Predicting the Timing of Separation and Marital Satisfaction: An Eight‐Year Prospective Longitudinal Study

Information from the growth curves (initial level and rate of change) for individual differences variables over the first 4 years of marriage was used to predict the timing of physical separation over the first 8 years of marriage and the level of marital satisfaction at the eighth year of marriage for an initial sample of 522 married couples. Overall, findings indicated that both initial level and change were needed to account for variability in each marital outcome. There was no evidence that information from wives' growth curves was sufficient to predict either marital outcome. Key Words: divorce, growth curve analysis, longitudinal studies, marital satisfaction, separation. In light of evidence that marital satisfaction is one of the best single predictors of overall life satisfaction (e.g., Glenn & Weaver, 1981) and that nearly half of all marriages end in divorce (National Center for Health Statistics, 1991), there has been considerable interest in identifying what variables predict marital distress (e.g., see review by Karney & Bradbury, 1995). Because marital satisfaction and marital stability have been studied as separate outcomes, distinct literatures have evolved that address either the nature and correlates of marital quality (e.g., Glenn, 1990) or the determinants and consequences of divorce (Kitson & Morgan, 1990; White, 1990). Recently, however, researchers have integrated these two research traditions by determining in the context of the same study which variables at the start of a marriage predict marital stability as well as later levels of marital satisfaction. Obtaining information from couples at the beginning of the marriage is critical for understanding the processes related to later marital outcomes, because the risk of marital distress varies by duration of the marriage, with about 30% of divorces occurring within the first 4 years of marriage (Clarke, 1995a). A common strategy employed in this integrative approach is to obtain information from both spouses at the beginning of their marriage, to determine at a single follow-up assessment whether the marriage is stable or each spouse's level of satisfaction with the marriage, and then to examine which variables measured at the beginning of the marriage predict status at the follow-up assessment. Previous work has examined the predictive utility of personality variables, partner interactions, and appraisals of the marriage. Bentler and Newcomb (1978) administered personality questionnaires to 162 newlywed couples, not all of whom were in first marriages. Four years later, 53 of these couples were still married, and 24 had separated or divorced. These authors found that relative to spouses in divorced couples, those who remained married were more homogamous on personality traits and that wives' personality traits were more frequently predictive of later marital quality than were husbands' traits. Kelly and Conley (1987) had data in which five acquaintances rated the personality characteristics of each spouse from 249 couples engaged to be married (almost all in first marriages). Forty-six years later, 110 couples were happily married, 17 were unhappily married, and 50 had divorced. These authors found that husbands from both the unhappily married and divorced groups were higher in neuroticism than husbands from the happily married group and that wives from the divorced group were higher in neuroticism than wives from either of the two married groups. In the first study of partner interactions, Gottman, Coan, Carrere, and Swanson (1998) videotaped husbands and wives from 130 first-married newlywed couples discussing a problem in their marriage for 15 minutes. Six years later, they identified 17 divorced couples, 20 happily married couples, and 20 unhappily married couples. They found that the frequency of positive affect (e.g., interest, excitement, affection, and humor) summed over spouses displayed during the interaction was the only variable that predicted both stability and happiness. …