Toward the Next Generation of Media

Toward the Next Generation of Media-- Cloud TV: Markets and Policy This paper is a report on the findings and conclusions of an ongoing research project on “The next generation of video: Cloud TV”, directed by Eli Noam. The project involves a consortium of several researchers around the world, over a dozen companies, and several policy and public interest advocates. It aims to analyze the next generation of TV media, its market structure and economics, and the next generation of policy issues. It investigates the technological building blocks of such a media system, the economic reasons why the central players of such a media environment will be “cloud” intermediaries, and the business and policy implications. For a hundred years, the main issue for telecom regulation had been interoperation and interconnection. The rules for TV were different than those of telecom. Mostly, these transmission systems were closed operations. But now, the two network types are converging. The next generation of interoperation is emerging, the interoperation of media clouds. There are other significant policy issues, too. The paper identifies and analyzes them and concludes that only two principles are needed to assure a competitive structure. If we do not start a serious analysis of next-generation TV now, the slowness of the governmental process practically guarantees that public policy will be caught unprepared and a retardant rather than an active participant in the shaping of the future media environment. Furthermore, it will leave it to other countries and their companies to determine the future of the world’s media system. Therefore, this is an important topic for TPRC discussion. Indeed, it could be the topic for an entire panel or plenary: “Into the emerging new TV world”. Among the questions investigated by the project are the following. The paper and presentation to TPRC would select the items furthest along. Right now, the policy section is in that position. 1. Technology A. Applications What types of applications will take advantage of this next generation of video? What are the technology issues of multi-platform TV (TV sets, computer monitors, tablets, mobile phones, automobile devices, etc)? What are some technology elements of ‘immersive video’ and will the next generation of video feature the idea of “immersion” B. Standards and Protocols What are the recent international efforts at technological harmonization and standards relevent to NGV? Is international/national uniformity necessary or desirable, and are there alternative bridging and translation arrangements possible? What are the bridging mechanisms and technologies for the interoperation among clouds? 2. Business A. Distribution Models What are the options for a content provider in reaching a viewer, and how much is each pathway’s a. transmission cost? b. revenues, and their sharing arrangements? c. other factors B. Cloud Models What will be the role of intermediary cloud providers in a. Storage of 3rd party content b. Storage of user-owned content c. Subscription to content packages d. Marketing of 3rd party content e. Content creation and commissioning What are the factors that explain the high market shares, respectively, of Netflix, Google/YouTube, Amazon.com, Apple iStore, Facebook? What kind of scale advantages in technology and human skills are there in the provision of intermediary cloud services? C. New Content Models What is the potential for individualized content? What will be the nature of immersive video? How might it look like? What are non-entertainment applications for cloud-based video? What is the potential for Peer-to-Peer and user-generated video? D. Business Models Impacts of horizontal and vertical integration? What might be the distribution and release models by geography and platforms? Can we estimate consumer demand for cloud-based video? What are the different types of pricing systems for NGV services to consumers? Can last mile providers create a multi-revenue model similar to cable? Advertising models for NGV? What are the business and technological issues for individualized advertising? E. Impact on Established Industries In a world of online video, what is the residual role for traditional TV and print media? Given several scenarios for the demand for online video, what are the infrastructure implications for network providers? ISPs? 3. Policy A. Macro level What is the economic impact of an active cloud-TV system? What is the cost of delay due to regulatory gridlock? What is the economic impact in terms of jobs by a) the build out of networks to handle NGV b) new types of jobs created by a NGV environment. What are some expected advantages and problems of a TV system of a ‘cloud of clouds’? B. Process In a world with different laws concerning content, how can content providers and providers of interactive content comply with these rules? Which governmental agency should have regulatory authority in the NGV environment? Is there a role for supranational harmonization and what should be its limits? C. Assuring Pluralism, Competitive, and Open Markets What would a globalized online video market look like? What are the implications for ‘national culture’ production? For content and viewpoint pluralism? What would be the impact of market power in the cloud market? Will competitive forces deal with it? What are the issues of interoperability among clouds? For users? For content providers? For telecom providers? What are the issues of ‘net neutrality’ that affect cloud providers and content providers? D. Other Substantive Policy Issues What are ways to include the digitally challenged, the rural, and the poor? What are the benefits and detractions from these plans? What are the copyright and licensing issues associated with global online video? With interactive and individualized content? What are the issues of privacy and security in an online video world, and what can be the role of cloud providers? What role for government in the R&D for NGV? E. Impact on the established system Who will be potential losers? What is the role of public service broadcasters in an online video world? In cloud provision? What will be the status of legacy rules affecting broadcasters when content distribution migrates increasingly online? What will be the status of legacy rules affecting cable/DBS providers? Of wireline and wireless telecom rules? What are the regulatory issues of harmonization for multi-platform TV (TV sets, computer monitors, tablets, mobile phones, automobile devices, etc? [enter Abstract Body]