-~ ME LIGENCE ons RESEARCH ~IN THE DEPARTMENT, OF STATE |
——— perenne I NTELLIGENCE INFORMATION and its analysis are key elements in the foreign policymaking process. The soundness of our foreign policy is directly dependent on the accuracy and completeness of our information and on the objectivity of our assessments. INR’s role is to ensure that these requirements are met through the teamwork of its professional staff of analysts, researchers, and technicians. To do this job successfully, INR officers must be intimately. familiar with the issues that confront U.S. foreign policy and with the capabilities of U.S. intelligence sources. They are also expected to adhere to the highest standards of clarity, conciseness, and logic in their written product, most of which is read by senior policy officials. Both domestic and Foreign Service officers who have had assignments in INR look back on their experience as intellec- tually stimulating and as an excellent vantage point from which to observe and participate in the policy process. an LEZ HUGH MONTGOMERY June 19838 iii ! |
CCURATE INFORMATION is—and traditionally has been—the lifeblood of diplomacy. But in an era of instantaneous communication, the policymaker faces the problem of how to benefit from the enor- - mous volume of information without being over- whelmed. Each day the Department of State receives thousands of telegrams and other messages from more than 200 U.S. Embassies and other posts abroad, as well as press items, courier pouch mail, and documents, including a large volume of intelligence reports, from other U.S. Government agencies. Even with this flood of information, the Depart- ment’s policymakers do not always have all the facts they need to support sound foreign policy deci- sions. Or, more commonly, policymakers lack the time personally to read and evaluate in broad perspective the information that is available and to sift out the most relevant items. To meet their needs, in 1946 the Department created a centralized unit, the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR).
INR’s Role INR has two primary responsibilities: 1. To provide raw and finished intelligence to the Department fiom the Intelligence Community,! to produce finished intelligence of its own for the Department, and to participate in writing Community-wide intelligence assessments and estimates. 2. To coordinate for the Department U.S. intelligence activities to ensure that they support U.S. foreign policy interests. In the substantive intelligence field, the focus is on timely, policy-oriented research. Through close working relationships with other officials in the Department—beginning with the Secretary, Deputy Secretary, and Under Secretaries and reaching out to all subordinate levels—INR is continuously aware of the key problems facing policy officials and adjusts its work priorities accordingly. In the coordination field, INR is in liaison with the Central Intelligence Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and other members of the Intelligence Community. It represents the Department on the National Foreign Intelligence Board (NFIB), the National Foreign Intelligence Council (NFIC), and the committees of ' Under Executive Order 12333, the Intelligence Community consists of the Central Intelligence Agency, Defense Intelligerice Agency, National Security Agency, other intelligence components of the Department ef Defense and military services, INR, ard the intelligence sections of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Department of Energy, Department of the Treasury, and Drug Enforcement Administration. They are all represented on the National Foreign Intelligence Board (NFIB), which coordinates the programs of the Intelligence Community. The Director of INR is the State Department member of NFIB.
“Intelligence” The term “intelligence” commonly has a connotation of secrecy and of the acquisition of information that was intended to be concealed. The Bureau of Intelligence and Research, as a component of the Department of State, does have access to classified information available through diplomatic channels and through U.S. intelligence agencies. But the essential definition of intelligence as a part of the foreign policy process is the col- lection and analysis of information that bears en the conduct of our foreign relations. Intelligence information, or raw intelligence, is unevaluated information, no matter how it is collected or reported. It includes press reports, foreign radio broadcasts, foreign publications, reports from our Embassies abroad, and information gathered from all intelligence agencies. INK subjects this raw intelligence to evaluation and analysis to put it into the context of ongoing U.S. national security and foreign policy concerns. It must be evaluated for accuracy and credibility; for validity and significance of content, after being collated with other data; and for its implications for U.S. in- terests. The result of this process is finished intelligence—a written or an oral report to policy and operational officers. The Bureau of Intelligence and Research relates new in- telligence information to existing facts and inferences. Some- times the structure of facts and inferences will indicate that an element is missing, much as the building of a jigsaw puzzle defines the shape of missing pieces. Sometimes the points of connection and reinforcement will establish a high proba- bility that the evidence should be read in a specific way. Some- times the analytical findings suggest future patterns or devel- opments of importance for foreign affairs or national security. Whether the information comes from documents, public statements, or second- and third-hand reports or eyewitness accounts, the results of this process of evaluation are judgments about the facts and what the future direction of events is likely to be.
the Directer of Central Intelligence which work on programs, priorities, and substantive problems in the many fields of intelligence collection and analysis. INR also prepares the Department’s senior officers for meetings of the National Security Council’s committees. Thus, INR is the organization specially assigned within the Department of State to supply intelligence information to meet policy needs, to provide a professional intelligence analyst's view of developments abroad, and to ensure that the Department both benefits from and contributes to the work- ings of the Intelligence Community. It differs from many other parts of the Community in that it has no field represent- atives to collect intelligence. Rather, for its daily briefing papers, special analyses, and other studies, INR uses informa- tion gathered by the Foreign Service, CIA, Department of Defense intelligence components, the FBI, and the Foreign Broadcast Information Service as well as information available in scholarly publications and in the press. Although INR papers are sent to other agencies represented on the National Security Council and to the NSC Staff, its output is geared to the specific needs and responsibilities of the Secretary of State and the Secretary’s principal assistants. Threefold Ceatribution INR makes three contributions to the foreign policy proc- ess. First, it handles information from all parts of the world and systematically selects and analyzes relevant material. Its analysts often have many years of experience in their specialized fields, enabling INR to undertake analyses in greater depth than otherwise would be possible. Because the Bureau is closely knit and compact, it quickly can put into focus whatever range of information, geographical and func- tional, is relevant to foreign policy questions. INR thus is 4
specially designed to give other Department bureaus a distilla- tion of the information they want, when they want it. The Bureau adds a distinctive ingredient to the viewpoints that develop within the Department concerning foreign policy issues and trends, This suggests that there must be overlap between INR and the other bureaus, which also, within their fields of responsibility, digest information. That overlap is deliberate and forms the basis for the second major INR con- tribution. In the tradition of checks and balances, the Department has felt the need for a supplier of information and interpreta- tion parallel to the historic source in the geographic and func- tional bureaus—a supplier whose view, conditioned by the par- ticular qualities of analytical work, would complement and on occasion differ from the viewpoints of bureaus whose central focus is formulation of policy. Secretary Marshall, some three decades ago when he set the framework which still shapes INR’s organization, said that this complementary and inde- pendent view was what he wanted. Succeeding Secretaries have endorsed the idea—and have found the same advantages in it. The demand in the Department for INR products shows that most officers find it useful to check their ideas against a viewpoint arrived at in an organization separate enough to render an independent judgment, but close enough to appre- ciate their problems. The outer limits of the Bureau’s activity in this field are marked by the tradition that, although INR may assess the prospective consequences of alternative U.S. policies, it does not itself formulate or recommend foreign policy in the way that the other bureaus do, nor does it design courses of action. Finally, INR concentrates in a single unit the staff work necessary to assist the Department in its relations with the Intelligence Community and all of the latter's complex 5
technological and operational processes. It is a two-way street. The Bureau, through ramified connections with the agencies that make up the Community, ensures that the Department receives all the relevant information that these agencies collect and produce. Equally important, INR acts to fulfill the Department's obligations toward the Community agencies. INR Reports INR produces reports designed to furnish intelligence in- formation and analysis to policy officers. Some of these have exclusive distribution; others are distributed widely within government and, when unclassified, outside government. Besides its regular publications, the Bureau prepares studies in the form of memoranda for senior officers, some in response to ad hoc requests for INR’s judgments, others initiated by INR. Although the Bureau undertakes many types of work, it stresses carefully drafted, succinct analytic reports that will directly assist Department policy officers in their work. It seeks to provide an independent viewpoint based on the use of all information available. Among the Bureau's regular publications are: ® The Morning Summary, prepared in collaboration with the Department’s Executive Secretariat. This daily publication is intended both to inform the Secretary of State and his prin- cipal deputies of current events and current intelligence and to supply.them with tightly drafted analyses assessing the importance of developments and trends. The first part of the Summary consists of short gist-and-comment reports based on newly available information. The second part usually consists of three one-page “essays” drafted by INR analysts. This 6
highly classified publication is also circulated to a few top officials in other foreign policy agencies. @ Regional and functional summaries, prepared by the analytical offices of INR on a daily, weekly, or biweekly basis. In mid-1983, these included African Trends, Arab-Israeli Highiights, Central American Highlights, East Asia and Pacific Weekly Highlights, Global Issues Review, Inter- American Highlights, Politico-Military Analyses, Science and Technology, and Soviet Weekly. These serial publications con- sist of short essays or brief analytical items and gists of significant intelligence reports. They are designed to keep the senior officers who follow these policy issues up-to-date in ways that minimize demands on their time. ¢ Single-subject reports published under three distinctive mastheads: Current Analyses, papers that analyze recent or ongoing events and assess prospects and implications in the next 6 months. Analysts rely primarily on current intelligence in preparing these reports. Assessments and Research, papers that assess past trends or project the course of events beyond 6 months. These reports include those for which the analyst has done substantial background or in-depth research on broader, long-range issues. Policy Assessments, papers that analyze the context or results of past policies (retrospective analyses) or that assess comparative policies or policy options. Studies in these series vary in length; may contain special- ly prepared maps, charts, and other visual aids; generally are circulated throughout the government, including U.S. missions abroad; and sometimes consist of the text or a digest-of a study done under contract by a nongovernment expert. ® Geographic studies. INR’s Office of the Geographer issues special studies on land and maritime boundaries that are important basic research tools for American and foreign cartographers.
INR Briefings and Intelligence Community Activities INR closely interacts with geographic and functional bureaus of the Department and with the other intelligence agencies. The Bureau's position as part of both the Depart- ment of State and the Intelligence Community facilitates its efforts to draft studies of direct pertinence to policy officers. Part of the Bureau’s work consists of briefings given to the policy officers. This may include the INR Director's par- ticipation in the Secretary’s regular staff meetings, INR office directors’ daily meetings with Assistant and Deputy Assistant Secretaries, and meetings of individual analysts with country directors or desk officers. INR officers comment on develop- ments and issues that have been revealed or illuminated by intelligence. They call to the attention of and discuss with policy officers any important raw intelligence reports and analysis received from other agencies. Through these con- tacts, INR officers can identify issues that should be further studied by analysts within INR or elsewhere in the Intelli- gence Community, Many INR papers are written in response to questions raised in briefings or meetings. Papers also are prompted by informa! conversations, phone calls, cables, and memoranda. INR analysts work closely with other segments of the Intelligence Community in many ways, perhaps most impor- tantly in contributing to the preparation of such interagency assessments as National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs). NIEs, coordinated among the intelligence agencies and reviewed by the NFIB, present the most senior official judg- ment of the Community on major problem areas related to foreign affairs and national security. They may deal with political, economic, and strategic issues or may focus on a single event or problem, a country, a region, or a worldwide 8
issue. At every stare, INK is involved, from helping an officer of the Department who wishes to frame a request for an NIE to the final step when the Director of INR participates on the NFIB with fellow intelligence agency heads in discussing and defining the contents of the final text. Bureau analysts par- ticipate in interagency working groups to develop terms of reference for NIFs; they often submit written or oral con- tributions; and they spend much time in interagency meetings at which draft estimates are revised and differing assessments aired prior to NFIB consideration. Bureau Organization The Bureau of Intelligence and Research is headed by a Director, who has the rank and authority of an Assistant Secretary of State (largely for historical reasons, he has a different title) assisted by four Deputy Assistant Secretaries. The INR Director participates in the regular staff meetings conducted by the Secretary and the Deputy Secretary. As the Secretary’s senior adviser on intelligence matters, the Director is responsible for representing the Department on the National Foreign Intelligence Board and in other interagency intelligence groups. The Director handles intelligence matters with appropriate elements of the NSC Staff and, with the Senior INR Deputy, leads a staff of about 320 people.? The INR staff is grouped in three major parts, each under one of the other Deputy Assistant Secretaries (see chart). ? About 200 of these are foreign affairs or intelligence analysts; the rest are clerical, administrative, and other specialist support staff. The analysts are about evenly divided between Civil Service personnel in permanent status and Foreign Service officers on 2- or 3-year assignments to the Bureau. The pur- pose of this division is to provide a balance between the INR experience of the permanent staff and the recent field experience of the Foreign Service officers.
Bureau of a Special Assistant tor Sowet and East Wes! Aftairs b Evxecutwe Assistant c Special Assistants ne | Oeputy Assistant Secretary for Coordination iL Othee of tntetigence Liason Ottice of Intotigence Coordinasion HRE Oltiee of loreitigance Resources Intelligence and Research (INR) Director of Intelligence and Research Deputy Assistant Secretary tor intelligence and Research on Caecum Due tar Oeputy Assistant Secretary for Current Analysis Olhce at Anatyss for Atnca laa OMe of Anatysis tor Inter Amoncan Atay, EAP G'uce of Analysts for East Asia ang Pace NESA Othe of Analyses for Near Cant and South Aaa SEE Office of Anaiyars tor tne Sowiet Unron and Eastern Europe WEA Ollice of Analysis tor Wosterr Europe PMA Nihce of Ponto Miltary Analysis 10 Oeputy Assistant Secretary for Assessments and Research Ollie of Long Range Assessments acd Resaaccn EC Ditce ot Eeong run, Anatyses Ortce of the Geographer Olbece ot Groval Issues Repons Coordination ang Revew Stall not Intelhgence buppoet
INR’s structure reflects its principal responsibilities (p. 2). One deputy is responsible for the Bureau’s current analysis output. A second supervises work involving longer term assessments and research, both in the Bureau and from the academic world. The third deputy guides the Bureau’s coor- dination activities relating to the other intelligence agencies’ operations abroad. Current Analysis The largest part of INR’s staff is directed by the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Current Analysis (INR/CA). Six of the seven offices in this grouping correspond to the principal geographic areas of the world: Africa (AA); Latin America (IAA); East Asia and the Pacific (EAP); the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe (SEE); Western Europe (WEA); and the Near East and South Asia (NESA). The seventh is the Office of Politico-Military Analysis (PMA). The primary function of these offices is to produce analyses of developments and issues that are, or will be, of concern to the policymaker. CA offices perform “traditional” research in that they acquire information and evaluate, store, retrieve, and use it for the benefit of their readers. They pro- duce finished intelligence in that their work is based on classified information as well as on more conventional open sources, is directed to issues of immediate or potential con- cern to policymakers, and is intended to analyze developments and not merely chronicle them. These offices are responsible for preparing the regional and other special summaries men- tioned above, for briefing senior officers, and for preparing the INR contributions to Community-wide estimates and assessments. CA analysts have a particular responsibility for comment- ing on current developments and on issues of current concern 11
to policymakers. Their special contribution is to lend perspec- tive and depth to events by putting them in a Lroader, policy- relevant context, judging whether they reflect the continua- tion or interruption of a trend, and estimating their likely future course. In practice, the boundaries between “current” analysis and other analytical work are difficult to define. An analysis of a fast-breaking situation, for example, may involve placing events in long-term perspective, and a long-range assessment may be the prerequisite to a decision on a current and even urgent issue. The common denominator is the application of specialized knowledge and technical expertise to the analysis of foreign policy situations. As substantive experts, therefore, CA analysts also under- take longer range studies and assessments. When performing in that capacity they operate under the guidance and direction of the Deputy Assistant Secretary cited next. Assessments and Research The Deputy Assistant Secretary for Assessments and Research (INR/AR) kas the primary responsibility for the Bureav’s long-range analytical studies, as noted above. In addition, this deputy directs the following offices and staffs: The Office of Long-Range Assessments and Research (LAR) prepares its own long-range assessments on selected topics, contributes on occasion to assessments prepared elsewhere in the Bureau, and commissions from contractors and consultants those which cannot be done in INR. The office also manages a program for contract research studies and conferences on issues identified by other State Department bureaus and units. Finally, LAR is the staff through which the Department discharges the Secretary of State's respon- 12
sibilities concerning the coordination of ail U.S. Government- supported research on foreign affairs. The Office of Economic Analysis (EC) produces reports for policymakers on current and longer range issues involving such international economic concerns as foreign economic policies, business cycles, trade, financial affairs, food, popula- tion, energy, and economic relations between the industrial- ized countries and the developing nations. EC uses econometric modeling to assess the effects of alternate economic policies. The Office of the Geegrapher (GE) prepares studies of policy issues associated with physical, cultural, economic, and political geography; the law of the sea; U.S. maritime issues; and international boundaries and jurisdictional problems. It produces maps for the Department and reviews maps and charts produced by other agencies to ensure consistency in : menclature and in matters of sovereignty. It represents the Department and the U.S. Government at international geographic and cartographic forums and, as appropriate, pro- vides geographic expertise to foreign governments. The Office vf Global Issues (GI) produces finished intelligence on selected transnational, regional, and globai topics. Its reports and briefings deal with political issues of importance to the United States which are raised in interna- tional forums and with such functional international issues as the political psychology of conflict, international terrorism, science and technology, narcotics, human rights and refugees, oceans, and the environment. The Reports Coordination and Review Staff (RCRS) is responsible for the management and final production of INR’s formal reports, either regular series (Current Analyses, Assessments and Research, Policy Assessments) or special publications. Its principal concerns include editorial review, typography, printing, and distribution of these reports. 13
Coordination The staff directed by the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Coordination (INR/C) functions as the focal point for other elements of the Community, other areas of the Department, and missions overseas on the conduct and direction of all U.S. intelligence collection activities having significance for foreign affairs. It coordinates the Department’s role, including the Secretary's participation, in the National Security Planning Group, which coordinates special intelligence activities and sensitive intelligence collection operations, and in the Senior Interagency Group for Intelligence, which establishes priorities and reviews intelligence and counterintelligence pro- grams. To accomplish these missions, INR/C is organized into the following components: The Office of Intelligence Liaison (IL) coordinates pro- posals for special intelligence activities. Its basic responsibility in connection with these programs is to ensure thorough con- sideration of their support of and implications for U.S. foreign policy. IL participates in briefings on intelligence matters for Department officers goirg to and returning from overseas posts. It also handles lizison with designated foreign intelli- gence representatives. The Office of Inteiligence Coordination (IC) works with the Defense Intelligence Agency and the Federal Bureau of Investigation on intelligence problems of mutual concern. It represents the Department in Community coordination of priorities for national intelligence collection and production and works with other agencies on human source collection efforts. It manages the Department’s effort to counter anti- U.S. propaganda; serves as the focal point for Foreign Service reporting plans and evaluations; coordinates the U.S. Govern- ment’s map and publications procurement abroad; represents the Department in handling defector cases; and processes 14
requests for biographic data and other Community intelligence production. The Office of Intelligence Resources (IRE) provides staff support, representation, and coordination for the Depart- ments interests in technical intelligence programs and the National Intelligence Budget. It works closely with other Com- munity agencies, concerned areas of the Department, and overseas missions in planning, deploying, and evaluating technical collection activities. Finally, it advises Department officers on the use of intelligence produced by major technical systems. Special Functions Apart from the responsibilities managed by the Deputy Assistant Secretaries for Current Analysis, Assessments and Research, and Coordination, two offices in INR serve bureauwide needs. They report directly to the Senior Deputy Assistant Secretary. The Office of the Executive Director (EX) handles for the Bureau all administrative and management activities in- cluding organization, budget and fiscal, personnel, training, security, and general administrative support services. The Executive Director represents the Bureau in these areas within the Department and the Intelligence Community. This office also manages a student intern work-study program in which a limited number of outstanding university students spend 3-4 months working as junior-level analysts in INR’s regional and functional offices. The Office of Intelligence Support (IS) is the Depart- ments center for receiving intelligence information, in both documentary and electrical form, and for processing and 15
disseminating it under requisite security safeguards, Backed up by other INR offices, most of which have space and person- nel within the center, IS assures that Department officers have speedy access to urgent intelligence items as well as appropriate INR comments and studies. IS staffs INR’s Watch Office, which is co-located with the 24-hour Operations Center in the Department’s Executive Secretariat. 16