Labor Availability and Productivity Forecasting

The idea for this endeavor grew out of concerns surrounding the dramatically increased volume of construction, estimated at more than $20 billion, planned and funded for the Puget Sound region over the next five to ten years. This volume of construction has resulted in a shortage of skilled labor, undesirable competition among local contractors, material shortages, project delays and significant increases in the overall cost of each project. To address these problems, this project develops a comprehensive monitoring system for project procurement practices, manpower supply and demand projections, and a scheduling model for the proposed projects in the Puget Sound region. This comprehensive scheduling model provides contractors and owners with availability and requirements of manpower on a project by project basis for all planned projects above a minimum size. This site analyses and produces actual labor availability projections that are immediately useful to contractors and owners in every area of the country, especially the north west. The website from Phase I of this project demonstrated proof of concept and implementation that can then easily be used to develop (Phase II) a website of national labor supply and demand forecasts, and likely productivity rates specific to future planned projects. Introduction Labor shortages in the construction trades throughout the United States are of great concern to those involved in the construction industry due to the high cost of premium labor. Various studies and news articles have pointed out that over the next several years, there will be a shortage of skilled trade labor (Seattle Times, 7/18/99). These shortages can be traced to the attrition of workers out of the industry due to retirement by the “baby boomer” generation and the lack of incoming apprentices. Along with other factors, the number of skilled and unskilled construction workers has not stayed equal to that of demand and in the future, this problem will be exacerbated. The result of this project was the development of a website that demonstrates proof of concept for the reporting of labor supply and demand information, by state, for the construction industry. Once up and operating, there has been little or no maintenance necessary on this site. The purpose of this project was to give the contractor and owner specific labor availability projections on a project by project basis for future/proposed projects. The labor projections produced are used to develop online information that allows the contractor and owner to better predict manpower requirements and labor productivity factors that will lead to more accurate estimates and ultimately to increased profits. An additional feature that occurred because of this effort was that owners also are able to predict the most desirable time to let a project for bid (in essence, regional resource leveling). Copyright ASCE 2004 Construction Research 2003 2 As the construction industry works to increase the long term supply of construction trade laborer by developing interest in the building trades and increasing the number of people entering the industry, short-term solutions must be found to reduce the costs associated with labor shortages. The website that was developed as a result of this project provides the industry with additional tools to predict labor demands in particular areas or regions. Typically, general contractors depend on familiarity with the market to forecast the labor environment on their projects. It is also normally the case that traditional labor availability studies become less and less accurate as time passes. Prior to the development of this website, the industry has had nothing like this predictive tool. This website is a breakthrough in labor forecasting and analysis. In order to incorporate all of the necessary data about the trade labor environment it is necessary to have an understanding of an area’s labor supply and the factors affecting labor demand. Therefore, this website takes advantage of labor supply statistics that are available through local municipalities or the state department of labor. The number of new construction projects being permitted by the local municipality or government agency is also utilized and indicates the amount of demand there will be for construction trade labor. The website described in this paper was built incorporating the above mentioned supply and demand information to predict surplus and shortfalls for different trade labor groups. This model utilizes published industry standards and incorporates schedule and labor demand requirements from historical records as well as propitiatory resource leveling software. Also provided are the costs associated with each particular construction trade and the number of manhours required at a particular time. Published to a website, and maintained, this model provides the construction community in Seattle with several different tools that allow owners, general contractors and specialty contractors to schedule around predicted labor shortages in particular trades. Working around labor shortages has provided savings to owners by allowing them to avoid the premium costs associated with labor shortages. Website Miscellaneous site pages as shown on the accompanying preliminary site map outline the nature of the website developed for this project (Figure 1): This website has many of the similar pages you would expect to find such as a Home Page, Contact Information Page and a Subscriber Page. However, this paper will focus on the unique aspects of the site, namely, the area that deals with the various reports. In entering this section of the site, the user needs to first needs to select the geographic region they are interested in. The site incorporates a process that maps the DCLU (Department of Design, Construction and Land Use) website which enables this site to capture most projects and the necessary information when the Land Use permit is filed for (this information is shown in Figure 2). Copyright ASCE 2004 Construction Research 2003 3 Construction Forecasting Reports About The Project/Website Subscriber Information Contact Information Administration Search Results Data Mgt Edit Records Submit Records Delete Records Visitor Status Figure 1 Site Map Figure 2 – DCLU Online Permit Information Copyright ASCE 2004 Construction Research 2003 4 The example utilized throughout will be the new Seattle Seahawk Stadium located in the downtown corridor of Seattle, WA. This corridor is shown in Fig. 3. Figure 3 – Downtown Seattle The Downtown Seattle area is further subdivided into eight sectors. By identifying the sector of interest, the lists of available projects become reduced. The eight sectors are shown below in Figure 4. Figure 4 – Downtown Seattle Sector Map New Construction in Seattle ❧ The City of Seattle is divided into Downtown Seattle and the greater Seattle area. ❧ Also more information can be found about projects that the Port of Seattle and Sound Transit are performing on the separate pages found for these two entities. ❧ Select the area you would like to view for a more detailed breakdown. Home Reports Sound Transit & Port of Seattle New Project Survey Home Reports Sound Transit & Port of Seattle New Project Survey Click on the sector you want information about Downtown Seattle Sector Map Copyright ASCE 2004 Construction Research 2003 5 Once a sector is selected, lists of projects are shown as well as available reports. Figure 5. below, has been simplified for this paper, however, it demonstrates some of the options available. Figure 5 – South Seattle and Lower Downtown One of the options is to sort the project by size. For example, the user can specify that they are interested in viewing only projects larger than $100 mil. A simple bar chart is produced that shows the projects durations that meet the specified sort criteria. This information is determined from knowing the size/value of the project and the expected start date of construction which is provided for on the land use permit. Figure 6. demonstrates this feature. Figure 6 – Downtown Seattle Projects/Map and Schedule South Seattle & Lower Downtown ❧Seahawk Stadium ❧ Seattle Exhibit Parking Garage ❧ Seattle Exhibit Hall Home Downtown Seattle Map Sound Transit & Port of Seattle Master Schedule Global Labor Projections New Project Survey Downtown Seattle Projects Maps & Schedules 200