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drawing shown in Figure
First,
the subject correctly described
a park-
like area containing two pools
of water:
one rectangular,
60 X 89
ft
(actual
dimensions
75 X 100 ft);
the other circular,
diameter
120 ft
(actual
diameter
110 ft).
However,
as
can be seen from his drawing,
the subject
also included some elements,
such as
the tanks shown in the upper right,
that are
not present
at
the target
site.
We also note an apparent
left-
right reversal,
often observed in paranormal perception experiments.
Finally,
the subject incorrectly indicated the function of the
site as water
purification rather than recreational swimming.
Thus we observe essentially
a correct description of
certain basic elements
and patterns
coupled with
incomplete or erroneous
analysis
of function.
This
latter theme emerged as
a thread which continued throughout
our work and eventually led to uncovering
a possible relationship between
paranormal perception and cerebral functioning,
namely:
that paranormal
functioning may involve specialization characteristic of the nonanalytic
part
of the brain's
cognitive apparatus, which predominates
in spatial and
other holistic processing,
in contrast
to that
part which predominates
in
1 7—
1 g
verbal and other analytical functioning.
C.
Judging
of Results
To obtain a numerical evaluation of the accuracy of
the remote
viewing experiment,
the experimental results were subjected to independent
judging on a blind basis by an SRI
consultant
not otherwise associated with
this
series.
The response packets, which contained the nine typed unedited
transcripts
of the tape-recorded narratives and associated drawings,
were
unlabeled and presented to the
judge
in a randomly-numbered order.
Working
alone,
the
judge's task was
to visit each target location in turn and to
blind rank order,
on a scale
to
(best
to worst
match),
each of the nine
transcripts against each target, generating a
9 X 9 matrix
(see Table
1).
As
a first-order evaluation of
the matrix we consider simply the
number
of
direct matches
(ones on the diagonal),
in this
case seven out
of
nine.
The appropriate statistic is derived assuming nonindependent assign-
ment
of transcripts
to target
sites
(as
in guessing the order of
a random
sequence
of the digits
one through nine,
each used once).
The result
(seven out
of
nine correctly matched)
is
significant
at p
= 1CT 4
.
A more precise measure
of the statistical significance of the
matrix of target /transcript ratings
is given by
a direct-count-of-
permutations method of great generality.
It
is an exact calculation
method requiring
no approximations such as normality assumptions.
Further-
more,
the judging process
that went into generating the matrix
is
not required
to be independent transcript-to-transcript
nor target-to-target
.
Finally,
numerical estimates
of target/transcript correspondences
can be made on the
basis
of either rank-order or rating scales
„ (e .g .
,
rank ordering
-
n,
best
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(a)
City map
of
target
location
FIGURE
SWIMMING POOL COMPLEX AS REMOTE VIEWING TARGET
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as
Table
DISTRIBUTION OF RANKINGS ASSIGNED TO TRANSCRIPTS
ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TARGET LOCATION
(SUBJECT 1)
Note:
Transcripts blind rank ordered 1-9
(best
to worst match).
Non-differentiable
transcripts at end of rank ordering are all assigned mean of remaining
rank order numbers
„
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**••§*§
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to worst
match;
rating 0-100,
zero to complete correspondence;
arbitrary
scale rating arrived at by some complex procedure involving many factors
such as occurs
in multiple- judge voting,
etc.)
The argument
is
as
follows.
In the absence of knowledge as
to which transcript was generated
in response
to which target,
one observes
that
in setting up the matrix there
are
n\
possible ways
to label the columns
(transcripts),
given any particular
order of the rows
(targets),
and vice versa.
Thus,
there are
n[ possible
matrices which could be constructed from the raw judging data,
all
of them
equally likely a priori.
Each has
its associated sum on the
diagonal
corresponding
to a possible alignment
of targets and transcripts.
The significance
level
for the experiment
is then determined by
counting the number of possible matrices that would yield a result
(diagonal
sum)
equal
to or better
(i.e.,
lower sum of ranks in the rank-order
case,
higher sum of scores
in the
correspondence-rating case,
etc.)
than that
obtained for the matrix corresponding
to the key, and dividing by ni
This
ratio gives
the probability of obtaining by chance
a result equal
to or
better than that obtained in the actual
judging process.
The calculation method
just outlined has
in common with the
previous approach
(the direct-match statistic)
that
the various
judging
steps are not required to be independent.
It
is
more precise, however,
in that
it takes
into account measures
of transcript
quality represented
by the whole range
of rank-order numbers,
not
just
the number of direct
matches.
For
the 9X9 matrix under consideration we have by direct
count
p = 32/91
= 8.8 X icr 5
,
a result which in this
case
is essentially the
same as
that obtained by the direct-match statistic.
Finally we note,
as
an item of interest
to be discussed
later,
that in
trials
3,
4, and
6 through
9,
the subject was secured in a
double-walled copper screen Faraday cage, which provides
120-dB attenua-
tion for plane-wave radio-frequency radiation over the range
of
15 kHz
to
1 GHz.
The results
of
the
judging indicate that the use of such
shielding does
not prevent high-quality descriptions
from being obtained.
Do
Replication Series
Having completed this
initial series
of trials with SI, we
concluded that remote viewing appeared to be both a real and a robust
phenomenon.
We then carried out replication experiments with other sub-
jects
(the results
of which are given in detail in Reference
2) until we
had established a data base
of over
50 trials.
A summary tabulation of
the statistical evaluations
of these trials
(with nine subjects)
is
presented in Table
2,
Of the six studies,
involving remote viewing
of
natural targets
or laboratory apparatus,
five reached statistical sig-
nificance.
The overall results,
evaluated conservatively on the basis
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Table
SUMMARY:
REMOTE VIEWING OF LOCAL TARGETS
Subject
Number of
Experiments
p-Value
,
Rank
Order
Judging
With natural targets
SI
8.8 X 10-5
82 and
S3
(four each)
5.2 X 10“4
S4
1.7 X 10“3
S5 and S6
(four each)
0.08
(NS)
VI and V2
(three;
two)
0.033
With technology targets
S2,
S3,
S4
,
V2,
V3
0.044
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of
a
judging procedure that ignored transcript quality beyond that
necessary to rank order the data packets
(vastly underestimating
the
statistical significance of individual descriptions),
clearly indicated
the presence
of an information channel of useful
bit
rate.
The descrip-
tions
supplied by the subjects,
although containing inaccuracies,
were
sufficiently accurate
to permit the
judges
to differentiate
(blind) among
various
targets
to the degree that roughly 50% of the transcripts were
directly matched. 2
E *
Criticisms
Three major criticisms have been raised with regard to this work
We
now address each in turn.
(1)
A statistical procedure used to evaluate the
judging
matrices
in earlier publications 2" 6
has been criticized
on the basis
that
the
judge’s
rank order assignments
for a given target may not
be independent
of
hiS
assign-
ments
for other targets*
This has
been rectified
in this paper
by the use
of the direct-count-of-
permutations method
(introduced in Section C) which
does
not assume independence of assignments.
The p-values
quoted in Table
2 are therefore
the corrected ones.
As
it
turns
out,
the updated values do not
differ
significantly from the previously published ones
(compare,
for example,
Table
2 here and Table VIII
of Ref.
2), and therefore interpretations
as
to
the
significance
of
the data are unaffected.
(2)
It
has been suggested that post-trial feedback to the
subject
during an experimental
series
may provide
information to the subject which helps him to narrow
down the
field
of target possibilities
in
later trials
("closed-deck"
fallacy)* 23
The target pool was
carefully
constructed,
however,
to contain several targets
of any
given type— that
is,
several fountains,
several
churches,
several boathouses, and so forth—specifically to
circumvent
the strategy of
M
I had a fountain yesterday,
so it
can't
be
a fountain today. "
(In Ref.
see,
for
example,
fountain targets
in tables
IV and V and in
figures
7,
8,
and
15;
churches
in tables
II and
III;
boat marinas in tables
II and V and figure
14;
and so
forth).
Thus,
the
content
of
a given target,
determined
by random entry into the target pool,
is
essentially
independent
of
the
contents
of other targets
("open-
deck” design).
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(3)
The initial experimental series
of
9 trials with Subject
SI
(Section B) was
criticized on the basis that extraneous
cues in the unedited subject transcripts
might provide
additional information useful
to
judges attempting
to
blind match transcripts
to target
sites
(e.g.,
phrases
from which one might infer the temporal order of the
transcripts.)
To test
this hypothesis,
the entire data
set was turned over
to an independent researcher,
who
set himself
the task of reanalyzing the entire experiment,
taking into account
this
criticism.
To execute this
task,
he first edited the transcripts,
removing all phrases
which had been suggested as possible
cues,
together with
any additional phrases for which even the weakest post-hoc
cue argument
could be made.
He then arranged
to have the
set re-blind- judged by an individual unfamiliar with this
study.
The result:
the
same seven out
of nine were
directly matched
as
had been matched previously,
and
the direct-count-of-permutations analysis
of the matrix
yielded a result somewhat
more significant than in the
original study
(p = 8/91
= 2.2 X 1(T 5
)
.
Thus,
the
hypothesis that
the matches
in the original study were
due
to artifactual
cues was
soundly rejected,
and
the
paranormal interpretation upheld, 25
Given
(1)
the
failure
of the cueing-artifact hypothesis
to account
for the success
of
the
first
study,
(2)
the inapplicability of that hypothe-
sis to our
later replication studies
(the
judging protocols were carefully
checked prior to judging to insure absence of potential
cues),
(3)
the open-
deck strategy in target pool
design,
(4)
the refinement of the statistical
procedures without
loss
of significance,
and
(5)
the continuing successful
replication of
this work in our own and other laboratories,
the remote
viewing
data has withstood every attempt on the part of ourselves and
others over the
years
to find some alternate explanation.
Thus,
remote
viewing
continues
to be confirmed as
a viable human perceptual ability.
Prof.
Charles
T.
Tart,
Dept,
of Psychology,
University of California,
Davis
.
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IV
PHYSICS PRINCIPLES POTENTIALLY APPLICABLE TO PSI
PHENOMENA
One of the common objections
to the psi hypothesis
is that
it would
seem to be in conflict with the
laws
of physics.
In opposition to this
view, many workers
in the field are
of the opinion that the data will in
all probability be accounted for either within the framework of physics
as presently understood,
or within the framework
of extrapolations that
have been proposed to account
for other
(non-psi)
data.
The areas
of physics
put forward for consideration as potentially
relevant to modeling psi
phenomena include:
the possibility that remote
viewing
is mediated by extremely low-frequency
(ELF) electromagnetic
^
waves; 27-33
the possible significance for remote viewing
of Bell's theorem
in quantum theory which requires interconnectedness
of distant events in
a manner that
is
contrary to ordinary experience
“
(experimentally
confirmed at
the microscopic level); 37
the proper interpretation^of^the
effects
of an observer
(consciousness)
on experimental measurement,
of possible significance
in psychokinesis;
the possibility that
the
advanced-potential solutions
in physics play a role in so-called precog-
nition; 42-44
and the potential relevance
(for a general theory of
psi
phenomena)
of theories based on geometries which provide
for
a more
..
.
.
46-46
extended structure
of the space-time metric.
Although little progress has been made toward a rapprochement between
psi and physics, physicists
like ourselves are making an effort
to design
and carry out experiments which can in principle shed light
on the alterna-
tive models.
As
a conservative start,
a reasonable first hypothesis would
be that remote viewing
is mediated by extremely low-frequency
(ELF) elec-
tromagnetic waves
,
a hypothesis that
does
not seem to be categorically
ruled out by any obvious physical or biological facts.
This hypothesis,
discussed in some
detail
in a series
of papers by
I.
M. Kogan of
the Soviet Union,
suggests that
information transfer under
conditions
of sensory shielding
is mediated by ELF waves with wavelengths
in the 300 to 1000-km region. 27-30
Experimental support for the hypothesis
is
claimed on the basis
of:
less
than inverse square attenuation with
distance,
compatible both with earth-ionosphere waveguide mode trapping,
and with source-percipient distances
lying
in the induction field range
as opposed to the radiation field range;
observed low bit rates
(0.005-0.1
bits/s)
compatible with the informat ion- carrying capacity of ELF waves;
apparent
ineffectiveness
of ordinary electromagnetic shielding as an
attenuator;
and standard antenna calculations entailing biologically
generated currents
yielding results
compatible with observed signal-to-
noise ratios
.
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On the negative side with regard to a straightforward ELF inter-
pretation as
a blanket hypothesis
are:
(a) apparent high-resolution,
real-time descriptions
of remote activities
in sufficient
detail to
require
a channel capacity in all probability greater than that allowed
by a conventional modulation of an ELF signal;
(b)
lack of
a proposed
mechanism for coding
(and decoding)
the information onto the proposed
ELF carrier;
and
(c) apparent precognition data.
The hypothesis
must
nonetheless remain open at
this stage of research.
Experimentation to determine whether
the ELF hypothesis
is viable
can be carried out by the use of ELF sources
as targets
,
by the study of
parametric dependence
on propagational directions and diurnal timing,
by
experimentation under unusual conditions
of shielding
' (e.g.
, in a submarine),
by the exploration of distance and resolution
(target size) effects,
and
(in some
forms
of
the model)
by a study of differences
between the
presence and absence of
a human link who can act as
a transmitter of
the
target
.
The experiments described in the following sections were designed to
address
the above issues.
To anticipate the results,
the introduction of
factors which might
be expected to degrade performance on the basis
of an
ELF model did not
in fact appear to affect the channel deleteriously
.
V
LONG-DISTANCE REMOTE VIEWING FROM A SUBMARINE
In July of
1977 we
carried out two preliminary tests
of
remote viewing
from a submersible submerged in several hundred ft
of seawater,
approxi-
mately 500 miles from the target
site.
This provided an opportunity to
investigate the remote viewing phenomenon under conditions
of increased
distance and shielding.
The submersible used in the experiment was the Taurus,
a five-man
underwater vehicle
(see Figure
2) manufactured by International Hydro-
dynamics Company Ltd,
(HYCO)
of
Canada.
Experimental time on the Taurus
was
made available
to SRI by Mr.
Stephan Schwartz
of the Philosophical
Research Society of
Los Angeles, who,
as Director of Project Deep Quest,
had arranged for
its use
in an underwater psi archaelogy experiment
During the experimentation discussed here,
the submersible operated
submerged in the waters near Santa Catalina
Island,
off the coast of
southern California.
The goal
of the experiment was
to provide data on the possible shielding
effects
of several hundred feet
of seawater, known to be a good shield
for all
but the lowest frequencies
of the electromagnetic spectrum.
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(a)
PHOTOGRAPH
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