Challenges in the implementation of energy conservation

Abstract Penetration of energy-conservation devices during the last few years has led to progressive reductions in estimated total energy demands for the U.S. and other countries. Relatively rapid reductions have been implemented in areas dominated by social habits. Significant gains are noted in the transportation and space-conditioning sectors. Following innovative marketing, a number of passive (solar) retrofit procedures has been found to yield effective potentials for significant energy-conservation gains in the residential sector. Examples are ceiling insulation to reduce energy requirements for space-conditioning, fenestration devices for windows to reduce air-conditioning loads during hot summer months, and insulation retrofits on inadequately insulated water heaters. Over the long term, the major challenge in the residential sector concerns the design, construction, and marketing of energy-efficient homes. These will utilize far less energy, on the average, than is currently needed, without requiring major changes in the lifestyles of inhabitants. Systems studies allowing for technological innovation (e.g. solar water heating and solar-space conditioning for multiple-family aggregates, walls with thermal storage, use of improved materials and designs) and removal of obstacles (e.g. zoning restrictions, outdated building codes, difficulties for proper financing) present outstanding challenges to designers, municipal planners, and politicians alike. Innovation in industrial production is more clearly defined than in the residential sector and will be facilitated by (a) educating consumers on the importance of life-cycle costing in making intelligent choices in the capital-goods market and (b) by marginal pricing of energy supplies. Optimized economic evaluations from the consumer's and manufacturer's points of view are currently widely introduced and should play important roles in defining the long-term acceptabilities of more energy-efficient appliances, vehicles, and other products. In many cases (e.g. cogeneration, district heating), market penetration will be delayed because of existing excess capacity (as in the electric utility sector) or current availability of alternative techniques that will remain less costly than better new technologies when life-cycle costing is properly done. Delays in the introduction of improved technologies will generally be minimized by allowing fuel-price escalation to recover marginal costs. Inventions and innovations in technologies that are not motivated by energy-conservation goals (e.g. introduction of new generations of motor vehicles, aircraft, entertainment facilities such as color TVs, stereo systems, and video-tapes) have played dominant roles in improving what many people view as their standard of living. These inventions and innovations have been responsible for rapidly escalating energy-use rates. In developing future scenarios for energy conservation, it is important to allow room for important inventions not yet conceived or not yet available (e.g. personal electric vehicles) and for the corresponding radical changes in energyuse patterns that may accompany their introduction. Without this provision, the most benign energy-conservation scenarios may not justifiably be viewed as maintaining or augmenting the quality of life. The concluding remarks briefly address life-cycle costing and the relations between per capita income and energy use in different countries.