Survival patterns among newcomers to franchising

Abstract This study examines survival patterns among franchisee and nonfranchise small firms and establishments that entered business during 1986 and 1987. Aspiring entrepreneurs purchasing franchises choose this path to small business entry, in part, because they expect to improve their chances of survival during the turbulent early years of operation. Evidence to date has been mixed: some studies conclude that franchising is a low-risk route to small business ownership, while others suggest that independent start-ups are more likely to remain in operation than franchises. This study utilizes two distinct methodological approaches to investigate franchisee survival patterns. The first approach demonstrates that franchise units have better survival prospects than independents, and the second approach demonstrates that young firms formed without the benefit of a franchisor parent are more likely to remain in operation than franchised start-ups. Reconciliation of these seemingly inconsistent findings is explored. Survival measurement is heavily influenced by the unit of analysis in franchising. Firm-specific data show different patterns than establishment-specific data when young franchise units are tracked through time. Analysis of establishments owned by corporations is undertaken for restaurants opened nationwide in 1986 and 1987. Using Census Bureau data describing corporate-owned restaurant establishments that reported payroll to the IRS in 1987, 52,088 young establishments were identified; 22.5% were franchises. Comparison of the franchisee and independent restaurant units indicated that independents were more likely to cease operations by 1988 than franchises. The fact that franchisee establishments had a better survival track record than independent restaurants does not, however, demonstrate that aspiring entrepreneurs improve their survival prospects by purchasing a franchise. In fact, 84% of the new franchise establishments under consideration were units of multi-establishment corporations, and few of these corporate parents were new businesses. Envision a corporation in operation for 15 years that owns 20 McDonalds restaurants; in 1987 they opened their twenty-first unit. The findings of this study indicate that this twenty-first unit has excellent survival prospects, more so than either an independent start-up or a franchisee opening a restaurant for the first time. New franchised restaurant units, overall, may be a safe investment, although simultaneously, the newcomer opening a franchise may face a high-risk situation. The analysis then shifts from establishments owned by franchisees to young firms (not establishments) started in 1986 and 1987 as proprietorships, partnerships, or S-corporations. Among these young firms, franchisees are found to have lower survival rates than independent start-ups, and these differences persist when various firm and owner traits are controlled for statistically. Retailing is found to be a particularly difficult field for young franchised firms: risk of firm closure is high and mean profits are negative. The most common route into retailing entailed purchasing an operating franchise unit from its previous owner, that is, an ongoing franchise. Over 53% of the young franchised retailing firms started in 1986 and 1987 were ongoing operations. By 1991, only 52.4% of these firms were still operating with the owner of record present in 1987. The findings of this study indicate, on balance, that purchase of a franchise is unlikely to reduce the risks facing a new business start-up. This does not imply that the multi-establishment franchisee adding another new franchise unit to its existing chain of operations faces a high-risk situation. Rather, the high risk facing the franchisee newcomer is partially rooted in the fact that so many of the newly-opened units in mature franchising niches are owned by multi-unit franchisees that have greater experience and resources than newcomers who are attempting to enter the industry.