cssi/SciSciGPT-SciSciNet huggingface dataset:
MMC-Based Distributed Maximum Power Point Tracking for Photovoltaic Systems

This paper proposes a novel topology for grid connected photovoltaic (PV) system based on modular multilevel converter (MMC). In this topology, a PV array is connected to capacitors of each submodule (SM) of the MMC through a DCDC boost converter with maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control. This topology will maximize the efficiency of the system in the case of partial shading conditions, as it can regulate the SM capacitor voltages independently from each other to realize distributed MPPT. A model predictive control is used to track the AC output current, balance the SMs capacitor voltages, and to mitigate the circulating current. The proposed PV generation topology with 7 level MMC system validity has been verified by simulations via MATLAB/Simulink toolbox under normal operation, partial shading and PV array failure.
An Integrated Platform for Collaborative Data Analytics

While collaboration among data scientists is a key to organizational productivity, data analysts face significant barriers to achieving this end, including data sharing, accessing and configuring the required computational environment, and a unified method of sharing knowledge. Each of these barriers to collaboration is related to the fundamental question of knowledge management “how can organizations use knowledge more effectively?”. In this paper, we consider the problem of knowledge management in collaborative data analytics and present ShareAL, an integrated knowledge management platform, as a solution to that problem. The ShareAL platform consists of three core components: a full stack web application, a dashboard for analyzing streaming data and a High Performance Computing (HPC) cluster for performing real time analysis. Prior research has not applied knowledge management to collaborative analytics or developed a platform with the same capabilities as ShareAL. ShareAL overcomes the barriers data scientists face to collaboration by providing intuitive sharing of data and analytics via the web application, a shared computing environment via the HPC cluster and knowledge sharing and collaboration via a real time messaging application.
Changes in the Structure of Earnings During the Polish Transition

Abstract We document changes in the structure of earnings during the economic transition in Poland. We find that inequality in labor earnings increased substantially from 1988 to 1996. A common view is that the reallocation of workers from a public sector with a compressed wage distribution, to a private sector with much higher wage inequality, accounts for the bulk of increased earnings inequality during transition (see, e.g., the models of Aghion and Commander (1999) [Aghion, Philippe, Commander, Simon, 1999. On the dynamics of inequality in the transition. Economics of Transition 7, 275–2898.] and Commander and Tolstopiatenko (1998) [Commander, Simon, Tolstopiatenko, Andrei, 1998. The role of unemployment and restructuring in the transition. In: Commander, Simon (Ed.), Enterprise Restructuring and Unemployment in Models of Transition. The World Bank, Washington, pp. 169–192.]). However, our decomposition of the sources of the increase in inequality suggests that this compositional effect accounts for only 39% of the increase. Fully 52% of the increase is due to the increase in the variance of wages within sectors. That is, earnings inequality within both the private and public sectors grew substantially, and by similar amounts. This is consistent with prior work suggesting that even state-owned enterprises in Poland moved towards competitive wage setting as they restructured (see, e.g., Pinto et al. (1993) [Pinto, Brian, Belka, Marek, Krajewski, Stefan, 1993. Transforming state enterprises in Poland: evidence on adjustment by manufacturing firms. Brookings papers on Economic Activity, 213-70.] Commander and Dhar (1998) [Commander, Simon, Dhar, Sumana, 1998. Enterprises in the Polish transition. In Simon Commander (Ed.), Enterprise Restructuring and Unemployment in Models of Transition. The World Bank, Washington, pp. 109-142.]). A substantial part of the increase in earnings inequality was between group, due largely to increased education premiums. However, changes in inequality within education–experience–gender groups account for about 60 percent of the increase in overall earnings inequality. The increases in within-group inequality were very different across skill groups, with much larger increases for highly educated workers. These patterns hold in both the private and public sectors, although increases in education premiums were somewhat greater in the private sector.
Abelian Topological Order on Lattice Enriched with Electromagnetic Background

In topological phases of matter, the interplay between intrinsic topological order and global symmetry is an interesting task. In the study of topological orders with discrete global symmetry, an important systematic approach is the construction of exactly soluble lattice models. However, for continuous global symmetry, in particular the electromagnetic U(1), the lattice approach has been less systematically developed. In this paper, we introduce a systematic construction of effective theories for a large class of abelian topological orders on three-dimensional spacetime lattice with electromagnetic background. We discuss the associated topological properties, including the Hall conductivity and the spin-c nature of the electromagnetic background. Some of these effective spacetime lattice theories can be readily mapped to microscopic Hamiltonians on spatial lattice; others may also shed light on their possible microscopic Hamiltonian realizations. Our approach is based on the gauging of 1-form $$\mathbb {Z}$$ symmetries. Our construction is naturally related to the continuum path integral of (doubled) U(1) Chern–Simons theory, through the latter’s formal description in terms of Deligne–Beilinson cohomology; when the global symmetry is dropped, our construction can be reduced to the Dijkgraaf–Witten model of associated abelian topological orders, as expected.
The sections of the Weyl group

We compute all sections of the finite Weyl group, that satisfy the braid relations, in the case that G is an almost-simple connected reductive group defined over an algebraically closed field. We then demonstrate that this set of sections has an interesting partially ordered structure, and also give some applications.
Trajectory of left ventricular ejection fraction among individuals eligible for implantable cardioverter‐defibrillator

OBJECTIVE Examine the trajectory of left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) among patients eligible for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. BACKGROUND EF is the cornerstone criterion for ICD therapy, but the risk of sudden cardiac death remains after an improvement in EF. METHODS We examined the trajectory of EF among 1178 participants of the Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure Trial (SCD-HeFT) who had three or more assessments of EF, at least 90 days apart. A follow-up EF > 35% or >10% absolute increase in EF from baseline were examined as the criteria for EF improvement. RESULTS At first follow-up, 381 (32%) patients had an improvement of EF to >35%. However, EF had returned back to ≤35% in 109 (27%) of these patients at second follow-up. Similarly, 446 (38%) patients experienced a >10% improvement in EF at first follow-up, but 109 (24%) of these had a subsequent >10% decrease in EF at the second follow-up. Of the 32 patients with normalized EF (≥55%) at first follow-up, 18 (56%) had a subsequent >10% decrease in EF. The fluctuation in EF was present in both ischemic and nonischemic cardiomyopathy but a higher proportion of patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathy had an improvement in EF to >35% at first follow-up compared to those with ischemic cardiomyopathy (38% vs. 27%, p = < .0001). CONCLUSION There is substantial fluctuation of EF among patients who are eligible for ICD therapy.
The Trade Consequences of Maritime Insecurity: Evidence from Somali Piracy

In the past decade, pirates from Somalia have carried out thousands of attacks on cargo ships sailing through the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, causing what others have identied as signicant damage to maritime trade. In this paper, we use variations in the spread and intensity of Somali piracy to estimate its eect on the volume of international trade. By comparing trade volume changes along shipping routes located in pirate waters to those that are not, we estimate that Somali piracy reduced bilateral trade passing through the Gulf of Aden by 1.7-1.9 percent per year from 2000 to 2010. In addition, we nd larger reductions for trade in bulk commodities, which are generally shipped by sea and are more likely to fall prey to piracy attacks. While our estimates suggest that the trade costs of piracy are much lower than what has been suggested in the existing literature, we nd that they remain signicant and unevenly distributed, with ve countries and the European Union shouldering 70% of the total costs.
Childhood neighborhood conditions and the persistence of adult income

Abstract Economists have long been interested on the role of childhood neighborhood and family characteristics in explaining adult income, with some emphasizing the importance of family over neighborhood characteristics in determining income. However, they seldom include persistence as a factor that can influence income, and the few that do always treat it as homogeneous across individuals. In spite of this, the importance of persistence should not be undermined because it is vital to understanding long term effect of variables on income, in addition to explaining the likelihood of a person to be trapped in a low income trap and the time taken to recover from a negative shock. As an extension to this literature, I add individual-level heterogeneity in income persistence and show it can be affected by childhood neighborhood variables. By applying a two-step correlated random effects GMM on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics dataset, I find that persistence is a significant factor in determining adult income, with average being about 0.38. However, I find that the poor have a higher persistence of income than the rich, implying that the poor are affected more when the macroeconomy changes. The poor also take a longer time to recover from a negative shock. Furthermore, I find that improving childhood neighborhood, especially neighborhood idleness rate, can help to increase adult income by lowering its persistence. My simulation exercise also shows that reducing idleness rate in childhood neighborhood by 1 percentage point of those earning in the bottom quartile of the income distribution can help to increase overall social welfare the most.
Does the ADA Disable the Disabled?— More Comments

This article examines how best to identify individuals with disabilities for analysis of the impact of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990. It also explores whether amending the ADA to broaden its definition of disability can be expected to improve the employment prospects of those who seek its protections. Answering these questions requires that we learn much more about the labor force participation decisions of those with disabilities. Our aim here is to encourage further consideration and analysis of these and related questions regarding the possible effects of the ADA and of other environmental factors that affect the labor force participation of those with disabilities.
Corporate Governance Reform and CEO Compensation: Intended and Unintended Consequences

Recent scandals allegedly linked to CEO compensation have brought executive compensation and perquisites to the forefront of debate about constraining executive compensation and reforming the associated corporate governance structure. We briefly describe the structure of executive compensation, and the agency theory framework that has commonly been used to conceptualize executives acting on behalf of shareholders. We detail some criticisms of executive compensation and associated ethical issues, and then discuss what previous research suggests are likely intended and unintended consequences of some widely proposed executive compensation reforms. We explicitly discuss the following recommendations for reform: require greater independence of compensation committees, require executives to hold equity in the corporation, require greater disclosure of executive compensation, increase institutional investor involvement in corporate governance (including executive compensation), and require firms to expense stock options on their income statements. We provide a brief summary discussion of ethical issues related to executive compensation, and describe possible future research.
Commercial Arbitration Agreements and the Uniform Commercial Code

Arbitration has become very important to the resolution of commercial disputes in the United States. The increasingly rapid growth in the use of commercial arbitration is almost certain to continue. Despite the trend toward judicial acceptance of arbitration, some courts misapply section 2-207 of the Uniform Commercial Code to nullify arbitration provisions in many commercial controversies. This article argues that many of the barriers to greater use of arbitration that courts draw from the Uniform Commercial Code are the result of misguided analysis. It suggests that the Code be amended to assure that courts interpret section 2-207 consistently with federal law governing arbitration in order to facilitate the continued growth of arbitration as a forum for resolving commercial disputes.
PERSONAL TAXES AND THE FAIR RATE OF RETURN DOCTRINE

E (1 eb) P = r g where E is year-end earnings per share after corporate tax and g their annual growth rate; b, annual investment expressed as a fraction of the firm's total earnings; and e, the fraction of this investment financed by retention. Due to the assumption of no personal taxation, the firm's cutoff rate of return on equity-financed incremental investment, P, is not distinguishable from the shareholders' required post-tax rate of return, r. This rate is derived from the price equation and empirically evaluated by
PLATFORM COMPETITION WITH ENDOGENOUS HOMING

We develop a model for two-sided markets with consumers and producers, who interact through a platform. Typical settings for the model are the market for smartphones with phone users, app producers, and smartphone operating systems; or the video game market with game players, video game producers, and video game consoles. Only consumers who purchase the platform can access content from the producers. Consumers are heterogeneous in their gains from the producer side; and producers are heterogeneous in their costs of bringing apps to the platform. We consider competition between two platforms that allows consumers and rms to optimize with respect to how they home, i.e. we allow both individual consumers and individual producers to multi-home or single-home depending on whether it is optimal based on their type and the pricing policies of the two platforms. This leads to multiple equilibrium allocations of consumers and rms | all of which are seen in existing markets. We then nd conditions under which a monopoly platform generates higher surplus than the two competing platforms.
Estimating production functions with robustness against errors in the proxy variables

Abstract This paper proposes a new approach to the identification and estimation of production functions. It extends the literature on the structural estimation of production functions, which dates back to the seminal work of Olley and Pakes (1996), by relaxing the scalar-unobservable assumption about the proxy variables. The key additional assumption needed in the identification argument is the existence of two conditionally independent proxy variables. The proposed generalized method of moment (GMM) estimator is flexible and straightforward to apply. The method is applied to study how rapidly firms in the Chilean food-product industry adjust their inputs in response to shocks to their productivity.
The earned income tax credit and union formation: The impact of expected spouse earnings

Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation from 2001, 2004, and 2008 and federal and state variation in earned income tax credit generosity over time, I investigate how changes in expected household earned income tax credit benefits associated with marriage affect cohabitation and marriage behavior among low-income single mothers. I simulate a marriage market to predict potential spouse earnings for a sample of single mothers in order to estimate the potential losses or gains in earned income tax credit benefits upon marriage. Using multinomial logistic regressions, I then analyze how the anticipated loss in earned income tax credit benefits upon marriage affects the likelihood of marrying or cohabiting. Results suggest that the average earned income tax credit-eligible woman can expect to lose approximately US$1,300 in earned income tax credit benefits in the year following marriage, or about half of pre-marriage benefits. Single mothers who expect to lose earned income tax credit benefits upon marriage are 2.5 percentage points less likely to marry their partners and 2.5 percentage points more likely to cohabit compared to single mothers who expect no change or to gain earned income tax credit benefits upon marriage. Despite recent policy efforts to reduce the size of the marriage penalty embedded in the earned income tax credit structure, these results suggest that the earned income tax credit still creates distortions in marriage and cohabitation decisions among low-income single mothers.
Refinancing pressure and earnings management: Evidence from changes in short-term debt and discretionary accruals

Abstract In this paper, we investigate whether refinancing pressure leads managers to manipulate earnings. Our tests examine the relation between changes in short-term debt and discretionary accruals. We find that firms have higher discretionary accruals during periods of increasing short-term debt. We also find that this relationship is stronger for firms that ultimately obtain new loan financing. Finally, we show that the presence of investment grade debt attenuates the relationship between discretionary accruals and refinancing pressure.
An experiment on coordination in multi-candidate elections: The importance of polls and election histories

Do polls simply measure intended voter behavior or can they affect it and, thus, change election outcomes? Do candidate ballot positions or the results of previous elections affect voter behavior? We conduct several series of experimental, three-candidate elections and use the data to provide answers to these questions. In these elections, we pay subjects conditionally on election outcomes to create electorates with publicly known preferences. A majority (but less than two-thirds) of the voters are split in their preferences between two similar candidates, while a minority (but plurality) favor a third, dissimilar candidate. If all voters voted sincerely, the third candidate — a Condorcet loser — would win the elections. We find that pre-election polls significantly reduce the frequency with which the Condorcet loser wins. Further, the winning candidate is usually the majority candidate who is listed first on the poll and election ballots. The evidence also shows that a shared history enables majority voters to coordinate on one of their favored candidates in sequences of identical elections. With polls, majority-preferred candidates often alternate as election winners.
To Empower or Not to Empower Your Sales Force? An Empirical Examination of the Influence of Leadership Empowerment Behavior on Customer Satisfaction and Performance.

This research focuses on the impact of leadership empowerment behavior (LEB) on customer service satisfaction and sales performance, as mediated by salespeople's self-efficacy and adaptability. Moreover, the authors propose an interactive relationship whereby LEB will be differentially effective as a function of employees' empowerment readiness. The authors' hypotheses are tested using survey data from a sample of 231 salespeople in the pharmaceutical field, along with external ratings of satisfaction from 864 customers and archival sales performance information. Results indicated that contrary to popular belief, employees with low levels of product/industry knowledge and low experience benefit the most from leadership behaviors that are empowering, whereas high-knowledge and experienced employees reap no clear benefit. The authors conclude with directions for future research and application.
The political consequences of uninformed voters

Abstract Americans fail to meet the democratic ideal of an informed electorate, and the consequences of this political ignorance are a topic of significant scholarly debate. In two independent settings, we experimentally test the effect of political information on citizens' attitudes toward the major parties in the U.S. When uninformed citizens receive political information, they systematically shift their political preferences away from the Republican Party and toward the Democrats. A lack of knowledge on the policy positions of the parties significantly hinders the ability of low-socioeconomic-status citizens to translate their preferences into partisan opinions and vote choices. As a result, American public opinion—and potentially election results and public policy as a result—is significantly different from the counterfactual world in which all voters are informed.
An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones

Abstract In the context of a flexible-price monetary exchange-rate model and the assumption of uncovered interest parity, we obtain a measure of the fundamental determinant of exchange rates. Daily data for the European Monetary System are used to explore the importance of nonlinearities in the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals; data from three other exchange-rate systems are also considered. Many implications of existing “target-zone” exchange-rate models are tested; little support is found for existing nonlinear models of limited exchange-rate flexibility.
Regulation as the Mother of Innovation: The Case of SO2 Control*

This paper explores the relationship between government actions and innovation in an environmental control technology—sulfur dioxide (SO2) control technologies for power plants—through the use of complementary research methods. Its findings include the importance of regulation and the anticipation of regulation in stimulating invention; the greater role of regulation, as opposed to public RD the importance of regulatory stringency in determining technical pathways and stimulating collaboration; and the importance of regulatory-driven technological diffusion in contributing to operating experience and post-adoption innovation in cost and performance. A number of policy implications are drawn from this work.
A creative approach to measuring reconciliation in Rwanda

Rwanda is in a state of transition. A modern-day miracle, Rwanda's rebirth from the ruins of a hellish past has few precedents in Africa or elsewhere. After decades of division, oppression and slaughter, an ambitious agenda has been initiated to achieve social cohesion and good governance. But 18 years after the genocide, is the country any closer to being reconciled to its past? Are Rwandans reconciled within themselves? Are they on board with the lofty goal of building state institutions that govern through an 'ethnic-free' lens? These were the questions posed by the Rwandan government in 2010 when they initiated a state-wide survey based on one developed by South Africa's Institute for Justice and Reconciliation - namely, the Reconciliation Barometer.
Debunking the "End of History" Thesis for Corporate Law

In their article, “The End of History for Corporate Law,” Henry Hansmann and Reinier Kraakman proclaimed the triumph of the shareholder primacy norm over competing progressive theories of the corporation. This Article debunks Hansmann and Kraakman’s “end of history” thesis on both U.S. and Canadian corporate law grounds. A critical examination of high-profile U.S. corporate law jurisprudence indicates that the shareholder primacy norm cannot be supported, even by cases such as Dodge v. Ford and Revlon, Inc. v. MacAndrews & Forbes Holdings, Inc., which exist at the foundation of shareholder primacy arguments. Further, Canadian corporate law jurisprudence and the structure of Canadian corporate law statutes reveal the complete lack of support for shareholder primacy arguments north of the forty-ninth parallel, further impeding Hansmann and Kraakman’s claim. This state of affairs demonstrates that Hansmann and Kraakman’s “end of history” thesis is, at best, premature and, at worst,
Fiscal adjustment in EU countries: A balance sheet approach

Abstract Several European Union countries have recently implemented or are envisaging fiscal operations which improve budgetary figures but have no structural impact on government finances. We evaluate some of these measures using a balance sheet approach. In particular, we examine the degree to which reductions in government debt in EU countries has been accompanied by a decumulation of government assets. In the runup to Maastricht we find a strong correlation between changes in government liabilities and government assets, and larger declines in government assets in countries starting from higher public debt levels.
Advancing a Framework for Regulating Cryptocurrency Payments Intermediaries

This Article looks at competing models for regulating providers of services to individuals and businesses that take cryptocurrencies in payment for goods and services, including operators of online wallets and exchanges, and other cryptocurrency market intermediaries whose functions resemble “money service businesses” or “money transmission.” We conclude that, in addition to whatever “money services” or “money transmission” prudential regulation the States or federal government may adopt, the operation of wallets and exchanges requires a new commercial law that lays out rights and liabilities of cryptocurrency users in a robust and transparent fashion. We use Article 4A of the Uniform Commercial Code as a model for regulating cryptocurrency transactions in which intermediaries play a role.
d'Alembert digitized: A wave pulse method for visualizing electromagnetic waves in matter and for deriving the finite difference time domain method for numerically solving Maxwell's equations

An alternative way of visualizing electromagnetic waves in matter and of deriving the Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) method for simulating Maxwell's equations for one-dimensional systems is presented. The method uses d'Alembert's splitting of waves into forward and backward pulses of arbitrary shape and allows for grid spacing and material properties that vary with the position. Constant velocity of waves in dispersionless dielectric materials, partial reflection and transmission at boundaries between materials with different indices of refraction, and partial reflection, transmission, and attenuation through conducting materials are derived without recourse to exponential functions, trigonometric functions, or complex numbers. Placing d'Alembert's method on a grid is shown to be equivalent to the FDTD method and allows for simple and visual proof that the FDTD method is exact for dielectrics when the ratio of the spatial and temporal grid spacing is the wave speed, a straightforward way to incorporate reflectionless boundary conditions and a derivation that the FDTD method retains second-order accuracy when the grid spacing varies with the position and the material parameters make sudden jumps across layer boundaries.
The Cost of Diversity: The Diversification Discount and Inefficient Investment

We model the distortions that internal power struggles can generate in the allocation of resources between divisions of a diversified firm. The model predicts that if divisions are similar in the level of their resources and opportunities, funds will be transferred from divisions with poor opportunities to divisions with good opportunities. When diversity in resources and opportunities increases, however, resources can f low toward the most inefficient division, leading to more inefficient investment and less valuable firms. We test these predictions on a panel of diversified U.S. firms during the period from 1980 to 1993 and find evidence consistent with them. THE FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION IN THE THEORY of the firm, raised by Coase ~1937! more than 60 years ago, is how decisions taken inside a hierarchy differ from those taken in the marketplace. Coase suggested that decisions within a hierarchy are determined by power considerations rather than relative prices. If this is indeed the case, why, and when, does the hierarchy dominate the market? A major obstacle to progress in this area has been the lack of data. Data on internal decisions made by firms are generally proprietary. Even when they are available to researchers, it is difficult to find a comparable group of decisions taken in the market. A notable exception is the capital allocation decision in diversified firms. Since 1978, public U.S. companies have been forced to disclose their data on sales, profitability, and investments by major lines of business ~segments!. An analysis of a small sample of multisegment firms reveals that segments correspond, by and large, to distinct internal
Is optimism real

Is optimism real, or are optimistic forecasts just cheap talk? To help answer this question, we investigated whether optimistic predictions persist in the face of large incentives to be accurate. We asked National Football League football fans to predict the winner of a single game. Roughly half (the partisans) predicted a game involving their favorite team, and the other half (the neutrals) predicted a game involving 2 teams they were neutral about. Participants were promised either a small incentive ($5) or a large incentive ($50) for correctly predicting the game's winner. Optimism emerged even when incentives were large, as partisans were much more likely than neutrals to predict partisans' favorite teams to win. Strong optimism also emerged among participants whose responses to follow-up questions strongly suggested that they believed the predictions they made. This research supports the claim that optimism is real.
Near optimization of stochastic dynamic systems by decomposition and aggregation

The paper is concerned with the reduction of a class of stochastic optimal control problems to simpler problems by using decomposition and aggregation. Decomposition is shown to provide a good approximation when the system dynamics involve nearly decomposable matrices or variables with strong and weak interactions. Aggregation provides a good approximation if each decomposed matrix has one or more dominant eigenvalues. It is shown how one can construct nearly optimal controls for the given system from the optimal solutions of the simpler reduced problems. The results extend the corresponding results obtained (Sethi and Zhang, Journal of optimization theory and applications 1998; 99:1–22) in a deterministic environment. The results hold a significant promise in dealing with large dynamic stochastic macroeconomic problems. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The Statistical Evidence of Racial Profiling in Traffic Stops and Searches: Rethinking the Use of Statistics to Prove Discriminatory Intent

This Note summarizes and synthesizes developments in statistical analyses of racial profiling data and the legal response to the use of such methods in civil rights cases. Researchers have developed new strategies specifically designed to measure statistical associations between a driver's race and the frequency of vehicle stops and searches. Courts' responses to the use of the statistical evidence derived from these methods are varied. This Note argues that modern developments in data collection and statistical methodology to detect racial profiling support a legal rule that strong statistical associations in well-developed studies should constituteprima facie evidence sufficient to prove discriminatory intent.
LEARNING BY KNOWLEDGE‐INTENSIVE FIRMS*

Knowledge-intensive firms (KIFs) specialize in expertise, especially esoteric knowledge that few other firms possess. KIFs must keep their knowledge up-to-date, so they need to learn continually. However, their ability to satisfy clients depends on the close relations that some of KIFs' personnel develop with specific clients.
Trends in Prisoner Litigation, as the PLRA Enters Adulthood

Since the enactment of the Prison Litigation Reform Act (PLRA) in 1996, the statute's impact on jail and prison litigation has been extremely substantial. In two articles about a decade ago, I presented descriptive statistics showing the PLRA-caused decline in civil rights filings and plaintiffs' victories, and the likewise declining prevalence of court-ordered regulation of jails and prisons. More up-to-date information has not been published, so here I update those statistics for use by policymakers, judges, and other researchers, and discuss them briefly. I look in Parts I through III at damage actions, using primarily the data compiled by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts (the AO) for each federal district court case "terminated." Part I examines prisoner filings over time and by state; it demonstrates first sharp decline in both filings numbers and rates, and then a more recent plateau. There is substantial variation by state. Part II examines outcomes over time and compares outcomes in other case categories. The trends span the past 15 years: in civil rights cases brought by prisoners, government defendants are winning more cases pretrial, settling fewer matters, and going to trial less often. Those settlements that do occur are harder fought; they are finalized later in the litigation process. Plaintiffs are, correspondingly, winning and settling less often, and losing outright more often. And Part III looks at litigated damages. Because the AO’s data on damages are error-ridden, I supplement the AO database with docket-based research into individual cases. Like my similar study over 10 years ago, that research indicates that when prisoners do litigate all the way to victory, they tend to win pretty small. In Part IV, I move to the topic of injunctive prison and jail litigation — cases in which prisoner plaintiffs seek a change in policy or other aspects of prison conditions. The PLRA was motivated in large part by Republican discontent with plaintiffs' successes in such litigation, and Part IV demonstrates more comprehensively than prior data that it has succeeded in radically shrinking — but not eliminating — the coverage of such orders.
Risk management, capital structure and lending at banks

Abstract We test how active management of bank credit risk exposure through the loan sales market affects capital structure, lending, profits, and risk. We find that banks that rebalance their loan portfolio exposures by both buying and selling loans – that is, banks that use the loan sales market for risk management purposes rather than to alter their holdings of loans – hold less capital than other banks; they also make more risky loans (loans to businesses) as a percentage of total assets than other banks. Holding size, leverage and lending activities constant, banks active in the loan sales market have lower risk and higher profits than other banks. Our results suggest that banks that improve their ability to manage credit risk may operate with greater leverage and may lend more of their assets to risky borrowers. Thus, the benefits of advances in risk management in banking may be greater credit availability, rather than reduced risk in the banking system.
The Internet of Things and Wearable Technology: Addressing Privacy and Security Concerns without Derailing Innovation

This paper highlights some of the opportunities presented by the rise of the so-called Internet of Things in general and wearable technology in particular and encourages policymakers to allow these technologies to develop in a relatively unabated fashion. As with other new and highly disruptive digital technologies, however, the Internet of Things and wearable technology will challenge existing social, economic, and legal norms. In particular, these technologies raise a variety of privacy and safety concerns. The better alternative to top-down regulation is to deal with those concerns creatively as they develop, using a combination of educational efforts, technological empowerment tools, social norms, public and watchdog pressure, industry best practices and self-regulation, transparency, and targeted enforcement of existing legal standards (especially torts), as needed. This bottom-up and layered approach to dealing with problems will not preemptively suffocate technological experimentation and innovation. This paper concludes by outlining those solutions. Finally, policymakers should not forget that societal and individual adaptation will play a role here, just as it has during so many other turbulent technological transformations. JEL codes: L86, L88, L5, K13, K00, K39, O3, O31, O33, M38
Adjudicating Insurance Policy Disputes: A Critique of Professor Randall's Proposal to Abandon Contract Law

Notwithstanding an unprecedented level of consumer protection in insurance coverage disputes, Professor Susan Randall argues that judges have recently begun harming consumers by reverting to rigid contract principles that favor litigating insurance companies. Particularly, she claims that judges across the country have begun repudiating the strong, insurance-specific version of the contra proferentem doctrine; the reasonable expectations doctrine; and tort-like damages for insurer bad faith claims. Since this supposed repudiation comes in an area that, she asserts, is devoid of the freedom to contract because insurance policies are adhesive and subject to some legislatively-mandated language, Randall recommends that judges begin resolving insurance policy disputes using not contract law but the elusive goals of state legislatures as the interpretive framework. This proposal is unnecessary because both courts and legislatures have been expanding consumer protections over the last few decades. Additionally, it is dangerous because courts do not have the ability or the authority to properly weigh differing regulatory goals; further, the proposal would lead inevitably to uncertainty, transaction costs, and unnecessary litigation. Courts should ignore Professor Randall’s proposal and continue to predictably interpret insurance policies under contract law, providing a consistent adjudicatory backdrop against which legislatures can continue to regulate insurance in the public interest.
Shock from Graying: Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness

There is mounting evidence that in advanced economies, changes in monetary policy have a more benign impact on the economy—given better anchored inflation expectations and inflation being less responsive to variation in unemployment—compared with the past. We examine another aspect that could explain this empirical finding, namely the demographic shift to an older society. The paper first clarifies potential transmission channels that could explain why monetary policy effectiveness may moderate in graying societies. Then, using Bayesian estimation techniques for the USA, Canada, Japan, the UK and Germany, a weakening of monetary policy effectiveness over time with regard to unemployment and inflation is confirmed. After proving the existence of a panel co-integration relationship between ageing and a weakening of monetary policy, the study uses dynamic panel ordinary least squares techniques to attribute this weakening of monetary policy effectiveness to demographic changes. The paper concludes with policy implications. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Regulating the Political Speech of Noncharitable Exempt Organizations after Citizens United

Abstract The Supreme Court decreed in Citizens United that “[n]o sufficient governmental interest justifies limits on the political speech of nonprofit or for-profit corporations.” Yet the Internal Revenue Code imposes a variety of limits on different categories of tax exempt nonprofits, including tax exempt section 501(c)(4) entities such as Citizens United itself. Supreme Court cases predating Citizens United have justified these tax limits on the grounds that government has no duty to subsidize political speech. The key “no duty to subsidize” authority, Regan v. Taxation with Representation of Washington (TWR), proclaimed, “Both tax exemptions and tax-deductibility are a form of subsidy that is administered through the tax system.” Justice Blackmun concurred. He conceded the point, however, only because such a section 501(c)(3) organization could form a tax-exempt affiliate not subject to lobbying limits (but also not eligible for tax-deductible contributions) under section 501(c)(4). Citizens United, ...
The Limits of Econometrics: Nonparametric Estimation in Hilbert Spaces

We extend Bergstrom’s 1985 results on nonparametric (NP) estimation in Hilbert spaces to unbounded sample sets. The motivation is to seek the most general possible framework for econometrics, NP estimation with no a priori assumptions on the functional relations nor on the observed data. In seeking the boundaries of the possible, however, we run against a sharp dividing line, which defines a necessary and sufficient condition for NP estimation. We identify this condition somewhat surprisingly with a classic statistical assumption on the relative likelihood of bounded and unbounded events (DeGroot, 2004). Other equivalent conditions are found in other fields: decision theory and choice under uncertainty (monotone continuity axiom (Arrow, 1970), insensitivity to rare events (Chichilnisky, 2000), and dynamic growth models (dictatorship of the present; Chichilnisky, 1996). When the crucial condition works, NP estimation can be extended to the sample space R + . Otherwise the estimators, which are based on Fourier coefficients, do not converge: the underlying distributions are shown to have “heavy tails” and to contain purely finitely additive measures. Purely finitely additive measures are not constructible, and their existence has been shown to be equivalent to the axiom of choice in mathematics. Statistics and econometrics involving purely finitely additive measures are still open issues, which suggests the current limits of econometrics.
Reassessing the ins and outs of unemployment

Abstract This paper uses readily accessible aggregate time series to measure the probability that an employed worker becomes unemployed and the probability that an unemployed worker finds a job, the ins and outs of unemployment. Since 1948, the job finding probability has accounted for three-quarters of the fluctuations in the unemployment rate in the United States and the employment exit probability for one-quarter. Fluctuations in the employment exit probability are quantitatively irrelevant during the last two decades. Using the underlying microeconomic data, the paper shows that these results are not due to compositional changes in the pool of searching workers, nor are they due to movements of workers in and out of the labor force. These results contradict the conventional wisdom that has guided the development of macroeconomic models of the labor market since 1990.
The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies

Abstract Many studies have replicated the finding that the forward rate is a biased predictor of the future change in the spot exchange rate. Usually the forward discount actually points in the wrong direction. But, at least until recently, those studies applied only to advanced economies and major currencies. We apply the same tests to a sample of 14 emerging market currencies. We find a smaller bias than for advanced country currencies. The coefficient is on average positive, i.e., the forward discount at least points in the right direction. It is never significantly less than zero. To us this suggests that a time-varying exchange risk premium may not be the explanation for traditional findings of bias. The reasoning is that emerging markets are probably riskier; yet we find that the bias in their forward rates is smaller. Emerging market currencies probably have more easily-identified trends of depreciation than currencies of advanced countries.
Why do firms train? : theory and evidence

This paper offers a theory of training whereby workers do not pay for the general training they receive. The superior information of the current employer regarding its employees' abilities relative to other firms creates ex post monopsony power, and encourages this employer to provide and pay for training, even if these skills are general. The model can lead to multiple equlibria. In one equilibrium quits are endogenously high, and as a result employers have limited monopsony power and provide little training, while in another equilibrium quits are low and training is high. Using microdata on German apprentices, we show that the predictions of our model receive some support from the data.
The 1971–1974 controls program and the price level: An econometric post-mortem

Abstract This paper provides new empirical evidence on the effects of the Nixon wage-price controls on the price level. The major new wrinkle is that the controls are created as a quantitative (rather than just a qualitative) phenomenon through the use of a specially-constructed series indicating the fraction of the economy that was controlled. According to the estimates, by February 1974 controls had lowered the non-food non-energy price level by 3–4 percent. After that point, and especially after controls ended in April 1974, a period of rapid ‘catch up’ inflation eroded the gains that had been achieved, leaving the price level from zero to 2 percent below what it would have been in the absence of controls. The dismantling of controls can thus account for most the burst of ‘double digit’ inflation in non-food and non-energy prices during 1974.
The Labor Market for Bankers and Regulators

We propose a labor market model in which agents with heterogenous ability levels choose to work as bankers or as financial regulators. When workers extract intrinsic benefits from working in regulation (such as public-sector motivation or human capital accumulation), our model jointly predicts that bankers are, on average, more skilled than regulators and their compensation is more sensitive to performance. During financial booms, banks draw the best workers away from the regulatory sector and misbehavior increases. In a dynamic extension of our model, young regulators accumulate human capital and the best ones switch to banking in mid-career.
Should Tort Damages be Multiplied

The notion that damages should be multiplied by the reciprocal of the probability of punishment is one of the basic lessons of the law and economics literature. However, the simple "1/p " multiplier turns out be inapplicable in the civil damages setting. The multiplier that brings about first-best deterrence must be chosen by striking a balance between the supply of lawsuits and the need to internalize costs. Moreover, given the costs of litigation, a multiplier that minimizes overall social costs (in contrast to achieving first-best deterrence) may need to be set at a level that effectively bars many claims. This article derives optimal damage multipliers for a costly civil litigation system and examines the conflicting implications of deterrence and social cost minimization as objectives in the design of an optimal multiplier. An empirical application suggests that the first-best deterrence multiplier for the tort system is roughly equal to two. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.