Length of estradiol exposure >100 pg/ml in the follicular phase affects pregnancy outcomes in natural frozen embryo transfer cycles

Study question Do the length of follicular phase estradiol exposure and the total length of the follicular phase affect pregnancy and live birth outcomes in natural frozen embryo transfer (FET) cycles? Summary answer An estradiol level >100 pg/ml for ≤4 days including the LH surge day is associated with worse pregnancy and live birth outcomes; however, the total length of the follicular phase is not associated with pregnancy and live birth outcomes. What is known already An estradiol level that increases above 100 pg/ml and continues to increase is indicative of the selection and development of a dominant follicle. In programmed FET cycles, a limited duration of follicular phase estradiol of Study design, size, duration This retrospective cohort study included infertile patients in an academic hospital setting who underwent their first natural frozen autologous Day-5 embryo transfer cycle in our IVF clinic between 01 January 2013 and 31 December 2018. Donor oocyte and gestational carrier cycles were excluded. Participants/materials, setting, methods The primary outcomes of this study were pregnancy and live birth rates. Patients were stratified into two groups based on the cohorts' median number of days from the estradiol level of >100 pg/ml before the LH surge: Group 1 (≤4 days; n = 1052 patients) and Group 2 (>4 days; n = 839 patients). Additionally, patients were stratified into two groups based on the cohorts' median cycle day of LH surge: Group 1 (follicular length ≤15 days; n = 1287 patients) and Group 2 (follicular length >15 days; n = 1071 patients). A subgroup analysis of preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidies (PGT-A) embryo transfer cycles was performed. Logistic regression analysis, adjusted a priori for patient age, number of embryos transferred, and use of PGT-A, was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) with a 95% CI. Main results and the role of chance In the length of elevated estradiol analysis, the pregnancy rate per embryo transfer was statistically significantly lower in patients with an elevated estradiol to surge of ≤4 days (65.6%) compared to patients with an elevated estradiol to surge of >4 days (70.9%; OR 1.30 (95% CI 1.06-1.58)). The live birth rate per embryo transfer was also statistically significantly lower in patients with an elevated estradiol to surge of ≤4 days (46.6%) compared to patients with an elevated estradiol to surge of >4 days (52.0%; OR 1.23 (95% CI 1.02-1.48)). In the follicular phase length analysis, the pregnancy rate per embryo transfer was similar between patients with a follicular length of ≤15 days (65.4%) and patients with a follicular length of >15 days (69.0%; OR 1.12 (95% CI 0.94-1.33)): the live birth rate was also similar between groups (45.5% vs 51.5%, respectively; OR 1.14 (95% CI 0.97-1.35)). In all analyses, once a pregnancy was achieved, the length of the follicular phase or the length of elevated oestradiol >100 pg/ml no longer affected the pregnancy outcomes. Limitations, reasons for caution The retrospective design of this study is subject to possible selection bias in regard to which patients at our clinic were recommended to undergo a natural FET compared to a fresh embryo transfer or programmed FET. To decrease the heterogeneity of our study population, we only included patients who had blastocyst embryo transfers; therefore, it is unknown whether similar results would be observed in patients with cleavage-stage embryo transfers. The retrospective nature of the study design did not allow randomized to a specific ovarian stimulation or ovulation trigger protocol. However, all patients were managed with the standardized protocols at a single center, which strengthens the external validity of our results when compared to a study that only evaluates one specific stimulation protocol. Wider implications of the findings Our observations provide cycle-level characteristics that can be applied during a natural FET cycle to help optimize embryo transfer success rates. Physicians should consider the parameter of number of days that oestradiol is >100 pg/ml prior to the LH surge when determining whether to proceed with embryo transfer in a natural cycle. This cycle-specific characteristic may also help to provide an explanation for some failed transfer cycles. Importantly, our findings should not be used to determine whether to recommend a natural or a programmed FET cycle for a patient, but rather, to identify natural FET cycles that are not optimal to proceed with embryo transfer. Study funding/competing interest(s) No financial support, funding, or services were obtained for this study. The authors do not report any potential conflicts of interest. Trial registration number N/A.