Evaluation of the new radiation belt AE9/AP9/SPM model for a cislunar mission

Abstract Space mission planners continue to experience challenges associated with human space flight. Concerned with the omnipresence of harmful ionizing radiation in space, at the mission design stage, mission planners must evaluate the amount of exposure the crew of a spacecraft is subjected to during the transit trajectory from low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO) and beyond (free space). The Earth’s geomagnetic field is located within the domain of LEO–GEO and, depending on latitude, extends out some 40,000–60,000 km. This field contains the Van Allen trapped electrons, protons, and low-energy plasmas, such as the nuclei of hydrogen, helium, oxygen, and to a lesser degree other atoms. In addition, there exist the geomagnetically attenuated energetic galactic cosmic rays (GCR). These particles are potentially harmful to improperly shielded crew members and onboard subsystems. Mitigation strategies to limit the exposure due to free space GCR and sporadic solar energetic particles (SEP) such as flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) must also be exercised beyond the trapped field. Presented in this work is the exposure analysis for a multi-vehicle mission planned for the epoch of February 2020 from LEO to the Earth–moon Lagrange-point two (L2), located approximately 63,000 km beyond the orbit of the Earth–moon binary system. Space operation at L2 provides a gravitationally stable orbit for a vehicle and partially eliminates the need for periodic thrust-vectoring to maintain orbital stability. In the cislunar (Earth–moon) space of L2, the mission trajectory and timeline in this work call for a cargo vehicle to rendezvous with a crew vehicle. This is followed by 15 days of space activities at L2 while the cargo and crew vehicles are docked after which the crew returns to Earth. The mission epoch of 2020 is specifically chosen as it is anticipated that the next solar minimum (i.e. end of cycle 24) in the Sun’s approximate 11 years cycle will take place around this time. From a mission planning point of view, this date is ideal as the predictable GCR exposure will be at a maximum, while the sporadic SEP will be at a minimum. In addition, it is anticipated that by 2020 a vehicle capable of launching a crew of four will be operationally ready. During the LEO–GEO transit, the crew and cargo vehicles will encounter exposure from trapped particles and attenuated GCR, followed by free space exposure due to GCR and SEP during solar active times. Within the trapped field, a challenge arises from properly calculating the amount of exposure acquired. Within this field, in the absence of SEP (i.e. solar quiet times), the vehicles will have to transit through an inner proton belt, an inner and outer electron belts, and an attenuated GCR field. There exist a number of models to define the intensities of the trapped particles during the quiet and active SEP. Among the more established trapped models are the historic and popular electron/proton AE8/AP8 model dating back to the 1980s, the historic and less popular electron/proton CRRES model dating back to 1990s, and the recently released electron/proton/space plasma AE9/AP9/SPM model. The AE9/AP9/SPM model is a major improvement over the older AE8/AP8 and CRRES models. This model is derived from numerous measurements acquired over four solar cycles dating back to the 1970s, roughly representing 40 years of data collection. In contrast, the older AE8/AP8 and CRRES models were limited to only a few months of measurements taken during the prior solar minima and maxima. In this work, within the trapped field, along the design trajectory of the crew vehicle, the AE9/AP9/SPM model is evaluated against the older AE8/AP8 model during solar quiet times. The analysis is then extended to the GCR dominated en-route, cislunar L2 space and return trajectories in order to provide cumulative exposure estimates to the crew vehicle for the duration of the entire mission.