Political Trust and Negative Campaigns: Two Tests of the Figure‐Ground Hypothesis

Despite what many Americans believe, there is little evidence that increased campaign negativity has contributed to the loss of public trust in government in recent decades. In this article, we consider the relationship between negative campaigning and trust in a different light. The “figure-ground hypothesis” suggests that negative information is more likely than positive information to shape people's attitudes and behavior, in part because negativity “stands out” in a world where most of us have positive expectations of others. Accordingly, we posit that negative campaign ads are most effective among those who possess a high level of trust in their political leaders. The catch is that high trust is uncommon in U.S. politics today, in which case negative appeals may play to a smaller audience than in the past. Our data indicate, however, that a well-conceived negative campaign ad can influence voter choice regardless of one's feelings about government. Related Articles Jones, David A., Kathleen Ferraiolo, and Jennifer Byrne. 2011. “Selective Media Exposure and Partisan Differences about Sarah Palin's Candidacy.” Politics and Policy 39 (2): 195-221. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2011.00288.x/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false Caillier, James. 2010. “Citizen Trust, Political Corruption, and Voting Behavior: Connecting the Dots.” Politics and Policy 38 (5): 1015-1035. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2010.00267.x/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false Lewis, Gregory B., Marc A. Rogers, and Kenneth Sherrill. 2011. “Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Voters in the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election.” Politics and Policy 39 (5): 655-677. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2011.00315.x/abstract Related Media Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. 2013. “Trust in Government Nears Record Low, But Most Federal Agencies Are Viewed Favorably.” October 18. http://www.people-press.org/2013/10/18/trust-in-government-nears-record-low-but-most-federal-agencies-are-viewed-favorably/ University of Wisconsin Advertising Project. 2008. “Overview.” http://wiscadproject.wisc.edu/ Efowler. 2012. “Presidential Ads 70 Percent Negative in 2012, Up from 9 Percent in 2008.” http://mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/2012/05/02/jump-in-negativity/ A pesar de lo que muchos estadounidenses creen, existe poca evidencia que indique que el aumento en la negatividad de las campanas ha contribuido a la perdida de confianza publica en el gobierno durante las ultimas decadas. En este articulo analizamos la relacion entre la negatividad en las campanas y la confianza desde un enfoque diferente. La llamada hipotesis FGH (por sus siglas en ingles) sugiere que la informacion negativa es mas propensa que la informacion positiva a ser usada para establecer el comportamiento y actitud de las personas, en parte debido a que la negatividad “sobresale” en un mundo donde la mayoria de las personas tiene expectativas positivas de los demas. Por lo tanto, argumentamos que los anuncios que se enfocan en la negatividad son mas efectivos entre aquellas personas que tienen gran confianza en sus lideres politicos. El problema es que un nivel alto de confianza en la politica de los Estados Unidos es poco comun hoy en dia, en cuyo caso la negatividad puede estar dirigida a una pequena audiencia. Sin embargo, nuestros resultados indican que una campana negativa debidamente planeada puede influenciar la eleccion del elector sin importar la actitud actual hacia el gobierno.