Community activism, effects of the economy and state policies on welfare rolls, and research methodologies

An important current issue in U.S. social policy is enabling families to leave welfare for employment. Two articles in this issue address the effect of state policies and of the economy on welfare recipients' entry into the workforce. A third article looks at the effects of community activism on residents' sense of empowerment. In methodology notes, one article addresses a design and statistical procedure for simulating a long longitudinal study with a relatively short-term design, and another investigates the return rate for questionnaires when the demographic questions are placed first or last. To examine whether policy changes or the economy had greater effect on single-parent caseloads in California, Albert pulled together monthly data from the state departments of finance, social services, and industrial relations and from the federal departments of labor and agriculture. During the months from January 1983 through December 1998, there were major changes in the California economy and several changes in policy for AFDC-FG and its successor CalWORKs. She used time series analysis to examine which of these factors (controlled for inflation) were associated with the proportion of women of child-beating age on welfare. Measures of the welfare policies included maximum benefits and the presence of one of three policies (AFDC), disregarding a modest amount of earned income beyond four months (a federal waiver), and disregarding a larger amount of earned income (CalWORKs). Economic variables included minimum wages for full-time employment and the civilian employment rate. Results indicated that lower welfare benefits were associated with a slightly lower welfare rate, but the effects of the different welfare policies were insignificant. Wages and employment rate were more strongly associated with welfare rate. Albert concludes that "economic growth was associated with almost five times the reduction associated with the waivers or CalWORKs." Thus, based on historical data, the economy is a much more potent factor in welfare caseloads than the policies one state implemented. Kim examines similar issues--the effect of individual characteristics, the economy, and state welfare policies on employment patterns of parents receiving public assistance under Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). She used a national sample from the 1998 Current Population Survey, a cross-sectional study of the noninstitutionalized population of the United States. Looking retrospectively, Kim classified 1,221 parents who had received benefits from AFDC or TANF in 1997 as "employed" if they were employed in both 1997 and 1998. Independent variables included the parent's individual characteristics, geographic region, local unemployment rate, and state welfare-reform policies. Two statistical models were tested through logistic regression. Parents were more likely to be employed if they were better educated, not disabled, and not Hispanic. At a broader level, employment was higher if the local unemployment rate was lower, if the state had experimented with work-related reform for a longer period before TANF, and if the state had more severe sanctions for noncompliance. State policies about immediate work and lifetime limits had no association with recipient employment. In an analysis of the effects of community activism, Itzhaky and York look at participation in community organizations and individual sense of empowerment. …