United  States  General  Accounting  Office 
November  1987 
QAO  Report  to  Congressional  Requesters 
STRATEGIC  DEFENSE 
INITIATIVE  PROGRAM 
Status  of  Space 
Surveillance  and 
Tracking  System 
GAO/:VSrAD-88-(>I
GAO 
United  States 
General  Accounting  Office 
Washington,  D.C.  20548 
National  Security  and 
International  Affairs  Division 
B-223094 
November  10,  1987 
The  Honorable  J.  Bennett  Johnston 
The  Honorable  William  Proxmire 
United  States  Senate 
The  Strategic  Defense  Initiative  (sdi )  is  the  Department  of  Defense's  pro- 
gram to  determine  the  feasibility  of  developing  and  deploying  a  defense 
against  nuclear  ballistic  missiles.  The  program  envisions  a  layered 
defense  system  capable  of  destroying  a  nuclear  ballistic  missile  during 
any  of  its  four  phases  of  flight — boost,  post-boost,  midcourse,  or 
terminal. 
This  report  responds  to  your  request  for  information  on  the  status  of  the 
Strategic  Defense  Initiative  Organization's  (swo's)  research  on  the  Space 
Surveillance  and  Tracking  System  (ssts).  We  provided  a  more  detailed 
classified  report  to  you  on  October  29,  1987  fGAO/c-NsiAD-ss-r,). 
Background  As  currently  envisioned,  the  sdi's  layered  defense  against  ballistic  mis- 
&  siles  will  require  a  space-based  sensor  system  to  find  nuclear  warheads 
in  the  post-boost  and  midcourse  phases.  The  proposed  ssts  would 
acquire  and  track  post-boost  vehicles  and  nuclear  warheads  and  dis- 
criminate warheads  from  a  significantly  larger  quantity  of  decoys  and 
debris. 
ssts  has  four  major  functions  during  the  post-boost  and  midcourse 
phases:  to  (1 )  acquire  and  track  threat  objects.  (2)  discriminate  war- 
heads from  decoys  and  debris,  (3)  provide  target  location  information  to 
other  systems,  and  (4)  assist  in  damage  assessment  of  targets.  The  ssts 
would  also  serve  a  surveillance  role  for  the  U.S.  "space  defense"  mis- 
sion. Under  this  mission,  the  ssts  would  provide  surveillance  support  to 
U.S.  antisatellire  weapons,  warn  of  attacks  on  U.S.  satellites,  and  moni- 
tor and  catalog  all  objects  in  orbit  around  the  earth. 
To  assess  the  feasibility  of  achieving  this  space-based  surveillance  capa- 
bility, sdio  budgeted  $102.4  million  for  fiscal  years  1985  through  1987 
for  the  ssts  program,  winch  is  managed  by  the  Air  Force's  Space  Divi- 
sion. The  requested  budget  for  fiscal  year  1988  is  $170.8  million  and  for 
fiscal  year  1989.  $210.8  million,  ssts's  success  also  depends  on  several 
technology  base  programs  that  are  separately  funded  and  support  sev- 
eral other  sensor  programs  in  addition  to  the  ssts  The  fiscal  voars  I9SS 
1'nil*-  I  OAO    .\SI,\f).SS<a  Spac-Siin-.-illaiM.- ittuir  racking  S%  st. -ii,
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and  1989  budget  requests  for  these  technology  programs  are  $295.5  mil- 
lion and  $326.8  million,  respectively. 
Status  of  SSTS 
Program 
In  July  1987,  the  ssts  program  concluded  its  initial  phase  of  determining 
requirements  and  investigating  preliminary  system  concepts.  Changing 
development  approaches,  or  plans,  extended  this  initial  phase.  The  pro- 
gram could  again  be  altered  as  a  result  of  a  midcourse  sensor  study 
occurring  from  September  through  December  1987.  This  study  is  to  sup- 
port a  January  1988  sdio  decision  on  what  mix  of  sensors  is  appropriate 
to  cover  the  midcourse  in  an  initial  sdi  deployment.  The  study  is  also  to 
define  a  technology  development  path  to  a  more  capable  future  system 
and  to  identify  experiments  that  will  demonstrate  the  feasibility  of 
midcourse  surveillance  and  tracking. 
The  nrogram  has  had  three  different  development  plans  in  3  years  and 
will  have  cost  over  $  100  million  by  the  end  of  fiscal  year  1987.  The  sdio 
originally  awarded  9-month  contracts  to  three  companies,  totalling  $12 
million,  to  define  requirements  and  preliminary  concepts.  These  con- 
tracts were  extended  to  nearly  3  years  at  a  cost  of  $65  million.  Other 
program  support  costs  consumed  the  remainder  of  the  $  102.4  million. 
The  first  development  plan  was  designed  to  satisfy  a  space  defense  sur- 
veillance role  and  a  limited  initial  ballistic  missile  defense  (bmd)  surveil- 
lance role.  The  second  development  plan  called  for  increasing  the  bmd 
capability  of  the  initial  system.  This  plan  was  ultimately  judged  too 
costly  and  complex. 
The  third  and  current  plan,  effective  in  February  1987,  was  again  for  a 
limited,  initial  bmd  capability.  Under  this  plan,  contracts  for  the  defini- 
tion of  preliminary  concepts  and  mission  requirements  were  completed 
inJulvl987. 
Two  contractors  were  awarded  follow-on  contracts  in  July  1987  to 
develop  the  system  concept  and  continue  analyses  of  ssts  requirements 
as  threat,  technology,  and  architecture  evolve.  Subsequent  contract 
options  are  to  cover  the  more  costly  later  stages  of  design  and  demon- 
stration of  an  ssts  and  a  prototype  space  experiment.  Development  cost 
estimates  total  $966  million  for  fiscal  years  1988  through  1990. 
A  contract  for  subsequent  fabrication,  testing,  and  flight  of  the  space 
experiment  would  be  awarded  to  a  single  contractor.  An  estimated  cost 
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of  about  $681  million  is  being  used  until  more  reliable  estimates  for  the 
experiment  can  be  mad?. 
The  potential  exists  for  another  revision  to  the  ssts  development  plan. 
sdio  representatives  said  that  they  are  keeping  the  ssts  program  flexible 
until  they  are  able  to  sufficiently  define  the  threat,  sdi  system  require- 
ments, and  architectures,  sdio  has  not  determined  what  ssts's  role  would 
be  in  either  a  near-term  sni  system  or  in  the  fully  capable  sdi  system, 
which  sdio  proposes  to  deploy  in  phases,  sdio's  ongoing  midcourse  sensor 
study  is  to  lead  to  a  January  1988  decision  on  whether  the  architecture 
for  an  initial  sdi  deployment  would  include  an  ssts.  It  is  also  to  recom- 
mend a  technology  development  plan  for  achieving  a  more  capable 
future  system,  including  a  plan  as  to  what  space  experiments  should  be 
performed  to  support  midcourse  sensors  development. 
Status  of 
Demonstrations 
The  ssts  program  manager  is  responsible  for  demonstration  of  some 
component  technologies  and  ssts  integrated  demonstrations.  Both 
ground-based  demonstrations  and  a  space-based  demonstration  are  pro- 
posed. The  scheduled  start  of  ssts  ie.'egrated  demonstrations  has  been 
delayed  by  about  2  years.  sdio*s  program  manager  said  that  specific 
plans  as  to  what  will  be  demonstrated  are  being  developed,  now  that  the 
first  contracts  for  the  concept  development  and  technology  demonstra- 
tion program  phase  have  been  awarded 
Within  the  ssts  program,  only  ground-b:>sed  integrated  demonstrations 
are  scheduled  prior  to  the  sdi  full-scale  development  decision  in  1992. 
sdio  program  officials  said  that  they  are  also  looking  into  how  to  best 
utilize  space  experiments  scheduled  und'-r  technology  base  projects,  so 
as  to  support  ssts  data  needs. 
Status  of  Technology 
Base  Development 
The  ssts  will  require  technology  that  is  being  developed  under  other  sdi 
technology  programs  funded  and  managed  separately.  The  key  technolo- 
gies are  (1)  component  technologies  for  long-wave  infrared  sensors, 
including  optics,  detectors,  signal  processors,  and  cryogenic  coolers,  and 
(2)  technologies  for  laser  radars  and  space-based  radars. 
In  addition,  a  body  of  data  representing  how  each  sensor  type  "sees" 
various  target  and  background  "signatures"  must  be  collected  and  ana- 
lyzed. These  "phenomenology"  data  arc  important  to  the  design  of  a 
sensor's  signal  processor  hardware  and  algorithms. 
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<;.\0    \SI.\I)  SS<a  Spun*  .Siir\«-illaii(«-  an<!  '1  nicking  S>nH-in
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sdio  has  reduced  funding  for  technology  development  work  because  of 
overall  budget  constraints.  Program  officials  stated  that  technology  con- 
tracts have  been  stretched  out  or  delayed,  and  alternate,  backup  tech- 
nologies are  not  being  funded,  thus  increasing  the  risk  involved  in  a  full- 
scale  development  decision,  sdio  has  maintained  the  more  mature  tech- 
nologies in  order  to  support  an  option  for  near-term  deployment  of  the 
first  phase  of  an  sdi  system. 
Conclusions 
sdio  has  spent  $65  million  over  3  years  for  three  parallel  contractor 
efforts  to  analyze  technology,  propose  preliminary  system  concepts  and 
associated  mission  performance  and  interface  requirements,  define  data 
needs  for  sensor  design,  and  develop  preliminary  demonstration  plans. 
The  completion  of  this  contract  phase  was  delayed  by  sdio's  uncertainty 
over  ssts's  role  and  requirements  in  an  overall  system  architecture,  sdio 
had  originally  estimated  that  completing  the  first  program  phase  would 
cost  $12  million  over  9  months,  with  a  possible  extension  to  12  months. 
The  recently  convened  mkicourse  sensor  study  reflects  the  need  to  come 
to  grips  with  sdi  sensor  needs  and  architectures.  Although  sdio  and  the 
Air  Force  have  awarded  contracts  to  begin  the  ssts  program's  concept 
development  and  demonstration,  considerable  uncertainty  must  be 
resolved  by  the  Department  of  Defense  before  the  concept  and  demon- 
strations can  be  well-defined.  The  bulk  of  the  cost  and  effort  for  this 
concept  development  and  demonstration  is  contained  in  pending  con- 
tract options  that  program  officials  say  will  not  be  exercised  until  the 
midcourse  sensor  study  is  complete  and  decisions  are  reached  on  sensor 
requirements.  A  major  task  in  the  initial  months  of  these  contracts  is  to 
support  the  recently  chartered  study. 
Funding  constraints  prompted  sdio  to  cut  planned  technology  base  effort 
supporting  the  ssts  in  fiscal  years  1986  and  1987;  this  pattern  could  con- 
tinue in  the  future.  The  effect  of  these  cuts  is  to  increase  the  risk  in  a 
proposed  1992  development  decision,  unless  that  decision  is  delayed. 
Technological  risks,  as  well  as  schedule  and  cost  risks,  are  assessed  as 
high  under  the  existing  program  schedule,  according  to  program 
estimates. 
Objectives,  Scope,  and 
Methodology 
To  determine  the  cost,  schedule,  and  performance  status  of  the  ssts,  we 
reviewed  information  on  the  technological  issues  that  must  be  resolved 
before  an  effective  system  can  be  developed  and  the  approaches  used  by 
T  i if  program  office  to  resolve  these  issues.  We  reviewed  various  snio 
Pa*-  J 
«;.\0   NS1AJVSS4»1  Spac<*  Siirv«'tHaiuv  and  Tracking  System
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studies  that  identified  the  need  for  an  ss*rs-type  system  and  the  plans  for 
meeting  that  need.  We  reviewed  development  plans,  acquisition  strate- 
gies, mission  and  technical  requirements,  contracts,  and  various  other 
documents.  We  discussed  the  ssts  program  and  related  technology  base 
programs  with  appropriate  officials  at  sdio  in  Washington,  D.C.;  the  Air 
Force's  Space  Division  in  El  Segundo,  California;  the  Air  Force's  Space 
Technology  Center  in  Albuquerque,  New  Mexico;  and  the  Air  Force's 
Rome  Air  Development  Center  in  Rome,  New  Y'ork.  We  also  visited  con- 
tractors to  obtain  their  views.  Our  review  was  conducted  between  May 
1986  and  August  1987  in  accordance  with  generally  accepted  govern- 
ment auditing  standards. 
We  discussed  this  report  with  sdio  and  Air  Force  officials  and  have 
included  their  comments  where  appropriate.  As  requested,  we  did  not 
obtain  official  Department  of  Defense  comments  on  this  report. 
As  arranged  with  your  offices,  unless  you  publicly  announce  its  contents 
earlier,  we  plan  no  further  distribution  of  this  report  until  November  27. 
1987.  At  that  time  we  will  send  copies  to  the  Secretary  of  Defense,  the 
Secretaries  of  the  Air  Force  and  the  Army,  the  Director  of  sdio.  and 
other  interested  parties. 
^fZj  a-v^L    ^—   C^n^o^A^^^ 
Frank  C.  Conahan 
Assistant  Comptroller  General 
(:*»2:J80)  Patf«*  5  (,AO   \SI.\I)-SN-4»I  Spa<«-  Snr\.-il!aii< •.•  ami  Trarkinjj  S\st.-m
•  *  :^|^X.'^^f? 
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