Climate Change: The Political Situation

Human-induced climate change is one of the most important environmental issues facing society worldwide. The overwhelming majority of scientific experts and governments acknowledge that there is strong scientific evidence demonstrating that human activities are changing the Earth's climate and that further human-induced climate change is inevitable. Changes in the Earth's climate are projected to adversely affect socioeconomic systems (such as water, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries), terrestrial and aquatic ecological systems, and human health. Developing countries are projected to be most adversely affected, and poor people within them are the most vulnerable. The magnitude and timing of changes in the Earth's climate will depend on the future demand for energy, the way it is produced and used, and changes in land use, which in turn affect emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosol precursors. The most comprehensive and ambitious attempt to negotiate binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions is contained in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, an agreement forged in a meeting of more than 160 nations, in which most developed countries agreed to reduce their emissions by 5 to 10% relative to the levels emitted in 1990. Although the near-term challenge for most industrialized countries is to achieve their Kyoto targets, the long-term challenge is to meet the objectives of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), i.e., stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at levels that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, with specific attention being paid to food security, ecological systems, and sustainable economic development. To stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide requires that emissions eventually be reduced to only a small fraction of current emissions, i.e., 5 to 10% of current emissions. All major industrialized countries except the United States, the Russian Federation, and Australia have ratified the Kyoto Protocol. The United States and Australia have publicly stated that they will not ratify it, and statements from the Russian Federation are contradictory. Russian ratification is essential for the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force. The United States has stated that the Kyoto Protocol is flawed policy for four reasons: 1. There are still considerable scientific uncertainties. However, although it is possible that the projected human-induced changes in climate have been overestimated, it is equally possible that they have been underestimated. Hence, scientific uncertainties, as agreed by the governments under Article 3 of the UNFCCC, are no excuse for inaction (the precautionary principle). 2. High compliance costs would hurt the U.S. economy. This is in contrast to the analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which estimated that the costs of compliance for the United States would be between US$14 and US$135 per ton of carbon avoided with international carbon dioxide emissions trading (a 5-cents-per-gallon gasoline tax would be equivalent to US$20 per ton of carbon). These costs could be further reduced by the use of carbon sinks, by carbon trading with developing countries, and by the reduction of other greenhouse gas emissions. 3. It is not fair, because large developing countries such as India and China are not obligated to reduce their emissions. However, fairness is an equity issue. The parties to the Kyoto Protocol agreed that industrialized countries had an obligation to take the first steps to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, recognizing that ∼80% of the total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have been emitted from industrialized countries (the United States currently emits ∼25% of global emissions); that per capita emissions in industrialized countries far exceed those from developing countries; that developing countries do not have the financial, technological, or institutional capability of industrialized countries to address the issue; and that increased use of energy is essential for poverty alleviation and long-term economic growth in developing countries. 4. It will not be effective, because developing countries are not obligated to reduce their emissions. It is true that long-term stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases cannot be achieved without global reductions, especially given that most of the projected growth in greenhouse gas emissions over the next 100 years is from developing countries. Hence, developing countries will have to limit their emissions of greenhouse gases, but industrialized countries should take the lead, as agreed in Kyoto. Protection of the climate system will require substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions; hence, the Kyoto Protocol is recognized to be only the first step on a long journey to protect the climate system. However, unless the United States agrees to meaningful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, it is highly unlikely that major developing countries will agree to limit their emissions or that industrialized countries will agree to further reductions beyond those already agreed in Kyoto. One very positive development is that about half of the U.S. states have enacted some climate protection measures, and there are a number of initiatives in the U.S. Congress that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Although the McCain-Lieberman Climate Stewardship Act failed to pass in the Senate, 43 senators did vote for it, demonstrating an increasing recognition by members of Congress that there is an urgent need to deal with the climate issue. In addition, more than 40 multinational companies have voluntarily agreed to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases and to improve the energy efficiency of their products. Several of these companies have already met or exceeded their initial targets and have saved money in doing so. Technologies exist or can be developed to cost-effectively limit the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide to between 450 and 550 parts per million (ppm), but it will take political will, enhanced research and development activities, public-private partnerships, and supporting policies to overcome barriers to the diffusion of these technologies into the marketplace. A number of countries, including the United States, have committed themselves to developing climate-friendly technologies, but the level of investment must be substantially increased. The Kyoto Protocol needs to be ratified, and the United States needs to take meaningful actions to reduce its greenhouse gas concentrations. Governments should then consider setting a long-term target based either on a greenhouse gas stabilization level (between 450 and 550 ppm) or on limits for both the absolute magnitude of global temperature change (less than 2 to 3°C) and the rate of temperature change (less than 0.2°C per decade). A series of intermediate targets can then be developed to involve developing countries in an equitable manner. The need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions offers a unique opportunity to modernize energy systems and enhance competitiveness in a globalized world.