datamatters24/research-document-archive huggingface dataset:
DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY US ARMY ELECTRONICS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT COMMAND US ARMY ELECTRONIC WARFARE LABORATORY INTELLIGENCE MATERIEL DEVELOPMENT AND SUPPORT OFFICE FORT GEORGE G. MEADE, MARYLAND 20755 January 9, 1984 IAGPA~F-SA SRi-International 333 Ravenswood Avenue Menlo Park, California 94025 Gentlemen: (U) References: a. DELEW-I-L, Letter Order No. 18, dated 7 November 1983, dD. SRi-International Memo, dated 23 December 1983, subject: Expansion of Scope, DELEW-I-L, Letter Order No. 18, dated 7 November 1983, (u) This is Amendment No. 1 to Letter Order No. 18 (reference a) which constitutes an US Government contract for services, (S/CL-3/NOFORN) The terms of reference b are accepted. Training will be per Statement of Work ESU 83-145 with the Following change to Paragraph 2.1 from "Train THREE Army personnel..." to “Train FOUR Army personnel..." ALI other provisions of the Statement of Work and reference a remain in effect, WARNGMG NOTICE | CENTER | ANE SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM RESTRICT DISSEMINATION TO THOSE WITH VERIFIED ACCESS CATEGORY CLASSIFIED BY: CG, INSCOM DECL: OADR SECRET lease 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001500120036-5 Approved For Re NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
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rr Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R000100010001-0 pte ot wv (. * aes \ Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R000100010001-0
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SGFOIA3
# 66
:
.Eqcus vour attention now onf
aoout
tnem.
J
Ten me
+20
# 31 :
PAUSE
PAUSE
STAT
# 66
:
Are you ready for another question?
#31:
Hmmm
PAUSE
Hmmmmm.
PAUSE
+23
# 66
:
Yeah.
Move now,
over
the
site.
Move now over the
site.
.
. holding
in your mind the thought,
how can we find this site?
Concentrating on
the
thought,
how can we find this
site?
Move
over the
site and ask yourself,
how can we find
this site?
# 31 :
+25
# 66
:
PAUSE
And what
is your impression?
PAUSE
I'm working.
Drifting,
trying to find
something.
PAUSE
The name LYNCHBURG
- out of nowhere,
while
I was
looking for terrain.
All right.
Which direction from Lynchburg.
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Approved For Release 2000/08/4¥: EY RFP96-00788R001500120036-5 " SGFOIA2 Pare Le bec lade Department of the Army Civilian Intelligence Material Development and Support Office Acceptance by SRI- ~International: _ Dated: L4 foarnacr plePl eae Ao Seercrememreeceinier ete rire tt tere ttn ry tte pe reer ierenne eee SECRET | Approved For Release*9666108/08:.: CIACRD RP BAO (88R001500120036-5 | 2
rm ~~ oO 2000/08/0 -RDP96- 007.89R002200410001 -2 Approved Wet Relense 20 ewes ole recognition Experiment eta-ana TABLE 3: Significance Levels for Adjusted Sample Zédir Zpred Mean 0.43 0.79 Standard Deviation 1.42 1,25 Combined (Stouffer) z 6.69 12.39 Pz 1.93x 10"! 1.36 x 10°?” Lower 95% Confidence Estimate 0.28 0.66 Lower 99% Confidence Estimate 0.22 0.61 Lower 99.9% Confidence Estimate 0.15 0.55 Table 4 presents effect size estimates for the adjusted sample . Both the directional and predicted effect sizes remain significantly above zero. TABLE 4: Effect Sizes for Adjusted Sample LLL eS SS SSS es aS US iS ESair ESpred Mean 0.016 0.027 Standard Deviation 0.070 0.066 t(247) 3.60 6.44 pt 1.92x 107 2.4x 10° Lower 95% Confidence Limit 0.009 0.020 Lower 99% Confidence Limit 0.006 0.017 Lower 99.9% Confidence Limit 0.002 0.014 Elimination of outliers reduces the total number of investigators from 62 to 57, but the results remain basically the same when the analyses are based on investigators rather than studies. The combined (Stouffer) z’s are 7.37 for directional outcomes and 11.68 for predicted outcomes. Twenty one of the 57 investigators (36.8%) have directionally significant outcomes at the Psychophysical Research Laboratories Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2
aac eae al Se cena i i Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2 Meta-analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments 12 5% level and 30 investigators (52.6%) have significant predicted outcomes. The mean (investigator) directional effect size is 0.023 (sd = .052), and the mean predicted effect size is 0.028 (sd = .047). Both results remain above 0 on lower-bound 99.9% confidence estimates. Thus, elimination of the outliers does not substantially affect the conclusions drawn from our analysis of the database as a whole. There clearly is a nonchance effect. In the remainder of this report, we use the adjusted sample to examine covariations in magnitude of effect and a variety of methodological and other study features. Psychophysical Research Laboratories Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2
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# 43.5
#44
# 43.5
#44
# 43.5
#44
# 43.5
#44
# 43.5
#44
# 43.5
#44
# 43.5
#44
# 43.5
#44
That
is
this?
Yeah.
OK.
That's the cylinder.
It goes
in here.
It goes
in here and around,
I don't
know.
Maybe
it goes around twice and then
it comes out,
OK.
This
is supply and this
is exhaust, waste.
Waste.
OK.
Neither one of those terms
is
right.
Neither
waste nor exhaust but
it has something
to
do
with... comes from here and goes
in and
it goes
out like
that.
OK,
ok.
Don't be concerned about leaving
the area,
because you're not.
This
is all the area,
ok.
I want you
to...l want you to finish off these
two things,
though... you see... you've dead ended
them... and maybe that's
the answer .. .they've
dead ended.
Is
there anything connected to this?
To this supply area.
No.
That's where
it starts.
That's
it.
OK.
Where do the used pipes
lead
to?
Buildings.
More buildings.
I
see you got more buildings down
the end there.
Down .
.
.
Uh.
.
.
PAUSE
OK.
When you asked the question,
I got the flash
of
the word
"town."
I don't think that's right,
except that
it probably has some semblance of
being right
in
the sense
... (sigh) .. .people
,
habitation ... uh
this
is where
it winds
up.
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+55
+60
#43.5
OK.
Let me ask you one final
thing here.
You described some tulip shaped objects.
Do you remember
that?
#44
No.
I
remember
it,
yes,
but
I don't remember
where
it
is.
#43.5
OK.
Can you
locate
it?
Search
that area and
locate those objects.
#44
(Sigh) .. .inside.
. .1 don't get anything.
#43.5
OK.
Why don't we just wrap
it up
then.
You've
been going
for
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#66 #1 #66 #1 #66 #1 +25 #66 #1 466 #1 #66 Approved For Release 2000/0 88R000100120001-8 They check them in the pit, and look at them in the pit. What are the... Get the feeling of pressure in the pit when it's used. Heavy pressure at the bottom then little pressure at the top PAUSE OK. I want you to move your perspective now back up to the craps. -uP high on the crains.. they are moving on the girftérs. Tell me when you are there, I'm there. Alright. I may feel better there, too. Alright. Very good. Now I want you to move in this large cement building that you are in. I want you to move to a different area than the area that you have been describing to me. I want you to be attracted to an area that is interesting. There's a far right wall corner of the building there is glass wall and there's a a looks like a very pristine type lab behind the glass wall and there's a small... small electronics there..pieces..a Little electronics there. White..large white tables with a dishes and pieces of electronics. Has..I am impressed with..what side view is...very clean. Even the air is different there..it smells different. You can..I can see the inside of the concrete building from inside the lab. I get a feeling there's glass separating that view but I don't know if I am looking through a wall or .... Move back out into a larger concrete building. Ah, .OK And move to the area that attracts your attention. PAUSE Ory CoT JMR DF8b-WU7 88RO000100120001-8
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DP96-00788R001 5001 20036-5
pproved For Release 2000/01
DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY
US ARMY ELECTRONICS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT COMMAND
US ARMY ELECTRONIC WARFARE LABORATORY
INTELLIGENCE MATERIEL DEVELOPMENT AND SUPPORT OFFICE
f
FORT GEORGE G. MEADE, MARYLAND
20755
January
9,
1984
IAGPA-F-SA
SRI-International
333 Ravenswood Avenue
Menlo
Park,
California
94025
Gentlemen
:
(U)
References
:
a.
DELEW-I-L,
Letter Order
No.
18,
dated
7 November
1983.
D
*
SRI-International
Memo,
dated
subject:
Expansion
of
Scope
,
DEI EW-I-L
dated
7 November
1983.
'
December
1983
Letter
Order
No.
18,
(U)
This
is
Amendment
No
.
(reference
a )
which
constitutes
services
.
to
Letter
Order
No.
an
US
Government
contract
for
(S/CL-3/N0F0RN)
The
terms
of
reference
b
are
accented
Training
will
be
per
Statement
of
Work
ESU
83-145
with
the
following
change
to
paragraph
2.1
from
"Train
THREE
Armv
Crovisinns'C iL
'7.raJ
n
personnel.
.
other
ef f ect
10nS
° f
the
Statement
of
Work
and
reference
a
remain
in
Ik I^IIl
NOl ICfc.
I
LAWt
SPECIAL. ACCESS PROGRAM
RESTRICT DISSEMINATION TO THOSE
WITH VERIFIED ACCESS
CATEGORY
CLASSIFIED
BY:
DECL:
0ADR
CG,
INSC0M
SECRET
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Approved For Release 2003/09/09 A) 1h) #253 Drawing 2 is an attempt to draw a perspective of that giving a MOVFE...eereee #66: You're standing on the ground at the target now? #25: No, in the air, but above a river bed, #66: Oh, I see. You're looking up the hill to the ..e.to what you think the target is..or at least something you thought was in the target area... As. you said before, you didn't. think that the target eecoees #25: It was a general area. There was no specific thing identified as the particular target. No building. No (mumble) or anything identified as the. specific target. Anyway the concrete cinder block...I mean the building. is indicated by this X pattern on this building that I've drawn near the fence which I've drawn in the center of the page. The metal lace work became like a giant antenna that was like half a spear which I've tried to draw here in the center of the page, and I will label metal lace. And, the Xs all around that, the marks all around it, indicates there was more to it than just like I’ve drawn it here. This doesn't look like it looked to me at . the time. Elevation is indicated on the lower right. And, this target, building, or the building that I chose to report on sat on this plateau or ridge... right on top of it. And 1 just realized there's. something else that I want to draw so I'm going to stop the tape and draw that and we'll continue on. Back now again on drawing 2...the activity was perceived two ways. There was a man who was turning a bolt on a wrench which I've tried.to draw in drawing 3 which is a pretty feeble attempt to draw a wrench.. That's all I'm going to talk about drawing 3. There's also some men in polyester suits who were eel felt like were scientists. They were observing the metal area from the building and they were having a conference in the building.....some of them were. I didn't see ‘em as (mumble) guys with white coats all gathered around something that would really ‘be the classical sence of the scientist. I saw them in palyester suits which I think is strange. SECRET Approved For Release 2003/09/09 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001400230001-2
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Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R000100120001-8 #66 #1 #66 #1 #66 +10 #66 #1 #66 #1 #66 #1 #66 #1 #66 #1 #66 #1 #66 Approved For Release 20 Alright. »-eflat roof. Large gray square. OK. That's fine. Move out into the large gray square and look back at the end of the building. See opening..tunnel like..square opening....... Square opening? Alright. Study this opening very carefully. (Pause) Describe in detail this opening. .- Uh..it's got a..it's like a..some kind of: catwalks on both sides of the opening. How high? PAUSE Half-way. (not audible)......looks a big warf., What makes you say that? There's a..water and..water and catwalks going out to the water. Alright. And that's on the end of the building hum?» On the end of the concrete building. Alright. Fine. That's very good. That's very good. Describe your position of observation as you see this. A . id | Loo, Huh...stéving in water...staying in ice that's what I'm staying in. Alright. Now, very slowly, how far..first of all..how far are you from the building; as you see this? ; Uh..300 feet. Alright. Move 100 feet from the building and tell me -smove up so you are 100 feet from the building. -00788R000100120001-8
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~~ Tr I Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2 Meta-analysis of Forced-Cholce Precognition Experiments 24 eee Time Interval The interval between the subject’s response and target selection ranges from less than one second to one year. Information about the time interval is available for 145 studies. This information, however, is often imprecise. Our analysis of the relationship between precognitive effect size and time interval is therefore limited to seven broad interval categories: milliseconds, seconds, minutes, hours, days, weeks, and months. Although it is confounded with the feedback variable, there is a significant decline in precognition significance levels and effect size over increasing temporal distance. Using significance levels, ris ~.270 with 143 df (p = .001, 2-tailed). Using effect size r is—.206 (p = .013, 2-tailed). The largest effects occur over the millisecond interval (N = 31 studies, Stoufferz = 6.12, mean ES = 0.046, sd = .072). The smallest effects occur over periods ranging from a week to a month (N = 17, Stoufferz = -.36, mean ES = -0.004, sd = .032). Significance levels and effect sizes by precognitive interval are displayed in Figures 7 and 8. (The intervals are labelled numerically: 1 = msec., 2 = sec, 3 = min., 4 = hr.,5 = days, 6 = weeks, and 7 = months). Curiously, this finding results entirely from studies using unselected subjects (r123 = -.238, p = .008, 2-tailed). Studies with selected subjects show a nonsignificant positive relationship betweem ES amd time interval (rig = .081,p = .734, 2-tailed) and the difference between these two correlations is itself significant (z = 2.58, p = .01, 2-tailed). This suggests that the origin of the decline over time may be motivational rather than the result of some intrinsic physical boundary condition. The relationship between precognitive effect size and feedback also supports this conjecture. Nevertheless, any finding suggesting potential boundary conditions on the phenomenon should be vigorously pursued. Psychophysical Research Laboratories Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2
‘isa A ies i Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2 Meta-analysis of Forced-Cholce Precognition Experiments 25 FIGURE 7; Significance Level by Precognitive Interval (95% Confidence Limits.) 2.0 1.5 1.0 05 0.0 —-O0.8 —-1.0 MEAN DIRECTIONAL Z-SCORE ES G1) (21) 9) (85) —-2.0 PRECOGNITIVE INTERVAL FIGURE 8: Effect Size by Precognitive Interval (95% Confidence Limits.) 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.00 —a.02 —0.04 MEAN DIRECTONAL EFFECT SIZE —0.06 —0.08 0.10 PRECOGNITIVE INTERVAL Psychophysical Research Laboratories Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R002200410001-2
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P96-00788R001 5001 20036-5
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SGFOIA2
BR0WNL0W X
Department
of
the Army Civilian
Intelligence Material
Development
and Support Office
Approved For Release^®W®83508LS©1^0^^-^^0015001 20036-5