A summary and interpretation of the evidence

How can one summarize the ways children have been affected as falls in incomes and cutbacks have spread around the world? What kind of broad policies should be promoted to counterbalance the deteriorations illustrated in the 11 case studies presented here? Will the economic recovery automatically reintroduce steady improvements in child welfare? Is any action being taken to maintain or even improve the situation of children during the present adverse economic circumstances? Before addressing these questions, attention must be paid to the structural determinants of social and child welfare, some of which have been discussed in the survey of the literature (pp. 1 87-m 202). Besides preventing overemphasis on the short-term aspects of child welfare, these considerations are important for identifying appropriate policy measures. According to the central theme of the development literature’ of the late 1960s to the early 198Os, poverty, malnutrition and high infant and overall mortality primarily result from structural (as opposed to cyclical) causes, and progress in human welfare depends more on the patterh rather than the rate of economic growth. In many instances, domestic factors such as unequal land distribution, insecure and inequitable tenancy agreements, a skewed distribution of income, misuse of public finance and the socio-cultural marginalization of entire sections of the population on religious, class and ethnic grounds have a far greater influence on standards of living than the growth or the decline ~ of the overall economy. Often, the constraints imposed upon human development by such domestic factors are rigidified even more by the overall dependence of many developing countries on the industrialized nations. Colonial inheritance, technical and financial dependence, structure and chronically deteriorating terms of trade and, more recently, heavy indebtedness have contributed and still do contribute very distinctly and directly to the impoverishment of large sections of Third World populations. The case for concentrating on structural factors rather than on economic fluctuations, however severe, is reinforced by the experience of several countries which despite rapid growth in output and incomes have witnessed stagnation, or even increases, in their numbers of absolute poor. Indeed, unless particularly severe, economic fluctuations may not have a very obvious impact in terms of child welfare. Conversely, their end however welcome might not be in itself a solution to the structural problems of children. For children, in other words, reflation is not enough. While the structural context of child welfare problems is fundamental, the present crisis unprecedented in terms of its length, depth and pervasiveness has severely aggravated the situation of children of several social groups and has certainly slowed down improvements. The argument that ‘poor people are so poor that they do not have access even to the world crisis’ may have some validity in regions such as Latin America where the economic crisis has primarily affected the urban middle-lower classes engaged in the formal economic sector, or for India’s rural poor masses who are largely insulated from the world economy. On the other hand, the sharp fall in incomes and severe cutbacks in social services caused or aggravated by the international recession are in many parts of the world swelling the army of the unemployed who have less access to social services and who tend to fall below a given poverty line. Clearly, the children of these new poor, as well as those of the ‘old’ poor,