The 6-item CAPRA-S score predicted cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy

Clinical Prediction Guide The 6-item CAPRA-S score predicted cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy Punnen S, Freedland SJ, Presti JC Jr, et al. Multi-institutional validation of the CAPRA-S score to predict disease recurrence and mortality after radical prostatectomy. Eur Urol. 2013;Apr 8 [Epub ahead of print]. Clinical impact rating: F ★★★★★✩✩ Question Conclusion How well does the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical (CAPRA-S) score predict recurrence after radical prostatectomy? The 6-item Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical score predicted cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy. Methods Design: Cohort study validating a previously developed risk score (CAPRA-S) using data from the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital database with a median follow-up of 58 months. Setting: 4 US Department of Veterans Affairs medical centers. Patients: 2670 men (mean age 62 y) who had radical prostatec- tomy. Exclusion criteria were neoadjuvant treatment or missing data for calculating CAPRA-S score. Description of prediction guide: The CAPRA-S score (score range 0 to 12) included 6 variables: serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and Gleason score (0 to 3 points each), surgical margins and seminal vesicle invasion (0 to 2 points each), and extracapsular extension and lymph node involvement (0 or 1 point each). CAPRA-S score 0 to 2 = low risk for recurrence, 3 to 5 = inter- mediate risk, and ≥ 6 = high risk. Outcome: Biochemical recurrence (single PSA level > 0.2 ng/mL, 2 PSA levels of 0.2 ng/mL, or secondary treatment of an elevated postoperative PSA level) and prostate cancer mortality. Main results 34% of men had prostate cancer recurrence, and 2.3% died from prostate cancer. The CAPRA-S score predicted prostate cancer recurrence (Table) with a concordance (c)-index of 0.73; the c-index for prostate cancer mortality was 0.85. 72% of men at low risk for recurrence, 39% at intermediate risk, and 17% at high risk were progression-free at 5 years. The CAPRA-S score for predicting recurrence after radical prostatectomy* CAPRA-S score Number of patients Outcomes Progression-free (95% CI) at 3 y Progression-free (CI) at 5 y 89% (85 to 92) 82% (75 to 87) 75% (69 to 80) 69% (60 to 76) 72% (67 to 77) 64% (56 to 71) 60% (53 to 65) 49% (40 to 58) 47% (40 to 53) 37% (28 to 45) 38% (30 to 45) 27% (18 to 37) 33% (24 to 42) 30% (20 to 40) 18% (10 to 27) 18% (10 to 27) 12% (5 to 24) 7.2% (3 to 15) *CAPRA-S = Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical; CI defined in Glossary. Sources of funding: US Department of Veterans Affairs; US Department of Defense; Prostate Cancer Research Program; NIH Specialized Programs of Research Excellence; Georgia Cancer Coalition; American Urological Association Foundation/Astellas Rising Star in Urology Award. For correspondence: Dr. M.R. Cooperberg, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA. E-mail mcooperberg@urology.ucsf.edu. ■ Commentary Radical prostatectomy is an established treatment method for clinically localized prostate cancer. Although widely overused in patients with low- and very low-risk prostate cancer, it may also be underutilized in patients with higher-risk disease. After sur- gery, a subset of men face impairment of their urinary and sexual function–related quality of life; however, all contend with the risk for cancer recurrence, which ultimately affects approximately one third of men—a risk that this study seeks to better define. The validation study by Punnen and colleagues reports favorable performance of the CAPRA-S model in predicting risk for bio- chemical recurrence in a separate cohort of veteran patients. The model’s strength lies in its straightforward use, building on such readily available predictor variables as preoperative PSA level, Gleason score, and margin status. On these grounds, it compares favorably with other models. The study has several shortcomings. Follow-up was short, consid- ering that appropriate patient selection for local treatment with curative intent today implies an estimated life expectancy of 10 to 15 years (1). The event rate was low, as reflected in the wide con- fidence intervals around the point estimates at 5 years. Finally, the focus on biochemical recurrence as the main outcome is a limitation: Detectable and rising PSA levels after radical prosta- tectomy are only surrogate markers for outcomes that should con- cern patients, such as disease-specific survival or clinical signs and symptoms associated with local or distant recurrence. Although data were available for disease-specific survival, they are based on few events. Extended follow-up will strengthen the value of the CAPRA-S scoring system. In light of the prolonged intervals from prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment to disease-related complications and death, the answers to these kinds of clinical questions have to come from observational studies, such as that by Punnen and colleagues. Philipp Dahm, MD, MHSc University of Florida, College of Medicine and Malcom Randall Veterans Administrations Affairs Medical Center Gainesville, Florida, USA Reference 1. Wilt TJ, Brawer MK, Jones KM, et al; Prostate Cancer Intervention versus Observation Trial (PIVOT) Study Group. Radical prostatectomy versus observation for localized prostate cancer. N Engl J Med. 2012;367: 19 November 2013 | ACP Journal Club | Volume 159 • Number 10 Downloaded From: http://annals.org/ by a Univ of California San Francisco User on 06/28/2016 © 2013 American College of Physicians JC13