page_title: Hurricane Joaquin
section_title: Meteorological history
hierarchical_section_title: Hurricane Joaquin / Meteorological history
caption_attribution_description: English: Track map of Hurricane Joaquin of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. The points show the location of the storm at 6-hour intervals. The colour represents the storm's maximum sustained wind speeds as classified in the Saffir–Simpson scale (see below), and the shape of the data points represent the nature of the storm, according to the legend below. Saffir–Simpson scale Tropical depression≤38 mph≤62 km/h Category 3111–129 mph178–208 km/h Tropical storm39–73 mph63–118 km/h Category 4130–156 mph209–251 km/h Category 174–95 mph119–153 km/h Category 5≥157 mph≥252 km/h Category 296–110 mph154–177 km/h Unknown Storm type Tropical cyclone Subtropical cyclone Extratropical cyclone / Remnant low / Tropical disturbance / Monsoon depression
context_page_description: Hurricane Joaquin was a powerful tropical cyclone that devastated several districts of the Bahamas and caused damage in the Turks and Caicos Islands, parts of the Greater Antilles, and Bermuda. It was also the strongest Atlantic hurricane of non-tropical origin recorded in the satellite era. The tenth named storm, third hurricane, and second major hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, Joaquin evolved from a non-tropical low to become a tropical depression on September 28, well southwest of Bermuda. Tempered by unfavorable wind shear, the depression drifted southwestward. After becoming a tropical storm the next day, Joaquin underwent rapid intensification, reaching hurricane status on September 30 and Category 4 major hurricane strength on October 1. Meandering over the southern Bahamas, Joaquin's eye passed near or over several islands. On October 3, the hurricane weakened somewhat and accelerated to the northeast. Abrupt re-intensification ensued later that day, and Joaquin acquired sustained winds of 155 mph, just short of Category 5 strength.
  Hurricane warnings were hoisted across most of the Bahamas as the hurricane threatened the country.
context_section_description: On September 25, 2015, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring an upper-level low, accompanied by a surface trough, several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda for possible tropical cyclogenesis. The system gradually consolidated as it drifted north-northwest, acquiring a closed surface low late on September 26. Convective showers and thunderstorms steadily increased on September 27, and at 03:00 UTC on September 28 the NHC assessed the system to have become a tropical depression, situated roughly 405 mi (650 km) southwest of Bermuda. Although the depression featured a well-defined low, strong wind shear displaced convection and exposed the circulation. A ridge to the north was forecast to steer the system slowly northwest into a region of higher shear; meteorologists at the NHC initially depicted the system dissipating within 96 hours based on modeling depictions. Convection developed and persisted closer to the circulation centre throughout September 28, and early on September 29, Dvorak satellite classifications indicated the system became a tropical storm. Accordingly, it was assigned the name Joaquin, becoming the tenth named storm of the season.
  Strengthening of the mid-level ridge prompted a sudden shift in Joaquin's trajectory to the southwest, directing it towards the Bahamas. Forecasters at the NHC noted considerable uncertainty in the future of Joaquin, with forecast models depicting a wide range of possibilities. Throughout September 29, the storm steadily intensified as its circulation became embedded within deep convection and upper-level outflow became increasingly prominent. High sea surface temperatures and decreasing shear aided strengthening, and early on September 30, the storm achieved hurricane status. Rapid intensification ensued thereafter, with an eye developing within a symmetric central dense overcast. Data from aircraft reconnaissance indicated that Joaquin reached Category 3 status on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale by 03:00 UTC on October 1. Around 12:00 UTC the eye of Joaquin passed over Samana Cay, Bahamas, with winds of 130 mph (215 km/h), making it a Category 4 hurricane. Around this same time, its eye contracted from 41 to 27 mi (66 to 43 km) in diameter, representing significant intensification. At this time Joaquin was located just 15 mi (25 km) northwest of Crooked Island. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 931 mbar (hPa; 27.49 inHg) around 00:00 UTC on October 2.
  As the ridge previously steering Joaquin southwest began retreating north, the hurricane's movement slowed and shifted west, and later north, early on October 2. An eyewall replacement cycle—a process whereby a second, larger eye develops while the inner eye collapses—began that morning; its eye became increasingly ill-defined in satellite imagery. Slight weakening took place accordingly, and the hurricane passed over Rum Cay and San Salvador Island around 16:00 UTC and 21:00 UTC with winds of 125 mph (205 km/h); a pressure near 944 mbar (hPa; 27.88 inHg) was observed on San Salvador Island. An amplifying trough over the Southeastern United States enhanced southwesterly flow over Joaquin on October 3 and prompted the hurricane to accelerate northeast away from the Bahamas. Throughout the day the storm's eye became increasingly defined and re-intensification ensued. Aircraft reconnaissance found a considerably stronger system that afternoon; based on flight-level winds of 166 mph (267 km/h), it is estimated that Joaquin attained surface winds of 155 mph (250 km/h)—a high-end Category 4 hurricane—by 16:00 UTC. This made Joaquin the strongest Atlantic hurricane of non-tropical origin recorded in the satellite era.
  Shortly after peaking, the hurricane's overall structure began to deteriorate, signalling a weakening trend. On October 4 the storm curved towards the north-northeast between a large low pressure system to its west and a mid-level ridge to its east. As deep convection over its core continued to wane, Joaquin passed about 70 mi (110 km) west-northwest of Bermuda near 00:00 UTC on
caption: Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
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