A Case of Contested Sovereignty: Explaining Ethnic Conflict in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, 1991-2002

In this paper, I explore why ethnic minorities engage in violence after gaining significant concessions from a ruling majority group. I use the case of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia because it allows me to evaluate the complex interaction of domestic and international causes in the emergence of ethnic violence. Instrumentalism and Lake and Rothchild's 'strategic dilemma' approach provide important insights in explaining violence in Macedonia. I complement these two theoretical approaches with an analysis of the strategic setting in the Balkans prior to the eruption of violence in Macedonia. I argue that Macedonian and ethnic Albanian leaders took advantage of the external challenges to Macedonia's sovereignty to mobilize their respective constituencies. The two groups' elites helped radicalize inter-group perceptions, which incited ethnic violence. The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (Note 1) (FYROM) is a tiny land-locked country where multiple ethnic groups vie for access to scarce political and economic resources.(Note 2) Why did the number of hostile encounters between ethnic Albanians and the Macedonian Slavs in Macedonia increase between 1991 and 2002, given that the Albanian minority's situation progressively improved? Using the case of Macedonia, I analyze the emergence of ethnic violence at a time of economic and political improvement for an ethnic minority. The analysis presented here is rooted in two theoretical approaches - instrumentalism and Lake and Rothchild's 'strategic dilemma' approach. I complement the insights gleaned from these analytical frameworks with an enquiry into Macedonia's regional environment, for it is hardly possible to fully explain ethnic conflict in Macedonia without considering the actions and political statements of Bulgarian, Serbian, Albanian, and Greek political elites. I argue that Macedonian and ethnic Albanian leaders capitalized on the external challenges to Macedonia's sovereignty to mobilize their respective constituents' support. This grassroots mobilization helped radicalize the two groups' political views and resulted in ethnic violence. Leaders such as Ljubco Georgievski, who served as prime minister between 1998 and 2002, built political support around the idea that Macedonia's neighbors were a constant external threat to its sovereignty, while ethnic Albanians were presented as an internal threat to Macedonian territorial integrity. The Macedonian ethnic majority succumbed to those beliefs, which were only perpetuated by their virtual lack of contact with the Albanian community. (Note 3) Animosity rose and street violence, perpetrated by radical ethnic Albanians, ensued. International relations scholars have traditionally been interested in understanding why ethnic conflict emerges and how ethnic unrest could be prevented or stopped. Few have explored the causes of ethnic conflict intensification, the rapid and intentional mobilization of ethnic violence to achieve political goals. (Note 4) Macedonia is a particularly interesting case study of ethnic conflict intensification that could help us understand how a low-intensity low-violence conflict spirals into a high-intensity high-violence one. Balkan history scholars have engaged in numerous arguments on the nascence of inter-ethnic conflict between the Albanians and Macedonians. (Note 5) The timeline presented by a Macedonian source traces the beginning of the conflict to the 1990s, when more than 2,000 ethnic Albanians protested in the city of Tetovo against the Macedonian majority's