UNDER WAY AND HERE TO STAY PARTY REALIGNMENT IN THE 1980s

In recent years, the Republican party has sharply narrowed the Democratic edge in overall party identification. Using New York Times/CBS News surveys (1980-1986) and earlier NES/CPS surveys, this analysis probes several explanations for that partisan change: generational replacement, conversion, and mobilization. The findings rule out conversion, give some support to mobilization, but emphasize the historically unique surge toward the GOP among the young since 1980. This break with the parental partisan legacy signals the prospect of a party realignment through generational replacement. Ever since Eisenhower's presidential campaign conquered the White House, the emergence of a Republican majority in the American electorate has been the object of much speculation. Some observers have eagerly prophesied that prospect, but others have shrugged it off as wishful thinking. Each new Republican conquest or successful defense of the White House revives the speculation, while electoral analysts sort out the evidence pro and con. That a party realignment is overdue, many would agree, but that one is actually under way, and that whatever is under way is here to stay, many would dispute. There is no denying that over the last three decades Republicans have done exceedingly well in winning presidential elections. Although, for the most part, they faced a Congress controlled by the other party, they could often rely on enough conservative members of Congress to govern effectively. In that sense, a party realignment may have long been consummated, but that it is not the same as saying that the Republican party has displaced the Democrats as the favorite of the American electorate. HELMUT NORPOTH is a Professor of Political Science at the State University of New York, Stony Brook. A note of thanks goes to the New York Times and CBS News for making available the data for this study. The research presented here has greatly benefited from discussions with Paul Allen Beck, George Bishop, Thad Brown, Adam Clymer, Shanto Iyengar, John Petrocik, Martin Plissner, Fred Steeper, and from a joint project with Barbara Farah. An earlier version of this article was presented at the 41st annual meeting of AAPOR in St. Petersburg, May 14-19, 1986. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 51:376-391 ?) 1987 by the Amencan Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/87/0051-00/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.27 on Wed, 07 Sep 2016 05:29:09 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms Party Realignment in the 1980s 377 Our interest focuses on the basic partisan loyalties of American voters, commonly known as their "party identifications" (Campbell et al., 1960). While no immutable biological trait, this identification is no fickle opinion swaying with the prevailing wind. To be sure, a good portion of voters will not be guided by their identifications in casting their votes in any given election, but in most cases their party identifications have survived such acts of infidelity. Though aided by defections of Democratic voters, Eisenhower's and Nixon's victories failed to upend the basic partisan division and instead turned out to be "deviating elections." Given the nature of party identification, a shift of basic loyalties massive enough to produce a realignment is bound to be