vestigators carAftpPf6^fiflfofi|$lfSSe
• tons ofdebris for clues to the bomber.
’
Then the hard work begins. Once they
enter
the damaged
area,
investigators
will face the tedious process of finding
chemical traces and fragments of the ve-
hicle to help identify the type of bomb.
Most well-known
terrorist groups have
their own
“signatures”—characteristic
explosive
compounds,
detonators
and
even device designs. If investigators find
enough clues, “they can detect who made
this
particular
bomb,”
says
Professor
Robert Phillips, an expert in terrorism at
the University of Connecticut. “They’re
able
to
detect
even
individual
bomb-
makers’ ways of doing things, of placing
wires, of placing fuses, how they put the
whole thing together. There aren’t lots of
people in the world who do this well.” At
the top of Phillips’ suspect list are Middle
Eastern and Balkan terrorists. Says Phil-
lips: “The car bomb is very much the sig-
nature of these groups.”
A
ccording
to
inman,
the
sheer difficulty of constructing
bombs
of
this
nature
almost
rules
out an
American-made
device. “There hasn’t been a do-
mestic development of the kind
of skills that are needed for this,
as there has been in Northern
Ireland or the Middle East,” says Inman.
Outside experts liken the task of iden-
tifying the Trade Center bomb to the in-
quiry into the bombing of Pan Am Flight
103,
in which debris was scattered for
miles. Investigators in that case drew a
life-size diagram of the plane on a ware-
house floor, then set about reconstruct-
ing it piece by piece like a jigsaw puzzle.
From that they could determine where in
the plane’s body the blast occurred, be-
cause “the metal would be bent to follow
the contours of the vectors of the explo-
sion,” says Phillips.
Though the
fbi does
not yet know
whether enough evidence is left to piece
together
the
car bomb
it
believes was
there, its experts plan to move large quan-
tities of debris to a secure location and ex-
amine it with microscopic care. They will
search for tiny remnants that don’t really
belong at the scene—that are not, say, part
of a car’s headlights or dashboard. Items
as small as a bit ofwire can point to wheth-
er a timing device was used.
The whole area will also be examined
for chemical residue, which will help in
determining what kind of explosive was
used. In car bombings, bits of explosive
matter are often found in the nooks and
crannies ofwhat is left of the auto’s trunk
lid. Nitrate, traces ofwhich were found in
the Trade Center crater, is the most basic
-
..
component of most explosive mixtures.
The next step is to find traces of chemi-
cals that may be unique to a certain com-
pound,
like
potassium
or ammonium,
2003/01/17
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003900260011-0
WHO COULD HAVE DONE IT
By PRISCILLA PAINTON
THE BOMBING OF THE WORLD TRADE CENTER COULD TURN OUT TO BE THE WORK OF
none other than a psychotic, mad-as-hell American—a live version of the Holly-
wood revenge fantasy. But many aspects of the bomb, including its placement and
force, carry the mark of more sophisticated hands. Experts who study terrorists
around the world have begun to speculate about several groups:
THE BALKAN FACTIONS Of the 19 callers who took responsibility for the bomb-
ing, at least one said he spoke for an organization calling itself the Serbian Libera-
tion Front. Another claimed to represent Croatian militants. Still another called in
the name of Bosnian Muslims. The possibility of a Balkan connection was made
more tantalizing by the fact that a bomb was defused on Friday near the U.S. em-
bassy in the Croatian capital of Zagreb.
Most of the Balkan nationalities have a history of marrying politics with vio-
lence. It was the murder of Archduke Francis Ferdinand and his wife in Saraje-
vo by a Serbian youth that set off World War I. And according to a French expert
on the Balkans, Xavier Raufer, the terrorist techniques that the Palestinians and
the Lebanese made notorious in the past two decades—bombings, kidnappings,
hijackings—were virtually invented by Balkan groups. “These guys make Abu
Nidal look like Mother Teresa,
’
’ he says
.
Militants seeking independence for Croatia have struck inside the U.S. in the
past. In December 1975 Croatian nationalists were suspected of planting a bomb
in a luggage locker at La Guardia Airport, killing 11 people and injuring 75. Less
than a year later, Croats hijacked a TWA jet traveling from New York City to Chi-
cago and eventually diverted it to Paris. As part of that operation, the group also
planted a bomb at Grand Central Terminal, which killed a police officer who
tried to defuse it. In June 1980 Croatian “freedom fighters” detonated a bomb in-
side the museum at the Statue of Liberty, but no one was injured. All told, Croats
committed more than 20 acts of terror in the U.S. from 1976 through 1980.
Croatia has achieved a shaky independence since then, albeit one marred by
episodes of urban shelling by Serb guerrillas. The Croats could conceivably have
been motivated to carry out the attack hoping the Serbs would be blamed. But the
Serbs have their own reason for staging the bombing—or for doing it and hoping
the Croats would be blamed. The announcement this week that the U.S. would
soon start sending relief flights over Bosnia made it just as plausible that the blast
might be a response by Serbs to a perceived tilt against their side. Six months ago,
Serbian nationalists threatened to bomb Western’s Europe’s nuclear facilities if
its governments intervened militarily in the former Yugoslavia.
The Bosnian Muslims too have reason to play a part in the Balkan blame
game. They have been known to bomb their own people in Bosnia, hoping the
Serbs and the Croats would be held responsible and Western allies would inter-
vene on their side. But they are also angry at the Clinton Administration for re-
fusing to lift an arms embargo despite earlier pledges to do so.
PALESTINIAN FACTIONS An extremist group called Hamas has been virulently
opposed to the current Middle East peace talks, and last week’s bombing could
have been an attelnpt to torpedo the negotiations before they resume next
month. In addition, it was Hamas supporters who made up most of the 400 or so^
Palestinians whom Israel expelled late last year and who now languish in the no"
man’s-land between the Israeli and Lebanese lines.
IRAN, IRAQ, LIBYA February was the second anniversary of the U.S.-led ground
attack against Iraq; setting off a bomb at the center of America’s largest city could
have been Iraq’s way ofmarking the date. But since Clinton took office, Iraq has been
making conciliatory noises, as has another ofthe U.S.’s longtime enemies, Iran. How-
ever, there is no shortage of fundamentalist groups, including the Iranian-backed
Hizballah, that might seek to punish the nation they regard as “the Great Satan.”
RUSSIAN NATIONALISTS Long-shot culprits to be sure, Russian nationalists
who want to install a reactionary, law-and-order regime in Moscow have blamed
much
of their country’s troubles—from
corruption
to economic chaos and
crime-on Western, and mainly U.S., influence. They have stepped up their at-
tacks on Boris Yeltsin in recent months, forcing him to distance himself from
free marketeers and from his Western-oriented diplomacy. But so far he has
survived their challenges. In frustration, his enemies might have sought expres-
sion on American soil.—Reported by William Mader/London and Thomas A. Saneton/Paris
TIME, MARCH 8, 1993
Approved For Release 2003/01/17
: CIA-RDP96-00789R003900260011-0
which would
identify the explosive
far
more precisely.
Experts will also try to determine the
velocity of the shock waves emanating
from the blast. “Different compounds ex-
plode at different speeds,” says Brian Jen-
kins, senior managing director for Kroll
Associates, an international investigating
firm. “You can tell by examining the metal
that was torn apart. Was it a big explosion
that moved a lot of things, or was it a high-
velocity explosion that rent metal?” So-
phisticated
plastic
explosives
tend
to
shred metal and pulverize concrete, while
common substances like dynamite tend to
knock
walls
over
and
push
vehicles
around. Once
investigators
identify the
substance,
they
will
try
to
determine
whether it was a homemade explosive, one
made from commercially available materi-
al or a product of limited availability, like a
military-grade explosive. If the material is
common, the trail may be colder than if it
is a closely monitored substance.
I
NITIAL SPECULATION IN THIS CASE
centers upon plastic explosives like
Semtex, the lethal weapon of choice
for many
terrorists because
it
is
safe to handle and undetectable by
sniffer dogs or X-ray inspection. A
small amount hidden in a portable
radio blew Pan Am Flight 103 out of
the sky in 1988. Semtex was produced in
quantify under
the communist
govern-
ment of Czechoslovakia; while the post-
communist Czech Republic has discontin-
ued production, large quantities remain in
the hands of terrorist gangs that obtained
them illicitly. Three years ago, Czechoslo-
vak President Vaclav Havel estimated that
“world terrorism has supplies of Semtex
to last 150 years.”
Until
last week,
federal agents were
confident that terrorist groups contemplat-
ing action on American
soil would have
considerable
difficulty smuggling
in
enough high explosives to manufacture a
sizable car bomb. Could they have obtained
them in the U.S.? Although high explosives
are widely used in the construction indus-
try, they are monitored. TApJ5fiO>V®tl8pt5
r
Police cordoned off the entrance to the
bombed-out garage, where the explosion
left a gaping chasm
close
contacts
with
manufacturers
and
dealers, while sales are tightly regulated by
the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Fire-
arms. Though the Pentagon possesses
its
own
plastic explosive, a Semtex relative
called C-4, a would-be terrorist would have
to steal
it from a military facility—a theft
that would probably be detected. Other ex-
plosives might be simpler to accumulate,
however, like ammonium nitrate, an ordi-
nary component of fertEizer that has been
a favorite of the Irish Republican Army.
Experts speculate that the bomb may
have consisted of several hundred pounds
of high explosives. The bomber may have
known that because the device would be
detonated in the reinforced enclosure of a
garage, it would deliver more bang for the
buck. An enclosed area can double the
“shock
wave”
value
of
an
explosion.
“When you have a contained explosion,
the blast doesn’t vent,” says Phil Hough,
president of International Explosives Dis-
posal (USA). “Effectively the building be-
comes part of the bomb.” Says Phillips:
“The garage was the perfect location be-
cause of both the damage
to the upper
floors [with smoke] and structural dam-
age the bomb would cause at the base.”
Once more is known about the meth-
ods and materials of the bomber, federal
agencies can compare them with the de-
tails of past bombings that are stored on
its computer data base. There
is also a
massive job ahead of identifying and inter-
viewing witnesses who may have seen
something in the parking garage or the
building. And the FBI is intensifying sur-
veillance of possible terrorist groups and
foreign agents suspected of involvement
in the bombing. The bureau has also infil-
trated
potential
terrorist groups
in
this
country, as the cia has done overseas.
Those contacts can now be used to gather
leads. “You’re going to have to depend on
informants,” says former cia official Da-
vid Whipple. “And you
almost
always
Investigators will look at every possi-
ble motive, from Balkan nationalism
to
employee dissatisfaction at the Trade Cen-
ter. “You
can’t take just one
track, be-
cause you come to dead ends and you’ve
lost time,” says an fbi official. “You have
to investigate multiple tracks at the same
time.” Eventually, with luck, the pieces
start coming together. “Some of it is mis-
information, some of it is disinformation,”
says Jenkins, “and some small portion is
information. You have to sort all that out.
In the ideal situation, these paths begin to
converge. You get a chain of physical evi-
dence that takes you all the way from the
debris back to the perpetrator.”
Will the perpetrator be carrying a flag?
Says former cia Director Robert Gates:
“It’s always been a possibility that, as eth-
nic conflicts spread, the losers might try to
exact some sort of price, to attract atten-
tion
to
their cause.” But
it was by no
means certain last week that the Trade
Center bombing was an act of political ter-
rorism.
During
the
Gulf War,
a bomb
found on a chemical storage tank in Vir-
ginia instantly raised an alarm. The cul-
FteteaP^er00O@/O1/17
: ClA-RDP96-dO7t»9t|^d90O2€toO*l lfitfncssman who
TIME, MARCH 8, 1993
hoped
to make an
insurance-fraud
fire
look like the work of Iraqis.
Yet even before the answers were in
as to who had planted the bomb, a new
question—whether a season of terrorism
might begin in the U.S.—had been raised.
In
the wake
of
the
explosion, bomb
threats forced the evacuation of the Em-
pire State Building and Newark airport.
Both threats were false, but no one was
ready to dismiss the likelihood of another
assault. Around the country, airports and
other public facilities stepped up securi-
ty. The blast was a reminder of the vul-
nerability of most American office build-
ings,
shopping
malls,
airports and
railway stations. Even the U.S. govern-
ment has let
its guard down since the
mid-1980s, when American installations
were on constant alert and concrete bar-
riers were set up around many govern-
ment buildings in Washington.
“International terrorism
in
the
’80s
was
fundamentally
fueled by
the
cold
war,” says Phillips, “and you can almost
date the diminution of that terrorism with
Gorbachev’s ascension to power.” But the
end of communism has helped ignite the
fires of nationalism in regions like the Bal-
kans, emboldening other fanatical groups
to sow the kind of trouble once created by
Soviet and East bloc terrorists.
As the only remaining superpower, the
U.S. can find itself the target of resent-
ments of players on all sides who are seek-
ing American involvement or trying to
fend
it
off. Massive
cfir bombs have be-
come familiar as political weapons in the
Middle East and Europe. But it would rep-
resent a quantum leap in terrorist capabil-
ities—and brazenness—to assemble one in
the U.S. Middle East terror networks, for
one, have never shown themselves to be
capable of that or interested in doing so,
preferring to concentrate their attacks on
Westerners in Europe, where they have
found it easier to operate.
Whoever the bomber was, he made an
indelible statement. On top of the deaths
and injuries, the bomb’s damage to the
heart of New York City’s financial district
will bring heavy costs. Repairs and resto-
ration alone will cost the Port Authority as
much as $100 million, according to one es-
timate. But the disruption to business will
be even worse, because the Port Authority
will have to close the giant complex for at
least several days for structural and safety
work. The towers, which represent about
10% of all the office space in Manhattan’s
financial district, are so large that they
have two zip codes.
Perhaps the most unsettling possibili-
ty is that the hand behind the blast will
never reveal itself and never be discovered
by anyone else. Though two Libyan intelli-
gence agents were indicted in the downing
of Pan Am
103,
they have
never been
brought to trial, and no nation or group
ever came forward to take responsibility.
Just blocks from the World Trade Center,
the walls of the Morgan Guaranty Trust
Co. are still scarred from the effects of a
bomb that was hidden in a horse-drawn
wagon on Sept. 16, 1920. When it exploded
into a lunchtime crowd, 40 people died
and 200 were injured. The mystery of the
blast was never cleared up. The investiga-
tors who have begun scratching through
the rubble of the Trade Center are deter-
mined that this flash of terror will not go
unsolved.
—Reported by Edward Barnes,
Sophfronla Scott Gregory/New York and Michael
Duffy, Jay Peterzell/Washlngjon
|
f
•
TIME, MARCH 8J.993
Approved For Release 2003/01/17
: CIA-RbP96-00789R003900260011-0