cssi/SciSciGPT-SciSciNet huggingface dataset:
How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance

the share of portfolio holdings that differ from the benchmark index holdings. We compute Active Share for domestic equity mutual funds from 1980 to 2003. We relate Active Share to fund characteristics such as size, expenses, and turnover in the cross-section, and we also examine its evolution over time. Active Share predicts fund performance: funds with the highest Active Share significantly outperform their benchmarks, both before and after expenses, and they exhibit strong performance persistence. Nonindex funds with the lowest Active Share underperform their benchmarks. (JEL G10, G14, G20, G23)
Longevity bond premiums: The extreme value approach and risk cubic pricing

Abstract The purpose of this study is to analyze the securitization of longevity risk with an emphasis on longevity risk modeling and longevity bond premium pricing. Various longevity derivatives have been proposed, and the capital market has experienced one unsuccessful attempt by the European Investment Bank (EIB) in 2004. After carefully analyzing the pros and cons of previous securitizations, we present our proposed longevity bonds, whose payoffs are structured as a series of put option spreads. We utilize a random walk model with drift to fit small variations of mortality improvements and employ extreme value theory to model rare longevity events. Our method is a new approach in longevity risk securitization, which has the advantage of both capturing mortality improvements within sample and extrapolating rare, out-of- sample longevity events. We demonstrate that the risk cubic model developed for pricing catastrophe bonds can be applied to mortality and longevity bond pricing and use the model to calculate risk premiums for longevity bonds.
Equity short selling and bond rating downgrades

Abstract We examine whether short sellers identify firms that have significant changes in default likelihoods and credit rating downgrades. In the month before a rating downgrade, equity short interest is 40% higher than one year prior. Short sellers predict changes in default probabilities that lead to downgrades by focusing on firms with inaccurate or biased ratings. This strategy is profitable for short sellers primarily since downgrades are associated with significantly negative equity returns. Short sellers also facilitate price discovery by reducing abnormal stock returns following downgrades and by leading bond yield spreads.
A Plea for Defending Humanity

In this short article, the author addresses some of the criticisms Professor Dinstein raises of the book, Defending Humanity. He argues that these criticisms undervalue both the use of robust jurisprudence of domestic criminal law in fleshing out international criminal law concepts, and the potential of resorting to this wealth of case law to interpret traditional international law from different perspectives. Moreover, in the author's view, Professor Dinstein's unstinting reliance on positive international law is not entirely convincing and is applied inconsistently in support of his strict interpretations.
Shareholders have a say in executive compensation: Evidence from say-on-pay in the United States

Abstract We examine the 2011 and 2012 shareholder votes soon after the implementation of the SEC regulation that requires a non-binding general shareholder vote on executive compensation, or “say-on-pay” (SOP). Firms with high SOP approval have better performance and returns, higher CEO ownership, lower institutional ownership, lower CEO compensation, lower return volatility, and better accounting quality than do firms with high SOP dissent. Different from that noted in previous shareholder proposal studies and research on SOP in the United Kingdom, shareholder discontent is associated with high or excessive CEO compensation. We also find that SOP rejection votes are more sensitive to stock and stock option compensation. Finally, boards respond to SOP rejection votes by reducing the growth of CEO compensation, and shareholders respond positively to these changes by voting to approve SOP, regardless of firm performance. Our results provide evidence that SOP general shareholder voting rights could be an effective mechanism of corporate governance.
The Political and Governance Risks of Sovereign Wealth

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) are designed to solve critical domestic policy problems. Poorly managed SWFs and SWFs that are managed as tools of economic nationalism or mercantilism will present problems for both the sponsor country and for host countries that receive SWF investment. This article discusses these and other significant concerns presented by sovereign wealth, addressing both domestic and international risks. As described in the article, these risks fall along four dimensions: domestic political risks, domestic governance risks, international political risks, and international governance risks. The International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Fundsâ (IFSWF) Santiago Principles provide a basic framework to manage and mitigate each of these types of risk, although they have limitations as a form of soft law that relies on the SWFsâ own internal compliance efforts. Notwithstanding these concerns, SWFs have proven themselves to be generally benign investors, suggesting that present governance and host country regulatory structures have successfully mitigated international risks to this point. The same is not true, however, of domestic risks presented by SWFs, which remain a serious concern for governments and, to a lesser extent, markets generally.
Caregivers in the Courtroom: The Growing Trend of Family Responsibilities Discrimination

When people think of sex discrimination, they tend to think of glass-ceiling discrimination and sexual harassment. This article describes and documents a rapidly expanding area of employment discrimination law: family responsibilities discrimination, or "FRD." FRD is employment discrimination against people based on their caregiving responsibilities, whether for children, elderly parents, or ill partners. FRD includes both "maternal wall" discrimination -- the equivalent of the glass ceiling for mothers -- and discrimination against men who participate in childcare or provide care for other family members.
Buffer location and sizing to optimize cost and quality in semi-continuous manufacturing processes: Methodology and application

The problem of optimizing the location and size of buffers in semi-continuous manufacturing processes is considered. This problem is formulated as a non-linear integer program that determines the optimal buffer size for individual stages and allocates tanks to those stages in order to minimize total tank inclusion, holding, quality, process overshoot and undershoot costs. Heuristics are developed to solve the problem and bounds are derived to evaluate the quality of the heuristics. This method has been implemented at three glucose and three sorbitol production processes at a leading food processing company. This has resulted in total annual cost savings of around 6.4% or $9000 000. In addition, this work has had a significant impact on several strategic operational decisions at this company. [Supplementary materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of IIE Transactions for the following free supplemental resource: Appendix]
How Medical Apology Programs Harm Patients

TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 308 I. THE STORY OF DISCLOSURE PROGRAMS 309 II. REPRESENTATIVE MODELS FOR APOLOGY PROGRAMS 313 A. Lexington, Kentucky VA Hospital 314 B. Two Examples of Current Apology Programs ........ 316 i. COPIC. 316 ii. UMHS 319 III. CONVINCING PATIENTS THAT LESS MONEY IS BETTER ...... 323 A. Cooling the Mark Out 323 B. The Psychology of Apology 326 IV. IF EVERYONE IS HAPPY, WHAT’S WRONG? 329 V. THE CURE: “MALPRACTICE MIRANDA” AND OTHER FIXES ... 332 A. Assuring Injured Patients Understand Their Rights 332 B. Processing Claims Quickly and Fairly 335 C. Closing COPIC-Style Loopholes 337 D. Repealing Apology Shield Laws 337 CONCLUSION 337
Different paths to justice: the ADA, employment, and administrative enforcement by the EEOC and FEPAs.

Under Title I of the ADA, individuals who believe they have been subjected to disability-based employment discrimination may file an administrative charge. This article looks at who files charges, over what issues, and with what outcomes in both Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) field offices, and state and local fair employment practice agencies (FEPAs). The data for the article are computerized records of all ADA charges filed through March 31, 1998. The data indicate that individuals who rely on a FEPA to investigate their charge have a greater likelihood of obtaining a beneficial outcome than individuals who rely on the EEOC, but proportionately more individuals receiving a beneficial outcome are likely to receive monetary benefits from the EEOC than from a FEPA. Further, those who receive beneficial outcomes will probably receive greater monetary benefits from charges investigated by the EEOC than from those investigated by a FEPA. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Integration of Global Knowledge Networks

This article surveys the literature and develops a framework for research into the integration of distributed knowledge work (DKW). Knowledge work is considered to be �distributed� whenever key decisions for execution of the project cut across organizational boundaries, as occurs under outsourcing, offshoring, or open-source arrangements. The growth of such arrangements in recent years is well documented. Nonetheless, research into maintaining the coherence of a DKW project from initiation to customer delivery, often referred to as supply chain integration, project or systems integration, or simply �integration,� is relatively new. We first review the relevant literature from operations, service, and information management, organizational theory, and engineering design, focusing on the key decisions identified by this literature in relation to the contracting, organization, work, and information infrastructure design of a knowledge work project. We then attempt to open the �black box� of integration by inductively organizing these key decisions. Finally, we contrast this approach with prior research frameworks and identify key topics for future study.
The irrelevance of the MM dividend irrelevance theorem

Abstract Contrary to Miller and Modigliani [1961. Dividend policy, growth, and the valuation of shares. Journal of Business 34, 411–433], payout policy is not irrelevant and investment policy is not the sole determinant of value, even in frictionless markets. MM ask “Do companies with generous distribution policies consistently sell at a premium above those with niggardly payouts?” But MM's analysis does not address this question because the joint effect of their assumptions is to mandate 100% free cash flow payout in every period, thereby rendering “niggardly payouts” infeasible and forcing distributions to a global optimum. Irrelevance obtains, but in an economically vacuous sense because the firm's opportunity set is artificially constrained to payout policies that fully distribute free cash flow. When MM's assumptions are relaxed to allow retention, payout policy matters in exactly the same sense that investment policy does. Moreover (i) the standard Fisherian model is empirically refutable, predicting that firms will make large payouts in present value terms, (ii) only when payout policy is optimized will the present value of distributions equal the PV of project cash flows, (iii) the NPV rule for investments is not sufficient to ensure value maximization, rather an analogous rule for payout policy is also necessary, and (iv) Black's [1976. The dividend puzzle. Journal of Portfolio Management 2, 5–8] “dividend puzzle” is a non-puzzle because it is rooted in the mistaken idea that MM's irrelevance theorem applies to payout/retention decisions, which it does not.
House allocation with existing tenants: A characterization ✩

Abstract We analyze mechanisms that are used to allocate dormitory rooms to students at college campuses. Students consist of newcoming freshmen, who do not currently occupy any rooms, and more senior students each of whom occupies a room from the previous year. In addition to the rooms already occupied by the existing tenants, there are vacated rooms by the graduating class. Students have strict preferences over dormitory rooms. Each student shall be assigned a dormitory room in an environment where monetary transfers are not allowed. An existing tenant can move to another room as a result of the assignment. We show that you request my house–I get your turn mechanisms are the only mechanisms that are Pareto-efficient, individually rational, strategy-proof, weakly neutral , and consistent .
Optimal acquisition of a partially hedgeable house

We characterize the optimal time to purchase a house by a risk-averse investor who has access to complete financial markets and whose objective is to maximize expected utility from wealth at some fixed horizon. The house purchase is financially attractive (due to high expected returns or tax deductions, for example), which provides an incentive to buy as soon as possible; however, its value is only partially correlated with financial markets and, therefore, its price risk cannot be perfectly hedged, which provides an incentive to delay purchase. Using martingale duality method, we fully characterize the optimal terminal wealth in the case of CARA utility, so that we can generate simple numerical solutions for different parameter values, and study the trade-off between the two conflicting incentives. We derive more explicit results when the price follows a Gaussian process. In particular, we identify conditions under which an optimal stopping time is deterministic.
Wishful thinking in strategic environments

Towards developing a theory of systematic biases about strategies, I analyse strategic implications of a particular bias: wishful thinking about the strategies. I identify a player as a wishful thinker if she hopes to enjoy the highest pay-off that is consistent with her information about the others' strategies. I develop a straightforward elimination process that characterizes the strategy profiles that are consistent with wishful thinking, mutual knowledge of wishful thinking, and so on. Every pure-strategy Nash equilibrium is consistent with common knowledge of wishful thinking. For generic two-person games, I further show that the pure Nash equilibrium strategies are the only strategies that are consistent with common knowledge of wishful thinking. My analysis also illustrates how one can characterize the strategic implications of general decision rules using the tools of game theory. Copyright 2007, Wiley-Blackwell.
Renegotiation of financial contracts: Evidence from private credit agreements.

Abstract Using a large sample of private credit agreements between U.S. publicly traded firms and financial institutions, we show that over 90% of long-term debt contracts are renegotiated prior to their stated maturity. Renegotiations result in large changes to the amount, maturity, and pricing of the contract, occur relatively early in the life of the contract, and are rarely a consequence of distress or default. The accrual of new information concerning the credit quality, investment opportunities, and collateral of the borrower, as well as macroeconomic fluctuations in credit and equity market conditions, are the primary determinants of renegotiation and its outcomes. The terms of the initial contract (e.g., contingencies) also play an important role in renegotiations; by altering the structure of the contract in a state contingent manner, renegotiation is partially controlled by the contractual assignment of bargaining power.
Achieving Sustainable Development: The Centrality and Multiple Facets of Integrated Decisionmaking

The biggest challenge for sustainable development in coming decades will be to operationalize it: to make it occur, or to make an effective transition toward it, in communities, places, and businesses all over the world. Very few seriously question the problems that sustainable development is intended t o address—growing environmental degradation and a growing gap between rich and poor. There is also greater understanding that sustainable development is based on a set of principles that would profoundly affect national and international governance. The relationships among these principles are less well understood, though. Much of the public and academic discussion concerning sustainable development focuses on intergenerational equity and the precautionary approach or principle alone. Worse still, given the current and increasing magnitude of the world’s environmental and poverty problems, relatively little progress has been made toward sustainable development in the past decade. In 1992, at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, or Earth Summit, in Rio de Janeiro, countries of the world agreed to Agenda 21, an ambitious plan of action for realizing sustainable development. Sustainable development is development that protects and even restores the environment rather than degrades or pollutes it. It is intended to address the mutually reinforcing problems of global environmental degradation and global poverty without compromising the benefits of traditional development. These
Ironing without control

Abstract I extend Myersonʼs [R. Myerson, Optimal auction design, Math. Oper. Res. 6 (1981) 58–73] ironing technique to more general objective functions. The approach is based on a generalized notion of virtual surplus which can be maximized pointwise even when the monotonicity constraint implied by incentive compatibility binds. It is applicable to quasilinear principal-agent models where the standard virtual surplus is weakly concave in the allocation or appropriately separable in the allocation and type. No assumptions on allocation rules are required beyond monotonicity.
Revisiting State Tax Preferences for Seniors

By the year 2030 one in five Americans will be over the age of 65 according to Census Bureau projections. Increasingly, state budgets will be stretched thin by the healthcare and other needs of the nation’s elderly. For example, states provide on average 47 percent of the funding for the Medicaid program, which pays for the vast majority of long-term care in this country and bears a portion of the prescription drug costs for low-income elderly people. States must finance pensions and health care for what will be a growing cadre of retired state employees. Elderly-related costs borne by state and local governments for a range of other programs ranging from special transportation to social services will also be increasing.
Motivation Crowding and the Federal Civil Servant: Evidence from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service

ABSTRACT Pay-for-performance reforms create “high-powered” incentives for civil servants to meet or exceed specified performance objectives as measured by such things as customer satisfaction. Economists and social psychologists have advanced the claim that high-powered incentives for performance may empirically lessen the effect of civil servants' intrinsic motivation toward achieving agency goals (motivation can be “crowded out”). Nonetheless, well-designed pay-for-performance incentives may “crowd in” intrinsic motivation. A number of federal agencies and subagencies have undergone personnel management reforms that raise the specter of this pattern of “motivation crowding.” Does it happen? Is intrinsic motivation crowded in or crowded out? This paper employs item response theory to create measurement models for the estimation a latent trait of intrinsic motivation for employees of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) using data from the 2002 Federal Hum...
Earmarking as a Strategy Against Budgetary Constraints: San Francisco's Children's Amendment

The passage and implementation of the San Francisco Children's Amendment, or Proposition J, in 1991 represents an important expansion of the increasingly common strategy of budgetary earmarking by human service organizations. The core of the initiative was a city charter amendment that earmarked a portion of existing property taxes and established a baseline budget for children's services. Of these provisions, the baseline budget has proven most important in preserving children's services and preventing any substitution effects in a time of increasing fiscal stress for the city/ county of San Francisco. This case also illustrates the role of a strong political appeal in passing technical budgetary initiatives over the objections of elected officials and others. While there was concern about the reduced flexibility created by earmarking a city's budget during a period of retrenchment, this concern was overlooked because of the overwhelming political support for the children's cause. However, conflict between groups was created by the measure as groups fought to be included in the provisions of the amendment and over whether each group had obtained its fair share of funding.
Altering Rules, Cumulative Voting, and Venture Capital

Legal scholars have long debated the proper balance between mandatory and default rules in corporate law. One group—the contractarians—maintain that corporate law should function as an off-the-rack set of default rules that approximate, as much as possible, the rules that the transacting parties would have agreed to if bargaining were costless. The contractarians are generally skeptical of mandatory rules because they interfere with the ability of the parties to decide for themselves how to organize their economic relationships. Another group of scholars—the anti-contractarians—have argued that corporate law should seek to achieve certain regulatory objectives separate and apart from the goal of private wealth maximization. In order to achieve these objectives, such as the protection of uninformed investors, these scholars argue that it is necessary that corporate law contain some mandatory rules that cannot be altered by the transacting parties.
The effect of liquidity and solvency risk on the inclusion of bond covenants.

Abstract Studies have analyzed the impact of firm and issue characteristics but not liquidity and solvency components of financial distress on the use of bond covenants. Using a comprehensive database of corporate bonds from 2001 to 2012, we find that firm liquidity, measured by standardized Lambda, has a negative statistical and economic impact on the inclusion of all categories and sub-categories of restrictive bond covenants. Developed from financial statement information by Emery and Lyons (1991), Lambda is designed as a coverage ratio that, under certain distribution assumptions, maps into the probability of a firm being unable to pay its short-term bills. The strongest solvency proxy is the 10-year credit default swap (CDS) spread which is significant across the categories and sub-categories for investment and payment covenants, weakly significant for the subordinated debt sub-category of the subsequent financing covenant, but strongly significant for the control poison put sub-category of event covenants. This evidence supports a model that uses SLambda as a proxy for liquidity risk and the 10-year CDS spread as a proxy for solvency risk. The liquidity/covenant relationship is dampened when firms have access to commercial paper funding or bank loans. However, during the recent financial crisis liquidity event this liquidity/covenant relationship was enhanced especially for firms which were dependent on commercial paper during this time when the commercial paper market was deteriorating.
The rise and fall of third-party high-speed access

While Internet usage blossomed during the entire 1995 - 2001 time period, there was a large change in the nature of the high-speed Internet access business. Initially, connection, routing and content were three separate parts of high-speed Internet service. Cable companies initially teamed with affiliated third-party providers to create their high- speed access combination of connection and routing whereas telephone companies resisted working with third-party providers for their high-speed access product. In the end, both cable and telephone providers moved toward a more integrated approach to the provision of high-speed access. However, content has remained, for the most part, separate from connection and routing. This paper finds that changes in the cost of caching, bandwidth and more standardized technical knowledge led cable companies toward the integrated approach favored by telephone companies, and changes in regulation facilitated integrated provision by telephone companies. At the same time, integration of access with content did not provide similar efficiencies and content remains provided for the most part by independent companies.
Measuring Foreign Supply Response to Changes in U.S. Prices: An Argentine Example

The paper proposes a method to measure foreign supply response to changes in U.S. prices and applies the method to Argentine field crops. Argentine export taxes and marketing margins are endogenized, and price transmission elasticities are calculated. Total area harvested is a function of weighted farm prices, and crop shares are a function of relative prices. One important concern during the course of debate on the 1985 Farm Bill was how farmers in other countries were likely to respond to changes in U.S. Policies. Those arguing for policies which would reduce commodity prices contended that lower prices would be a major disincentive to foreign production. On the other hand, those favoring price-increasing policies contended that little additional foreign production was likely to result from higher prices. This paper will outline a method to measure foreign supply response to changes in U.S. commodity prices, and the approach will be applied to the case of Argentine field crops. It will be argued that the proper measurement of foreign supply response requires consideration of the likely response o foreign governments, traders and farmers to changes in world prices. The model developed here links U.s. and Argentine farm prices, and allows for cross-commodity effects.
She's Upright: Sexuality And Obscenity In Islam

This paper explores the concepts of sexuality and obscenity in Islamic traditions and the way cultures and society shape the value systems that judge beauty, propriety, and legality. I conclude that societal values are preserved in emerging religious teachings—by way of expanding categories for acts, rules, and values and by relying on practice-based consensus; not on negotiated consensus. As such, in Islam, obscenity and profanity become nuisances that disturb individuals' spiritual balance and unwanted variables that destabilize social equilibrium.
Equilibrium and disequilibrium interpretations of the is-lm model

Equilibrium and disequilibrium analytics have been given for an IS-LM type model and are summarized in Table 4. The familiar IS-LM apparatus is appropriate (with some reinterpretation) for the analysis of notional equilibrium or for excess supplies of labor and commodities. Different tools are required for the other three disequilibrium scenarios considered here. Overall, a bond-financed increase in government spending consistently raises the interest rate, while a bond-financed increase in the money supply reduces the interest rate. The effects, if any, on employment and output depend critically upon the state of the economy.
“Secondary Evasion” and the Earned Income Tax Credit

This paper documents that the earned income of taxpayers claiming the earned income tax credit (EITC) tends to cluster within $800 intervals surrounding the kink points of the EITC benefit distribution. This clustering is especially strong for head of household taxpayers around the kink point of the phase‐in range and, to a lesser extent, for married filing joint taxpayers around the kink point of the phase‐out range. The results from logit regression models estimated by filing status and kink point location indicate that “secondary evasion” with respect to the EITC is more associated with the characteristics of head of household taxpayers than those of married filing joint taxpayers.
Reconsideration of the P-Bar Model of Gradual Price Adjustment

Abstract This paper compares the P-bar model of price adjustment with the currently dominant Calvo specification. Theoretically, the P-bar model is more attractive as it depends on adjustment costs for physical quantities rather than nominal prices, while incorporating a one-period information lag. Furthermore, the resulting adjustment relation is more completely free of “money illusion,” in terms of dynamic relationships, and therefore satisfies the natural-rate hypothesis of Lucas [1972a. Econometric testing of the natural rate hypothesis. In: Eckstein, O. (Ed.), The Econometrics of Price Determination. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System], which is not satisfied by the Calvo model in any of its variants. Along the way, it shows that both the P-bar and Calvo models can be formulated in distinct versions in which current real wages are, or are not, allocative. Quantitatively, for a given calibration of the demand parameters, the implied time-series properties of the inflation rate, output gap, and nominal interest rate are determined for various policy parameters, and are compared with quarterly data for the US economy. Neither model dominates but, overall, the comparison seems somewhat more favorable to the P-bar model and certainly does not provide support for the dominant position held by the Calvo model in current monetary policy analysis.
Replacement Referees and NFL Betting Markets

Are betting markets efficient? The 2012 labor dispute between the NFL and the referees is used as a quasi-experiment to assess whether the betting markets are able to achieve accurate “prices” in an uncertain environment. More points were scored and underdogs performed relatively better resulting in upsets and closer-than-expected games. Betting markets, though, were unable to anticipate or adjust to this systematic effect even though irregularities in gambling markets were reported before the beginning of the season. Not only were they inefficient, but profitable betting strategies can be identified.
Coercion, Contract and the Limits of the Market

It is a widely accepted principle of economics that if two or more adults voluntarily agree to a contract or an exchange that has no negative fall-out on others, then the government should not stop such a contract. This is often called the ‘principle of free contract’ (PFC). There is a body of writing in economics which upholds the PFC. Yet this ubiquitous principle is ill-defined and full of ambiguities. For instance, since it refers to voluntary choice, its proper use presumes an understanding of what is ‘voluntary’ and, therefore, also, of what is coercive. What is ironic is that, while philosophers and legal scholars have debated and analyzed these concepts and the validity of the principle of free contract, there is very little discussion of these in economics, even though so much of economics is founded on this principle. This has caused a lot of policy confusion. The aim of this paper is to construct general rules for when we may violate the PFC. The argument is constructed within the Paretian framework. Hence, the violation of the PFC is not justified by appeal to deontological ethics or non-welfarist criteria. This is not an easy task since the principle of free contract is often viewed as a rule that is a derivative of the Pareto principle.
Frequency and Predictors of False Conviction: Why We Know So Little, and New Data on Capital Cases

In the first part of this article, we address the problems inherent in studying wrongful convictions: our pervasive ignorance and the extreme difficulty of obtaining the data that we need to answer even basic questions. The main reason that we know so little about false convictions is that, by definition, they are hidden from view. As a result, it is nearly impossible to gather reliable data on the characteristics or even the frequency of false convictions. In addition, we have very limited data on criminal investigations and prosecutions in general, so even if we could somehow obtain data on cases of wrongful conviction, we would have inadequate data on true convictions with which to compare them. In the second part of the article, we dispel some of that ignorance by considering data on false convictions in a small but important subset of criminal cases about which we have unusually detailed information: death sentences. From 1973 on, we know basic facts about all defendants who were sentenced to death in the United States, and we know which of them were exonerated. From these data we estimate that the frequency of wrongful death sentences in the United States is at least 2.3 percent. In addition, we compare post-1973 capital exonerations in the United States to a random sample of cases of defendants who were sentenced in the same time period and ultimately executed. Based on these comparisons, we present a handful of findings on features of the investigations of capital cases, and on background facts about capital defendants, that are modest predictors of false convictions.
The Long-Run Effects of Oil Wealth on Development: Evidence from Petroleum Geology

We estimate the long-run effects of oil wealth on development by exploiting spatial variation in sedimentary basins—areas where petroleum can potentially form. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that oil production impedes democracy and fiscal capacity development, increases corruption, and raises GDP per capita without significantly harming the non-resource sectors of the economy. We find no evidence that oil production increases internal armed conflict, coup attempts, or political purges. In several specifications failure to account for endogeneity leads to substantial underestimation of the adverse effects of oil, suggesting that countries with higher-quality political institutions and greater fiscal capacity disproportionately select into oil production.
Using the variance structure of the conditional autoregressive spatial specification to model knowledge spillovers

This study investigates the pattern of knowledge spillovers arising from patent activity between European regions. A Bayesian hierarchical model is developed that specifies region-specific latent effects parameters modeled using a connectivity structure between regions that can reflect geographical proximity in conjunction with technological and other types of proximity. This approach exploits the fact that interregional relationships may exhibit industry-specific technological linkages or transportation network linkages, which is in contrast to traditional studies relying exclusively on geographical proximity. We also allow for both symmetric and asymmetric knowledge spillovers between regions, and for heterogeneity across the regional sample. A series of formal Bayesian model comparisons provides support for a model based on technological proximity combined with spatial proximity, asymmetric knowledge spillovers, and heterogeneity in the disturbances. Estimates of region-specific latent effects parameters structured in this fashion are produced by the model and used to draw inferences regarding the character of knowledge spillovers across the regions. The method is illustrated using sample data on patent activity covering 323 regions in nine European countries. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Intergenerational Risk Sharing

Abstract In this paper we examine government debt and tax-transfer policies that can be improve the allocation of risk between generations. Markets cannot allocate risk efficiently between two generations whenever the two generations are not both alive prior to the occurence of a stochastic event. This implies that government policies transferring risk between generations have the potential to create first-order welfare improvements. Our model provides a non- Keynesian justification for the debt-finance of wars and recessions, as well as an added rationale for Social Security type tax-transfer schemes which aid unlucky generations, e.g. the Depression generation, at the expense of luckier generations.
State Dependence and Alternative Explanations for Consumer Inertia

For many consumer packaged goods products, researchers have documented inertia in brand choice, a form of persistence whereby consumers have a higher probability of choosing a product that they have purchased in the past. Using data on margarine and refrigerated orange juice purchases, we show that the finding of inertia is robust to flexible controls for preference heterogeneity and not due to autocorrelated taste shocks. Thus, the inertia is at least partly due to structural, not spurious state dependence. We explore three economic explanations for the observed structural state dependence: preference changes due to past purchases or consumption experiences which induce a form of loyalty, search, and learning. Our data are consistent with loyalty, but not with search or learning. Properly distinguishing among the dierent sources of inertia is important for policy analysis, because the alternative sources of inertia imply qualitative dierences in firm’s pricing incentives and lead to quantitatively dierent equilibrium
DO INSTITUTIONS AND SOCIAL COHESION ENHANCE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF AID? NEW EVIDENCE FROM AFRICA

This paper explores the effects of aid, institutions, and social cohesion on per capita income growth in 34 African countries using the Arellano-Bond dynamic panel GMM estimator. The paper focuses on the interplay of aid and institutions and the interplay of aid and social cohesion. The empirical results indicate that social cohesion enhances the growth effects of aid but there is a threshold effect, suggesting that aid becomes effective in enhancing growth in countries with higher social cohesion. Surprisingly, the results show that beyond a certain level of improvements in institutional quality, institutions (political rights and civil liberties) reduce the effectiveness of aid.
Executives' “off-the-job” behavior, corporate culture, and financial reporting risk

Abstract We examine how executives' behavior outside the workplace, as measured by their ownership of luxury goods (low “frugality”) and prior legal infractions, is related to financial reporting risk. We predict and find that chief executive officers (CEOs) and chief financial officers (CFOs) with a legal record are more likely to perpetrate fraud. In contrast, we do not find a relation between executives' frugality and the propensity to perpetrate fraud. However, as predicted, we find that unfrugal CEOs oversee a relatively loose control environment characterized by relatively high and increasing probabilities of other insiders perpetrating fraud and unintentional material reporting errors during their tenure. Further, cultural changes associated with an increase in fraud risk are more likely during unfrugal (vs. frugal) CEOs' reigns, including the appointment of an unfrugal CFO, an increase in executives' equity-based incentives to misreport, and a decline in measures of board monitoring intensity.
A New Architecture for the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

The new architecture for the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons proposed here is a mandatory regime under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter, building upon the current consensual regime, but remedying its deficiencies. This article examines the operation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in relation to current nuclear policy dynamics, explaining why the treaty regime has become increasingly inadequate to meet the proliferation challenge, and even counter-productive. The recent confrontations over nuclear policy with Iran, Saddam Hussein's Iraq and North Korea are drawn upon as illustrations and support for the new architecture's foundation - a Security Council Resolution declaring nuclear weapons proliferation, whether generated by states or non-state actors, a threat to the peace. The new architecture, while integrating key elements of the present non-proliferation framework, would be prescriptive, not merely reactive and ad hoc, the difference arising from its basis in a statement of principle under Chapter VII of the Charter. The article explains how this would engage a design similar to post 9/11 anti-terrorism innovation in the Security Council to achieve a more promising dimension of deterrence, political legitimacy and effectiveness in negotiation of non-proliferation. The new architecture includes the so-called 'targeted sanctions,' a new tool already proven meritorious for anti-terrorism and counter-proliferation efforts. In conclusion, the article evaluates evidence demonstrating that the necessary political will is available to achieve the proposed new architecture and frames the essential policy choice.
A Theory of IPO Waves

In the IPO market, investors coordinate on acceptable IPO price based on the performance of past IPOs, and this generates an incentive for investment banks to produce information about IPO firms. In hot periods, the information produced by investment banks improves the quality of IPO firms, and this allows ex ante low quality firms to go public and increases the secondary market price, thus synchronizing high IPO volumes and high first day returns. When investment banks behave asymmetrically in information production, the “reputations” of investment banks are interpreted as a form of market segmentation to economize on the social cost of information production.
Commentary: Abandoned: Abolishing Female Prisons to Prevent Sexual Abuse and Herald an End to Incarceration

Because the U.S. is unable to prevent widespread sexual violations of incarcerated women, it should apply the prescriptions of a recent U.K. female prison abolitionist movement as the most effective and humane solution to the problem. Part I of this article examines the mass incarceration, composition, and sexual victimization of U.S. female prisoners. Part II evaluates the most recent attempt to stop the sexual victimization of U.S. prisoners under the Prison Rape Elimination Act. Part III presents the U.K. abolitionist solution and the small, though notable, consensus of support that developed around it. Part IV contends that, because neither the Prison Rape Elimination Act nor any previous law has adequately protected prisoners from sexual abuse, the incarceration of women is unconscionable when adequate prison alternatives of support programs and community care are available. This Part also argues against alternatives rooted in retaliation and violence. The article concludes with hope: it argues that the best response to chaotic brutality is not calculated brutality, but humanity.
Technopolicing, surveillance, and citizen oversight: A neorepublican theory of liberty and information control

Abstract In modern society, we see the struggle to balance the proper functioning of government with the interests and rights of the people to access government information playing out all around us. This paper explores the relationship between liberty and security implicated by government surveillance and citizen-initiated efforts to cast the gaze back at the government (so-called “reciprocal surveillance”). In particular, this paper explores how a neorepublican conception of political liberty, defined as the absence of the possibility of domination, can inform future information policy research in this area. The paper concludes that, to be fully non-dominating, government must respect and provide effective institutional and legal mechanisms for their citizenry to effectuate self-government and command noninterference. Establishing liberal access rights to information about government conduct and mechanisms that ensure that citizens can effectively command noninterference are justified on the grounds that they reduce the possibility of arbitrary, and actual, interference with the right of the people govern themselves.
Alternative Lending Channels and the Crisis in U.S. Housing Markets

To what degree has the development of alternative mortgage funding channels promoted the recent boom and bust in U.S. housing markets? Past research examined whether Alt-A and subprime market shares are correlated with the housing bubble. This article expands the analysis to include the share of specific “alternative” lending terms and finds that the shares of interest-only and negative amortization loans are important factors in explaining the housing bubble. This result suggests that research on the housing market bubble should focus on the impacts of loan contract terms rather than loan channel.
Corporate Lobbying Behaviour on Accounting for Stock‐Based Compensation: Venue and Format Choices

This article investigates U.S. corporate lobbying of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) in the U.S. on the exposure draft to Financial Accounting Standard No. 123 (FAS 123), Accounting for Stock-Based Compensation. Essentially, firms lobbied the FASB in one of three ways: (a) against disclosure/recognition of any additional information beyond that already required in U.S. proxy statements, (b) for summary footnote disclosure of all employee stock-based compensation (SBC), or (c) for either pro forma or formal income statement recognition of all employee SBC. This study finds that the higher the level of the SBC of the top five executives, the less likely firms are to favour disclosing that information. This finding supports the hypothesis that economic self-interests motivated lobbying behaviour on FAS 123. Furthermore, the study finds that U.S. corporations lobby against disclosure of executive SBC in the annual reports even when the annual reports would disclose no additional information beyond that currently disclosed in proxy statements. This is evidence that managers perceive that the venue of disclosure (proxy versus annual report) matters. It is posited that managers lobbied against disclosure of SBC to avoid possible changes to compensation contracts which in turn could adversely affect stock prices. In sum, the results support the notion that managerial self-interest affects lobbying behaviour on the venue as well as the format of disclosure.
What Developments in Western Europe Tell Us about American Critiques of Corporate Criminal Liability

Although corporate criminal liability has been recognized in the United States for nearly a century, contemporary academic commentators have questioned its legitimacy and argued that it is inferior to its alternatives: civil liability for the corporation and/or criminal liability for individual corporate agents. Other academic critics have attacked the present definitions of corporate criminal liability. In other words, although corporate criminal
The Challenge of Building an Inter-Communal Rule of Law in Helen Hunt Jackson’s Ramona

AbstractThis article uses Helen Hunt Jackson’s 1884 novel Ramona to ground an exploration of the problems associated with building an inter-communal rule of law. A close reading of Jackson’s text reveals a rudimentary philosophy of law that comprises three central tenets: (1) a strong element of natural law thinking, which enables Jackson to construct an ideal of justice based on her conception of all individuals as members of a common humanity; (2) a critique of misunderstanding, most often rooted in ignorance, as a central stumbling-block to establishing a common legal system that unites different communities within a single territory; and (3) a deeper critique of incommensurability—the fundamental incompatibility of perspectives and values—as the greatest threat to the long-term possibility of an inter-communal rule of law, and consequently to the harmonious coexistence of different communities within a single territory.