Kennedy, Johnson, and Policy toward China: Testing the Importance of the President in Foreign Policy Decision Making

Presidents and their advisors are absolutely certain that their individual contributions to American foreign policy are significant, unique, and often heroic. An administration's legacy in foreign policy is the product of the president's vision or at least the result of an opportunity seized by a shrewd and decisive leader. In this sense, it is more than literary convention when scholars personify a policy, naming it the "Truman Doctrine" or "Johnson's War" or the "Reagan Doctrine." This view runs counter to the rise of the Institutional model in presidential studies. This body of work often argues that characteristics of individual presidents are irrelevant; political and legal forces create a context for presidential policy making, and all presidents will react to those forces in a similar manner, making decisions based on rational choice calculations. This debate over whether individual presidents matter is critical to the evolution of presidential studies (Cohen 2009; Dickinson 2009; Jacobs 2009; Mayer 2009; Moe 2009; Rockman 2009; Skowronek 2009; Wood 2009). While scholars may be pleased with their ability to develop parsimonious and more rigorous models of the presidency, veteran policy makers might argue that scholars are missing the essence of decision: people make decisions, and different people make different decisions even in similar situations. (1) The more personality-centered model, often called some variation on Persuasion or Bargaining (hereafter Persuasion model) and derived from the seminal work of Richard Neustadt, sees the ways in which individual presidents choose to wield their power as the crucial characteristic in executive branch decision making. Presidents use their powers of persuasion to bargain with organizations and individuals in an effort to direct policy in a desired direction (Neustadt 1990). In contrast, the Institutional model downplays the importance of the president's decision-making impact, contending that as the presidency has become more institutionalized, it has decreased the importance of the character of the individual president (Moe 1989, 1998, 2009) This article dives into that debate by developing a research design that tries to isolate the impact of the president as a variable. The transition from President John F.Kennedy (JFK) to President Lyndon B. Johnson (LBJ) provides a measure of experimental control that is unique (however morbid). The tragedy of JFK's assassination left LBJ as the leader of JFK's hand-picked foreign policy team facing a set of challenges initially defined by JFK. In short, were any variations in the decision-making structure that followed the transition based on LBJ's idiosyncratic style, or were institutional pressures the cause of any changes? Focusing on a specific policy area, in this case China policy, creates an additional measure of control. If the Institutional model is correct in its assumptions, the replacement of JFK with LBJ should have had little effect on the policy process. The independent variable in the foreign policy process is the set of external and internal institutional pressures facing the administration. Consistency or variation in management structures will be based on the consistency or variation in those institutional pressures. However, if the Persuasion models are correct, the change in the White House should redefine the foreign policy process, since JFK and LBJ are typically considered to be very different types of presidents with very different management styles. The decision-making needs of the individual president are the independent variable. This article first considers the Institutional model and the Persuasion model then develops a case study research design to test the impact of the president on decision making. A structured-focused comparison methodology is used to assess change or the lack of change (George 1979; George and Bennett 2004; George and McKeown 1985). A standard set of questions provides a comparative framework for each case study. …