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SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM
SECRET
SPECIAL REPORT
SUN STREAK EVALUATION
WARNING NOTICE:
THIS MATERIAL
IS
RESTRICTED TO THOSE WITH VERIFIED
ACCESS TO SUN STREAK LEVEL
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UNCLASSIFIED
CONTENTS
PURPOSE
i
I
BACKGROUND
II EVALUATION
.
data
base
2.
evaluation techniques
3.
evaluation
results
III
FINDINGS
APPENDIX
I.
PROJECT RECORD DETAILS
II.
DETAILED
INSTRUCTIONS TO ANALYSTS/DATA REVIEWERS
UNCLASSIFIED
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SECRET
I
BACKGROUND
(U)
(S/SF/SS-2)
SUN STREAK
is
an
in-house DIA project
for dev®J-°PJJ*
an operational
psychoenergetics
(i.e.,
remote viewing)
capability
for
the
Intelligence Community.
Twelve GDIP billets
were
authorized for DIA
in
1986
for
this activity.
Personnel
from the
army
INSCOM CENTER LANE Project also had
be f
phenomenon
were transferred
to DIA to form
ormtrol
from
group.
DIA had earlier
(1985)
received operational
control
from
the DA for this
person army unit.
' (S/NF/SS-2)
In
1985,
the DIA SUN STREAK program manager prepared
an action
plan
that:
(1)
detailed the steps necessary to
transition
the CENTER LANE unit
to
DIA;
(2)
identified SUN STREA
staffing and support
needs;
and
(3)
set forth key programma
ic
requirements
for
the
SUN STREAK activity.
_
The action plan
anticipated that
time required for achieving
a prototype
operational
capability would
be approximately
years.
Key aspects
of
this action
plan along with additional
procedural
information,
were sent
to congressional
^
1986
The
IC staff
was also briefed
at
this
time
on
the action
plan’ and
an anticipated SUN STREAK operational
development
and
data evaluation procedures.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Programmatic
and operational requirement —
n
the action
plan
were
to:
(1)
fain special
access program
(SAP)
status
(accomplished
in March
1985);
(2)
gain human use approval
(granted
in March
1985);
(3)
set
up
a senior oversight and
a
task
coordinating committee
(accomplished -- though
not curreny
activated);
(4)
establish tight project controls along
with
.
automated data base management
and records system
(accomplishe
,
and
(5)
to establish
an
R/D
link
for supporting operational
capability development
(accomplished via
HQ SGRD funding and
a
DARPA MIPR)
(S/NF/SS-2)
The
R/D
link,
via SRI
^ternat;i on al
,
yiel d « d
improved data evaluation procedures,
has
identified potential
personnel
selection techniques,
and
has contributed
to.
training/development methods
that are currently
in
project
use.
The activity a^SRI
has undergone extensive review by a 9-member
peer
review panel
to
insure that scientific
rigor
is maintained.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Basic approach employed
by SUN STREAK toward
developing
a prototype operational
remote viewing
(RV)
capability
is
to
located personnel
with potential
RV capability and
t
develop these abilities via appropriate
tr a i n i ng/de ve 1 opmen
procedures.
Once satisfactory progress
is noted
on single
to
vilify training
tasks,
those
individuals
are P-sented advanced
training
and operational
simulation
targets.
P e
ic
and operational
requirements
identified
to:
(1)
fain special
access program
(SAP)
March
1985);
(2)
gain human
use approval
;
(3)
set
up
a senior oversight and
a
task
(accomplished — though
not currently
sh tight project controls along
with
an
agement
and records system
(accomplished),
R/D
link
for supporting operational
(accomplished via HQ SGRD funding and
a
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simulation
targets
are usually US military or scientific targets
where ground truth
is totally known
or
can
be readily determined
Satisfactory performance
on
these tasks would qualify an
individual
for
operational
projects
of
interest
to the
intelligence community.
In way of
the operational
projects,
however,
ground truth
is usually not known
(or
is only partially
known).
Consequently,
complete evaluation
of
the viewer
r s data
cannot
be made
until
a
later time when ground truth does become
available.
In
the
interim,
reasonable estimates
of
the overall
validity
of
the
viewer's
data
can
be made
for many of
the
operational
projects
worked,
based
on what
is generally known
or
suspected about
the
target.
These
interim evaluation results
would
be updated whenever new ground truth
is
received.
(S/NF/SS-2)
The operational
projects pursued by SUN STREAK are
approved by the
program manager and are,
in
part,
based
on
the
program manager's familarity with
IC
needs and
on solicitation
from others
within
the
IC
who have been briefed
into
the SUN
STREAK program.
(S/NF/SS-2)
The evaluation performed for
this
report covers
all
the operational
and operational
simulation projects
(approximately 200)
that
have
been worked
by SUN STREAK personne
since
1986.
However,
a
few special
operations also
involved
use
of
consultants
from the
SRI
talent
pool.
These
were only
a few
of
the
total
projects
worked,
and their results
do not alter
the
overall
evaluation presented
in this report.
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I I
EVALUATION
( U
)
1.
DATA BASE
(U)
(S/NF/SS-2)
The
SUN STREAK project maintains
an extensive
record
of
all
project activity.
Details
include
project
timing,
people
involved
i.e.,
viewers,
interviewers,
and
possibly observers)
,
and
a variety of other data considered
essential
for
good record keeping and
for evaluating project
results.
This
data,
along with project
summaries,
are
maintained
in
an automated data
base
for convenient
retrieval.
Copies
of project summaries
are also sent
to the
program manager
for
his
review.
In addition,
all
raw data
(i.e.,
sketches,
viewer's
notes)
are maintained
in
a
separate file
that
is available
for review and analysis
(Additional
project record details
are
in appendix
I).
(S/NF/SS-2)
Evaluation conducted for this
report
involved
a
complete
reexamination
of
the
entire
SUN STREAK operational
data
base.
Many of
the earlier
projects
had only been
partially evaluated,
or
not evaluated
at
all,
due
to
lack
of
suitable ground
truth.
All
projects were reevaluated at
this
time
to adjust
for new intelligence data
that
has
recently become available
for some
of
the
projects.
(S/NF/SS-2)
For
this evaluation,
the data base
was
subdivided
into
main project
types:
(1)
scientific
and
technologi cal
(S/T);
(2)
counterterrorist
(CT);
(3)
counternarcotics
(CN)
;
(4)
counter intel 1 igence
(Cl);
(5)
document contents
(Doc
Cont);
and
(6)
predictive
(pred).
Total
projects worked
for these categories
are
shown
in
figure
.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Of
the nearly 200 projects worked,
approximately one-half
cannot
be evaluated since ground
truth
is
not sufficiently known
at
this
time.
For
approximately one-fourth
of
the
projects,
ground truth
is
totally known
(or highly certain),
and for
the
other
one-
fourth,
ground truth
is only partially known
but considered
sufficient
for making
a reasonable
interim evaluation.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Some
of
these categories
can overlap.
For
example,
prediction
data
is
also
an aspect
of
most
of
the
CN,
many of
the
CT and
a few of
the S/T projects.
The
prediction category
in
figure
refers mostly to predictions
of
a
pol i t i ca 1 /mi 1 i tary nature.
Future analysis predictive
data
will
be evaluated
as
a separate aspect
of
the
various
categor i es
.
EVALUATION TECHNIQUES
( U
)
(S/NF/SS-2)
Techniques
used
for evaluating
the SUN STREAK
operational
and simulated operational
data
base depend on
the nature
of
the
task
and
type
of
project.
S/T projects
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are
the most difficult
to evaluate.
This difficulty arises
from the general
complexity existing at most S/T target
sites,
Iran possible ambiguous aspects
of
known ground truth
about
the target
site,
from the nature
of
the
information
desired,
and
in
a few cases,
possibly from the RV targeting
method employed.
It
is
easier
to evaluate data or
S/T
targets
if
only
a single
issue,
such
as presence
or absence
(of
a particular system,
for example)
is desired,
then
it
is
to evaluate how well
a viewers'
detailed but possibly
fragmentary description correlates with aspects
of
a complex
site.
In
this case
a considerable
amount
of subjectivity
can
be
involved
in evaluating
the degree
of data
/target
correlation
.
(S/NF/SS-2)
To assist
in
reducing overall
subjectivity of
evaluating complex S/T targets,
the
viewers'
data
is
examined and compared
to ground truth with several
data
categories
in
mind.
These categories
are shown
in
f i gure
,
and
include geographic descriptions,
large
and small
scale
objects,
large and small
scale functions,
personality data,
and predictive
data.
Not
all
these categories may be
relevant
to
a specific project,
and
in
some cases may even
be
part
of
the RV targeting procedure
(e.g.
,
when
a photo
of
target
building
is used
as
an
RV targeting reference
for
accessing
its unknown contents).
(S/NF/SS-2)
After
identifying
the appropriate data
category,
the next step
is
to examine
the viewers'
raw
(or
summarized)
data for
comparison
to known
or estimated ground
truth
and
to
make
a best
judgement
on
what approximate
degree
of data correlation actually exists.
Figure
defines
the scale ratings used along
with their approximate
degree
of
data correlation.
( Append i x
II contains detailed
instructions
for analyst consideration
when
reviewing the
data
)
.
SGI BD
(S/NF/SS-2)
Final
evaluations
and summaries
are
prepared by
the program manager and his project representative
((who
is
not
part
of
SUN STREAK staff)
in conjunction
with the
responsible area analyst
or
Intelligence community point—of—
contact.
Latest
intelligence
data and reports
on
that
target
site
are also reviewed during this
process.
In some
cases,
area analysts and the
IC
poi nts-of-contact provide
written appraisals
to assist
in
the final
evaluation
process.
These evaluations are recorded
on summary forms
and are maintained
in
the program manager's
files.
SGI BD
(S/NF/SS-2)
An example
of
an
S/T target evaluaiioi^^n
four
viewers
(2
proven and
novice)
.
In
this example,
the
bracket
(
)
indicates
a best estimate
was
made since ground
truth
is
not
yet totally known.
A
/
/ dash means
that
data
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SG1A
SG1A
category was not present
in
the viewers
*
data.
One
of
the
viewers
Some
of
the data categories
( i
. e
.
,
geographic features
,
large
scale
objects)
are
not
important since they are
known.
However,
they are
included
in
the data evaluation
for this
project since they tend
to provide confidence
that other
(as
yet
unknown)
details
in
the data may be
correct.
(S/NF/SS-2)
A more
sophi st i cated analysis methodology has
been recently developed by SRI
for
use
in evaluating complex
projects.
This
methods'
main advantage
is
that
it allows
quantified estimates
to
be
made
for each
and every data
element
with
respect
to both actual
target existence and
importance.
This technique
is currently being examined for
use
in
the
SUN STREAK program and has
been applied
to
a few
projects.
However,
it
is
a
labor
intensive technique
that
will
probably
be
used only for select
high
interest projects
in
the
future.
(S/NF/SS-2)
Most
of
the
other
SUN STREAK project
types
do
not require
a complex analysis
methodology.
For
example,
due
to
the
nature
of
what
type
of
data
is desired
(and
availability
of collection assets
that
can
be
cued)
,
most
of
the
CT;
CN
or predictive projects
where ground truth
is
known
can
be evaluated
in
a
"black
or
white"
manner.
The
data even
if
not
acted
upon,
either correlated with the
subsequent
location
of
the
fugitive
or
ship,
or
it
did
not.
The event predicted
did,
or
did
not,
happen.
Thus,
overall
results for many of
these projects
are simply
a matter
of
counting
hits
and misses.
Hit
ratios
or percentages
of
hits/misses
form the
basis
of
overall
data correlations
made
in
this
report
for
these
type
of
projects.
Additional
data
analysis
is
of course performed
to determine
how close
to
ground truth the data actually
was.
This
may
be
of
value
in
understanding how to conduct future search
or prediction
projects
.
.
EVALUATION RESULTS
( U
)
(S/NF/SS-3)
Overall
data correlations
for
all
SUN STREAK
operational
and operational
simulation projects performed
since
1986
are shown
in figure
.
These results
were
obtained by averaging the data entered on
the summary data
evaluation
sheets
for each project primarily for
two data
categories
(i.e,
large
scale
and small
scale).
The
top
lines
on
the
bar
charts
reflect data averages obtained from
the
proven
or experienced
viewer.
For some projects,
especially some
of
the
CN and
Cl
projects,
the distinction
between
large scale
and
small
scale
is
not clearcut
and
this
differentiation may not
be
too
important.
For
the
predictive category and
most
of
the CN data,
data
correlations
were based on
a hit/miss calculation.
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(S/NF/SS-3)
Figure
indicates
that,
on
the average,
data
from proven SUN STREAK viewers
for S/T projects
will
tend
to
per<?® nt
30 P^ent correlation
with ground
truth for small
scale targets,
and
a
30 percent
to
percent correlation with ground truth for
large scale target
features.
Likewise,
for
CT or CN projects,
about
20 pe^cfnt
to
50 percent
of SUN STREAK data would
be expected
to
correlate with ground truth.
Caution
must
be exercised
in
interpreting this data,
however,
since
the data base with
many ground truth
is quite
low.
Even though
the
data base
ctdi?**
./**
t f ° r
CI
and documen t reading projects,
SUN
STREAK data shows
a
40 percent
to 60
percent correlation
level
with ground truth
for these projects.
The document
reading projects
were,
however,
carefully isolated and
is
a
known
or designated
location.
Predictive data
of
the
complex event
type
(e.g.,
pol i t ical /mi 1 i tary situations
or
long
term)
shows
a
low data correlation
(i.e.,
reliability)
of about
10 percent
or
less.
(S/NF/SS-3)
If
all
SUN STREAK projects
are averaged
together,
as
shown
in
figure
,
data correlation
would range
from about
percent
for
small
scale aspects
to about
percent
for
large
scale
aspects.
While
’’averaging” such
data may indicate overall
results
in
the
long
run,
such
averaging tends
to washout
those results that have singular
high
merit,
such as
the identification several
months
in
advance
of
a specific area
in
the
U.S.
where
a fugitive
was
later
found.
In
this
case,
SUN STREAK data was
not acted
upon;
fortunately,
the fugitive
was abducted through other
means.
&
(S/NF/SS-3)
Another
way of considering overall
SUN STREAK
project data correlation
is
to consider only the proven
viewers.
This
data
is
shown
in figure
.
for
times
when
these experienced viewers received
a
or
2+
in
the
numerical
ratings assigned
to their data correlations.
Only
two types
of data are presented here;
S/T and personality
£
atV
La
°btf ned from the various
CT,
CN and
CI
projects,
for
s/1
projects,
proven viewers would
be expected
to
receive
a high
(i.e.
approx.
70 percent)
rating on about
percent
of the S/T projects attempted.
For personality data
(i.e.,
background,
state-of -the-heal th
,
specific
activities),
around
50 percent
to
percent
of
the projects
would yield high
results.
Essentially,
this chart
indicates
certain strengths/weaknesses
of
the present SUN STREAK staff
and suggests
more
projects
involved
in foreign
or
CI
target
personalities
are warranted.
'
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III FINDINGS
<U>
(S/NF/SS-3)
The overall
data correlations provided
in
the
previous section,
although
in some
instances
have
a
low
overall
average,
are unique enough
to warrant further
attention and continuous SUN STREAK activity.
Even
in
the
lowest reliability case
(i.e.,
predictive),
identification
of even one
important future event out
of
ten could
in fact
be highly significant
in cost
or
life saving.
There
averages also do not
do justice
for
the single unique cases
that
cost
little
to act
upon,
as
in
the case
of
the fugitive
location cited
in section
3.
(S/NF/SS-3)
Specific findings
that resulted from in-depth
review of
the entire SUN STREAK data base
include;
°
some
individuals performan ce correlates
with project
type
This observation
has already assisted
in better
task/person
matching,
and
overall
data correlations would
be
expected
to
improve
in
the
future.
°
SUN STREAK has
a distinct potential
for direct
contribution
to certain
Cl,
CN and CT cases
,
as
born
out
by
specific
instances over
the past
two years.
°
Predictive data
is promising
u nder certain conditions,
such
as near term events
or situations
that
do not
involve
complex interactions.
°
g_/T data
*
though having promise
f or
select
tasks,
does
not yield parametric
data.
~“ —
^
STREAK viewers work
well
under
oper ational
stress.
It may be that
an environment
of operational
stress
with
a
clear and
immediate need has
a crucial
focusing effect
that
enables
RV to function
better.
o
Obtaining highly reliable RV data and then applying
it
to
real
operational
projects
is difficult.
However,
it
is
evident that continued work
with RV data does result
in
greater
insight
on how best
to
use
RV data and
on
how best
to utilize
RV talent available.
Thus,
it
is anticipated
that RV data utility will
increase
as experience
of
the SUN
STREAK team grows.
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APPENDIX
I
PROJECT RECORD DETAILS
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APPENDIX
II
DETAILED
INSTRUCTIONS TO ANALYST/DATA REVIEWERS
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