cssi/SciSciGPT-SciSciNet huggingface dataset:
Almost Envy-Free Repeated Matching in Two-Sided Markets

A two-sided market consists of two sets of agents, each of whom have preferences over the other (Airbnb, Upwork, Lyft, Uber, etc.). We propose and analyze a repeated matching problem, where some set of matches occur on each time step, and our goal is to ensure fairness with respect to the cumulative allocations over an infinite time horizon. Our main result is a polynomial-time algorithm for additive, symmetric (\(v_i(j) = v_j(i)\)), and binary (\(v_i(j) \in \{a,1\}\)) valuations that both (1) guarantees envy-freeness up to a single match (EF1) and (2) selects a maximum weight matching on each time step. Thus for this class of valuations, fairness can be achieved without sacrificing economic efficiency. This result holds even for dynamic valuations, i.e., valuations that change over time. Although symmetry is a strong assumption, we show that this result cannot be extended to asymmetric binary valuations: (1) and (2) together are impossible even when valuations do not change over time, and for dynamic valuations, even (1) alone is impossible. To our knowledge, this is the first analysis of envy-freeness in a repeated matching setting.
Instability of Centralized Markets

Centralized markets reduce search for buyers and sellers. Their “thickness” increases the chance of order execution at nearly competitive prices. In spite of the incentives to consolidate, some markets, securities markets and on‐line advertising being the most notable, are fragmented into multiple trading venues. We argue that fragmentation is an inevitable feature of any centralized market except in special circumstances.
Analysis of Recreational and Last Mile E-Scooter Utilization in Different Land Use Regions

With rise in shared e-scooter deployment, there is growing interest in evaluating the proportion of recreational vs. non-recreational use so that public agencies can develop appropriate policies and infrastructure support. In the Indianapolis metropolitan area from September 2018 to May 2019, approximately 728,000 e-scooter trips covered 1,250,457 km (777,000 miles) during 162,000 hours of use. This paper focused on three regions with distinct land-use patterns that had 509,241 trips covering 879,209 km (546,317 miles) during 118,440 hours of use. A technique was proposed that compared the ratio of travelled distance to the linear distance between trip start and end points. Trips with ratio larger than 2.0 were assumed to be recreational. As agencies begin to adopt policies and infrastructure support, we believe the methodology described in this paper will be an important consideration for better understanding of the proportion of non-recreational “last-mile” users versus recreational users. The analysis will be helpful for agencies and decision makers in shaping better policies for the safe integration of e-scooters into urban ecosystems.
Obstacle Avoidance Using a Monocular Camera

A collision avoidance system based on simple digital cameras would help enable the safe integration of small UAVs into crowded, low-altitude environments. In this work, we present an obstacle avoidance system for small UAVs that uses a monocular camera with a hybrid neural network and path planner controller. The system is comprised of a vision network for estimating depth from camera images, a high-level control network, a collision prediction network, and a contingency policy. This system is evaluated on a simulated UAV navigating an obstacle course in a constrained flight pattern. Results show the proposed system achieves low collision rates while maintaining operationally relevant flight speeds.
Financial statement effects of adopting international accounting standards: the case of Germany

Using a sample of German firms, we investigate the financial statement effects of adopting International Accounting Standards (IAS) during 1998 through 2002. We find that total assets and book value of equity, as well as variability of book value and income, are significantly higher under IAS than under German GAAP (HGB). In addition, book value and income are no more value relevant under IAS than under HGB, and HGB (IAS) income is highly persistent (transitory). Finally, we find weak evidence that IAS income exhibits greater conditional conservatism than HGB income. Our results are consistent with the fair-value (income smoothing) orientation of IAS (HGB).
Voices From the Field: California Victims’ Rights in a Post-Realignment World

On October 2, 2011, Assembly Bill 109, the 2011 Public Safety Realignment, went into effect and comprehensively changed the way California manages its criminal justice system. AB 109 shifted the primary responsibility for managing non-serious, non-sexual, non-violent offenses to the counties, meaning that thousands of offenders are now serving their time in county jail rather than state prison. Nearly every county and state level criminal justice agency was involved in the design and implementation of Realignment, in order to ensure that every need was met. Victims, however, were not at the table. This article attempts to bring victim service providers back into the conversation surrounding Realignment. We conducted interviews with victim service providers on the ground to find out how Realignment has affected their jobs, and we got two resounding answers. First, Realignment has muddled the collection of restitution. It’s unclear who is responsible for collecting the money when, and many jails do not have the infrastructure required to collect from individuals it has incarcerated. Second, the victim notification required under Marsy’s Law is not being provided, again because of confusion about responsibilities and a lack of the necessary infrastructure.We present a series of suggestions put forth by our interviewees to bring Realignment into compliance with the requirements of Marsy’s Law. In the end, these suggestions boil down to two basic recommendations: 1) victim service providers should be granted a voting seat on the Community Corrections Partnership in every county, and 2) the legislature needs to clarify which county actor is responsible for the implementation of which victim services in a post-Realignment world.
To Lie or Not to Lie—Where is the Question?

The professor wondered how he should respond to an issue raised by his students. The students, at the Harvard Business School, were debating a case in which a major customer called the CEO of a troubled airline and asked whether the airline would still be around in a few months. The CEO answered that he was not sure. Many students felt that he should have lied. His candor, they said, endangered the future of the airline.
The Imperial Judiciary: Occupational Hazards of a Constitutional Society

Constitutional law is largely the product of judicial line-drawing that charts the perimeters of government power, delineates the contours of personal rights and liberties and thus traces official bounds of freedom and oppression. It is a well-established function of the judiciary "to say what the law is." The etching of constitutional lines, nonetheless, is a treacherous process that often elicits substantial dispute and distortion. Controversy regarding the nature of the judiciary's workings and the extent of its role has persisted throughout the Supreme Court's history.
I Scratched Yours: The Prevalence of Reciprocation in Feedback Provision on eBay

Many online systems for bilateral transactions elicit performance feedback from both transacting partners. Such bilateral feedback giving introduces strategic considerations. We focus on reciprocity in the giving of feedback: how prevalent a strategy of giving feedback is only if feedback is first received from one's trading partner. The overall level of feedback activity clearly depends on the prevalence of the reciprocation strategy: in a market with many reciprocators and few unconditional feedback providers, the equilibrium quantity of feedback can be quite low. We estimate the prevalence of such reciprocation in one market, eBay. Reciprocation cannot be directly distinguished from late feedback that was not conditioned on the partner having provided feedback. We develop a model that distinguishes the two by exploiting information about the timing of feedback provision when the partner does not provide feedback. We find that buyers and sellers on eBay used the reciprocate only strategy about 20-23% of the time. We also measure the extent to which the prevalence of these strategies changes with the experience levels of the two parties and with the item price.
That Squeezing Feeling: The Interest Burden and Public Debt Stabilization

The paper explores the extent to which the pressure of debt service on other spending items may magnify governments’ concern for debt dynamics, independently of the public debt level itself. Our empirical analysis identifies thresholds of interest bill indicators beyond which governments appear to intensify efforts to curb the debt trajectory. Hence, in the current context of historically high public debts, a country experiencing high and rising borrowing costs and interest payments would be more likely to enact a more aggressive fiscal consolidation than one benefitting from persistently low interest rates – even though both consolidation paths would be consistent with solvency. This could be an important consideration when setting the appropriate pace of normalization of monetary policy.
Bank Power and Cash Holdings: Evidence from Japan

Using industrial firms from the United States, German, and Japan, we examine the effect of bank power on cash holdings. We show that Japanese firms hold more cash than U.S. or German firms. We also document that Japanese cash balances are affected by the monopoly power of banks. During periods with powerful banks, firms' high cash holdings are consistent with banks extracting rents. When banks weakened, Japanese cash levels became more like U.S. firms. We conclude that strong Japanese banks persuade firms to hold large cash balances. This is contrary to widely held beliefs about the Japanese governance system. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.
A Temporal Analysis of Quarterly Earnings Thresholds: Propensities and Valuation Consequences

Applying a Burgstahler and Dichev (1997)/Degeorge et al. (1999) type methodology to quarterly data for the 1985–2002 time period, we show that, since the mid‐1990s, but not before then, managers seek to avoid negative quarterly earnings surprises more than to avoid either quarterly losses or quarterly earnings decreases. Our findings suggest that the quarterly earnings threshold hierarchy proposed by Degeorge et al. (1999) does not apply to recent years, and that managers' claim that avoiding quarterly earnings decreases is the threshold they most seek to achieve (Graham et al. 2004) is inconsistent with their actions. We provide an intuitively appealing economic rationale for why the shift in threshold hierarchy occurred; since the mid‐1990s, but not before then, investors unambiguously rewarded (penalized) firms for reporting quarterly earnings meeting (missing) analysts' estimates more than they did for meeting (missing) the other two thresholds. We provide several explanations for why investors unambi...
Boys don't cry: Cognitive load and priming increase stereotypic sex differences in emotion memory

Abstract The results of three experiments provide evidence that the relative accessibility of stereotypes about sex difference influences people's memory of very recent emotions. Being under high rather than low cognitive load caused females compared with males to recall experiencing more intense emotional reactions to saddening stimuli (Experiments 1 and 2), and relatively less intense reactions to angering stimuli (Experiment 2). Being directly primed with stereotypes about sex differences and being under high cognitive load both caused females to recall more intense reactions to saddening stimuli compared with females who were neither primed with stereotypes nor under cognitive load (Experiment 3). These results imply that the relative accessibility of stereotypes influences memories of emotion in a manner similar to stereotypes' influence on social perception. Implications of these findings for theories of emotion memory and for self-perpetuating stereotypes about emotional sex differences are discussed.
The alpha factor asset pricing model: A parable

Recent empirical studies use the returns of attribute-sorted portfolios of common stocks as if they represent risk factors in an asset pricing model. If the attributes are chosen following an empirically observed relation to the cross-section of stock returns, such portfolios will appear to be useful risk factors, even when the attributes are completely unrelated to risk. We illustrate this result using a parable and argue that the moral of the story is important in practice. ( 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
International Law and the Development Encounter: Violence and Resistance at the Margins

My lecture concerns a special type of violence. I refer to the violence of an idea that has had an enormous hold on our collective imaginations since the end of World War II, and which has transformed into a discourse by systematically ordering the management, reproduction and control of social reality in the so-called Third World. I am referring to the idea of development. The magnitude of the violence unleashed by development is enormous: Over the last fifty years, millions have been uprooted from their homelands, communities have been destroyed, and the environment has been desecrated in the process of transforming "traditional" or "peasant" economies into "modern" economies. Many more millions have been the subject of state and private violence in the name of modernization and development. Even interstate violence has been heavily influenced by the struggle between nations over the "master variables" of population, resources and technology. Development has been an all encompassing Weltanschau ung that has engendered conflict and violence across all frontiers. This presentation is an attempt to unravel the political, ideological and social character of the complex interactions between international law and development, understood as two discourses that came together at the end of World War II, and the particular ways in which that interaction was received by First World and Third World international lawyers. I make two interrelated claims. First, I claim that international law has played a crucial, perhaps even central, part in the evolution of the ideology and practice of development in the post-World War II period. This, I claim, has been overlooked by development writers, as well as international lawyers in general. On the one hand, development writers have generally treated international law, if at all, as epiphenomenal?as mainstream development thinking treats law in general. International lawyers have, on the other hand, seen development as a specific set of socioeconomic transformations occurring in the so-called newly independent states, to which international law must somehow adjust?for example, by acquiring a "social character," in the words of Wolfgang Friedman1?instead of understanding international law as deeply implicated in and intertwined with the very project of development. This is partly because the new international law of the postwar period, with its focus on the status of individuals and a truly global community, was seen as constituting a clean epistemological break with the prewar international law's subservience to power and ethnocentrism. This image, I claim, is wrong. Instead, I claim that the "new" international law was as much caught up in the discursive and ideological embrace of modernity as the prewar colonial international law, mainly through the institutions and practices of development that were invented to control, manage, order and reproduce social reality in the so called Third World.
Property as Process: How Innovation Markets Select Innovation Regimes

It is commonly asserted that innovation markets suffer from excessive intellectualproperty protections, which in turn stifle output. But empirical inquiries can neither confirm nor deny this assertion. Under the “agnostic” assumption that we cannot assess directly whether intellectual-property coverage is excessive, an alternative query is proposed: can the market assess if any “propertization outcome” is excessive and then undertake actions to yield a socially preferable outcome? Grounded in the “bottom up” methodology of new institutional economics, this process-based approach takes the view that innovator populations make rent-seeking investments that continuously “select” among a range of “innovation regimes” that trade off securing innovation gains (which tends to demand more property) against reducing transaction costs and associated innovation losses (which tends to demand less). If we can identify the conditions under which privately-interested investments in lobbying, enforcement, and transactional arrangements are likely to yield socially-interested propertization outcomes, then the underlying datum at issue—whether there is “too much” intellectual property—can be determined indirectly at some reasonable degree of approximation. This approach identifies a “property trap” effect where, under high coordination-cost conditions, the regime selection mechanism is prone to fail: litigation risk and associated transaction-cost burdens drive innovators to move “too fast” to implement a state-provided property regime. Conversely, under low coordination-cost conditions, the regime selection mechanism is prone to succeed: adversely-affected entities that rely substantially on outside sources for innovation inputs have incentives to undertake actions that weaken property-rights coverage, including constrained enforcement, forming cooperative arrangements, or even forfeiting intellectual-property assets to the public domain. Counterintuitively, these relationships imply that large firms that rely substantially on outside sources for innovation inputs tend to have the strongest incentives and capacities to take actions that correct overpropertization outcomes. Preliminary evidence is drawn from the semiconductor, financial-services and information-technology industries. BARNETT_836.DOC 1/26/2010 12:00:26 PM 384 jonathan m. barnett Property as Process: How Innovation Markets Select
Outspoken Insiders: Political Connections and Citizen Participation in Authoritarian China

Few political systems are completely closed to citizen participation, but in nondemocratic systems and developing democracies, such participation may come with risks. In these contexts where fear and uncertainty may be high, why do some citizens still take action and make complaints to authorities? The resource mobilization model identifies the importance of time, money, and civic skills as resources that are necessary for participation. In this paper, we build on this model and argue that political connections—close personal ties to someone working in government—can also constitute a critical resource, especially in contexts with weak democratic institutions. Using data from both urban and rural China, we find that individuals with political connections are more likely to contact authorities with complaints about government public services, despite the fact that they do not have higher levels of dissatisfaction with public service provision. We conduct various robustness checks, including a sensitivity analysis, and show that this relationship is unlikely to be driven by an incorrect model specification or unobserved confounding variables.
Truthful Mechanisms for Medical Surplus Product Allocation

Problem definition: We analyze a resource allocation problem faced by medical surplus recovery organizations (MSROs) that recover medical surplus products to fulfill the needs of underserved health...
Hydropower: Time for a Small Makeover

Over the last several years, hydropower has supplied between 6 and 8 percent of the electricity consumed in the United States.2 It is the most abundant, most efficient, and least expensive source of renewable electricity generation on earth.3 Yet, when most people think of hydropower they think of huge dams, dead fish, and a destroyed environment. Unfortunately, this perception has on too many occasions been a reality.4 Hydropower needs a new PR department. It is time for a "small" makeover. To embrace the full potential of sustainable hydropower, investors and regulatory agencies must look to develop small, localized facilities on existing infrastructure. Unlike large conventional hydropower, small and low flow hydropower facilities require less water flow and can be placed in conduits, canals, locks, and other areas that are less affected by climate change decreases in river levels.5 The environmental impact of small hydropower is generally minimal.6 It diverts less water, and does not require creation of dams and reservoirs.! Furthermore, small hydropower can be developed near populated areas, especially if located on existing infrastructure, which makes it a valuable distributed generation energy source. This Article will discuss some of the advantages of distributed generation over centralized generation. Distributed generation is generally cost-efficient and environmentally-friendly because it takes up very little space and requires little to no construction of transmission and distribution systems.8 It is also less susceptible to blackout and damage as a result of storms, which are becoming more frequent and severe due to a changing
Macroeconomic-Driven Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities

We develop a three-factor no-arbitrage model for valuing mortgage-backed securities in which we solve for the implied prepayment function from the cross-section of market prices. This model closely fits the cross-section of mortgage-backed security prices without needing to specify an econometric prepayment model. We find that implied prepayments are generally higher than actual prepayments, providing direct evidence of significant macroeconomic-driven prepayment risk premiums in mortgage-backed security prices. We also find evidence that mortgage-backed security prices were significantly affected by Fannie Mae credit risk and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs. Received May 10, 2016; editorial decision September 22, 2017 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh.
Access to management and the informativeness of analyst research

Abstract We examine whether access to management at broker-hosted investor conferences leads to more informative research by analysts. We find analyst recommendation changes have larger immediate price impacts when the analyst׳s firm has a conference-hosting relation with the company. The effect increases with hosting frequency and is strongest in the days following the conference. Conference-hosting brokers also issue more informative, accurate, and timely earnings forecasts than non-hosts. Our findings suggest that access to management remains an important source of analysts׳ informational advantage in the post-Regulation Fair Disclosure world.
Natural rights in a positive world: do habeas rights extend to non-citizens detained abroad?

Academics and practitioners sit worlds apart, despite daily engagement with the same issues. This article seeks to engage both communities in meaningful legal discourse by putting forward as a basis for argument a counter-factual variation of the fact patterns from recently decided United States case law. Illustrated by this hypothetical scenario is an inherently unfair legal arrangement whereby the Executive assumes virtually unlimited power and attempts to deny, entirely, the non-citizen detained abroad any voice. This article examines the ‘unitary Executive’ from a jurisdictional perspective of habeas corpus and places the issues raised by the Executive detainment of non-citizen ‘enemy combatants’ into a due process framework of affirmative constitutional protections. This article argues that the extension of habeas protection to those detained outside the United States will bring equilibrium to the separation of powers so that the global community may begin to cure the continued injustice for those detained by Executive Order.
Risk Premium of Social Media Sentiment

This research investigates the predictive capability of sentiment extrapolated from three dictionaries: financial, social media, and mood states. The findings show that 1) through the Fama–MacBeth regression method, social media–based sentiment measures can be used as risk factors in an asset pricing framework; 2) these sentiment measures have predictive capability when used as features in a machine learning framework, and 3) adjusting returns for market effects results in positive alpha.
Re-evaluating Large Multiple-Defendant Criminal Prosecutions

Over the last decade, in conjunction with America’s “tough on crime” movement, there has been an ever-increasing focus on recognizing the perceived dangers of group criminal activity. There are many advantages to the investigation and prosecution of group criminal behavior. Still, undoubtedly there are also many issues concerning the process of multiple-defendant cases, specifically the procedural and constitutional guarantees used in connection with such prosecutions. In this Article, the author looks to the way those charged with crimes involving group criminal behavior are prosecuted. Concerns will be raised in two key areas: (1) Have we extended too much power to state and federal prosecutors in determining where to bring such individuals to trial; and (2) Should the courts scrutinize far more carefully the joining together of these defendants for trial?
Death in Prison: The Right Death Penalty Compromise

The death penalty today provides virtually none of the benefits its advocates proffer as justifications for its existence. The tiny number of death sentences imposed, the even tinier number actually carried out, the enormous drain on public resources, and the decade-long delays that inevitably occur thoroughly undermine any deterrent or retributive benefits today’s death penalty might otherwise provide. In this paper, I argue for a compromise position that promises to better serve penal purposes and that will save states money at the same time: abandon the current dysfunctional death penalty in favor of a new ultimate sentence: death-in-prison. A sentence of death-in-prison would be exactly what it says: a prisoner sentenced to death-in-prison would remain in prison until he or she died. Death-in-prison would be a kind of hybrid sentence: like life in prison without possibility of parole (“LWOP”), death-in-prison would entail lifetime incarceration but no affirmative state action to terminate the prisoner’s life, but death-in-prison would also share several features of the conventional death penalty. As with the conventional death penalty, a special penalty trial would be needed to impose the ultimate death-in-prison sentence. In addition, persons sentenced to death-in-prison might continue to serve their sentences in special segregated “death rows.” Death-in-prison sentences would also be imposed with all the magisterial weightiness of conventional death sentences. Persons so sentenced would be told, like those in conventional death penalty states, that the punishment for their crime is the ultimate one — death. If adopted, death-in-prison would reduce criminal justice expenditures, facilitate community healing, discourage divisive and ineffective commutation campaigns, and diminish wrongful executions, without forgoing what is arguably the greatest benefit of the current death penalty: the expressive value of imposing a “death” rather than a “life” sentence on highly culpable offenders.
The kid's speech: The effect of stuttering on human capital acquisition

Abstract A number of studies have shown that childhood speech disorders such as stuttering are associated with lower test scores and educational attainment. However, it is unclear whether these associations are causal in nature or whether they can be explained by difficult-to-measure heterogeneity at the community, family, or individual level. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health and ordinary least squares, we show that stuttering is negatively associated with high school grades, the probability of high school graduation, and the probability of college attendance. However, empirical specifications with family fixed effects or controls for learning disabilities such as Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder suggest that these associations can, in large part, be explained by difficult-to-measure heterogeneity.
Administrative Unit Proliferation

Numerous developing countries have substantially increased their number of subnational administrative units in recent years. The literature on this phenomenon is, nonetheless, small and suffers from several theoretical and methodological shortcomings: in particular, a unit of analysis problem that causes past studies to mistakenly de-emphasize the importance of local actors. We posit that administrative unit proliferation occurs where and when there is a confluence of interests between the national executive and local citizens and elites from areas that are politically, economically, and ethnically marginalized. We argue further that although the proliferation of administrative units often accompanies or follows far-reaching decentralization reforms, it likely results in a recentralization of power; the proliferation of new local governments fragments existing units into smaller ones with lower relative intergovernmental bargaining power and administrative capacity. We find support for these arguments using original data from Uganda.
Soft supersymmetry breaking, scalar top-charm mixing and Higgs signatures

Abstract The squark mass-matrix from the soft supersymmetry (SUSY) breaking sector contains a rich flavor-mixing structure that allows O (1) mixings among top- and charm-squarks while being consistent with all the existing theoretical and experimental bounds. We formulate a minimal flavor-changing-neutral current scheme in which the squark mixings arise from the non-diagonal scalar trilinear interactions. This feature can be realized in a class of new models with a horizontal U (1) H symmetry which generates realistic quark-mass matrices and provides a solution to the SUSY μ -problem. Finally, without using the mass-insertion approximation, we analyze SUSY radiative corrections to the H ± bc and h 0 tc couplings, and show that these couplings can reveal exciting new discovery channels for the Higgs boson signals at the Tevatron and the LHC.
Infant Mortality in Uganda: Determinants, Trends and the Millennium Development Goals

Unusually for an African economy, Uganda's growth has been rapid and sustained for an extended period of time. Further, this growth has clearly translated into substantial declines in poverty for all socioeconomic groups and in all regions of the country. Despite this, there is concern in the country that other indicators of well-being are not improving at the same rate as incomes. This paper studies one such indicator, infant mortality. We use three rounds of the Uganda Demographic and Health Surveys to construct a national time series for infant mortality over a long period of time, 1974--99. We also use these survey data to model the determinants of infant mortality and, on the basis of those results, to examine the likelihood that Uganda will meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving infant mortality by 2015. Key results of the paper include: (1) household assets and infant mortality are significantly negatively correlated, but the correlation is small, so even if Uganda's rapid growth were to continue for another decade, the impact on infant mortality rate (IMR) will be small up to 2015; (2) after controlling for individual, household and community determinants, there is no discernable time trend (up or down) in infant mortality in Uganda; (3) observed improvements in mothers' primary school graduation rates will have a significant impact on IMRs. Plausibly attainable improvements in mothers' secondary graduation rates will have a lesser impact, largely because the improvements in graduation rates are not so great as at the primary level; (4) improvements in vaccinations for childhood diseases and in general health care services can also cause significant reductions in IMRs and (5) nevertheless, even under optimistic assumptions about improvements in health care and education, Uganda will not achieve the MDG for infant mortality. Copyright 2008 The author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.
Remeasuring Business Cycles

This article evaluates the consistency of the NBER business cycle reference dates. It finds that the early reference dates are derived from detrended data, whereas the dates after 1927 are derived from data in levels. To evaluate the importance of this and other changes in technique, I derive a simple algorithm that matches the postwar NBER peaks and troughs closely. When this algorithm is applied to data for 1884 to 1940, the new prewar dates differ systematically from the NBER dates and challenge the conventional view that recessions have gotten shorter over time. The business cycle reference dates for the United States produced by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NI3ER) play a crucial role in forming impressions about macroeconomic fluctuations. These dates, which show the peaks and troughs of economic activity from the mid-1800s to today, are often taken as the definitive summary of whether conditions were good or bad in some particular era. They are also a much used tool of macroeconomic analysis. The NBER reference dates are frequently employed, for example, to analyze how some particular variable behaves in relation to the business cycle.1 Finally, the NBER peaks and troughs have been influential in forming impressions about possible changes in business cycles over time. For example, the NBER dates are often used to measure the length of expansions and contractions in certain eras. Since the NBER dates for the United States show that expansions have become longer over time and contractions have become shorter, many economists have inferred that economic fluctuations have become less severe between the prewar and postwar eras.2 One reason that the NBER reference dates have been so influential is simply that they are very convenient. They provide a quick shorthand that economists can use to summarize a very complex phenomenon. More fundamentally, the NBER dates have been influential because they are thought to be reliable. The amount of work that went into their
How Do Auditors Respond to CEO Narcissism? Evidence from External Audit Fees

SYNOPSIS: Prior research on CEO narcissism has focused on outcomes related to the CEO's firm. We extend this literature by examining how an important counterparty—the firm's external auditor—respon...
Consumer Credit and Competition: The Puzzle of Competitive Credit Markets

(2010). Consumer Credit and Competition: The Puzzle of Competitive Credit Markets. European Competition Journal: Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 68-89.
Race and American Indian Tribal Nationhood

As American Indian tribal nations develop the capacity to govern their own citizens and engage in substantial economic and political activities with noncitizens, they may encounter major roadblocks. Tribal nations, like other nations, seek to regulate the activities of all persons within their territorial jurisdictions by exercising the power to tax and prosecute those persons, whether citizens or not. The United States Supreme Court has expressed strong skepticism about the possibility of tribal nations asserting authority over nonmembers and has placed tight controls on the authority of tribal nations to regulate the activities of nontribal citizens.
A Dynamic Specific-Factors Model of International Trade

In a dynamic economy land and capital serve not only as factors of production but as assets which individuals use to transfer income from working periods to retirement. Changes in the terms of trade and in the endowments of fixed factors do not necessarily have the same effects on factor prices and on the composition of output as they do in a static framework. Changes in these variables affect both total savings and the amount of savings that is diverted toward investment in capital. Results derived from the traditional specific-factors model are more likely to emerge when the sector using land as a factor of production has a higher labor share than the sector using capital. In this case the land-using sector dominates factor markets more than asset markets. Once the roles for land and capital as assets are recognized, the possibility of natural resource booms that reduce steady-state welfare arises. At the same time, an increase in population can raise steady-state welfare.
Patent Trolls: Evidence from Targeted Firms

We provide the first large-sample evidence on the behavior and impact of nonpracticing entities (NPEs) in the intellectual property space. We find that, on average, NPEs appear to behave as opportu...
An Economic Theory of Mortgage Redemption Laws

Redemption laws give mortgagors the right to redeem their property following default for a statutorily set period of time. This article develops a theory that explains these laws as a means of protecting landowners against the loss of nontransferable values associated with their land. A longer redemption period reduces the risk that this value will be lost but also increases the likelihood of default. The optimal redemption period balances these effects. Empirical analysis of cross-state data from the early twentieth century suggests that these factors, in combination with political considerations, explain the existence and length of redemption laws.
The Effects of Broadband Internet Expansion on Labor Market Outcomes

The author analyzes the effects of the expansion of broadband Internet access from 1999 to 2007 on labor market outcomes throughout the United States. Recent federal policy programs have allocated ...
Legalization Conflicts and Reliance Defenses

This Article addresses an open question of pressing practical import— whether people and businesses operating in the shadow of a legalization conflict have a reliance defense. A legalization conflict arises when conduct is decriminalized by one authority while remaining criminalized under another legal regime. For example, drugs, guns, undocumented immigrants, and giving legal advice or financial support for certain activities, may be both illegal and legal under conflicting regimes. People plan their lives, hopes, and financial affairs around legalization laws and decrees. If people take actions now in reliance, will they face sanctions later? The question is of great import for many people and businesses, as well as the lawyers who advise them. The Article argues that reliance defenses should be available when governmental actors in charge of enforcing the criminal regime expressly acquiesce in the competing legalization. In such cases, reliance is reasonable and estoppel is required lest people or businesses be lulled by the statements of actors charged with administering the law into a snare of sanctions. Potential objections regarding privileging governmental lawlessness and the danger of giving people a normative choice of law that enables strategic gamesmanship are addressed.  Henry M. Jackson Professor of Law, University of Washington School of Law. Many thanks to Tom Andrews, Jim Hardisty, Dean Kawamoto, Cheryl Nyberg, James Stewart, and Kathryn Watts for valuable advice and comments. Thanks also to the participants at the ACLU Northwest Civil Liberties Conference and the International Drug Policy Reform Conference for great insights and comments and to Jennifer Brooks, Zachary Miller, Patrick Paterson, and Alec Moen for excellent insights and editing. Washington University Open Scholarship 908 WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY LAW REVIEW [VOL. 92:907
Investment Tax Credit in an Open Economy

Abstract This paper contrasts the effects of a permanent and temporary investment tax credit (ITC) in an open economy. In both cases an ITC will initially stimulate investment, while reducing employment and output, and generating a current account deficit. If the ITC is permanent, the accumulation of capital leads to a higher equilibrium capital stock, higher employment and output, and a reduction in the economy's stock of net credit. If the ITC is temporary, after its removal the economy eventually moves to a new steady-state equilibrium having a lower permanent capital stock and employment, together with a higher stock of net credit.
Consumer boycotts: The impact of the Iraq war on French wine sales in the U.S.

The French opposition to the war in Iraq in early 2003 prompted calls for a boycott of French wine in the US. We measure the magnitude of consumers’ participation in the boycott, and look at basic evidence of who participates. Conservative estimates indicate that the boycott resulted in 26% lower weekly sales at its peak, and 13% lower sales over the 6 months period that we estimate the boycott lasted. Although theory suggests consumers would not participate in boycotts due to a free-rider problem, these findings indicate that businesses should be concerned that consumers may boycott their products. We also find that neither political preferences nor media attention are important determinants of boycott participation.
Introduction: What Role Can Experiments Play in Research on Regulation?

Experimental research follows well-established procedures and design rules. Subjects are recruited to participate in a study, and report at a specified time and place. Typically subjects are undergraduate students, though if experience with a particular market or institution is thought to be an important factor, other kinds of subjects may also be recruited to participate. Subjects are given specific instructions, make decisions that result in differential payoffs, and, importantly, they are paid what they earn in the experiment. While the earliest market experiments (e.g., Smith 1962) were conducted using hand-run procedures and written forms, most contemporary market experiments like those in these issue are sufficiently complex that a computerized environment is necessary. Other types of experiments involving valuation or simple games are frequently run by hand. The typical experimental data set has a panel structure, with a time series of decisions for each of a set of subjects, and is analyzed accordingly.
The Evolution of Federal Spending Controls: A Brief Overview

This article reviews spending controls in the federal government over the past two decades. During this period, federal spending has grown significantly, despite budgetary controls. The article discusses various Impoundment Control acts throughout this time period with a focus on the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Act of 1985 and the budget reforms of the 1990s. The article also gives an overview of whether current spending and deficit control procedures are inadequate and, if so, what stronger measures may be adopted.
Time-Varying Sharpe Ratios and Market Timing

This paper documents predictable time-variation in stock market Sharpe ratios. Predetermined financial variables are used to estimate both the conditional mean and volatility of equity returns, and these moments are combined to estimate the conditional Sharpe ratio, or the Sharpe ratio is estimated directly as a linear function of these same variables. In sample, estimated conditional Sharpe ratios show substantial time-variation that coincides with the phases of the business cycle. Generally, Sharpe ratios are low at the peak of the cycle and high at the trough. In an out-of-sample analysis, using 10-year rolling regressions, relatively naive market-timing strategies that exploit this predictability can identify periods with Sharpe ratios more than 45% larger than the full sample value. In spite of the well-known predictability of volatility and the more controversial forecastability of returns, it is the latter factor that accounts primarily for both the in-sample and out-of-sample results.
How Computers Have Changed the Wage Structure: Evidence from Microdata, 1984–1989

This paper uses Current Population Survey data to examine whether workers who use a computer at work earn a higher wage rate than otherwise similar workers who do not use a computer at work. A variety of models are estimated to try to correct for unobserved variables that might be correlated with job-related computer use and earnings. Estimates suggest that workers who use computers on their job earn 10 to 15 percent higher wages. Additionally, the expansion in computer use in the 1980s can account for one-third to one-half of the increase in the rate of return to education.
The Demise of Circumstantial Proof in Employment Discrimination Litigation: St. Mary's Honor Center v. Hicks, Pretext, and the 'Personality' Excuse

Since the enactment of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 the courts have struggled to define the burdens of proof surrounding the central issue of an employer's alleged discriminatory intent. What evolved was the McDonnell Douglas framework, premised upon established concepts of circumstantial proof and inference. The approach permits plaintiffs lacking direct proof to nonetheless establish a violation of the Act by proving that the employer's explanation of the challenged decision was pretextual.In St. Mary's Honor Center v. Hicks, a closely-divided Supreme Court substantially altered the McDonnell Douglas framework. Discrediting the reasons offered by the employer for its decision no longer suffices to establish a violation of Title VII. Rather, plaintiffs must somehow prove that the pretext was offered to hide discrimination, and not for some other motivation. Moreover, the trier of fact is permitted to construct its own explanation of the events even though that scenario was not offered by either party at trial. As a result, plaintiffs must be prepared to discredit stated and unstated non-discriminatory reasons for the employer's action.Professor Brodin criticizes the sharp move away from McDonnell Douglas and argues that it will distort the fact-finding process and deprive victims of bias of a meaningful opportunity to enforce their rights to equal employment opportunity.
Evolving Economics: Synthesis

This paper reviews the literature of behavioral-, experimental-, and neuro-economics research with the ultimatum and the dictator games. “One may wonder whether Adam Smith, were he working today, would not be a neuroeconomi[st]” Aldo Rustichini 2005
Coherence Versus Elicitability in Measures of Market Risk

The Basel II and III accords prescribe distinct measures of market risk in the trading book of regulated financial institutions. Basel II has embraced value-at-risk (VaR) analysis, while Basel III has suggested that VaR be replaced by a different measure of risk, expected shortfall. These measures of risk suffer from mutually irreconcilable flaws. VaR fails to satisfy the conditions required of coherent measures of risk. Conversely, expected shortfall fails the mathematical requirements for elicitability. Mathematical limitations therefore force a choice between theoretically sound aggregation of risks and reliable backtesting of risk forecasts against historical observations.This research note is a condensed version of Measuring Market Risk Under Basel II, 2.5, and III: VaR, Stressed VaR, and Expected Shortfall, a full working paper posted at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2252463.