Mini Symposium: Race and the 2008 Presidential Election

The Barack Obama "hope" poster was an iconic image of Obama's political campaign (Figure 1). A stencil portrait of Obama in red, white and blue had the words hope, change, or progress under the image of Obama. It was created and distributed widely on posters, digital images, and other campaign paraphernalia during the 2008 election season. The image became one of the most widely recognized symbols of Obama's campaign message, spawning many variations. The poster echoed Martin Luther King's historic fight for civil rights for African Americans. While Martin Luther King fought for voting rights for African Americans, Obama fought to become the nation's political leader. Not only was hope and change the message of the Obama campaign, but the candidate himself represented America's changing demographic face. On November 4, 2008, Barack Obama became the president-elect and the first African American president of the United States. The same year (2008) Latinos constituted over 15 percent of America's population, African Americans 13 percent, and Asian Americans 5 percent. Combined, these groups represented over one-third of the population. White non- Hispanics accounted for just 65 percent of the population, down from 85 percent in 1960. Projections by the U.S. Census Bureau indicate that by 2050 white non-Hispanics will account for only 50 percent of America's population, with Latinos 30 percent. Of the nation's children in 2050, a majority (62 percent) are expected to be of a minority ethnicity, up from 44 percent today. Diversity is a theme that will grow in importance in the coming decades. A decade earlier, Rodney Hero (1999), in Faces of Inequality: Social Diversity in American Politics, wrote of an unstoppable demographic force of race/ethnicity reshaping American politics. In reviewing the book, Jennifer Hochchild (Princeton) stated, "Academics are finally relearning what politicians (and V. O. Key) have known all along-that the racial and ethnic composition of a state is crucial for determining the political structure and policy outcomes within that state." Five decades earlier, V. O. Key (1949) defined Southern Politics by race. Key examined the underlying forces that structured politics in Southern states, putting black disenfranchisement at the center. But the widespread explicit racism that Key documented is uncommon today. The election of Barack Obama as the first African American president is evidence for many that the equality dreamed of during the 1950s and 1960s civil rights movements has been, in some part, achieved. Yet scholars of race and politics continue to highlight the importance of race and ethnicity in modern social, economic, and political inequality. There is some evidence that Obama's race was a significant disadvantage in the 2008 election. Despite his clear electoral victory over John McCain, some argue that Obama's winning margin was much smaller than expected given the state of the economy and historically low approval rating of the incumbent president (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2008, 2009). The question of race was ever present in the 2008 presidential election. However, there is considerable resistance from scholars and political pundits to the idea that there was racist voting in 2008. This mini symposium challenges that assumption with a variety of empirical analyses of white voters, drawing on both aggregate-level and individual-level data. The articles also explore the 2008 elections in terms of mobilization of minority voters and the growing influence of Latino voters. It concludes by exploring the spillover effects of increased minority turnout on a critical issue election (same-sex marriage). Drawing on a variety of advanced statistical methods and theoretical lenses, the articles shed new light on our understanding of diversity in American democracy-as white, black, Latino, and Asian Americans seek representation. Drawing on papers originally presented at a Shambaugh conference at the University of Iowa in 2008, this mini symposium begins by examining white voting patterns nationally in the presidential primaries and general election using aggregate data. …