“Association between Median Household Income, State Medicaid Expansion Status, and COVID-19 Outcomes Across US Counties”

ObjectiveThe relationship between socioeconomic status and its interaction with States Medicaid-expansion policies on COVID-19 outcomes across United States (US) counties are uncertain. To determine the association between median-household-income and its interaction with State Medicaid-expansion status on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in US counties MethodsLongitudinal, retrospective analysis of 3142 US counties (including District of Columbia) to study the relationship between County-level median-household-income (defined by US Census Bureaus Small-Area-Income-and-Poverty-Estimates) and COVID-19 incidence and mortality per 100000 of the population in US counties from January 20, 2020 through December 6, 2020. County median-household-income was log-transformed and stratified by quartiles. Medicaid-expansion status was defined by US States Medicaid-expansion adoption as of first reported US COVID-19 infection, January 20, 2020. Multilevel mixed-effects generalized-linear-model with negative binomial distribution and log link function compared quartiles of median-household-income and COVID-19 incidence and mortality, reported as incidence-risk-ratio (IRR) and mortality-risk-ratio (MRR), respectively. Models adjusted for county socio-demographic and comorbidity conditions, population density, and hospitals, with a random intercept for states. Multiplicative interaction tested for Medicaid-expansion*income quartiles on COVID-19 incidence and mortality. ResultsThere was no significant difference in COVID-19 incidence across counties by income quartiles or by Medicaid expansion status. Conversely, significant differences exist between COVID-19 mortality by income quartiles and by Medicaid expansion status. The association between income quartiles and COVID-19 mortality was significant only in counties from non-Medicaid-expansion states but not significant in counties from Medicaid-expansion states (P<0.01 for interaction). For non-Medicaid-expansion states, counties in the lowest income quartile had a 41% increase in COVID-19 mortality compared to counties in the highest income quartile (MRR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.25-1.59). Conclusions and RelevanceMedian-household-income was not related to COVID-19 incidence but negatively related to COVID-19 mortality in US counties of states without Medicaid-expansion. It was unrelated to COVID-19 mortality in counties of states that adopted Medicaid-expansion. These findings suggest that expanded healthcare coverage should be investigated further to attenuate the excessive COVID-19 mortality risk associated with low-income communities. Key FindingsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSIs there a relationship between COVID-19 outcomes (incidence and mortality) and household income and status of Medicaid expansion of US counties? FindingsIn this longitudinal, retrospective analysis of 3142 US counties, we found no significant difference in COVID-19 incidence across US counties by quartiles of household income. However, counties with lower median household income had a higher risk of COVID-19 mortality, but only in non-Medicaid expansion states. This relationship was not significant in Medicaid expansion states. MeaningExpanded healthcare coverage through Medicaid expansion should be investigated as an avenue to attenuate the excessive COVID-19 mortality risk associated with low-income communities.