cssi/SciSciGPT-SciSciNet huggingface dataset:
ALL THAT I HAVE TO SAY HAS ALREADY CROSSED YOUR MIND

ABSTRACT We present three arguments regarding the limits to rationality, prediction and control ineconomics, based on Morgenstern’s analysis of the Holmes–Moriarty problem. The ﬁrst uses astandard metamathematical theorem on computability to indicate logical limits to forecasting thefuture. The second provides possible nonconvergence for Bayesian forecasting in inﬁnite-dimensional space. The third shows the impossibility of a computer perfectly forecasting aneconomy with agents knowing its forecasting program. Thus, economic order is partly theproduct of something other than calculative rationality. The joint presentation of these existingresults should introduce the reader to implications of these concepts for certain shared concernsof Keynes and Hayek. ‘All that I have to say has already crossed your mind,’ said he‘Then possibly my answer has crossed yours,’ I replied.‘You stand fast?’‘Absolutely.’The Final Problem1. INTRODUCTION Self-reference arises naturally in economics. Augustin Cournot (1838)presented a model of duopoly in which each party must form conjecturesabout the actions of the other party. Implicitly, this means that eachplayer is forming conjectures about the conjectures of the other player. I
Perceptions of High Integrity Can Persist After Deception: How Implicit Beliefs Moderate Trust Erosion

Scholars have assumed that trust is fragile: difficult to build and easily broken. We demonstrate, however, that in some cases trust is surprisingly robust—even when harmful deception is revealed, some individuals maintain high levels of trust in the deceiver. In this paper, we describe how implicit theories moderate the harmful effects of revealed deception on a key component of trust: perceptions of integrity. In a negotiation context, we show that people who hold incremental theories (beliefs that negotiating abilities are malleable) reduce perceptions of their counterpart’s integrity after they learn that they were deceived, whereas people who hold entity theories (beliefs that negotiators’ characteristics and abilities are fixed) maintain their first impressions after learning that they were deceived. Implicit theories influenced how targets interpreted evidence of deception. Individuals with incremental theories encoded revealed deception as an ethical violation; individuals with entity theories did not. These findings highlight the importance of implicit beliefs in understanding how trust changes over time.
Credit Assignment and Federal Encroachment

Opportunistic encroachment by the national government on state policy domains erodes the robustness of federal unions. Theories of electoral and political safeguards of federalism suggest that the political process protects federalism’s boundaries. This article develops a theory distinguishing riskseeking and risk-avoiding political behavior and applies its insights to the debate about the sufficiency of the political process to police federalism. Under average conditions, the political process deters encroachment, but under more extreme conditions it fails: elected officials set policy according to the risk associated with their electoral retention rather than the policy’s expected return to the voters or the health of the federation; this manipulation of the risk environment may lead a central government to encroach upon a state’s domain opportunistically. The federal problem of credit assignment exposes a weakness in the political safeguards theory to protect federalism’s boundaries: electoral mechanis...
Race and the Right to Vote after Rice v. Cayetano

This Article traces the Supreme Court's reasoning in its recent decision, Rice v. Cayetano, to a deeper understanding of racial classifications, participation in the electoral process, and the relationship between the two. Rice suggests that the primary value of political participation through voting lies not in the policies implemented by those elected, but in two distinct and related intrinsic benefits the vote produces: namely, the constitutive benefit an individual derives from political engagement with others and the expressive benefit derived from full membership in the political community. Rice posits, on the one hand, that a jurisdiction's use of race to define an electorate distorts these beneficial effects by imposing on voters a state-approved identity instead of leaving voters free to develop an identity on their own and by disseminating the message that racial identity represents a relevant criterion for entry into the political community. Rice presumes, on the other hand, that the constitutive and expressive aspects of voting provide a crucial element to a group identity that otherwise would not be viewed as "racial." This view of race confirms the idea that, at least within our constitutional practice, the concept of racial identity is a complex legal conclusion, not a pre-legal factual predicate. This Article explores this conception of voting and the impact of race and the ramifications it may have for future voting rights cases.
Reforming the Law School Curriculum from the Top Down

With growing consensus that legal education is in turmoil if not in crisis, law schools need to take advantage of industry upheaval to catalyze innovation in the way they train their students. Curriculum reform, long the “third rail” of faculty politics, is now essential if some law schools are going to survive the present tsunami of low enrollments and stagnant hiring. One cautiously optimistic note within this doomsday symphony is that law school deans are now in extremely strong bargaining positions with their faculties and boards of trustees with respect to curriculum innovation.In this essay, the author proposes a pivotal reform to the third year curriculum involving team-taught “Advanced Legal Problem Solving” workshops in subject specific areas, and describes the precise structure, content and staffing of such capstone courses. He argues that such workshops would significantly enhance the preparation of law students for entry into the profession, and would create an efficient and cost-effective route for law schools to satisfy rigorous new ABA accreditation standards regarding experiential learning and outcomes assessment.
Modeling contagion in the Eurozone crisis via dynamical systems.

Abstract We recently (Castellacci and Choi, 2013) formulated a theoretical framework for the modeling of financial instability contagion using the theories of dynamical systems. Here, our main goal is to model the Eurozone financial crisis within that framework. The underlying system comprises many economic agents that belong to several subsystems. In each instantiation of this framework, the hierarchy and nesting of the subsystems is dictated by the nature of the problem at hand. We describe in great detail how a suitable model can be set up for the Eurozone crisis. The dynamical system is defined by the evolution of the wealths of the individual agents and can be estimated by solving a nonlinear programming problem that incorporates features of prospect theory. Contagion is formulated in terms of how the market instability indicators for the different subsystems and the global system behave. We present several scenarios tailored to recent financial developments in the Eurozone and discussed within our model. These all point to the key role played by the elasticity coefficients of the wealth dynamical system. Accordingly, we put forward general recommendations on how regulators or other super-systemic agents may act to prevent and forestall the spreading of financial distress.
Embodying Surrogate Motherhood: Pregnancy as a Dyadic Body-project:

This article examines pregnancy as a dyadic body-project within surrogate motherhood arrangements. In gestational surrogacy arrangements, the surrogate mother agrees to have an embryo that has been created using IVF, with the genetic materials of the intended parents or of anonymous donors, surgically implanted in her womb. Based on anthropological fieldwork among Jewish-Israeli surrogates and intended mothers involved in these arrangements, this article focuses upon the interactive identity management practices that the women jointly undertake during the pregnancy. For each side, creating an unambiguous definition of motherhood was central to their individual identity-work. For surrogates, the possible imputations of immorality required redefining pregnant embodiment as separate from maternal identity, while for intended mothers, the surrogate’s embodiment of the pregnancy represented competing claims to their own maternity. Through verbal communication and through practices of disembodiment and vicariou...
The Impact of Environmental Regulations on the Industry Structure of Landfills

Over the past twenty years, the environmental regulation of landfills has become increasingly restrictive both at the federal and state levels. Using a panel dataset of Ohio landfills, we developed a theoretical framework to explain the landfill operators’ responses to regulatory actions, and then estimate an empirical model of changes in industry structure. Because not all Ohio counties have landfill operations, we hypothesize that there is self-selection in the location of landfills, which is accounted for with an appropriate econometric model. The study finds that environmental regulations had significant impact both on the location of landfill operations and concentration of the industry during the time period studied.
Owning Stock While Making Law: An Agency Problem and a Fiduciary Solution

This Article focuses on Members of Congress and their widespread practice of holding personal investments in companies that are directly and substantially affected by legislative action. Whether entirely accurate or not, congressional officials with investment portfolios chock full of corporate stocks and bonds contribute to a corrosive belief that lawmakers can – and sometimes do – place their personal financial interests ahead of the public they serve. Fiduciary principles provide a practical solution to this classic agency problem. The Article first explores the loyalty-based rules that guard against self-interested decision-making by directors of corporations and by government officials in the executive and judicial branches of the federal government. It then contrasts the strict anti-conflict restraints in state corporate law and federal conflicts-of-interest statutes with the very different set of ethical rules and norms that Congress traditionally has applied to the financial investments held by its own members and employees. It also confronts the parochial view that lawmakers’ conflicts are best deterred through public disclosure of personal investments and the discipline of the electoral process. The Article concludes with a proposal for new limitations on the securities that lawmakers may hold during their congressional service. Specifically, and as a starting place, Congress should prohibit its members (and their staffs) from holding securities in companies substantially affected by the work of any congressional committee on which they hold membership. But Congress should also explore the adoption of even stricter anti-conflict restraints, such as a statute or rule that would, subject to some narrow exceptions, prohibit members and senior staff officials from owning any securities other than government securities or shares in diversified mutual funds.
Narrow Focusing: Why the Relative Position of a Good in Its Category Matters More Than It Should

This research examines whether a low-ranking member in a high-status category (e.g., a low-end model of a high-end brand) or a high-ranking member in a low-status category (e.g., a high-end model of a low-end brand) is favored, holding the objective qualities of the items constant. Brand equity research suggests that the quality of a brand is more important than the ranking of a product within a brand. Our research documents a robust ranking effect--whereby a high-ranking product in a low-status category is favored over a low-ranking product in a high-status category even when information on competing categories is made available. We explain this effect in terms of narrow focusing and evaluability, and we identify boundary conditions of the effect.
How do households choose quality and time to replacement for a rapidly improving durable good

Abstract Many durable goods, particularly in the high technology sector of the economy, experience rapid quality improvement. As a result, replacement is typically due to obsolescence rather than breakdown, and replacement cycles are relatively short. When these goods are vertically differentiated, consumers must make two important, inter-related choices upon making a purchase: what quality level to buy, and how long to wait between purchases. In this paper, we analyze how these two decisions relate to underlying preferences and to each other both theoretically and empirically. We demonstrate how a single, tenuous assumption in a commonly used theoretical model can drive the relationships we would predict when we take this model to the data. This highlights the necessity of a more direct empirical analysis. In our empirics, we show that quality choice and replacement cycle length (RCL) are generally positively correlated. We also find evidence of non-monotonic relationships between quality choice and marginal utility of quality and RCL choice and marginal utility of money. That is, households who value quality more don't always buy higher-quality PCs, and households who value money less don't always buy more frequently, ceteris paribus. Our results provide new insights into the nature of durable goods demand, the proper characterization of markets and market segments, and welfare measures.
Exporting and pollution abatement expenditure: Evidence from firm-level data

Abstract The relevance of analyzing whether exporting firms engage in greater pollution abatement cannot be overemphasized. For instance, the question relates to the possibility of export promotion policies being environmentally beneficial. Thus, the issue is especially relevant for developing countries typically characterized by weak enforcement of environmental regulation. However, despite the extensive literature assessing the environmental consequences of aggregate trade, the evidence from firm-level trade is relatively scarce and skewed toward developed countries. Accordingly, we employ cross-sectional data across Indonesian firms to assess the causal effect of exporting on abatement behavior. Due to concerns over non-random selection into exporting, we also resort to a number of novel identification strategies. Two of the approaches are proposed by Millimet and Tchernis (2013) and entail either minimizing or correcting for selection bias. The remaining methods, attributable to Lewbel (2012) and Klein and Vella (2009), rely on higher moments of the data to obtain exclusion restrictions. While we largely find exporting to encourage pollution abatement, the estimated impacts are more pronounced after accounting for the endogeneity of exporting status.
Historic Preservation: Preserving Value?

The creation of historic districts has become a common way to preserve historic buildings and neighborhoods. Advocates of historic districts assume that such districts augment, or at least, protect property values for homes within these districts. The existing economic literature supports this conclusion, but most studies seem to fall victim to an endogeneity bias since higher value homes are, all else equal, more likely to be included in districts. This study uses repeat-sales fixed effects (difference-in-differences) analysis to look at homes before and after the creation of districts in the Boston-Cambridge-Quincy MSA between 2000 and 2007, and thus control for this endogeneity bias. Secondarily, we re-examine the effects of a Massachusetts preservation policy, the Community Preservation Act (CPA) which, in part, supports historic preservation. We find evidence that the creation of a local historic district, on average, reduces home prices for homes in that district between 11.6 and 15.5%. This indicates that any restrictions implied by the creation of a district outweigh any benefits to homeowners within the district. If, instead, census block fixed effects are employed, the analysis shows a statistically insignificant impact, the sign and magnitude of which depends on the specification. Taken together with the repeat sales result, this confirms our intuition about the importance of controlling for omitted variables and endogeneity biases. Finally, we find evidence that the CPA also lowers property values, by less than 1%, and that being in a Historic District magnifies the negative effect of the CPA.
Obergefell’s Squandered Potential

This short essay critically assesses Justice Kennedy’s opinion in Obergefell v. Hodges, which declared unconstitutional state laws and constitutional provisions barring same-sex couples from lawfully marrying within the state or having their lawful out-of-state marriages recognized by the state. While acknowledging the important role that Justice Kennedy has played in advancing the cause of gay rights over the past two decades — through his authorship of four separate decisions vindicating the rights of gays and lesbians — the essay critiques Justice Kennedy for failing in any of these cases to declare sexual orientation a suspect or quasi-suspect classification under the Equal Protection Clause. The essay considers and rejects a number of possible justifications for his failure to reach the issue in any of the gay rights cases. That failure has harmed gay and lesbian litigants in the past and will likely harm future litigants as well. While acknowledging Justice Kennedy’s important contributions to the field of gay rights, the essay concludes that he could have left a more stable and enduring legacy had he followed a different pathway in Obergefell.
Failing Expectations: Fourth Amendment Doctrine in the Era of Total Surveillance

Today’s reasonable expectation test and the third-party doctrine have little to nothing to offer by way of privacy protection if users today are at least conflicted about whether transactional noncontent data should be shared with third parties, including law enforcement officials. This uncertainty about how to define public expectation as a descriptive matter has compelled courts to defer to legislatures to find out what public expectation ought to be more as a matter of prudence than doctrine. Courts and others presume that legislatures are far better than courts at defining public expectations about emergent technologies.This Essay argues that the reasonable expectation standard is particularly flawed if it has the effect of encouraging judges to seek guidance from legislatures on constitutional norms and principles. Judicial review is the vital antimajoritarian check against excessive government intrusions on individual liberty under our constitutional scheme. This is a responsibility that courts cannot pass off to the political branches when, as is the case today, most people expect that the cost of network connection is total surveillance. It is beyond irony that, today, courts consult public expectation to determine private entitlements. This Essays argues that court-administered privacy law doctrine must change if the protection against “unreasonable searches and seizures” is to have any positive legal meaning. The current court-created doctrine will not be able to keep up if it compels judges to measure public expectation. It is time for courts to reassert their positive duty to say what privacy law is.
The Judicial Signaling Game: How Judges Shape Their Dockets

Judges are not passive receivers of their agendas, as they were traditionally perceived. Instead, judges can shape their dockets by encouraging potential litigants to bring particular cases or make specifi c arguments. This encouragement takes the form of judges signaling their own positions on an issue as well as their colleagues’ expected support. This process is modeled as a signaling game, with both separating and pooling equilibria resulting. The existence of pooling equilibria is of particular interest, as it suggests that some judges have an incentive to misrepresent the chances of success of a case in order to induce desired litigation.
Cash Holdings and Corporate Diversification

This paper studies the relation between corporate liquidity and diversification. The key finding is that multidivision firms hold significantly less cash than stand-alone firms because they are diversified in their investment opportunities. Lower cross-divisional correlations in investment opportunity and higher correlations between investment opportunity and cash flow correspond to lower cash holdings, even after controlling for cash flow volatility. The effects are strongest in financially constrained firms and in well-governed firms, and correspond to efficient fund transfers from low- to high-productivity divisions. Taken together, these results bring forth an efficient link between diversification and corporate liquidity.
The Patenting Of The Liberal Professions

The patent system has recently embraced an ambitious vision of its own subject matter, allowing individuals to obtain proprietary rights in virtually any field of human endeavor. In The Patenting of the Liberal Professions, Professor Thomas traces the case law espousing a progressively more lenient view of patentable subject matter, culminating with the abolition of the business methods exception in the Federal Circuit's State Street Bank decision. Thomas is critical of this trend and calls for restoration of a sense of patentable subject matter that comports with the constitutional directive that patents apply only to the "useful Arts." Turning both to epistemology and comparative legal studies, Thomas attempts to articulate those endeavors that are properly viewed as technological in character. The Article closes with the proposal that the United States patent system limit grants to those inventions capable of industrial application.
Proxy Signals: Capturing Private Information for Public Benefit

This Article presents an original empirical methodology to identify which patent laws will best promote optimal incentives to innovate for society. Vociferous debates over patent reform pit the United States’ largest innovation industries against each other in a dispute concerning whether stronger or weaker patent rights are necessary to promote innovation. Past efforts to answer this question have been thwarted by an inability to parse the impossibly complex social and legal relationship between innovation and patent law. Rather than considering such problems directly, the proxy technique introduced here offers a new framework to leverage indirect signals that capture better information than previously available concerning how best to promote incentives to innovate. In certain contexts, it is possible to use empirical information about the trade-off between the incentives and exclusivity costs of patent law to identify particular private industries that (1) face trade-offs  © 2012 Gregory N. Mandel. Peter J. Liacouras Professor of Law and Associate Dean for Research, Temple University—Beasley School of Law. J.D., Stanford Law School; B.A., Wesleyan University. I am grateful for valuable comments on earlier drafts of this work from Jonathan Barnett, Jane Baron, Michael Carrier, Christopher Cotropia, Ben Depoorter, Ezra Friedman, Brett Frischmann, John Golden, Craig Green, David Hoffman, Robert Hunt, Mark Lemley, Clarissa Long, Michael Meurer, David Post, Ted Sichelman, and Chris Sprigman, and for feedback from participants at the University of Pennsylvania Law School‘s Center for Technology, Innovation, and Competition Workshop, the 2010 Intellectual Property Scholars Conference, the Cyberlaw Colloquium at Rutgers School of Law, the Boston Intellectual Property Colloquium at Suffolk Law School, and The Future of Patent Law conference at the University of San Diego School of Law. I also want to thank Carolyn Castagna, Douglas Maloney, and Evan Smith for their outstanding research assistance on this project. Washington University Open Scholarship 2 WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY LAW REVIEW [VOL. 90:1 equivalent to those that society faces, and (2) possess far superior information concerning how best to balance such trade-offs. Where industries satisfy both criteria, their private preferences will happen to align with social innovation objectives and can be mined for previously untapped, socially beneficial information. The proxy signal approach provides a new public choice methodology, designed to leverage the strength of collective private industry and market knowledge, in a manner that can be applied to other legal domains beyond patent law.
Family Disadvantage and the Gender Gap in Behavioral and Educational Outcomes

Boys born to disadvantaged families have higher rates of disciplinary problems, lower achievement scores, and fewer high school completions than girls from comparable backgrounds. Using birth certificates matched to schooling records for Florida children born 1992–2002, we find that family disadvantage disproportionately impedes the pre-market development of boys. The differential effect of family disadvantage on boys is robust to specifications within schools and neighborhoods as well as across siblings within families. Evidence supports that this is the effect of the postnatal environment; family disadvantage is unrelated to the gender gap in neonatal health. We conclude that the gender gap among black children is larger than among white children in substantial part because black children are raised in more disadvantaged families.
What Do Welfare-to-Work Demonstrations Reveal to Welfare Reformers?

Under the new welfare system, states must design and institute programs that both provide assistance and encourage work, two objectives that have thus far appeared incompatible. Will states meet these new requirements? For many innovative programs, the randomized welfare-to-work experiments conducted over the last three decades may be the only source of observed data. While these experiments yield information on the outcomes of mandated treatments, the new regime permits states and localities much discretion. Using data from four experiments conducted in the mid-1980s, this study examines what welfare-to-work demonstrations reveal about outcomes when the treatments are heterogenous. In the absence of assumptions, these data allow us to draw only limited inferences about the labor market outcomes of welfare recipients. Combined with prior information, however, data from experimental demonstrations are informative, suggesting either that the long run federal requirements cannot be met or that these standards will only be met under special circumstances.
The econometrics of DSGE models

In this paper, I review the literature on the formulation and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with a special emphasis on Bayesian methods. First, I discuss the evolution of DSGE models over the last couple of decades. Second, I explain why the profession has decided to estimate these models using Bayesian methods. Third, I briefly introduce some of the techniques required to compute and estimate these models. Fourth, I illustrate the techniques under consideration by estimating a benchmark DSGE model with real and nominal rigidities. I conclude by offering some pointers for future research.
Democracy and Foreign Education

Despite the large amount of private and public resources spent on foreign edu? cation, there is no systematic evidence that foreign-educated individuals foster democracy in their home countries. Using a unique panel dataset on foreign stu? dents starting in the 1950s, I show that foreign-educated individuals promote democracy in their home country, but only if the foreign education is acquired in democratic countries. The results are robust to several estimation techniques, to different definitions of democracy, and to the inclusion of a variety of control variables, including democracy in trading partners, neighboring countries, level of income, and level and stock of education. (JEL D72,121, 015) Do foreign-educated individuals play a role in fostering democracy in their home countries? Despite the large amount of resources spent on financing foreign education, there is no systematic study on the effects of foreign education on democracy. This paper fills this gap using a dataset on foreign students that includes almost all host and sending countries and spans over 50 years. Numerous policy initiatives and large investment in the United States are based on the notion that foreign-educated students promote democracy in their countries of origin. Through the Fulbright Program, the US government has financed more than 158,000 foreigners studying in the United States.1 The US government not only finances the education of foreign students, but also annually issues more than 250,000 nonimmigrant visas for foreign students; more than five million individuals have received visas to study in the United States since 1971.2 US efforts to educate foreign students have produced impressive results; 46 current and 165 former heads of governments are products of US higher education. Foreign leaders educated in the United
The persistence of relative performance in stock recommendations of sell-side financial analysts

Abstract Analysts with above-median risk-adjusted performance in the estimation period persistently outperform those with below-median performance in the subsequent holdout period. The annualized risk-adjusted returns of trading strategies based on performance persistence are statistically and economically significant, with a magnitude around 10% even after adjusting for transaction costs and trading delays. This stems mostly from past above-median performers and is not simply a decomposition of previously documented post-event return drift. The results support the hypotheses that more information is contained in above-median performers’ recommendations and that investor reaction to these recommendations is incomplete during the event periods.
The Political Economy of Energy and Its Implications for Climate Change Legislation

Public choice themes have arisen throughout the history of U.S. energy regulation and continue to be relevant today, particularly with widespread discussion of deregulation and increased attention to climate change. This Article surveys how public choice themes are relevant to understanding a host of issues of importance to the electric power industry today, including the structure of the industry, the significance of wholesale markets, and the division of regulatory power between state and federal authorities. The Article highlights how an understanding of how public choice has contributed to these features of the electric power industry will prove important to the successes and failures of national climate change policy.
THE SOCIAL CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC DECISIONS

The social context can have a large impact on economic decisions. The theoretical challenge is to formulate a model that encompasses both social and economic decisions in a meaningful manner. We discuss the incorporation of social context into neoclassical economic models using social institutions. We also discuss the relationship between social institutions, social capital, and the social value of assets (introduced by Mailath and Postlewaite (2002)). Keywords: Social Capital, Social Assets, Social Institutions. JEL Classification Codes: Z13
MONEY AS A MECHANISM IN A BEWLEY ECONOMY

We study what features an economic environment might possess, such that it would be Pareto ecient for the exchange of goods in that environment to be conducted on spot markets where those goods trade for money. We prove a conjecture that is essentially due to Bewley [1980, 1983]. The gist is that monetary spot trading is nearly ecient ex ante in an environment where very patient agents can accumulate large enough money stocks to be completely self insured. We also study examples where a nonmonetary mechanism is preferred ex ante to any monetary mechanism (at least, when the comparison is restricted to stationary equilibria) and where an inflationary monetary mechanism is preferred ex ante to a laissez-faire or deflationary monetary mechanism in an environment with impatient agents. J.E.L. Classification: E31, E42
Law's Complexity: A Primer

The legal system. It rolls easily off the tongues of lawyers like a single word - the legal system - as if we all know what it means. But what is the legal system? How does it behave? What are its boundaries? What is its input and output? How will it look in one year? In ten years? How should we use it to make change in some other aspect of social life? Why do answers to these questions make the legal system seem so complex? Would assembling a cogent, descriptively accurate theory of what makes the legal system complex help us to formulate more accurate and useful propositions about the legal system? I have to believe it would, and in my pursuit of such an explanation I have leaned heavily on the theory of complex adaptive systems - the study of systems comprised of a macroscopic, heterogeneous set of autonomous agents interacting and adapting in response to one another and to external environment inputs. At its deepest level, complex adaptive systems theory as applied to the legal system presents a rich and dynamic field of study. It asks whether the targets of law are complex adaptive systems, and if so what that means for law's design. It asks whether law itself, however we define its boundaries, is also a complex adaptive system, and if so what that means for law's design. And it asks how law and its regulatory targets co-evolve and what that means for law's design. This article orients those three questions within the context of complex adaptive systems theory. Part I provides a short primer on complex adaptive systems theory and suggests ways of usefully mapping it onto the legal system to expand our understanding of its behavior and properties. To make the case for the practical utility complex adaptive systems theory has for law, Part II explores a few of the major implications the theoretical foundation has for institutional and instrument design issues in law. I close by offering suggestions for next steps in the development of the theory of law's complexity.
Derivative Exposure and the Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Risks of U.S. Banks

This article estimates the interest rate and exchange rate risk betas of 59 large U.S. commercial banks for the period of 1975–1992, as well as the bank-specific determinants of these betas. The estimation procedure uses a modified seemingly unrelated simultaneous method that recognizes cross-equation dependencies and adjusts for serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. Overall, the exchange rate risk betas are more significant than the interest rate risk betas. More importantly, we find a link between the scale of a bank's interest rate and currency derivative contracts and the bank's interest rate and exchange rate risks. Particularly noteworthy is the influence of currency derivatives on exchange rate betas.
Show me the status: Money as a kind of currency

Currencies that are recognized as money cannot be easily distinguished from alternative currencies such as status. Numerous examples demonstrate the need for status to be recognized as a motivator alongside, at least, money. Lea & Webley (LW however, a closer focus is warranted.
TRIPS Enforcement and Developing Countries

In January 2009, the WTO Dispute Settlement Body released a panel report on China - Measures Affecting the Protection and Enforcement of Intellectual Property Rights. The dispute concerned the inadequacy of protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights in China under the TRIPS Agreement. While both China and the United States were quick to declare victory in this dispute, less developed countries might have become the dispute’s unintended and unannounced winner.As part of the symposium on the Anti-counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA) and international intellectual property enforcement, this Article focuses on the implications of this panel report for less developed countries. It begins by recapitulating the key arguments made by China and the United States as well as the major findings in the report. The article then evaluates the panel report from the standpoint of less developed countries. It explores both the areas where the report has enabled less developed countries to score some important points in the interpretation of the TRIPS Agreement and where it has provided some disappointments.
Sex, Class, and History: An Experiment in Teaching Economics in an Interdisciplinary Setting.

The author reports on various aspects of teaching economics in an interdisciplinary, team-taught course, including reflections on a unique experiment in teaching economics to nonmajors. By the incorporation of selected topics of gender economics into the interdisciplinary course about the changing economic statuses of women throughout history, the students are introduced to the fundamentals of economic thinking and encouraged to become economically literate. Faced with the constraints of no prerequisites and the presence of two instructors at all classes, the author implements pedagogical models of teaching adopted from the education field to achieve a desirable level of comprehension and integration. The author outlines the course design, the challenges, and suggestions about how to improve the course.
Forecasting Prices from Level-I Quotes in the Presence of Hidden Liquidity

Bid and ask sizes at the top of the order book provide information on short-term price moves. Drawing from classical descriptions of the order book in terms of queues and orderarrival rates (Smith et al (2003)), we consider a diusion model for the evolution of the best bid/ask queues. We compute the probability that the next price move is upward, conditional on the best bid/ask sizes, the hidden liquidity of the market and the correlation between changes in the bid/ask sizes. The model can be useful, among other things, to rank trading venues in terms of the \information content" of their quotes and to estimate the hidden liquidity in a market based on high-frequency data. We illustrate the approach with an empirical study of a few liquid stocks using quotes from various exchanges.
Power law and evolutionary trends in stock markets

Abstract We model the distribution of daily stock trading volume using the power law and document a new phenomenon. The power law exponent systematically increases with time suggesting that trading is becoming increasingly concentrated in a subset of stocks.
The Case Against Appointing Politicians to the Supreme Court

In this brief comment on Ben Barton's "An Empirical Study of Supreme Court Justice Pre-Appointment Experience," I argue that appointing persons currently or formerly active in partisan politics would likely not benefit the Court as some have claimed and might affirmatively harm the Court as an institution.
The Effect of Electronic Commerce on Geographic Purchasing Patterns and Price Dispersion

The "law of one price" states that if prices for the same or highly similar goods vary across geographic locations by more than the cost of transport, then traders will shift supply and demand to exploit the price differences. However, several frictions prevent traders from doing this, including lack of information about prices and difficulty trading across locations. Electronic commerce has the potential to reduce these frictions by increasing price visibility and lowering transaction costs. We analyze this by studying how the diffusion of an electronic channel affected geographic trading patterns and price dispersion in the wholesale used vehicle market from 2003 to 2008. We find that buyers used the channel to shift their demand geographically to exploit price differences, which reduced geographic price dispersion. We find that the electronic channel also influenced how sellers distributed supply, but we find little evidence that this led to reduced geographic price dispersion. This paper was accepted by Lorin Hitt, information systems.
Can Strong Creditors Inhibit Entrepreneurial Activity

We examine entrepreneurial activity following the adoption of fraudulent transfer laws in the U.S. These laws strengthen creditor rights by removing the burden of proof from creditors attempting to claw back funds that were transferred out of failing businesses. These laws are particularly important for entrepreneurs whose personal assets are often commingled with those of the venture. Using establishment-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we find significant declines in start-up entry, churning among new entrants, and closures of existing ventures after the passage of these laws. Our findings suggest that strengthening creditor rights can, in some circumstances, impede entrepreneurial activity and slow down the process of creative destruction.
Rethinking the Meaning of Public Health

ublic health is a dynamic field. Outbreaks of new diseases, as well as changing patterns of population P growth, economic development, and lifestyle trends all may threaten public health and thus demand a public health response. As the practice of public health evolves, there is an ongoing need to reassess its scientific, ethical, legal, and social underpinnings. Such a reappraisal must consider the disagreement among public health officials, public health scholars, elected officials, and the public about the proper role of public health and the distinctions, for example, between public health and clinical care, and public health and health promotion. In this article I will attempt to characterize the main points of contention as well as offer my own views regarding the proper scope of public health. Greater clarity and consensus on the meaning of public health are likely to lead to more efficient and effective public health interventions as well as increased public and political support for public health activities.
Source reconstruction and stability via boundary control of abstract viscoelastic systems

We study the inverse source problem for a class of viscoelastic systems from a single boundary measurement in a general spatial dimension. We give specific reconstruction formula and stability esti...
Probing the Nucleon Structure with CLAS

An overview of recent results with CLAS is presented with emphasis on the nucleon resonance program and related topics.
On the choice between two delta-hedging strategies

This paper studies the choice between two popular hedging strategies by assuming that the hedge position (delta) follows a Markov chain with boundary conditions. We give the formula for long-run cost per unit time under two different cost structures: (I) a fixed transaction cost and (II) a non-fixed transaction cost. Then, we consider the case where the hedge position follows a random walk; we show that (i) re-balancing delta to the initial position is always more cost-efficient than re-balancing it to the edge for a fixed transaction cost; (ii) under certain conditions, re-balancing delta to the initial position is less cost-efficient than re-balancing it to the edge for a non-fixed transaction cost. In addition, we quantify the magnitude of the efficiency in both cases.
Is There Any Contagion in Emerging Debt Markets

This paper empirically tests for the existence of contagion in emerging debt markets following Russia and Argentina’s government defaults. Using several techniques that have been previously suggested for contagion tests in stock markets we find that debt markets respond differently to financial crises than stock markets. Volatilities and correlations do not increase significantly during default episodes and no evidence supporting spillover effects is found. However, we find evidence of contagion in extreme returns during both crisis periods as well as in the entire sample period. We conclude that contagion in emerging bond markets is more likely driven by their high linkages than by crisis episodes.
Resolving Transcriptional States and Predicting Lineages in the Annelid Capitella teleta Using Single-Cell RNAseq

Evolution and diversification of cell types has contributed to animal evolution. However, gene regulatory mechanisms underlying cell fate acquisition during development remains largely uncharacterized in spiralians. Here we use a whole-organism, single-cell transcriptomic approach to map larval cell types in the annelid Capitella teleta at 24- and 48-hours post gastrulation (stages 4 and 5). We identified eight unique cell clusters (undifferentiated precursors, ectoderm, muscle, ciliary-band, gut, neurons, neurosecretory cells and protonephridia), thus helping to identify previously uncharacterized molecular signatures such as novel neurosecretory cell markers. Analysis of coregulatory programs in individual clusters revealed gene interactions that can be used for comparisons of cell types across taxa. We examined the neural and neurosecretory clusters more deeply and characterized a differentiation trajectory starting from dividing precursors to neurons using Monocle3 and velocyto. Pseudotime analysis along this trajectory identified temporally-distinct cell states undergoing progressive gene expression changes over time. Our data revealed two potentially distinct neural differentiation trajectories including an early trajectory for brain neurosecretory cells. This work provides a valuable resource for future functional investigations to better understanding neurogenesis and the transitions from neural precursors to neurons in an annelid.
Understanding Emerging Threats to Online Advertising

Two recent disruptions to the online advertising market are the widespread use of ad-blocking software and proposed restrictions on third-party tracking, trends that are driven largely by consumer concerns over privacy. Both primarily impact display advertising (as opposed to search and native social ads), and affect how retailers reach customers and how content producers earn revenue. It is, however, unclear what the consequences of these trends are. We investigate using anonymized web browsing histories of 14 million individuals, focusing on "retail sessions" in which users visit online sites that sell goods and services. We find that only 3% of retail sessions are initiated by display ads, a figure that is robust to permissive attribution rules and consistent across widely varying market segments. We further estimate the full distribution of how retail sessions are initiated, and find that search advertising is three times more important than display advertising to retailers, and search advertising is itself roughly three times less important than organic web search. Moving to content providers, we find that display ads are shown by 12% of websites, accounting for 32% of their page views; this reliance is concentrated in online publishing, e.g., news outlets) where the rate is 91%. While most consumption is either in the long-tail of websites that do not show ads, or sites like Facebook that show native, first-party ads, moderately sized web publishers account for a substantial fraction of consumption, and we argue that they will be most affected by changes in the display advertising market. Finally, we use estimates of ad rates to judge the feasibility of replacing lost ad revenue with a freemium or donation-based model.