sample the binary sequence. (2) Sum the excess number of ones to date. (3) If the excess sum of ones lies above Line A but not in Region 1, or below Line B but not in Region 2, do Step 1. (4) If the sum lies in Region 1, stop the sampling and conclude that the binary sequence is derived from a distorted distribution with fraction of ones greater than Py: (5) If the sum lies in Region 2, stop the sampling and conclude that the sequence belongs to a distorted distribution with fraction of ones less than 1 - Py: (6) If the sum attempts to cross both Line A and Line B, stop the sampling and conclude that the sequence belongs to the undistorted distribution, Po: The detailed analysis and mathematical. formulations of sequential analysis can be found in May and Hubbard .*® (U) For the experiment described in this report, Po? Py? Qa, and 8 were fixed at 0.50, 0.52, 0.05, and 0.05, respectively. 3. Display (U) (U) The computer-driven graphics display system consisted of two independent 19-in. color video monitors, a Grinnell display controller, and a Summagraphics 20-by-20-in, graphics tablet. Using these components, UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300210001-5
Approved For Release ONCLA'SSTIFTIED -00788R001300210001 -5 ACCUMULATED EXCESS NUMBER OF ONES 4 = _ So ° 8 8 8 3 0 UNCLASSIFIED F Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300210001-5
DATE: REPLY TO ATTN OF: SUBJECT: TO: SG1J Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : cia RDP 96-00 e0ATESD ARIES GOVERNMENT memorandum 20 Dec 90 U20,510/DT-3/90 - DT-S Request for Project Nickname oSC-4B 1. On 23 October 1990, The DIA/DT Special Access Program, SUN STREAK, was terminated. Consequently, all SUN STREAK material will be downgraded and handled in accordance with Limited 2 Dissemination procedures for a period of at least one year. 2. To facilitate this change over, we now require a new unclassified nickname for the Limited Dissemination period. 3. Please assist _us in identifying a new nickname and provide to myself or to SG1B ‘POC for this action. SG1J rancn. 1eé OPTIONAL FORM NO. 10 (REV. 1-80) GSA FPMR (41 CFR) 101-11. SOte-114 ‘Approved For Release 2003/04/18 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002600200002-0 . te GPO s 1984 O — 461-275 (272)
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e. procedures for collecting/storing/analyzing all statistical data related
to the investigations;
f.
security procedures;
g. management procedures--e. g.
,
locale,
choice and rotation of supervisors,
as well as SOPs for their performance;
h.
utility forecasts - -e. g.
,
futaarology projections and operational pragmatics.
As soon as the Panel has acceptable working drafts in each of these areas they (perhaps
on a relatively selective basis) should be submitted to the appropriate non-agency
elements with a legitimate interest and some potential for contribution- -this should
probably include (but not necessarily be limited to) NSA and ARPA.
External responses
to these papers would then be considered by the
Panel in the preparation of its
detailed Project Proposal for the consideration of C/ORD and C/TSD (and,
as deemed
appropriate, higher authority).
In the interim
, basic and undisputed aspects of the
design could be discussed with SRI so that appropriate adjustments could be made in
their installation (or,
variously,
so that a new installation could be found),
so that
upon approval the investigations could proceed without undue delay.
And,
finally,
the Panel should focus on all likely requirements for extraordinary experts /gear /
facilities that are apt to be encountered during the project and,
in an appendix to its
basic Proposal,
should identify those available (already cleared) and should suggest
appropriate action for locating and (in the appropriate cover context) contacting
the remainder--so that,
at some critical juncture,
the entire project won't he stalled
for want of reasonable foresight.
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B7R1000400080003-9 PREPARE REPLY _ DISPATCH RECOMMENDATION FILE RETURN INFORMATION SIGNATURE SG1I FORM NO. 927 Use previous editions
Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RI #66: #01: #66: #01: #66: #01: #663 #01: #66: #01: #663 #01: #662 #01: #66: #01: Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA+RDRGE Okay. Move now over to the last area, area "H". Starting with the upper floors of area "H". eeeeeein rooms that....rows and rows of files, not files but...cases with a......books, some kind of booklets or books,...thick files of some kind, stacked, row after row like library......... Describe these booklets. Ah....six inches by ten inches, half inch thick,... thin paper,...serrated in a way so they tear. Ah.... Now the setting in which you see these books, they on library shelves or how are they? .. Stored like in a library, stacked. You said something about crates or something? No crates. eeoeeeese They're packed and put in Metal, protected with metal wrapping, foil. You said something about them being packed? Packed in foil. ......Packed in multiples of two. »eein a heavy....heavy box. soeesee Ee Aan area with a....Presses, printing presses. Closer to ground floor. Okay. eeoeee Many different sizes, cutting machines,...(mumble), processing bookS.....eue Okay. In summary then in the area "H" upstairs, we have many, many books which are packed in foil packets, two at a time, and below this somewhere we have printing area and cutting, and book preparing area and further down then in area "H", seeeeeee Ge a..e-lab like a....miniaturized assembly area of some kind, all identical desks type repair tables....with tools everywhere. Type of tools? Tiny, small and like watch re--, watch repair tools. »o+e-Small electronic boxes like....small, ‘ ¥88R001600390001-3
#66: #01: #663 #01; #66: #01: #66: #01: £66: #01: #66: #01: #66: #01: #66: #01: PRO01600390001-3 some square, some narrow, some a little bit longer than others. seees strong feeling of modification,....or alteration would be better choice..of words. The activity then in perceived as some sort alteration or modification to electronic boxes? Correct. The tools used to do this seem to be extremely small tools, as though they were small enough to work on watches? Yes, very small..... All right. There's a vault area here too. Describe vault area. I'm sorry, wait just a Moment. I don't know if in the choice of words you meant that this area was a vault area or that there was also a vault area. Just a minute. I will wait. I can't tell if it's in vault or out of vault, you got to go through a vault door to get to it. I can't tell if it's in or out. You go through a vault door into area, you through vault out of area. All right. It's just a wall with a vault door. seoeee teal cages,...with multiple compartments. I've lost track of where you are. Somewhere near a steel cages with multiple compartments, same same floor as the lab, repairs stuff. Okay. eoeeveeeesss stnat's all I get. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001600390001-3
Approved For Release CO NCCA SS BRED io e8R oO 300210001-5 Cc. Controls (U) (U) Aside from the presession control trials, a total of 1000 addi- tional control trials were taken in sets of 100 or more for each of the - seven participants, These trials were collected at random times on a 24- hour basis to establish the empirical sampling distribution throughout . the formal testing period. D. Test Requirements (U) EE me nes (U) The test requirements for a single trial were determined com- pletely by the formulation of the sequential analysis theory. In that analysis a set of decision boundaries completely determines (within the bounds of the Type I and Type II errors specified) from which of the distributions (chance or distorted) a given sequence belongs. Details of this analysis are given in May and Hubbard .*® For a single trial to be successful, the sequence had to belong to a distorted distribution _ corresponding either to a mean 20,52 or < 0.48, with a single-tailed confidence factor of 95 percent, The overall chance likelihood for making a decision in favor of a two-tailed distorted distribution on any given trial was 0.1, (U) Each subject was required to contribute 100 valid trials. Of these 100 trials, the number of sequences designated by the sequential analysis as being distorted were tallied by the computer. The probability of obtaining 16 successful events in 100 trials is less than 0,039 (fifteen is greater than p = 0.05). The subject therefore had to produce 16 or more successful formal trials out of a total of 100 to have completed a Significant run, As during the pilot period, the subject could choose to exercise a pass option before any given trial, in which case it was labeled ——————_——________. * (U) See Part F below for definition of valid/invalid trials. 22 UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300210001-5
( OperpbvtfEdt Adlease 2000/08/09 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003700460002-0 a Ouems ana nes Sn anetne a ; i ‘ te y S { o Z t 4 %. a X, Approved For Release 2000/08/09 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003700460002-0~ ~~ }
Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002400410001-0 SESSION INFORMATION A. TARGET DATA: Task/Target No. £93-149=-P Session No. 301 B. PERSONAL DATA: Source No. 2025 Monitor's No. sN/A Beacon/Sender No. sN/A Cc. SESSION DATA? Date Task Received 215 Jan 93 Session Date £15 Jan 93 Start Time :11:00 Stop Time £12:00 Method Used 3: ERV Aids/Distractions (PIs) :N/A Pre-session Hunches (AVs) :N/A Date Summary Returned 315 Jan 93 D. EVALUATION DATA? Viewer's Estimate Evaluator's Estimate N/A E. SESSION SUMMARY The site has a radiating orange light or form of electricity within a structure. Water is contained in the area. There is a crack in the wall which may be related to wires or wiring and could cause damage. This target appears to be one of a scientific nature which relates to electrical energies. A large oblong container holds substances at this location. This site can be dangerous if there is a leak or setting off of these energies into the atmosphere. The target causes a reaction. A glittering electrical light is shimmering. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002400410001-0
Approved For Release CR CA SST ETE Bo een 18002 1000-8 (U) as such in the computer record. Regardless of the outcome, a pass did not contribute to the formal series of 100 trials. (U) For the entire study to have significance, two or more of the seven subjects chosen for the formal study were required to complete significant runs, The probability of obtaining two significant runs out of seven attempts by chance is less than 0.028, The probability of a single significant run is = 0.039. E, Records (U) (U) Two types of data recording were utilized during the formal test period: (1) Recording of summary statistical information. (2) Bit-by-bit recording of raw data. For all trials (passes, presession and postsession controls, and the 1000 additional control trials for each participant), a summary statistic was recorded on a single floppy disk. This data included the following: e Date e Time of day (to nearest second) * Temperature of diode (if used) e« Source e¢ Pass indicator e Accumulated number of trials e Accumulated number of successful trials e Number of samples in the given trial * Number of ones in that trial ® Sequential analysis decision, 23 UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300210001-5
SGI J
OATES
REPLY TO
ATTN OFs
SUBJECT:
130
Approved For Release 2003/04/18
: CIA-RDP96-OO789ttNff£R>S0S5K>GOVERf™ENT
memorandum
20 Deo
U20.510/DT-S/90
DT-S
Request for Project Nickname
TO:
0SC-4B
1.
On 23 October
1990,
The DIA/DT Special
STREAK,
was terminated.
Consequently,
all
SUN STREAK material
will
be downgraded and handled
in accordance
with Limited
Dissemination procedures
for
a period of
at
least one
year.
2.
To facilitate this change
over,
we now require
a new
unclassified nickname
for
the Limited Dissemination period.
3.
Please assi st
us
in
to myself
or
to
POC for this action.
identifying
a new nickname,
and provide
SG1B
SGI J
Branch thiet
OPTIONAL FORM NO. 10
(REV. 1-00)
OSAFPMR(41CFR) 101-11.0
5010-114
Approved For Release 2003/04/18
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iV GPO
:
1984 O - 461-275
(272)
ta ernment ere near at Approved For Release Ab NG LA SAlRSER 00789 R002200400001-3 then be evaluated statistically, where under the null hypothesis an average of 50 hits would be expected by chance. If the average number of hits over thousands of repetitions were say, 52, this deviation from chance would be interpreted as evidence of a psi effect (provided that the probability of observing this deviation was less than 1 in 20). PROCEDURE Because we were ultimately interested in testing among several different models of mechanisms possibly operating in these RNG experiments, in Part 1 of this Meta-analysis (this paper) we surveyed the parapsychological literature with two goals in mind: First, we wanted to see whether the ageregated result of the RNG experiments showed evidence for an anomalous, effect. And second, we needed the details of these experiments for use in evaluating a model of the underlying mechanism. [Our modeling effort is discussed in May, Radin, Hubbard, Humphrey and Utts (1985).] Source of references cS We searched through the five major English language parapsychological journals’ over the years 1969 to 1984. We also included the (refereed) Proceedings of Presented Papers for the Annual Parapsychological Association Conventions (1971 and 1984), and a report published by the Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research Laboratory (Nelson, Dunne and Jahn, 1984). The literature search was started in the year 1969 because that was the year Helmut Schmidt (1969) published the seminal RNG study that has since spawned many replications. Defining “an experiment” * One of the difficulties faced in reviewing the articles for this meta-analysis was to decide what constituted an experiment. In most papers, authors analyze their data repeatedly in various ways, sometimes as a priori analyses, sometimes as Post hoc afterthoughts. Even in cases of planned analyses, there are many ways of interpreting which of several conditions is the “real” experiment. How we decide what is an experiment is important to the meta-analysis for two main reasons: First, the meta-analytic statistical power depends on the number of experiments we find; and second, the z scores are different depending on how we break down the reported results. To illustrate the difficulty of deciding what an experiment is, consider this example. Say an author uses three different groups of 10 percipients each (e.g. meditators, truck drivers and athletes) and subjects each group to two different conditions (e.g. mental imagery vs. muscular tension) in a study on psi-conducive states. The results can be broken into one big, combined experiment, six experiments (3 groups x 2 conditions), two experiments (2 conditions), three 1. These are the Journal of Parapsychology, European Journal of Parapsychology, Research in Parapsychology, Journal of the Society for Psychical Research, Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research. , UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200400001-3
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t
SESSION INFORMATION
A.
TARGET DATA;
Task/Target No.
Session No.
B.
PERSONNEL DATA :
Source No.
Monitor's No.
Beacon/Sender No.
C.
SESSION DATA:
Date Task Received
Session Date
Start Time
Stop Time
Method used
Aids/Distractions
(Pis)
Pre-session hunches
(AVs)
Date Summary Returned
D.
EVALUATION DATA:
Viewer's Estimate
Evaluator's Estimate
92-8
079
6 Feb 92
7 Feb 92
1400
1500
Solo
Feb
E.
SESSION SUMMARY :
.
.
* ..
One
area
of
the
site
has
square
hard
concrete
or
slabs
of
hard
rock.
This area is man made.
This area is very large and spacious
and this large square is divided up in parts.
It seemed as though
it was warm
at the
site.
Some people
at the
site work and
some
people at the site watch what
is going on and some people are here
to help prepare for what
is going to happen.
The people that work
at the site wear
some type
of special clothing.
The people that
watch what is going on dress casually.
Small circular objects are
associated with the site and there
is
a "swing" motion associated
at the
site.
A
"socket"
and an
"opening"
is at the
site.
Some
vehicles are here.
Rewards or awards can be here and victories are
here.
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