cssi/SciSciGPT-SciSciNet huggingface dataset:
On Rhetoric and Truth: A Reply to Neil Duxbury

In his recent review of Law and Truth (Duxbury 1999), Neil Duxbury has many complimentary things to say about various aspects of my book (Patterson 1996). He notices that I make an effort to take seriously the positions of those with whom I disagree. He compliments my knowledge of the philosophical work of Wittgenstein, and notices his influence. He even states correctly the question that lies at the heart of the book, "What does it mean to say that a proposition of law is true?" But when it comes to the elaboration and evaluation of my position, Professor Duxbury misunderstands that position, and rather seriously so. I should like to correct this.
Where Have You Gone, Sherman Minton? The Decline of the Short-Term Supreme Court Justice

Against the backdrop of a decade-long wait for a Supreme Court vacancy, legal academics from across the political spectrum have recently proposed or supported significant constitutional or statutory reforms designed to limit the terms of Supreme Court justices and increase the pace of turnover at the Court. Fearing a Court that is increasingly out of touch with the national mood and staffed by justices of advanced age, advocates of term and age limits contend that the trend in Supreme Court tenures is inexorably upward. But are Supreme Court justices really serving longer now than in the past? If so, why? And what might such trends mean for Amer ican constitutional democracy? In a debate otherwise dominated by law professors-and largely without careful empirical analy sis-we place the issue of judicial tenure in historical perspective, with special attention to the institutional development of the Court, the changing politics of the appointments process and the types of individuals who emerge from it, and to a lesser extent, broader socio-demographic trends in technology and medicine. In the process, we show how proponents of reforms designed to end life tenure have ignored a significant factor influencing patterns in judicial service: the decline of the "short-term" justice. Trends in judicial tenure, we argue, cannot be explained by more justices serving unusually long terms; rather, they are driven at least in part by the fact that fewer justices are serving relatively short terms. In this article, we consider why justices have retired after only short service throughout much of history, why they rarely do so today, the conditions under which future justices might be compelled to serve shorter terms, and the democratic gains and losses associated with short-term service on the Court. In sum, by following the rise and fall of the short-term justice over the course of American political development, we offer a new perspective, grounded in political science, on an issue currently occupying the attention of lawyers, journalists, and policymakers alike.
The Impact of Early Childbearing on Schooling and Cognitive Skills among Young Women in Madagascar

Female secondary school attendance has recently increased in Sub-Saharan Africa; however, the higher likelihood of attending school after puberty has put girls at risk of becoming pregnant while attending school. Using a panel survey designed to capture the transition from adolescence to early adulthood, we analyze whether teenage pregnancy contributes to lower school attainment and cognitive skills among young women in Madagascar. We address the endogeneity between fertility and education decisions by instrumenting early pregnancy with the young woman’s access to condoms at the community level, and her exposure to condoms since she was 15 years old. We control for an extensive set of community social infrastructure characteristics to deal with the endogeneity of program placement. Our instrumental variable results show that having a child increases by 42% the likelihood of dropping out of school and decreases the chances of completing lower secondary school by 44%. This school-pregnancy related dropout is associated with a reduction of 1.1 standard deviations in the Math and French test scores. These results are consistent with hazard model estimations: delaying the first birth by a year increases the probability of current enrollment by 5% and the Math and French test scores by 0.2 standard deviations.
Contentious Veterans: China's Retired Officers Speak Out

What drives retired military officers in China toward contention? Decades of research on protest has produced little on veterans’ collection action, and even less on that by ex-officers. Newspaper ...
Moment condition tests for heavy tailed time series

Abstract We develop an asymptotically chi-squared statistic for testing moment conditions E [ m t ( θ 0 ) ] = 0 , where m t ( θ 0 ) may be weakly dependent, scalar components of m t ( θ 0 ) may have an infinite variance, and E [ m t ( θ ) ] need not exist for any θ under the alternative. Score tests are a natural application, and in general a variety of tests can be heavy-tail robustified by our method, including white noise, GARCH affects, omitted variables, distribution, functional form, causation, volatility spillover and over-identification. The test statistic is derived from a tail-trimmed sample version of the moments evaluated at a consistent plug-in θ ˆ T for θ 0 . Depending on the test in question and heaviness of tails, θ ˆ T may be any consistent estimator including sub- T 1 / 2 -convergent and/or asymptotically non-Gaussian ones, since θ ˆ T can be assured not to affect the test statistic asymptotically. We adapt bootstrap, p -value occupation time, and covariance determinant methods for selecting the trimming fractile in any sample, and apply our statistic to tests of white noise, omitted variables and volatility spillover. We find it obtains sharp empirical size and strong power, while conventional tests exhibit size distortions.
Asymptotic inference about predictive accuracy using high frequency data

Abstract This paper provides a general framework that enables many existing inference methods for predictive accuracy to be used in applications that involve forecasts of latent target variables. Such applications include the forecasting of volatility, correlation, beta, quadratic variation, jump variation, and other functionals of an underlying continuous-time process. We provide primitive conditions under which a “negligibility” result holds, and thus the asymptotic size of standard predictive accuracy tests, implemented using a high-frequency proxy for the latent variable, is controlled. An extensive simulation study verifies that the asymptotic results apply in a range of empirically relevant applications, and an empirical application to correlation forecasting is presented.
Income, health, and well-being around the world: evidence from the Gallup World Poll.

During 2006, the Gallup Organization conducted a World Poll that used an identical questionnaire for national samples of adults from 132 countries. I analyze the data on life satisfaction and on health satisfaction and look at their relationships with national income, age, and life-expectancy. Average life satisfaction is strongly related to per capita national income; each doubling of income is associated with a near one point increase in life satisfaction on a scale from 0 to 10. Unlike most previous findings, the effect holds across the range of international incomes; if anything, it is slightly stronger among rich countries. Conditional on national income, recent economic growth makes people less satisfied with their lives, improvements in life-expectancy make them more satisfied, but life-expectancy itself has little effect. In most countries, except the richest, older people are less satisfied with their lives. National income moderates the effects of aging on self-reported health, and the decline in health satisfaction with age is much stronger in poor countries than in rich countries. In line with earlier findings, people in much of Eastern Europe and in the countries of the former Soviet Union are particularly dissatisfied with their lives and with their health, and older people in those countries are much less satisfied with their lives and with their health than are younger people. HIV prevalence in Africa has little effect on Africans’ life or health satisfaction; the fraction of Kenyans who are satisfied with their personal health is the same as the fraction of Britons and higher than the fraction of Americans. The US ranks 88th out of 120 countries in the fraction of people who have confidence in their healthcare system, and has a lower score than countries such as India, Iran, Malawi, Afghanistan or Angola . While the strong relationship between life-satisfaction and income gives some credence to the measures, as do the low levels of life and health satisfaction in Eastern Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union, the lack of correlations between life and health satisfaction and health measures shows that self-assessed life or health evaluations cannot be regarded as useful summary indicators of human welfare in international comparisons.
Do Decomposed Financial Ratios Predict Stock Returns and Fundamentals Better

We investigate the prediction of excess returns and fundamentals by financial ratios, which include dividend-price ratios, earnings-price ratios, and book-to-market ratios, by decomposing financial ratios into a cyclical component and a stochastic trend component. We find both components predict excess returns and fundamentals. Cyclical components predict increases in future stock returns, while stochastic trend components predict declines in future stock returns in long horizons. This helps explain previous findings that financial ratios in the absence of decomposition find weak predictive power in short horizons and some predictive power in long horizons. We also find both components predict fundamentals.
Tax benefits of leasing

Financial economists view the tax benefits of leasing as transaction-specific functions of the tax effects of rents, depreciation, and interest attributed to lessors and lessees facing different tax rates. We offer two conceptual ways to characterize those tax benefits.
Information structures with unawareness

Abstract I construct a state space model with unawareness following [R.J. Aumann, Agreeing to disagree, Ann. Stat. 76 (1976) 1236–1239]. Dekel et al. [E. Dekel, B.L. Lipman, A. Rustichini, Standard state-space models preclude unawareness, Econometrica 66 (1998) 159–173] show that standard state space models are incapable of representing unawareness. The model circumvents the impossibility result by endowing the agent with a subjective state space that differs from the full state space when he has the unawareness problem. Information is modeled as a pair, consisting of both factual information and awareness information. The model preserves the central properties of the standard information partition model.
When vitalism is dead wrong: the discrimination against and torture of incompetent patients by compulsory life-sustaining treatment.

INTRODUCTION 2 I. BACKGROUND: THE RIGHT OF PATIENTS AND THEIR SURROGATES TO FORGO LIFESUSTAINING TREATMENT 3 II. THE TRAGIC CASE OF SHEILA POULIOT 13 A. An Epoch Death 13 B. Aftermath: Blouin v. Spitzer and the Health Care Decision Act for Mentally Retarded Persons 18 III. VITALISM IN THE LAW: HOW SHEILA POULIOT’S TRAGEDY COULD BE REPEATED IN STATES THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY 21 A. New York 22 B. Missouri 25 C. Michigan 25 D. Wisconsin 27 E. Arizona 28 F. Other Limitations by Statute: Hawaii, Mississippi, Ohio, and Utah 28 IV. PURE VITALISM IS WORSE THAN DEATH 29 A. Why Providing Life-Sustaining Treatment Is Sometimes Medically Inappropriate 30 B. Does the Forced Provision of Life-Sustaining Treatment that Is Also Medically Contraindicated and Causes Avoidable Suffering Violate the Fourteenth Amendment? 32 1. The Right to Pain Control 32 2. A Prohibition Against Compelled Medically Inappropriate Treatment..... 35 3. Countervailing State Interests 36 a. The State’s Unqualified Interest in Preserving Life 37 b. The State’s Interest in Preserving the Integrity of the Medical ......... Profession 39 c. The State’s Interests in the Prevention of Suicide 39 d. The State’s Interests in the Protection of Vulnerable Patients .......39 C. Discrimination 40
Saving Customary International Law

The theory of international law has a variety of problems, but none are more glaring than those present in customary international law (CIL). Though CIL is one of the two main sources of international law, it is both poorly understood and under-theorized. Attracted by this weakness, critics have sought to demonstrate that CIL is irrelevant or non-existent. This Article lays a solid theoretical foundation for CIL and responds to critics by showing that CIL can be a meaningful influence on state behavior. Consistent with much of the current writing on international law, including the strongest criticisms in both legal and political science scholarship, the Article makes standard rational choice assumptions about state behavior. It is assumed that states are self-interested and that they will comply with international law only when it is in their interest to do so. It is shown how, under these assumptions CIL can exist and can influence state behavior. What emerges is a robust and coherent theory of CIL. The theory is then used to examine the doctrine of CIL. Where existing views of CIL are consistent with the theory, the Article provides them with a stronger and more satisfying theoretical justification. For example, the theory provides a novel and more persuasive explanation for the persistent objector doctrine. Where existing perspectives are in conflict with the theoretical approach, the Article explains how and why current views should be adapted. For example, the Article argues that opinio juris should be at the center of our understanding of CIL, and that state practice, traditionally considered the second requirement for the establishment of a rule of CIL, should be viewed only as evidence of opinio juris rather than an independent requirement. In addition to the opinio juris and practice requirements, the article examines the most salient doctrinal issues in CIL, including the relationship between treaties and CIL formation, the persistent and subsequent objector doctrines, the role of new states, instant custom, regional or special custom, and the relationship between jus cogens norms and CIL.
Rights and the Religion Clauses

This Essay argues that a fundamental shift in the conceptualization of rights has taken place under the religion clauses as a result of the Supreme Court’s move toward formal neutrality and tradition analysis. This shift has affected the perception of rights under both the Establishment Clause and the Free Exercise Clause. The result is that doctrines and principles that were once designed, at least in part, to navigate religious pluralism and protect religious minorities have given way to doctrines and principles that have the effect of favoring dominant religions and religious entities. The impact of this shift, which is rarely analyzed as a discreet concern, will have lasting consequences.
Do Stock Price Bubbles Influence Corporate Investment

Abstract Dispersion in investor beliefs and short-selling constraints can lead to stock market bubbles. This paper argues that firms, unlike investors, can exploit such bubbles by issuing new shares at inflated prices. This lowers the cost of capital and increases real investment. Perhaps surprisingly, large bubbles are not eliminated in equilibrium nor do large bubbles necessarily imply large distortions. Using the variance of analysts’ earnings forecasts to proxy for the dispersion of investor beliefs, we find that increases in dispersion cause increases in new equity issuance, Tobin's Q, and real investment, as predicted by the model.
Why Top Executives Derail: A Performative-Extended Mind and a Law of Optimal Emergence

This article defines the mind as an ecosystem within a larger ecosystem. It uses an extended model of the mind and proposes a definition of human values as attractors emerging from ecosystems. The classical model of the growth curve is linked to time and growth dependent conditions for the creation and destruction of ecosystems. The conclusion of this article suggests a direct link between top of the growth curve processes and the loss of values. Top executives feel a strong responsibility to their shareholders to maximise profits. To do this, they move themselves and their organisations precisely to the stage in the growth curve where values are at risk of being lost and derailment seems unavoidable. The combination of understanding the extended mind as an ecosystem within which the conditions to create or destroy values are related to phases of the growth curve might lead to an ecological explanation as to why many top executives derail in situations of wealth, profit, power, and status.
Managed care and technology adoption in health care: evidence from magnetic resonance imaging

This paper empirically examines the relationship between HMO market share and the diffusion of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) equipment. Across markets, increases in HMO market share are associated with slower diffusion of MRI into hospitals between 1983 and 1993, and with substantially lower overall MRI availability in the mid- and later 1990s. High managed care areas also had markedly lower rates of MRI procedure use. These results suggest that technology adoption in health care can respond to changes in financial and other incentives associated with managed care, which may have implications for health care costs and patient welfare.
Issues Players Face with the Collective Bargaining Process

This presentation was originally delivered at the DePaul Journal of Sports Law & Contemporary Problems 2012 Symposium.
License to sell : the effect of business registration reform on entrepreneurial activity in Mexico

This paper studies the effect of business registration regulation on economic activity using micro-level data. The identification strategy exploits the fact that a recent business registration reform in Mexico was introduced in different municipalities at different points in time. Using panel data from the Mexican employment survey, I find that the reform increased the number of registered businesses by 5 percent in eligible industries. This increase was due to former wage earners opening businesses. Former unregistered business owners were not more likely to register their business after the reform. Moreover, employment in eligible industries went up by 2.8 percent, and people who were previously unemployed or out of the labor force were more likely to work as wage earners after the reform. Finally, the results imply that the competition from new entrants lowered prices by 0.6 percent and decreased the income of incumbent businesses by 3.2 percent.
The Law of Medical Misadventure in Japan

ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Der Beitrag gibt einen Uberblick daruber, wie Recht und Praxis in Japan mit arztlich verursachten Gesundheitsschaden umgehen, wobei die Regelungen in anderen Landern vergleichend herangezogen werden. Der Verfasser diskutiert unter anderem strafrechtliche Sanktionen fur Kunstfehler japanischer Arzte, zivil- und zivilprozessrechtliche Regelungen, Fragen der Haftpflichtversicherung sowie administrative Masnahmen, um die Selbstkontrolle innerhalb des japanischen Medizinwesens zu verbessern, und das neu eingefuhrte Regime einer verschuldensunabhangigen Gefahrdungshaftung fur geburtsbedingte Gesundheitsschaden. Der Verfasser zeigt auf, dass die Zahl straf- und zivilrechtlicher Gerichtsverfahren zu Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts rapide zugenommen hatte, nach dem zuvor etliche Falle medizinischer Kunstfehler in den japanischen Medien bekannt gemacht worden waren. Die Verfahrenswelle erreichte ihren Hohepunkt zwischen 2004 (Zivilklagen) und 2006 (Strafverfahren) und ist seitdem wieder abgeebbt. Diejenigen Vorschriften des japanischen Zivilgesetzes, nach denen sich die Haftung fur Kunstfehler richtet, unterscheiden sich nur wenig von den einschlagigen Regelungen in den USA und Westeuropa, auch wenn die Anforderungen an den Nachweis der Kausalitat in bestimmten Fallen weniger hoch sind. Die Schadensersatzzahlungen durften in Japan mindestens so hoch wie in den USA sein und werden durchgangig einheitlicher gehandhabt. Verfahrensrechtliche Reformen wie die Einrichtung von medizinrechtlichen Kammern bei den Distriktgerichten einiger Metropolregionen haben dazu beigetragen, dass die Verfahren zugiger durchgezogen werden konnen. Das neu eingefuhrte Regime einer verschuldensunabhangigen Gefahrdungshaftung fur geburtsbedingte Gesundheitsschaden, das fur private Versicherer ein neues Geschaftsfeld mit einem erheblichen Gewinnpotential (aber auch Risiken) mit sich gebracht hat, hat sich bei den auf Geburten spezialisierten Einrichtungen flachendeckend durchgesetzt, die sich gegen das Risiko kunftiger Schadensersatzklagen absichern wollen. Auch wenn es fur eine abschliesenden Evaluierung noch zu fruh ist, verdient dieses System weitere wissenschaftliche Aufmerksamkeit. Sollte sich dieses geburtsspezifische Schadensersatzregime als Erfolg erweisen, konnte es die Blaupause fur die Einfuhrung einer verschuldensunabhangigen Haftung in anderen Fallen von arztlich verursachten Gesundheitsschaden dienen – was Gegenstand einer anderen Studie ist. (Ubersetzung durch die Redaktion)
A Parametric Study of Possible Solutions to the High-redshift Overproduction of Stars in Modeled Dwarf Galaxies

Both numerical hydrodynamic and semi-analytic cosmological models of galaxy formation struggle to match observed star formation histories of galaxies in low-mass halos (M {sub H} ≲ 10{sup 11} M {sub ☉}), predicting more star formation at high redshift and less star formation at low redshift than observed. The fundamental problem is that galaxies' gas accretion and star formation rates are too closely coupled in the models: the accretion rate largely drives the star formation rate. Observations point to gas accretion rates that outpace star formation at high redshift, resulting in a buildup of gas and a delay in star formation until lower redshifts. We present three empirical adjustments of standard recipes in a semi-analytic model motivated by three physical scenarios that could cause this decoupling: (1) the mass-loading factors of outflows driven by stellar feedback may have a steeper dependence on halo mass at earlier times, (2) the efficiency of star formation may be lower in low-mass halos at high redshift, and (3) gas may not be able to accrete efficiently onto the disk in low-mass halos at high redshift. These new recipes, once tuned, better reproduce the evolution of f {sub *}≡ M {sub *}/M {sub H} as amore » function of halo mass as derived from abundance matching over redshifts z = 0 to 3, though they have different effects on cold gas fractions, star formation rates, and metallicities. Changes to gas accretion and stellar-driven winds are promising, while direct modification of the star formation timescale requires drastic measures that are not physically well motivated.« less
Copper and the Chilean Economy, 1960-98

This paper studies the links between world copper prices and the Chilean economy. The main conclusion is that world copper prices play an important role in short-term economic fluctuations. While many mechanisms may be at work, investment seems to play a major role. During a copper price boom, the higher copper revenues and associated capital inflows create upward pressure on the real exchange rate. In turn the, appreciation of the Chilean peso during the first part of the copper cycle contributes to lower inflation, which could explain why real wages grow more rapidly in this part of the cycle.
How to Rank Law Schools

This paper, submitted to the Indiana University School of Law-Bloomington's Symposium on The Next Generation of Law School Rankings, responds to pieces by Richard Posner, Cass Sunstein, and Russell Korobkin, also submitted to the symposium. From Professor Leiter's comments: "Although many of the scholarly critiques of U.S. News in this symposium are devastating, only alternative ranking schemes, that embody academic values we share, will counteract the pernicious impact of U.S. News on legal education."
Of Backyard Chickens and Front Yard Gardens: The Conflict Between Local Governments and Locavores

Locavores aim to source their food locally. Many locavores are also concerned more broadly with living sustainably and decreasing reliance on industrial agriculture. As more people have joined the locavore movement, including many who reside in urban and suburban areas, conflict has emerged between the locavores’ desires to use their private property to produce food—for personal use and for sale—and municipal zoning ordinances that seek to separate agriculture from residential uses. In this Article, I consider the evolution of this conflict and its implications for our systems of land use, local government, and environmental law. Specifically, I investigate the police power rationales for the existence of ordinances that disallow urban homesteading in urban and suburban communities. I then demonstrate that public health, civic virtue, and free market principles can be used to justify the passage of ordinances that would expressly permit these behaviors. Central to this analysis is a discussion of the problems caused by industrial agriculture and the lack of access to locally produced foods—food insecurity, food deserts, obesity tied to processed foods, monoculture-induced environmental catastrophes, harm to animals, and greenhouse gas emissions—all of which could be alleviated, at least in part, through urban agriculture. In recognition of these changing conceptions of harm, some local governments have begun to pass ordinances expressly allowing gardens, chickens, and the sale of produce in residential areas. I conclude by considering what this movement toward loosening restrictions on the use of private property says more broadly about the decline of Euclidean zoning controls and the future of land use law. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Understanding Factors Influencing Users' Retweeting Behavior---A Theoretical Perspective

REQUIRED) Currently, a large percentage of tweets in micro-blogging platform are retweets. In this study, we propose to examine the factors that motivate users' retweeting behavior, leading users to prefer to transform others' tweets than posting their own. We suggest that Information Sharing Self-Efficacy, Attachment Motivation and Critical Mass are the three antecedents contributing to the users' retweeting behavior. Both theoretical and practical implications of this study are also discussed.
Does the Fed Control Interest Rates

To what extent does TF, the target Federal funds rate set by the Fed, influence other rates? There is lots of variation in rates unrelated to TF, and any effects of TF on rates dissipate quickly for longer maturities. For short rates, all the tests have interpretations in terms of: (i) a Fed that has the power to control rates and uses it, and (ii) a Fed that has little power over rates or chooses not to exercise its power. In the end, there is no conclusive evidence (here or elsewhere) on the role of the Fed versus market forces in the long-term path of interest rates.
The Common Factor in Idiosyncratic Volatility: Quantitative Asset Pricing Implications

We document a strong factor structure in firm-level volatility of idiosyncratic cash flow growth and returns. If markets are incomplete, these factors can be priced. An increase in idiosyncratic volatility represents a worsening of the investment opportunity set for the average investor. As predicted by the theory, we find that exposure to the common factor in idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) in stock returns is indeed priced in the cross-section of U.S. stocks. Stocks that tend to appreciate when CIV rises earn relatively low average returns and thus appear to be valuable hedges. The calibrated model is able to match the high degree of comovement in idiosyncratic volatilities, the CIV beta spread, and a host of other asset price moments. We provide new empirical evidence on the common volatility factor structure of firm- and household-level income growth.
The Blind Leading the Blind: Who Gets Polling Information and Does it Improve Decisions?

We analyze whether and when polls help citizens to improve their decisions. Specifically, we use experiments to investigate (1) whether and when citizens are willing to obtain polls and (2) whether and when polls help citizens to make better choices than they would have made on their own. We find that citizens are more likely to obtain polls when the decisions they must make are difficult and when they are unsophisticated. Ironically, when the decisions are difficult, the pollees are also uninformed and, therefore, do not provide useful information. We also find that when polls indicate the welfare-improving choice, citizens are able to improve their decisions. However, when polls indicate a choice that will make citizens worse off, citizens make worse decisions than they would have made on their own. These results hold regardless of whether the majority in favor of one option over the other is small or large.
Private Value Determinations and the Potential Effect on the Future of Research and Development

Although the promise of an emerging patent market is thought to provide future benefits to invention, innovation, and the public, this Article examines the possibility that the aggregate influence of this activity could instead destabilize patent values in a manner that mirrors the “bubble” phenomenon that occurred in certain markets in the past. To the extent that this occurs, this would have negative consequences for the future of investment in research, development, and innovation.1
Corporate Governance and Risk Taking in Pension Plans: Evidence from Defined Benefit Asset Allocations

Based on theoretical advice and empirical evidence suggesting that risk taking in asset allocation enhances pension returns, we evaluate empirically whether good corporate governance leads to a larger allocation of pension assets to risky securities as compared to safe investments. Our findings suggest that firms with good external and internal corporate governance take more risk by investing heavily in equities and allocating a smaller share of the plan assets to cash, government debt, and insurance company accounts. The main underlying mechanisms appear to be higher investment returns and better pension funding status associated with higher equity and lower safe asset allocations.
Predicting the Yields of Photometric Surveys for Transiting Planets

Department of Physics and MIT Kavli Institute, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02139email: tbeatty@space.mit.eduAbstract.Observing extrasolar planetary transits is one of the only ways that we may infer themasses and radii of planets outside the Solar System. As such, the detections made by photo-metric transit surveys are one of the only foreseeable ways that the areas of planetary interiors,system dynamics, migration, and formation will acquire more data. Predicting the yields of thesesurveys therefore serves as a useful statistical tool. Predictions allows us to check the eﬃciencyof transit surveys (“are we detecting all that we should?”) and to test our understanding ofthe relevant astrophysics (“what parameters aﬀect predictions?”). Furthermore, just the rawnumbers of how many planets will be detected by a survey can be interesting in its own right.Here, we look at two diﬀerent approaches to modeling predictions (forward and backward), andexamine three diﬀerent transit surveys (TrES, XO, and Kepler). In all cases, making predictionsprovides valuable insight into both extrasolar planets and the surveys themselves, but this mustbe tempered by an appreciation of the uncertainties in the statistical cut-oﬀs used by the transitsurveys.Keywords.methods: numerical, planets and satellites: general, surveys, techniques: photomet-ric
Course Match: A Large-Scale Implementation of Approximate Competitive Equilibrium from Equal Incomes for Combinatorial Allocation

Combinatorial allocation involves assigning bundles of items to agents when the use of money is not allowed. Course allocation is one common application of combinatorial allocation, in which the bundles are schedules of courses and the assignees are students. Existing mechanisms used in practice have been shown to have serious flaws, which lead to allocations that are inefficient, unfair, or both. A recently developed mechanism is attractive in theory but has several features that limit its feasibility for practice. This paper reports on the design and implementation of a new course allocation mechanism, Course Match, that is suitable in practice. To find allocations, Course Match performs a massive parallel heuristic search that solves billions of mixed-integer programs to output an approximate competitive equilibrium in a fake-money economy for courses. Quantitative summary statistics for two semesters of full-scale use at a large business school the Wharton School of Business, which has about 1,700 students and up to 350 courses in each semester demonstrate that Course Match is both fair and efficient, a finding reinforced by student surveys showing large gains in satisfaction and perceived fairness.
Measuring the Impact of Microfinance on Child Health Outcomes in Indonesia

Summary Microfinance has become a staple of modern development policy as a means to facilitate anything from gender equality to growth. It can facilitate the sharing of health-related information among parents, promote the bargaining power of women in the household, aid in the development of important health-related infrastructure, and help households smooth consumption in the wake of unexpected economic shocks. Using data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (1993–2000), we find that the presence of microfinance institutions in communities significantly improves the health of children.
Vehicle Based Intersection Management with Intelligent Agents

Signal-based intersection management will change when vehicles with intelligent capability are available in the future. Intelligent agents embedded in vehicle software will be responsible for vehicle control and route guidance. Intersection management can be achieved through the collaboration of these agents, without a centralized control infrastructure. This research focuses on the use of distributed multi-agent systems to provide microscopic adaptive control which might reduce traffic delay and chances of collisions at intersections. A hypothesized Mobile Ad-hoc Network provides communication links to connect the agents.
Is trade policy for sale? Congressional voting on recent trade bills

This paper examines voting by U.S. Representatives onthe North American Free Trade Agreement, the UruguayRound Agreement, and most-favored nation status forChina. Using recent political economy models of tradepolicy to formulate an empirical specification ofcongressional voting behavior, we find evidence thatcampaign contributions influenced legislators' voteson the NAFTA and Uruguay Round bills. Labor groupcontributions were associated with votes against freertrade while business contributions were associatedwith votes in favor of freer trade. Economicconditions in each member's district as well as thebroad policy views of the legislators also affectedrepresentatives' voting decisions.
Global Climate Change and the Risks to Coastal Areas from Hurricanes and Rising Sea Levels: The Costs of Doing Nothing

Many Americans horrified by the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in late summer 2005 sought an explanation for the nation’s failure to avert that disaster or to deal with it adequately once the storm had hit land. Candidates for bearing the lion’s share of the blame were not difficult to identify. They included local governments, the governments of the states located along the Gulf Coast, the Army Corps of Engineers, high-ranking officials in the Department of Homeland Security and Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the President of the United States. The nation’s attention also focused on the question of how to ensure more effective preparation for future storms such as category 4 or 5 hurricanes. Among those public officials addressing that question were subcommittees of both Houses of Congress, the Army Corps of Engineers, and the White House. These officials analyzed questions such as why the levees broke and why evacuation plans did not effectively remove people from harm’s way.
Preemption Conflation: Dividing the Local from the State in Congressional Decision Making

Under the Federal Constitution’s Supremacy Clause, Congress has the power to preempt state and local laws, rendering them “null, void, invalid and inoperative.” Congress often exercises this power by adopting statutory provisions that expressly preempt certain forms of state or local regulation. The traditional answer to whether federal preemption treats state law and local (city or county) law the same has been an unequivocal yes. This Article lifts the lid on that assumption of equal treatment to see whether Congress actually differentiates between state and local laws in the federal preemption context — and to ask whether it should do so. Perhaps the City of New Orleans should be allowed to escape federal preemption more easily than the State of Louisiana in order to encourage local experimentation, or because a single local law will have less impact on federal uniformity interests than a state law will. Or perhaps Louisiana should have more leeway than New Orleans because states are considered sovereigns in our federalist system and local governments are not, or because we have only fifty states but thousands of local governments, meaning that local laws could have a greater cumulative effect on federal interests than state laws would. I conclude that Congress distinguishes the state from the local more often than is commonly understood. Further, Congress is justified in doing so on both constitutional and policy grounds. Indeed, Congress should think even more systematically and regularly about state-local differences than it currently does when drafting preemption provisions. These conclusions strengthen ongoing scholarly efforts to disentangle the local from the state, emphasizing the unique contributions of local regulation in our federalist scheme. They also deepen the theory on federal preemption, one of the most active constitutional doctrines in the courts today.
The Nature of Equilibrium in Macroeconomics: A Critique of Equilibrium Search Theory

The standard Walrasian equilibrium theory requires that the marginal value product of production factor such as labor is equal across firms and industries. However, productivity dispersion is widely observed in the real economy. Search theory allegedly fills this gap by encompassing apparent disequilibrium phenomena in the neoclassical equilibrium framework. Taking up Lucas and Prescott (1974) as a primary example, we show that the neoclassical search theory cannot explain the observed pattern of productivity dispersion. Non-self-averaging, a concept little known to economists, plays the major role. Empirical observation suggests strongly the presence of disturbing forces which dominate equilibrating forces due to optimizing behavior of economic agents. We must seek a new concept of equilibrium different from the standard Walrasian equilibrium in macroeconomics. Paper submitted to the special issue “Reconstructing Macroeconomics” (http://www.economics-ejournal.org/special-areas/special-issues)
TRC Networks and Systemic Risk

The authors introduce a new approach to identifying and monitoring systemic risk that combines network analysis and tail risk contribution (TRC). Network analysis provides great flexibility in representing and exploring linkages between institutions, but it can be overly general in describing the risk exposures of one entity to another. TRC provides a more focused view of key systemic risks and richer financial intuition, but it may miss important linkages between financial institutions. Integrating these two methods can provide information on key relationships between institutions that may become relevant during periods of systemic stress. The authors demonstrate this approach using the exposures of money market funds to major financial institutions during July 2011. The results for their example suggest that TRC networks can highlight both institutions and funds that may become distressed during a financial crisis.
Avoidance, Evasion, and Taxpayer Morality

In popular discourse, tax evasion by wealthy individuals is conflated with tax avoidance by multinational corporations to tell a single story about tax dodging and its negative impact on society. But conflating avoidance and evasion muddies the tax policy waters in important ways by turning legal obligations into moral ones. This Essay, prepared in connection with the Washington University School of Law colloquium on “Conceptualizing a New Institutional Framework for International Taxation,” makes the case for caution in using morality as a stop-gap measure to avoid drawing a regulated line between tax evasion and tax avoidance, while still meting out punishment within the undefined space between these two poles. It acknowledges the political gains derived from the rhetoric of morality but argues that the alternate view — that taxpayer behavior must ultimately be managed by law rather than social sanction — has the best chance of driving tax policy toward greater coherence in the long run because it makes the best case for more transparency in both lawmaking and the consequences of legislative decisions.
“I See Death around the Corner”: Nihilism in Rap Music:

Rap is one of the most salient music genres of the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. Gangsta rap, in particular, with its focus on urban street life, has become a dominant means of expression within contemporary African American adolescent culture. As such, it speaks directly to issues of identity, culture, violence, and nihilism—themes that permeate recent research on inner-city black communities. Mostly ethnographic in nature, this work describes how structural disadvantage, social isolation, and despair create a black youth culture, or street code, that influences adolescent behavior. The current work builds on the community literature by exploring how the street code is present not only on “the street” but also in rap music. It addresses two important questions: (1) To what extent does rap music contain elements of the street code—and particularly nihilism—identified by Anderson (1999) and others? (2) How do rappers experience and interpret their lives, and how do they respond to condit...
Defining Open Standards: A comparison of policy and practice

Governments around the world have taken an increasing interest in the use of “Open Standards” in the ICT systems that they deploy. That interest has manifested itself in several recent policies, including ones issued since November 2010 by the European Commission, the Government of India and the UK Cabinet Office. These policies ultimately raise as many questions as they answer about how we might delineate the confines of the term “Open Standard” and which commonly used standards would measure up to that requirement. Contrary to popular belief, there is not a single accepted definition of the term “Open Standard” and in fact each of the policies defines that term differently. Part I of this paper looks at the concept of “openness,” using five dimensions or attributes. Part II introduces the three recent government standards policies and explains how each one approaches the concept of openness, with reference to these five attributes. Part III of the paper suggests that while the definitions in these policies may seem clear on their face, when applied to real world practices at SSOs, the definitions will disqualify a non-trivial number of standards currently in use by governments around the world. Part IV summarizes the findings and considers several other policy questions related to the frequently cited objectives for these “Open Standards” Policies, concluding that we should ask questions about whether the policies outlined above can deliver on those objectives in light of the analysis in Part II.
The Oregon and California Railroad Grant Lands’ Sordid Past, Contentious Present, and Uncertain Future: A Century of Conflict

This article examines the long, contentious history of the Oregon & California Land Grant that produced federal forest lands now managed by the Bureau of Land Management. It discusses how these lands revested to the federal government following decades of corruption and scandal and analyzes the resulting congressionally created management structure that supported local county governments through the over-harvesting of lands for a half-century. The article proceeds to trace the fate of O&C lands through the “spotted owl wars” of the 1990s, the ensuing Northwest Forest Plan—which this Article explains in detail—the timber salvage rider of 1995, and the George W. Bush Administration’s unsuccessful attempts to change the compromise reached in the NWFP. The article then explains how decreases in timber harvesting and declines in federal payments have brought the counties reliant on these lands to the brink of insolvency and analyzes two current legislative proposals aimed at bolstering flagging economies through increased harvests on O&C lands. The article concludes by identifying significant economic and environmental flaws in both of these proposals and suggests several alternative revenue-producing options that could provide economic security and diversity to the counties without eviscerating the key environmental protections provided by the NWFP and other federal environmental protection statutes. * Jeffrey Bain Faculty Scholar & Professor of Law, Lewis and Clark Law School. Thanks to Greg Block for helpful comments on a draft of this article. ** J.D. Lewis and Clark Law School, Special Assistant to the Managing Director at The Freshwater Trust.
The 535 Report: A Pathway to Fundamental Tax Reform

In February we celebrated 100 years of our income tax. I don’t know if celebrated is the right word. Our leaders in Washington just voted to continue the Bush tax cuts for all but the highest income wage earners. But if you think the fiscal cliff deal was a good thing for the middle class—as President Obama promised—think again. The extension of the Bush tax cuts does nothing to change the fact that most middleand low-income wage earners do not benefit from the tax breaks, loopholes, and deductions that
Does stock price elasticity affect corporate financial decisions

Abstract This paper considers whether stock price elasticity affects corporate financial decisions. Basic economic principles and the existing theoretical literature predict that firms choosing the Dutch auction instead of the fixed price tender offer should be those firms expecting to face greater stock price elasticity. Econometric analysis suggests that firms choosing the Dutch auction instead of the fixed price tender offer between 1984 and 1989 are indeed those firms expecting to face greater stock elasticity, even though the average realized elasticities of the firms conducting the various tender offers fail to be significantly different. The expected elasticity remains an important determinant of the tender offer choice even when allowing for firm characteristics associated with the choice of repurchase method. Firms facing greater elasticity are also characterized. The findings suggest that expected stock price elasticity may be an important determinant of corporate financial decisions that affect the supply of, or demand for, stock.