Did the great recession reduce visitor spending and willingness to pay for nature-based recreation? Evidence from 2006 and 2009.

I. INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy experienced considerable change from 2006 to 2009. During 2006-2007. the unemployment rate was under 5%; however, in fall 2009, the national unemployment rate topped 10% for the first time since 1983 (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2009). After reaching its peak of 14,164 in October 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled to below 6.600 in March 2009. In addition to declines in consumer confidence, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined four consecutive quarters during 2008-2009, marking the longest U.S. recession in 60 years (Bureau of Economic Analysis 2009). The gray literature dubbed this recession the "Great Recession," attempting to draw parallels with the Great Depression of the 1930s (Isidore 2009). Many sectors of the U.S. economy, such as the $300 billion domestic automobile industry (McAlinden, Hill, and Swiecki 2003), were hit hard by the recession. However, less attention has been given to the effect of the recession on the active outdoor recreation industry. This industry has sales of $290 billion (Outdoor Industry Foundation 2006), similar in magnitude to the U.S. domestic automobile manufacturing industry. This industry is an aggregate of outdoor recreation equipment sales and recreation trip expenditures for camping, fishing, hunting, snow sports, hiking, water-based recreation, and wildlife viewing. Hiker and back-packer spending is one of the largest, categories of the active outdoor recreation industry. This trail-based recreation accounts for $83 billion or nearly 30% of the industry (Outdoor Industry Foundation 2006). Trail-based recreation spending also supports over 700,000 jobs (Outdoor Industry Foundation 2006), a figure similar to direct employment in automobile manufacturing (McAlinden, Hill, and Swiecki 2003). The majority of the recreation spending is trip-related spending (e.g., gasoline, hotels, food), rather than pure purchases of durable equipment. High expenditures and consumer surplus have been documented for nature-based recreation when the economy is at its peak (Keske and Loomis 2007; Outdoor Industry Foundation 2006), but did consumer expenditures and willingness to pay (WTP) for nature-based recreation fall during the Great Recession? This study focuses on changes in visitation, expenditures, and consumer surplus for nature-based, high mountain recreation during times of macroeconomic change. In this paper, we replicate a 2006 survey design and sampling frame to investigate how visitor benefits and visitor trip spending changed between 2006 and 2009 for trail-based recreation in Colorado. Hiking and backpacking are popular activities nationwide, and results from the Colorado study may be transferrable to other regions offering these activities. More than one-third of the U.S. population over the age of 16 participates in hiking or backpacking, representing over 50 million participants (Cordell et al. 1999). Greater than 1 billion days are spent hiking or backpacking in the United States each year (Cordell et al. 1999). Others project that this is a trend that will continue into the future. For example, Bowker, English, and Cordell (1999) forecast that the number of days of hiking is expected to increase by about 5% a decade between the years 2000 and 2050, for a cumulative increase of 25% over this time period. If recreation expenditures are unchanged across periods of economic prosperity and decline, then recreation has potential to be a stabilizing economic sector in rural economies. Mountain economies, including our study area, frequently experience competing economic development interests from energy and mineral extraction industries (Loomis 2002), which are known for economic volatility (Davis and Tilton 2005). Nonetheless, extraction of energy/minerals is a notable driver of the Colorado economy. One report estimates the 2007 economic contribution of the energy and mineral industry to the Colorado economy to be as high as $11 billion (~5%) of the state's gross state product (Corporation for a Skilled Workforce 2009). …