page_title: Blue wall (politics)
section_title: Demise of the blue wall
hierarchical_section_title: Blue wall (politics) / Demise of the blue wall
context_page_description: "Blue wall" is a term used by political pundits to refer to 18 U.S. states and the District of Columbia that the Democratic Party consistently won in presidential elections between 1992 and 2012. George W. Bush, the only Republican president elected during this time, was able to narrowly win the electoral college in 2000 and 2004 only by winning states outside of the blue wall.
  During the 2016 presidential election many political pundits speculated that the blue wall made Hillary Clinton a heavy favorite to win the electoral college. However, Republican nominee Donald Trump was able to narrowly win victories in the three blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as an electoral vote from Maine, a fourth blue wall state. He was consequently elected president with 306 electoral votes.
  The term "red wall" is less commonly used to refer to states that Republicans have consistently won in previous election cycles. However, due to Barack Obama's significant 2008 win in the electoral college that included many previously Republican states, these states represent significantly fewer electoral votes than the blue wall.
context_section_description: The Democrats' "lock" on these states had been called into question between 2012 and 2016, as several had been competitive in recent elections, and many had Republicans currently holding elected statewide office, generally either senator or governor. Blue wall states with a Republican senator included Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine. Those with a Republican governor included Massachusetts, Maryland, and Vermont. In addition to these 18 states, three others, Iowa, New Mexico, and New Hampshire, had only voted for the Republican once in the same 6 election cycles, giving their votes to George W. Bush in either 2000 or 2004, whilst Oregon saw Bush lose by only 7,000 votes in 2000. If included in the total, the votes behind the blue wall numbered 257, just 13 short of what is needed to win. In 2016, the blue wall showed some cracks, and went down from 242 electoral votes to 195. Some in the mainstream media did, however, suspect the Democrats might lose Pennsylvania.
  Nate Silver had criticized the idea of the blue wall, pointing to a larger "red wall/red sea" of states that voted Republican from 1968 to 1988. He argued that the blue wall simply represented a "pretty good run" in elections, and that relatively minor gains in the popular vote could flip some of its states to Republican. This was seen in the 2016 election, where voters from manufacturing states traditionally behind the blue wall voted for Donald Trump, providing him the victory in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine's 2nd congressional district.
caption: States that traditionally voted blue (Democratic), but voted Republican in 2016 are marked in red. Minnesota (a historic blue wall state), was won by Democrats by only 1.5% and Maine by 3% in 2016. Additionally, a congressional district in northern Maine gave the GOP one electoral vote.