ECONOMIC NEWS ON TELEVISION THE DETERMINANTS OF COVERAGE

This paper examines the television networks' coverage of the unemployment rate, the inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index, and the growth rate of real GNP over the twelve years from 1973 through 1984. This time period includes two major recessions, two severe bursts of inflation, and three presidential elections. A common complaint is that the networks overemphasize bad economic news. Using two measures of coverage, this paper examines whether the television networks give greater coverage to these statistics when they are deteriorating. The empirical results reveal that the networks do give greater coverage to bad economic news during nonelection years, but this pattern disappears during election years. The empirical results also reveal that presidential comments are very powerful in shaping the amount of coverage given to these economic statistics. There is strong evidence that television news plays a powerful role in shaping public opinion (Kinder and Iyengar, 1987). This influence, however, may or may not be desirable. According to Kinder and Iyengar, this depends on the "thorny question" of "how faithfully the pictures and stories that appear on the news each night portray what of real consequence is actually happening in the world" (1987:122). The networks' coverage of the economy presents a wonderful opportunity to investigate this question for two reasons. First, there is a common perception among some critics that the networks' coverage of the economy distorts reality. These critics complain that the networks overemphasize bad economic news. For example, economist Herbert Stein-a former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors-believes that "the press communicates an excesDAVID E. HARRINGTON iS the Himmelright Assistant Professor of Economics at Kenyon College. The author would like to thank Bruce Corrie and John Scott for their research assistance as well as Rick Coe, John Elliott, Kathy Krynski, Jim Likens, Mark Montgomery, Steve Marks, Hans Palmer, Gary Smith, Peter Weipert, and Frank Wykoff for their helpful comments. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 53:17-40 ? 1989 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/88/0053-01/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.106 on Mon, 25 Apr 2016 05:56:40 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 18 David E. Harrington sively dramatic, anxious and negative view of the economy" (Stein, 1975:40). Similarly, President Reagan complained during the 1982-83 recession that the constantly "downbeat" coverage of the economy was inhibiting the recovery (Washington Post, 1982). In response, CBS anchorman Dan Rather argues that these criticisms are attempts to "convince the public that problems are not problems" (Associated Press, 1983). In other words, he believes that these critics are blaming the messengers for bad economic news. Second, the actual performance of the economy is continuously measured by several economic statistics. As a result, it is possible to examine how the coverage of the economy'depends on the actual performance of the economy. This paper uses the networks' coverage of the unemployment rate, the inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index, and the growth rate of real GNP over the twelve years from 1973 through 1984 to test whether the television networks give greater coverage to these statistics when they are deteriorating, holding other factors constant. The paper also examines how the coverage changes during election years and whether the president can influence the amount of coverage by commenting on the statistics.