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23 June 1975
MEMORANDUM
FOR:
See Distribution
SUBJECT:
Briefing of Church
Committee:
Quality and Utility
of Estimates on Soviet Strategic Capabilities
>5X1
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I.
Out! ine —
see annex
II.
Case Studies — These should each consist of not more than four
doublespaced pages of briefing notes, accompanied
by
a backup
discussion of the
case including relevant excerpts and documentation,
together with
illustrations recommended for use
in direct presentation
and backup.
The materials should summarize
(a)
the intelligence
problem,
(b)
the main elements of evidence and analysis,
(c)
the
USIB
findings and how they treated uncertainty and differences
of
view,
(d)
the resolution
(or, where appropriate,
the current status)
of the problem.
A.
B.
C.
D.
SA-5:
or designee.
Backfire:
SS-11
Mod
4:
or designee.
I CBM numerical
projections
*
Briefing Notes
total
of not more than
16 double-spaced pages
including
>5X 1
two of the case studies:
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: CIA-RDP84R01033R0001 001 0001 0-1
R5X'b
Approved Fc^|^lease 20034SEGREX-I
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DRAFT
SUBJECT:
Briefing of Church Committee:
Quality and Utility
of Estimates
on Soviet Strategic Capabilities
IV.
illu strations -
x 40 briefing boards,
not more
than
12 including
those selected for direct presentation on case studies:
I
Howard Stoertz,
Jr.
National
Intelligence Officer
for Strategic Programs
Approved For Releasegljpgj^jp^-: CIA-RDP84R01033R0001 001 0001 0-1
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NOT RELEASABLE TO 
FOREIGN NATIONALS 
CONTINUED CONTROL 
No, 
3 January 1961 
Cc; 
Content UNCLASSIFIED 
ner OS 2375 
cory, 
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Cuba: Fidel Castro's demand that the number of 
ee 
US Embassy p 
personnel in Havana be reduced to eleven with- 
in 48 hours climaxed his address before a mass rally on 2 
January commemcorating the second anniversary of his 
revolutionary victory. 
The Cuban Embassy in Washington . 
eleven menibers., 
Foreign delegations, including repre-/ 
sentatives of mosi Sino-Soviet bloc and Latin American 
; 
countries were present at the ceremonies, which featured a 
parade including military equipment recently purchased from 
the bloc. 
The observances took place amid strident charges 
aa 
of imminent US aggression. 
Soviet, 
Chincse Communist, Czech, and Polish embassy and trade 
mission personncl now in Cuba, number over 100 and, inad- 
. 
dition, more than 200 bloc economic and military technicians 
cce in Cuba, Seven other bloc embassies are expected shortly 
to be 
in 
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NOT RELEASABLE 10 
FOREIGN 
NATIONALS 
_. 
CONTINUED CONTROL 
20 April 1961 
SC No. 00358761 
Copy No. C Ci, 
CENTRAL 
LIGENCE 
— 
Contont UNCLASSIFIED: 
per 
‘date 
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„„ 
„ 
] 
Cuba: Anti-Castro fighters early on 19 April contisued in a 
weak defensive position in southern Las Villas province as the 
Castro regime deployed, under strong air cover, its tanks and 
artillery against them. 
All communication between insurgent 
forces in Cuba and their general headquarters outside ceased.at 
1530 cn 19 April, according to high exile sources, who added 
that vessuls offshore had offered to evacuate those remaining. 
Th survivors, however, were dispersing into the countryside 
late on 19 April. 
DN 
The regime has tightened security precautions throughout 
the country and arrests and executions have been markedly | 
stepped up. 
ANITIZED 
20 Apr 61 
DAILY BRIEF 
tt 
20 April61 
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 
page 1 
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cory NU, 
OC! NO. 6311 
4 June 1954 
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CEMERAL 
CE 
AGE 
Bigs 
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE 
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SANTTIZED CODY
LATIN AMERY CA 
Guatemalan government c 
t clains discovery of new plot 
against 21t: 
On 2 dure Guatemalan interior minister Charnaud 
fiacDonaia announced to the press that authorities had dis- 
covered the “"best-organized" plot ever hatched against the 
rovernment. 
investigzution 
was stijl in progress 
abroad.” 
\ 
Cominnts Anouncements of the discovery 
of two previous 
He refused to supply details, saying that. the 
He said that the plot 
was superior in equspaent and tochriaue to any otners, and. that 
those so far arrested were "only the vanguard of forces 
"nlots,” in April 1953 and January 1954, were followed by 
Guatemalan allegations that neighboring rovesx uments, private 
ican officials were in- 
the Guate- 
Security 
— 
American investors, and former Amer 
volved. On these occasions, and 
malon governnent threstened to 
on 21 May, | 
to the 
Council if “the attacks 2cziust Guatemala" continued. 
4 June 
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Previous reports have 
that an anneal to the 
UN might be supported by manutactuved “evidence" of United . 
Fruit Conpany or: American fpoverniaent participation in 2 
Dlot against the Arbenz administration. § | 
£4 dune 
§-4 
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CORK 
AMERICA 
10. Mexico to support OAS 
on 
| ‘emalas 
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Mexico's president Rutz Cortines told 
Ambassador White on 2 June that he fave 
a 
of the Orpanization of 
Amertean States (OAS) on the Guatemalan _ 
problem and that he had ordered the Foreirm Ministry to support 
°--7 
Washington policy “in every wry possible." Ruiz added that arranve. 
ments will be worked out b Y Yorcign Minister Padilla Nervo. 
Comment: 
Overt Mexican support of 
‘Washington potie will prob: 
Strongly Influence other hitherto un- 
to favor such an OAS meeting. 
Mexico was 
one of the countries most resisinnt to passing the anti-Communist 
resolution at the Caracas conference, end in. ‘the Voting abstained,- partly: 
on the ground that it would prepare the 1 
way for “intervention” in the 
affairs of other American governments such 2s Guatemala. 
Padilla now favors the current Washincton 
proposal for preventing; further arras shipments and Comraunist travel 
to Guatemala and for the use of “moral suasion’ to effect a chanre in 
Guatemala's 
nolicy. 
Desnite the president's oréers, 
however, he bas expresses vacasiness “bout applying other pressure 
or sanctions. 
. 
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE 
a 
15 June 1954 
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delays in Washipgtos in acting on the Randalkl Commission rec- 
* commendations will increase their govermaent's difiicultios 
| 
gp parliament, but will not prevent it from going nhead wita 
convertibility: - London still insists, however, that finan-. 
cial support and safcguards against adverse trade trends are 
necessary, . 
London TOUSFO 542, 10 June 
Guatenalan | arny 
on Connunist 
issue 
el 
Ton Guatemalan army 
have given Yresident 
Frbepz until.iS June to oust the Communists from the govern—. 
ment or be ousted himself, according to persistent 
A usually reliable source "reports that these officers are. 
eh ak 
“meeting constantiy™ to discuss their course of 
‘On’ 11 Jure, ‘according to anotkex usually reliable 
scurte, Arbenz informed a group‘of civilian officials of 
. 
- 
this army pressure and declared that his policies were 
~~. 
- “unchangeable.” 
He said that, if necessary, he would arm 
the workers ari peasants, tho "would fight for the govern-- 
Comment: the arny 
believed sti22 to have the 
.. 
capability or decisive action against the regire. 
A 
. growing number of officers realize, however, that the 6 ,000—- 
man army may not long retain this capability if the much 
Lg 
et 
‘larger. Communist-led labor and peasant groups 
suf~ 
£icient quantities of arms. 
pee 
. Last December and January poasant groups were incited 
| 
to seize numerous private properties 
in what the American 
embassy described as an effort to condition these workers to 
© 
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violent action under Communist leadership. 
The labor and 
| 
peasant groups are again beconing aggressive end are beliaved. 
» . already in possession of some arms. 
oe 
~ 
j 
Bolivia's difficult econonic 
may be eusine: 
The American embassy in La Paz reports that the Success of 
~ 
the Agricultural Diversification Program in the productian 
of corn has exceeded all expectations. 
Excess corn produc—_ 
| 
tion may be used, according to the minister of economy, 
to 
. 
extend the wheat flour supply 10 percent by the addition of 
corn flour, 
plan would save 
91,003,000 
a annually 
purchases, 
my 
™~ 
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CCI NO. 6325 
24 June 1954 
COPY NO, 
NCY 
ot». 
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were a 
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a 
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGE 
OFFICE OF CURR NT INTELLIGENCE 
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SANITIZED COPY 
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28. 
Connmunists reported planning a 
attack On . 
American Gmbassy: 
Communists in Guatemafa City clain they 
., 4. 
will attack the embassies of “unfriendly” governments in 
Guatenala City, according to a usually reliable source, 
Taey reportedly expect to seize docuzents in the Anerican 
embassy proving collaboration between the United States gov- 
ernment and Castillo Armas, leader of the opposition forces. 
.” Conment: The denarture on 19 June of the bulk of the 
army iorces usually stationed in Guatemala City has rendered 
the city vvlnerable to Comzunist-incited mob violence. 
Tae 
Communists have charged repeatedly that the United States was 
implicate¢ 
the Castillo Armas "invasion" and the American . 
embassy 
/ becone the target for Conauzist "reprisals," 
labor and youth 
‘in ‘Guatemala 
2re believed to have been armed by the government. 
* 
24 June 54. 
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Now military sovo rnment of Guatemala reportedly outlaws 
Communist Party: 
“military junta which assumed 
control of 
the Guatemalan government on 27 June has outlawed the 
Communist Party, according to ‘the Cuatemalan redio, 
as 
reported from Tegucigalpa on 28 Juve. 
The new government is 
headed by a military junta cdasisting of Colonel Carlos 
Errique Diaz, former chief of the armed forces, Colonel José 
A, Sanchez, former defense minister, and Colonel Bizego 
monzon. 
The 
Jed by Castillo Armas have denounced Diaz 
aS a usurpex and Diaz has proclained his intention to continue 
- 
military efforts against Castillo Armas, 
Howsver, discussions 
are being held in an effort to establish terms for a settle- 
ment mutually acceptable to the two groups. 
| 
Leaders 
of three of the. pro-Communist political parties 
which backed the Arbenz administration have called on their 
menbers to give united support to Diaz. 
| 
Comment: 
It would anpear ist the Guatemalan rovernment 
is atteinoting by the maneuver of ousting Arbenz and ontlawing 
the Wortzers’ “Party to remove the s ise of Communism from tho 
rovernment and thereby take fron Castillo Armas the reason for. 
his campaign. 
Most of those calling for support of tae new 
government have long pro-Communist 
There are unconfirmed resorts that the younger army 
officers are dissatisfied with the.tr ilunvirate 
may 
opportunities to unsezt Diaz. 
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29 June 
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