datamatters24/research-document-archive huggingface dataset:
Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5 Chapter Three: Research Reviews a rule out chance as an explanation. In such cases, the results are said to be statistically significant. Obviously the smaller the p-value, the more convincingly chance can be ruled out. Notice that when chance alone is at work, we erroneously find a statistically significant result about 5 percent of the time. For this reason and others, most reasonable scientists require replication of non-chance results before they are convinced that chance can be ruled out. 2.2.2 REPLICATION AND EFFECT SIZES: In the past few decades scientists have realized that true replication of experimental results should focus on the magnitude of the effect, or the effect size rather than on replication of the p-value, This is because the latter is heavily dependent on the size of the study. In a very large study, it will take only a small magnitude effect to convincingly rule out chance. In a very small study, it would take a huge effect to convincingly rule out chance. In our hypothetical sex-determination experiment, suppose 70 out of 100 births designed to be boys actually resulted in boys, for a rate of 70 percent instead of the 51 percent expected by chance. The experiment would have a p-value of 0.0001, quite convincingly ruling out chance. Now suppose someone attempted to replicate the experiment with only ten births and found 7 boys, i.e also 70 percent. The smaller experiment would have a p-value of 0. 19, and would not be statistically significant. If we were simply to focus on that issue, the result would appear to be a failure to replicate the original result, even though it achieved exactly the same 70 percent boys! In only ten births it would require 90 percent of them to be boys before chance could be ruled out. Yet the 70 percent rate is a more exact replication of the result than the 90 percent. Therefore, while p-values should be used to assess the overall evidence for a phenomenon, they should not be used to define whether or not a replication of an experimental result was "successful." Instead, a successful replication should be one that achieves an effect that is within expected statistical variability of the original result, or that achieves an even stronger effect for explainable reasons. A number of different effect size measures are in use in the social sciences, but in this report we will focus on the one used most often in remote viewing at SRI and SAIC. Because the American Institutes for Research 3-6 Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5
Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5 a Chapter Three: Research Reviews size estimates are based on a limited number of trials, so they are augmented with an interval to show the probable range of the true effect (e.g. .124+.071 indicates a range from .053 to .195), Remember that an effect size of 0 represents chance, while a positive effect size indicates positive results. TABLE 1: SAIC EXPERIMENTS LISTED BY DR. EDWIN MAY | Remote Viewing Experiments | : : 0 [ewes |S | ERD EEG investigation MCE 4.3 ASSESSING THE REMOTE VIEWING EXPERIMENTS BY HOMOGENEOUS SETS OF SESSIONS 3 7 While Table I provides an overall assessment of the results of each experiment, it does so at the expense of information about variability among viewers and types of targets. In terms of understanding the phenomenon, it is important to break the results down into units that are as homogeneous as possible in terms of procedure, individual viewer and type of target. This is American Institutes for Research 3-17 Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5
Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5 An Evaluation of the Remote Vewing Program: Research and Operational Applications | * DRAFT REPORT Prepared by: The American Institutes for Research September 22, 1995 Note: The page sequence in this document has been corrected from the original record. Approved For Release 2002/05/22 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5
Approved For Release 2003/09/16 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200190029-6 Program History Agency Fiscal Years Total Funding YYY Ta -~77 $XXXK USA XX-XX XXXK ZZZ ‘79 -'94 XXXXK Total $’s: XXXXK R&D Contractor SRI ‘74 - ‘89 SXXXXK SAIC “89 - ‘93 Total R&D contract $’s: XXXXK Approved For Release 2003/09/16 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200190029-6
Approved For Release 2003/09/16 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200190029-6 Documentation Review [Completed activities] ¢ All available contractor documents cataloged ¢ Government Star Gate documents cataloged * Summary catalog of all operational tasking ¢« Annotated bibliographies prepared for: - Contractor documents, classified, unclassified and downgraded - Star Gate government documents Approved For Release 2003/09/16 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000200190029-6
Approved For Release 2006/11/29 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000300030004-9 UNCLASSIFIED TABLE 17 SUBJECT $2 SELECTIONS ON MACHINE M1 DURING SUCCESSFUL EXPERIMENTAL SERIES (Runs 9 through 16 and 45 through 80) iw [oe [me fe [oe 51 Transitions Y To G From B R Pass Initial states All states TABLE 18 SUBJECT $2 SELECTIONS ON MACHINE M2 DURING SUCCESSFUL EXPERIMENTAL SERIES (Runs 1 through 8, 17 through 44, and 81 through 100) 125 Transitions Y To G From B R Pass Initial states All states 74 UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2006/11/29 : CIA-RDP96-00791R000300030004-9
Approved For Release 2002/05/22
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Executive Summary
•
The end users indicating that, although some accuracy was observed with regard
to broad background characteristics, the remote viewing reports failed to produce
the concrete, specific information valued in intelligence gathering.
•
The information provided was inconsistent, inaccurate with regard to specifics,
and required substantial subjective interpretation.
•
In no case had the information provided ever been used to guide intelligence
operations. Thus, Remote viewing failed to produce actionable intelligence.
Conclusions
The foregoing observations provide a compelling argument against continuation of the
program within the intelligence community.
Even though a statistically significant effect has
been observed in the laboratory,
it remains unclear whether the existence of a paranormal
phenomenon, remote viewing, has been demonstrated.
The laboratory studies do not provide
evidence regarding the sources or origins of the phenomenon, nor do they address an
important methodological issue of inter-judge reliability.
Further/even if it could be demonstrated unequivocally that a paranormal
phenomenon occurs under the conditions present in the laboratory paradigm, these conditions
have limited applicability and utility for intelligence gathering operations.
For example, the
nature of the remote viewing targets are^vastly dissimilar, as are the specific tasks required of
the remote viewers.
Most importantly,
the information provided by remote viewing is vague
and ambiguous, making
it difficult, if not impossible, for the technique to yield information of
p
ji
sufficient quality and accuracy/of infoiroatkin\for actionable intelligence.
Thus, we conclude
that continued use of remote viewing in intelligence gathering operations is not warranted.
DRAFT - American Tristituies Tor Research
Approved For Release 2002/05/22
t CIA-RDP96-00791R0002001 80005-5
Approved For Release 2003/09/16
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LIST OF TO-DO'S
5/22/95
ALL OF THE ITEMS NOTED BELOW ARE TO BE COMPLETED NLT 30 JUNE 1995
DIA SO PMO
1.
Listing of all documents transferred to CIA including
identification numbers and date of publication
(or other
information to assure unique document identification)
:
- Reports from other organizations regarding:
-
operational tasking and results
-
proficiency tasking and results
- Training reports
- Documentation regarding FOIA requests and responses
- Any other SG documents transferred.
•
Estimate of the number of linear inches of storage required
for the documents listed in Item
1.
3.
Summary list of personnel assigned to the program including
dates and duration of assignment.
4.
Summary listing of all operational tasks including tasking
date and organization and identifying those that have not or were
not numerically evaluated.
5.
Appropriate and official transfer papers to effect the
transfer of the documents noted in Items
1,
3 and
4 above to CIA
from the DIA SG PMO.
.
Prepare necessary cataloging forms to archive transferred
documents
in accordance with CIA procedures and requirements;
arrange documents and archiving forms
in CIA storage containers.
7 .
Notify CIA when the documents have been cataloged and boxed
and are available for physical transfer.
CIA
1.
Provide information regarding the procedures for archiving
the documents and the necessary forms and storage containers.
2.
Provide transportation of the boxed documents from the SG PMO
to CIA.
Approved For Release 2003/09/16
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Approved For Release 2002/05/22
: CIA-RDP96-00791R0002001 80005-5
2.
Evaluation Plan
The broad goal of the present effort was to provide a thorough and objective
evaluation of the remote viewing program.
Because of the multiple components of the
program, a multifaceted evaluation plan was devised.
As mentioned previously, only the
research and intelligence gathering components of the program were considered here.
In this
section, we describe the general approach used in evaluating these two components of the
program, beginning with the research program.
Remote Viewing Research
The Research Program.
The government-sponsored research program had three
broad objectives.
The first and primary objective was to provide scientifically compelling
evidence for the existence of the remote viewing phenomenon.
It could be argued that if
unambiguous evidence for the existence of the phenomenon cannot be provided, then there is
little reason to be concerned with
its potential applications.
The second objective of the research program was to identify causal mechanisms that
might account for or explain the observed (or inferred) phenomenon.
This objective of the
program is of some importance; an understanding of the origins of a phenomenon provides a
basis for developing potential applications.
Further,
it provides more compelling evidence for
the existence of the phenomenon (Cook & Campbell, 1979; James, Muliak, & Brett, 1982).
Thus, in conducting a thorough review, an attempt must be made to assess the success of the
program in developing an adequate explanation of the phenomenon.
The third objective of the research program was to identify techniques or procedures
that might enhance the utility of the information provided by remote viewings.
For example,
how might more specific information be obtained from viewers and what conditions set
boundaries on the accuracy of viewings?
Research along those lines is of interest primarily
because
it provides the background necessary for operational applications of the phenomenon.
The NRC provided a thorough review of the unclassified remote viewing research
through 1986.
In this review (summarized in Swets & Bjork, 1990), the nature of the
research methods led the reviewers to question whether there was indeed any effect that could
DRAFT - American Institutes for Research
”
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Page
2.
Psychological Evaluation
a.
Evaluation by Clinical Psychologist Administering Tests
-80
b.
Evaluation by Chief Clinical Psychologist
3.
Neuropsychological Evaluation
C.
Identification of Neurophysiological Correlates That Relate
to Paranormal Activity
1.
Remote Strobe Experiment
2. Mid-Experiment Monitoring of Physiological Parameters During 103
Routine Experimentation in Remote Viewing
D.
Identification of
the Nature
of Paranormal Phenomena and Energy 106
1.
Experiments with Physical Apparatus
106
a.
Experiments with Geiger Counter
106
b.
Experiments with Laser-Monitored Torsion Pendulum
107
c.
Experiments with Superconducting Differential Mag-
108
netometer
(Gradiometer)
d.
Discussion of Physical Perturbation Effects
113
2.
Discussion of Possible "Mechanisms"
in Remote Viewing
117
3.
Communication Theory Approach
to Channel Utilization
121
4.
Soviet Efforts
~
129
5.
Conclusions
130
IV
PROGRAM SUMMARY
132
REFERENCES
135
APPENDICES
A.
Remote Viewing Transcript
for Subject
S6,
Learner/Control ,
A-l
First
Experiment
_
B.
Instructions
to
Subject:
EEG Experiment
B-l
C.
Universal Randomization Protocol
C-l
ii
UNCLASSIFIED
Approved For Release 2006/1 1/29
: CIA-RDP96-00791 R000300030004-9