Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

The Basics What is Risk? What Is Risk Analysis? Why Do Risk Analysis? Who Does Risk Analysis? When Should We Do Risk Analysis? Organization of Book Uncertainty Uncertainty from 75,000 Feet The Uncertainty on Your Desk Being Intentional About Uncertainty Risk Management Identifying Problems and Opportunities Risk Estimation Risk Evaluation Risk Control Risk Monitoring Risk Management Models Risk Assessment What Makes a Good Risk Assessment? Definitions Risk Assessment Activities Risk Assessment Models Risk Assessment Methods Risk Communication Definitions Internal Risk Communication External Risk Communication Problem Identification for Risk Management What's a Problem? What's an Opportunity? Becoming Aware of Problems and Opportunities Problem and Opportunity Identification Techniques The P&O Statement Brainstorming What Can You Brainstorm? Background Avoid Problems in Your Process A Few Good Techniques 3x Yeah Group Evaluations with Colored Dots Do You Need a Facilitator? Addendum Opportunity Costs and Trade-Offs Economics for Risk Managers Economics and Decision Making Economic Basis for Interactions among People Principles of the Economy as a Whole Making Trade-Offs Economic Analysis Qualitative Risk Assessment Risk = Probability x Consequence A Generic Process More or Less Risk Risk Narratives Evidence Maps Ordering Techniques The Risk Matrix Qualitative Risk Assessment Models MCDA A Semiquantitative Risk Assessment Example The Art and Practice of Risk Assessment Modeling Types of Models A Model-Building Process Simulation Models Required Skill Sets Probability Review Two Schools of Thought Probability Essentials How Do We Get Probabilities? Working with Probabilities Why You Need to Know This Choosing a Probability Distribution Graphical Review Strategy for Selecting a Probability Distribution Example 1 Example 2 A Dozen Useful Probability Distributions for Risk Assessors Probability Elicitation Probability Words Subjective Probability When to Do an Elicitation Making Judgments under Uncertainty Responding to Heuristics The Elicitation Protocol Calibration Multiple Experts Monte Carlo Process Background A Two-Step Process How Many Iterations? Sampling Method An Illustration Probabilistic Scenario Analysis Common Scenarios Types of Scenario Analysis Scenario Comparisons Tools for Constructing Scenarios Adding Probability to the Scenarios An Example Sensitivity Analysis Qualitative Sensitivity Analysis Quantitative Sensitivity Analysis The Point Presenting and Using Assessment Results Understand Your Assessment Output Data Before You Explain It Examine the Quantities Examine the Probabilities Examine Relationships Answer the Questions Visualization of Data Decision Making under Uncertainty Message Development Communication Models The Need for Message Strategies for Risk Communication Crisis Communication Message Mapping Impediments to Risk Communication Developing Risk Communication Messages Appendix A: The Language of Risk and ISO 31000 ISO 31000 Enterprise Risk Management Observations Appendix B: Using Palisade's Decision Tools Suite TopRank @RISK PrecisionTree Index All chapters include an introduction, summary, and references.