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UNCLASSIFIED
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE
„
FIGURE
2.
FIGURE
3.
FIGURE
„
FIGURE
5„
FIGURE
„
FIGURE
7.
Number
o-f
Projects as
a Function
of
type
Data Categor i es
E va 1 uat i on
Sc a 1 es
Summary Data Evaluation
Sheet-—
Example
Over a 1 1
Dat a Cor r e 1 at i on
s
Overall
Averages
for
all
Project Types
Expected Results Tor Approximately 70% Data
Ac c ur ac y -
Se 1 ec t ed
Per son n e
UNCLASSIFIED
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SECRET
SUN STREAK EVALUATION
PURPOSE
a
<S/NF/SS—2)
Purpose
of
this report
is to provide an
evaluation
of
the BUN
STREAK operational
projects conducted
since
1986.
/f
/
/
'ye*#
M.. w-t
!>|
S
C £
SECRET
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I
BACKGROUND
<IJ>
?jus<y^
L\f S
Atftr-A'P/
y-
(E5/BI- /SS—2)
SUN STREAK
is
an
in-house DIA project
•for
j
developing
an operational
psychoenergetics
(i.e.,
remote viewing )
capability for
the
Intelligence Community.
Twel ve/iaDIR* bi ITets
?^a
were authorized
for DIA
in
1986 for this activity. —Personnel
|3^
from the ARMY
INSCOM CENTER LANE Project who
had' been examining
similar phenomenon were transferred
to DIA to form the SUN STREAK
core group.
DIA had earlier
(1985)
received operational
control
from HQ DA for this
6--p cr son
my unit.
'--^(S/NF/SS-2)
In
1985,
the DIA SUN STREAK Program Manager
OPM)
’prepared
an Action Plan
that#
(1)
detailed the steps
necessary to transition the CENTER LANE unit to
DIA;
(2)
identified SUN STREAK staffing
and support
needs;
and
<3>
set
forth
key programmatic requirements
for
the SUM STREAK activity.
I he Action
Plan anticipated
that
the time required
for achieving
a
p r o t a t yp e
op er at i o n a 1
c ap ab i 1 i t y
wou 1 d
b e
ap p r o x i mat e .1 y
years.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Key aspects
of
this Action
Plan,
along
with
ad d i t i on ax 1
p r oc edur a 1
i n f or mat i on ,
wer e sen t
t o
c on g ress i on a 1
committees
in
1986.
The
IC staff
was also briefed
at this time
on
t. h e
Ac t. i on
P 1 an
an d
on
an t
.i. c i p a t ed
ESUN
E!TREAK
opera t i on a 1
development
and
data evaluation procedures.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Programmatic and operational
requi remen ts
o
identified
in the Action Plan were
ton
(1)
gairT^special
fee c:: ess
,
'
program
(SAP)
status
(accomplished
in
March
” 19SW-;
(2)
qaTn'TFumfarv/ .JL
“fit approval
(grarited
in
March
1985)
;
(3)
set
up a<Jenior^.~
/
raver s i g hjF
- and
a ^fask
<£^oor
d
:i. n a t i n g ^ommi tteeTi (accompTTsRed —
though Tiot current! y "ac¥TvateaTr “< 4)
estabftsh
t i ght project
controls along with
an automated database management
and records
.
,
system
(accomplished);
and
(5)
to establish
an R/D link
for
sup p or t i ng
operat i onai
capab i 1 i ty devel op men t
( accomp 1 i shed
vi
a
HQ SUED funding
and
a DARPA
MI PR)
„
(B/NF- /SS—2)
I he R/D
link,
via SRI
International,
has
yielded
improved data evaluation procedures,
has identified
potential
personnel
selection techniques,
and has contributed to
training /development methods that
are currently
in project
use.
The activity
at
SRI
has received
and continues to receive
extensive) review by
a
9 member
peer review panel
to insure that
sc i en t i f
:i. o
r
:i. g or
i s
ma i n t a i n e d
i n
ax 1 1
t h e i r
axc t i v i t i gjs .
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LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE
1.
FIGURE
2.
FIGURE
3.
FIGURE
4.
FIGURE
5.
FIGURE
6.
FIGURE
7.
,o
Number
of projects
as
a function
of type
Data Categories
[evaluation ^scales
JY*
-ssummary ^iata evaluation
Overall
data correlations
Overall
averages
for
all
project
types
'
Example
Expected results
for approximately 70% data
accuracy
selected personnel
cJl/
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SUN STREAK EVALUATION
PURPOSE:
(S/NF/SS-2)
Purpose
of this report
is
to provide
an
evaluation
of
the SUN
STREAK operational
projects conducted
since
1986.
I
As
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2 .
E VALUAT I ON TECHN I QUES
( U >
(S/NF/SS
2)
Techniques used
for evaluating the BUN STREAK
op er at i on a J.
a n d
s :i. mu 1 at ed
op er at
:i. on a 1
d a t
ase
d ep en d
on
t In e
nature
of
the task
and type
of
project,,
&/T projects are the
most difficult
to evaluate.
This difficulty arises from the
general
complexity existing
at
most S/T target
sites,
from
P °
® i b 1 e
am b i g uous
asp ec t is
o f
k n ow n
g r oun d
t r ut h
ab out
t h e
t ar g et
s i t e
f r orn
t h e
n at ur e
o f
t In e
i n f or mat i on
d es i r ed
,
an cl
i n
a
f ew
0 ases ,
p os s i h 1 y
f r om
t In e
r emo t e view i n g
( EV )
t a r g e t i n g
me t h od
employed,,
It
is easier
to evaluate data
on
S/T targets
if
only
a
single
issue,
such
as presence
or
absence
(of
a particular
system,
for
example)
is desired,
then
it
is to evaluate how well
a viewer s
'
d et a i 1 ed
b ut
p oss i b 1 y
f r ag men t ar y
d esc r i p t i on
correlates with aspects
of
a complex
site.
In
this case
a
considerable amount
of
subjectivity can
be involved
in evaluating
t In e
d eg r ee of
d a t a
/ 1 a r g e t
c o r r e 1 at i on „
( S / NF / SB
2 )
To ass i s t
i n
r ed uc i n g over a 1 1
sub j ec t i v i t y
of
eva 1 ua t
:i. n g
c inmp 1 e x
S / T
t a r g e t s
,
t In e
v i ewer s
'
cl a t a
i s
e x am i n ed
a n d
0 omp a r ed
t o
g r oun d
1 r u t In
w i 1 1")
seve r a 1
d a t a
c a t eg o r
:i es
i n
m i n d
»
lb 0
0 at eg or i e ns
a r e
s In ow n
i n
F i g ur e
,
a n d
i n c 1 ud e
g eog r ap In i c:
descriptions,
large and
small
scale objects,
large and
small
scale functions,
personality data,
and predictive data.
Not
all
t In ase
c at (0g or i e ns
may
b e
r e 1 evan t
t o
a
sp ec i f i c
p r o j ec t
,
an d
i n
some
c ase is
may
even
b e
p ar t
of
t he
RV
t ar g e t
:i. n g
p r oc ed ur e
use
d
( e « g «
,
w hi en
a
p h o t o
of
t ar g et
b u i 1 d
:l. n g
i ns
used
a ns
an
RV
t ar g et i n q
f 0 r en e e
f or
ac
e ns ns i n g
i t ns
un k n own
c on t e n t ns
)
< S / NF / SS
2 )
A f t e r
i d e n t i f y i n g
t h e
ap p r ap r i a t e
d a t a
c: a t e g or y ,
t In 0
n 0 x t
s t ep
i s
t o
0 x am i n 0
t In 0
v i ewe r
'
r aw
( o
nsummar i z ed )
d at a
f or
c omp ar i nson
t o
k n own
o r
e is t i mat ed
eg r oun d
t r u 1
1 ")
an d
t o
ma k 0
a
b 0 ns. t
j ud g 0m0 n t
o n
w In a t
ap p r o x i ma t e
d eg r e0
of
data corral at i on. actual 1 y
ex i sts.
Fi gure
def i nes the seal
e
rat i ngns used
al ong
wi tin
tlnei r approx i mate degree
of
data
corral at i on
„
(Append! x
1 1
contai ns detai 1 ed
i n struct i on ns for
an a 1 v ns t
on ns i d 0r at i an
w In en
r ev i e w i n g
t In 0
d a t a )
„
< S/NF/SS
2 )
Fi nal
aval uat i ons and
summar i es are prepared
by
the Program Manager
and/or
his project representative
(who
is not
part
of
BUN STREAK staff
)
in conjunction
with
the responsible
flrea Analyst
or
Intel 1 igence Community point-of-
contact
«
Latest
Intel 1 igence data and reports
on
that
target
ns i 1 0
a r 0
a 1 nso
r ev
:i. 0w0 d
d u r
:i. n g
t h i s
p r oc 0s ns „
! n
s c:>me
c ase ns ,
a r ea
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Additional
data analysis
is,
of
course,
performed to determine
how close
to ground truth the data actually
was.
This may
toe
o-f
value
in understanding how to conduct
-future projects
o-f
this
n at ur e „
3.
EVALUATION RESULTS
<U)
( S/ IMF'/ SB---3 )
Overall
data correlations for
all
SUN STREAK
operational
and operational
simulation projects performed since c
/j (
\
19B& are shown
in Figure
5.
These resul t s.
were jobtai ned
by X
/)
J
averaging
the data entered
on th<^nimary jfeta feya! uat i on^lTeets
for each project primarily for
two data
categorTis"'
' (1
ar.ge
V.
scale and
small
scale object and function).
The top
lines on
the
bar charts reflect data averages obtained from the proven
or
experienced
viewers.
For some projects,
especially some
of
the
CM and
Cl
projects,
the distinction between
large scale and
small
scale
is not
clearcut;
furthermore,
this differentiation may not
be too important.
For
the predictive category and
most
of
the CM
projects,
data correlations were based mainly
on
a hit /miss
cal cul at i art „
(S/MF/SS--3)
Figure
5 indicates that,
on the average,
data
from proven SUM STREAK viewers for S/T projects
will
tend
to have
a 20 percent
to 30 percent correlation with ground truth
for
small
scale targets,
and
a 30 percent
to 50 percent correlation
with ground
truth
for
large scale target
features.
Likewise,
for
CT or CM projects,
about
20 percent
to 50 percent
of
SUM STREAK
data would be expected
to correlate with ground
truth.
Caution
must-be exercised
in
interpreting this data,
however,
since the
data Base with
known ground truth
is quite
low
in these
EajgaPr. 1
*
For
CI
and Document Reading projects,
SUM STREAK data
V0U1SL&
shows
a' 40 percent
to A0 percent correlation
level
wi th ground
^
truth!]
however
the size
of
this datafToase
is also quite
low.
The
—
Document Reading projects were,
however,
carefully isolated
and
f- c
'r>
-i- n
a
known
or designated
location.
Predictive data
of
the
complex
event type
(e.g.,
pol i ti cal /mi 1 i tary situations)
shows
a
very
low data correlation
<i.e.
,
reliability)
of
about
10 percent
or
less.
(b/NI- /SS--3)
if
all
SUM STREAK projects are averaged
together,
as shown
in Figure
6,
data correlation would range from
about
2o percent
for
small
scale aspects to about 40 percent
for
.Large scale aspects.
While
"averaging"
such data may indicate
overall
results
in
the
long
run,
such averaging
tends to washout
those results that have singular high
merit,
such
as the
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analysts and the
IC
points-o-f -contact provide written appraisals
to assist
in the
-final
evaluation process-
These evaluations are
ret: or d ed
on
su tomar y
-f or ins
an d
ar e
ma i n t a i n ed
in
the
F
i' o
y
t a
Manager 's fil es
SG1A
SG1A
SG1A
SG1C
SG1B
(S/MF/SS
eval uat i on
SG1A
The project
was completed
in June
four viewers
(2 proven
and
2 novice)
-
in this
the bracket
(
)
indicates
a best estimate
of
data
validity was made for
tha'^tjUai^^c^ategory since ground
truth
is
totally
known for^^^^^^^^l
A
"dash"
means that
data
in
the viewers'
data..
One
of
the
( # 1 0 1
)
at t emp t ed to describe the site
h months
in
t h
e
1987
and
involved
ex amp 1
e
val
not
yet
coca
category was not present
vi ewer
•f u t (..ir e -
1 n
t h 1 s
c ase,
the
Some
of
the
data categories
(i
- e.
,
geographic features,
large scale objects)
are not
important from
an
intelligence data viewpoint since they
ar e
k n own
f r om
c on ven t i on a 1
c o 1 1 e c. t i on
asse t s
v i ewer s
*
d at a
i n
t ft ese
c at eg or i es
ar e
i n c 1 ud e <J
•f or
t. h i s
p r o j ec t
s i n c e
t h ey
t en d
t o
p r <pv i d e
< as
yet
un k n own )
d e t a i 1 s
in
t h e
d at a may be
However,
the
i n
t h e
eva 1 uat i on
con fiden c e
t h at
ot h e
correct
iUO
f\f b
»€
_
.if
1 ’
<S/NF/SS-2)
A more sophisticated analysis methodology has
been recently developed
by SRI
for use
in evaluating comp 1 ex
projects,,
This
rngthodfe* main advantage
is that
it allows
"quantified
est finales to he made
-for
each
and every data element
q 0 j”j 0f
f. ed
h y
t h e J^vj! ewe r
w i t h
r esp ec t
t o
h o
l.. h
ac
!. ua 1
L a v y e t
1 sten c e an d
i mp or t an c e «
I h i s
t ec h n i q u©
i s
c ur r er
\ t
. 1
. y
b e t
\
\ g
examined
-for
use
in
the SUN STREAK program and has been applied
to
a few
projects,,
However,
it
is
a
labor
intensive technique
t h at
w i 1 1
p r ob ab 1 y
ta e used
on 1 y
f or
se 1 ec t
h i g h
i n t er est
p r o j ec t s
in
the
future,,
C 8 / NF / SS --2 )
Mos t
o f
t h e
o t
l
*i er
SUN
8TREAK
p r o j ec t
t yp es
d o
n dt
r e c:j u
:i. r e
a
c om p 1 e x
an a 1 ys i s
met h o d o 1 o g y «
F or
e x «*
1nP 1
^ u
•••
j
q
t h e
n a t u r e
o f
wh at
t yp e
o f
cl a t. a
i
i;r>
d es i r ed
< an d
a vajJLatj i 1 i
V
of
^
collection assets that
can
be cued),
most
of
tht-^t^lj,
LJjl/ or
predictive projects where ground truth
is known
can be evaluated
in
a
“black
or
white*"
manner
„
The viewers'
data,
even
if
not
ac t ed
up on
,
e i t h e r
e o r r e 1 a t. es
w i t h
t h e
sub se cj uen t
1 o c: a Lion
c .> f
'* e
f u q i t i ve or
sh i p
,
or
i t
d oes
n o t
„
Th e even t
p r ed i c: t ed
d i d
,
or
d i d
n o 1
,
h ap p en
,,
Th i.x s ,
o ve r a 1 1
r esu 1 1 s
f o r
man y
of
t h ese
projects are
si mpl y
a matter
of
count:! ng
hi ts and
mi sees.
Hi t
r at i os
or
j::) e r c en t ag es
of
h i t s / m i sse s
f or m
t h e
b as i s
of
ove i* a
.1.
d at a
c or r e 1 at i on s
rna cl e
i n
t h i s
r ep or t
t or
1 h ese
t y p
f
p r o j ec L s „
“
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identification
several
months
in advance
of
a specific area
in
the US where
a fugitive was
later
found,,
In this case,
SUN
STREAK data was not acted upon
i|
fortunately,
the fugitive was
nevertheless abducted
in this area due to the alertness
of
a
1 oc a 1
1 aw
en f or cemen t
of f i c i a 1
.
(S/NF/SS-3)
Another
way
of
considering overall
SUN STREAK
project data correlation
is to consider only the proven
viewers..
This data
is shown
in Figure
7,
for
times when these experienced
viewers received
a 2 or
2-i-
in
the numerical
ratings assigned
to
t h e i r
d at a
c o r r e 1 a t i on s .
0n 1 y two
t. yp es
o f
dat a
ar e
p r esen t ed
h er e ;
S / T ,
an d
Per son a 1 i tvQ d at. a as ob t. a i n ed
f r om
t. h e
var i ous CT
,
CM and
Cl
projects.'
For
S/T projects,
proven viewers would
be
expected
to receive
a high
(i„e„
approx
>
70 percent)
data
correlation rating
on about 20 percent
of
the S/T projects
attempted.
For Personality projects
<i.e.
,
background,
state—of—
the-heal th
,
specific activities),
around
50 percent to 60 percent
of
the projects would
yield high
results,.
Essentially,
this
^
c h ar t
i n d i c a t. es
c er t a in
st r en g t h s / wea k n esses
o f
t h e
p r esen t
S LJN
STREAK staff
and suggests that more projects on foreign
or
Cl
t ar g et
p er son a 1 i t i es
ar e
war r an t ed
.,
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Approved For Release 2000/08/08
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III FINDINGS
(U>
(S/NF/SS-3)
ft I though
th e overall
data correlations provided
in the previous! sect i
in some
instances,
have
a
low
overall
average,
the resermf are unique enough to warrant
-further
attention and continued SUN STREAK activity.,
Even
in the
lowest
reliability case
(i.e.
,
predictive)
,
identification
o-f
even one
important,
-future event
out
o-f
ten couldCjn
faetyflbe
hi ghl y<-str:
-
si gni f i cant,
for
cost
or
life saving •
These
"averages"
do not do
justice to the single unique cases that cost
little to act
upon,
in
the case
o-f
the fugitive location cited
in section
3.
< S/NF/SS-3)
Specific findings that resulted from in-depth
review
of
the entire SUN STREAK data base includes
°
Indl vl d ual s
'
p er f or man c:: e
c or r e 1 at es
w i t. h
projec t
t yp e .
~
Th i s
ob servati on
has' already assisted
in
bet
•
'ter
‘"Task SfiFsorp Vt&wk*"
matching,
and overall
data correlations would
be
ex p etrtred
"to
improve
in
the future.
°
§.y.y STREAK has
a
distinct, potent i al
for
di rect
contribution
j o
c' ortaTiii' gV"t "~_CN
and'"'"cT""'casis 7
~~ a~born
out
by
specific
instances over the past
two
years.”
Predictive data
is promising
under certain
c on d i t i ons
,
such
as near term events
or situations that do not TnvoTve
c omp 1 e x
i n t er ac t i ons.
S/T data,
though
hav l
g
proml se
f or se 1 ec t
t as ks ,
does
not
y j
tsi d
pa ametric dat a.
SUN STREAK viewers wor k
well
under
operational
stress.
It
may be that
an environment oi'opiFafbnirTtFeM
g en erat es
a
c 1 ear
an d
i mmed i a t e
n eed
..
Th i s s i t ua t. i on
seems
t. o
-foster
conditions that enables RV to function
better.
o
Obtaining highly reliable RV data and then applying
it
to
real
operational
projects
is difficult.,
However,
it
is
ev i d en t
1. h a t
carvtinued
wor k
wi t h
RV
d at a
d oes
r es u 1 1
i n
greater
insight
on how
best,
to use RV data and
on
how best
to utilize
RV talent
available.
Th us,
it
is anticipated
til™!-. Py
d at a ,J;£ty._lity will
increase as experience
of
the SUN
STREAK tea m
g
ows „
Approved For Release 2000/08/08
: CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260001-6